Interaction matters: Bottom-up driver interdependencies alter the projected response of phytoplankton communities to climate change

Phytoplankton growth is controlled by multiple environmental drivers, which are all modified by climate change. While numerous experimental studies identify interactive effects between drivers, large-scale ocean biogeochemistry models mostly account for growth responses to each driver separately and leave the results of these experimental multiple-driver studies largely unused. Here, we amend phytoplankton growth functions in a biogeochemical model by dual-driver interactions (CO₂ and temperature, CO₂ and light), based on data of a published meta-analysis on multiple-driver laboratory experiments. The effect of this parametrization on phytoplankton biomass and community composition is tested using present-day and future high-emission (SSP5-8.5) climate forcing. While the projected decrease in future total global phytoplankton biomass in simulations with driver interactions is similar to that in control simulations without driver interactions (5%–6%), interactive driver effects are group-specific. Globally, diatom biomass decreases more with interactive effects compared with the control simulation (−8.1% with interactions vs. no change without interactions). Small-phytoplankton biomass, by contrast, decreases less with on-going climate change when the model accounts for driver interactions (−5.0% vs. −9.0%). The response of global coccolithophore biomass to future climate conditions is even reversed when interactions are considered (+33.2% instead of −10.8%). Regionally, the largest difference in the future phytoplankton community composition between the simulations with and without driver interactions is detected in the Southern Ocean, where diatom biomass decreases (−7.5%) instead of increases (+14.5%), raising the share of small phytoplankton and coccolithophores of total phytoplankton biomass. Hence, interactive effects impact the phytoplankton community structure and related biogeochemical fluxes in a future ocean. Our approach is a first step to integrate the mechanistic understanding of interacting driver effects on phytoplankton growth gained by numerous laboratory experiments into a global ocean biogeochemistry model, aiming toward more realistic future projections of phytoplankton biomass and community composition.     

Estuary–ocean connectivity: fast physics,slow biology

Estuaries are connected to both land and ocean so their physical, chemical, and biological dynamics are influenced by climate patterns over watersheds and ocean basins. We explored climate‐driven oceanic variability as a source of estuarine variability by comparing monthly time series of temperature and chlorophyll‐a inside San Francisco Bay with those in adjacent shelf waters of the California Current System (CCS) that are strongly responsive to wind‐driven upwelling. Monthly temperature fluctuations inside and outside the Bay were synchronous, but their correlations weakened with distance from the ocean. These results illustrate how variability of coastal water temperature (and associated properties such as nitrate and oxygen) propagates into estuaries through fast water exchanges that dissipate along the estuary. Unexpectedly, there was no correlation between monthly chlorophyll‐a variability inside and outside the Bay. However, at the annual scale Bay chlorophyll‐a was significantly correlated with the Spring Transition Index (STI) that sets biological production supporting fish recruitment in the CCS. Wind forcing of the CCS shifted in the late 1990s when the STI advanced 40 days. This shift was followed, with lags of 1–3 years, by 3‐ to 19‐fold increased abundances of five ocean‐produced demersal fish and crustaceans and 2.5‐fold increase of summer chlorophyll‐a in the Bay. These changes reflect a slow biological process of estuary–ocean connectivity operating through the immigration of fish and crustaceans that prey on bivalves, reduce their grazing pressure, and allow phytoplankton biomass to build. We identified clear signals of climate‐mediated oceanic variability in this estuary and discovered that the response patterns vary with the process of connectivity and the timescale of ocean variability. This result has important implications for managing nutrient inputs to estuaries connected to upwelling systems, and for assessing their responses to changing patterns of upwelling timing and intensity as the planet continues to warm.     

Individual variation in growth and physiology of symbionts in response to temperature

In many cases, understanding species’ responses to climate change requires understanding variation among individuals in response to such change. For species with strong symbiotic relationships, such as many coral reef species, genetic variation in symbiont responses to temperature may affect the response to increased ocean temperatures. To assess variation among symbiont genotypes, we examined the population dynamics and physiological responses of genotypes of Breviolum antillogorgium in response to increased temperature. We found broad temperature tolerance across genotypes, with all genotypes showing positive growth at 26, 30, and 32°C. Genotypes differed in the magnitude of the response of growth rate and carrying capacity to increasing temperature, suggesting that natural selection could favor different genotypes at different temperatures. However, the historical temperature at which genotypes were reared (26 or 30°C) was not a good predictor of contemporary temperature response. We found increased photosynthetic rates and decreased respiration rates with increasing contemporary temperature, and differences in physiology among genotypes, but found no significant differences in the response of these traits to temperature among genotypes. In species with such broad thermal tolerance, selection experiments on symbionts outside of the host may not yield results sufficient for evolutionary rescue from climate change.     

