The forgotten prey of an iconic predator: a review of interactions between grey wolves Canis lupus and beavers Castor spp.

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A review of the population dynamics of mule deer and black‐tailed deer Odocoileus hemionus in North America

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Linkages between large‐scale climate patterns and the dynamics of Arctic caribou populations

Recent research has linked climate warming to global declines in caribou and reindeer (both Rangifer tarandus) populations. We hypothesize large‐scale climate patterns are a contributing factor explaining why these declines are not universal. To test our hypothesis for such relationships among Alaska caribou herds, we calculated the population growth rate and percent change of four arctic herds using existing population estimates, and explored associations with indices of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). The AO, which more strongly affects eastern Alaska, was negatively associated with the population trends of the Porcupine Caribou Herd and Central Arctic Herd, the easternmost of the herds. We hypothesize that either increased snowfall or suboptimal growing conditions for summer forage plants could explain this negative relationship. Intensity of the PDO, which has greatest effects in western Alaska, was negatively associated with the growth rate of the Teshekpuk Caribou Herd in northwestern Alaska, but the Western Arctic Herd in western Alaska displayed the opposite trend. We suggest that the contrasting patterns of association relate to the spatial variability of the effects of the PDO on western and northwestern Alaska. Although predation and winter range quality have often been considered the primary causes of population variation, our results show that large‐scale climate patterns may play an important role in caribou population dynamics in arctic Alaska. Our findings reveal that climate warming has not acted uniformly to reduce caribou populations globally. Further research should focus on the relative importance of mechanisms by which climate indices influence caribou population dynamics.     

A reappraisal of the evidence for regulation of wolf populations

The dogma that gray wolf (Canis lupus) population densities in naturally occurring systems are limited almost solely by available ungulate biomass is based upon studies that fit straight line linear regressions (Type 1 numerical response) to data collected at 32 sites across North America. We fit Type 1, 2, and 3 response functions to the data using linear and nonlinear regression as appropriate and found that the evidence supported wolf population regulation by density-dependence as much as limitation by prey availability. When we excluded 4 of 32 points from the original data set because those points represented exploited or expanding wolf populations the data suggested that wolf populations are self regulated rather than limited by prey biomass by at least a 3:1 margin. In establishing goals for sustainable wolf population levels, managers of wolf reintroductions and species recovery efforts should account for the possibility that some regulatory mechanism plays an important role in wolf population dynamics. © 2011 The Wildlife Society.     

Optimal predator management for mountain sheep conservation depends on the strength of mesopredator release

Large predators often suppress ungulate population growth, but they may also suppress the abundance of smaller predators that prey on neonatal ungulates. Antagonistic interactions among predators may therefore need to be integrated into predator–prey models to effectively manage ungulate–predator systems. We present a modeling framework that examines the net impact of interacting predators on the population growth rate of shared prey, using interactions among wolves Canis lupus, coyotes Canis latrans and Dall sheep Ovis dalli dalli as a case study. Wolf control is currently employed on approximately 16 million ha in Alaska to increase the abundance of ungulates for human harvest. We hypothesized that the positive effects of wolf control on Dall sheep population growth could be counteracted by increased levels of predation by coyotes. Coyotes and Dall sheep adult females (ewes) and lambs were radiocollared in the Alaska Range from 1999–2005 to estimate fecundity, age‐specific survival rates, and causes of mortality in an area without wolf control. We used stage‐structured population models to simulate the net effect of wolf control on Dall sheep population growth (λ). Our models accounted for stage‐specific predation rates by wolves and coyotes, compensatory mortality, and the potential release of coyote populations due to wolf control. Wolves were the main predators of ewes, coyotes were the main predators of lambs, and wolves were the main source of mortality for coyotes. Population models predicted that wolf control could increase sheep λ by 4% per year in the absence of mesopredator release. However, if wolf control released coyote populations, our models predicted that sheep λ could decrease by up to 3% per year. These results highlight the importance of integrating antagonistic interactions among predators into predator–prey models, because the net effect of predator management on shared prey can depend critically on the strength of mesopredator release.     

