Respirometric assay for biofilm kinetics estimation: parameter identifiability and retrievability

Currently, no fast and accurate methods exist for measuring extant biokinetic parameters for biofilm systems. This article presents a new approach to measure extant biokinetic parameters of biofilms and examines the numerical feasibility of such a method. A completely mixed attached growth bioreactor is subjected to a pulse of substrate, and oxygen consumption is monitored by on-line measurement of dissolved oxygen concentration in the bulk liquid. The oxygen concentration profile is then fit with a mechanistic mathematical model for the biofilm to estimate biokinetic parameters. In this study a transient biofilm model is developed and solved to generate dissolved oxygen profiles in the bulk liquid. Sensitivity analysis of the model reveals that the dissolved oxygen profiles are sufficiently sensitive to the biokinetic parameters-the maximum specific growth rate coefficient (insertion markμ) and the half-saturation coefficient (Ks)-to support parameter estimation if accurate estimates of other model parameters can be obtained. Monte Carlo simulations are conducted with the model to add typical measurement error to the generated dissolved oxygen profiles. Even with measurement error in the dissolved oxygen profile, a pair of biokinetic parameters is always retrievable. The geometric mean of the parameter estimates from the Monte Carlo simulations prove to be an accurate estimator for the true biokinetic values. Higher precision is obtained for insertion markμ estimates than for Ks estimates. In summary, this theoretical analysis reveals that an on-line respirometric assay holds promise for measuring extant biofilm kinetic parameters. Copyright 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

Validation of a model-based virtual trials method for tight glycemic control in intensive care

Background  

In-silico virtual patients and trials offer significant advantages in cost, time and safety for designing effective tight glycemic control (TGC) protocols. However, no such method has fully validated the independence of virtual patients (or resulting clinical trial predictions) from the data used to create them. This study uses matched cohorts from a TGC clinical trial to validate virtual patients and in-silico virtual trial models and methods.     

Joint oligogenic segregation and linkage analysis using bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo methods

One of the most challenging areas in human genetics is the dissection of quantitative traits. In this context, the efficient use of available data is important, including, when possible, use of large pedigrees and many markers for gene mapping. In addition, methods that jointly perform linkage analysis and estimation of the trait model are appealing because they combine the advantages of a model-based analysis with the advantages of methods that do not require prespecification of model parameters for linkage analysis. Here we review a Markov chain Monte Carlo approach for such joint linkage and segregation analysis, which allows analysis of oligogenic traits in the context of multipoint linkage analysis of large pedigrees. We provide an outline for practitioners of the salient features of the method, interpretation of the results, effect of violation of assumptions, and an example analysis of a two-locus trait to illustrate the method.     

A Monte Carlo method for the simulation of kinetie models

The purpose of this note is to illustrate the feasibility of simulating kinetic systems, such as commonly encountered in photosynthesis research, using the Monte Carlo (MC) method. In this approach, chemical events are considered at the molecular level where they occur randomly and the macroscopic kinetic evolution results from averaging a large number of such events. Their repeated simulation is easily accomplished using digital computing. It is shown that the MC approach is well suited to the capabilities and resources of modern microcomputers. A software package is briefly described and discussed, allowing a simple programming of any kinetic model system and its resolution. The execution is reasonably fast and accurate; it is not subject to such instabilities as found with the conventional analytical approach.Abbreviations MC Monte Carlo - RN random number - PSU photosynthetic unit Dedicated to Prof. L.N.M. Duysens on the occasion of his retirement.     

Sampling for conditional inference on case-control data

The problem of exact conditional inference for discrete multivariate case-control data has two forms. The first is grouped case-control data, where Monte Carlo computations can be done using the importance sampling method of Booth and Butler (1999, Biometrika86, 321-332), or a proposed alternative sequential importance sampling method. The second form is matched case-control data. For this analysis we propose a new exact sampling method based on the conditional-Poisson distribution for conditional testing with one binary and one integral ordered covariate. This method makes computations on data sets with large numbers of matched sets fast and accurate. We provide detailed derivation of the constraints and conditional distributions for conditional inference on grouped and matched data. The methods are illustrated on several new and old data sets.     

