Periodicity and time trends in the prevalence of total births and conceptions with congenital malformations among Jews and Muslims in Israel, 1999‐2006: A time series study of 823,966 births

BACKGROUND Congenital malformations (CMs) are a leading cause of infant disability. Geophysical patterns such as 2‐year, yearly, half‐year, 3‐month, and lunar cycles regulate much of the temporal biology of all life on Earth and may affect birth and birth outcomes in humans. Therefore, the aim of this study was to evaluate and compare trends and periodicity in total births and CM conceptions in two Israeli populations. METHODS Poisson nonlinear models (polynomial) were applied to study and compare trends and geophysical periodicity cycles of weekly births and weekly prevalence rate of CM (CMPR), in a time‐series design of conception date within and between Jews and Muslims. The population included all live births and stillbirths (n = 823,966) and CM (three anatomic systems, eight CM groups [n = 2193]) in Israel during 2000 to 2006. Data were obtained from the Ministry of Health. RESULTS We describe the trend and periodicity cycles for total birth conceptions. Of eight groups of CM, periodicity cycles were statistically significant in four CM groups for either Jews or Muslims. Lunar month and biennial periodicity cycles not previously investigated in the literature were found to be statistically significant. Biennial cycle was significant in total births (Jews and Muslims) and syndactyly (Muslims), whereas lunar month cycle was significant in total births (Muslims) and atresia of small intestine (Jews). CONCLUSION We encourage others to use the method we describe as an important tool to investigate the effects of different geophysical cycles on human health and pregnancy outcomes, especially CM, and to compare between populations. Birth Defects Research (Part A) 2012. © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Seasonality of births: stability and change in a developing country

A marked seasonality of births for the two main ethnic groups of peninsular Malaysia, far exceeding the cyclic fluctuations in births in the United States and Canada, was reported for the 1960s. A 36% excess of births over the average monthly number was observed among Malays each January. Among the ethnic Chinese in Malaysia a regular periodicity in the numbers of births was also found, but it was far less marked and the peak occurred in October or November. The peaks in both groups were due in large measure to conceptions that correlate with religious observances or holidays. Here I report on cyclic birth patterns in peninsular Malaysia for the period 1970-1985. Rapid economic development has occurred during this time and has brought with it demographic changes, such as a massive rise in contraceptive use and a decline in birth rates. These demographic changes have been accompanied by the loss of the pronounced seasonal pattern of births among the Malays. The seasonality of Malay births is now of roughly the same magnitude as the seasonality in the United States and Canada, whereas seasonality of births among the Chinese in Malaysia remains essentially unchanged.     

Novel perspectives on the influence of the lunar cycle on the timing of full-term human births

ABSTRACT

It is claimed by some that the number of births occurring at the time of the full moon is greater than other phases of the lunar cycle; however, many publications fail to substantiate the claim leading to the conclusion it is myth. We tested using a novel approach the null hypotheses: (i) human birth is not lunar cycle-dependent and (ii) the number of births occurring at or around the time of the full moon is not different from the number occurring at the time of the other phases of the lunar cycle. We reviewed the birth records from 1 January 1996 to 16 March 2007 of the obstetric department of our hospital, which was then located in a relatively undeveloped area of Fukutsu city in Fukuoka Prefecture of southern Japan. A total of 1507 births satisfied all inclusion criteria, among others, being full-term and following spontaneously initiated labor. When the birth data were analyzed as done by other investigators, i.e. total number of births per lunar day, lunar phase was not found to be influential. However, more detailed analyses on the subset of babies born specifically during the nighttime hours (N = 362) revealed the number of births varied in relation specifically to the changing amount of moonlight during the nighttime at different stages of the lunar cycle, with highest number of births at or around the time of the full moon. In contrast, analyses on the subset of babies born specifically during the daytime hours (N = 377) revealed the number of births varied in relation specifically to the changing amount moonlight during the daytime at different stages of the lunar cycle, with the highest number of births at or around the time of the new moon. The initiation and culmination of human birth are typically a nocturnal process. The findings of this investigation are consistent with the hypothesis natural nighttime parturition is influenced by lunar phase, particularly the full moon, and, thus, they are consistent with the belief the moon exerts an affect upon the timing of human birth. We speculate the long-hold belief of the association between birth and lunar phase may be based on historical observations that in the absence of artificial light at night nocturnal births occurred in elevated number when the full moon brightly illuminated the nighttime sky.     

