Epidemics with general generation interval distributions

We study the spread of susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) infectious diseases where an individual's infectiousness and probability of recovery depend on his/her “age” of infection. We focus first on early outbreak stages when stochastic effects dominate and show that epidemics tend to happen faster than deterministic calculations predict. If an outbreak is sufficiently large, stochastic effects are negligible and we modify the standard ordinary differential equation (ODE) model to accommodate age-of-infection effects. We avoid the use of partial differential equations which typically appear in related models. We introduce a “memoryless” ODE system which approximates the true solutions. Finally, we analyze the transition from the stochastic to the deterministic phase.     

The distribution of the coalescence time and the number of pairwise nucleotide differences in a model of population divergence or speciation with an initial period of gene flow

This paper is concerned with a model of “isolation with an initial period of migration”, where a panmictic ancestral population split into n descendant populations which exchanged migrants symmetrically at a constant rate for a period of time and subsequently became completely isolated. In the limit as the population split occurred an infinitely long time ago, the model becomes an “isolation after migration” model, describing completely isolated descendant populations which arose from a subdivided ancestral population. The probability density function of the coalescence time of a pair of genes and the probability distribution of the number of pairwise nucleotide differences are derived for both models. Whilst these are theoretical results of interest in their own right, they also give an exact analytical expression for the likelihood, for data consisting of the numbers of nucleotide differences between pairs of DNA sequences where each pair is at a different, independent locus. The behaviour of the distribution of the number of pairwise nucleotide differences under these models is illustrated and compared to the corresponding distributions under the “isolation with migration” and “complete isolation” models. It is shown that the distribution of the number of nucleotide differences between a pair of DNA sequences from different descendant populations in the model of “isolation with an initial period of migration” can be quite different from that under the “isolation with migration model”, even if the average migration rate over time (and hence the total number of migrants) is the same in both scenarios. It is also illustrated how the results can be extended to other demographic scenarios that can be described by a combination of isolated panmictic populations and “symmetric island” models.     

The rise and rise of emerging infectious fungi challenges food security and ecosystem health

This article highlights some of the more notable persistent fungal diseases of our times. It draws attention to the emergence of new fungal pathotypes infecting food staple crops, due largely to modern agricultural practices, and to nascent fungal diseases decimating frog populations worldwide and killing hibernating bats in Northern USA. We invoke use of the basic disease triangle concept to highlight the “missing” data, with regards to pathogen and host biology and to the various environmental parameters which may dictate disease spread. Given these data “voids” we comment on the implementation of policy. We conclude with a series of recommendations for improved disease surveillance and reporting, the need for greater public awareness of these issues and a call for greater funding for fungal research. In so doing, we have exploited Magnaporthe oryzae and Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis as exemplar emerging infectious fungi. Our aim is to highlight the impact of emerging and emergent fungi on food security and, more broadly, ecosystem health.     

Baroreflex variability and “resetting”: A new perspective

A new framework is proposed for the interpretation of spontaneous cardiac baroreflex sensitivity data and the general concept of baroreflex resetting. The framework is used to explore baroreflex function along two separate lines of inquiry: one following a direct intervention in baroreflex function in individual subjects, another in a group of subjects where baroreflex function may have been compromised by coronary artery disease or aging. It is found that under baseline conditions the baroreflex is in a “free-floating” state in which the gain or “sensitivity” is highly variable, while under orthostatic stress or in the absence of or reduced vagal input the gain is more tightly controlled with an expected decline in sensitivity but a very large decline in the variability of that sensitivity. It is concluded that baroreflex “resetting” is better viewed not simply as a change in baroreflex sensitivity but rather as a change in the “focus” or “attention” of the baroreflex as expressed by an observed decline in the variability of the measured gain. The results do not support the interpretation of baroreflex “resetting” as a departure from or return to a universal “set point” as in homeostasis or open loop models.     