Temperature-Correlated Changes in Phytoplankton Community Structure Are Restricted to Polar Waters

Globally distributed observations of size-fractionated chlorophyll a and temperature were used to incorporate temperature dependence into an existing semi-empirical model of phytoplankton community size structure. The additional temperature-dependent term significantly increased the model’s ability to both reproduce and predict observations of chlorophyll a size-fractionation at temperatures below 2°C. The most notable improvements were in the smallest (picoplankton) size-class, for which overall model fit was more than doubled, and predictive skill was increased by approximately 40%. The model was subsequently applied to generate global maps for three phytoplankton size classes, on the basis of satellite-derived estimates of surface chlorophyll a and sea surface temperature. Polar waters were associated with marked decline in the chlorophyll a biomass of the smallest cells, relative to lower latitude waters of equivalent total chlorophyll a. In the same regions a complementary increase was seen in the chlorophyll a biomass of larger size classes. These findings suggest that a warming and stratifying ocean will see a poleward expansion of the habitat range of the smallest phytoplankton, with the possible displacement of some larger groups that currently dominate. There was no evidence of a strong temperature dependence in tropical or sub-tropical regions, suggesting that future direct temperature effects on community structure at lower latitudes may be small.     

Biomass changes and trophic amplification of plankton in a warmer ocean

Ocean warming can modify the ecophysiology and distribution of marine organisms, and relationships between species, with nonlinear interactions between ecosystem components potentially resulting in trophic amplification. Trophic amplification (or attenuation) describe the propagation of a hydroclimatic signal up the food web, causing magnification (or depression) of biomass values along one or more trophic pathways. We have employed 3‐D coupled physical‐biogeochemical models to explore ecosystem responses to climate change with a focus on trophic amplification. The response of phytoplankton and zooplankton to global climate‐change projections, carried out with the IPSL Earth System Model by the end of the century, is analysed at global and regional basis, including European seas (NE Atlantic, Barents Sea, Baltic Sea, Black Sea, Bay of Biscay, Adriatic Sea, Aegean Sea) and the Eastern Boundary Upwelling System (Benguela). Results indicate that globally and in Atlantic Margin and North Sea, increased ocean stratification causes primary production and zooplankton biomass to decrease in response to a warming climate, whilst in the Barents, Baltic and Black Seas, primary production and zooplankton biomass increase. Projected warming characterized by an increase in sea surface temperature of 2.29 ± 0.05 °C leads to a reduction in zooplankton and phytoplankton biomasses of 11% and 6%, respectively. This suggests negative amplification of climate driven modifications of trophic level biomass through bottom‐up control, leading to a reduced capacity of oceans to regulate climate through the biological carbon pump. Simulations suggest negative amplification is the dominant response across 47% of the ocean surface and prevails in the tropical oceans; whilst positive trophic amplification prevails in the Arctic and Antarctic oceans. Trophic attenuation is projected in temperate seas. Uncertainties in ocean plankton projections, associated to the use of single global and regional models, imply the need for caution when extending these considerations into higher trophic levels.     

Temporal variation overshadows the response of leaf litter microbial communities to simulated global change

Bacteria and fungi drive the decomposition of dead plant biomass (litter), an important step in the terrestrial carbon cycle. Here we investigate the sensitivity of litter microbial communities to simulated global change (drought and nitrogen addition) in a California annual grassland. Using 16S and 28S rDNA amplicon pyrosequencing, we quantify the response of the bacterial and fungal communities to the treatments and compare these results to background, temporal (seasonal and interannual) variability of the communities. We found that the drought and nitrogen treatments both had significant effects on microbial community composition, explaining 2–6% of total compositional variation. However, microbial composition was even more strongly influenced by seasonal and annual variation (explaining 14–39%). The response of microbial composition to drought varied by season, while the effect of the nitrogen addition treatment was constant through time. These compositional responses were similar in magnitude to those seen in microbial enzyme activities and the surrounding plant community, but did not correspond to a consistent effect on leaf litter decomposition rate. Overall, these patterns indicate that, in this ecosystem, temporal variability in the composition of leaf litter microorganisms largely surpasses that expected in a short-term global change experiment. Thus, as for plant communities, future microbial communities will likely be determined by the interplay between rapid, local background variability and slower, global changes.     