Seasonality of births and family characteristics in a Spanish population

The seasonality of births in the period 1871-1977 is studied in a rural north-western Spanish population. Based on a total sample of 11,695 birth registrations, temporal variation is analysed. For siblings, according to family reconstitution, the total family size, the legitimacy of the child, and birth order are considered. A coefficient of birth month dispersion is defined and estimated for each family. Intra-family variation is related to inter-family coefficients in order to determine whether the local seasonal pattern of births may be partly explained by family characteristics.     

The 11-year cycle in human births

The annual numbers of human births were analyzed with regard to an 11-year cycle. The annual values were obtained from seven different regions: Australia, Germany, England and Wales, New Zealand, Japan, Switzerland, and the USA. Fifty-five annual values were obtained from each region for the years 1930 to 1984, comprising approximately five sunspot cycles. For each region the annual values were formed into 5 by 11 matrices; the eleven column means obtained were standardized, and plotted. A periodic regression technique, utilizing the fitting functions of the Fourier series, was used to evaluate the temporal order in the column means. Eleven-year rhythms were found and compared with solar and geophysical variables. Correlations were found with sunspots and solar flares, with terrestrial measures of magnetic disturbances (the magnetic indices derived from the K-index), and with temperature. The correlation of conceptions with the 11-year solar cycle may be a potential guide in the selection of further variables for the control and regulation of the rhythms in human conceptions.     

Seasonal patterns of birth in patients with glioblastoma

Seasonal distribution of birth rates was only recently described in patients with high-grade gliomas. We analyzed 501 cases from the database of a Regional Cancer Center in Bavaria to assess annual periodicity in the birth dates of glioma patients. Prior to analysis, the number of births per month was normalized [number of births×100,000/total number of births in Germany] to obtain birth rates per month. The approximation of the time series data by a one-year cosine model found that the glioblastoma birth rate exhibits a statistically significant annual variation, with the peak rate in January. Vitamin intake, infections, and other as-yet-unknown factors and exposures during pre- and perinatal early life may contribute to the seasonality of birth rate in patients with brain tumors.     

Seasonality of births and conceptions in a pastoral community of the province of l'Aquila (Abruzzo,Italy), 1802-1965

Natality rates and seasonality of births and conceptions were analyzed from 6,116 birth records in the pastoral community of Roio (Abruzzo, Italy) from 1802 to 1965. Gross natality rates averaged 25.5 x 1000 in the past, lower than those reported for agricultural groups. Seasonality of births showed a marked pattern: 807-67% of births occurred in the first six months of the year. The monthly distribution of conceptions was compared to that of marriages. The results show a high correlation in the 19th century and a lower one in the 20th century. These findings suggest that pastoralism acted as a primary regulator of reproduction in this community.     

Seasonal Patterns of Birth in Patients with Glioblastoma

Seasonal distribution of birth rates was only recently described in patients with high‐grade gliomas. We analyzed 501 cases from the database of a Regional Cancer Center in Bavaria to assess annual periodicity in the birth dates of glioma patients. Prior to analysis, the number of births per month was normalized [number of births×100,000/total number of births in Germany] to obtain birth rates per month. The approximation of the time series data by a one‐year cosine model found that the glioblastoma birth rate exhibits a statistically significant annual variation, with the peak rate in January. Vitamin intake, infections, and other as‐yet‐unknown factors and exposures during pre‐ and perinatal early life may contribute to the seasonality of birth rate in patients with brain tumors.     