Characterisation of physiological and immunological differences between Pacific oysters (Crassostrea gigas) genetically selected for high or low survival to summer mortalities and fed different rations under controlled conditions

Within the framework of a national scientific program named “MORtalités ESTivales de l'huître creuse Crassostrea gigas” (MOREST), a family-based experiment was developed to study the genetic basis of resistance to summer mortality in the Pacific oyster, Crassostrea gigas. As part of the MOREST project, the second generation of three resistant families and two susceptible families were chosen and pooled into two respective groups: “R” and “S”. These two groups of oysters were conditioned for 6 months on two food levels (4% and 12% of oyster soft-tissue dry weight in algal dry weight per day) with a temperature gradient that mimicked the Marennes-Oléron natural cycle during the oyster reproductive period. Oyster mortality remained low for the first two months, but then rapidly increased in July when seawater temperature reached 19 °C and above. Mortality was higher in “S” oysters than in “R” oysters, and also higher in oysters fed the 12% diet than those fed 4%, resulting in a decreasing, relative order in cumulative mortality as follows; 12% “S” > 12% “R” > 4% “S” > 4% “R”. Although the observed mortality rates were lower than those previously observed in the field, the mortality differential between “R” and “S” oysters was similar. Gonadal development, estimated by tissue lipid content, followed a relative order yielding a direct, positive relationship between reproductive effort and mortality as we reported precedently by quantitative histology. Regarding hemocyte parameters, one of the most striking observations was that reactive oxygen species (ROS) production was significantly higher in “S” oysters than in “R” oysters in May and June, regardless of food level. The absence of known environmental stress under these experimental conditions suggests that the ROS increase in “S” oyster could be related to their higher reproductive activity. Finally, a higher increase in hyalinocyte counts was observed for”S” oysters, compared to “R” oysters, in July, just before mortality. Taken together, our results suggest an association of genetically based resistance to summer mortality, reproductive strategy and hemocyte parameters.     

Analysis of Variable Fractions Resulting from Microbial Counts

In microbiological studies various methods are employed to estimate fractions from paired counts of organisms. When the fraction (second count divided by first count) is constant among the paired counts, the maximum likelihood estimate is the ratio of the arithmetic means. In many practical applications this fraction may however not be constant, but vary substantially between pairs of counts.We discuss a statistical method that estimates the distribution of the fraction from pairs of counts, to allow for this variation. Four real data sets (concerning viability for growth and infection, recovery of a detection method, and removal in a treatment process) are analyzed by this method.Often, pairs of counts are not determined in the same physical sample, but the first count is made in one sample, and the second count in a second sample. We provide parametric models to deal with such a situation: the desired fraction is still estimated as a binomial probability, but the model includes sampling effects. This approach also allows for analysis of two distinct cases: paired observations, where the counts before and after are related in some way to each other, and unpaired observations, where they are not. The four models for separate samples: paired or unpaired observations, and binomial probability fixed or variable, are used to analyze the removal data.It is concluded that this approach of statistical analysis of fractions is more appropriate than often used calculations based on the ratio between the (geometric) means before and after. The implications for risk analysis are briefly discussed.     

Effects of a disease affecting a predator on the dynamics of a predator-prey system

We study the effects of a disease affecting a predator on the dynamics of a predator-prey system. We couple an SIRS model applied to the predator population, to a Lotka-Volterra model. The SIRS model describes the spread of the disease in a predator population subdivided into susceptible, infected and removed individuals. The Lotka-Volterra model describes the predator-prey interactions. We consider two time scales, a fast one for the disease and a comparatively slow one for predator-prey interactions and for predator mortality. We use the classical “aggregation method” in order to obtain a reduced equivalent model. We show that there are two possible asymptotic behaviors: either the predator population dies out and the prey tends to its carrying capacity, or the predator and prey coexist. In this latter case, the predator population tends either to a “disease-free” or to a “disease-endemic” state. Moreover, the total predator density in the disease-endemic state is greater than the predator density in the “disease-free” equilibrium (DFE).     

Tail variation of the folding primer affects the SmartAmp2 process differently

Folding primer (FP), together with turn-back primer (TP) and boost primer (BP), is one of the major components of SmartAmp2, a rapid amplification-based method for SNP detection. FP has a unique design where the annealing region is combined with a tail that can fold back. FP tails can be classified as either “strong” or “weak”, depending on the melting temperature and free energy of the hairpin structure. We report that FP tails affect the amplification process differently; by changing the FP concentration, we can increase the amplification reaction speed with “strong tails”. Unlike “strong tails”, concentration change of FP with “weak tails” did not show significant impact on the amplification speed. The comparative analyses using gel electrophoresis demonstrate that the FP type and FP ratio in the reaction change the amplification pattern. The above observations can be used to optimize the reaction and manipulate the reaction speed of SmartAmp2.     

