Homoclinic and heteroclinic orbits to a cycle in a tri-trophic food chain

 The asymptotic behavior of a tri-trophic food chain model is studied. The analysis is carried out numerically, by finding both local and global bifurcations of equilibria and limit cycles. The existence of transversal homoclinic orbits to a limit cycle is shown. The appearance of homoclinic orbits, by moving through a homoclinic bifurcation point, is associated with the sudden disappearance of a chaotic attractor. A homoclinic bifurcation curve, which bounds a region of extinction, is continued through a two-dimensional parameter space. Heteroclinic orbits from an equilibrium to a limit cycle are computed. The existence of these heteroclinic orbits has important consequences on the domains of attraction. Continuation of non-transversal heteroclinic orbits through parameter space shows the existence of two codimension-two bifurcations points, where the saddle cycle is non-hyperbolic. The results are summarized by dividing the parameter space in subregions with different asymptotic behavior. Received: 25 February 1998 / Revised version: 19 August 1998     

Multiple attractors and boundary crises in a tri-trophic food chain

The asymptotic behaviour of a model of a tri-trophic food chain in the chemostat is analysed in detail. The Monod growth model is used for all trophic levels, yielding a non-linear dynamical system of four ordinary differential equations. Mass conservation makes it possible to reduce the dimension by 1 for the study of the asymptotic dynamic behaviour. The intersections of the orbits with a Poincaré plane, after the transient has died out, yield a two-dimensional Poincaré next-return map. When chaotic behaviour occurs, all image points of this next-return map appear to lie close to a single curve in the intersection plane. This motivated the study of a one-dimensional bi-modal, non-invertible map of which the graph resembles this curve. We will show that the bifurcation structure of the food chain model can be understood in terms of the local and global bifurcations of this one-dimensional map. Homoclinic and heteroclinic connecting orbits and their global bifurcations are discussed also by relating them to their counterparts for a two-dimensional map which is invertible like the next-return map. In the global bifurcations two homoclinic or two heteroclinic orbits collide and disappear. In the food chain model two attractors coexist; a stable limit cycle where the top-predator is absent and an interior attractor. In addition there is a saddle cycle. The stable manifold of this limit cycle forms the basin boundary of the interior attractor. We will show that this boundary has a complicated structure when there are heteroclinic orbits from a saddle equilibrium to this saddle limit cycle. A homoclinic bifurcation to a saddle limit cycle will be associated with a boundary crisis where the chaotic attractor disappears suddenly when a bifurcation parameter is varied. Thus, similar to a tangent local bifurcation for equilibria or limit cycles, this homoclinic global bifurcation marks a region in the parameter space where the top-predator goes extinct. The 'Paradox of Enrichment' says that increasing the concentration of nutrient input can cause destabilization of the otherwise stable interior equilibrium of a bi-trophic food chain. For a tri-trophic food chain enrichment of the environment can even lead to extinction of the highest trophic level.     

Resilience and tipping points of an exploited fish population over six decades

Complex natural systems with eroded resilience, such as populations, ecosystems and socio‐ecological systems, respond to small perturbations with abrupt, discontinuous state shifts, or critical transitions. Theory of critical transitions suggests that such systems exhibit fold bifurcations featuring folded response curves, tipping points and alternate attractors. However, there is little empirical evidence of fold bifurcations occurring in actual complex natural systems impacted by multiple stressors. Moreover, resilience of complex systems to change currently lacks clear operational measures with generic application. Here, we provide empirical evidence for the occurrence of a fold bifurcation in an exploited fish population and introduce a generic measure of ecological resilience based on the observed fold bifurcation attributes. We analyse the multivariate development of Barents Sea cod (Gadus morhua), which is currently the world's largest cod stock, over six decades (1949–2009), and identify a population state shift in 1981. By plotting a multivariate population index against a multivariate stressor index, the shift mechanism was revealed suggesting that the observed population shift was a nonlinear response to the combined effects of overfishing and climate change. Annual resilience values were estimated based on the position of each year in relation to the fitted attractors and assumed tipping points of the fold bifurcation. By interpolating the annual resilience values, a folded stability landscape was fit, which was shaped as predicted by theory. The resilience assessment suggested that the population may be close to another tipping point. This study illustrates how a multivariate analysis, supported by theory of critical transitions and accompanied by a quantitative resilience assessment, can clarify shift mechanisms in data‐rich complex natural systems.     

