Four year incidence of respiratory syncytial virus infection in infants and young children referred to emergency departments for lower respiratory tract diseases in Italy: the "Osservatorio VRS" Study (2000-2004)

Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) is a frequent cause of hospital admission in young children and high risk babies such as premature newborns, or babies with underlying cardiac or pulmonary disease, or immunodeficiency. Outbreaks occur most frequently in the cold season in areas with temperate and Mediterranean climates. Aim of the "Osservatorio VRS" Study was to describe the time-related pattern of RSV epidemics in Italy, across four consecutive epidemics, from 2000 to 2004. Nasal specimens for RSV detection were obtained and tested by an immunoenzymatic test. A total of 2110 children were tested for RSV determination, the rate of children with RSV infection was 21%, and that of children hospitalized for RSV disease was 49%. Considering the whole study period, the RSV epidemics started in October-November and ended in May, showing a peak incidence in February, with a median of 28.1% and a maximum of 48.9%. Analysis of monthly distribution of each year of the study showed a biennial trend for an earlier appearance. A different epidemiological pattern of the infection was observed among the three national areas. In conclusion, even though the mechanism governing RSV infection periodicity remains unknown, its awareness in the absence of an RSV surveillance system as in Italy, may be useful for scheduling RSV prophylaxis and for hospital resource management.     

Latitudinal Variations in Seasonal Activity of Influenza and Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV): A Global Comparative Review

Background

There is limited information on influenza and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) seasonal patterns in tropical areas, although there is renewed interest in understanding the seasonal drivers of respiratory viruses.

Methods

We review geographic variations in seasonality of laboratory-confirmed influenza and RSV epidemics in 137 global locations based on literature review and electronic sources. We assessed peak timing and epidemic duration and explored their association with geography and study settings. We fitted time series model to weekly national data available from the WHO influenza surveillance system (FluNet) to further characterize seasonal parameters.

Results

Influenza and RSV activity consistently peaked during winter months in temperate locales, while there was greater diversity in the tropics. Several temperate locations experienced semi-annual influenza activity with peaks occurring in winter and summer. Semi-annual activity was relatively common in tropical areas of Southeast Asia for both viruses. Biennial cycles of RSV activity were identified in Northern Europe. Both viruses exhibited weak latitudinal gradients in the timing of epidemics by hemisphere, with peak timing occurring later in the calendar year with increasing latitude (P<0.03). Time series model applied to influenza data from 85 countries confirmed the presence of latitudinal gradients in timing, duration, seasonal amplitude, and between-year variability of epidemics. Overall, 80% of tropical locations experienced distinct RSV seasons lasting 6 months or less, while the percentage was 50% for influenza.

Conclusion

Our review combining literature and electronic data sources suggests that a large fraction of tropical locations experience focused seasons of respiratory virus activity in individual years. Information on seasonal patterns remains limited in large undersampled regions, included Africa and Central America. Future studies should attempt to link the observed latitudinal gradients in seasonality of viral epidemics with climatic and population factors, and explore regional differences in disease transmission dynamics and attack rates.     

Mathematical modelling of immunity to malaria

A comparison of two epidemiological models of immunity to malaria shows that different characterizations of immunity boosted by exposure to infection generate qualitatively different results. Attempts to control disease by reducing transmission or increasing the recovery rate can produce an increase in prevalence in the compartmental model with discrete epidemiological states. However, the parasite density always decreases in response to disease control in the model with continuous epidemiological variables. Each model accounts for some epidemiological patterns. The increase in prevalence seen in the compartmental model is in accord with observed effects of variation in transmission. Parasite suppression in areas of antimalarial drug use is consistent with the effect of an increased recovery rate in the density model. Future work should combine the two approaches, perhaps by using the compartmental model over the low to moderate range of infection rates and switching to the density model at high infection rates. In any case, the validation of models needs to take account of the usage of antimalarial drugs as well as the intensity of transmission.     

