Analysis of a Dengue Model with Vertical Transmission and Application to the 2014 Dengue Outbreak in Guangdong Province,China

There is evidence showing that vertical transmission of dengue virus exists in Aedes mosquitoes. In this paper, we propose a deterministic dengue model with vertical transmission in mosquitoes by including aquatic mosquitoes (eggs, larvae and pupae), adult mosquitoes (susceptible, exposed and infectious) and human hosts (susceptible, exposed, infectious and recovered). We first analyze the existence and stability of disease-free equilibria, calculate the basic reproduction number and discuss the existence of the disease-endemic equilibrium. Then, we study the impact of vertical transmission of the virus in mosquitoes on the spread dynamics of dengue. We also use the model to simulate the reported infected human data from the 2014 dengue outbreak in Guangdong Province, China, carry out sensitivity analysis of the basic reproduction number in terms of the model parameters, and seek for effective control measures for the transmission of dengue virus.     

Estimating the magnitude and direction of altered arbovirus transmission due to viral phenotype

Vectorial capacity is a measure of the transmission potential of a vector borne pathogen within a susceptible population. Vector competence, a component of the vectorial capacity equation, is the ability of an arthropod to transmit an infectious agent following exposure to that agent. Comparisons of arbovirus strain-specific vector competence estimates have been used to support observed or hypothesized differences in transmission capability. Typically, such comparisons are made at a single time point during the extrinsic incubation period, the time in days it takes for the virus to replicate and disseminate to the salivary glands. However, vectorial capacity includes crucial parameters needed to effectively evaluate transmission capability, though often this is based on the discrete vector competence values. Utilization of the rate of change of vector competence over a range of days gives a more accurate measurement of the transmission potential. Accordingly, we investigated the rate of change in vector competence of dengue virus in Aedes aegypti mosquitoes and the resulting vectorial capacity curves. The areas under the curves represent the effective vector competence and the cumulative transmission potentials of arboviruses within a population of mosquitoes. We used the calculated area under the curve for each virus strain and the corresponding variance estimates to test for differences in cumulative transmission potentials between strains of dengue virus based on our dynamic model. To further characterize differences between dengue strains, we devised a displacement index interpreted as the capability of a newly introduced strain to displace the established, dominant circulating strain. The displacement index can be used to better understand the transmission dynamics in systems where multiple strains/serotypes circulate or even multiple arbovirus species. The use of a rate of a rate of change based model of vectorial capacity and the informative calculations of the displacement index will lead to better measurements of the differences in transmission potential of arboviruses.     

Estimating chikungunya virus transmission parameters and vector control effectiveness highlights key factors to mitigate arboviral disease outbreaks

BackgroundViruses transmitted by Aedes mosquitoes have greatly expanded their geographic range in recent decades. They are considered emerging public health threats throughout the world, including Europe. Therefore, public health authorities must be prepared by quantifying the potential magnitude of virus transmission and the effectiveness of interventions.MethodologyWe developed a mathematical model with a vector-host structure for chikungunya virus transmission and estimated model parameters from epidemiological data of the two main autochthonous chikungunya virus transmission events that occurred in Southern France, in Montpellier (2014) and in Le Cannet-des-Maures (2017). We then performed simulations of the model using these estimates to forecast the magnitude of the foci of transmission as a function of the response delay and the moment of virus introduction.ConclusionsThe results of the different simulations underline the relative importance of each variable and can be useful to stakeholders when designing context-based intervention strategies. The findings emphasize the importance of, and advocate for early detection of imported cases and timely biological confirmation of autochthonous cases to ensure timely vector control measures, supporting the implementation and the maintenance of sustainable surveillance systems.     

Anti-mosquito antibodies reduce the susceptibility of Aedes aegypti to arbovirus infection

Aedes aegypti (L.) mosquitoes showed a significant reduction in susceptibility to infection with Ross River virus and Murray Valley encephalitis virus when they were fed on a blood-virus mixture containing rabbit antibodies to mosquito midgut components. Presence of the antibodies did not demonstrably affect virus titres in infected mosquitoes, nor the transmission of virus from infected mosquitoes to vertebrates.     