Climate‐driven disparities among ecological interactions threaten kelp forest persistence

The combination of ocean warming and acidification brings an uncertain future to kelp forests that occupy the warmest parts of their range. These forests are not only subject to the direct negative effects of ocean climate change, but also to a combination of unknown indirect effects associated with changing ecological landscapes. Here, we used mesocosm experiments to test the direct effects of ocean warming and acidification on kelp biomass and photosynthetic health, as well as climate‐driven disparities in indirect effects involving key consumers (urchins and rock lobsters) and competitors (algal turf). Elevated water temperature directly reduced kelp biomass, while their turf‐forming competitors expanded in response to ocean acidification and declining kelp canopy. Elevated temperatures also increased growth of urchins and, concurrently, the rate at which they thinned kelp canopy. Rock lobsters, which are renowned for keeping urchin populations in check, indirectly intensified negative pressures on kelp by reducing their consumption of urchins in response to elevated temperature. Overall, these results suggest that kelp forests situated towards the low‐latitude margins of their distribution will need to adapt to ocean warming in order to persist in the future. What is less certain is how such adaptation in kelps can occur in the face of intensifying consumptive (via ocean warming) and competitive (via ocean acidification) pressures that affect key ecological interactions associated with their persistence. If such indirect effects counter adaptation to changing climate, they may erode the stability of kelp forests and increase the probability of regime shifts from complex habitat‐forming species to more simple habitats dominated by algal turfs.     

Twenty‐first‐century climate change impacts on marine animal biomass and ecosystem structure across ocean basins

Climate change effects on marine ecosystems include impacts on primary production, ocean temperature, species distributions, and abundance at local to global scales. These changes will significantly alter marine ecosystem structure and function with associated socio‐economic impacts on ecosystem services, marine fisheries, and fishery‐dependent societies. Yet how these changes may play out among ocean basins over the 21st century remains unclear, with most projections coming from single ecosystem models that do not adequately capture the range of model uncertainty. We address this by using six marine ecosystem models within the Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project (Fish‐MIP) to analyze responses of marine animal biomass in all major ocean basins to contrasting climate change scenarios. Under a high emissions scenario (RCP8.5), total marine animal biomass declined by an ensemble mean of 15%–30% (±12%–17%) in the North and South Atlantic and Pacific, and the Indian Ocean by 2100, whereas polar ocean basins experienced a 20%–80% (±35%–200%) increase. Uncertainty and model disagreement were greatest in the Arctic and smallest in the South Pacific Ocean. Projected changes were reduced under a low (RCP2.6) emissions scenario. Under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5, biomass projections were highly correlated with changes in net primary production and negatively correlated with projected sea surface temperature increases across all ocean basins except the polar oceans. Ecosystem structure was projected to shift as animal biomass concentrated in different size‐classes across ocean basins and emissions scenarios. We highlight that climate change mitigation measures could moderate the impacts on marine animal biomass by reducing biomass declines in the Pacific, Atlantic, and Indian Ocean basins. The range of individual model projections emphasizes the importance of using an ensemble approach in assessing uncertainty of future change.     

Effects of Warming, Summer Drought, and CO2 Enrichment on Aboveground Biomass Production, Flowering Phenology, and Community Structure in an Upland Grassland Ecosystem

Future climate scenarios predict simultaneous changes in environmental conditions, but the impacts of multiple climate change drivers on ecosystem structure and function remain unclear. We used a novel experimental approach to examine the responses of an upland grassland ecosystem to the 2080 climate scenario predicted for the study area (3.5°C temperature increase, 20% reduction in summer precipitation, atmospheric CO₂ levels of 600 ppm) over three growing seasons. We also assessed whether patterns of grassland response to a combination of climate change treatments could be forecast by ecosystem responses to single climate change drivers. Effects of climate change on aboveground production showed considerable seasonal and interannual variation; April biomass increased in response to both warming and the simultaneous application of warming, summer drought, and CO₂ enrichment, whereas October biomass responses were either non-significant or negative depending on the year. Negative impacts of summer drought on production were only observed in combination with a below-average rainfall regime, and showed lagged effects on spring biomass. Elevated CO₂ had no significant effect on aboveground biomass during this study. Both warming and the 2080 climate change scenario were associated with a significant advance in flowering time for the dominant grass species studied. However, flowering phenology showed no significant response to either summer drought or elevated CO₂. Species diversity and equitability showed no response to climate change treatments throughout this study. Overall, our data suggest that single-factor warming experiments may provide valuable information for projections of future ecosystem changes in cool temperate grasslands.     

