Variable effects of climate change on six species of North American birds

Many recent studies have shown that birds are advancing their laying date in response to long-term increases in spring temperatures. These studies have been conducted primarily in Europe and at local scales. If climate change is a large-scale phenomenon, then we should see responses at larger scales and in other regions. We examined the effects of long-term temperature change on the laying dates and clutch sizes of six ecologically diverse species of North American birds using 50 years of nest record data. As predicted, laying dates for most (four of six) species were earlier when spring temperatures were warmer. Over the long-term, laying dates advanced over time for two species (red-winged blackbirds, Agelaius phoeniceus and eastern bluebirds, Sialia sialis). Laying date of song sparrows (Melospiza melodia) also advanced with increasing temperature when the analysis was restricted to eastern populations. Neither laying date nor clutch sizes changed significantly over time in the remaining species (American coot, Fulica americana, killdeer, Charadrius vociferous, and American robin, Turdus migratorius), an unsurprising result given the lack of increase in temperatures over time at nest locations of these species. This study indicates that the relationship between climate change and breeding in birds is variable within and among species. In large-scale analyses of North American birds, four of seven species have shown advances in laying dates with increasing temperature (including song sparrows in the east). These variable responses within and among species highlight the need for more detailed studies across large spatial scales.     

Group-foraging is not associated with longevity in North American birds

Group-foraging is common in many animal taxa and is thought to offer protection against predators and greater foraging efficiency. Such benefits may have driven evolutionary transitions from solitary to group-foraging. Greater protection against predators and greater access to resources should reduce extrinsic sources of mortality and thus select for higher longevity according to life-history theory. I assessed the association between group-foraging and longevity in a sample of 421 North American birds. Taking into account known correlates of longevity, such as age at first reproduction and body mass, foraging group size was not correlated with maximum longevity, with and without phylogenetic correction. However, longevity increased with body mass in non-passerine birds. The results suggest that the hypothesized changes in predation risk with group size may not correlate with mortality rate in foraging birds.     

Variable shifts in spring and autumn migration phenology in North American songbirds associated with climate change

Monitoring studies find that the timing of spring bird migration has advanced in recent decades, especially in Europe. Results for autumn migration have been mixed. Using data from Powdermill Nature Reserve, a banding station in western Pennsylvania, USA, we report an analysis of migratory timing in 78 songbird species from 1961 to 2006. Spring migration became significantly earlier over the 46-year period, and autumn migration showed no overall change. There was much variation among species in phenological change, especially in autumn. Change in timing was unrelated to summer range (local vs. northern breeders) or the number of broods per year, but autumn migration became earlier in neotropical migrants and later in short-distance migrants. The migratory period for many species lengthened because late phases of migration remained unchanged or grew later as early phases became earlier. There was a negative correlation between spring and autumn in long-term change, and this caused dramatic adjustments in the amount of time between migrations: the intermigratory periods of 10 species increased or decreased by > 15 days. Year-to-year changes in timing were correlated with local temperature (detrended) and, in autumn, with a regional climate index (detrended North Atlantic Oscillation). These results illustrate a complex and dynamic annual cycle in songbirds, with responses to climate change differing among species and migration seasons.     

Implications of climate change for North American wood warblers (Parulidae)

Since 1912, Neotropical–Nearctic migrant birds may now have up to 20 fewer days to travel between Southern Illinois, where spring is arriving later, and Northern Minnesota, where spring is arriving earlier, to exploit optimal habitat conditions (expanding leaves and caterpillar activity) for refueling and breeding. As case studies of the effect of climate change on bird migration, I analyzed two long‐term data sets of arrival times for eight species of northern breeding migratory wood warblers (Parulidae) gathered over a 100 year period in east‐central Illinois (IL, USA) and a 40 year period in western Minnesota (MN, USA). Six (IL) and seven (MN) of the wood warbler species showed no significant tendency to migrate earlier in response to earlier springs in their breeding range. These results suggest that climate change may force many species of long‐distance migratory songbirds to become uncoupled in the spring from their food resources that are driven by temperature.     

