Capture–recapture models with heterogeneity to study survival senescence in the wild

Detecting senescence in wild populations and estimating its strength raise three challenges. First, in the presence of individual heterogeneity in survival probability, the proportion of high‐survival individuals increases with age. This increase can mask a senescence‐related decrease in survival probability when the probability is estimated at the population level. To accommodate individual heterogeneity we use a mixture model structure (discrete classes of individuals). Second, the study individuals can elude the observers in the field, and their detection rate can be heterogeneous. To account for detectability issues we use capture–mark–recapture (CMR) methodology, mixture models and data that provide information on individuals’ detectability. Last, emigration to non‐monitored sites can bias survival estimates, because it can occur at the end of the individuals’ histories and mimic earlier death. To model emigration we use Markovian transitions to and from an unobservable state. These different model structures are merged together using hidden Markov chain CMR models, or multievent models. Simulation studies illustrate that reliable evidence for survival senescence can be obtained using highly heterogeneous data from non site‐faithful individuals. We then design a tailored application for a dataset from a colony of black‐headed gull Chroicocephalus ridibundus. Survival probabilities do not appear individually variable, but evidence for survival senescence becomes significant only when accounting for other sources of heterogeneity. This result suggests that not accounting for heterogeneity leads to flawed inference and/or that emigration heterogeneity mimics survival heterogeneity and biases senescence estimates.     

Age‐related variation and temporal patterns in the survival of a long‐lived scavenger

Although senescence has been described for various fitness components in a wide range of animal species, few studies have studied senescence in long‐lived species, and little is known about its interactions with varying environmental conditions. Using a 32 year capture–mark–recapture dataset on the griffon vulture Gyps fulvus, we examined the demographic patterns of actuarial senescence and the patterns of year‐to‐year variation in survival rates. We found a significant, surprisingly late, decrease of annual survival probabilities from the age of 28 years onward and divided individual lifetimes into to three categories (juvenile, mid‐age and senescent birds). In agreement with the environmental canalization hypothesis, our analyses uncovered 1) higher temporal variation of annual survival probabilities in both the juvenile and senescent age classes compared to the mid‐age class and 2) low sensitivity of the population growth rate to the survival of both the juvenile and senescent age classes. Our results further suggested that the temporal variation in the survival of senescent birds might be related to intra‐annual changes in air temperature amplitudes. Finally, using population dynamics modeling, we revealed contrasting effects of the inclusion of the senescent age class on predicted population growth, depending on how survival rates were modeled. Altogether, our results demonstrate the existence of a class of senescent birds that exhibit distinct demographic properties compared to juvenile and mid‐age classes.     

Lower survival probability of house sparrows severely infected by the gapeworm parasite

The effect of parasites in natural populations has received increasing attention in recent years. Studies have shown that parasites may play an important part in population ecology due to their potential effects on host fitness. The main purpose of the present study was to investigate the effect of a nematode parasite (gapeworm, Syngamus trachea) on survival probability of house sparrows Passer domesticus from six natural populations located on 4 islands in the Helgeland archipelago in northern Norway. Infection status was obtained from feces samples collected from 603 house sparrows in the summer and autumn of 2007–2011. We also collected data on a visible symptom of severe infection (gasping for air) in 1391 house sparrows in the summer and autumn 2004–2011. We took advantage of recent advances in disease modeling in a multi‐event capture–mark–recapture framework to account for imperfect observations (state uncertainty). Each dataset was separately analyzed, in both analyses we investigated the relationships of year, island, individual body condition, age class and population density with survival probabilities. The relationship between infection (determined by feces egg counts) on annual survival of house sparrows was not statistically significant. However, the probability of annual survival was found to be significantly lower for adult house sparrows exhibiting a symptom of severe gapeworm infection, gasping for air. The present study demonstrates that severe infection by a parasite can have a negative relationship with survival probability of short‐lived avian hosts in wild populations.     