Genetics and conservation of wolves Canis lupus in Europe

• 1 The wolf Canis lupus, the most widespread of the four species of large carnivores in Europe, after centuries of population decline and eradication, is now recovering in many countries. Wolves contribute to regulating prey–predator dynamics and interact with human activities, mainly livestock farming and ungulate hunting. Although wolves are protected in most European countries, illegal or incidental killing is widespread.
• 2 Wolf populations do not show any apparent phylogeographic structuring worldwide. Molecular and morphological studies of historical samples showed evidence of wolf ecomorph extinctions, coinciding with the great Pleistocene faunal turnover.
• 3 Extant populations show recurrent long‐range dispersal during cycles of expansion and recolonization. Demographically stable populations, in contrast, seem to be characterized by very limited gene flow.
• 4 Despite the potential for dispersal and ecological flexibility, landscape genetic approaches have demonstrated the existence of genetically distinct wolf populations, which originated through habitat and prey specializations.
• 5 Small isolated wolf populations may suffer from inbreeding depression, although selection for heterozygotes and the rescue effect can foster rapid population recovery. Population structure and dynamics is efficiently monitored by non‐invasive genetic methods, which are also useful to identify wolf × dogCanis lupus familiaris hybridization.
• 6 Despite technical advances and a better knowledge of wolf biology, wolf conservation is largely dependent on humans, and on the solution of conflicts with stakeholders.

     

Bottom‐up processes in a declining yellow‐footed rock‐wallaby (Petrogale xanthopus celeris) population

Populations of large herbivores are generally considered to be food limited, escaping the regulatory effects of predation through their large body size, migratory behaviour and/or the occurrence of alternate prey species. In the Australian arid and semi‐arid zones, the availability of forage biomass is considered to be the primary driver of fluctuations in kangaroo abundance. However, little is known about the population dynamics of the smaller sympatric macropods. We examined the demographic traits of a large colony of yellow‐footed rock‐wallabies (Petrogale xanthopus celeris), following a 2‐year period of above average rainfall. The population was located within a conservation reserve that was subject to a predator control program around its perimeter and on neighbouring properties. The low predator abundance provided an opportunity to gauge the strength of bottom‐up population processes. During the two years of the study, the population declined in size by 53%, resulting from both the virtual absence of juvenile recruitment and the loss of adult wallabies. Although reproductive output was high, low pouch young and juvenile survival rates resulted in few individuals progressing into the adult population. With minimal recruitment, the rate of population decline (r = 0.77) matched the observed adult survival rate (Φ = 0.76). Despite average rainfall conditions during the study, survival rates across all age‐classes were equivalent to those reported for other rock‐wallaby populations during periods of scarcity. The reduced survival rates were attributed to low levels of forage resources, particularly around the wallabies' refuge sites, suggesting the bottom‐up regulation of the colony at high densities. The data suggest that the colony was at temporarily high abundance, following a rainfall driven pulse of recruitment. Conservation management actions for this species should focus on increasing juvenile survival rates within declining populations, through the control of feral goats (Capra hircus), rabbits (Oryctolagus cuniculus) and red foxes (Vulpes vulpes).     