Mathematical modeling of the population dynamics of a distinct interactions type system with local dispersal

Distinct biotic interactions in multi-species communities are a ubiquitous force in the natural ecosystem, and this force is an essential determinant of community stability and species coexistence outcomes. We conduct numerical simulations and bifurcation analysis of partial differential equations to gain better understanding and ecological insights into how predation (a), predator handling time (h), and local dispersal affect multi-species community dynamics. This system consists of resource-mutualist-exploiter-competitor interactions and local dispersal. From the inspection of our numerical simulations and co-dimension one bifurcation analysis findings, we discover several critical values that correspond to transcritical bifurcation, subcritical and supercritical Hopf bifurcations. This occurs as we vary the bifurcation parameters a and h in this complex ecological system under symmetric and asymmetric dispersal scenarios. Furthermore, the interplay between these local bifurcation points results in an exciting co-dimension two bifurcations, i.e., Bogdanov-Takens and cusp bifurcation points, respectively, which act as the synchronization points in this complex ecological system. From an ecological viewpoint, we find that (i) the effect of the no-dispersal scenario supports the maintenance of species biodiversity when the predation strength is moderate; (ii) symmetric dispersal induces both subcritical and supercritical Hopf bifurcation and support species diversity for moderate predation strength; and (iii) asymmetric dispersal promotes species diversity as it simplifies the bifurcation changes in dynamics by eliminating the subcritical bifurcations that trigger uncertainty, and this dispersal mechanism mediates species coexistence outcomes. Fundamentally, stable limit cycles have been reported as predator handling time varies in some ecological models; however, we observed in our bifurcation analysis the emergence of the unstable limit cycle as predator handling time changes. We discover that intense predator handling time destabilizes this complex ecological community. In general, our results demonstrate the influential roles of predation, predator handling time, and local dispersal in determining this system’s coexistence dynamics. This knowledge provides a better understanding of species conservation and biological control management.     

The rainbow bridge: Hamiltonian limits and resonance in predator-prey dynamics

 In the presence of seasonal forcing, the intricate topology of non-integrable Hamiltonian predator-prey models is shown to exercise profound effects on the dynamics and bifurcation structure of more realistic schemes which do not admit a Hamiltonian formulation. The demonstration of this fact is accomplished by writing the more general models as perturbations of a Hamiltonian limit, ℋ, in which are contained infinite numbers of periodic, quasiperiodic and chaotic motions. From ℋ, there emanates a surface, Γ, of Nejmark-Sacker bifurcations whereby the annual oscillations induced by seasonality are destabilized. Connecting Γ and ℋ is a bridge of resonance horns within which invariant motions of the Hamiltonian case persist. The boundaries of the resonance horns are curves of tangent (saddle-node) bifurcations corresponding to subharmonics of the yearly cycle. Associated with each horn is a rotation number which determines the dominant frequency, or “color”, of attractors within the horn. When viewed through the necessarily coarse filter of ecological data acquisition, and regardless of their detailed topology, these attractors are often indistinguishable from multi-annual cycles. Because the tips of the horns line up monotonically along Γ, it further follows that the distribution of observable periods in systems subject to fluctuating parameter values induced, for example, by year-to-year variations in the climate, will often exhibit a discernible central tendency. In short, the bifurcation structure is consistent with the observation of multi-annual cycles in Nature. Fundamentally, this is a consequence of the fact that the bridge between ℋ and Γ is a rainbow bridge. While the present analysis is principally concerned with the two species case (one predator and one prey), Hamiltonian limits are also observed in other ecological contexts: 2n-species (n predators, n prey) systems and periodically-forced three level food chain models. Hamiltonian limits may thus be common in models involving the destruction of one species by another. Given the oft-commented upon structural instability of Hamiltonian systems and the corresponding lack of regard in which they are held as useful caricatures of ecological interactions, the pivotal role assigned here to Hamiltonian limits constitutes a qualitative break with the conventional wisdom. Received: 2 November 1998     