The impact of climate change on birds

Weather is of major importance for the population dynamics of birds, but the implications of climate change have only recently begun to be addressed. There is already compelling evidence that birds have been affected by recent climate changes. This review suggests that although there is a substantial body of evidence for changes in the phenology of birds, particularly of the timing of migration and of nesting, the consequences of these responses for a species' population dynamics is still an area requiring in-depth research. The potential for phenological miscuing (responding inappropriately to climate change, including a lack of response) and for phenological disjunction (in which a bird species becomes out of synchrony with its environment) are beginning to be demonstrated, and are also important areas for further research. The study of climatically induced distributional change is currently at a predictive modelling stage, and will need to develop methods for testing these predictions. Overall, there is a range of intrinsic and extrinsic factors that could potentially inhibit adaptation to climate change and these are a high priority for research.     

Divergence and diversification in North American Psoraleeae (Fabaceae) due to climate change

Background  

Past studies in the legume family (Fabaceae) have uncovered several evolutionary trends including differential mutation and diversification rates across varying taxonomic levels. The legume tribe Psoraleeae is shown herein to exemplify these trends at the generic and species levels. This group includes a sizable diversification within North America dated at approximately 6.3 million years ago with skewed species distribution to the most recently derived genus, Pediomelum, suggesting a diversification rate shift. We estimate divergence dates of North American (NAm) Psoraleeae using Bayesian MCMC sampling in BEAST based on eight DNA regions (ITS, waxy, matK, trnD-trnT, trnL-trnF, trnK, trnS-trnG, and rpoB-trnC). We also test the hypothesis of a diversification rate shift within NAm Psoraleeae using topological and temporal methods. We investigate the impact of climate change on diversification in this group by (1) testing the hypothesis that a shift from mesic to xeric habitats acted as a key innovation and (2) investigating diversification rate shifts along geologic time, discussing the impact of Quaternary climate oscillations on diversification.     

Ecophysiological constraints shape autumn migratory response to climate change in the North American field sparrow

Our ability to accurately forecast species' geographical responses to climate change requires knowledge of the proximate and ultimate drivers of their distribution. Here, we consider the ecophysiological and demographic determinants of the distribution of a partial migrant, the North American field sparrow, Spizella pusilla. From 1940 to 1963, the field sparrow extended its winter northern range margin 222km polewards. Such expansion was coincident with not only a geographical expansion into suitable breeding habitats, but also a decrease in mean abundance across sites occupied during the winter surveys. Combined, these trends suggest that declining populations along the expansion front either stopped migrating or altered their autumn migration. The poleward expansion was not coincident with climatically induced decreases in peak metabolic energy demand, but it did track increases in ecosystem net primary productivity. After 1963, the species' lower lethal temperature prevented further poleward movement. These findings show how different ecophysiological constraints can interact to change migration and distribution in a demographically declining species.     

A climate change vulnerability assessment of California's at-risk birds

Conservationists must develop new strategies and adapt existing tools to address the consequences of anthropogenic climate change. To support statewide climate change adaptation, we developed a framework for assessing climate change vulnerability of California's at-risk birds and integrating it into the existing California Bird Species of Special Concern list. We defined climate vulnerability as the amount of evidence that climate change will negatively impact a population. We quantified climate vulnerability by scoring sensitivity (intrinsic characteristics of an organism that make it vulnerable) and exposure (the magnitude of climate change expected) for each taxon. Using the combined sensitivity and exposure scores as an index, we ranked 358 avian taxa, and classified 128 as vulnerable to climate change. Birds associated with wetlands had the largest representation on the list relative to other habitat groups. Of the 29 state or federally listed taxa, 21 were also classified as climate vulnerable, further raising their conservation concern. Integrating climate vulnerability and California's Bird Species of Special Concern list resulted in the addition of five taxa and an increase in priority rank for ten. Our process illustrates a simple, immediate action that can be taken to inform climate change adaptation strategies for wildlife.     

Comprehensive DNA barcode coverage of North American birds

DNA barcoding seeks to assemble a standardized reference library for DNA-based identification of eukaryotic species. The utility and limitations of this approach need to be tested on well-characterized taxonomic assemblages. Here we provide a comprehensive DNA barcode analysis for North American birds including 643 species representing 93% of the breeding and pelagic avifauna of the USA and Canada. Most (94%) species possess distinct barcode clusters, with average neighbour-joining bootstrap support of 98%. In the remaining 6%, barcode clusters correspond to small sets of closely related species, most of which hybridize regularly. Fifteen (2%) currently recognized species are comprised of two distinct barcode clusters, many of which may represent cryptic species. Intraspecific variation is weakly related to census population size and species age. This study confirms that DNA barcoding can be effectively applied across the geographical and taxonomic expanse of North American birds. The consistent finding of constrained intraspecific mitochondrial variation in this large assemblage of species supports the emerging view that selective sweeps limit mitochondrial diversity.     