Influence of month and climatic factors on the period of birth,litter size,birth weight and preweaning mortality of sheep in Ghana

Relationships between month and clinatic factors-rainfall, ambient temperature, relative humidity (RH) and temperature-humidity index (THI)-with time of parturition, litter size, birth weight and preweaning mortality were studied in Djallonke and Dja lonke x Sahelian sheep. Births (4142) occurred all year round although there were significant differences in the number of births per month. Maximum litter size did not coincide with the maximum births. Peak conceptions occurred in the early parts of the major rainy season. There were also significant differences in birth weights and mortalities (%) per month. Maximum and minimum values (of birth weighs and mortalities) occurred in the latter part of the rainy seasons and dry periods respectively. There were significant positive correlations between litter size and cumulative rainfall in the 4th–6th months periods prior to lambing. Birth weights of both males and females were positively and significantly associated with minimum temperature and cumulative rain-fall in the 2- and 3-months period prior to lambing respectively. There were significant positive correlations between mortality and minimum and maximum RH and cumulative rainfall in the 3 months after lambing.     

Epidemiology of Down syndrome (Trisomy 21), Hawaii, 1986-97

BACKGROUND: The live birth prevalence of Down syndrome is approximately 10 per 10,000 live births in the United States. Down syndrome prevalence has been reported to change over time and to vary by selected demographic factors. METHODS: Data from a population-based birth defects registry in Hawaii involving 363 Down syndrome cases delivered during 1986-97 were used to calculate overall prevalence and to investigate secular trends and differences by selected demographic factors. RESULTS: The total (live birth, fetal death, and elective termination) prevalence was 14.74 per 10,000 live births and fetal deaths. The unadjusted live birth prevalence was 8.67 per 10,000 live births. The adjusted live birth (live births and proportion of elective terminations expected to have resulted in live births) prevalence was 12.59 per 10,000 live births. No significant secular trends were observed for either total prevalence (P = 0.688) or adjusted live birth prevalence (P = 0.604). The total Down syndrome prevalence per 10,000 live births was highest for Far East Asians (22.01), followed by whites (17.06), Filipinos (15.94), and Pacific Islanders (9.21). Prevalence per 10,000 births was higher in metropolitan Honolulu (18.57) than in the rest of Hawaii (14.15). After adjusting for maternal age, however, the differences within the demographic groups were not statistically significant. CONCLUSIONS: The live birth prevalence of Down syndrome in Hawaii during 1986-97 was lower than reported in the literature. Prevalence did not change significantly over time. Any differences in prevalence by maternal race/ethnicity and place of residence appeared to result from differences in maternal age distribution.     

Seasonal variation of livebirths, stillbirths, extramarital births and twin maternities in Switzerland.

A study was made of the seasonal variation in all births, and births according to marital status, multiplicity and birth status (live and still) in Switzerland recorded between 1876 and 1990. To obtain seasonal variation in as pure as possible form, our analyses are based on rates. When comparing the seasonality in data sets showing markedly different levels, standardised indices were used. Assuming the length of pregnancies with twins to be about one month shorter than for pregnancies with singletons, lagged twinning rates were calculated but, in comparison with actual twinning rates, the general seasonal variation remained. Therefore, this study was based on actual twinning rates. A monotonic increase in the amplitude of the seasonal variation in general births was noted for the period 1876-1930, with strong seasonal variation holding for 1921-1980. After that, a marked decline in the amplitude can be observed. Seasonality of both all births and twin maternities showed very similar pattern for the periods 1876-1930 and 1969-1990, with maxima in the spring (March-May) and troughs in late autumn (October-December). Twin maternities showed a strong seasonality for the period 1876-1930, being about 20% higher in March than in October. The twinning rate in the period 1876-1930 was about 2.6 per thousand units higher than in the period 1969-90. For twin maternities there was also a stronger seasonal variation during the earlier period than during the later one. The pattern of the seasonal variation for extramarital births, showing a maximum in February (conceptions in May-June) and a minimum in August (conceptions in November-December) with a difference of no less than 24% was more marked than for the marital births. It seems likely that this seasonality of extra-marital maternities was due mainly to seasonal variation of coital rates and multiple ovulation in the early summer months coinciding with optima of light, temperature and food supply. A strong reduction in the rate of stillbirths (gestational age more than 29 weeks) was observed during the twentieth century. The stillbirth rate declined from about 40 per 1000 in the 1870s to fewer than 5 per 1000 in the 1980s. Irrespective of this strong decline in the stillbirth rate, the same seasonal rhythm was noticed throughout the period with high stillbirth rates among births around March and low rates during the summer and autumn.     