Haematological parameters do senesce in the wild: evidence from different populations of a long‐lived mammal

Increasing evidence of senescence has been reported from long‐term studies of wild populations. However, most studies have focused on life‐history traits like survival, reproduction or body mass, generally from a single intensively monitored population. However, variation in the intensity of senescence across populations, and to a lesser extent between sexes, is still poorly understood. In addition, the pattern of age‐specific changes in haematological parameters remains virtually unknown to date for any population of vertebrate living in the wild. Using repeated blood samples collected from known‐aged (2–15 years of age) roe deer (Capreolus capreolus) from two populations facing highly different environmental conditions, we filled the gap. In particular, we investigated age‐specific changes in haematocrit, albumin and creatinine. We reported clear evidence of senescence in all haematological parameters. Moreover, senescence patterns differed between sexes and populations. The rate of senescence was higher in males than in females for haematocrit with no site difference. On the other hand, the rate of senescence in creatinine was higher at Trois Fontaines than at Chizé with no sex difference. Our findings provide a first demonstration of age‐specific declines in haematological parameters in wild populations of large herbivores and show that the process of senescence in vertebrates is not restricted to body mass or fitness components. We also demonstrate that the senescence pattern of haematological parameters is context dependent and varies both between sexes and according to environmental conditions.     

Multiscale patterns of movement in fragmented landscapes and consequences on demography of the snail kite in Florida

1. Habitat loss and fragmentation are major factors affecting vertebrate populations. A major effect of these habitat alterations is that they reduce movement of organisms. Despite the accepted importance of movement in driving the dynamics of many natural populations, movement of vertebrates in fragmented landscapes have seldom been estimated with robust statistical methods. 2. We estimated movement probabilities of snail kites Rosthramus sociabilis within the remaining wetlands in Florida. Using both radio-telemetry and banding information, we used a multistate modelling approach to estimate transition probabilities at two temporal scales (month; year) and multiple spatial scales. We examined kite movement among wetlands altered by three different levels of fragmentation: among wetlands separated by small physical barriers (e.g. road); among wetlands separated by moderate amount of matrix (< 5 km); and among wetlands separated by extensive matrix areas (> 15 km). 3. Kites moved extensively among contiguous wetlands (movement probability 0.29 per month), but significantly less among isolated wetlands (movement probability 0.10 per month). 4. Kites showed high levels of annual site fidelity to most isolated wetlands (probability ranged from 0.72 to 0.95 per year). 5. We tested the effects of patch size and interpatch distance on movement. Our modelling indicated an effect of both distance and patch size on juveniles' movement (but not adult) when examining movements among fragments. 6. Only a small proportion of kites escaped a regional drought by moving to refugia (wetlands less affected by drought). Many individuals died after the drought. During drought adult survival dropped by 16% while juvenile survival dropped by 86% (possibly because juveniles were less likely to reach refugia). 7. We hypothesize that fragmentation may decrease kite's resistance to drought by restricting exploratory behaviour.     

Condition‐dependent mortality exacerbates male (but not female) reproductive senescence and the potential for sexual conflict

Disentangling the relationship between age and reproduction is central to understand life‐history evolution, and recent evidence shows that considering condition‐dependent mortality is a crucial piece of this puzzle. For example, nonrandom mortality of ‘low‐condition’ individuals can lead to an increase in average lifespan. However, selective disappearance of such low‐condition individuals may also affect reproductive senescence at the population level due to trade‐offs between physiological functions related to survival/lifespan and the maintenance of reproductive functions. Here, we address the idea that condition‐dependent extrinsic mortality (i.e. simulated predation) may increase the age‐related decline in male reproductive success and with it the potential for sexual conflict, by comparing reproductive ageing in Drosophila melanogaster male/female cohorts exposed (or not) to condition‐dependent simulated predation across time. Although female reproductive senescence was not affected by predation, male reproductive senescence was considerably higher under predation, due mainly to an accelerated decline in offspring viability of ‘surviving’ males with age. This sex‐specific effect suggests that condition‐dependent extrinsic mortality can exacerbate survival‐reproduction trade‐offs in males, which are typically under stronger condition‐dependent selection than females. Interestingly, condition‐dependent extrinsic mortality did not affect mating success, hinting that accelerated reproductive senescence is due to a decrease in male post‐copulatory fitness components. Our results support the recent proposal that male ageing can be an important source of sexual conflict, further suggesting this effect could be exacerbated under more natural conditions.     