Modelling the effect of temperature on transmission of dengue

The main entomological parameters involved in the rate of dengue virus transmission include the longevity of female mosquitoes, the time interval between bites and the extrinsic incubation period of the virus. Field and laboratory data provide estimates for these parameters, but their interactions with other factors (e.g. host population density and environmental parameters) make their integration into a transmission model quite complex. To estimate the impact of these parameters on transmission, we developed a model of virus transmission by a vector population which predicts the number of potentially infective bites under a range of temperatures and entomological parameters, including the daily survival rate of females, the interval between bites and the extrinsic incubation period. Results show that in a stable population, an increase in mosquito longevity disproportionately enhances the number of potential transmissions (e.g. by as much as five times when the survival rate rises from 0.80 to 0.95). Halving the length of the biting interval with a 10-°C rise in temperature increases the transmission rate by at least 2.4 times. Accordingly, the model can predict changes in dengue transmission associated with short-term variation in seasonal temperature and also with potentially long-lasting increases in global temperatures.     

West Nile Virus: High Transmission Rate in North-Western European Mosquitoes Indicates Its Epidemic Potential and Warrants Increased Surveillance

Background

West Nile virus (WNV) is a highly pathogenic flavivirus transmitted by Culex spp. mosquitoes. In North America (NA), lineage 1 WNV caused the largest outbreak of neuroinvasive disease to date, while a novel pathogenic lineage 2 strain circulates in southern Europe. To estimate WNV lineage 2 epidemic potential it is paramount to know if mosquitoes from currently WNV-free areas can support further spread of this epidemic.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We assessed WNV vector competence of Culex pipiens mosquitoes originating from north-western Europe (NWE) in direct comparison with those from NA. We exposed mosquitoes to infectious blood meals of lineage 1 or 2 WNV and determined the infection and transmission rates. We explored reasons for vector competence differences by comparing intrathoracic injection versus blood meal infection, and we investigated the influence of temperature. We found that NWE mosquitoes are highly competent for both WNV lineages, with transmission rates up to 25%. Compared to NA mosquitoes, transmission rates for lineage 2 WNV were significantly elevated in NWE mosquitoes due to better virus dissemination from the midgut and a shorter extrinsic incubation time. WNV infection rates further increased with temperature increase.

Conclusions/Significance

Our study provides experimental evidence to indicate markedly different risk levels between both continents for lineage 2 WNV transmission and suggests a degree of genotype-genotype specificity in the interaction between virus and vector. Our experiments with varying temperatures explain the current localized WNV activity in southern Europe, yet imply further epidemic spread throughout NWE during periods with favourable climatic conditions. This emphasizes the need for intensified surveillance of virus activity in current WNV disease-free regions and warrants increased awareness in clinics throughout Europe.     

Role of gregarine parasite Ascogregarina culicis (Apicomplexa: Lecudinidae) in the maintenance of Chikungunya virus in vector mosquito

Ascogregarina culicis and Ascogregarina taiwanensis are common gregarine parasites of Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus mosquitoes, respectively. These mosquito species are also known to transmit dengue and Chikungunya viruses. The sporozoites of these parasites invade the midgut epithelial cells and develop intracellularly and extracellularly in the gut to complete their life cycles. The midgut is also the primary site for virus replication in the vector mosquitoes. Therefore, studies were carried out with a view to determine the possible role of these gregarines in the vertical transmission of dengue and Chikungunya viruses from larval to adult stage. Experiments were performed by exposing first instar mosquito larvae to suspensions containing parasite oocysts and viruses. Since Ascogregarina sporozoites invade the midgut of first instar larvae, the vertical transmission was determined by feeding the uninfected first instar larvae on the freshly prepared homogenates from mosquitoes, which were dually infected with viruses and the parasite oocysts. Similarly, the role of protozoan parasites in the vertical transmission of viruses was determined by exposing fresh first instar larvae to the dried pellets of homogenates prepared from the mosquitoes dually infected with viruses and the parasite oocysts. Direct vertical transmission and the vertical transmission of CHIK virus through the oocyst of the parasites were observed in the case of Ae. aegypti mosquitoes. It is suggested that As. culicis may have an important role in the maintenance of CHIK virus during the inter-epidemic period.     

Dynamics of malaria transmission model with sterile mosquitoes

In this paper, a malaria transmission model with sterile mosquitoes is considered. We first formulate a simple SEIR malaria transmission model as our baseline model. Then sterile mosquitoes are introduced into the baseline model. We consider the case that the release rate of sterile mosquitoes is proportional to the wild mosquito population size. To investigate the impact of releasing sterile mosquitoes on the malaria transmission, the dynamics of the baseline model and the models with the sterile mosquitoes are discussed. We derive formulas of the reproductive numbers and explore the existence of endemic equilibrium as the reproductive number is more than unity for these models. It is shown that both the baseline model and the models with the sterile mosquitoes undergo backward bifurcations. Based on theoretical analysis and numerical simulation, we investigate the impact of releasing sterile mosquitoes on malaria transmission.     