气候变化对鸟类影响的研究进展

气候变化对生物多样性的影响已成为热点问题.本文以鸟类为研究对象,根据鸟类受气候变化影响的最新研究成果,综述了气候变化对鸟类的分布、物候和种群等方面的影响.结果表明,在气候变化影响下,鸟类分布向高纬度或高海拔区移动,速度比以往加快,繁殖地和非繁殖地的分布移动变化并不相同,并且多数分布范围缩小,物候期发生复杂变化,种群数量下降明显.文章还讨论了该领域主要的预测和评估方法,以及进化适应等生物因素对气候变化预测结果的影响,除了以往单一的相关性模型外,目前应用最多的是集成模型,而未来最具发展潜力的是机理模型.进化适应方面的研究近来取得新进展,证实了生物个体积极应对气候变化影响的事实,从而对人为模型预测的准确性带来挑战.文章最后进行了总结和展望,结合国外研究经验和我国实际情况,提出一些建议:由于气候变化的影响及其研究是长期性的,从而对鸟类的历史监测数据提出很高的要求,当前我国急需建立一套长期、全面和可靠的鸟类数据监测系统;此外,人们需要综合评估现有各种预测模型的可靠性,在此基础上探索新的研究方法.     

Bird migration times, climate change, and changing population sizes

Past studies of bird migration times have shown great variation in migratory responses to climate change. We used 33 years of bird capture data (1970–2002) from Manomet, Massachusetts to examine variation in spring migration times for 32 species of North American passerines. We found that changes in first arrival dates – the unit of observation used in most studies of bird migration times – often differ dramatically from changes in the mean arrival date of the migration cohort as a whole. In our study, the earliest recorded springtime arrival date for each species occurred 0.20 days later each decade. In contrast, the mean arrival dates for birds of each species occurred 0.78 days earlier each decade. The difference in the two trends was largely explained by declining migration cohort sizes, a factor not examined in many previous studies. We found that changes in migration cohort or population sizes may account for a substantial amount of the variation in previously documented changes in migration times. After controlling for changes in migration cohort size, we found that climate variables, migration distance, and date of migration explained portions of the variation in migratory changes over time. In particular, short-distance migrants appeared to respond to changes in temperature, while mid-distance migrants responded particularly strongly to changes in the Southern Oscillation Index. The migration times of long-distance migrants tended not to change over time. Our findings suggest that previously reported changes in migration times may need to be reinterpreted to incorporate changes in migration cohort sizes.     

Phenotypic flexibility of body composition associated with seasonal acclimatization in passerine birds

Improved winter cold tolerance is widespread among small birds overwintering in cold climates and is associated with improved shivering endurance and elevated summit metabolic rate (M_sum). Phenotypic flexibility resulting in elevated M_sum could result from either increased skeletal muscle mass (perhaps with support from similar adjustments in “nutritional organs”) and/or cellular metabolic intensity. We investigated seasonal changes in body composition of three species of passerine birds resident in cold winter climates, all of which show large seasonal variations in M_sum (>25%); white-breasted nuthatch (Sitta carolinensis), black-capped chickadee (Poecile atricapillus), and house sparrow (Passer domesticus). All three species displayed significant winter increases in pectoralis and heart masses, and supracoracoideus mass also increased in winter chickadees. Gizzard mass increased in winter for all three species, but masses of other nutritional organs did not vary consistently with season. These data suggest that winter increases in pectoralis and heart masses are important contributors to elevated thermogenic capacity and cold tolerance, but seasonal variation in nutritional organ masses, other than gizzard, which is likely associated with dietary changes, are not universally associated with seasonal phenotypes. The winter increases in pectoralis and heart masses are consistent with data from other small passerines showing marked seasonal changes in cold tolerance and support the Variable Maximum Model of seasonal phenotypic flexibility, where physiological adjustments that promote improved cold tolerance, also result in elevated M_sum.     