Natal location influences movement and survival of a spatially structured population of snail kites

Despite the accepted importance of the need to better understand how natal location affects movement decisions and survival of animals, robust estimates of movement and survival in relation to the natal location are lacking. Our study focuses on movement and survival related to the natal location of snail kites in Florida and shows that kites, in addition to exhibiting a high level of site tenacity to breeding regions, also exhibit particular attraction to their natal region. More specifically, we found that estimates of movement from post-dispersal regions were greater toward natal regions than toward non-natal regions (differences were significant for three of four regions). We also found that estimates of natal philopatry were greater than estimates of philopatry to non-natal regions (differences were statistically significant for two of four regions). A previous study indicated an effect of natal region on juvenile survival; in this study, we show an effect of natal region on adult survival. Estimates of adult survival varied among kites that were hatched in different regions. Adults experienced mortality rates characteristic of the region occupied at the time when survival was measured, but because there is a greater probability that kites will return to their natal region than to any other regions, their survival was ultimately influenced by their natal region. In most years, kites hatched in southern regions had greater survival probabilities than did kites hatched in northern regions. However, during a multiregional drought, one of the northern regions served as a refuge from drought, and during this perturbation, survival was greater for birds hatched in the north. Our study shows that natal location may be important in influencing the ecological dynamics of kites but also highlights the importance of considering temporal variation in habitat conditions of spatially structured systems when attempting to evaluate the conservation value of habitats. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi:) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

SENESCENCE IN NATURAL POPULATIONS OF MAMMALS: A COMPARATIVE STUDY

Here, I use published mortality data from 56 natural populations of mammals to examine evidence for senescence, an increase in the probability of mortality with age. Data on extent of senescence and life history characteristics are compared across taxa in an attempt to test theories for the evolution of senescence in natural populations. In accord with theoretical expectation, senescence is highest in short-lived species with short generation times. In contrast to theoretical expectation, however, senescent increases in mortality rate do not begin until well after age at maturity in most cases. I also present evidence in support of the hypothesis that senescence will be lower in large-brained taxa.     

Comparing individual and population measures of senescence across 10 years in a wild insect population

Declines in survival and performance with advancing age (senescence) have been widely documented in natural populations, but whether patterns of senescence across traits reflect a common underlying process of biological ageing remains unclear. Senescence is typically characterized via assessments of the rate of change in mortality with age (actuarial senescence) or the rate of change in phenotypic performance with age (phenotypic senescence). Although both phenomena are considered indicative of underlying declines in somatic integrity, whether actuarial and phenotypic senescence rates are actually correlated has yet to be established. Here we present evidence of both actuarial and phenotypic senescence from a decade‐long longitudinal field study of wild insects. By tagging every individual and using continuous video monitoring with a network of up to 140 video cameras, we were able to record survival and behavioral data on an entire adult population of field crickets. This reveals that both actuarial and phenotypic senescence vary substantially across 10 annual generations. This variation allows us to identify a strong correlation between actuarial and phenotypic measures of senescence. Our study demonstrates age‐related phenotypic declines reflected in population level mortality rates and reveals that observations of senescence in a single year may not be representative of a general pattern.     

Comparative studies of senescence in natural populations of guppies

Investigators have rarely sought evidence for senescence in natural populations because it is assumed that relatively few individuals will survive long enough in the wild to exhibit the intrinsic increase in mortality with age expected from senescent individuals. Nevertheless, senescence has been documented in some natural populations, mostly in birds and mammals. Here we report on a comparative study of senescence in two natural populations of guppies (Poecilia reticulata). We document senescence as an age-specific increase in mortality rate, with use of mark-recapture studies and implementation of program MARK for analysis of such observations. Extrinsic mortality was controlled for by choosing populations that experience low rates of predation because they coexist with only a single piscine predator (Rivulus hartii). These populations differ in their evolutionary history because one was native to such a site whereas the other was introduced to a site that previously contained no guppies. The source of the introduced guppies was a high-predation population downstream below a barrier waterfall. Theory predicts that the guppies derived from a high-predation locality should experience senescence at an earlier age than the native low-predation population; however, the historical differences among these populations are also confounded with everything else that differs among the two localities. We found that females from a natural low-predation population have delayed senescence compared with the recently established population and hence that the differences among localities in senescence conform to theoretical predictions. The males from natural low-predation environments also had lower overall mortality rates, but contrary to predictions, the pattern of senescence for males did not differ between populations. The difference between the sexes is potentially attributable to two factors that lower the statistical power for distinguishing differences in the age-specific acceleration of mortality in males. One factor is that males have higher mortality rates, so fewer survive to advanced ages. A second is that we had a greater ability to discriminate among older age classes in females. We also found that the introduced population sustained a higher rate of disease than the native low-predation population. Such disease may represent a confounding factor in our comparison, but it may also reflect one of the trade-offs inherent in the life-history differences of these populations.     

Do age‐specific survival patterns of wild boar fit current evolutionary theories of senescence?