Trade-related Infections: Global Traffic and Microbial Travel

Science is only beginning to understand the interplay between global trade and human infectious diseases. The reported frequency of the emergence of new human pathogens has been increasing, coincident with the burgeoning of global trade. This report examines the phenomenon of trade related infections which are infections whose emergence, or dissemination and transmission may be driven by global trade in commodities, or whose occurrence cause major economic impact through trade disruption. Through four case studies, the interplay between global trade and the emergence and dissemination of new human infections is described. The examples are drawn from three distinct types of emergent infections: human immunodeficiency virus/acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (HIV/AIDS) and the trade in blood clotting derivatives, enteric disease and fresh produce, and prion infections and beef. The observations from these studies are then placed in the global policy framework for the control of infectious diseases and the regulation of trade. This framework is embodied in the World Health Organization and the World Trade Organization. While increasing discourse is occurring between the sectors of health and trade at the level of international organizations, such discourse at the national and local level is largely absent. A more complete evidence base for policy decision making is sorely needed to foster a global trading system which also maintains the public safety from emergent infectious diseases.     

Comparing two methods of calculating the probability of absence: the Negative Predictive Value, and a Credible Interval

If sampling fails to reveal the presence of an invasive species with potential to actually be present, how may we calculate the probability that it is truly absent, e.g. didymo (Didymosphenia geminate) in New Zealand’s North Island. In statistical terms this is a Bayesian question, concerning the probability of a hypothesis (presence/absence), given the obtained data (all results negative). “Classical” theory doesn’t answer this question, because it inverts the required considerations by calculating the probability of all samples being absent if the invasive was actually present. Accordingly, the Bayesian view of “probability” must be adopted in order to answer the question. That definition differs from classical probability in that it always includes an element of subjective belief, particularly in the choice of an appropriate “prior probability” (this is our belief as to the presence of the invasive organism before collecting new data). Bayesian methods can therefore be somewhat controversial – but we seem forced to use them. One Bayesian approach is to use the “Negative Predictive Value”, in which a point estimate of the probability of presence (or absence) prior to sample collection (the “prior probability”) is updated using data once collected using Bayes’ rule. This is in common use in medical studies, where the prior probability is the background disease prevalence, which is generally well understood. It is sometimes used in environmental ‘hot-spot’ investigations. An alternative approach is to recognise the uncertainty in the prior belief by using a distribution of prior probability and updating that using data once collected to give a Credible Interval in which the probability of presence (or absence) should lie – if all our assumptions have been satisfied. We will compare the merits of these approaches considering didymo, southern salt marsh mosquito (Aedes camptorhychus) and the sea squirt Styela clava.     

La flore probable : un mode d’expression des gradients écologiques en France

The application of the criterion of fidelity of plants to plants over four millions botanical observations in France is considered to characterize the ecology of 215,000 phytosociological surveys. Among those discriminant plants, some are missing of the surveys, but they can have a certain probability of occurrence: these plants are called “probable plants” and they represent the “probable flora” of a territory. The study of their geographical distribution shows ecological gradients of flora across France in a better way than only considering the botanical observations. In fact, this method mitigates the discontinuities of taxa observations whose absence may be due to historical and/or anthropogenic factors.     

Target-specific screening of antivirulence preparations for chronic infection therapy

Global spread of clinically significant strains resistant to antibiotics necessitated the development of new approaches to generation of antibacterial preparations. Selection of virulence factors as targets for new preparations is an alternative approach to therapy of infections caused by resistant strains and chronic infectious diseases. Contemporary state of research aimed at target selection among virulence factors of pathogenic for humans bacteria that cause chronic infections, and screening of specific inhibitors of these targets are examined. Analysis of limited data of therapeutic activity of selected preparations, i.e. experimental confirmation of the proposed concept, is provided.     