Evolved physiological responses of phytoplankton to their integrated growth environment

Phytoplankton growth and productivity relies on light, multiple nutrients and temperature. These combined factors constitute the 'integrated growth environment'. Since their emergence in the Archaean ocean, phytoplankton have experienced dramatic shifts in their integrated growth environment and, in response, evolved diverse mechanisms to maximize growth by optimizing the allocation of photosynthetic resources (ATP and NADPH) among all cellular processes. Consequently, co-limitation has become an omnipresent condition in the global ocean. Here we focus on evolved phytoplankton populations of the contemporary ocean and the varied energetic pathways they employ to solve the optimization problem of resource supply and demand. Central to this discussion is the allocation of reductant formed through photosynthesis, which we propose has the following three primary fates: carbon fixation, direct use and ATP generation. Investment of reductant among these three sinks is tied to cell cycle events, differentially influenced by specific forms of nutrient stress, and a strong determinant of relationships between light-harvesting (pigment), photosynthetic electron transport and carbon fixation. Global implications of optimization are illustrated by deconvolving trends in the 10-year global satellite chlorophyll record into contributions from biomass and physiology, thereby providing a unique perspective on the dynamic nature of surface phytoplankton populations and their link to climate.     

Responses of biomass allocation across two vegetation types to climate fluctuations in the northern Qinghai–Tibet Plateau

The Qinghai–Tibet Plateau (QTP) is particularly sensitive to global climate change, especially to elevated temperatures, when compared with other ecosystems. However, few studies use long‐term field measurements to explore the interannual variations in plant biomass under climate fluctuations. Here, we examine the interannual variations of plant biomass within two vegetation types (alpine meadow and alpine shrub) during 2008–2017 and their relationships with climate variables. The following results were obtained. The aboveground biomass (AGB) and belowground biomass (BGB) response differently to climate fluctuations, the AGB in KPM was dominated by mean annual precipitation (MAP), whereas the AGB in PFS was controlled by mean annual air temperature (MAT). However, the BGB of both KPM and PFS was only weakly affected by climate variables, suggesting that the BGB in alpine ecosystems may remain as a stable carbon stock even under future global climate change. Furthermore, the AGB in PFS was significantly higher than KPM, while the BGB and R/S in KPM were significantly higher than PFS, reflecting the KPM be more likely to allocate more photosynthates to roots. Interestingly, the proportion of 0–10 cm root biomass increased in KPM and PFS, whereas the other proportions both decreased, reflecting a shift in biomass toward the surface layer. Our results could provide a new sight for the prediction how alpine ecosystem response to future climate change.     

Consistent trophic amplification of marine biomass declines under climate change

The impact of climate change on the marine food web is highly uncertain. Nonetheless, there is growing consensus that global marine primary production will decline in response to future climate change, largely due to increased stratification reducing the supply of nutrients to the upper ocean. Evidence to date suggests a potential amplification of this response throughout the trophic food web, with more dramatic responses at higher trophic levels. Here we show that trophic amplification of marine biomass declines is a consistent feature of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) Earth System Models, across different scenarios of future climate change. Under the business‐as‐usual Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) global mean phytoplankton biomass is projected to decline by 6.1% ± 2.5% over the twenty‐first century, while zooplankton biomass declines by 13.6% ± 3.0%. All models project greater relative declines in zooplankton than phytoplankton, with annual zooplankton biomass anomalies 2.24 ± 1.03 times those of phytoplankton. The low latitude oceans drive the projected trophic amplification of biomass declines, with models exhibiting variable trophic interactions in the mid‐to‐high latitudes and similar relative changes in phytoplankton and zooplankton biomass. Under the assumption that zooplankton biomass is prey limited, an analytical explanation of the trophic amplification that occurs in the low latitudes can be derived from generic plankton differential equations. Using an ocean biogeochemical model, we show that the inclusion of variable C:N:P phytoplankton stoichiometry can substantially increase the trophic amplification of biomass declines in low latitude regions. This additional trophic amplification is driven by enhanced nutrient limitation decreasing phytoplankton N and P content relative to C, hence reducing zooplankton growth efficiency. Given that most current Earth System Models assume that phytoplankton C:N:P stoichiometry is constant, such models are likely to underestimate the extent of negative trophic amplification under projected climate change.     