Actuarial senescence is widespread in age‐structured populations. In growing populations, the progressive decline of Hamiltonian forces of selection with age leads to decreasing survival. As actuarial senescence is overcompensated by a high fertility, actuarial senescence should be more intense in species with high reproductive effort, a theoretical prediction that has not been yet explicitly tested across species. Wild boar (Sus scrofa) females have an unusual life‐history strategy among large mammals by associating both early and high reproductive effort with potentially long lifespan. Therefore, wild boar females should show stronger actuarial senescence than similar‐sized related mammals. Moreover, being polygynous and much larger than females, males should display higher senescence rates than females. Using a long‐term monitoring (18 years) of a wild boar population, we tested these predictions. We provided clear evidence of actuarial senescence in both sexes. Wild boar females had earlier but not stronger actuarial senescence than similar‐sized ungulates. Both sexes displayed similar senescence rates. Our study indicates that the timing of senescence, not the rate, is associated with the magnitude of fertility in ungulates. This demonstrates the importance of including the timing of senescence in addition to its rate to understand variation in senescence patterns in wild populations.     

Density‐dependent regulation of the critically endangered black rhinoceros population in Ithala Game Reserve,South Africa

Ensuring the persistence of populations of endangered species requires an understanding of, and response to, the causes of population declines. Species occurring in small populations are vulnerable to stochastic problems that are environmental, demographic, or genetic in nature and can reduce survival as much as the deterministic threats of habitat degradation. Critically endangered black rhinoceros (Diceros bicornis) populations declined throughout Africa since 1960, with numbers steadily increasing at a continental level, but remaining lower than three generations ago. However, size, demographics, trends, and factors affecting these, are poorly known. We used 18 years (1990–2008) of long‐term sightings data from Ithala Game Reserve, KwaZulu‐Natal, South Africa, to determine population estimates, growth rate and fecundity over time, as well as sex and age structure and age‐specific probabilities of survival. Calf survivorship between the ages of 0 and 1 year was 74% for females and 94% for males. Age‐specific survivorship for both sexes was significantly higher from yearling to subadult age‐classes (1–6 years) than for adults (7–30 years). The most frequent cause of mortality was attributed to unknown causes while fighting injuries was recorded as the second most common cause of mortality, particularly among subadult and adult males. There was no significant difference in the sex ratios at birth, although the proportion of females in the population was 0.58. There was strong evidence for density‐dependent regulation, with density in conception year a key driver of population performance (birth rate). The population does not appear to be at ecological carrying capacity; however, social effects are delaying conception. To mitigate density‐dependent social effects, we recommend an adaptive management strategy of pre‐selecting individuals for removal from the reserve, so as to maintain stability in the social organization of the population.     

Nasal Discs and the Vital Rates of Lesser Scaup

Nasal discs have been used to identify ducks in studies of survival and reproduction. To date, there has not been a comprehensive assessment of nasal-disc effects on the vital rates of wild ducks. We applied nasal discs to 603 juvenile and 784 adult lesser scaup (Aythya affinis) females from a population breeding in southwest Montana, USA, and released 1,399 juvenile and 71 adult females wearing only metal leg bands between June 2005 and September 2016. Using resighting, recapture, and hunter-recovery data collected from those individuals, we estimated survival and recovery probability with multistate capture-recapture models in Program MARK. We also assessed if recovery distance from our study site and pre-breeding and brood-rearing body condition were diminished for females wearing nasal discs. Model-averaged survival probabilities were 0.231 ± 0.035 (SE) for juveniles and 0.482 ± 0.019 for adults released with nasal discs. Survival was 1.8–3.4 times higher for females released with metal leg bands when compared to those released with nasal discs; survival of these juveniles was 0.433 ± 0.049 and 0.693 ± 0.039 for adults. We did not find evidence for recovery probability or recovery distance varying between females that wore nasal discs and those that did not. During the pre-breeding and brood-rearing seasons, we did not find females wearing nasal discs to be in lower body condition when compared to unmarked females. Our comprehensive assessment of nasal discs on wild lesser scaup suggests that survival probabilities estimated from nasal-marked study populations should be cautiously interpreted as minimum estimates. © 2021 The Wildlife Society.     

