Evaluating methods to quantify spatial variation in the velocity of biological invasions

Invading species rarely spread homogeneously through a landscape and invasion patterns typically display irregular frontal boundaries as the invasion progresses through space. Those irregular patterns are generally produced by local environmental factors that may slow or accelerate movement of the frontal boundary. While there is an abundant literature on species distribution modelling methods that quantify local suitability for species establishment, comparatively few studies have examined methods for measuring the local velocity of invasions that can then be statistically analysed in relation to spatially variable environmental factors. Previous studies have used simulations to compare different methods for estimating the overall rate of spread of an invasion. We adopted a similar approach of simulating invasions that resemble two real case‐studies, both in terms of their spatial resolution (i.e. considering the size of one cell as one km) and their spatial extent (> 600 000 km²). Simulations were sampled to compare how different methods used to measure local spread rate, namely the neighbouring, nearest distance and Delaunay methods, perform for spatio‐temporal comparisons. We varied the assessment using three levels of complexity of the spatio‐temporal pattern of invasion, three sample sizes (500, 1000 and 2000 points), three different spatial sampling patterns (stratified, random, aggregated), three interpolation methods (generalized linear model, kriging, thin plate spline regression) and two spatio‐temporal modelling structures (trend surface analysis and boundary displacement), resulting in a total of 486 different scenarios. The thin plate spline regression interpolation method, in combination with trend surface analysis, was found to provide the most robust local spread rate quantification as it was able to reliably accommodate different sampling conditions and invasion patterns. This best approach was successfully applied to two case‐studies, the invasion of France by the horse‐chestnut leafminer Cameraria ohridella and by the bluetongue virus, generally in agreement with previously published values of spread rates. Potential avenues for further research are discussed.     

Patterns and Pathways in the Post-Establishment Spread of Non-Indigenous Aquatic Species: The Slowing Invasion of North American Inland Lakes by the Zebra Mussel

The zebra mussel, Dreissena polymorpha, has spread through eastern North American aquatic ecosystems during the past 15 years. Whereas spread among navigable waterways was rapid, the invasion of isolated watersheds has progressed more slowly and less predictably. We examined the patterns of overland spread over multiple spatial and temporal extents including individual lake districts, states, and multi-state regions in the USA and found that only a small proportion (<8%) of suitable inland lakes have been invaded, with the rate of invasion appearing to be slowing. Of the 293 lakes known to be invaded, 97% are located in states adjacent to the Laurentian Great Lakes with over half located in Michigan. Only six states have more than 10 invaded lakes and only in Michigan and Indiana have more than 10% of suitable lakes become invaded. At smaller spatial extents, invaded lakes are often clustered within a lake-rich region across southern Michigan and northern Indiana. This clustering appears primarily due to multiple overland invasions originating from the Great Lakes followed to a lesser extent by subsequent secondary overland and downstream dispersal. Downstream spread appears responsible for only one third of the inland invasions. Temporally, invasions peaked in the late 1990s, with only 13 new invasions (0.4% of suitable lakes) reported in 2003 in the four-state region surrounding Lake Michigan. Peak rates of invasion occurred 4–6 years earlier in Michigan relative to Indiana and Wisconsin, but this time lag is likely due to differences in the establishment of Great Lake source populations rather than ‘stepping stone’ dispersal across the landscape.     

Dynamic expansion in recently introduced populations of fire ant parasitoids (Diptera: Phoridae)

Combating invasive species requires a detailed, mechanistic understanding of the manner and speed with which organisms expand their ranges. Biological control efforts provide an opportunity to study the process of species invasions and range expansions under known initial conditions. This study examines the rate, pattern and mechanisms of spread for two populations of the biological control agent Pseudacteon tricuspis, phorid-fly parasitoids of imported fire ants. We employ a trap-based survey method that detects phorid flies in low-density populations, and provides data on abundance. This technique allows us to differentiate between continuous population spread and effective long-distance dispersal and to examine density gradients of phorid flies across the expanding population front. We find that occupied sites in front of the leading edge of continuous populations were common; forming small populations we refer to as satellite populations. Satellite populations are tens of kilometers from the nearest possible source. Wind governs the dynamics of spread in these two central Texas populations. Population edges expanding with the wind exhibited a higher frequency of effective long-distance dispersal than did populations expanding into the wind. This enhanced effective long-distance dispersal rate translated into a five times faster rate of spread for population edges traveling with the wind. This planned invasion shares many characteristics in common with unplanned species invasions including: protracted establishment phase during which densities were below detection thresholds, and slow initial spread immediately after establishment followed by rapid, accelerating spread rates as population sizes grew.     