Changes in potential habitat of 147 North American breeding bird species in response to redistribution of trees and climate following predicted climate change

Mounting evidence shows that organisms have already begun to respond to global climate change. Advances in our knowledge of how climate shapes species distributional patterns has helped us better understand the response of birds to climate change. However, the distribution of birds across the landscape is also driven by biotic and abiotic components, including habitat characteristics. We therefore developed statistical models of 147 bird species distributions in the eastern United States, using climate, elevation, and the distributions of 39 tree species to predict contemporary bird distributions. We used randomForest, a robust regression‐based decision tree ensemble method to predict contemporary bird distributions. These models were then projected onto three models of climate change under high and low emission scenarios for both climate and the projected change in suitable habitat for the 39 tree species. The resulting bird species models indicated that breeding habitat will decrease by at least 10% for 61–79 species (depending on model and emissions scenario) and increase by at least 10% for 38–52 species in the eastern United States. Alternatively, running the species models using only climate/elevation (omitting tree species), we found that the predictive power of these models was significantly reduced (p<0.001). When these climate/elevation‐only models were projected onto the climate change scenarios, the change in suitable habitat was more extreme in 60% of the species. In the end, the strong associations with vegetation tempers a climate/elevation‐only response to climate change and indicates that refugia of suitable habitat may persist for these bird species in the eastern US, even after the redistribution of tree species. These results suggest the importance of interacting biotic processes and that further fine‐scale research exploring how climate change may disrupt species specific requirements is needed.     

Rates of vegetation change associated with prairie dog (Cynomys ludovicianus) grazing in North American mixed-grass prairie

A prairie dog (Cynomys ludovicianus) colony with a known history of habitation was studied to quantify the effects of herbivory on plant species composition, dominance, stature and diversity in a North American mixedgrass prairie. Gradient analysis was used to quantify the relationship between plant community structure, prairie dog density, burrow density and habitation history and to document community-level responses of plants subjected to heavy grazing pressure. The results quantify the type, rate and extent of change which plant populations and communities may undergo in response to the differential grazing of plants variously tolerant of defoliation.Detrended correspondence analysis indicated that 69% of the between-sample floristic variance on the site was attributable to prairie dog habitation. Perennial grasses were rapidly displaced from the site within 3 yr of colonization and were replaced by annual forbs. The net result was an increase in species richness and diversity on the prairie dog colony. Within the colony, however, the number of species was more a function of stand size than colonization history.Significant decreases in canopy stature after 2 yr of habitation resulted from replacement of mid-height grass species by shortgrass species and forbs. In addition, there was a shift from tall growth forms of off-colony species to dwarf growth forms of the same species on the colony. Decreases in litter and increases in bare soil cover were substantial during the first 2 yr of habitation but changed little thereafter.Abbreviations WCC Wind Cave Canyon - DCA Detrended Correspondence Analysis     

Species richness of migratory birds is influenced by global climate change

Aim  Global climate change is increasingly influencing ecosystems. Long-term effects on the species richness and composition of ecological communities have been predicted using modelling approaches but, so far, hardly demonstrated in the field. Here, we test whether changes in the composition of bird communities have been influenced by recent climate change.
Location  Europe.
Methods  We focus on the proportion of migratory and resident bird species because these groups are expected to respond differently to climatic change. We used the spatial relationship between climatic factors and bird communities in Europe to predict changes in 21 European bird communities under recent climate change.
Results  Observed changes corresponded significantly to predicted changes and could not be explained by the effects of spatial autocorrelation. Alternative factors such as changes in land use were tested in a first approximation as well but no effects were found.
Main conclusions  This study demonstrates that global climate change has already influenced the species richness and composition of European bird communities.     

The impacts of climate change on the annual cycles of birds

Organisms living today are descended from ancestors that experienced considerable climate change in the past. However, they are currently presented with many new, man-made challenges, including rapid climate change. Migration and reproduction of many avian species are controlled by endogenous mechanisms that have been under intense selection over time to ensure that arrival to and departure from breeding grounds is synchronized with moderate temperatures, peak food availability and availability of nesting sites. The timing of egg laying is determined, usually by both endogenous clocks and local factors, so that food availability is near optimal for raising young. Climate change is causing mismatches in food supplies, snow cover and other factors that could severely impact successful migration and reproduction of avian populations unless they are able to adjust to new conditions. Resident (non-migratory) birds also face challenges if precipitation and/or temperature patterns vary in ways that result in mismatches of food and breeding. Predictions that many existing climates will disappear and novel climates will appear in the future suggest that communities will be dramatically restructured by extinctions and changes in range distributions. Species that persist into future climates may be able to do so in part owing to the genetic heritage passed down from ancestors who survived climate changes in the past.     