Non‐additive effects of density‐dependent and density‐independent factors on brown trout vital rates

Interactions between density‐dependent and density‐independent processes can lead to variation in both growth and survival rates. Detecting such effects, however, will often require sampling on an individual level and at the appropriate spatial and temporal scale. This study documents substantial variation in survival and growth of stream‐dwelling brown trout Salmo trutta from a small Norwegian stream. The data is based on seasonal capture–recaptures of individually marked trout on fixed stations during eight years. The fish were small‐sized, rarely reaching sizes larger than 20 cm and ages older than seven years. Density varied between 0.2–0.8 fish m^?2. Variation in survival and recapture probabilities was analysed using program MARK. Apparent survival (the probability of being alive and present within the study area) generally decreased with increasing trout density and increasing drought level (measured as lowest observed water flow) during both winter and summer. Further, there was a significant interaction effect between density and water flow, indicating that density‐dependent effects on survival predominated when environmental conditions were benign (no drought), while density‐independent processes were most important under harsh environmental conditions (drought). Observed length‐at‐age during autumn indicated a more or less linear growth trajectory throughout life, and no effect of density, water flow or temperature was found. However, using the individual‐based capture–recapture data to estimated specific growth rate, significant positive effects of water flow and temperature and a negative effect of density were identified. Thus, the capture–recapture data suggest a strong potential for population regulation at the rather low densities found in this stream, and regulation may occur both through effects on survival and growth.     

Erratum to: Using multistate capture–mark–recapture models to quantify effects of predation on age-specific survival and population growth in black-tailed deer

Effective species management and conservation relies on accurate estimates of vital rates and an understanding of their link to environmental variables. We used multistate capture–mark–recapture models to directly quantify effects of predation on age-specific survival of black-tailed deer Odocoileus hemionus columbianus in California, USA. Survival probabilities were derived from individual encounter histories of 136 fawns and 57 adults monitored over 4 years. Based on results from our survival analysis we parameterized a Lefkovitch matrix and used elasticity analyses to investigate contributions of mortality due to predation to changes in population growth. We found strong evidence for age-specific survival including senescence. Survival of females >1 year old was consistently low (0.56 ± 0.18 for yearlings, 0.77 ± 0.13 for prime-aged females, and 0.55 ± 0.08 for senescent individuals), primarily due to high puma Puma concolor predation during summer. Predation from black bears Ursus americanus and coyotes Canis latrans was the primary cause for low annual survival of fawns (0.24 ± 0.16). Resulting estimates of population growth rates were indicative of a strongly declining population (λ = 0.82 ± 0.13). Despite high sensitivity to changes in adult survival, results from a lower-level elasticity analysis suggested that predation on fawns was the most significant individual mortality component affecting population decline. Our results provide a rare, direct link between predation, age-specific survival and the predicted population decline of a common ungulate species. The magnitude of predation was unexpected and suggests that ungulates in multi-predator systems struggle to cope with simultaneous reductions in survival probabilities from predators targeting different age classes.     

Individual covariation in life-history traits: seeing the trees despite the forest

We investigated the influence of age on survival and breeding rates in a long-lived species Rissa tridactyla using models with individual random effects permitting variation and covariation in fitness components among individuals. Differences in survival or breeding probabilities among individuals are substantial, and there was positive covariation between survival and breeding probability; birds that were more likely to survive were also more likely to breed, given that they survived. The pattern of age-related variation in these rates detected at the individual level differed from that observed at the population level. Our results provided confirmation of what has been suggested by other investigators: within-cohort phenotypic selection can mask senescence. Although this phenomenon has been extensively studied in humans and captive animals, conclusive evidence of the discrepancy between population-level and individual-level patterns of age-related variation in life-history traits is extremely rare in wild animal populations. Evolutionary studies of the influence of age on life-history traits should use approaches differentiating population level from the genuine influence of age: only the latter is relevant to theories of life-history evolution. The development of models permitting access to individual variation in fitness is a promising advance for the study of senescence and evolutionary processes.     

