HIV-infected children in rural Zambia achieve good immunologic and virologic outcomes two years after initiating antiretroviral therapy

Background

Many HIV-infected children in sub-Saharan Africa reside in rural areas, yet most research on treatment outcomes has been conducted in urban centers. Rural clinics and residents may face unique barriers to care and treatment.

Methods

A prospective cohort study of HIV-infected children was conducted between September 2007 and September 2010 at the rural HIV clinic in Macha, Zambia. HIV-infected children younger than 16 years of age at study enrollment who received antiretroviral therapy (ART) during the study were eligible. Treatment outcomes during the first two years of ART, including mortality, immunologic status, and virologic suppression, were assessed and risk factors for mortality and virologic suppression were evaluated.

Results

A total of 69 children entered the study receiving ART and 198 initiated ART after study enrollment. The cumulative probabilities of death among children starting ART after study enrollment were 9.0% and 14.4% at 6 and 24 months after ART initiation. Younger age, higher viral load, lower CD4+ T-cell percentage and lower weight-for-age z-scores at ART initiation were associated with higher risk of mortality. The mean CD4⁺ T-cell percentage increased from 16.3% at treatment initiation to 29.3% and 35.0% at 6 and 24 months. The proportion of children with undetectable viral load increased to 88.5% and 77.8% at 6 and 24 months. Children with longer travel times (≥5 hours) and those taking nevirapine at ART initiation, as well as children who were non-adherent, were less likely to achieve virologic suppression after 6 months of ART.

Conclusions

HIV-infected children receiving treatment in a rural clinic experienced sustained immunologic and virologic improvements. Children with longer travel times were less likely to achieve virologic suppression, supporting the need for decentralized models of ART delivery.     

Will Adoption of the 2010 WHO ART Guidelines for HIV-Infected TB Patients Increase the Demand for ART Services in India?

Background

In 2010, WHO expanded previously-recommended indications for anti-retroviral treatment to include all HIV-infected TB patients irrespective of CD4 count. India, however, still limits ART to those TB patients with CD4 counts <350/mm³ or with extrapulmonary TB manifestations. We sought to evaluate the additional number of patients that would be initiated on ART if India adopted the current 2010 WHO ART guidelines for HIV-infected TB patients.

Methods

We evaluated all TB patients recorded in treatment registers of the Revised National TB Control Programme in June 2010 in the high-HIV prevalence state of Karnataka, and cross-matched HIV-infected TB patients with ART programme records.

Results

Of 6182 TB patients registered, HIV status was ascertained for 5761(93%) and 710(12%) were HIV-infected. 146(21%) HIV-infected TB patients were on ART prior to TB diagnosis. Of the remaining 564, 497(88%) were assessed for ART eligibility; of these, 436(88%) were eligible for ART according to 2006 WHO ART guidelines. Altogether, 487(69%) HIV-infected TB patients received ART during TB treatment. About 80% started ART within 8 weeks of TB treatment and 95% received an efavirenz based regimen.

Conclusion

In Karnataka, India, about nine out of ten HIV-infected TB patients were eligible for ART according to 2006 WHO ART guidelines. The efficiency of HIV case finding, ART evaluation, and ART initiation was relatively high, with 78% of eligible HIV-infected patients actually initiated on ART, and 80% within 8 weeks of diagnosis. ART could be extended to all HIV-infected TB patients irrespective of CD4 count with relatively little additional burden on the national ART programme.     

HIV status disclosure and retention in care in HIV-infected adolescents on antiretroviral therapy (ART) in West Africa

Objective

We assessed the effect of HIV status disclosure on retention in care from initiation of antiretroviral therapy (ART) among HIV-infected children aged 10 years or more in Cote d''Ivoire, Mali and Sénégal.

Methods

Multi-centre cohort study within five paediatric clinics participating in the IeDEA West Africa collaboration. HIV-infected patients were included in this study if they met the following inclusion criteria: aged 10–21 years while on ART; having initiated ART≥200 days before the closure date of the clinic database; followed ≥15 days from ART initiation in clinics with ≥10 adolescents enrolled. Routine follow-up data were merged with those collected through a standardized ad hoc questionnaire on awareness of HIV status. Probability of retention (no death or loss-to-follow-up) was estimated with Kaplan-Meier method. Cox proportional hazard model with date of ART initiation as origin and a delayed entry at date of 10th birthday was used to identify factors associated with death or loss-to-follow-up.