Invasion theory and biological control

Recent advances in the mathematical theory of invasion dynamics have much to offer to biological control. Here we synthesize several results concerning the spatiotemporal dynamics that occur when a biocontrol agent spreads into a population of an invading pest species. We outline conditions under which specialist and generalist predators can influence the density and rate of spatial spread of the pest, including the rather stringent conditions under which a specialist predator can successfully reverse a pest invasion. We next discuss the connections between long distance dispersal and invasive spread, emphasizing the different consequences of fast spreading pests and predators. Recent theory has considered the effects of population stage-structure on invasion dynamics, and we discuss how population demography affects the biological control of invading pests. Because low population densities generally characterize early stages of an invasion, we discuss the lessons invasion theory teaches concerning the detectability of invasions. Stochasticity and density-dependent dynamics are common features of many real invasions, influencing both the spatial character (e.g. patchiness) of pest invasions and the success of biocontrol agents. We conclude by outlining theoretical results delineating how stochastic effects and complex dynamics generated by density dependence can facilitate or impede biological pest control.     

Offense and defense in landscape-level invasion control

Biological invasions are multi-stage processes comprising chance demographic events, species interactions, and dispersal. Despite this complexity, simple models can increase understanding of the invasion process. We model the spread of aquatic invasive species through a network of lakes to evaluate the effectiveness of two intervention strategies. The first, which we call offense, contains the invader at sources; the second, which we call defense, protects uninvaded destinations. Deterministic models reveal the effects of these intervention strategies on spread rates. Practical applications involve finite collections of uninvaded lakes, however, and we therefore also present a stochastic model to describe how these strategies affect expected times to important invasion milestones. When the goal is to reduce overall spread rates, both approaches agree that offense is better early in invasions, but that defense is better after 1/2 the lakes are invaded. When the goal is to protect areas of high conservation value, however, defensive site protection always provides lower per site introduction rates. Although we focus on lakes, our results are quite general, and could be applied to any discrete habitat patches including, for example, fragmented terrestrial habitats.     

Contrasting patterns in genetic diversity following multiple invasions of fresh and brackish waters

Biological invasions may combine the genetic effects of population bottlenecks and selection and thus provide valuable insight into the role of such processes during novel environmental colonizations. However, these processes are also influenced by multiple invasions, the number of individuals introduced and the degree of similarity between source and receiving habitats. The amphipod Gammarus tigrinus provides a useful model to assess these factors, as its invasion history has involved major environmental transitions. This species is native to the northwest Atlantic Ocean, although it invaded both brackish and freshwater habitats in the British Isles after introduction more than 65 years ago. It has also spread to similar habitats in Western Europe and, most recently, to Eastern Europe, the Baltic Sea, and the Laurentian Great Lakes. To examine sources of invasion and patterns of genetic change, we sampled populations from 13 native estuaries and 19 invaded sites and sequenced 542 bp of the mitochondrial COI gene. Strong native phylogeographical structure allowed us to unambiguously identify three allopatrically evolved clades (2.3-3.1% divergent) in invading populations, indicative of multiple introductions. The most divergent clades occurred in the British Isles and mainland Europe and were sourced from the St Lawrence and Chesapeake/Delaware Bay estuaries. A third clade was found in the Great Lakes and sourced to the Hudson River estuary. Despite extensive sampling, G. tigrinus did not occur in freshwater at putative source sites. Some European populations showed reduced genetic diversity consistent with bottlenecks, although selection effects cannot be excluded. The habitat distribution of clades in Europe was congruent with the known invasion history of secondary spread from the British Isles. Differences in salinity tolerance among lineages were suggested by patterns of habitat colonization by different native COI clades. Populations consisting of admixtures of the two invading clades were found principally at recently invaded fresh and brackish water sites in Eastern Europe, and were characterized by higher genetic diversity than putative source populations. Further studies are required to determine if these represent novel genotypes. Our results confirm that biological invasions need not result in diminished genetic diversity, particularly if multiple source populations, each with distinctive genetic composition, contribute to the founding populations.     