Diet niche relationships among North American grassland and shrubsteppe birds

Summary We consider the dietary relationships of the numerically dominant breeding bird species in four North American grassland/shrubsteppe habitats, sampled over 2–3 consecutive years. Overall, the diets of these species contained primarily insects: orthopterans comprised 29% of the diet biomass, coleopterans 24%, and lepidopteran larvae 23%, while seeds contributed 15% of the average diet. These diets varied substantially, however, and we evaluated several aspects of this variation. Intersexual differences in diets within a species were few, despite the occurrence of significant sexual size dimorphism in several species. For many species, however, there were substantial shifts in dietary composition between years at a given location; overall, the average between-year similarity of species' dietary composition was 70%. Different species exhibited rather different diet patterns. Horned Larks were relatively omnivorous, had broad diet composition niches, and varied considerably in diets between different locations. Meadowlarks were also broad-niched and geographically variable in their diets, but were the most highly carnivorous of the species we considered. Dietary niche breadths of Grasshopper Sparrows were intermediate, but diet composition was rather stable, both between years and between locations. Chestnut-collared Longspurs exhibited narrow diet niches, but substantial annual variation: each year this species apparently exploited a different but limited set of prey types rather heavily. Larger avian predators generally consumed a broader array of functional groups of prey, but did not differ in the taxonomic variety of their diets from small birds. Variation in diet composition between individuals within local populations was considerable; in most species, an individual contained on the average 30–40% of the prey taxa represented in entire population smaples.Patterns of dietary overlap among species were quite inconsistent from year to year at most locations, although at the shrubsteppe site overlap among all species present was consistently quite high. Relatively few cooccurring species pairs exhibited low diet overlap. The degree of diet niche overlap was unrelated to body size differences of the birds, despite as much as six-fold differences in weight among some coexisting species. Relationships of the bird species on another dimension of the trophic niche, prey size, also differed substantially between sites and years. The ranking of co-occurring species by the mean sizes of the prey they consumed generally did not parallel their rankings by body sizes, and in some cases the smallest and the largest species present ate prey of similar sizes. At the shrubsteppe site, all the breeding species exhibited quite similar frequency distributions of prey sizes in their diets.As species number and diversity increased in the breeding avifaunas, diet niche breadths generally decreased, species packing by prey size decreased, and diet composition niche overlap remained relatively unchanged. These trends are in at least partial agreement with predictions of diffuse competition theory, but the patterns were derived from broad inter-site comparisons of overall site averages, and the relationships generally did not hold within local assemblages of species. In general, our attempts to match values of dietary niche features with site characteristics failed to demonstrate close agreement with the predictions of prevailing ecological theory based upon assumptions of resource limitation and competition. Instead, our findings seem generally most consistent with the suggestion that food is not normally limiting to bird populations in these systems, and individuals and populations are exploiting the food resources in an opportunistic fashion, which leads to considerable individual, between-year, and between-location variation in diet compositions and interspecific overlaps.Our attempts to discern clear relationships that accord with theoretical expectations in these avian assemblages are thwarted by our lack of detailed information on the resource base and by the lack of clear tests that will separate alternative hypotheses of community organization and structuring. We suggest that these complications may compromise the findings of many community studies.     

Phenology of two interdependent traits in migratory birds in response to climate change

In migratory birds, arrival date and hatching date are two key phenological markers that have responded to global warming. A body of knowledge exists relating these traits to evolutionary pressures. In this study, we formalize this knowledge into general mathematical assumptions, and use them in an ecoevolutionary model. In contrast to previous models, this study novelty accounts for both traits—arrival date and hatching date—and the interdependence between them, revealing when one, the other or both will respond to climate. For all models sharing the assumptions, the following phenological responses will occur. First, if the nestling-prey peak is late enough, hatching is synchronous with, and arrival date evolves independently of, prey phenology. Second, when resource availability constrains the length of the pre-laying period, hatching is adaptively asynchronous with prey phenology. Predictions for both traits compare well with empirical observations. In response to advancing prey phenology, arrival date may advance, remain unchanged, or even become delayed; the latter occurring when egg-laying resources are only available relatively late in the season. The model shows that asynchronous hatching and unresponsive arrival date are not sufficient evidence that phenological adaptation is constrained. The work provides a framework for exploring microevolution of interdependent phenological traits.