Understanding the transmission dynamics of respiratory syncytial virus using multiple time series and nested models

The nature and role of re-infection and partial immunity are likely to be important determinants of the transmission dynamics of human respiratory syncytial virus (hRSV). We propose a single model structure that captures four possible host responses to infection and subsequent reinfection: partial susceptibility, altered infection duration, reduced infectiousness and temporary immunity (which might be partial). The magnitude of these responses is determined by four homotopy parameters, and by setting some of these parameters to extreme values we generate a set of eight nested, deterministic transmission models. In order to investigate hRSV transmission dynamics, we applied these models to incidence data from eight international locations. Seasonality is included as cyclic variation in transmission. Parameters associated with the natural history of the infection were assumed to be independent of geographic location, while others, such as those associated with seasonality, were assumed location specific. Models incorporating either of the two extreme assumptions for immunity (none or solid and lifelong) were unable to reproduce the observed dynamics. Model fits with either waning or partial immunity to disease or both were visually comparable. The best fitting structure was a lifelong partial immunity to both disease and infection. Observed patterns were reproduced by stochastic simulations using the parameter values estimated from the deterministic models.     

Pulmonary histopathology induced by respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) challenge of formalin-inactivated RSV-immunized BALB/c mice is abrogated by depletion of CD4+ T cells.

In previous studies, it was observed that children immunized with a formalin-inactivated respiratory syncytial virus vaccine (FI-RSV) developed severe pulmonary disease with greater frequency during subsequent natural RSV infection than did controls. During earlier efforts to develop an animal model of this phenomenon, enhanced pulmonary histopathology was observed after intranasal RSV challenge of FI-RSV-immunized cotton rats. Progress in understanding the immunologic basis for these observations has been hampered by the lack of reagents useful in manipulating the immune response of the cotton rat. This problem prompted us to reinvestigate the characteristics of immunity to RSV in the mouse. In the present studies, extensive pulmonary histopathology was observed in FI-RSV-immunized or RSV-infected BALB/c mice upon RSV challenge, and studies to determine the relative contributions of CD4+ or CD8+ T cells to this process were undertaken. Mice previously immunized with FI-RSV or infected with RSV were depleted of CD4+, CD8+, or both T-cell subsets immediately prior to RSV challenge, and the magnitude of inflammatory cell infiltration around bronchioles and pulmonary blood vessels and into alveolar spaces was quantified. The magnitude of infiltration at each anatomic site in previously FI-RSV-immunized or RSV-infected, nondepleted animals was similar, indicating that this is not a relevant model for enhanced disease. However, the effect of T-cell subset depletion on pulmonary histopathology following RSV challenge was very different between the two groups. Depletion of CD4+ T cells completely abrogated pulmonary histopathology in FI-RSV-immunized mice, whereas it had a much smaller effect on mice previously infected with RSV. FI-RSV-immunized or RSV-infected animals depleted of CD8+ T cells had only a modest reduction of pulmonary histopathology. In addition, RSV infection induced high levels of major histocompatibility complex class I-restricted cytotoxic T-cell activity, whereas FI-RSV immunization induced a low level. These data indicate that immunization with FI-RSV induces a cellular immune response different from that induced by RSV infection, which likely played a role in enhanced disease observed in infants and children.     

The immune response to human metapneumovirus is associated with aberrant immunity and impaired virus clearance in BALB/c mice

Human metapneumovirus (HMPV), recently identified in isolates from children hospitalized with acute respiratory tract illness, is associated with clinical diagnosis of pneumonia, asthma exacerbation, and acute bronchiolitis in young children. HMPV has been shown to cocirculate with respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) and mediate clinical disease features similarly to RSV. Little is known regarding the pathophysiology or immune response associated with HMPV infection; thus, animal models are needed to better understand the mechanisms of immunity and disease pathogenesis associated with infection. In this study, we examine features of the innate and adaptive immune response to HMPV infection in a BALB/c mouse model. Primary HMPV infection elicits weak innate and aberrant adaptive immune responses characterized by induction of a Th2-type cytokine response at later stages of infection that coincides with increased interleukin-10 expression and persistent virus replication in the lung. Examination of the cytotoxic T lymphocyte and antibody response to HMPV infection revealed a delayed response, but passive transfer of HMPV-specific antibodies provided considerable protection. These features are consistent with virus persistence and indicate that the immune response to HMPV is unique compared to the immune response to RSV.     