Chaos in three species food chains

We study the dynamics of a three species food chain using bifurcation theory to demonstrate the existence of chaotic dynamics in the neighborhood of the equilibrium where the top species in the food chain is absent. The goal of our study is to demonstrate the presence of chaos in a class of ecological models, rather than just in a specific model. This work extends earlier numerical studies of a particular system by Hastings and Powell (1991) by showing that chaos occurs in a class of ecological models. The mathematical techniques we use are based on work by Guckenheimer and Holmes (1983) on co-dimension two bifurcations. However, restrictions on the equations we study imposed by ecological assumptions require a new and somewhat different analysis.     

Influence of nonlinear incidence rates upon the behavior of SIRS epidemiological models

When the traditional assumption that the incidence rate is proportional to the product of the numbers of infectives and susceptibles is dropped, the SIRS model can exhibit qualitatively different dynamical behaviors, including Hopf bifurcations, saddle-node bifurcations, and homoclinic loop bifurcations. These may be important epidemiologically in that they demonstrate the possibility of infection outbreak and collapse, or autonomous periodic coexistence of disease and host. The possible mechanisms leading to nonlinear incidence rates are discussed. Finally, a modified general criterion for supercritical or subcritical Hopf bifurcation of 2-dimensional systems is presented.     

Disease-induced mortality in density-dependent discrete-time S-I-S epidemic models

The dynamics of simple discrete-time epidemic models without disease-induced mortality are typically characterized by global transcritical bifurcation. We prove that in corresponding models with disease-induced mortality a tiny number of infectious individuals can drive an otherwise persistent population to extinction. Our model with disease-induced mortality supports multiple attractors. In addition, we use a Ricker recruitment function in an SIS model and obtained a three component discrete Hopf (Neimark-Sacker) cycle attractor coexisting with a fixed point attractor. The basin boundaries of the coexisting attractors are fractal in nature, and the example exhibits sensitive dependence of the long-term disease dynamics on initial conditions. Furthermore, we show that in contrast to corresponding models without disease-induced mortality, the disease-free state dynamics do not drive the disease dynamics.     

Coexistence of Tonic Spiking Oscillations in a Leech Neuron Model

The leech neuron model studied here has a remarkable dynamical plasticity. It exhibits a wide range of activities including various types of tonic spiking and bursting. In this study we apply methods of the qualitative theory of dynamical systems and the bifurcation theory to analyze the dynamics of the leech neuron model with emphasis on tonic spiking regimes. We show that the model can demonstrate bi-stability, such that two modes of tonic spiking coexist. Under a certain parameter regime, both tonic spiking modes are represented by the periodic attractors. As a bifurcation parameter is varied, one of the attractors becomes chaotic through a cascade of period-doubling bifurcations, while the other remains periodic. Thus, the system can demonstrate co-existence of a periodic tonic spiking with either periodic or chaotic tonic spiking. Pontryagins averaging technique is used to locate the periodic orbits in the phase space.     

Transient spatio-temporal dynamics of a diffusive plant–herbivore system with Neumann boundary conditions

In many existing predator–prey or plant–herbivore models, the numerical response is assumed to be proportional to the functional response. In this paper, without such an assumption, we consider a diffusive plant–herbivore system with Neumann boundary conditions. Besides stability of spatially homogeneous steady states, we also derive conditions for the occurrence of Hopf bifurcation and steady-state bifurcation and provide geometrical methods to locate the bifurcation values. We numerically explore the complex transient spatio-temporal behaviours induced by these bifurcations. A large variety of different types of transient behaviours including oscillations in one or both of space and time are observed.     

