Stochastic analogues of deterministic single-species population models

Although single-species deterministic difference equations have long been used in modeling the dynamics of animal populations, little attention has been paid to how stochasticity should be incorporated into these models. By deriving stochastic analogues to difference equations from first principles, we show that the form of these models depends on whether noise in the population process is demographic or environmental. When noise is demographic, we argue that variance around the expectation is proportional to the expectation. When noise is environmental the variance depends in a non-trivial way on how variation enters into model parameters, but we argue that if the environment affects the population multiplicatively then variance is proportional to the square of the expectation. We compare various stochastic analogues of the Ricker map model by fitting them, using maximum likelihood estimation, to data generated from an individual-based model and the weevil data of Utida. Our demographic models are significantly better than our environmental models at fitting noise generated by population processes where noise is mainly demographic. However, the traditionally chosen stochastic analogues to deterministic models--additive normally distributed noise and multiplicative lognormally distributed noise--generally fit all data sets well. Thus, the form of the variance does play a role in the fitting of models to ecological time series, but may not be important in practice as first supposed.     

Equivalence relationships between stage-structured population models

Matrix population models are widely applied in conservation ecology to help predict future population trends and guide conservation effort. Researchers must decide upon an appropriate level of model complexity, yet there is little theoretical work to guide such decisions. In this paper we present an analysis of a stage-structured model, and prove that the model's structure can be simplified and parameterised in such a way that the long-term growth rate, the stable-stage distribution and the generation time are all invariant to the simplification. We further show that for certain structures of model the simplified models require less effort in data collection. We also discuss features of the models which are not invariant to the simplification and the implications of our results for the selection of an appropriate model. We illustrate the ideas using a population model for short-tailed shearwaters (Puffinus tenuirostris). In this example, model simplification can increase parameter elasticity, indicating that an intermediate level of complexity is likely to be preferred.     

Evolutionarily stable transition rates in a stage-structured model. An application to the analysis of size distributions of badges of social status

This paper deals with the adaptive dynamics associated to a hierarchical non-linear discrete population model with a general transition matrix. In the model, individuals are categorized into n dominance classes, newborns lie in the subordinate class, and it is considered as evolutionary trait a vector eta of probabilities of transition among classes. For this trait, we obtain the evolutionary singular strategy and prove its neutral evolutionary stability. Finally, we obtain conditions for the invading potential of such a strategy, which is sufficient for the convergence stability of the latter. With the help of the previous results, we provide an explanation for the bimodal distribution of badges of status observed in the Siskin (Carduelis spinus). In the Siskin, as in several bird species, patches of pigmented plumage signal the dominance status of the bearer to opponents, and central to the discussion on the evolution of status signalling is the understanding of which should be the frequency distribution of badge sizes. Though some simple verbal models predicted a bimodal distribution, up to now most species display normal distributions and bimodality has only been described for the Siskin. In this paper, we give conditions leading to one of these two distributions in terms of the survival, fecundity and aggression rates in each dominance class.     

Permanence of a stage-structured predator-prey system with a class of functional responses

A stage-structured predator-prey system incorporating a class of functional responses is presented in this article. By analyzing the system and using the standard comparison theorem, the sufficient conditions are derived for permanence of the system and non-permanence of predators.     

Permanence of discrete-time Kolmogorov systems for two species and saturated fixed points

This paper considers the dynamics of a discrete-time Kolmogorov system for two-species populations. In particular, permanence of the system is considered. Permanence is one of the concepts to describe the species coexistence. By using the method of an average Liapunov function, we have found a simple sufficient condition for permanence of the system. That is, nonexistence of saturated boundary fixed points is enough for permanence of the system under some appropriate convexity or concavity properties for the population growth rate functions. Numerical investigations show that for the system with population growth rate functions without such properties, the nonexistence of saturated boundary fixed points is not sufficient for permanence, actually a boundary periodic orbit or a chaotic orbit can be attractive despite the existence of a stable coexistence fixed point. This result implies, in particular, that existence of a stable coexistence fixed point is not sufficient for permanence.     

The effect of seasonal harvesting on stage-structured population models

In most models of population dynamics, increases in population due to birth are assumed to be time-independent, but many species reproduce only during a single period of the year. We propose an exploited single-species model with stage structure for the dynamics in a fish population for which births occur in a single pulse once per time period. Since birth pulse populations are often characterized with a discrete time dynamical system determined by its Poincaré map, we explore the consequences of harvest timing to equilibrium population sizes under seasonal dependence and obtain threshold conditions for their stability, and show that the timing of harvesting has a strong impact on the persistence of the fish population, on the volume of mature fish stock and on the maximum annual-sustainable yield. Moreover, our results imply that the population can sustain much higher harvest rates if the mature fish is removed as early in the season (after the birth pulse) as possible. Further, the effects of harvesting effort and harvest timing on the dynamical complexity are also investigated. Bifurcation diagrams are constructed with the birth rate (or harvesting effort or harvest timing) as the bifurcation parameter, and these are observed to display rich structure, including chaotic bands with periodic windows, pitch-fork and tangent bifurcations, non-unique dynamics (meaning that several attractors coexist) and attractor crisis. This suggests that birth pulse, in effect, provides a natural period or cyclicity that makes the dynamical behavior more complex.This work is supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (10171106)     

