Effects of acquired immunity and mating strategy on the genetic structure of parasite populations

Although it may have profound effects on how researchers seek to tackle many infectious diseases, little is known of the genetic structure of many pathogen populations. Previous models have suggested that if levels of cross-protection are high, parasite populations may be structured into discrete strains with nonoverlapping antigenic repertoires, even among populations that reproduce sexually. Here, I consider a discrete model of the coevolution of parasites with host-acquired immunity. In this model, if the effective recombination rate is low, strain structure can be maintained for very high levels of cross-protection. However, if the effective recombination rate is higher, this strain structure can no longer be maintained. The effective recombination rate is affected by the actual recombination rate between immunologically selected loci, the proportion of individuals that reproduce sexually, whether recombination occurs inside or outside of the host or vector, and the level of cross-protection. The model predicts that for Plasmodium falciparum, where reproduction occurs inside of a vector, we expect to see strain structure in areas of low transmission but not in areas of high transmission. Strain structure is unlikely to be seen in parasites that reproduce outside of a host or vector, such as Strongyloides ratti.     

Antigenic distance and cross-immunity, invasibility and coexistence of pathogen strains in an epidemiological model with discrete antigenic space

In models of pathogen interaction and evolution discrete genotypes in the form of bit strings may be mapped to points in a discrete phenotype space based on similarity in antigenic structure. Cross-immunity between strains, that is the reduction in susceptibility to strain A conferred to a host by infection with strain B, can then be defined for pairs of points in the antigenic space by a specified function. Analysis of an SIR type model shows that, if two strains are at equilibrium, the shape of the cross-immunity function has a strong influence on the invasion and coexistence of a third strain and, consequently, the expected evolutionary pathway. A function that is constant except for discontinuities at the end points is expected to result in the accumulation of diversity until a pair of discordant strains occurs that can, depending on parameter values, exclude all other strains. For a function of the form f(h)=h^q, where h is the antigenic distance between two strains, invasion and coexistence is always possible if q≤1 and little antigenic structure is expected in the pathogen population. However, if q>1 invasion and coexistence may be impossible, depending on parameter values, and the pathogen population is expected to show significant antigenic structuring. In addition to illuminating the role of cross-immunity in pathogen evolution, this analysis indicates that the choice of cross-immunity function, the representation of immunity acquired from multiple previous infections and the number of elements used to characterize the antigenic space must be carefully considered in the development and interpretation of more sophisticated models of pathogen dynamics and evolution.     

Population structure of pathogens: the role of immune selection

Sunetra Gupta and Roy Anderson discuss how the balance between host immune responses against conserved and variable antigens shapes the population structure of pathogens. At one extreme, immune selection against polymorphic determinants can cause pathogen populations to self-organize spontaneously into discrete antigenic types that may either be maintained over long periods or undergo cyclical or chaotic fluctuations. At the other extreme, diversity may be drastically reduced by competition induced by a strong immune response against a conserved determinant. Where does each pathogen lie along this continuum? How would this knowledge influence our attempts to control an infectious disease?     

The effects of host heterogeneity on pathogen population structure.

We have shown that among pathogens, populations may self-organize into strains with non-overlapping repertoires of antigenic variants as a consequence of strong immune selection operating on polymorphic antigens. Recently, we have also demonstrated that over a wide range of intermediate levels of immune selection, pathogens may still be structured into discrete strains, but different sets of non-overlapping pathogen types will replace each other in a cyclical or chaotic manner. These models assume that the ranking of antigens in terms of the strength of the induced immune response is the same for every host. However, host immune responses may be restricted by the genotype of the individual. To explore this issue, a mathematical model was constructed under the assumption that a proportion of the host population responds principally to a variable antigen while the remainder of the population responds principally to a conserved antigen. The results of this analysis indicate that discrete strain structure (DSS) will be maintained even with a high frequency of hosts that do not respond in a variant-specific manner. Furthermore, the range of the immune selection pressure over which DSS prevails is increased (and the region of cyclical or chaotic behaviour reduced) by the inclusion of hosts that respond in a cross-reactive rather than a variant-specific manner.     