Effects of wolf pack size and winter conditions on elk mortality

Elk (Cervus canadensis) are high-profile game animals for many states in the western United States, yet over the past several decades some populations have experienced a persistent and broad-scale decline in recruitment. Over this same period, gray wolves (Canis lupus) have become an integral component of many western landscapes and agencies are increasingly challenged to maximize hunting opportunities of ungulates via predator management while simultaneously ensuring wolf conservation. To better understand the implications of predator management on elk populations, we monitored survival of 1,244 adult female elk and 806 6-month-old calves from 29 populations distributed throughout Idaho, USA, from 2004 to 2016. We developed predictive models of mortality that related mortality risk to wolf pack size, winter conditions, and individual-level characteristics. Annual mortality rates (excluding harvest) for adult females and calves were 0.09 and 0.40, respectively. Calf mortality was predicted best with a model that included additive effects of chest girth at time of capture, mean size of surrounding wolf packs, and snow depth. Adult female mortality was predicted best with a model that included female age, mean size of surrounding wolf packs, and snow depth. Based on a sensitivity analysis, chest girth had the largest effect on risk of mortality for calves followed by pack size and snow depth. Other than the effect of senescence in the oldest (>15 yr) individuals, pack size and snow depth had the largest effect on risk of mortality for adult females. We estimated cause-specific mortality and predation was the dominant cause of known-fate mortalities for adult females (35% mountain lion [Puma concolor] and 32% wolf) and calves (45% mountain lion and 28% wolf), whereas malnutrition accounted for 9% and 10% of adult female and calf mortalities, respectively. Wolves preferentially selected smaller calves and older adult females, whereas mountain lions showed little preference for calf size or age class of adult females. Our study indicates managers can increase elk survival by reducing wolf pack sizes on surrounding winter ranges, especially in areas where, or during years when, snow is deep. Additionally, managers interested in improving over-winter calf survival can implement actions to increase the size of calves entering winter by increasing the nutritional quality of summer and early fall forage resources. Although our study was prompted by management questions related to wolves, mountain lions killed more elk than wolves and differences in selection of individual elk indicate mountain lions may have comparably more of an effect on elk population dynamics. Although we were unable to relate changes in mountain lion populations to elk survival in our study, future research should seek a better understanding of multi-predator systems, including how management of one predator affect others and ultimately how these interactions affect elk survival. © 2019 The Wildlife Society     

Juvenile recruitment in loggerhead sea turtles linked to decadal changes in ocean circulation

Given the threats of climate change, understanding the relationship of climate with long‐term population dynamics is critical for wildlife conservation. Previous studies have linked decadal climate oscillations to indices of juvenile recruitment in loggerhead sea turtles (Caretta caretta), but without a clear understanding of mechanisms. Here, we explore the underlying processes that may explain these relationships. Using the eddy‐resolving Ocean General Circulation Model for the Earth Simulator, we generate hatch‐year trajectories for loggerhead turtles emanating from Japan over six decades (1950–2010). We find that the proximity of the high‐velocity Kuroshio Current to the primary nesting areas in southern Japan is remarkably stable and that hatchling dispersal to oceanic habitats itself does not vary on decadal timescales. However, we observe a shift in latitudes of trajectories, consistent with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). In a negative PDO phase, the Kuroshio Extension Current (KEC) is strong and acts as a physical barrier to the northward transport of neonates. As a result, hatch‐year trajectories remain mostly below 35°N in the warm, unproductive region south of the Transition Zone Chlorophyll Front (TZCF). During a positive PDO phase, however, the KEC weakens facilitating the neonates to swim north of the TZCF into cooler and more productive waters. As a result, annual cohorts from negative PDO years may face a lack of resources, whereas cohorts from positive PDO years may find sufficient resources during their pivotal first year. These model outputs indicate that the ocean circulation dynamics, combined with navigational swimming behavior, may be a key factor in the observed decadal variability of sea turtle populations.     

Fluctuating ungulate density shapes tree recruitment in natural stands of the Białowieża Primeval Forest,Poland

Question: What are the main driving factors in 70 years of natural dynamics in tree recruitment in the Bia?owie?a National Park? Location: Bia?owie?a National Park, Poland, is one of the least disturbed temperate, lowland forest systems in Europe. Methods: We tested whether fluctuations in large herbivore populations, changes in climate and openness of the forest explained compositional dynamics. Tree recruitment (to size class DBH≥5 cm) was measured on permanent transects (in total, 14.9 ha) six times between 1936‐2002. These data were related to existing data on ungulate density, climatic parameters and estimates of forest openness collected during the same period. Results: Total recruitment of all tree species combined was negatively correlated with total ungulate density and red deer density. The variation in response between species was related to the preferences of herbivores; the more preferred forage species (especially Carpinus betulus) were positively and the less preferred species negatively related to herbivore density. Total tree recruitment rates were not related to climatic parameters and openness of the forest. Only Alnus glutinosa recruitment was significantly related to climatic parameters, and Ulmus glabra related to forest openness, but there were no predictable patterns in recruitment among species in relation to these factors. Conclusion: The present study indicated that changes in large herbivore density have played an important role in driving patterns in tree recruitment and species composition during the last 70 years in Bia?owie?a National Park. In contrast to other studies, increasing herbivore numbers were associated with higher recruitment of preferred and browsing‐tolerant species. Periodical crashes in ungulate numbers, whether human‐induced or caused by natural factors, may offer windows of opportunity for regeneration of a range of tree species and facilitate more diverse and dynamic forest development.     