Predicting tree biomass growth in the temperate–boreal ecotone: Is tree size,age, competition,or climate response most important?

As global temperatures rise, variation in annual climate is also changing, with unknown consequences for forest biomes. Growing forests have the ability to capture atmospheric CO₂ and thereby slow rising CO₂ concentrations. Forests’ ongoing ability to sequester C depends on how tree communities respond to changes in climate variation. Much of what we know about tree and forest response to climate variation comes from tree‐ring records. Yet typical tree‐ring datasets and models do not capture the diversity of climate responses that exist within and among trees and species. We address this issue using a model that estimates individual tree response to climate variables while accounting for variation in individuals’ size, age, competitive status, and spatially structured latent covariates. Our model allows for inference about variance within and among species. We quantify how variables influence aboveground biomass growth of individual trees from a representative sample of 15 northern or southern tree species growing in a transition zone between boreal and temperate biomes. Individual trees varied in their growth response to fluctuating mean annual temperature and summer moisture stress. The variation among individuals within a species was wider than mean differences among species. The effects of mean temperature and summer moisture stress interacted, such that warm years produced positive responses to summer moisture availability and cool years produced negative responses. As climate models project significant increases in annual temperatures, growth of species like Acer saccharum, Quercus rubra, and Picea glauca will vary more in response to summer moisture stress than in the past. The magnitude of biomass growth variation in response to annual climate was 92–95% smaller than responses to tree size and age. This means that measuring or predicting the physical structure of current and future forests could tell us more about future C dynamics than growth responses related to climate change alone.     

Edging along a Warming Coast: A Range Extension for a Common Sandy Beach Crab

Determining the position of range edges is the first step in developing an understanding of the ecological and evolutionary dynamics in play as species’ ranges shift in response to climate change. Here, we study the leading (poleward) range edge of Ocypode cordimanus, a ghost crab that is common along the central to northern east coast of Australia. Our study establishes the poleward range edge of adults of this species to be at Merimbula (36.90°S, 149.93°E), 270 km (along the coast) south of the previous southernmost museum record. We also establish that dispersal of pelagic larvae results in recruitment to beaches 248 km (along the coast; 0.9° of latitude) beyond the adult range edge we have documented here. Although we cannot conclusively demonstrate that the leading range edge for this species has moved polewards in response to climate change, this range edge does fall within a “hotspot” of ocean warming, where surface isotherms are moving southwards along the coast at 20–50 km.decade^-1; coastal air temperatures in the region are also warming. If these patterns persist, future range extensions could be anticipated. On the basis of their ecology, allied with their occupancy of ocean beaches, which are home to taxa that are particularly amenable to climate-change studies, we propose that ghost crabs like O. cordimanus represent ideal model organisms with which to study ecological and evolutionary processes associated with climate change. The fact that “hotspots” of ocean warming on four other continents correspond with poleward range edges of ghost crab species suggests that results of hypothesis tests could be generalized, yielding excellent opportunities to rapidly progress knowledge in this field.     

Temperature,but not pH,compromises sea urchin fertilization and early development under near-future climate change scenarios

Global warming is causing ocean warming and acidification. The distribution of Heliocidaris erythrogramma coincides with the eastern Australia climate change hot spot, where disproportionate warming makes marine biota particularly vulnerable to climate change. In keeping with near-future climate change scenarios, we determined the interactive effects of warming and acidification on fertilization and development of this echinoid. Experimental treatments (20–26°C, pH 7.6–8.2) were tested in all combinations for the ‘business-as-usual’ scenario, with 20°C/pH 8.2 being ambient. Percentage of fertilization was high (>89%) across all treatments. There was no difference in percentage of normal development in any pH treatment. In elevated temperature conditions, +4°C reduced cleavage by 40 per cent and +6°C by a further 20 per cent. Normal gastrulation fell below 4 per cent at +6°C. At 26°C, development was impaired. As the first study of interactive effects of temperature and pH on sea urchin development, we confirm the thermotolerance and pH resilience of fertilization and embryogenesis within predicted climate change scenarios, with negative effects at upper limits of ocean warming. Our findings place single stressor studies in context and emphasize the need for experiments that address ocean warming and acidification concurrently. Although ocean acidification research has focused on impaired calcification, embryos may not reach the skeletogenic stage in a warm ocean.     