Cache Valley virus: experimental infection in Culiseta inornata

Experiments were conducted to examine the dynamics of Cache Valley virus in Culiseta inornata, the probable chief vector of the virus. Of about 1500 laboratory reared C. inornata exposed to viraemic suckling mice, 72 took a blood meal. A relatively high precentage (93%) of the latter mosquitoes became infected. The virus increased more than 100-fold in the experimentally infected mosquitoes. The increasing viral titres were noticed after 7 days and after 15 days. Peak titres averaged 105.0 (mean suckling mouse intracerebral lethal dose) SMICLD50/0.02 mL. The infected mosquitoes had peak titres until at least 35 days after the mosquitoes ingested blood from infected suckling mice. A single trasmission of virus by bite occurred 30 days after the viraemic blood meal. Transovarial transmission was demonstrated. In two experiments, 3.3 and 2.9% of infected mosquitoes transovarially transmitted Cache Valley virus to both male and female progeny. The minimum infection rate for the progeny was 2.05/1000 mosquitoes. This is the first reported experimental demonstration of transovarian transmission in a species of mosquito which overwinters as an adult. The role of transovarian transmission in the natural maintenance of Cache Valley virus remains undetermined.     

Effects of infection-induced migration delays on the epidemiology of avian influenza in wild mallard populations

Wild waterfowl populations form a natural reservoir of Avian Influenza (AI) virus, and fears exist that these birds may contribute to an AI pandemic by spreading the virus along their migratory flyways. Observational studies suggest that individuals infected with AI virus may delay departure from migratory staging sites. Here, we explore the epidemiological dynamics of avian influenza virus in a migrating mallard (Anas platyrhynchos) population with a specific view to understanding the role of infection-induced migration delays on the spread of virus strains of differing transmissibility. We develop a host-pathogen model that combines the transmission dynamics of influenza with the migration, reproduction and mortality of the host bird species. Our modeling predicts that delayed migration of individuals influences both the timing and size of outbreaks of AI virus. We find that (1) delayed migration leads to a lower total number of cases of infection each year than in the absence of migration delay, (2) when the transmission rate of a strain is high, the outbreak starts at the staging sites at which birds arrive in the early part of the fall migration, (3) when the transmission rate is low, infection predominantly occurs later in the season, which is further delayed when there is a migration delay. As such, the rise of more virulent AI strains in waterfowl could lead to a higher prevalence of infection later in the year, which could change the exposure risk for farmed poultry. A sensitivity analysis shows the importance of generation time and loss of immunity for the effect of migration delays. Thus, we demonstrate, in contrast to many current transmission risk models solely using empirical information on bird movements to assess the potential for transmission, that a consideration of infection-induced delays is critical to understanding the dynamics of AI infection along the entire flyway.     

白纹伊蚊和埃及伊蚊对基孔肯雅病毒的易感性和传播性的研究

用４株基孔肯雅病毒经口感染白纹伊蚊和埃及伊蚊,进行了易感性和传播性的研究。结果表明,这两种蚊虫对基孔肯雅病毒易感。无论白纹伊蚊或埃及伊蚊,感染后第５－６天即可通过吸血将病毒传播给乳鼠,至第８－１３天,传播率可高达５５．５５％－１００％。感染蚊亦可经叮咬将病毒传播给小鸡。埃及伊蚊的易感性和传播率高于白纹伊蚊。实验还发现,不同来源毒株之间存在一定差异,如分离自云南白纹伊蚊的Ｍ８１株的感染率和传播率均高于其它毒株。这些结果表明,白纹伊蚊和埃及伊蚊在基孔肯雅病毒的保存和传播中起重要作用。     

Threshold Dynamics of a Temperature-Dependent Stage-Structured Mosquito Population Model with Nested Delays

Mosquito-borne diseases remain a significant threat to public health and economics. Since mosquitoes are quite sensitive to temperature, global warming may not only worsen the disease transmission case in current endemic areas but also facilitate mosquito population together with pathogens to establish in new regions. Therefore, understanding mosquito population dynamics under the impact of temperature is considerably important for making disease control policies. In this paper, we develop a stage-structured mosquito population model in the environment of a temperature-controlled experiment. The model turns out to be a system of periodic delay differential equations with periodic delays. We show that the basic reproduction number is a threshold parameter which determines whether the mosquito population goes to extinction or remains persistent. We then estimate the parameter values for Aedes aegypti, the mosquito that transmits dengue virus. We verify the analytic result by numerical simulations with the temperature data of Colombo, Sri Lanka where a dengue outbreak occurred in 2017.     