Invading white-tailed deer change wolf–caribou dynamics in northeastern Alberta

Human-caused habitat change has been implicated in current woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou) population declines across North America. Increased early seral habitat associated with industrial footprint can result in an increase in ungulate densities and subsequently those of their predator, wolves (Canis lupus). Higher wolf densities can result in increased encounters between wolves and caribou and consequently higher caribou mortality. We contrasted changes in moose (Alces alces) and deer (Odocoileus spp.) densities and assessed their effects on wolf–caribou dynamics in northeastern Alberta, Canada, pre (1994–1997) versus post (2005–2009) major industrial expansion in the region. Observable white-tailed deer (O. virginianus) increased 17.5-fold but moose remained unchanged. Wolf numbers also increased from approximately 6–11.5/1,000 km². Coincident with these changes, spatial overlap between wolf pack territories and caribou range was high relative to the mid-1990s. The high number of wolf locations in caribou range suggests that forays were not merely exploratory, but rather represented hunting forays and denning locations. Scat analysis indicated that wolf consumption of moose declined substantively during this time period, whereas use of deer increased markedly and deer replaced moose as the primary prey of wolves. Caribou increased 10-fold in the diet of wolves and caribou population trends in the region changed from stable to declining. Wolf use of beaver (Castor canadensis) increased since the mid-1990s. We suggest that recent declines in woodland caribou populations in the southerly extent of their range have occurred because high deer densities resulted in a numeric response by wolves and consequently higher incidental predation on caribou. Our results indicate that management actions to conserve caribou must now include deer in primary prey and wolf reduction programs. © 2010 The Wildlife Society     

Plasticity in functional traits in the context of climate change: a case study of the subalpine forb Boechera stricta (Brassicaceae)

Environmental variation often induces shifts in functional traits, yet we know little about whether plasticity will reduce extinction risks under climate change. As climate change proceeds, phenotypic plasticity could enable species with limited dispersal capacity to persist in situ, and migrating populations of other species to establish in new sites at higher elevations or latitudes. Alternatively, climate change could induce maladaptive plasticity, reducing fitness, and potentially stalling adaptation and migration. Here, we quantified plasticity in life history, foliar morphology, and ecophysiology in Boechera stricta (Brassicaceae), a perennial forb native to the Rocky Mountains. In this region, warming winters are reducing snowpack and warming springs are advancing the timing of snow melt. We hypothesized that traits that were historically advantageous in hot and dry, low‐elevation locations will be favored at higher elevation sites due to climate change. To test this hypothesis, we quantified trait variation in natural populations across an elevational gradient. We then estimated plasticity and genetic variation in common gardens at two elevations. Finally, we tested whether climatic manipulations induce plasticity, with the prediction that plants exposed to early snow removal would resemble individuals from lower elevation populations. In natural populations, foliar morphology and ecophysiology varied with elevation in the predicted directions. In the common gardens, trait plasticity was generally concordant with phenotypic clines from the natural populations. Experimental snow removal advanced flowering phenology by 7 days, which is similar in magnitude to flowering time shifts over 2–3 decades of climate change. Therefore, snow manipulations in this system can be used to predict eco‐evolutionary responses to global change. Snow removal also altered foliar morphology, but in unexpected ways. Extensive plasticity could buffer against immediate fitness declines due to changing climates.     