Identifying differentially expressed genes in meta-analysis via Bayesian model-based clustering

A Bayesian model-based clustering approach is proposed for identifying differentially expressed genes in meta-analysis. A Bayesian hierarchical model is used as a scientific tool for combining information from different studies, and a mixture prior is used to separate differentially expressed genes from non-differentially expressed genes. Posterior estimation of the parameters and missing observations are done by using a simple Markov chain Monte Carlo method. From the estimated mixture model, useful measure of significance of a test such as the Bayesian false discovery rate (FDR), the local FDR (Efron et al., 2001), and the integration-driven discovery rate (IDR; Choi et al., 2003) can be easily computed. The model-based approach is also compared with commonly used permutation methods, and it is shown that the model-based approach is superior to the permutation methods when there are excessive under-expressed genes compared to over-expressed genes or vice versa. The proposed method is applied to four publicly available prostate cancer gene expression data sets and simulated data sets.     

Simulation methods for protein structure fluctuations

Three numerical techniques for generating thermally accessible configurations of globular proteins are considered; these techniques are the molecular dynamics method, the Metropolis Monte Carlo method, and a modified Monte Carlo method which takes account of the forces acting on the protein atoms. The molecular dynamics method is shown to be more efficient than either of the Monte Carlo methods. Because it may be necessary to use Monte Carlo methods in certain important types of sampling problems, the behavior of these methods is examined in some detail. It is found that an acceptance ratio close to 1/6 yields optimum efficiency for the Metropolis method, in contrast to what is often assumed. This result, together with the overall inefficiency of the Monte Carlo methods, appears to arise from the anisotropic forces acting on the protein atoms due to their covalent bonding. Possible ways of improving the Monte Carlo methods are suggested.     

Pseudo-likelihood analysis of codon substitution models with neighbor-dependent rates.

Recently, Markov processes for the evolution of coding DNA with neighbor dependence in the instantaneous substitution rates have been considered. The neighbor dependency makes the models analytically intractable, and previously Markov chain Monte Carlo methods have been used for statistical inference. Using a pseudo-likelihood idea, we introduce in this paper an approximative estimation method which is fast to compute. The pseudo-likelihood estimates are shown to be very accurate, and from analyzing 348 human-mouse coding sequences we conclude that the incorporation of a CpG effect improves the fit of the model considerably.     

Bayesian phylogeny analysis via stochastic approximation Monte Carlo

Monte Carlo methods have received much attention in the recent literature of phylogeny analysis. However, the conventional Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms, such as the Metropolis–Hastings algorithm, tend to get trapped in a local mode in simulating from the posterior distribution of phylogenetic trees, rendering the inference ineffective. In this paper, we apply an advanced Monte Carlo algorithm, the stochastic approximation Monte Carlo algorithm, to Bayesian phylogeny analysis. Our method is compared with two popular Bayesian phylogeny software, BAMBE and MrBayes, on simulated and real datasets. The numerical results indicate that our method outperforms BAMBE and MrBayes. Among the three methods, SAMC produces the consensus trees which have the highest similarity to the true trees, and the model parameter estimates which have the smallest mean square errors, but costs the least CPU time.     

Radial secondary electron dose profiles and biological effects in light-ion beams based on analytical and Monte Carlo calculations using distorted wave cross sections

To speed up dose calculation, an analytical pencil-beam method has been developed to calculate the mean radial dose distributions due to secondary electrons that are set in motion by light ions in water. For comparison, radial dose profiles calculated using a Monte Carlo technique have also been determined. An accurate comparison of the resulting radial dose profiles of the Bragg peak for (1)H(+), (4)He(2+) and (6)Li(3+) ions has been performed. The double differential cross sections for secondary electron production were calculated using the continuous distorted wave-eikonal initial state method (CDW-EIS). For the secondary electrons that are generated, the radial dose distribution for the analytical case is based on the generalized Gaussian pencil-beam method and the central axis depth-dose distributions are calculated using the Monte Carlo code PENELOPE. In the Monte Carlo case, the PENELOPE code was used to calculate the whole radial dose profile based on CDW data. The present pencil-beam and Monte Carlo calculations agree well at all radii. A radial dose profile that is shallower at small radii and steeper at large radii than the conventional 1/r(2) is clearly seen with both the Monte Carlo and pencil-beam methods. As expected, since the projectile velocities are the same, the dose profiles of Bragg-peak ions of 0.5 MeV (1)H(+), 2 MeV (4)He(2+) and 3 MeV (6)Li(3+) are almost the same, with about 30% more delta electrons in the sub keV range from (4)He(2+)and (6)Li(3+) compared to (1)H(+). A similar behavior is also seen for 1 MeV (1)H(+), 4 MeV (4)He(2+) and 6 MeV (6)Li(3+), all classically expected to have the same secondary electron cross sections. The results are promising and indicate a fast and accurate way of calculating the mean radial dose profile.     