Antagonistic pleiotropy,mortality source interactions,and the evolutionary theory of senescence

Abstract.— Most theoretical work on the evolution of senescence has assumed that all individuals within a population are equally susceptible to extrinsic sources of mortality. An influential qualitative prediction based on this assumption is Williams's hypothesis, which states that more rapid senescence is expected to evolve when the magnitude of such extrinsic mortality sources is increased. Much evidence suggests, however, that for many groups of organisms externally imposed mortality risk is a function of an organism's internal condition and hence susceptibility to such hazards. Here we use a model of antagonistic pleiotropy to investigate the consequences that such interactions (between environmental hazard and internal condition) can have for Williams's hypothesis. As with some previous theory examining nonin-teractive extrinsic mortality sources, we find that an increase in interactive extrinsic sources of mortality makes it less likely that an individual will survive from birth to any given age, weakening selection against physiological deterioration at all ages and thus favoring more rapid senescence. However, an increase in interactive mortality sources also typically strengthens selection against physiological deterioration at any age, given an individual has survived to that age, because it reduces the fitness of poor-condition individuals more than good-condition individuals. These opposing effects are not felt equally at all ages, with the latter predominating at early ages. The combined effects can therefore result in the novel prediction that an increase in interactive extrinsic mortality sources can select for slower senescent deterioration early in life but more rapid deterioration late in life.     

Senescence or selective disappearance? Age trajectories of body mass in wild and captive populations of a small-bodied primate

Classic theories of ageing consider extrinsic mortality (EM) a major factor in shaping longevity and ageing, yet most studies of functional ageing focus on species with low EM. This bias may cause overestimation of the influence of senescent declines in performance over condition-dependent mortality on demographic processes across taxa. To simultaneously investigate the roles of functional senescence (FS) and intrinsic, extrinsic and condition-dependent mortality in a species with a high predation risk in nature, we compared age trajectories of body mass (BM) in wild and captive grey mouse lemurs (Microcebus murinus) using longitudinal data (853 individuals followed through adulthood). We found evidence of non-random mortality in both settings. In captivity, the oldest animals showed senescence in their ability to regain lost BM, whereas no evidence of FS was found in the wild. Overall, captive animals lived longer, but a reversed sex bias in lifespan was observed between wild and captive populations. We suggest that even moderately condition-dependent EM may lead to negligible FS in the wild. While high EM may act to reduce the average lifespan, this evolutionary process may be counteracted by the increased fitness of the long-lived, high-quality individuals.     

Effects of winter food provisioning on the phenotypes of breeding blue tits

Throughout the Western World, huge numbers of people regularly supply food for wild birds. However, evidence of negative impacts of winter feeding on future reproduction has highlighted a need to improve understanding of the underlying mechanisms shaping avian responses to supplementary food. Here, we test the possibility that carry‐over effects are mediated via their impact on the phenotypes of breeding birds, either by influencing the phenotypic structure of populations through changes in winter survival and/or by more direct effects on the condition of breeding birds. Using a landscape‐scale 3‐year study of blue tits (Cyanistes caeruleus), we demonstrate the importance of nutritional composition of supplementary food in determining carry‐over effect outcomes. We show that breeding populations which had access to vitamin E‐rich foods during the previous winter were comprised of individuals with reduced feather carotenoid concentrations, indicative of lower pre‐feeding phenotypic condition, compared to fat‐fed and unfed populations. This suggests that supplementary feeding in winter can result in altered population phenotypic structure at the time of breeding, perhaps by enhancing survival and recruitment of lower quality individuals. However, supplementation of a fat‐rich diet during winter was detrimental to the oxidative state of breeding birds, with these phenotypic differences ultimately found to impact upon reproductive success. Our findings demonstrate the complex nature by which supplementary feeding can influence wild bird populations.     

Predation by Bears Drives Senescence in Natural Populations of Salmon

Classic evolutionary theory predicts that populations experiencing higher rates of environmentally caused (“extrinsic”) mortality should senesce more rapidly, but this theory usually neglects plausible relationships between an individual''s senescent condition and its susceptibility to extrinsic mortality. We tested for the evolutionary importance of this condition dependence by comparing senescence rates among natural populations of sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) subject to varying degrees of predation by brown bears (Ursus arctos). We related senescence rates in six populations to (1) the overall rate of extrinsic mortality, and (2) the degree of condition dependence in this mortality. Senescence rates were determined by modeling the mortality of individually-tagged breeding salmon at each site. The overall rate of extrinsic mortality was estimated as the long-term average of the annual percentage of salmon killed by bears. The degree of condition dependence was estimated as the extent to which bears killed salmon that exhibited varying degrees of senescence. We found that the degree of condition dependence in extrinsic mortality was very important in driving senescence: populations where bears selectively killed fish showing advanced senescence were those that senesced least rapidly. The overall rate of extrinsic mortality also contributed to among-population variation in senescence-but to a lesser extent. Condition-dependent susceptibility to extrinsic mortality should be incorporated more often into theoretical models and should be explicitly tested in natural populations.