127 Climate Variability and Phytoplankton Production in PNW Coast Estuaries

The west coast of North America receives strong forcing from climate modes such as El Niño-Southern Oscillation and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. Estuaries are poised at a sensitive interface because estuarine biota and habitat will be affected by variability in properties and processes associated with the ocean, the watershed, and the local weather. Observations from the Washington coast and Willapa Bay illustrate these three arenas of influence. Variation in ocean upwelling and ocean thermocline depth associated with the 1997–98 El Niño versus the 1999 La Niña affected temperature and nutrient availability in Willapa Bay. Variation in river flow associated with the 2000–01 drought affected estuarine circulation and residence time. And, variation in prevailing wind direction and/or cloudiness was highly correlated with phytoplankton biomass. This situation is responsible for the complexity of understanding climate impacts on estuarine systems. In order to help evaluate which mechanisms, remote oceanic processes or local watershed/estuarine characteristics, most affected Willapa Bay's phytoplankton production, several phytoplankton species were used as indicators of water mass origin and compared with primary productivity data to assess whether phytoplankton blooms were dominated by endemic or imported species. Our analysis resolved that the highest primary production (and the appearance of Pseudo-nitzschia spp.) was associated with oceanic intrusions of phytoplankton biomass into Willapa Bay. This result underscores the dominant role that variation in ocean and climate play in controlling Pacific Northwest estuarine production. However, while the largest blooms were oceanic in origin, numerous medium-sized production events were from either oceanic or estuarine sources, indicating a complex picture.     

Temperature regulation of marine heterotrophic prokaryotes increases latitudinally as a breach between bottom‐up and top‐down controls

Planktonic heterotrophic prokaryotes make up the largest living biomass and process most organic matter in the ocean. Determining when and where the biomass and activity of heterotrophic prokaryotes are controlled by resource availability (bottom‐up), predation and viral lysis (top‐down) or temperature will help in future carbon cycling predictions. We conducted an extensive survey across subtropical and tropical waters of the Atlantic, Indian and Pacific Oceans during the Malaspina 2010 Global Circumnavigation Expedition and assessed indices for these three types of controls at 109 stations (mostly from the surface to 4,000 m depth). Temperature control was approached by the apparent activation energy in eV (ranging from 0.46 to 3.41), bottom‐up control by the slope of the log‐log relationship between biomass and production rate (ranging from ?0.12 to 1.09) and top‐down control by an index that considers the relative abundances of heterotrophic nanoflagellates and viruses (ranging from 0.82 to 4.83). We conclude that temperature becomes dominant (i.e. activation energy >1.5 eV) within a narrow window of intermediate values of bottom‐up (0.3–0.6) and top‐down 0.8–1.2) controls. A pervasive latitudinal pattern of decreasing temperature regulation towards the Equator, regardless of the oceanic basin, suggests that the impact of global warming on marine microbes and their biogeochemical function will be more intense at higher latitudes. Our analysis predicts that 1°C ocean warming will result in increased biomass of heterotrophic prokaryoplankton only in waters with <26°C of mean annual surface temperature.     

Continental‐scale tree‐ring‐based projection of Douglas‐fir growth: Testing the limits of space‐for‐time substitution