基于分子生物学方法的外来入侵物种入侵历史重构

生物入侵是一个世界性的问题。全球每年因生物入侵造成的损失超过1万亿美元。探究入侵物种在入侵地的入侵历史对了解生物入侵的生物生态学机制、制定阻截及防除措施有重要意义。分子标记方法的兴起和大规模应用打开了入侵生物入侵历史研究的新天地。采用分子标记的方法可鉴定入侵物种的种类、追溯其来源地、回溯其扩散路径、分析扩散模式及探究物种入侵过程中对入侵种群本身的变化及其对生态系统所造成的各种影响。分子标记的应用使得多个入侵物种的入侵历史得以重现。由于分子标记方法重构的入侵历史受采样范围、采用的分子标记的种类及数量等因素的影响,该方法呈现入侵历史是否是真实发生的入侵过程还存在争议。     

Optimal surveillance and eradication of invasive species in heterogeneous landscapes

Cost-effective surveillance strategies are needed for efficient responses to biological invasions and must account for the trade-offs between surveillance effort and management costs. Less surveillance may allow greater population growth and spread prior to detection, thereby increasing the costs of damages and control. In addition, surveillance strategies are usually applied in environments under continual invasion pressure where the number, size and location of established populations are unknown prior to detection. We develop a novel modeling framework that accounts for these features of the decision and invasion environment and determines the long term sampling effort that minimises the total expected costs of new invasions. The optimal solution depends on population establishment and growth rates, sample sensitivity, and sample, eradication, and damage costs. We demonstrate how to optimise surveillance systems under budgetary constraints and find that accounting for spatial heterogeneity in sampling costs and establishment rates can greatly reduce management costs.     

Invasion speeds for structured populations in fluctuating environments

We live in a time where climate models predict future increases in environmental variability and biological invasions are becoming increasingly frequent. A key to developing effective responses to biological invasions in increasingly variable environments will be estimates of their rates of spatial spread and the associated uncertainty of these estimates. Using stochastic, stage-structured, integrodifference equation models, we show analytically that invasion speeds are asymptotically normally distributed with a variance that decreases in time. We apply our methods to a simple juvenile–adult model with stochastic variation in reproduction and an illustrative example with published data for the perennial herb, Calathea ovandensis. These examples buttressed by additional analysis reveal that increased variability in vital rates simultaneously slow down invasions yet generate greater uncertainty about rates of spatial spread. Moreover, while temporal autocorrelations in vital rates inflate variability in invasion speeds, the effect of these autocorrelations on the average invasion speed can be positive or negative depending on life history traits and how well vital rates “remember” the past.     

Earthworm invasions of ecosystems devoid of earthworms: effects on soil microbes

Recent studies document North American earthworm invasions and their profound effects on the structure of the soil profile, which is the habitat for soil microorganisms (mainly fungi and bacteria). Dramatic alterations made to these layers during earthworm invasion significantly change microbial community structure and therefore microbial activities such as C transformations. Understanding the impacts of earthworm invasion on the microbes themselves will give insight into earthworm effects on microbial activities. Bacterial and actinomycete communities in earthworm guts and casts have not been studied in environments recently invaded by earthworms. Earthworm invasion tended to decrease fungal species density and fungal species diversity and richness. The presence of earthworms decreased zygomycete species abundance probably due to disruption of fungal hyphae. Physical disruption of hyphae may also explain decreased mycorrhizal colonization rates, decreased mycorrhizal abundance and altered mycorrhizal morphology in the presence of earthworms. Mixing of organic layers into mineral soil during earthworm invasion tended to decrease microbial biomass in forest floor materials while increasing it in mineral soil. In newly invaded forest soils, microbial respiration and the metabolic quotient tended to decline. In forests where either the microbial community has had time to adapt to earthworm activities, or where the destruction of the forest floor is complete, as in invasions by the Asian Amynthas hawayanus, the presence of earthworms tends to increase the metabolic quotient indicating a shift to a smaller, more active microbial community.     