Recombinase-mediated cassette exchange (RMCE) — A rapidly-expanding toolbox for targeted genomic modifications

Starting in 1991, the advance of Tyr-recombinases Flp and Cre enabled superior strategies for the predictable insertion of transgenes into compatible target sites of mammalian cells. Early approaches suffered from the reversibility of integration routes and the fact that co-introduction of prokaryotic vector parts triggered uncontrolled heterochromatization. Shortcomings of this kind were overcome when Flp-Recombinase Mediated Cassette Exchange entered the field in 1994. RMCE enables enhanced tag-and-exchange strategies by precisely replacing a genomic target cassette by a compatible donor construct. After “gene swapping” the donor cassette is safely locked in, but can nevertheless be re-mobilized in case other compatible donor cassettes are provided (“serial RMCE”). These features considerably expand the options for systematic, stepwise genome modifications. The first decade was dominated by the systematic generation of cell lines for biotechnological purposes. Based on the reproducible expression capacity of the resulting strains, a comprehensive toolbox emerged to serve a multitude of purposes, which constitute the first part of this review. The concept per se did not, however, provide access to high-producer strains able to outcompete industrial multiple-copy cell lines. This fact gave rise to systematic improvements, among these certain accumulative site-specific integration pathways. The exceptional value of RMCE emerged after its entry into the stem cell field, where it started to contribute to the generation of induced pluripotent stem (iPS-) cells and their subsequent differentiation yielding a variety of cell types for diagnostic and therapeutic purposes. This topic firmly relies on the strategies developed in the first decade and can be seen as the major ambition of the present article. In this context an unanticipated, potent property of serial Flp-RMCE setups concerns the potential to re-open loci that have served to establish the iPS status before the site underwent the obligatory silencing process. Other relevant options relate to the introduction of composite Flp-recognition target sites (“heterospecific FRT-doublets”), into the LTRs of lentiviral vectors. These “twin sites” enhance the safety of iPS re-programming and -differentiation as they enable the subsequent quantitative excision of a transgene, leaving behind a single “FRT-twin”. Such a strategy combines the established expression potential of the common retro- and lentiviral systems with options to terminate the process at will. The remaining genomic tag serves to identify and characterize the insertion site with the goal to identify genomic “safe harbors” (GOIs) for re-use. This is enabled by the capacity of “FRT-twins” to accommodate any incoming RMCE-donor cassette with a compatible design.     

Mechanism and significance of specific proteolytic cleavage of Reelin

Reelin is a secreted glycoprotein essential for normal brain development and function. In the extracellular milieu, Reelin is subject to specific cleavage at two (N-t and C-t) sites. The N-t cleavage of Reelin is implicated in psychiatric and Alzheimer’s diseases, but the molecular mechanism and physiological significance of this cleavage are not completely understood. Particularly, whether the N-t cleavage affects the signaling activity of Reelin remains controversial.Here, we show that the protease in charge of the N-t cleavage of Reelin requires the activity of certain proprotein convertase family for maturation and has strong affinity for heparin. By taking advantage of these observations, we for the first time succeeded in obtaining “Uncleaved” and “Completely Cleaved” Reelin proteins. The N-t cleavage splits Reelin into two distinct fragments and virtually abolishes its signaling activity. These findings provide an important biochemical basis for the function of Reelin proteolysis in brain development and function.     

Fundamental limits on inferring epidemic resurgence in real time using effective reproduction numbers

We find that epidemic resurgence, defined as an upswing in the effective reproduction number (R) of the contagion from subcritical to supercritical values, is fundamentally difficult to detect in real time. Inherent latencies in pathogen transmission, coupled with smaller and intrinsically noisier case incidence across periods of subcritical spread, mean that resurgence cannot be reliably detected without significant delays of the order of the generation time of the disease, even when case reporting is perfect. In contrast, epidemic suppression (where R falls from supercritical to subcritical values) may be ascertained 5–10 times faster due to the naturally larger incidence at which control actions are generally applied. We prove that these innate limits on detecting resurgence only worsen when spatial or demographic heterogeneities are incorporated. Consequently, we argue that resurgence is more effectively handled proactively, potentially at the expense of false alarms. Timely responses to recrudescent infections or emerging variants of concern are more likely to be possible when policy is informed by a greater quality and diversity of surveillance data than by further optimisation of the statistical models used to process routine outbreak data.     