Vaccination and the population structure of antigenically diverse pathogens that exchange genetic material.

Populations of antigenically diverse pathogens undergoing genetic exchange may be categorized into strains on the basis of a set of principal protective antigens. The extent to which polyvalent vaccines based on these protective antigens can alter the population structure of the pathogen is determined by the degree of cross-protection between strains. In the case where there is no cross-protection, vaccinating against a particular strain will have no effect on the others. As cross-protection increases, the strains containing the antigenic variants included in the vaccine will be diminished in prevalence, and those that do not will increase in prevalence. The rise in prevalence of the latter will become more and more exaggerated as cross-protection increases. However, beyond a critical level of cross-protection, in the absence of vaccination, the steady state of the system is asymmetric in that a certain subset of strains (with non-overlapping repertoires of antigenic variants) will dominate over the others in terms of prevalence. Under these circumstances, a vaccine consisting of the most immunogenic combinations of antigenic variants can cause a dramatic increase in frequency of a subset of rare strains.     

The ecology of antigenic variation

A detailed molecular analysis using recombinant DNA technologies is extremely important to our understanding of the phenomena of antigenic variation in the African trypanosomes; however, by itself, it may not completely explain antigenic variation as it occurs in vivo. Several laboratories have demonstrated the ability of one variant population to replace another in vivo as well as the presence of heterogeneous populations of trypanosomes within an individual animal. These two phenomena do not permit us to explain antigen variation solely on the basis of the molecular regulation of variant antigen expression. In addition to studies in molecular biology, it will be necessary to define clearly the differences in growth rates of variant populations and the role of competition between these variants in a single anatomical site. It will also be necessary to determine the influence of various physiological environments on growth rates and the competition between the different variants of a single repertoire. It is concluded that the phenomenon of antigenic variation is a complex problem in ecology and population dynamics as well as molecular regulation. This paper is designated to examine a variety of the ecological parameters presumably involved in antigenic variation.     

The Ecology of Antigenic Variation1,2

A detailed molecular analysis using recombinant DNA technologies is extremely important to our understanding of the phenomena of antigenic variation in the African trypanosomes; however, by itself, it may not completely explain antigenic variation as it occurs in vivo. Several laboratories have demonstrated the ability of one variant population to replace another in vivo as well as the presence of heterogeneous populations of trypanosomes within an individual animal. These two phenomena do not permit us to explain antigen variation solely on the basis of the molecular regulation of variant antigen expression. In addition to studies in molecular biology, it will be necessary to define clearly the differences in growth rates of variant populations and the role of competition between these variants in a single anatomical site. It will also be necessary to determine the influence of various physiological environments on growth rates and the competition between the different variants of a single repertoire. It is concluded that the phenomenon of antigenic variation is a complex problem in ecology and population dynamics as well as molecular regulation. This paper is designated to examine a variety of the ecological parameters presumably involved in antigenic variation.     

The effect of host heterogeneity and parasite intragenomic interactions on parasite population structure

Understanding the processes that shape the genetic structure of parasite populations and the functional consequences of different parasite genotypes is critical for our ability to predict how an infection can spread through a host population and for the design of effective vaccines to combat infection and disease. Here, we examine how the genetic structure of parasite populations responds to host genetic heterogeneity. We consider the well-characterized molecular specificity of major histocompatibility complex binding of antigenic peptides to derive deterministic and stochastic models. We use these models to ask, firstly, what conditions favour the evolution of generalist parasite genotypes versus specialist parasite genotypes? Secondly, can parasite genotypes coexist in a population? We find that intragenomic interactions between parasite loci encoding antigenic peptides are pivotal in determining the outcome of evolution. Where parasite loci interact synergistically (i.e. the recognition of additional antigenic peptides has a disproportionately large effect on parasite fitness), generalist parasite genotypes are favoured. Where parasite loci act multiplicatively (have independent effects on fitness) or antagonistically (have diminishing effects on parasite fitness), specialist parasite genotypes are favoured. A key finding is that polymorphism is not stable and that, with respect to functionally important antigenic peptides, parasite populations are dominated by a single genotype.     