Two-step validation of a Monte Carlo dosimetry framework for general radiology

The Monte Carlo technique is considered gold standard when it comes to patient-specific dosimetry. Any newly developed Monte Carlo simulation framework, however, has to be carefully calibrated and validated prior to its use. For many researchers this is a tedious work. We propose a two-step validation procedure for our newly built Monte Carlo framework and provide all input data to make it feasible for future related application by the wider community. The validation was at first performed by benchmarking against simulation data available in literature. The American Association of Physicists in Medicine (AAPM) report of task group 195 (case 2) was considered most appropriate for our application. Secondly, the framework was calibrated and validated against experimental measurements for trunk X-ray imaging protocols using a water phantom. The dose results obtained from all simulations and measurements were compared. Our Monte Carlo framework proved to agree with literature data, by showing a maximal difference below 4% to the AAPM report. The mean difference with the water phantom measurements was around 7%. The statistical uncertainty for clinical applications of the dosimetry model is expected to be within 10%. This makes it reliable for clinical dose calculations in general radiology. Input data and the described procedure allow for the validation of other Monte Carlo frameworks.     

Density guided importance sampling: application to a reduced model of protein folding

MOTIVATION: Monte Carlo methods are the most effective means of exploring the energy landscapes of protein folding. The rugged topography of folding energy landscapes causes sampling inefficiencies however, particularly at low, physiological temperatures. RESULTS: A hybrid Monte Carlo method, termed density guided importance sampling (DGIS), is presented that overcomes these sampling inefficiencies. The method is shown to be highly accurate and efficient in determining Boltzmann weighted structural metrics of a discrete off-lattice protein model. In comparison to the Metropolis Monte Carlo method, and the hybrid Monte Carlo methods, jump-walking, smart-walking and replica-exchange, the DGIS method is shown to be more efficient, requiring no parameter optimization. The method guides the simulation towards under-sampled regions of the energy spectrum and recognizes when equilibrium has been reached, avoiding arbitrary and excessively long simulation times. AVAILABILITY: Fortran code available from authors upon request. CONTACT: m.j.parker@leeds.ac.uk.     

Test of the Inverse Monte Carlo Method for the Calculation of Interatomic Potential Energies in Atomic Liquids

Abstract

The principle purpose of this paper is to demonstrate the use of the Inverse Monte Carlo technique for calculating pair interaction energies in monoatomic liquids from a given equilibrium property. This method is based on the mathematical relation between transition probability and pair potential given by the fundamental equation of the “importance sampling” Monte Carlo method. In order to have well defined conditions for the test of the Inverse Monte Carlo method a Metropolis Monte Carlo simulation of a Lennard Jones liquid is carried out to give the equilibrium pair correlation function determined by the assumed potential. Because an equilibrium configuration is prerequisite for an Inverse Monte Carlo simulation a model system is generated reproducing the pair correlation function, which has been calculated by the Metropolis Monte Carlo simulation and therefore representing the system in thermal equilibrium. This configuration is used to simulate virtual atom displacements. The resulting changes in atom distribution for each single simulation step are inserted in a set of non-linear equations defining the transition probability for the virtual change of configuration. The solution of the set of equations for pair interaction energies yields the Lennard Jones potential by which the equilibrium configuration has been determined.     

Assessment of out-of-field doses in radiotherapy treatments of paediatric patients using Monte Carlo methods and measurements