Pattern generation in molecular evolution: Exploitation of the variation in RNA landscapes

Evolution of RNA secondary structure is studied using simulation techniques and statistical analysis of fitness landscapes. The transition from RNA sequence to RNA secondary structure leads to fitness landscapes that have local variations in their ruggedness. Evolution exploits these variations. In stable environments it moves the quasispecies toward relatively flat peaks, where not only the master sequence but also its mutants have a high fitness. In a rapidly changing environment, the situation is reversed; evolution moves the quasispecies to a region where the correlation between secondary structures of neighboring RNA sequences is relatively low. In selection for simple secondary structures the movement toward flat peaks leads to pattern generation in the RNA sequences. Patterns are generated at the level of polynucleotide frequencies and the distribution of purines and pyrimidines. The patterns increase the modularity of the sequence. They thereby prevent the formation of alternative secondary structures after mutations. The movement of the quasispecies toward relatively rugged parts of the landscape results in pattern generation at the level of the RNA secondary structure. The base-pairing frequency of the sequences increases. The patterns that are generated in the RNA sequences and the RNA secondary structures are not directly selected for and can be regarded as a side effect of the evolutionary dynamics of the system. Correspondence to: M.A. Huynen     

From Fertilization to Adult Sexual Behavior

Research has established the broad mammalian developmental plan that genes on the sex chromosomes influence gonad development which determines gonadal hormone production (or its absence) leading to modification of the genitalia and simultaneously biasing the nervous system to organize adult sexual behavior. This might be considered the “gonad to hormones to behavior” model. It is clear, however, that although this model generally works well it is incomplete. The model does not account for behavioral influences attributed to the environment or to genetic but nongonadal or hormonal factors. In this essay we probe those areas of sexual development that are neither differentiated by hormones nor activated by them. The concept of the environment used for our discussion is very broad; it incorporates considerations of both the molar and the molecular levels. The general sense of the word “environment” as something exterior to the person is retained, even if that something influences intraperson processes. In addition, we focus directly on molecular events themselves. Here the “environment” involved can be that within a DNA segment. We also expand the notion of “biologically based sex differences.” Although many, and perhaps most, important sex differences arise from gonadal and hormonal development, also important are sex differences which are neither gonadal nor hormonal. All these factors affect the internal workings of the individual and intervene in structuring how the social environment might or might not modify sexual behavior. This discourse calls attention to features that are central to the so-called nature–nurture discussion.     

Resident progenitors,not exogenous migratory cells,generate the majority of visceral mesothelium in organogenesis

Historically, analyses of mesothelial differentiation have focused on the heart where a highly migratory population of progenitors originating from a localized “extrinsic” source moves to and over the developing organ. This model long stood alone as the paradigm for generation of this cell type. Here, using chick/quail chimeric grafting and subsequent identification of mesothelial cell populations, we demonstrate that a different mechanism for the generation of mesothelia exists in vertebrate organogenesis. In this newly discovered model, mesothelial progenitors are intrinsic to organs of the developing digestive and respiratory systems. Additionally, we demonstrate that the early heart stands alone in its ability to recruit an entirely exogenous mesothelial cell layer during development. Thus, the newly identified “organ intrinsic” model of mesotheliogenesis appears to predominate while the long-studied cardiac model of mesothelial development may be the outlier.     

When mechanism matters: Bayesian forecasting using models of ecological diffusion

Ecological diffusion is a theory that can be used to understand and forecast spatio‐temporal processes such as dispersal, invasion, and the spread of disease. Hierarchical Bayesian modelling provides a framework to make statistical inference and probabilistic forecasts, using mechanistic ecological models. To illustrate, we show how hierarchical Bayesian models of ecological diffusion can be implemented for large data sets that are distributed densely across space and time. The hierarchical Bayesian approach is used to understand and forecast the growth and geographic spread in the prevalence of chronic wasting disease in white‐tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus). We compare statistical inference and forecasts from our hierarchical Bayesian model to phenomenological regression‐based methods that are commonly used to analyse spatial occurrence data. The mechanistic statistical model based on ecological diffusion led to important ecological insights, obviated a commonly ignored type of collinearity, and was the most accurate method for forecasting.     

Evolution of generous cooperative norms by cultural group selection

Evolution of cooperative norms is studied in a population where individual- and group-level selection are both in operation. Individuals play indirect reciprocity game within their group. Individuals are well informed about the previous actions and reputations, and follow second-order norms. Individuals are norm-followers, and imitate their successful group mates. In contrast to previous models where norms classify actions deterministically, we assume that norms determine only the probabilities of actions, and mutants can differ in these probabilities. The central question is how a selective cooperative norm can emerge in a population where initially only non-cooperative norms were present. It is shown that evolution leads to a cooperative state if generous cooperative strategies are dominant, although the “always defecting” and the “always cooperating”-like strategies remain stably present. The characteristics of these generous cooperative strategies and the presence of always defecting and always cooperating strategies are in concordance with experimental observations.