What is the impact of acquired immunity on the transmission of schistosomiasis and the efficacy of current and planned mass drug administration programmes?

Schistosomiasis causes severe morbidity in many countries with endemic infection with the schistosome digenean parasites in Africa and Asia. To control and eliminate the disease resulting from infection, regular mass drug administration (MDA) is used, with a focus on school-aged children (SAC; 5–14 years of age). In some high transmission settings, the World Health Organization (WHO) also recommends the inclusion of at-risk adults in MDA treatment programmes. The question of whether ecology (age-dependant exposure) or immunity (resistance to reinfection), or some combination of both, determines the form of observed convex age-intensity profile is still unresolved, but there is a growing body of evidence that the human hosts acquire some partial level of immunity after a long period of repeated exposure to infection. In the majority of past research modelling schistosome transmission and the impact of MDA programmes, the effect of acquired immunity has not been taken into account. Past work has been based on the assumption that age-related contact rates generate convex horizontal age-intensity profiles. In this paper, we use an individual based stochastic model of transmission and MDA impact to explore the effect of acquired immunity in defined MDA programmes. Compared with scenarios with no immunity, we find that acquired immunity makes the MDA programme less effective with a slower decrease in the prevalence of infection. Therefore, the time to achieve morbidity control and elimination as a public health problem is longer than predicted by models with just age-related exposure and no build-up of immunity. The level of impact depends on the baseline prevalence prior to treatment (the magnitude of the basic reproductive number R₀) and the treatment frequency, among other factors. We find that immunity has a larger impact within moderate to high transmission settings such that it is very unlikely to achieve morbidity and transmission control employing current MDA programmes.     

Pertussis in England and Wales: an investigation of transmission dynamics and control by mass vaccination

The epidemiology of pertussis and its prospects for control by mass vaccination in England and Wales are investigated by analyses of longitudinal records on incidence and vaccine uptake, and horizontal data on age-stratified case reports. Mathematical models of the transmission dynamics of the infection that incorporate loss of natural and vaccine-induced immunity plus variable vaccine efficacy are developed, and their predictions compared with observed trends. Analyses of case reports reveal that the individual force of infection is age dependent, with peak transmission in the 5- to 10-year-old age class. A model incorporating this age dependency, along with partial vaccine efficacy and loss of vaccine-induced immunity, generates predicted patterns that best mirror observed trends since mass vaccination was inaugurated in 1957 in England and Wales. Model projections accurately mirror the failure of mass vaccination to increase the inter-epidemic period of the infection (three years) over that pertaining before control. The analysis suggests that this is due to the impact of partial vaccine efficacy. Projected trends do not accurately reflect the low levels of pertussis incidence reported between epidemics in the periods of high vaccine uptake. This is thought to arise from a combination of factors, including loss of natural and vaccine induced immunity, biases in case reporting (where reporting efficiency is positively associated with the incidence of pertussis), and seasonal variations in transmission. Model predictions suggest that the vaccination of 88% of each birth cohort before the age of 1 year will eliminate bacterial transmission, provided the vaccine confers lifelong protection against infection. If vaccine-induced immunity is significantly less than lifelong (or if vaccination fails to protect all its recipients) repeated cohort immunization is predicted to be necessary to eliminate transmission. Future research needs are discussed, and emphasis is placed on the need for more refined data on vaccine efficacy, the duration of natural and vaccine-induced immunity and the incidence of clinical pertussis and subclinical infections (perhaps by the development of reliable serological tests). Future mathematical models will need especially to incorporate seasonality in transmission.     