Results

650 adolescents were available for this analysis. Characteristics at ART initiation were: median age of 10.4 years; median CD4 count of 224 cells/mm³ (47% with severe immunosuppression), 48% CDC stage C/WHO stage 3/4. The median follow-up on ART after the age of 10 was 23.3 months; 187 adolescents (28.8%) knew their HIV status. The overall probability of retention at 36 months after ART initiation was 74.6% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 70.5–79.0) and was higher for those disclosed compared to those not: adjusted hazard ratio for the risk of being death or loss-to-follow-up = 0.23 (95% CI: 0.13–0.39).

Conclusion

About 2/3 of HIV-infected adolescents on ART were not aware of their HIV status in these ART clinics in West Africa but disclosed HIV status improved retention in care. The disclosure process should be thus systematically encouraged and organized in adolescent populations.     

Diminishing availability of publicly funded slots for antiretroviral initiation among HIV-infected ART-eligible patients in Uganda

Background

The impact of flat-line funding in the global scale up of antiretroviral therapy (ART) for HIV-infected patients in Africa has not yet been well described.

Methods

We evaluated ART-eligible patients and patients starting ART at a prototypical scale up ART clinic in Mbarara, Uganda between April 1, 2009 and May 14, 2010 where four stakeholders sponsor treatment – two PEPFAR implementing organizations, the Ugandan Ministry of Health – Global Fund (MOH-GF) and a private foundation named the Family Treatment Fund (FTF). We assessed temporal trends in the number of eligible patients, the number starting ART and tabulated the distribution of the stakeholders supporting ART initiation by month and quartile of time during this interval. We used survival analyses to assess changes in the rate of ART initiation over calendar time.

Findings

A total of 1309 patients who were eligible for ART made visits over the 14 month period of the study and of these 819 started ART. The median number of ART eligible patients each month was 88 (IQR: 74 to 115). By quartile of calendar time, PEPFAR and MOH sponsored 290, 192, 180, and 49 ART initiations whereas the FTF started 1, 2, 1 and 104 patients respectively. By May of 2010 (the last calendar month of observation) FTF sponsored 88% of all ART initiations. Becoming eligible for ART in the 3^rd (HR = 0.58, 95% 0.45–0.74) and 4^th quartiles (HR = 0.49, 95% CI: 0.36–0.65) was associated with delay in ART initiation compared to the first quartile in multivariable analyses.

Interpretation

During a period of flat line funding from multinational donors for ART programs, reductions in the number of ART initiations by public programs (i.e., PEPFAR and MOH-GF) and delays in ART initiation became apparent at the a large prototypical scale-up ART clinic in Uganda.     

Early mortality and AIDS progression despite high initial antiretroviral therapy adherence and virologic suppression in Botswana

Background

Adverse outcomes occurring early after antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation are common in sub-Saharan Africa, despite reports of high levels of ART adherence in this setting. We sought to determine the relationship between very early ART adherence and early adverse outcomes in HIV-infected adults in Botswana.

Methods

This prospective cohort study of 402 ART-naïve, HIV-infected adults initiating ART at a public HIV clinic in Gaborone, Botswana evaluated the relationship between suboptimal early ART adherence and HIV treatment outcomes in the initial months after ART initiation. Early adherence during the interval between initial ART dispensation and first ART refill was calculated using pill counts. In the primary analysis patients not returning to refill and those with adherence <0.95 were considered to have suboptimal early adherence. The primary outcome was death or loss to follow-up during the first 6 months of ART; a secondary composite outcome included the primary outcome plus incident opportunistic illness (OIs) and virologic failure. We also calculated the percent of early adverse outcomes theoretically attributable to suboptimal early adherence using the population attributable risk percent (PAR%).