The influence of snow on the functional response of grazing ungulates

The forage intake rate of grazing ungulates is limited either by the rate at which they encounter food items, or the rate at which food items are handled. Whether an ungulate is encounter‐ or handling‐limited influences spatial and temporal depletion of forage, daily time budgets, and ultimately animal condition. Previously, vegetation abundance has been used as a surrogate for an ungulate's encounter rate with food items and related to observed bite rate to determine whether intake rate is encounter‐ or handling‐limited. In temperate climates snow accumulation during winter limits access to vegetation by forcing animals to wade and paw through snow to consume underlying vegetation, increasing the amount of time required to encounter a food item. As a result, an ungulate may be handling‐limited when foraging in a high biomass system under snow‐free conditions, but becomes encounter‐limited when snow accumulates. We derived a model that provides a frame work for estimating the rate at which a grazing ungulate encounters vegetation by considering foraging velocity, vegetation biomass and the time required to paw away snow when present. We then used data from focal observations of 36 wild elk Cervus canadensis wintering on a montane grassland in the Canadian Rockies of Alberta, Canada, to apply our model and estimate encounter rate over a range of vegetation abundance and snow conditions. Using AIC_c in a model selection approach we found that an asymptotic regression model of observed bite rate as a function of estimated encounter rate provided a better fit than similar models using only vegetation abundance as the explanatory variable. An asymptotic model suggests elk were handling‐limited in the absence of snow, but became encounter‐limited when snow accumulated. Our results demonstrate the importance of considering the influence of factors other than vegetation abundance on the intake rate of grazing ungulates.     

Recolonizing gray wolves increase parasite infection risk in their prey

The recent recolonization of Central Europe by the European gray wolf (Canis lupus) provides an opportunity to study the dynamics of parasite transmission for cases when a definitive host returns after a phase of local extinction. We investigated whether a newly established wolf population increased the prevalence of those parasites in ungulate intermediate hosts representing wolf prey, whether some parasite species are particularly well adapted to wolves, and the potential basis for such adaptations. We recorded Sarcocystis species richness in wolves and Sarcocystis prevalence in ungulates harvested in study sites with and without permanent wolf presence in Germany using microscopy and DNA metabarcoding. Sarcocystis prevalence in red deer (Cervus elaphus) was significantly higher in wolf areas (79.7%) than in control areas (26.3%) but not in roe deer (Capreolus capreolus) (97.2% vs. 90.4%) or wild boar (Sus scrofa) (82.8% vs. 64.9%). Of 11 Sarcocystis species, Sarcocystis taeniata and Sarcocystis grueneri occurred more often in wolves than expected from the Sarcocystis infection patterns of ungulate prey. Both Sarcocystis species showed a higher increase in prevalence in ungulates in wolf areas than other Sarcocystis species, suggesting that they are particularly well adapted to wolves, and are examples of “wolf specialists”. Sarcocystis species richness in wolves was significantly higher in pups than in adults. “Wolf specialists” persisted during wolf maturation. The results of this study demonstrate that (1) predator–prey interactions influence parasite prevalence, if both predator and prey are part of the parasite life cycle, (2) mesopredators do not necessarily replace the apex predator in parasite transmission dynamics for particular parasites of which the apex predator is the definitive host, even if meso‐ and apex predators were from the same taxonomic family (here: Canidae, e.g., red foxes Vulpes vulpes), and (3) age‐dependent immune maturation contributes to the control of protozoan infection in wolves.     

The interacting effects of food,spring temperature,and global climate cycles on population dynamics of a migratory songbird

Although long‐distance migratory songbirds are widely believed to be at risk from warming temperature trends, species capable of attempting more than one brood in a breeding season could benefit from extended breeding seasons in warmer springs. To evaluate local and global factors affecting population dynamics of the black‐throated blue warbler (Setophaga caerulescens), a double‐brooded long‐distance migrant, we used Pradel models to analyze 25 years of mark–recapture data collected in New Hampshire, USA. We assessed the effects of spring temperature (local weather) and the El Niño Southern Oscillation index (a global climate cycle), as well as predator abundance, insect biomass, and local conspecific density on population growth in the subsequent year. Local and global climatic conditions affected warbler populations in different ways. We found that warbler population growth was lower following El Niño years (which have been linked to poor survival in the wintering grounds and low fledging weights in the breeding grounds) than La Niña years. At a local scale, populations increased following years with warm springs and abundant late‐season food, but were unaffected by spring temperature following years when food was scarce. These results indicate that the warming temperature trends might have a positive effect on recruitment and population growth of black‐throated blue warblers if food abundance is sustained in breeding areas. In contrast, potential intensification of future El Niño events could negatively impact vital rates and populations of this species.     