The effect of dispersal on single-species nonautonomous dispersal models with delays

In this paper, single-species nonautonomous dispersal models with delays are considered. An interesting result on the effect of dispersal for persistence and extinction is obtained. That is, if the species is persistent in a patch then it is also persistent in all other patches; if the species is permanent in a patch then it is also permanent in all other patches; if the species is extinct in a patch then it is also extinct in all other patches. Furthermore, some new sufficient conditions for the permanence and extinction of the species in a patch are established. The existence of positive periodic solutions is obtained in the periodic case by employing Teng and Chen's results on the existence of positive periodic solutions for functional differential equations. Received: 26 June 2000 / Revised version: 6 October 2000 / Published online: 10 April 2001     

Stability of discrete age-structured and aggregated delay-difference population models

Sufficiency conditions for local stability are derived for a class of density dependent Leslie matrix models. Four of the recruitment functions in common use in fisheries management are then considered. In two of these oscillating instability can never occur (Beverton and Holt and Cushing forms). In the other two (Deriso-Schnute and Shepherd forms) undamped oscillations are possible within the region of parameter space described here. An algorithm is developed for calculating necessary and sufficient local stability conditions for a simplified form of the general age-structured model. The complete spectrum of stability states (monotonic stability; monotonic instability; oscillating-stable; oscillating-unstable) and the bifurcation periods are given for selected examples of this model. The examples cover a large portion of the parameter space of interest in resource management. It is shown that in perfectly deterministic systems which are observed with error, oscillating instabilities may be missed, and such systems could be erroneously assumed to be stable.     

Estimating the effect of continual disturbances on discrete-time population models

In this paper, methods for estimating the effect of continual (but bounded) disturbances on ecosystems modelled by difference equations are discussed. The approach adopted is to estimate the region of state space (called a reachable set) which can be reached by the disturbed system from an initial healthy state in a given time period. Liapunov stability methods for estimating these reachable sets are presented and applied to two specific population models.     

Island models and the coalescent process

Using a coalescent approach, we derive several classical results and extend them to more general models. We find that the classic result for constant population size and constant migration rates holds in models with varying population size and varying migration rates with the obvious substitution of effective population size and mean migration fraction. In addition, the relationship of a 'local' F _ST to local gene flow is derived. This result may be useful for analysing gene flow in a regional subset of a large global population, using only data from the regional subset.     

Structured models of metapopulation dynamics

I develop models of metapopulation dynamics that describe changes in the numbers of individuals within patches. These models are analogous to structured population models, with patches playing the role of individuals. Single species models which do not include the effect of immigration on local population dynamics of occupied patches typically lead to a unique equilibrium. The models can be used to study the distributions of numbers of individuals among patches, showing that both metapopulations with local outbreaks and metapopulations without outbreaks can occur in systems with no underlying environmental variability. Distributions of local population sizes (in occupied patches) can vary independently of the total population size, so both patterns of distributions of local population sizes are compatible with either rare or common species. Models which include the effect of immigration on local population dynamics can lead to two positive equilibria, one stable and one unstable, the latter representing a threshold between regional extinction and persistence.     

Evolutionary rescue beyond the models

Laboratory model systems and mathematical models have shed considerable light on the fundamental properties and processes of evolutionary rescue. But it remains to determine the extent to which these model-based findings can help biologists predict when evolution will fail or succeed in rescuing natural populations that are facing novel conditions that threaten their persistence. In this article, we present a prospectus for transferring our basic understanding of evolutionary rescue to wild and other non-laboratory populations. Current experimental and theoretical results emphasize how the interplay between inheritance processes and absolute fitness in changed environments drive population dynamics and determine prospects of extinction. We discuss the challenge of inferring these elements of the evolutionary rescue process in field and natural settings. Addressing this challenge will contribute to a more comprehensive understanding of population persistence that combines processes of evolutionary rescue with developmental and ecological mechanisms.     

A chronology of plankton dynamics in silico: how computer models have been used to study marine ecosystems

Research on plankton ecology in the oceans has traditionally been conducted via two scientific approaches: in situ (in the field) and in vitro (in the laboratory). There is, however, a third approach: exploring plankton dynamics in silico, or using computer models as tools to study marine ecosystems. Models have been used for this purpose for over 60 years, and the innovations and implementations of historical studies provide a context for how future model applications can continue to advance our understanding. To that end, this paper presents a chronology of the in silico approach to plankton dynamics, beginning with modeling pioneers who worked in the days before computers. During the first 30 years of automated computation, plankton modeling focused on formulations for biological processes and investigations of community structure. The changing technological context and conceptual paradigms of the late-1970s and 1980s resulted in simulations becoming more widespread research tools for biological oceanographers. This period saw rising use of models as hypothesis-testing tools, and means of exploring the effects of circulation on spatial distributions of organisms. Continued computer advances and increased availability of data in the 1990s allowed old approaches to be applied to old and new problems, and led to developments of new approaches. Much of the modeling in the new millennium so far has incorporated these sophistications, and many cutting-edge applications have come from a new generation of plankton scientists who were trained by modeling gurus of previous eras. The future directions for modeling plankton dynamics are rooted in the historical studies.     