Results

Suboptimal early adherence was independently associated with loss to follow-up and death (adjusted OR 2.3, 95% CI 1.1–4.8) and with the secondary composite outcome including incident OIs and virologic failure (adjusted OR 2.6, 95% CI 1.4–4.7). However, of those with early adverse outcomes, less than one-third had suboptimal adherence and approximately two-thirds achieved virologic suppression. The PAR% relating suboptimal early adherence and primary and secondary outcomes were 14.7% and 17.7%, respectively.

Conclusions

Suboptimal early adherence was associated with poor outcomes, but most early adverse outcomes occurred in patients with optimal early adherence. Clinical care and research efforts should focus on understanding early adverse outcomes that occur despite optimal adherence.     

Presentation and outcome of tuberculous meningitis in a high HIV prevalence setting

Background

Mycobacterium tuberculosis is a common, devastating cause of meningitis in HIV-infected persons. Due to international rollout programs, access to antiretroviral therapy (ART) is increasing globally. Starting patients with HIV-associated tuberculous meningitis (TBM) on ART during tuberculosis (TB) treatment may increase survival in these patients. We undertook this study to describe causes of meningitis at a secondary-level hospital in a high HIV/TB co-infection setting and to determine predictors of mortality in patients with TBM.

Methods

A retrospective review of cerebrospinal fluid findings and clinical records over a six-month period (March 2009–August 2009). Definite, probable and possible TBM were diagnosed according to published case definitions.

Results

TBM was diagnosed in 120/211 patients (57%) with meningitis. In 106 HIV-infected patients with TBM, six-month all-cause mortality was lower in those who received antiretroviral therapy (ART) during TB treatment; hazard ratio = 0.30 (95% CI = 0.08–0.82). Factors associated with inpatient mortality in HIV-infected patients were 1) low CD4⁺ count at presentation; adjusted odds ratio (AOR) = 1.4 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.03–1.96) per 50 cells/µL drop in CD4⁺ count and, 2) higher British Medical Research Council TBM disease grade (2 or 3 versus 1); AOR = 4.8 (95% CI = 1.45–15.87).

Interpretation

Starting ART prior to or during TB treatment may be associated with lower mortality in patients with HIV-associated TBM. Advanced HIV and worse stage of TBM disease predict in-hospital mortality in patients presenting with TBM.     

Adjusting mortality for loss to follow-up: analysis of five ART programmes in sub-Saharan Africa

Background

Evaluation of antiretroviral treatment (ART) programmes in sub-Saharan Africa is difficult because many patients are lost to follow-up. Outcomes in these patients are generally unknown but studies tracing patients have shown mortality to be high. We adjusted programme-level mortality in the first year of antiretroviral treatment (ART) for excess mortality in patients lost to follow-up.

Methods and Findings

Treatment-naïve patients starting combination ART in five programmes in Côte d''Ivoire, Kenya, Malawi and South Africa were eligible. Patients whose last visit was at least nine months before the closure of the database were considered lost to follow-up. We filled missing survival times in these patients by multiple imputation, using estimates of mortality from studies that traced patients lost to follow-up. Data were analyzed using Weibull models, adjusting for age, sex, ART regimen, CD4 cell count, clinical stage and treatment programme. A total of 15,915 HIV-infected patients (median CD4 cell count 110 cells/µL, median age 35 years, 68% female) were included; 1,001 (6.3%) were known to have died and 1,285 (14.3%) were lost to follow-up in the first year of ART. Crude estimates of mortality at one year ranged from 5.7% (95% CI 4.9–6.5%) to 10.9% (9.6–12.4%) across the five programmes. Estimated mortality hazard ratios comparing patients lost to follow-up with those remaining in care ranged from 6 to 23. Adjusted estimates based on these hazard ratios ranged from 10.2% (8.9–11.6%) to 16.9% (15.0–19.1%), with relative increases in mortality ranging from 27% to 73% across programmes.

Conclusions

Naïve survival analysis ignoring excess mortality in patients lost to follow-up may greatly underestimate overall mortality, and bias ART programme evaluations. Adjusted mortality estimates can be obtained based on excess mortality rates in patients lost to follow-up.     

Association of age with mortality and virological and immunological response to antiretroviral therapy in rural South African adults

Objective

To assess whether treatment outcomes vary with age for adults receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART) in a large rural HIV treatment cohort.

Design

Retrospective cohort analysis using data from a public HIV Treatment & Care Programme.