Consequences of symbiosis for food web dynamics

Basic Lotka-Volterra type models in which mutualism (a type of symbiosis where the two populations benefit both) is taken into account, may give unbounded solutions. We exclude such behaviour using explicit mass balances and study the consequences of symbiosis for the long-term dynamic behaviour of a three species system, two prey and one predator species in the chemostat. We compose a theoretical food web where a predator feeds on two prey species that have a symbiotic relationships. In addition to a species-specific resource, the two prey populations consume the products of the partner population as well. In turn, a common predator forages on these prey populations. The temporal change in the biomass and the nutrient densities in the reactor is described by ordinary differential equations (ODE). Since products are recycled, the dynamics of these abiotic materials must be taken into account as well, and they are described by odes in a similar way as the abiotic nutrients. We use numerical bifurcation analysis to assess the long-term dynamic behaviour for varying degrees of symbiosis. Attractors can be equilibria, limit cycles and chaotic attractors depending on the control parameters of the chemostat reactor. These control parameters that can be experimentally manipulated are the nutrient density of the inflow medium and the dilution rate. Bifurcation diagrams for the three species web with a facultative symbiotic association between the two prey populations, are similar to that of a bi-trophic food chain; nutrient enrichment leads to oscillatory behaviour. Predation combined with obligatory symbiotic prey-interactions has a stabilizing effect, that is, there is stable coexistence in a larger part of the parameter space than for a bi-trophic food chain. However, combined with a large growth rate of the predator, the food web can persist only in a relatively small region of the parameter space. Then, two zero-pair bifurcation points are the organizing centers. In each of these points, in addition to a tangent, transcritical and Hopf bifurcation a global heteroclinic bifurcation is emanating. This heteroclinic cycle connects two saddle equilibria where the predator is absent. Under parameter variation the period of the stable limit cycle goes to infinity and the cycle tends to the heteroclinic cycle. At this global bifurcation point this cycle breaks and the boundary of the basin of attraction disappears abruptly because the separatrix disappears together with the cycle. As a result, it becomes possible that a stable two-nutrient–two-prey population system becomes unstable by invasion of a predator and eventually the predator goes extinct together with the two prey populations, that is, the complete food web is destroyed. This is a form of over-exploitation by the predator population of the two symbiotic prey populations. When obligatory symbiotic prey-interactions are modelled with Liebigs minimum law, where growth is limited by the most limiting resource, more complicated types of bifurcations are found. This results from the fact that the Jacobian matrix changes discontinuously with respect to a varying parameter when another resource becomes most limiting.Revised version: 21 July 2003     

The computer-aided bifurcation analysis of predator-prey models

Mathematical analysis of dynamical systems can often benefit from accompanying numerical computations. This is particularly true if one has software (e.g. AUTO [6, 7]) capable of providing an automatic bifurcation analysis of such systems. Computer programs of this type now exist. We describe the application of such software to a predator-prey model. Phenomena that arise in this analysis include stationary bifurcations, limit points, Hopf bifurcations and secondary periodic bifurcations. A two-parameter numerical analysis leads quite naturally to the detection of higher order singularities.Supported in part by NSERC Canada (#4274) and FCAC Québec (#EQ1438)     

Enrichment in a general class of stoichiometric producer-consumer population growth models

This paper presents the derivation and partial analysis of a general producer-consumer model. The model is stoichiometric in that it includes the growth constraints imposed by species-specific biomass carbon to nutrient ratios. The model unifies the approaches of other studies in recent years, and is calibrated from an extensive review of the algae-Daphnia literature. Numerical simulations and bifurcation analysis are used to examine the impact of energy enrichment under nutrient and stoichiometric constraints. Our results suggest that the variety of system responses previously cited for related models can be attributed to the size of the total system nutrient pool, which is here assumed fixed. New, more complicated bifurcation sequences, such as multiple homoclinic bifurcations, are demonstrated as well. The mechanistic basis of the model permits us to show the robustness of the system’s dynamics subject to alternate approaches to modeling producer and consumer biomass production.     