Modeling habitat suitability and spread dynamics of two invasive rose species in protected areas of Mendoza,Argentina

Biological invasions are a main threat to biodiversity and natural resources, which calls for studies that identify the regions that present the greatest invasion risks. We assessed the potential distribution of two non-native rose species, Rosa canina and Rosa rubiginosa, in mountain environments in mid-western Argentina, using species distribution models and dynamic simulations. We first fitted the model for one protected area, Villavicencio Nature Reserve, and then we made predictions on the distribution of these species for other protected areas in the same region, where the presence of these species was observed but where there are no systematic surveys on their distribution. We also modeled the invasion dynamics of these species based on habitat suitability, considering the dispersal distance and the growth rate of the invaded area. High and very high suitability sites were detected in all the protected areas studied, suggesting high invasion risk in these protected areas. Our simulations of the spatio–temporal dynamics of the rose invasion in Villavicencio indicated that the spread depends strongly on the average seed dispersal distance, that the spread has been gradual since the rose introduction into the protected area, and that 150 years after the introduction even the areas identified as having low suitability are expected to have been invaded. This is the first study of this type for the region, where these invasive rose species are a serious problem. Taken together, our results may be useful to identify areas vulnerable to invasion and thus help generate effective preventive, monitoring, and control practices.     

Impact of invasions by alien plants on soil seed bank communities: Emerging patterns

Much of our current understanding of the impact of invasive species on plant communities is based on patterns occurring in the above-ground vegetation, while only few studies have examined changes in soil seed banks associated with plant invasions, despite their important role as determinants of vegetation dynamics. Here, we reviewed the literature on the impact of plant invasions on the seed bank and we provide a quantitative synthesis using a meta-analysis approach. Specifically, (1) we quantified the impact of 18 invasive alien plants on (i) species richness and (ii) density of the seed banks of invaded communities, based on 58 pair-wise invaded-uninvaded comparisons (cases); we identified (2) the invasive taxa that are responsible for the largest changes in the seed bank; and (3) the habitats where substantial changes occur. Our study showed three major findings: (1) species richness (68% of cases) and density (58% of cases) were significantly lower in native seed banks invaded by alien plants; (2) species richness and density of native and alien species were remarkably lower in seed banks invaded by large, perennial herbs compared to uninvaded sites; and (3) invaded seed banks were often associated with a larger richness and/or abundance of alien species. This study indicates a need for additional seed bank data in invasion ecology to characterize species-specific and habitat-specific impacts of plant invasions, and to determine whether changes in the seed banks of native and alien species are a symptom of environmental degradation prior to a plant invasion or whether they are its direct result. The findings of this study help improve our capacity to predict the long-term implications of plant invasions, including limitations in the recruitment of native species from the seed bank and the potential for secondary invasions by seeds of other alien species.     

Invasion phylogeography of the Ponto-Caspian crustacean Limnomysis benedeni dispersing across Europe

Aim  Limnomysis benedeni Czerniavsky, 1882 is a mysid crustacean native to the Ponto-Caspian (Black and Caspian Sea) rivers and estuaries, and has recently spread across Europe through intentional and unintentional introductions. We explored the structuring of genetic variation in native and non-native populations with an aim to trace the sources of the invasions, and to infer whether the spread has occurred through a single or multiple invasion waves.
Location  Native estuaries in the Ponto-Caspian basin (Volga, Don, Dnieper, Dniester, Danube) and the recently colonized range along the Danube–Rhine river systems and Lithuania.
Methods  A fragment of the mitochondrial COI gene was sequenced to assess genetic affinities and diversity in native and recently established populations.
Results  The genetic diversity in the native regions is organized into several strongly diverged haplotype groups or lineages, partly allopatric, partly sympatric. All these lineages have also spread beyond the native range. Even the recent rapid dispersal across Europe along the Danube–Rhine system towards the North Sea basin involved several lineages from the Danube delta sector. The structuring of genetic diversity among invaded sites suggests multiple invasion events to the Danube–Rhine drainage. This contrasts with data from some other Ponto-Caspian species, where a single haplotype seems to have occupied most invaded areas. There is no evidence that intentionally stocked reservoirs in the Baltic Sea basin would have contributed to further unintentional spread of L. benedeni.
Main conclusions  Limnomysis benedeni is spreading across Europe using the southern invasion corridor. The invasion most likely involved several waves from differentiated sources in the native Danube delta area.     