Methods

Adults initiating ART 1^st August 2004 - 31^st October 2009 were stratified by age at initiation: young adults (16–24 years) mid-age adults (25–49 years) and older (≥50 years) adults. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis was used to estimate mortality rates and age and person-time stratified Cox regression to determine factors associated with mortality. Changes in CD4 cell counts were quantified using a piecewise linear model based on follow-up CD4 cell counts measured at six-monthly time points.

Results

8846 adults were included, 808 (9.1%) young adults; 7119 (80.5%) mid-age adults and 919 (10.4%) older adults, with 997 deaths over 14,778 person-years of follow-up. Adjusting for baseline characteristics, older adults had 32% excess mortality (p = 0.004) compared to those aged 25–49 years. Overall mortality rates (MR) per 100 person-years were 6.18 (95% CI 4.90–7.78); 6.55 (95% CI 6.11–7.02) and 8.69 (95% CI 7.34–10.28) for young, mid-age and older adults respectively. In the first year on ART, for older compared to both young and mid-aged adults, MR per 100 person-years were significantly higher; 0–3 months (MR: 27.1 vs 17.17 and 21.36) and 3–12 months (MR: 9.5 vs 4.02 and 6.02) respectively. CD4 count reconstitution was lower, despite better virological response in the older adults. There were no significant differences in MR after 1year of ART. Baseline markers of advanced disease were independently associated with very early mortality (0–3 months) whilst immunological and virological responses were associated with mortality after 12months.

Conclusions

Early ART initiation and improving clinical care of older adults are required to reduce high early mortality and enhance immunologic recovery, particularly in the initial phases of ART.     

Risk factors associated with increased mortality among HIV infected children initiating antiretroviral therapy (ART) in South Africa

Objective

To identify demographic and clinical risk factors associated with mortality after initiation of antiretroviral therapy (ART) in a cohort of human immunodeficiency (HIV) infected children in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa.

Methods

We performed a retrospective cohort study of 537 children initiating antiretroviral therapy at McCord Hospital in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. Data were extracted from electronic medical records and risk factors associated with mortality were assessed using Cox regression analysis.

Results

Overall there were 47 deaths from the cohort of 537 children initiating ART with over 991 child-years of follow-up (median 22 months on ART), yielding a mortality rate of 4.7 deaths per 100 child years on ART. Univariate analysis indicated that mortality was significantly associated with lower weight-for-age Z-score (p<0.0001), chronic diarrhea (p = 0.0002), lower hemoglobin (p = 0.002), age <3 years (p = 0.003), and CD4% <10% (p = 0.005). The final multivariable Cox proportional hazards mortality model found age less than 3 years (p = 0.004), CD4 <10% (p = 0.01), chronic diarrhea (p = 0.03), weight-for-age Z-score (<0.0001) and female gender as a covariate varying with time (p = 0.03) all significantly associated with mortality.

Conclusion

In addition to recognized risk factors such as young age and advanced immunosuppression, we found female gender to be significantly associated with mortality in this pediatric ART cohort. Future studies are needed to determine whether intrinsic biologic differences or socio-cultural factors place female children with HIV at increased risk of death following initiation of ART.     

Gender difference in 2-year mortality and immunological response to ART in an HIV-infected Chinese population, 2006-2008

Background

Since it was initiated in 2002, the China Free Antiretroviral Treatment (ART) Program has been progressing from an emergency response to a standardized treatment and care system. As of December 31, 2009, a total of 81,880 patients in 31 provinces, autonomous regions, and special municipalities received free ART. Gender differences, however, in mortality and immunological response to ART in this cohort have never been described.

Objective

To understand whether women and men who enrolled in the China National Free ART Program responded equally well to the treatment.

Methods

A retrospective analysis of the national free ART databases from June 2006–December 2008 was performed. HIV-infected subjects who were 18 years or older, ART naïve at baseline, and on a 3TC regimen enrolled in the program from June 1 to December 31, 2006, were included in this study, then followed up to 2 years.