Analysis of chaotic oscillations induced in two coupled Wilson–Cowan models

Although it is known that two coupled Wilson–Cowan models with reciprocal connections induce aperiodic oscillations, little attention has been paid to the dynamical mechanism for such oscillations so far. In this study, we aim to elucidate the fundamental mechanism to induce the aperiodic oscillations in the coupled model. First, aperiodic oscillations observed are investigated for the case when the connections are unidirectional and when the input signal is a periodic oscillation. By the phase portrait analysis, we determine that the aperiodic oscillations are caused by periodically forced state transitions between a stable equilibrium and a stable limit cycle attractors around the saddle-node and saddle separatrix loop bifurcation points. It is revealed that the dynamical mechanism where the state crosses over the saddle-node and saddle separatrix loop bifurcations significantly contributes to the occurrence of chaotic oscillations forced by a periodic input. In addition, this mechanism can also give rise to chaotic oscillations in reciprocally connected Wilson–Cowan models. These results suggest that the dynamic attractor transition underlies chaotic behaviors in two coupled Wilson–Cowan oscillators.     

Global dynamics and bifurcation analysis of a host–parasitoid model with strong Allee effect

In this paper, we study the global dynamics and bifurcations of a two-dimensional discrete time host–parasitoid model with strong Allee effect. The existence of fixed points and their stability are analysed in all allowed parametric region. The bifurcation analysis shows that the model can undergo fold bifurcation and Neimark–Sacker bifurcation. As the parameters vary in a small neighbourhood of the Neimark–Sacker bifurcation condition, the unique positive fixed point changes its stability and an invariant closed circle bifurcates from the positive fixed point. From the viewpoint of biology, the invariant closed curve corresponds to the periodic or quasi-periodic oscillations between host and parasitoid populations. Furthermore, it is proved that all solutions of this model are bounded, and there exist some values of the parameters such that the model has a global attractor. These theoretical results reveal the complex dynamics of the present model.     

Ecoepidemic models with prey group defense and feeding saturation

In this paper we consider a model for the herd behavior of prey, that are subject to attacks by specialist predators. The latter are affected by a transmissible disease. With respect to other recently introduced models of the same nature, we focus here our attention to the possible feeding satiation phenomenon. The system dynamics is thoroughly investigated, to show the occurrence of several types of bifurcations. In addition to the transcritical and Hopf bifurcation that occur commonly in predator–prey system also a zero-Hopf and a global bifurcation occur. The Hopf and the global bifurcation occur only in the disease-free (so purely demographic) system. The latter is a heteroclinic connection for the between saddle equilibrium points where a stable limit cycle is disrupted and where the system disease-free collapses while in a parameter space region the endemic system exists stably.     

Combined effects of LTP/LTD and synaptic scaling in formation of discrete and line attractors with persistent activity from non-trivial baseline

In this article, we analyze combined effects of LTP/LTD and synaptic scaling and study the creation of persistent activity from a periodic or chaotic baseline attractor. The bifurcations leading to the creation of new attractors have been detailed; this was achieved using a mean field approximation. Attractors encoding persistent activity can notably appear via generalized period-doubling bifurcations, tangent bifurcations of the second iterates or boundary crises, after which the basins of attraction become irregular. Synaptic scaling is shown to maintain the coexistence of a state of persistent activity and the baseline. According to the rate of change of the external inputs, different types of attractors can be formed: line attractors for rapidly changing external inputs and discrete attractors for constant external inputs.     