Vaccination with recombinant alphavirus or immune-stimulating complex antigen against respiratory syncytial virus

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) causes severe respiratory diseases in infants and young children. Inappropriate immunity to the virus can lead to disease enhancement upon subsequent infection. In this study, we have characterized the antiviral immunity elicited by the recombinant Semliki Forest virus (SFV) encoding the RSV fusion (F) and attachment (G) protein, and compared with that induced by the immune-stimulating complex (ISCOM)-incorporated FG proteins. Antiviral immunity against RSV elicited nasally or parentally by either of the immunogen having divergent profiles could reduce lung RSV titers upon challenge. However, resistance to RSV without disease enhancement was only observed in those vaccinated with SFV recombinants via nasal route. Presence of postvaccination pulmonary IFN-gamma response to the H-2K(d)-restricted T cell epitope (F(85-93); KYKNAVTEL) was found to be associated with absence of enhanced pulmonary disease and goblet cell hyperplasia as well as reduced Th2-cytokine expression. This result demonstrates that the SFV recombinants can result in enhanced clearance of RSV without enhancing the RSV-associated disease, and underlines the importance in priming pulmonary MHC class I-restricted T cells when RSV FG-based vaccines are used.     

Environmental Drivers of the Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Respiratory Syncytial Virus in the United States

Epidemics of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) are known to occur in wintertime in temperate countries including the United States, but there is a limited understanding of the importance of climatic drivers in determining the seasonality of RSV. In the United States, RSV activity is highly spatially structured, with seasonal peaks beginning in Florida in November through December and ending in the upper Midwest in February-March, and prolonged disease activity in the southeastern US. Using data on both age-specific hospitalizations and laboratory reports of RSV in the US, and employing a combination of statistical and mechanistic epidemic modeling, we examined the association between environmental variables and state-specific measures of RSV seasonality. Temperature, vapor pressure, precipitation, and potential evapotranspiration (PET) were significantly associated with the timing of RSV activity across states in univariate exploratory analyses. The amplitude and timing of seasonality in the transmission rate was significantly correlated with seasonal fluctuations in PET, and negatively correlated with mean vapor pressure, minimum temperature, and precipitation. States with low mean vapor pressure and the largest seasonal variation in PET tended to experience biennial patterns of RSV activity, with alternating years of “early-big” and “late-small” epidemics. Our model for the transmission dynamics of RSV was able to replicate these biennial transitions at higher amplitudes of seasonality in the transmission rate. This successfully connects environmental drivers to the epidemic dynamics of RSV; however, it does not fully explain why RSV activity begins in Florida, one of the warmest states, when RSV is a winter-seasonal pathogen. Understanding and predicting the seasonality of RSV is essential in determining the optimal timing of immunoprophylaxis.     

The effect of waning immunity on long-term behaviour of stochastic models for the spread of infection

In stochastic modelling of infectious spread, it is often assumed that infection confers permanent immunity, a susceptible-infective-removed (SIR) model. We show how results concerning long-term (endemic) behaviour may be extended to a susceptible-infective-removed-susceptible (SIRS) model, in which immunity is temporary. Since the full SIRS model with demography is rather intractable, we also consider two simpler models: the susceptible-infective-susceptible (SIS) model with demography, in which there is no immunity; and the SIRS model in a closed population. For each model, we first analyse a deterministic model, then approximate the quasi-stationary distribution (equilibrium distribution conditional upon non-extinction of infection) using a moment closure technique. We look in particular at the effect of the immune period upon infection prevalence and upon time to fade-out of infection. Our main findings are that a shorter average immune period leads to higher infection prevalence in quasi-stationarity, and to longer persistence of infection in the population.     