Intracellular Vesicle Acidification Promotes Maturation of Infectious Poliovirus Particles

The autophagic pathway acts as part of the immune response against a variety of pathogens. However, several pathogens subvert autophagic signaling to promote their own replication. In many cases it has been demonstrated that these pathogens inhibit or delay the degradative aspect of autophagy. Here, using poliovirus as a model virus, we report for the first time bona fide autophagic degradation occurring during infection with a virus whose replication is promoted by autophagy. We found that this degradation is not required to promote poliovirus replication. However, vesicular acidification, which in the case of autophagy precedes delivery of cargo to lysosomes, is required for normal levels of virus production. We show that blocking autophagosome formation inhibits viral RNA synthesis and subsequent steps in the virus cycle, while inhibiting vesicle acidification only inhibits the final maturation cleavage of virus particles. We suggest that particle assembly, genome encapsidation, and virion maturation may occur in a cellular compartment, and we propose the acidic mature autophagosome as a candidate vesicle. We discuss the implications of our findings in understanding the late stages of poliovirus replication, including the formation and maturation of virions and egress of infectious virus from cells.     

West Nile virus cluster analysis and vertical transmission in Culex pipiens complex mosquitoes in Sacramento and Yolo Counties,California, 2011

West Nile virus (WNV) is now endemic in California, with annual transmission documented by the statewide surveillance system. Although much is known about the horizontal avian‐mosquito transmission cycle, less is known about vertical transmission under field conditions, which may supplement virus amplification during summer and provide a mechanism to infect overwintering female mosquitoes during fall. The current study identified clusters of WNV‐infected mosquitoes in Sacramento and Yolo Counties, CA, during late summer 2011 and tested field‐captured ovipositing female mosquitoes and their progeny for WNV RNA to estimate the frequency of vertical transmission. Space‐time clustering of WNV‐positive Culex pipiens complex pools was detected in the northern Elk Grove area of Sacramento County between July 18 and September 18, 2011 (5.22 km radius; p<0.001 and RR=7.80). Vertical transmission by WNV‐infected females to egg rafts was 50% and to larvae was 40%. The estimated minimal filial infection rate from WNV‐positive, ovipositing females was 2.0 infected females/1,000. The potential contribution of vertical transmission to WNV maintenance and amplification are discussed.     

Study of sequence variation of dengue type 3 virus in naturally infected mosquitoes and human hosts: implications for transmission and evolution

Dengue virus is an arbovirus that replicates alternately in the mosquito vector and human host. We investigated sequences of dengue type 3 virus in naturally infected Aedes aegypti mosquitoes and in eight patients from the same outbreak and reported that the extent of sequence variation seen with the mosquitoes was generally lower than that seen with the patients (mean diversity, 0.21 versus 0.38% and 0.09 versus 0.23% for the envelope [E] and capsid [C] genes, respectively). This was further verified with five experimentally infected mosquitoes (mean diversity, 0.09 and 0.10% for the E and C genes, respectively). Examination of the quasispecies structures of the E sequences of the mosquitoes and of the patients revealed that the sequences of the major variants were the same, suggesting that the major variant was transmitted. These findings support our hypothesis that mosquitoes contribute to the evolutionary conservation of dengue virus by maintaining a more homogenous viral population and a dominant variant during transmission.     