Eye movement instabilities and nystagmus can be predicted by a nonlinear dynamics model of the saccadic system

The study of eye movements and oculomotor disorders has, for four decades, greatly benefitted from the application of control theoretic concepts. This paper is an example of a complementary approach based on the theory of nonlinear dynamical systems. Recently, a nonlinear dynamics model of the saccadic system was developed, comprising a symmetric piecewise-smooth system of six first-order autonomous ordinary differential equations. A preliminary numerical investigation of the model revealed that in addition to generating normal saccades, it could also simulate inaccurate saccades, and the oscillatory instability known as congenital nystagmus (CN). By varying the parameters of the model, several types of CN oscillations were produced, including jerk, bidirectional jerk and pendular nystagmus. The aim of this study was to investigate the bifurcations and attractors of the model, in order to obtain a classification of the simulated oculomotor behaviours. The application of standard stability analysis techniques, together with numerical work, revealed that the equations have a rich bifurcation structure. In addition to Hopf, homoclinic and saddlenode bifurcations organised by a Takens-Bogdanov point, the equations can undergo nonsmooth pitchfork bifurcations and nonsmooth gluing bifurcations. Evidence was also found for the existence of Hopf-initiated canards. The simulated jerk CN waveforms were found to correspond to a pair of post-canard symmetry-related limit cycles, which exist in regions of parameter space where the equations are a slow-fast system. The slow and fast phases of the simulated oscillations were attributed to the geometry of the corresponding slow manifold. The simulated bidirectional jerk and pendular waveforms were attributed to a symmetry invariant limit cycle produced by the gluing of the asymmetric cycles. In contrast to control models of the oculomotor system, the bifurcation analysis places clear restrictions on which kinds of behaviour are likely to be associated with each other in parameter space, enabling predictions to be made regarding the possible changes in the oscillation type that may be observed upon changing the model parameters. The analysis suggests that CN is one of a range of oculomotor disorders associated with a pathological saccadic braking signal, and that jerk and pendular nystagmus are the most probable oscillatory instabilities. Additionally, the transition from jerk CN to bidirectional jerk and pendular nystagmus observed experimentally when the gaze angle or attention level is changed is attributed to a gluing bifurcation. This suggests the possibility of manipulating the waveforms of subjects with jerk CN experimentally to produce waveforms with an extended foveation period, thereby improving visual resolution.     

Nonlinear EEG analysis based on a neural mass model

The well-known neural mass model described by Lopes da Silva et al. (1976) and Zetterberg et al. (1978) is fitted to actual EEG data. This is achieved by reformulating the original set of integral equations as a continuous-discrete state space model. The local linearization approach is then used to discretize the state equation and to construct a nonlinear Kalman filter. On this basis, a maximum likelihood procedure is used for estimating the model parameters for several EEG recordings. The analysis of the noise-free differential equations of the estimated models suggests that there are two different types of alpha rhythms: those with a point attractor and others with a limit cycle attractor. These attractors are also found by means of a nonlinear time series analysis of the EEG recordings. We conclude that the Hopf bifurcation described by Zetterberg et al. (1978) is present in actual brain dynamics. Received: 11 August 1997 / Accepted in revised form: 20 April 1999     

Dynamics of a intraguild predation model with generalist or specialist predator

Intraguild predation (IGP) is a combination of competition and predation which is the most basic system in food webs that contains three species where two species that are involved in a predator/prey relationship are also competing for a shared resource or prey. We formulate two intraguild predation (IGP: resource, IG prey and IG predator) models: one has generalist predator while the other one has specialist predator. Both models have Holling-Type I functional response between resource-IG prey and resource-IG predator; Holling-Type III functional response between IG prey and IG predator. We provide sufficient conditions of the persistence and extinction of all possible scenarios for these two models, which give us a complete picture on their global dynamics. In addition, we show that both IGP models can have multiple interior equilibria under certain parameters range. These analytical results indicate that IGP model with generalist predator has “top down” regulation by comparing to IGP model with specialist predator. Our analysis and numerical simulations suggest that: (1) Both IGP models can have multiple attractors with complicated dynamical patterns; (2) Only IGP model with specialist predator can have both boundary attractor and interior attractor, i.e., whether the system has the extinction of one species or the coexistence of three species depending on initial conditions; (3) IGP model with generalist predator is prone to have coexistence of three species.