Forcing Versus Feedback: Epidemic Malaria and Monsoon Rains in Northwest India

Malaria epidemics in regions with seasonal windows of transmission can vary greatly in size from year to year. A central question has been whether these interannual cycles are driven by climate, are instead generated by the intrinsic dynamics of the disease, or result from the resonance of these two mechanisms. This corresponds to the more general inverse problem of identifying the respective roles of external forcings vs. internal feedbacks from time series for nonlinear and noisy systems. We propose here a quantitative approach to formally compare rival hypotheses on climate vs. disease dynamics, or external forcings vs. internal feedbacks, that combines dynamical models with recently developed, computational inference methods. The interannual patterns of epidemic malaria are investigated here for desert regions of northwest India, with extensive epidemiological records for Plasmodium falciparum malaria for the past two decades. We formulate a dynamical model of malaria transmission that explicitly incorporates rainfall, and we rely on recent advances on parameter estimation for nonlinear and stochastic dynamical systems based on sequential Monte Carlo methods. Results show a significant effect of rainfall in the inter-annual variability of epidemic malaria that involves a threshold in the disease response. The model exhibits high prediction skill for yearly cases in the malaria transmission season following the monsoonal rains. Consideration of a more complex model with clinical immunity demonstrates the robustness of the findings and suggests a role of infected individuals that lack clinical symptoms as a reservoir for transmission. Our results indicate that the nonlinear dynamics of the disease itself play a role at the seasonal, but not the interannual, time scales. They illustrate the feasibility of forecasting malaria epidemics in desert and semi-arid regions of India based on climate variability. This approach should be applicable to malaria in other locations, to other infectious diseases, and to other nonlinear systems under forcing.     

Modeling malaria vaccines. I: New uses for old ideas

Starting from a modification of the model of malaria transmission developed for the Garki project, this paper develops a model containing variables relevant to the stimulation of malaria vaccination programs. Modifications include (1) integration of maintenance of immunity dependent on boosting and the possibility of loss of immunity; (2) introduction of a boosting factor distinct from susceptibility to infection; (3) reinterpretation of the epidemiological compartments of positive immunes and nonimmunes in terms of severity of disease rather than just infection; (4) interpretation of the different stage-specific levels of immunity; (5) discrimination between different susceptibilities for the immune and nonimmune classes; (6) reformulation of the expression for acquisition of immunity to be biologically more acceptable. Simulations using the Garki model, Nedelman's modification of it, and our Basic model compare the similarities and differences in the predictive behavior of the models. Simulations using the Basic model reproduce observed periodic fluctuations of malaria attributed to the interplay of transmission-blocking immunity and loss of immunity in the absence of boosting in areas of unstable malaria transmission.     

Impact of vaccination on the infectious diseases epidemiology: example of pertussis

Several vaccines are now routinely used since fifty years in different developed countries. Their principal impact has been to decrease morbidity and mortality of the infectious diseases they are targeting. One disease, smallpox, is eradicated, poliomyelitis will be soon, diphteria is controlled in several countries but pertussis is still endemic although an efficacious vaccine was used. Why? Pertussis is an example of an infection for which the immunity of the population has changed after the introduction of generalized vaccination with killed whole cell pertussis vaccines, from a natural immunity due to infection to different types of vaccine-induced immunity. These different types of immunity have changed the protection against infection, disease and transmission. The impact of the generalized vaccination in a human population has been an important change in the epidemiology of the disease. In fact, a child-to-child transmission observed before the introduction of vaccination is now replaced by an adolescent-adult to infant transmission. The major consequence is an increase in the mortality and morbidity in non vaccinated infants mostly contaminated by their parents. Researches undertaken on the agent of the disease, the bacterium, Bordetella pertussis, conducted to the development of subunits vaccines, efficacious and better tolerated by infants than whole-cell vaccines. Many developed countries decided to change vaccines but also to add vaccine boosters for adolescents and adults in order to stop the transmission of the disease to infants. However, even after 15 years of studies in many countries, pertussis is still underestimated in adults and generalized adult vaccination remains difficult. The new goal now is to give information to medical students and health care workers in general in order to increase adolescent and adult's vaccination coverage.     