DEBtox theory and matrix population models as helpful tools in understanding the interaction between toxic cyanobacteria and zooplankton

Bioassays were performed to find out how field samples of the toxic cyanobacteria Microcystis aeruginosa affect Moina micrura, a cladoceran found in the tropical Jacarepagua Lagoon (Rio de Janeiro, Brazil). The DEBtox (Dynamic Energy Budget theory applied to toxicity data) approach has been proposed for use in analysing chronic toxicity tests as an alternative to calculating the usual safety parameters (NOEC, ECx). DEBtox theory deals with the energy balance between physiological processes (assimilation, maintenance, growth and reproduction), and it can be used to investigate and compare various hypotheses concerning the mechanism of action of a toxicant. Even though the DEBtox framework was designed for standard toxicity bioassays carried out with standard species (fish, daphnids), we applied the growth and reproduction models to M. micrura, by adapting the data available using a weight-length allometric relationship. Our modelling approach appeared to be very relevant at the individual level, and confirmed previous conclusions about the toxic mechanism. In our study we also wanted to assess the toxic effects at the population level, which is a more relevant endpoint in risk assessment. We therefore incorporated both lethal and sublethal toxic effects in a matrix population model used to calculate the finite rate of population change as a continuous function of the exposure concentration. Alongside this calculation, we constructed a confidence band to predict the critical exposure concentration for population health. Finally, we discuss our findings with regard to the prospects for further refining the analysis of ecotoxicological data.     

Global stability in chemostat-type plankton models with delayed nutrient recycling

 In this paper, we consider chemostat-type plankton models in which plankton feeds on a limiting nutrient and the nutrient is supplied at a constant rate and is partially recycled after the death of plankton by bacterial decomposition. We use a distributed delay to describe nutrient recycling and a discrete delay to model the planktonic growth response to nutrient uptake. When one or both delays occur, by constructing Liapunov functionals, we obtain some sufficient conditions for the global attractivity of the positive equilibrium, which can be regarded as estimates of the delays for persistence of global attractivity. Received: 9 January 1996 / Revised version: 1 October 1997     

A Review of urban density models: Toward a resolution of the conflict between populace and planner

The belief that high density is stressful and unhealthy has contributed to a decline in urban density in many countries, particularly North America and Australia. Yet many physical planners are calling for an increase in urban density. Many human or individual-oriented studies (which involve ethological models, sociological models, and psychological models) have been used to suggest negative effects of urban density. This article raises questions about these conclusions and presents evidence from recent studies which suggests more positive human aspects of urban density. The physical or systems-oriented studies (which involve economic, ecological, historical, and engineering models) suggest advantages in costs, energy, environment, and transport from increasing urban density. The resolution of the conflict between populace and planner is suggested to include greater awareness of mutual benefits from increased density, better planning and design, and encouragement of the more positive human aspects of higher urban density.     

具有吸收状态的昆虫种群矩阵模型的研究

在Vandermeer的昆虫矩阵模型的基础上,提出了具有吸收状态的昆虫种群矩阵模型。并且导出了k步吸收状态与转移状态的矩阵表达式,将有助于昆虫种群动态的研究．     

Integral projection models perform better for small demographic data sets than matrix population models: a case study of two perennial herbs

1. Matrix population models are widely used to describe population dynamics, conduct population viability analyses and derive management recommendations for plant populations. For endangered or invasive species, management decisions are often based on small demographic data sets. Hence, there is a need for population models which accurately assess population performance from such small data sets.
2. We used demographic data on two perennial herbs with different life histories to compare the accuracy and precision of the traditional matrix population model and the recently developed integral projection model (IPM) in relation to the amount of data.
3. For large data sets both matrix models and IPMs produced identical estimates of population growth rate (λ). However, for small data sets containing fewer than 300 individuals, IPMs often produced smaller bias and variance for λ than matrix models despite different matrix structures and sampling techniques used to construct the matrix population models.
4. Synthesis and applications . Our results suggest that the smaller bias and variance of λ estimates make IPMs preferable to matrix population models for small demographic data sets with a few hundred individuals. These results are likely to be applicable to a wide range of herbaceous, perennial plant species where demographic fate can be modelled as a function of a continuous state variable such as size. We recommend the use of IPMs to assess population performance and management strategies particularly for endangered or invasive perennial herbs where little demographic data are available.