Its all about connections: hubs and invasion in habitat networks

During the early stages of invasion, the interaction between the features of the invaded landscape, notably its spatial structure, and the internal dynamics of an introduced population has a crucial impact on establishment and spread. By approximating introduction areas as networks of patches linked by dispersal, we characterised their spatial structure with specific metrics and tested their impact on two essential steps of the invasion process: establishment and spread. By combining simulations with experimental introductions of Trichogramma chilonis (Hymenoptera: Trichogrammatidae) in artificial laboratory microcosms, we demonstrated that spread was hindered by clusters and accelerated by hubs but was also affected by small‐population mechanisms prevalent for invasions, such as Allee effects. Establishment was also affected by demographic mechanisms, in interaction with network metrics. These results highlight the importance of considering the demography of invaders as well as the structure of the invaded area to predict the outcome of invasions.     

Spread rate for a nonlinear stochastic invasion

Despite the recognized importance of stochastic factors, models for ecological invasions are almost exclusively formulated using deterministic equations [29]. Stochastic factors relevant to invasions can be either extrinsic (quantities such as temperature or habitat quality which vary randomly in time and space and are external to the population itself) or intrinsic (arising from a finite population of individuals each reproducing, dying, and interacting with other individuals in a probabilistic manner). It has been long conjectured [27] that intrinsic stochastic factors associated with interacting individuals can slow the spread of a population or disease, even in a uniform environment. While this conjecture has been borne out by numerical simulations, we are not aware of a thorough analytical investigation. In this paper we analyze the effect of intrinsic stochastic factors when individuals interact locally over small neighborhoods. We formulate a set of equations describing the dynamics of spatial moments of the population. Although the full equations cannot be expressed in closed form, a mixture of a moment closure and comparison methods can be used to derive upper and lower bounds for the expected density of individuals. Analysis of the upper solution gives a bound on the rate of spread of the stochastic invasion process which lies strictly below the rate of spread for the deterministic model. The slow spread is most evident when invaders occur in widely spaced high density foci. In this case spatial correlations between individuals mean that density dependent effects are significant even when expected population densities are low. Finally, we propose a heuristic formula for estimating the true rate of spread for the full nonlinear stochastic process based on a scaling argument for moments. Received: 19 October 1998 / Revised version: 1 September 1999 / Published online: 4 October 2000     

Demographic stochasticity and resource autocorrelation control biological invasions in heterogeneous landscapes

Mounting theoretical evidence suggests that demographic stochasticity, environmental heterogeneity and biased movement of organisms individually affect the dynamics of biological invasions and range expansions. Studies of species spread in heterogeneous landscapes have traditionally characterized invasion velocities as functions of the mean resource density throughout the landscape, thus neglecting higher‐order moments of the spatial resource distribution. Here, we show theoretically that different spatial arrangements of resources lead to different spread velocities even if the mean resource density throughout the landscape is kept constant. Specifically, we find that increasing the resource autocorrelation length causes a reduction in the speed of species spread. The model shows that demographic stochasticity plays a key role in the slowdown, which is strengthened when individuals can actively move towards resources. We then experimentally corroborated the theoretically predicted reduction in propagation speed in microcosm experiments with the protist Euglena gracilis by comparing spread in landscapes with different resource autocorrelation lengths. Our work identifies the resource autocorrelation length as a key modulator and a simple measure of landscape susceptibility to biological invasions, which needs to be considered for predicting invasion dynamics within naturally heterogeneous environmental corridors.     

Modelling the introduction and spread of non‐native species: international trade and climate change drive ragweed invasion

Biological invasions are a major driver of global change, for which models can attribute causes, assess impacts and guide management. However, invasion models typically focus on spread from known introduction points or non‐native distributions and ignore the transport processes by which species arrive. Here, we developed a simulation model to understand and describe plant invasion at a continental scale, integrating repeated transport through trade pathways, unintentional release events and the population dynamics and local anthropogenic dispersal that drive subsequent spread. We used the model to simulate the invasion of Europe by common ragweed (Ambrosia artemisiifolia), a globally invasive plant that causes serious harm as an aeroallergen and crop weed. Simulations starting in 1950 accurately reproduced ragweed's current distribution, including the presence of records in climatically unsuitable areas as a result of repeated introduction. Furthermore, the model outputs were strongly correlated with spatial and temporal patterns of ragweed pollen concentrations, which are fully independent of the calibration data. The model suggests that recent trends for warmer summers and increased volumes of international trade have accelerated the ragweed invasion. For the latter, long distance dispersal because of trade within the invaded continent is highlighted as a key invasion process, in addition to import from the native range. Biosecurity simulations, whereby transport through trade pathways is halted, showed that effective control is only achieved by early action targeting all relevant pathways. We conclude that invasion models would benefit from integrating introduction processes (transport and release) with spread dynamics, to better represent propagule pressure from native sources as well as mechanisms for long‐distance dispersal within invaded continents. Ultimately, such integration may facilitate better prediction of spatial and temporal variation in invasion risk and provide useful guidance for management strategies to reduce the impacts of invasion.     