Determination of the processes driving the acquisition of immunity to malaria using a mathematical transmission model

Acquisition of partially protective immunity is a dominant feature of the epidemiology of malaria among exposed individuals. The processes that determine the acquisition of immunity to clinical disease and to asymptomatic carriage of malaria parasites are poorly understood, in part because of a lack of validated immunological markers of protection. Using mathematical models, we seek to better understand the processes that determine observed epidemiological patterns. We have developed an age-structured mathematical model of malaria transmission in which acquired immunity can act in three ways (“immunity functions”): reducing the probability of clinical disease, speeding the clearance of parasites, and increasing tolerance to subpatent infections. Each immunity function was allowed to vary in efficacy depending on both age and malaria transmission intensity. The results were compared to age patterns of parasite prevalence and clinical disease in endemic settings in northeastern Tanzania and The Gambia. Two types of immune function were required to reproduce the epidemiological age-prevalence curves seen in the empirical data; a form of clinical immunity that reduces susceptibility to clinical disease and develops with age and exposure (with half-life of the order of five years or more) and a form of anti-parasite immunity which results in more rapid clearance of parasitaemia, is acquired later in life and is longer lasting (half-life of >20 y). The development of anti-parasite immunity better reproduced observed epidemiological patterns if it was dominated by age-dependent physiological processes rather than by the magnitude of exposure (provided some exposure occurs). Tolerance to subpatent infections was not required to explain the empirical data. The model comprising immunity to clinical disease which develops early in life and is exposure-dependent, and anti-parasite immunity which develops later in life and is not dependent on the magnitude of exposure, appears to best reproduce the pattern of parasite prevalence and clinical disease by age in different malaria transmission settings. Understanding the effector mechanisms underlying these two immune functions will assist in the design of transmission-reducing interventions against malaria.     

Age profile of immunity to influenza: effect of original antigenic sin

When multiple infections are possible during an individual’s lifetime, as with influenza, a host’s history of infection and immunity will determine the result of future exposures. In turn, the suite of varying individual infection histories will shape the population level dynamics of the disease. Exploring the consequences of precisely how immunity is acquired using mathematical models has proven challenging though: if n strains have circulated previously, there are 2ⁿ combinations of past infection to consider. However, by using an age-structured mathematical model of a disease with multiple strains, we can examine the population immune profile without explicitly keeping track of all possible infection histories. This framework allows previously unknown consequences of assumptions about immune acquisition to be observed. In particular, we see that ‘original antigenic sin’ can reduce immunity in some age groups: these immune blind spots could be responsible for the unexpectedly high severity of certain past influenza epidemics.     

A rhesus monkey model of respiratory syncytial virus infection

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is a major cause of lower respiratory tract disease in infants and young children worldwide. To date, there is no single animal model that adequately reproduces all human disease states. Here, we have developed a model of experimental infection with human RSV in infant Rhesus macaques. Infected animals demonstrated mild clinical disease including increased respiratory rates, fever and adventitious lung sounds. While more severe disease was not observed, preliminary virological and histopathological findings are promising. It is anticipated that with further optimization, this model will provide a useful system with which to study disease due to RSV infection and evaluate candidate vaccines.     

Allometric scaling and seasonality in the epidemics of wildlife diseases

We present a susceptibles-exposed-infectives (SEI) model to analyze the effects of seasonality on epidemics, mainly of rabies, in a wide range of wildlife species. Model parameters are cast as simple allometric functions of host body size. Via nonlinear analysis, we investigate the dynamical behavior of the disease for different levels of seasonality in the transmission rate and for different values of the pathogen basic reproduction number (R(0)) over a broad range of body sizes. While the unforced SEI model exhibits long-term epizootic cycles only for large values of R(0), the seasonal model exhibits multiyear periodicity for small values of R(0). The oscillation period predicted by the seasonal model is consistent with those observed in the field for different host species. These conclusions are not affected by alternative assumptions for the shape of seasonality or for the parameters that exhibit seasonal variations. However, the introduction of host immunity (which occurs for rabies in some species and is typical of many other wildlife diseases) significantly modifies the epidemic dynamics; in this case, multiyear cycling requires a large level of seasonal forcing. Our analysis suggests that the explicit inclusion of periodic forcing in models of wildlife disease may be crucial to correctly describe the epidemics of wildlife that live in strongly seasonal environments.