Cross-immunity, invasion and coexistence of pathogen strains in epidemiological models with one-dimensional antigenic space

Several epidemic models with many co-circulating strains have shown that partial cross-immunity between otherwise identical strains of a pathogen can lead to exclusion of a subset of the strains. Here we examine the mechanisms behind these solutions by considering a host population in which two strains are endemic and ask when it can be invaded by a third strain. If the function relating antigenic distance to cross-immunity is strictly concave or linear invasion is always possible. If the function is strictly convex and has an initial gradient of zero invasion depends on the degree of antigenic similarity between strains and the basic reproductive number. Examining specific concave and convex functions shows that the shape of the cross-immunity function affects the role of secondary infections in invasion. The basic reproductive number affects the importance of tertiary infections. Thus the form of the relationship between antigenic distance and cross-immunity determines whether the pathogen population will consist of an unstructured cloud of strains or a limited number of strains with strong antigenic structuring. In the latter case the basic reproductive number determines the maximum number of strains that can coexist. Analysis of the evolutionary trajectory shows that attaining the maximum diversity requires large spontaneous changes in antigenic structure and cannot result from a sequence of small point mutations alone.     

On the determinants of population structure in antigenically diverse pathogens

Many pathogens exhibit antigenic diversity and elicit strain-specific immune responses. This potential for cross-immunity structure in the host resource motivates the development of mathematical models, stressing competition for susceptible hosts in driving pathogen population dynamics and genetics. Here we establish that certain model formulations exhibit characteristics of prototype pattern-forming systems, with pathogen population structure emerging as three possible patterns: (i) incidence is steady and homogeneous; (ii) incidence is steady but heterogeneous; and (iii) incidence shows oscillatory dynamics, with travelling waves in strain-space. Results are robust to strain number, but sensitive to the mechanism of cumulative immunity.     

The evolutionary dynamics of direct phenotypic overdominance: emergence possible, loss probable

An evolutionary dynamical system with explicit diploid genetics is used to investigate the likelihood of observing phenotypically overdominant heterozygotes versus heterozygous phenotypes that are intermediate between the homozygotes. In this model, body size evolves in a population with discrete demographic episodes and with competition limiting reproduction. A genotype-phenotype map for body size is used that can generate the two qualitative types of dominance interactions (overdominance versus intermediate dominance). It is written as a single-locus model with one focal locus and parameters summarizing the effects of alleles at other loci. Two types of evolutionarily stable strategy (ESS; continuously stable strategy, CSS) occur. The ESS is generated either (1) by the population ecology; or (2) by a local maximum of the genotype-phenotype map. Overdominant heterozygotes are expected to arise if the population evolves toward the second type of ESS, where nearly maximum body sizes are found. When other loci with partially dominant inheritance also evolve, the location of the maximum in the genotype-phenotype map repeatedly changes. It is unlikely that an evolving population will track these changes; ESSs of the second type now are at best quasi-stationary states of the evolutionary dynamics. Considering the restrictions on its probability, a pattern of phenotypic overdominance is expected to be rare.     

Mycoplasma genitalium: an efficient strategy to generate genetic variation from a minimal genome

Mycoplasma genitalium, a human pathogen associated with sexually transmitted diseases, is unique in that it has smallest genome of any known free-living organism. The goal of this study was to investigate if and how M. genitalium uses a minimal genome to generate genetic variations. We analysed the sequence variability of the third gene (MG192 or mgpC) of the M. genitalium MgPa adhesion operon, demonstrated that the MG192 gene is highly variable among and within M. genitalium strains in vitro and in vivo, and identified MG192 sequence shifts in the course of in vitro passage of the G37 type strain and in sequential specimens from an M. genitalium-infected patient. In order to establish the origin of the MG192 variants, we examined nine genomic loci containing partial copies of the MgPa operon, known as MgPar sequences. Our analysis suggests that the MG192 sequence variation is achieved by recombination between the MG192 expression site and MgPar sequences via gene cross-over and, possibly, also by gene conversion. It appears plausible that M. genitalium has the ability to generate unlimited variants from its minimized genome, which presumably allows the organism to adapt to diverse environments and/or to evade host defences by antigenic variation.     