Transmission dynamics of the recently-identified BYD virus causing duck egg-drop syndrome

Baiyangdian (BYD) virus is a recently-identified mosquito-borne flavivirus that causes severe disease in ducks, with extremely rapid transmission, up to 15% mortality within 10 days and 90% reduction in egg production on duck farms within 5 days of infection. Because of the zoonotic nature of flaviviruses, the characterization of BYD virus and its epidemiology are important public health concerns. Here, we develop a mathematical model for the transmission dynamics of this novel virus. We validate the model against BYD outbreak data collected from duck farms in Southeast China, as well as experimental data obtained from an animal facility. Based on our model, the basic reproductive number of BYD virus is high (R(0) = 21) indicating that this virus is highly transmissible, consistent with the dramatic epidemiology observed in BYDV-affected duck farms. Our results indicate that younger ducks are more vulnerable to BYD disease and that ducks infected with BYD virus reduce egg production (to about 33% on average) for about 3 days post-infection; after 3 days infected ducks are no longer able to produce eggs. Using our model, we predict that control measures which reduce contact between mosquitoes and ducks such as mosquito nets are more effective than insecticides.     

Mechanism of vertical transmission of the dengue virus in mosquitoes

Both experimental and field data suggest that some tropical mosquito-borne flaviviruses, such as dengue and yellow fever, survive dry seasons by vertical (i.e. transgenerational) transmission in their mosquito hosts. Although vertical transmission of arboviruses in mosquitoes is considered to be transovarial in nature, observations reported here indicate that this is probably not true for dengue virus. Rather, infection of the next generation with this virus apparently takes place when the fully developed egg, enclosed in the chorion, is fertilized at the time of oviposition. In contrast to transovarial transmission, the latter mechanism permits the infection of progeny following a single maternal blood meal.     

The 2000 epidemic of Rift Valley fever in Saudi Arabia: mosquito vector studies

In mid-September 2000, Rift Valley fever (RVF) virus was diagnosed as the cause of infection in humans and livestock in Jizan Region, Saudi Arabia. This is the first time that this arbovirus has been found outside Africa and Madagascar. Collections of mosquitoes (Diptera: Culicidae) were therefore undertaken (from 25 September to 10 October) at eight sites during the epidemic to obtain mosquitoes for attempted RVF virus isolation. Among 23 699 mosquito females tested, six isolations of RVF virus were made from 15 428 Culex (Culex) tritaeniorhynchus Giles and seven from 8091 Aedes (Aedimorphus) vexans arabiensis Patton [corrected]. Minimum mosquito infection rates per 1000 at sites with infected mosquitoes were 0.3-13.8 Cx. tritaeniorhynchus and 1.94-9.03 Ae. v. arabiensis. Viral activity moved northwards as collecting was in progress and collectors 'caught up' with the virus at the two most northerly sites on the last two trapping evenings. Other species occurred in small numbers and were identified but not tested. Both Cx. tritaeniorhynchus and Ae. v. arabiensis were susceptible to RVF virus and transmitted between hamsters, and an additional quantitative test with Cx. tritaeniorhynchus showed that 71-73% of mosquitoes became infected after ingesting 6.9-7.9 log10 FFU/mL of virus; transmission rates were 10% (post-infection day 14) and 26% (post-infection day 20). It was concluded that both species were vectors on grounds of abundance, distribution, preference for humans and sheep, the virus isolations and vector competence tests.     

Fine-scale variation in vector host use and force of infection drive localized patterns of West Nile virus transmission

The influence of host diversity on multi-host pathogen transmission and persistence can be confounded by the large number of species and biological interactions that can characterize many transmission systems. For vector-borne pathogens, the composition of host communities has been hypothesized to affect transmission; however, the specific characteristics of host communities that affect transmission remain largely unknown. We tested the hypothesis that vector host use and force of infection (i.e., the summed number of infectious mosquitoes resulting from feeding upon each vertebrate host within a community of hosts), and not simply host diversity or richness, determine local infection rates of West Nile virus (WNV) in mosquito vectors. In suburban Chicago, Illinois, USA, we estimated community force of infection for West Nile virus using data on Culex pipiens mosquito host selection and WNV vertebrate reservoir competence for each host species in multiple residential and semi-natural study sites. We found host community force of infection interacted with avian diversity to influence WNV infection in Culex mosquitoes across the study area. Two avian species, the American robin (Turdus migratorius) and the house sparrow (Passer domesticus), produced 95.8% of the infectious Cx. pipiens mosquitoes and showed a significant positive association with WNV infection in Culex spp. mosquitoes. Therefore, indices of community structure, such as species diversity or richness, may not be reliable indicators of transmission risk at fine spatial scales in vector-borne disease systems. Rather, robust assessment of local transmission risk should incorporate heterogeneity in vector host feeding and variation in vertebrate reservoir competence at the spatial scale of vector-host interaction.