Aspen Restoration Using Beaver on the Northern Yellowstone Winter Range under Reduced Ungulate Herbivory

Ungulate browsing and lack of overstory disturbance have historically prevented aspen regeneration on the Northern Yellowstone Winter Range (NYWR). Aspen clones regenerate if sprouts are produced that grow into recruitment stems (>2 m tall) and replace the mature overstory. Beaver reintroduced in 1991 to Eagle Creek on the NYWR facilitated aspen restoration by removing overstory trees and increasing sprouting. However, intense ungulate browsing, primarily from the Northern Yellowstone elk herd, was preventing aspen recruitment in Eagle Creek as of 2005. Since 2005, wolf predation has contributed to a 56% decrease in this elk herd. We investigated the effects of beaver reintroduction, ungulate herbivory, and predator‐mediated declines in elk numbers on aspen regeneration in Eagle Creek from 1997 to 2012. Aerial photos of Eagle Creek in 2005 and 2011 showed that the aspen overstory has not been replaced 21 years after beaver reintroduction (p > 0.05). Sprouting and recruitment were investigated using 4‐m radius circular plots (n = 31) established throughout Eagle Creek in 1997 and monitored annually until 2012. Beaver activity stimulated sprouting in 71% of these plots. In 2012, 77% of the plots had ≥1 recruitment stem and 75% of the paired plots associated with exclosures (n = 16) had aspen stems with an average height ≥2 m. Recent increases in aspen recruitment in Eagle Creek indicate that aspen communities are regenerating. This has likely resulted from decreased ungulate browsing pressure on aspen saplings from 2005 to 2012. These findings are consistent with the predictions of a density‐mediated trophic cascade following wolf reintroduction.     

Coping with fast climate change in northern ecosystems: mechanisms underlying the population‐level response of a specialist avian predator

Northern ecosystems are facing unprecedented climate modifications, which pose a major threat for arctic species, especially the specialist predator guild. However, the mechanisms underlying responses of predators to climate change remain poorly understood. Climate can influence fitness parameters of predators either through reduced reproduction or survival following adverse weather conditions, or via changes in the population dynamics of their main prey. Here, we combined three overlapping long‐term datasets on the breeding density and parameters of a rodent‐specialist predator, the rough‐legged buzzard Buteo lagopus, its main prey population dynamics and climate variables, collected in subarctic areas of Finland and Norway, to assess the impact of changing climate on the predator reproductive response. Rough‐legged buzzards responded to ongoing climate change by advancing their laying date (0.1 d yr^?1 over the 21 yr of the study period), as a consequence of earlier snowmelt. However, we documented for the same period a decrease in breeding success, which principally resulted from an indirect effect of changes in the dynamics of their main prey, i.e. grey‐sided voles Microtus oeconomus, and not from the expected negative effect of unfavorable weather conditions during the brood‐rearing period on nestling survival. Additionally, we showed the striking impact of autumn and winter weather conditions on vole population growth rates in subarctic ecosystems, with a strong positive correlation between mean snow depth in autumn and winter and both winter and summer population growth rates. Our results highlighted that, in northern ecosystems, ongoing climate change has the potential to impact specialist predator species through two mechanistic linkages, which may in the long‐run, threaten the viability of their populations, and lead to potential severe cascading trophic effects at the ecosystem level.     