Speciation through competition: a critical review

We examined causes of speciation in asexual populations in both sympatry and parapatry, providing an alternative explanation for the speciation patterns reported by Dieckmann and Doebeli (1999) and Doebeli and Dieckmann (2003). Both in sympatry and parapatry, they find that speciation occurs relatively easily. We reveal that in the sympatric clonal model, the equilibrium distribution is continuous and the disruptive selection driving evolution of discrete clusters is only transient. Hence, if discrete phenotypes are to remain stable in the sympatric sexual model, there should be some source of nontransient disruptive selection that will drive evolution of assortment. We analyze sexually reproducing populations using the Bulmer's infinitesimal model and show that cost-free assortment alone leads to speciation and disruptive selection only arises when the optimal distribution cannot be matched--in this example, because the phenotypic range is limited. In addition, Doebeli and Dieckmann's analyses assumed a high genetic variance and a high mutation rate. Thus, these theoretical models do not support the conclusion that sympatric speciation is a likely outcome of competition for resources. In their parapatric model (Doebeli and Dieckmann 2003), clustering into distinct phenotypes is driven by edge effects, rather than by frequency-dependent competition.     

The evolution of genetic architecture under frequency-dependent disruptive selection

We propose a model to analyze a quantitative trait under frequency-dependent disruptive selection. Selection on the trait is a combination of stabilizing selection and intraspecific competition, where competition is maximal between individuals with equal phenotypes. In addition, there is a density-dependent component induced by population regulation. The trait is determined additively by a number of biallelic loci, which can have different effects on the trait value. In contrast to most previous models, we assume that the allelic effects at the loci can evolve due to epistatic interactions with the genetic background. Using a modifier approach, we derive analytical results under the assumption of weak selection and constant population size, and we investigate the full model by numerical simulations. We find that frequency-dependent disruptive selection favors the evolution of a highly asymmetric genetic architecture, where most of the genetic variation is concentrated on a small number of loci. We show that the evolution of genetic architecture can be understood in terms of the ecological niches created by competition. The phenotypic distribution of a population with an adapted genetic architecture closely matches this niche structure. Thus, evolution of the genetic architecture seems to be a plausible way for populations to adapt to regimes of frequency-dependent disruptive selection. As such, it should be seen as a potential evolutionary pathway to discrete polymorphisms and as a potential alternative to other evolutionary responses, such as the evolution of sexual dimorphism or assortative mating.     

CD4+T cells do not mediate within-host competition between genetically diverse malaria parasites

Ecological interactions between microparasite populations in the same host are an important source of selection on pathogen traits such as virulence and drug resistance. In the rodent malaria model Plasmodium chabaudi in laboratory mice, parasites that are more virulent can competitively suppress less virulent parasites in mixed infections. There is evidence that some of this suppression is due to immune-mediated apparent competition, where an immune response elicited by one parasite population suppress the population density of another. This raises the question whether enhanced immunity following vaccination would intensify competitive interactions, thus strengthening selection for virulence in Plasmodium populations. Using the P. chabaudi model, we studied mixed infections of virulent and avirulent genotypes in CD4+T cell-depleted mice. Enhanced efficacy of CD4+T cell-dependent responses is the aim of several candidate malaria vaccines. We hypothesized that if immune-mediated interactions were involved in competition, removal of the CD4+T cells would alleviate competitive suppression of the avirulent parasite. Instead, we found no alleviation of competition in the acute phase, and significant enhancement of competitive suppression after parasite densities had peaked. Thus, the host immune response may actually be alleviating other forms of competition, such as that over red blood cells. Our results suggest that the CD4+-dependent immune response, and mechanisms that act to enhance it such as vaccination, may not have the undesirable affect of exacerbating within-host competition and hence the strength of this source of selection for virulence.     