PurposeTo assess out-of-field doses in radiotherapy treatments of paediatric patients, using Monte Carlo methods to implement a new model of the linear accelerator validated against measurements and developing a voxelized anthropomorphic paediatric phantom.MethodsCT images of a physical anthropomorphic paediatric phantom were acquired and a dosimetric planning using a TPS was obtained. The CT images were used to perform the voxelization of the physical phantom using the ImageJ software and later implemented in MCNP. In order to validate the Monte Carlo model, dose measurements of the 6 MV beam and Linac with 120 MLC were made in a clinical setting, using ionization chambers and a water phantom. Afterwards TLD measurements in the physical anthropomorphic phantom were performed in order to assess the out-of-field doses in the eyes, thyroid, c-spine, heart and lungs.ResultsThe Monte Carlo model was validated for in-field and out-of-field doses with average relative differences below 3%. The average relative differences between TLD measurements and Monte Carlo is 14,3% whilst the average relative differences between TLD and TPS is 55,8%. Moreover, organs up to 22.5 cm from PTV center show TLD and MCNP6 relative differences and TLD and TPS relative differences up to 21.2% and 92.0%, respectively.ConclusionsOur study provides a novel model that could be used in clinical research, namely in dose evaluation outside the treatment fields. This is particularly relevant, especially in pediatric patients, for studying new radiotherapy treatment techniques, since it can be used to estimate the development of secondary tumours.     

Utilizing Gaussian Markov Random Field Properties of Bayesian Animal Models

Summary In this article, we demonstrate how Gaussian Markov random field properties give large computational benefits and new opportunities for the Bayesian animal model. We make inference by computing the posteriors for important quantitative genetic variables. For the single‐trait animal model, a nonsampling‐based approximation is presented. For the multitrait model, we set up a robust and fast Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm. The proposed methodology was used to analyze quantitative genetic properties of morphological traits of a wild house sparrow population. Results for single‐ and multitrait models were compared.     

Protein modeling and structure prediction with a reduced representation

Protein modeling could be done on various levels of structural details, from simplified lattice or continuous representations, through high resolution reduced models, employing the united atom representation, to all-atom models of the molecular mechanics. Here I describe a new high resolution reduced model, its force field and applications in the structural proteomics. The model uses a lattice representation with 800 possible orientations of the virtual alpha carbon-alpha carbon bonds. The sampling scheme of the conformational space employs the Replica Exchange Monte Carlo method. Knowledge-based potentials of the force field include: generic protein-like conformational biases, statistical potentials for the short-range conformational propensities, a model of the main chain hydrogen bonds and context-dependent statistical potentials describing the side group interactions. The model is more accurate than the previously designed lattice models and in many applications it is complementary and competitive in respect to the all-atom techniques. The test applications include: the ab initio structure prediction, multitemplate comparative modeling and structure prediction based on sparse experimental data. Especially, the new approach to comparative modeling could be a valuable tool of the structural proteomics. It is shown that the new approach goes beyond the range of applicability of the traditional methods of the protein comparative modeling.     

Parameter Estimation Methods for Chaotic Intercellular Networks

We have investigated simulation-based techniques for parameter estimation in chaotic intercellular networks. The proposed methodology combines a synchronization–based framework for parameter estimation in coupled chaotic systems with some state–of–the–art computational inference methods borrowed from the field of computational statistics. The first method is a stochastic optimization algorithm, known as accelerated random search method, and the other two techniques are based on approximate Bayesian computation. The latter is a general methodology for non–parametric inference that can be applied to practically any system of interest. The first method based on approximate Bayesian computation is a Markov Chain Monte Carlo scheme that generates a series of random parameter realizations for which a low synchronization error is guaranteed. We show that accurate parameter estimates can be obtained by averaging over these realizations. The second ABC–based technique is a Sequential Monte Carlo scheme. The algorithm generates a sequence of “populations”, i.e., sets of randomly generated parameter values, where the members of a certain population attain a synchronization error that is lesser than the error attained by members of the previous population. Again, we show that accurate estimates can be obtained by averaging over the parameter values in the last population of the sequence. We have analysed how effective these methods are from a computational perspective. For the numerical simulations we have considered a network that consists of two modified repressilators with identical parameters, coupled by the fast diffusion of the autoinducer across the cell membranes.     

Importance sampling. I. Computing multimodel p values in linkage analysis.

In linkage analysis, when the lod score is maximized over multiple genetic models, standard asymptotic approximation of the significance level does not apply. Monte Carlo methods can be used to estimate the p value, but procedures currently used are extremely inefficient. We propose a Monte Carlo procedure based on the concept of importance sampling, which can be thousands of times more efficient than current procedures. With a reasonable amount of computing time, extremely accurate estimates of the p values can be obtained. Both theoretical results and an example of maturity-onset diabetes of the young (MODY) are presented to illustrate the efficiency performance of our method. Relations between single-model and multimodel p values are explored. The new procedure is also used to investigate the performance of asymptotic approximations in a single model situation.