Population dynamics in a guild of four Mediterranean ungulates: density‐dependence,environmental effects and inter‐specific interactions

Population fluctuations in ungulates are driven by both intrinsic and extrinsic factors. Available information, however, mainly refers to arctic, temperate and African ungulate populations, while the dynamics of Mediterranean species, exposed to a milder climate, is known to a much lesser extent. Here we studied the population dynamics of four wild ungulate species in the Castelporziano Preserve near Rome, Italy, as obtained from detailed bag counts from hunting drives during the period 1878–1986: the Italian roe deer Capreolus capreolus italicus, the Maremma wild boar Sus scrofa majori (both endemic to Italy), the native red deer Cervus elaphus, and the alien fallow deer Dama dama. We also considered the effects of the presence of another alien ungulate, the nilgai Boselaphus tragocamelus. This ungulate community experienced an accidental ‘removal experiment’ when, during World War II, red deer and nilgai were exterminated. This event and the length of the time series allowed us to test two main hypotheses: 1) that the complexity level of the ungulate community affects the strength of intra‐ and inter‐specific competition; and 2) that in Mediterranean environments intra‐ and inter‐specific interactions are stronger than climate forcing. Statistical methods ranged from state‐space‐modelling, GLM analysis and structural equation models. The results indicated that direct intra‐specific density dependence played a relevant role for all species, and was stronger after the removal. A complex pattern of species interactions was however revealed; fallow deer had a negative effect on roe deer population, while roe deer had an apparent positive effect on red deer and wild boar, possibly mediated by environmental factors. Nilgai appeared to facilitate all deer species. The results of the analysis also confirmed that at present climate appears to play a minor role with respect to density dependence; however, the increasing aridity of the Mediterranean area could change this picture in coming decades.     

Large‐scale climatic variability affects the dynamics of tropical skipjack tuna in the Western Pacific Ocean

The role of climate variability in determining the fluctuations of fish populations had been a traditional problem in ecology. In this paper, we studied the role of the Southern Oscillation Index (SO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) on the population dynamics of the western stock of the skipjack tuna Katsuwonus pelamis. Our analysis was based in three sequential steeps: a diagnostic approach to deduce what kind of population dynamic model should be more appropriate, the modelling of capture per unit of effort data through a logistic model, and the use of population dynamic theory for analyzing the effect of exogenous perturbations. We find that direct and one‐year lagged negative PDO effects and one‐year lagged negative SO effects were needed to explain annual tuna fluctuations. Models including the combined effects of these climatic indexes explain 80% of the variance in tuna fluctuations. In addition, these models provided very accurate predictions of independent skipjack tuna observed dynamics. This result is encouraging because the inherent variability in CPUE data and the not well determined link between climate and ecological processes. Finally, this study demonstrates that simple models can offer reasonable explanations and accurate predictions of tuna fluctuations, provided they are based on a sound theoretical framework.     

Population resistance to climate change: modelling the effects of low recruitment in open populations

Isolated populations or those at the edge of their distribution are usually more sensitive to changes in the environment, such as climate change. For the barnacle Semibalanus balanoides (L.), one possible effect of climate change is that unpredictable spring weather could lead to the mismatching of larval release with spring phytoplankton bloom, hence reducing the recruitment. In this paper, model simulations of a variable open population with space limited recruitment were used to investigate the effects of low and zero recruitment on population abundance in S. balanoides. Data for model parameters was taken from an isolated population in the Isle of Man, British Isles. Model simulations with observed frequencies of years with low recruitment showed only small changes in population dynamics. Increased frequencies of low recruitment had large effects on the variation in population growth rate and free space and on population structure. Furthermore, populations with intermediate to high frequencies of low recruitment appeared more sensitive to additional changes in recruitment. Exchanging low recruitment with zero recruitment severely increased the risk of local extinctions. Simulations with consecutive years of low recruitment showed a substantial increase in free space and an increase in the time taken to recover to normal densities. In conclusion, model simulations indicate that variable populations can be well buffered to changes in the demography caused by introduced environmental noise, but also, that intermediate to high frequencies of disturbance can lead to a swift change in population dynamics, which in turn, may affect the dynamics of whole communities.