Results

Among 3457 enrolled subjects who met the inclusion criteria, 59.2% were male and 40.8% female. The majority of the subjects were 19–44 years old (77%) and married (72%). Over the full 24 months of follow-up, the mortality rate was 19.0% in males and 11.4% in females (p = 0.0014). Males on therapy for 3–24 months were more likely to die than females (HR = 1.46, 95% CI: 1.04–2.06, p = 0.0307) after adjusting for baseline characteristics. Compared to men, women had higher CD4+ counts over time after initiating ART (p<0.0001).

Conclusions

Our study showed that women had an overall lower mortality and higher CD4+ counts than men in response to ART treatment, which may be attributed to adherence, biological factors, social, cultural and economic reasons. Further study is needed to explore these factors that might contribute to the gender differences in mortality and immunological response to ART.     

Antiretroviral outcomes in South African prisoners: a retrospective cohort analysis

Background and Methods

Little is known about antiretroviral therapy (ART) outcomes in prisoners in Africa. We conducted a retrospective review of outcomes of a large cohort of prisoners referred to a public sector, urban HIV clinic. The review included baseline characteristics, sequential CD4 cell counts and viral load results, complications and co-morbidities, mortality and loss to follow-up up to 96 weeks on ART.

Findings

148 inmates (133 male) initiated on ART were included in the study. By week 96 on ART, 73% of all inmates enrolled in the study and 92% of those still accessing care had an undetectable viral load (<400copies/ml). The median CD4 cell count increased from 122 cells/mm³ at baseline to 356 cells/mm³ by 96 weeks. By study end, 96 (65%) inmates had ever received tuberculosis (TB) therapy with 63 (43%) receiving therapy during the study: 28% had a history of TB prior to ART initiation, 33% were on TB therapy at ART initiation and 22% developed TB whilst on ART. Nine (6%) inmates died, 7 in the second year on ART. Loss to follow-up (LTF) was common: 14 (9%) patients were LTF whilst still incarcerated, 11 (7%) were LTF post-release and 9 (6%) whose movements could not be traced. 16 (11%) inmates had inter-correctional facility transfers and 34 (23%) were released of whom only 23 (68%) returned to the ART clinic for ongoing follow-up.

Conclusions

Inmates responded well to ART, despite a high frequency of TB/HIV co-infection. Attention should be directed towards ensuring eligible prisoners access ART programs promptly and that inter-facility transfers and release procedures facilitate continuity of care. Institutional TB control measures should remain a priority.     

Combining qualitative and quantitative evidence to determine factors leading to late presentation for antiretroviral therapy in Malawi

Background

Treatment seeking delays among people living with HIV have adverse consequences for outcome. Gender differences in treatment outcomes have been observed in sub-Saharan Africa.

Objective

To better understand antiretroviral treatment (ART) seeking behaviour in HIV-infected adults in rural Malawi.

Methods

Qualitative interviews with male and female participants in an ART cohort study at a treatment site in rural northern Malawi triangulated with analysis of baseline clinical and demographic data for 365 individuals attending sequentially for ART screening between January 2008 and September 2009.

Results

43% of the cohort presented with late stage HIV disease classified as WHO stage 3/4. Respondents reported that women''s frequency of testing, health awareness and commitment to children led to earlier ART uptake and that men''s commitment to wider social networks of influence, masculine ideals of strength, and success with sexual and marital partners led them to refuse treatment until they were sick. Quantitative analysis of the screening cohort provided supporting evidence for these expressed views. Overall, male gender (adjusted OR 2.3, 95% CI1.3–3.9) and never being married (adjusted OR 4.1, 95% CI1.5–11.5) were risk factors for late presentation, whereas having ≥3 dependent children was associated with earlier presentation (adjusted OR 0.31, 95% CI0.15–0.63),compared to those with no dependent children.

Conclusion

Gender-specific barriers and facilitators operate throughout the whole process of seeking care. Further efforts to enrol men into care earlier should focus on the masculine characteristics that they value, and the risks to these of severe health decline. Our results emphasise the value of exploring as well as identifying behavioural correlates of late presentation.     

Retention in a NGO supported antiretroviral program in the Democratic Republic of Congo

Background

Retention of patients in ART care is a major challenge in sub-Saharan programs. Retention is also one of the key indicators to evaluate the success of ART programs.