Seasonality of births for West Malaysia's two main racial groups.

Patterns of Malay and Chinese births occurring from January 1964 through December 1969 as registered by Malaysia's Department of Statistics were analyzed by comparing them with charts of major religious and secular holidays and with the marriage distributions (by month) of the 2 ethnic groups. For Malays there was a reduction in conc eptions associated with the Moslem month of Ramadan, a period of fasting. For the Chinese, number of conceptions peaked around the Chinese New Year, the main Chinese festival. For both groups the months of high marriage rates corresponded to months of high conception rates. Seasonal fluctuations in birthrates were higher for Malays than for the Chinese, which appeared to be due to the more pervasive effect of Islamic beliefs and practices on the Malay way of life. As the Malays constitute a more rural population, climate-related factors were considered as a possible explanation of their more extreme seasonal fluctuations, but the influence of climate could not be demonstrated for either the Malays or the Chinese.     

Seasonality of triplet births in the United States

Birth data on 1050 sets of triplets delivered in the United States from 1985 to 1988 were analyzed to establish whether seasonal variations in the number of triplet births occur. These data were compared to live birth data from the entire United States population over a similar period; the US data exhibit a seasonal variation with a peak in late summer. Seasonality in the number of triplet births was noted, and it differed significantly (p = 0.01) from that of the entire US population. A large peak in triplet births was seen in the spring (April-May) and a smaller peak in late summer (August-September). Only minor differences in these trends could be observed when triplet data were stratified by cause of pregnancy (spontaneous versus drug-induced ovulation) or corrected for the shorter gestations of triplet pregnancies.     

Box-Jenkins modeling of chronological series of twin births and single births

A time-series analysis by Box-Jenkins modeling of the monthly observations of twin births and singleton births was attempted. The study is population based. The single-birth series has been matched to the twin-birth series for maternal birth cohort, parity of the twin birth, and residence of the parents. Three-hundred forty-one twin pairs and 340 singleton births were grouped into chronological series spanning 72 months of observation. Univariate and bivariate time-series analyses were used. Box-Jenkins modeling shows that both series share the same basic demographic and reproductive risk factors, such as ovulation and conception rates, abortions, sexual intercourse, and the less well-known random events that determine the time of delivery. These factors are randomly related to both birth processes but exert a more important influence on twin births. Beyond these crude features, twin- and single-birth series differ by the frequency of their seasonal cycle. Twin births show low-frequency variations because of a rather limited number of factors that impinge markedly on the twinning process. Single births are subjected to higher frequency variations that can be ascribed to a greater number of structuring factors, the action of which is less pervasive. Only the January peak is common to both types of births. Aside from the common features, the bivariate analysis shows that both series of births are independent, neither being related to the other. It is concluded that the subtle structuring of both processes is largely distinct. The large fraction of the unaccounted variation of each birth process (about 70%) suggests that most of the variation is due to as yet unidentified factors. The search for environmental and geocosmic factors at the origin of conception and confinement should be considered in future undertakings.     

Twin and singleton births in Ghana--a case-control study.