An integrated model of Plasmodium falciparum dynamics

The within-host and between-host dynamics of malaria are linked in myriad ways, but most obviously by gametocytes, the parasite blood forms transmissible from human to mosquito. Gametocyte dynamics depend on those of non-transmissible blood forms, which stimulate immune responses, impeding transmission as well as within-host parasite densities. These dynamics can, in turn, influence antigenic diversity and recombination between genetically distinct parasites. Here, we embed a differential-equation model of parasite-immune system interactions within each of the individual humans represented in a discrete-event model of Plasmodium falciparum transmission, and examine the effects of human population turnover, parasite antigenic diversity, recombination, and gametocyte production on the dynamics of malaria. Our results indicate that the local persistence of P. falciparum increases with turnover in the human population and antigenic diversity in the parasite, particularly in combination, and that antigenic diversity arising from meiotic recombination in the parasite has complex differential effects on the persistence of founder and progeny genotypes. We also find that reductions in the duration of individual human infectivity to mosquitoes, even if universal, produce population-level effects only if near-absolute, and that, in competition, the persistence and prevalence of parasite genotypes with gametocyte production concordant with data exceed those of genotypes with higher gametocyte production. This new, integrated approach provides a framework for investigating relationships between pathogen dynamics within an individual host and pathogen dynamics within interacting host and vector populations.     

Polymorphism in multilocus host parasite coevolutionary interactions

Numerous loci in host organisms are involved in parasite recognition, such as major histocompatibility complex (MHC) genes in vertebrates or genes involved in gene-for-gene (GFG) relationships in plants. Diversity is commonly observed at such loci and at corresponding loci encoding antigenic molecules in parasites. Multilocus theoretical models of host-parasite coevolution predict that polymorphism is more likely than in single-locus interactions because recurrent coevolutionary cycles are sustained by indirect frequency-dependent selection as rare genotypes have a selective advantage. These cycles are stabilized by direct frequency-dependent selection, resulting from repeated reinfection of the same host by a parasite, a feature of most diseases. Here, it is shown that for realistically small costs of resistance and virulence, polycyclic disease and high autoinfection rates, stable polymorphism of all possible genotypes is obtained in parasite populations. Two types of epistatic interactions between loci tend to increase the parameter space in which stable polymorphism can occur with all possible host and parasite genotypes. In the parasite, the marginal cost of each additional virulence allele should increase, while in the host, the marginal cost of each additional resistance allele should decrease. It is therefore predicted that GFG polymorphism will be stable (and hence detectable) when there is partial complementation of avirulence genes in the parasite and of resistance genes in the host.     

The deviation from linkage equilibrium with multiple loci varying in a stepping-stone cline

The balance between the creation of associations between alleles at different loci by immigration and the convergence to linkage equilibrium due to the recombination process is studied in a theoretical model. The geographical structure of the model is a stepping-stone chain of populations linking two genetically constant source populations. The model assumes an arbitrary number of autosomal loci and considers genetic variation (two alleles at each locus) that is not subject to natural selection. The gene frequencies at each locus will then show a linear cline through the stepping-stone chain of populations. The deviation from linkage equilibrium through the stepping-stone cline is characterized by an equation for linear measures that provide the linkage disequilibrium measures for a given set of loci in terms of the gene frequencies and the linkage disequilibria in the source populations and in terms of the linkage disequilibrium measures through the cline for lower numbers of loci. Numerical examples of this iterative solution are given, and it is shown that the build-up of the higher order Bennett-disequilibria through the cline is considerably more pronounced than the build-up of two-locus disequilibria.     

The Roles of Competition and Mutation in Shaping Antigenic and Genetic Diversity in Influenza

Influenza A (H3N2) offers a well-studied, yet not fully understood, disease in terms of the interactions between pathogen population dynamics, epidemiology and genetics. A major open question is why the virus population is globally dominated by a single and very recently diverged (2–8 years) lineage. Classically, this has been modeled by limiting the generation of new successful antigenic variants, such that only a small subset of progeny acquire the necessary mutations to evade host immunity. An alternative approach was recently suggested by Recker et al. in which a limited number of antigenic variants are continuously generated, but most of these are suppressed by pre-existing host population immunity. Here we develop a framework spanning the regimes described above to explore the impact of rates of mutation and levels of competition on phylodynamic patterns. We find that the evolutionary dynamics of the subtype H3N2 influenza is most easily generated within this framework when it is mutation limited as well as being under strong immune selection at a number of epitope regions of limited diversity.