Complementarity of statistical treatments to reconstruct worldwide routes of invasion: the case of the Asian ladybird Harmonia axyridis

Inferences about introduction histories of invasive species remain challenging because of the stochastic demographic processes involved. Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) can help to overcome these problems, but such method requires a prior understanding of population structure over the study area, necessitating the use of alternative methods and an intense sampling design. In this study, we made inferences about the worldwide invasion history of the ladybird Harmonia axyridis by various population genetics statistical methods, using a large set of sampling sites distributed over most of the species’ native and invaded areas. We evaluated the complementarity of the statistical methods and the consequences of using different sets of site samples for ABC inferences. We found that the H. axyridis invasion has involved two bridgehead invasive populations in North America, which have served as the source populations for at least six independent introductions into other continents. We also identified several situations of genetic admixture between differentiated sources. Our results highlight the importance of coupling ABC methods with more traditional statistical approaches. We found that the choice of site samples could affect the conclusions of ABC analyses comparing possible scenarios. Approaches involving independent ABC analyses on several sample sets constitute a sensible solution, complementary to standard quality controls based on the analysis of pseudo‐observed data sets, to minimize erroneous conclusions. This study provides biologists without expertise in this area with detailed methodological and conceptual guidelines for making inferences about invasion routes when dealing with a large number of sampling sites and complex population genetic structures.     

The vulnerability of habitats to plant invasion: disentangling the roles of propagule pressure,time and sampling effort

Aim To quantify the vulnerability of habitats to invasion by alien plants having accounted for the effects of propagule pressure, time and sampling effort. Location New Zealand. Methods We used spatial, temporal and habitat information taken from 9297 herbarium records of 301 alien plant species to examine the vulnerability of 11 terrestrial habitats to plant invasions. A null model that randomized species records across habitats was used to account for variation in sampling effort and to derive a relative measure of invasion based either on all records for a species or only its first record. The relative level of invasion was related to the average distance of each habitat from the nearest conurbation, which was used as a proxy for propagule pressure. The habitat in which a species was first recorded was compared to the habitats encountered for all records of that species to determine whether the initial habitat could predict subsequent habitat occupancy. Results Variation in sampling effort in space and time significantly masked the underlying vulnerability of habitats to plant invasions. Distance from the nearest conurbation had little effect on the relative level of invasion in each habitat, but the number of first records of each species significantly declined with increasing distance. While Urban, Streamside and Coastal habitats were over‐represented as sites of initial invasion, there was no evidence of major invasion hotspots from which alien plants might subsequently spread. Rather, the data suggest that certain habitats (especially Roadsides) readily accumulate alien plants from other habitats. Main conclusions Herbarium records combined with a suitable null model provide a powerful tool for assessing the relative vulnerability of habitats to plant invasion. The first records of alien plants tend to be found near conurbations, but this pattern disappears with subsequent spread. Regardless of the habitat where a species was first recorded, ultimately most alien plants spread to Roadside and Sparse habitats. This information suggests that such habitats may be useful targets for weed surveillance and monitoring.     

Traits linked with species invasiveness and community invasibility vary with time,stage and indicator of invasion in a long‐term grassland experiment

Much uncertainty remains about traits linked with successful invasion – the establishment and spread of non‐resident species into existing communities. Using a 20‐year experiment, where 50 non‐resident (but mostly native) grassland plant species were sown into savannah plots, we ask how traits linked with invasion depend on invasion stage (establishment, spread), indicator of invasion success (occupancy, relative abundance), time, environmental conditions, propagule rain, and traits of invaders and invaded communities. Trait data for 164 taxa showed that invader occupancy was primarily associated with traits of invaders, traits of recipient communities, and invader‐community interactions. Invader abundance was more strongly associated with community traits (e.g. proportion legume) and trait differences between invaders and the most similar resident species. Annuals and invaders with high‐specific leaf area were only successful early in stand development, whereas invaders with conservative carbon capture strategies persisted long‐term. Our results indicate that invasion is context‐dependent and long‐term experiments are required to comprehensively understand invasions.