Methods and Findings

A retrospective review of 1500 randomly selected medical charts of adult ART patients from a local non-governmental (NGO) supported ART program in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). Retention was defined as any visit to the clinic in the 4 months prior to the abstraction date. Retention over time and across different sites was described. The relationship between patient characteristics and retention rates at 1 year was also examined. 1450 patients were included in the analysis. The overall retention rates were 81.4% (95% CI: 79.3–83.4), 75.2% (95% CI: 72.8–77.3), 65.0% (95% CI: 62.3–67.6) and 57.2% (95% CI: 54.0–60.3) at 6 months, 1 year, 2 years and 3 years respectively. The retention rates between sites varied between 62.1% and 90.6% at 6 months and between 55.5% and 86.2% at 1 year. During multivariable analysis weight below 50 kg (aHR: 1.33, 95%CI: 1.05–1.69), higher WHO stage at initiation (aHR: 1.22, 95%CI 0.85–1.76 for stage 3 and aHR: 2.98, 95%CI: 1.93–4.59 for stage 4), and male sex (aHR: 1.32, 95%CI: 1.05–1.65) remained as significant risk factors for attrition during the first year after ART initiation. Other independent risk factors were year of initiation (aHR: 1.73, 95%CI: 1.26–2.38 for the year 2007 and aHR: 3.06, 95%CI: 2.26–4.14 for the period 2008–2009), and site.

Conclusions

Retention is a major problem in DRC, while coverage of patients on ART is still very low. With the flattening of funding for HIV care and treatment in sub-Saharan Africa, and with decreasing funding worldwide, maximizing retention during the much needed scaling-up will even be more important.     

High incidence of unplanned pregnancy after antiretroviral therapy initiation: findings from a prospective cohort study in South Africa

Background

Increased fertility rates in HIV-infected women receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART) have been attributed to improved immunological function; it is unknown to what extent the rise in pregnancy rates is due to unintended pregnancies.

Methods

Non-pregnant women ages 18–35 from four public-sector ART clinics in Johannesburg, South Africa, were enrolled into a prospective cohort and followed from August 2009–March 2011. Fertility intentions, contraception and pregnancy status were measured longitudinally at participants'' routine ART clinic visits.

Findings

Of the 850 women enrolled, 822 (97%) had at least one follow-up visit and contributed 745.2 person-years (PY) at-risk for incident pregnancy. Overall, 170 pregnancies were detected in 161 women (incidence rate [IR]: 21.6/100 PY [95% confidence interval (CI): 18.5–25.2]). Of the 170 pregnancies, 105 (62%) were unplanned. Unmet need for contraception was 50% higher in women initiating ART in the past year as compared to women on ART>1 year (prevalence ratio 1.5 [95% CI: 1.1–2.0]); by two years post-ART initiation, nearly one quarter of women had at least one unplanned pregnancy. Cumulative incidence of pregnancy was equally high among recent ART initiators and ART experienced participants: 23.9% [95% CI: 16.4–34.1], 15.9% [12.0–20.8], and 21.0% [16.8–26.1] for women on ART 0–1 yr, >1 yr–2 yrs, and >2 yrs respectively (log-rank, p = 0.54). Eight hormonal contraceptive failures were detected [IR: 4.4 [95% CI: 2.2–8.9], 7/8 among women using injectable methods. Overall 47% (80/170) of pregnancies were not carried to term.

Conclusions

Rates of unintended pregnancies among women on ART are high, including women recently initiating ART with lower CD4 counts and higher viral loads. A substantial burden of pregnancy loss was observed. Integration of contraceptive services and counselling into ART care is necessary to reduce maternal and child health risks related to mistimed and unwanted pregnancies. Further research into injectable contraceptive failures on ART is warranted.     

Population-level reduction in adult mortality after extension of free anti-retroviral therapy provision into rural areas in northern Malawi

Background

Four studies from sub-Saharan Africa have found a substantial population-level effect of ART provision on adult mortality. It is important to see if the impact changes with time since the start of treatment scale-up, and as treatment moves to smaller clinics.