A retrospective study involving 623 twin and 1246 singleton births was conducted to compare the two groups with regard to selected maternal, fetal and labor and delivery characteristics and outcomes. Maternal age and parity were significantly higher for twins. The risks of preterm delivery, arrival in the labor ward in second stage of labor, cesarean births and postpartum haemorrhage were significantly higher in twin than in singleton births. In vaginal deliveries twin mothers were significantly less likely to have had episiotomies or perineal lacerations. There was no difference in the duration of the third stage of labor or in the incidence of retained placentae. Antepartum haemorrhage was a less likely indication for cesarean delivery among twins, while there was no significant difference in the likelihood of severe pre-eclampsia/eclampsia being an indication. Singleton babies were significantly heavier than twins. The incidences of malpresentation, low birth weight, stillbirths and of admission of live births to the neonatal intensive care unit were significantly higher in twins. There was no difference in the rate of instrumental vaginal delivery, or in the route of delivery of fetuses presenting by the breech. There is the need for detailed study of the incidences of antepartum haemorrhage and hypertensive diseases in twin and singleton pregnancies and of the factors determining the mode of delivery when such complications arise. Labor and delivery should also be examined to determine any differences between the two groups, especially in the first and second stages.     

Natality and the changing pattern of seasonality of births in the province of Teramo (Abruzzo,Italy: 1500-1871)

Reconstruction of human ecosystems and their stability over time provides knowledge of the processes of adaptability developed by isolated communities. Seasonality of vital events is a good indicator of the effects of different 'traditional' lifestyles, which in turn depend on the ecological context in which a population developed specific subsistence models. Seasonality of births reflects the cultural attitude towards the best time to conceive, in relation to work activities and loads; the latter may also affect physiological functions related to fertility. The present research concerns gross birth rates and seasonality of births and conceptions during four centuries in south-central Italy. Birth rates were between 33.0 and 36.5 per 1000. The pattern of seasonality of births and, by extension, of conceptions defines a southern-type agricultural area for the earlier periods. However, it also shows a progressive shift towards an increasing concentration of conceptions in spring-summer--namely from April to August--with a large increase in summer in the 19th century with respect to the previous periods. The new 19th century pattern is reported by Crisafulli, Dalla Zuanna & Solero (2000) as being representative of the central Adriatic region, a geographical classification to which Abruzzo can also be attributed.     

Demographic consequences of increased winter births in a large aseasonally breeding mammal (Bos taurus) in response to climate change

1.?Studies examining changes in the scheduling of breeding in response to climate change have focused on species with well-defined breeding seasons. Species exhibiting year-round breeding have received little attention and the magnitudes of any responses are unknown. 2.?We investigated phenological data for an enclosed feral population of cattle (Bos taurus L.) in northern England exhibiting year-round breeding. This population is relatively free of human interference. 3.?We assessed whether the timing of births had changed over the last 60 years, in response to increasing winter and spring temperatures, changes in herd density, and a regime of lime fertilisation. 4.?Median birth date became earlier by 1·0 days per year. Analyses of the seasonal distribution of calving dates showed that significantly fewer calves were born in summer (decline from 44% of total births to 20%) and significantly more in winter (increase from 12% to 30%) over the study period. The most pronounced changes occurred in winter, with significant increases in both the proportion and number of births. Winter births arise from conceptions in the previous spring, and we considered models that investigated climate and weather variables associated with the winter preceding and the spring of conceptions. 5.?The proportion of winter births was higher when the onset of the plant growing season was earlier during the spring of conceptions. This relationship was much weaker during years when the site had been fertilised with lime, suggesting that increased forage biomass was over-riding the impacts of changing plant phenology. When the onset of the growing season was late, winter births increased with female density. 6.?Recruitment estimates from a stage-structured state-space population model were significantly negatively correlated with the proportion of births in the preceding winter, suggesting that calves born in winter are less likely to survive than those born in other seasons. 7.?This is one of the first studies to document changes in the phenology of a year-round breeder, suggesting that the impact of climate on the scheduling of biological events may be more extensive than previously thought and that impacts may be negative, even for species with relatively flexible breeding strategies.     