A central challenge in global change research is the projection of the future behavior of a system based upon past observations. Tree‐ring data have been used increasingly over the last decade to project tree growth and forest ecosystem vulnerability under future climate conditions. But how can the response of tree growth to past climate variation predict the future, when the future does not look like the past? Space‐for‐time substitution (SFTS) is one way to overcome the problem of extrapolation: the response at a given location in a warmer future is assumed to follow the response at a warmer location today. Here we evaluated an SFTS approach to projecting future growth of Douglas‐fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii), a species that occupies an exceptionally large environmental space in North America. We fit a hierarchical mixed‐effects model to capture ring‐width variability in response to spatial and temporal variation in climate. We found opposing gradients for productivity and climate sensitivity with highest growth rates and weakest response to interannual climate variation in the mesic coastal part of Douglas‐fir's range; narrower rings and stronger climate sensitivity occurred across the semi‐arid interior. Ring‐width response to spatial versus temporal temperature variation was opposite in sign, suggesting that spatial variation in productivity, caused by local adaptation and other slow processes, cannot be used to anticipate changes in productivity caused by rapid climate change. We thus substituted only climate sensitivities when projecting future tree growth. Growth declines were projected across much of Douglas‐fir's distribution, with largest relative decreases in the semiarid U.S. Interior West and smallest in the mesic Pacific Northwest. We further highlight the strengths of mixed‐effects modeling for reviving a conceptual cornerstone of dendroecology, Cook's 1987 aggregate growth model, and the great potential to use tree‐ring networks and results as a calibration target for next‐generation vegetation models.     

Individual Variability in Reproductive Success Determines Winners and Losers under Ocean Acidification: A Case Study with Sea Urchins

Background

Climate change will lead to intense selection on many organisms, particularly during susceptible early life stages. To date, most studies on the likely biotic effects of climate change have focused on the mean responses of pooled groups of animals. Consequently, the extent to which inter-individual variation mediates different selection responses has not been tested. Investigating this variation is important, since some individuals may be preadapted to future climate scenarios.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We examined the effect of CO₂-induced pH changes (“ocean acidification”) in sperm swimming behaviour on the fertilization success of the Australasian sea urchin Heliocidaris erythrogramma, focusing on the responses of separate individuals and pairs. Acidification significantly decreased the proportion of motile sperm but had no effect on sperm swimming speed. Subsequent fertilization experiments showed strong inter-individual variation in responses to ocean acidification, ranging from a 44% decrease to a 14% increase in fertilization success. This was partly explained by the significant relationship between decreases in percent sperm motility and fertilization success at ΔpH = 0.3, but not at ΔpH = 0.5.

Conclusions and Significance

The effects of ocean acidification on reproductive success varied markedly between individuals. Our results suggest that some individuals will exhibit enhanced fertilization success in acidified oceans, supporting the concept of ‘winners’ and ‘losers’ of climate change at an individual level. If these differences are heritable it is likely that ocean acidification will lead to selection against susceptible phenotypes as well as to rapid fixation of alleles that allow reproduction under more acidic conditions. This selection may ameliorate the biotic effects of climate change if taxa have sufficient extant genetic variation upon which selection can act.     

Trends in Ocean Colour and Chlorophyll Concentration from 1889 to 2000, Worldwide

Marine primary productivity is an important agent in the global cycling of carbon dioxide, a major ‘greenhouse gas’, and variations in the concentration of the ocean''s phytoplankton biomass can therefore explain trends in the global carbon budget. Since the launch of satellite-mounted sensors globe-wide monitoring of chlorophyll, a phytoplankton biomass proxy, became feasible. Just as satellites, the Forel-Ule (FU) scale record (a hardly explored database of ocean colour) has covered all seas and oceans – but already since 1889. We provide evidence that changes of ocean surface chlorophyll can be reconstructed with confidence from this record. The EcoLight radiative transfer numerical model indicates that the FU index is closely related to chlorophyll concentrations in open ocean regions. The most complete FU record is that of the North Atlantic in terms of coverage over space and in time; this dataset has been used to test the validity of colour changes that can be translated to chlorophyll. The FU and FU-derived chlorophyll data were analysed for monotonously increasing or decreasing trends with the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test, a method to establish the presence of a consistent trend. Our analysis has not revealed a globe-wide trend of increase or decrease in chlorophyll concentration during the past century; ocean regions have apparently responded differentially to changes in meteorological, hydrological and biological conditions at the surface, including potential long-term trends related to global warming. Since 1889, chlorophyll concentrations have decreased in the Indian Ocean and in the Pacific; increased in the Atlantic Ocean, the Mediterranean, the Chinese Sea, and in the seas west and north-west of Japan. This suggests that explanations of chlorophyll changes over long periods should focus on hydrographical and biological characteristics typical of single ocean regions, not on those of ‘the’ ocean.