Methods and Findings

During 2002-4 a demographic surveillance site (DSS) was established in Karonga district, northern Malawi. Information on births and deaths is collected monthly, with verbal autopsies conducted for all deaths; migrations are updated annually. We analysed mortality trends by comparing three time periods: pre-ART roll-out in the district (August 2002–June 2005), ART period 1 (July 2005–September 2006) when ART was available only in a town 70 km away, and ART period 2 (October 2006–September 2008), when ART was available at a clinic within the DSS area. HIV prevalence and ART uptake were estimated from a sero-survey conducted in 2007/2008. The all-cause mortality rate among 15–59 year olds was 10.2 per 1000 person-years in the pre-ART period (288 deaths/28285 person-years). It fell by 16% in ART period 1 and by 32% in ART period 2 (95% CI 18%–43%), compared with the pre-ART period. The AIDS mortality rate fell from 6.4 to 4.6 to 2.7 per 1000 person-years in the pre-ART period, period 1 and period 2 respectively (rate ratio for period 2 = 0.43, 95% CI 0.33–0.56). There was little change in non-AIDS mortality. Treatment coverage among individuals eligible to start ART was around 70% in 2008.

Conclusions

ART can have a dramatic effect on mortality in a resource-constrained setting in Africa, at least in the early years of treatment provision. Our findings support the decentralised delivery of ART from peripheral health centres with unsophisticated facilities. Continued funding to maintain and further scale-up treatment provision will bring large benefits in terms of saving lives.     

Comparison of methods to correct survival estimates and survival regression analysis on a large HIV African cohort

Objective

The evaluation of HIV treatment programs is generally based on an estimation of survival among patients receiving antiretroviral treatment (ART). In large HIV programs, loss to follow-up (LFU) rates remain high despite active patient tracing, which is likely to bias survival estimates and survival regression analyses.

Methods

We compared uncorrected survival estimates derived from routine program data with estimates obtained by applying six correction methods that use updated outcome data by a field survey targeting LFU patients in a rural HIV program in Malawi. These methods were based on double-sampling and differed according to the weights given to survival estimates in LFU and non-LFU subpopulations. We then proposed a correction of the survival regression analysis.

Results

Among 6,727 HIV-infected adults receiving ART, 9% were LFU after one year. The uncorrected survival estimates from routine data were 91% in women and 84% in men. According to increasing sophistication of the correction methods, the corrected survival estimates ranged from 89% to 85% in women and 82% to 77% in men. The estimates derived from uncorrected regression analyses were highly biased for initial tuberculosis mortality ratios (RR; 95% CI: 1.07; 0.76–1.50 vs. 2.06 to 2.28 with different correction weights), Kaposi sarcoma diagnosis (2.11; 1.61–2.76 vs. 2.64 to 3.9), and year of ART initiation (1.40; 1.17–1.66 vs. 1.29 to 1.34).

Conclusions

In HIV programs with high LFU rates, the use of correction methods based on non-exhaustive double-sampling data are necessary to minimise the bias in survival estimates and survival regressions.     

Cross-sectional analysis of late HAART initiation in Latin America and the Caribbean: late testers and late presenters

Background

Starting HAART in a very advanced stage of disease is assumed to be the most prevalent form of initiation in HIV-infected subjects in developing countries. Data from Latin America and the Caribbean is still lacking. Our main objective was to determine the frequency, risk factors and trends in time for being late HAART initiator (LHI) in this region.

Methodology

Cross-sectional analysis from 9817 HIV-infected treatment-naïve patients initiating HAART at 6 sites (Argentina, Chile, Haiti, Honduras, Peru and Mexico) from October 1999 to July 2010. LHI had CD4⁺ count ≤200cells/mm³ prior to HAART. Late testers (LT) were those LHI who initiated HAART within 6 months of HIV diagnosis. Late presenters (LP) initiated after 6 months of diagnosis. Prevalence, risk factors and trends over time were analyzed.