Birth seasonality and calf mortality in a large population of Asian elephants

In seasonal environments, many species concentrate their reproduction in the time of year most likely to maximize offspring survival. Asian elephants (Elephas maximus) inhabit regions with seasonal climate, but females can still experience 16‐week reproductive cycles throughout the year. Whether female elephants nevertheless concentrate births on periods with maximum offspring survival prospects remains unknown. We investigated the seasonal timing of births, and effects of birth month on short‐ and long‐term mortality of Asian elephants, using a unique demographic data set of 2350 semicaptive, longitudinally monitored logging elephants from Myanmar experiencing seasonal variation in both workload and environmental conditions. Our results show variation in birth rate across the year, with 41% of births occurring between December and March. This corresponds to the cool, dry period and the beginning of the hot season, and to conceptions occurring during the resting, nonlogging period between February and June. Giving birth during the peak December to March period improves offspring survival, as the odds for survival between age 1 and 5 years are 44% higher for individuals born during the high birth rate period than those conceived during working months. Our results suggest that seasonal conditions, most likely maternal workload and/or climate, limit conception rate and calf survival in this population through effects on maternal stress, estrus cycles, or access to mates. This has implications for improving the birth rate and infant survival in captive populations by limiting workload of females of reproductive age. As working populations are currently unsustainable and supplemented through the capture of wild elephants, it is imperative to the conservation of Asian elephants to understand and alleviate the effects of seasonal conditions on vital rates in the working population in order to reduce the pressure for further capture from the wild.     

Seasonality of births is associated with seasonality of marriages in Malta

This study was carried out to quantify secular trends in seasonal variation in births in Malta, a small Mediterranean country where the vast proportion of births occur in wedlock due to a predominantly Roman Catholic population. It also related such variations to seasonal variation in marriages. Annual seasonal peaks of marriages and births were analysed over the period 1950-1996 by X11 ARIMA. A significant peak in marriages (n = 111,932) in the third quarter of the year was found for almost the entire period under study. This was paralleled by a peak in births (n = 299,558) for the period 1970-1996, which lagged after the peak in marriages by 13-14 months. For the period 1994-1996, when monthly data for monthly pregnancies were available by pregnancy order, the peak in births was caused by first pregnancies only. Seasonal patterns in births occur almost universally due to cultural and/or biometeorological factors. The best known patterns include those of the southern United States, where births decline in April and May, and in northern Europe, where births peak in March and April. In Malta, the late summer peak in births appears to be due to a practical and planned approach by Maltese couples to contraceptive planning, probably influenced by the Roman Catholic ethos and social pressures, with unprotected intercourse occurring only after marriage. In Malta, birth control, albeit by so-called natural methods, was introduced in the 1960s. Prior to this period, births peaked towards the beginning/end of the year, and this may be the more natural seasonality of births in Malta.     

Annual Variation in Ecology and Reproduction of Wild Simakobu (Simias concolor)

Seasonal breeding in primates is related to the degree of environmental seasonality, particularly the availability and predictability of food. Southeast Asian species in general show moderate birth seasonality due to either low environmental seasonality or unpredictable fluctuations of mast-fruiting food resources. One Southeast Asian primate, the simakobu (Simias concolor), however, has been reported to be a strict seasonal breeder with births occurring in June and July only. It is unclear whether these observations are characteristic of the species or result from a sampling bias. To address this question, we documented the annual distribution of 11 births in eight groups of simakobu over two consecutive years at Pungut, an undisturbed site on Siberut Island, Indonesia. We assessed annual variation in ecology and reproduction via rainfall, temperature, food availability, feeding time, physical condition, conceptions, and births. Mean monthly temperature was nearly constant (26.3–27.1?°C), and monthly precipitation always high (219–432?mm). Although simakobu foods were abundant year-round, there were two fruit-feeding peaks in June and September. In contrast to previous reports, we documented births in 7?mo. Most births occurred in October (45?%), the wettest month of the year, and most conceptions in March and April, following a peak in unripe fruit availability. Although sample sizes are very small, females seemed to conceive when their physical condition was best, suggesting that simakobu time conceptions flexibly to the recovery of energy reserves. Across study sites, births occurred in 10 calendar months, indicating that simakobu reproduction is not strictly seasonal.