Principal Findings

Among subjects starting HAART (n = 9817) who had baseline CD4⁺ available (n = 8515), 76% were LHI: Argentina (56%[95%CI:52–59]), Chile (80%[95%CI:77–82]), Haiti (76%[95%CI:74–77]), Honduras (91%[95%CI:87–94]), Mexico (79%[95%CI:75–83]), Peru (86%[95%CI:84–88]). The proportion of LHI statistically changed over time (except in Honduras) (p≤0.02; Honduras p = 0.7), with a tendency towards lower rates in recent years. Males had increased risk of LHI in Chile, Haiti, Peru, and in the combined site analyses (CSA). Older patients were more likely LHI in Argentina and Peru (OR 1.21 per +10-year of age, 95%CI:1.02–1.45; OR 1.20, 95%CI:1.02–1.43; respectively), but not in CSA (OR 1.07, 95%CI:0.94–1.21). Higher education was associated with decreased risk for LHI in Chile (OR 0.92 per +1-year of education, 95%CI:0.87–0.98) (similar trends in Mexico, Peru, and CSA). LHI with date of HIV-diagnosis available, 55% were LT and 45% LP.

Conclusion

LHI was highly prevalent in CCASAnet sites, mostly due to LT; the main risk factors associated were being male and older age. Earlier HIV-diagnosis and earlier treatment initiation are needed to maximize benefits from HAART in the region.     

Cytomegalovirus viremia as a risk factor for mortality prior to antiretroviral therapy among HIV-infected gold miners in South Africa

Background

Cytomegalovirus (CMV) viremia has been shown to be an independent risk factor for increased mortality among HIV-infected individuals in the developing world. While CMV infection is nearly ubiquitous in resource-poor settings, few data are available on the role of subclinical CMV reactivation on HIV.

Methods

Using a cohort of mineworkers with stored plasma samples, we investigated the association between CMV DNA concentration and mortality prior to antiretroviral therapy availability.

Results

Among 1341 individuals (median CD4 count 345 cells/µl, 70% WHO stage 1 or 2, median follow-up 0.9 years), 70 (5.2%) had CMV viremia at baseline; 71 deaths occurred. In univariable analysis CMV viremia at baseline was associated with a three-fold increase in mortality (hazard ratio [HR] 3.37; 95% confidence intervals [CI] 1.60, 7.10). After adjustment for CD4 count, WHO stage and HIV viral load (N = 429 with complete data), the association was attenuated (HR 2.27; 95%CI 0.88, 5.83). Mortality increased with higher CMV viremia (≥1,000 copies/ml vs. no viremia, adjusted HR 3.65, 95%CI: 1.29, 10.41). Results were similar using time-updated CMV viremia.

Conclusions

High copy number, subclinical CMV viremia was an independent risk factor for mortality among male HIV-infected adults in South Africa with relatively early HIV disease. Studies to determine whether anti-CMV therapy to mitigate high copy number viremia would increase lifespan are warranted.     

Interferon-gamma release assays for the diagnosis of active tuberculosis in HIV-infected patients: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Background

Interferon-gamma release assays (IGRAs) have provided a new method for the diagnosis of Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection. However, the role of IGRAs for the diagnosis of active tuberculosis (TB), especially in HIV-infected patients remains unclear.

Methods

We searched PubMed, EMBASE and Cochrane databases to identify studies published in January 2001–July 2011 that evaluated the evidence of using QuantiFERON-TB Gold in-tube (QFT-GIT) and T-SPOT.TB (T-SPOT) on blood for the diagnosis of active TB in HIV-infected patients.

Results

The search identified 16 eligible studies that included 2801 HIV-infected individuals (637 culture confirmed TB cases). The pooled sensitivity for the diagnosis of active TB was 76.7% (95%CI, 71.6–80.5%) and 77.4% (95%CI, 71.4–82.6%) for QFT-GIT and T-SPOT, respectively, while the specificity was 76.1% (95%CI, 74.0–78.0%) and 63.1% (95%CI, 57.6–68.3%) after excluding the indeterminate results. Studies conducted in low/middle income countries showed slightly lower sensitivity and specificity when compared to that in high-income countries. The proportion of indeterminate results was as high as 10% (95%CI, 8.8–11.3%) and 13.2% (95%CI, 10.6–16.0%) for QFT-GIT and T-SPOT, respectively.

Conclusion

IGRAs in their current formulations have limited accuracy in diagnosing active TB in HIV-infected patients, and should not be used alone to rule out or rule in active TB cases in HIV-infected patients. Further modification is needed to improve their accuracy.