Spatial Heterogeneity and Risk Maps of Community Infestation by Triatoma infestans in Rural Northwestern Argentina

Background

Fifty years of residual insecticide spraying to control Triatoma infestans in the Gran Chaco region of northern Argentina, Paraguay and Bolivia shows that vertically coordinated interventions aiming at full coverage have limited effects and are unsustainable. We quantified the spatial distribution of T. infestans domestic infestation at the district level, identified environmental factors associated with high infestation and then explored the usefulness of risk maps for the spatial stratification of interventions.

Methods and Findings

We performed spatial analyses of house infestation data collected by the National Chagas Service in Moreno Department, northern Argentina (1999–2002). Clusters of high domestic infestation occurred in the southwestern extreme of the district. A multi-model selection approach showed that domestic infestation clustered in areas of low elevation, with few farmlands, high density of rural houses, high mean maximum land surface temperature, large NDVI, and high percentage of degraded and deforested lands. The best model classified 98.4% of the communities in the training dataset (sensitivity, 93.3%; specificity, 95.4%). The risk map evidenced that the high-risk area only encompassed 16% of the district. By building a network-based transportation model we assessed the operational costs of spatially contiguous and spatially targeted interventions. Targeting clusters of high infestation would have reached ∼80% of all communities slated for full-coverage insecticide spraying, reducing in half the total time and economic cost incurred by a spatially contiguous strategy.

Conclusions and Significance

In disperse rural areas where control programs can accomplish limited coverage, consideration of infestation hot spots can contribute to the design and execution of cost-effective interventions against Chagas disease vectors. If field validated, targeted vertical control in high risk areas and horizontal control in medium to low risk areas may provide both a logistically and economically feasible alternative to blanket vertical insecticide spraying when resources are limited.     

Opportunities for Improved Chagas Disease Vector Control Based on Knowledge,Attitudes and Practices of Communities in the Yucatan Peninsula,Mexico

Background

Chagas disease is a vector-borne parasitic disease of major public health importance. Current prevention efforts are based on triatomine vector control to reduce transmission to humans. Success of vector control interventions depends on their acceptability and value to affected communities. We aimed to identify opportunities for and barriers to improved vector control strategies in the Yucatan peninsula, Mexico.

Methodology/principal findings

We employed a sequence of qualitative and quantitative research methods to investigate knowledge, attitudes and practices surrounding Chagas disease, triatomines and vector control in three rural communities. Our combined data show that community members are well aware of triatomines and are knowledgeable about their habits. However, most have a limited understanding of the transmission dynamics and clinical manifestations of Chagas disease. While triatomine control is not a priority for community members, they frequently use domestic insecticide products including insecticide spray, mosquito coils and plug-in repellents. Families spend about $32 US per year on these products. Alternative methods such as yard cleaning and window screens are perceived as desirable and potentially more effective. Screens are nonetheless described as unaffordable, in spite of a cost comparable to the average annual spending on insecticide products.

Conclusion/Significance

Further education campaigns and possibly financing schemes may lead families to redirect their current vector control spending from insecticide products to window screens. Also, synergism with mosquito control efforts should be further explored to motivate community involvement and ensure sustainability of Chagas disease vector control.     

Integrated HIV testing, malaria, and diarrhea prevention campaign in Kenya: modeled health impact and cost-effectiveness

Background

Efficiently delivered interventions to reduce HIV, malaria, and diarrhea are essential to accelerating global health efforts. A 2008 community integrated prevention campaign in Western Province, Kenya, reached 47,000 individuals over 7 days, providing HIV testing and counseling, water filters, insecticide-treated bed nets, condoms, and for HIV-infected individuals cotrimoxazole prophylaxis and referral for ongoing care. We modeled the potential cost-effectiveness of a scaled-up integrated prevention campaign.

Methods

We estimated averted deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) based on published data on baseline mortality and morbidity and on the protective effect of interventions, including antiretroviral therapy. We incorporate a previously estimated scaled-up campaign cost. We used published costs of medical care to estimate savings from averted illness (for all three diseases) and the added costs of initiating treatment earlier in the course of HIV disease.

Results

Per 1000 participants, projected reductions in cases of diarrhea, malaria, and HIV infection avert an estimated 16.3 deaths, 359 DALYs and $85,113 in medical care costs. Earlier care for HIV-infected persons adds an estimated 82 DALYs averted (to a total of 442), at a cost of $37,097 (reducing total averted costs to $48,015). Accounting for the estimated campaign cost of $32,000, the campaign saves an estimated $16,015 per 1000 participants. In multivariate sensitivity analyses, 83% of simulations result in net savings, and 93% in a cost per DALY averted of less than $20.

Discussion

A mass, rapidly implemented campaign for HIV testing, safe water, and malaria control appears economically attractive.     

Costs of a Motivational Enhancement Therapy Coupled with Cognitive Behavioral Therapy versus Brief Advice for Pregnant Substance Users

Objectives

To determine and compare costs of a nurse-administered behavioral intervention for pregnant substance users that integrated motivational enhancement therapy with cognitive behavioral therapy (MET-CBT) to brief advice (BA) administered by an obstetrical provider. Both interventions were provided concurrent with prenatal care.

Methods

We conducted a micro-costing study that prospectively collected detailed resource utilization and unit cost data for each of the two intervention arms (MET-CBT and BA) within the context of a randomized controlled trial. A three-step approach for identifying, measuring and valuing resource utilization was used. All cost estimates were inflation adjusted to 2011 U.S. dollars.

Results

A total of 82 participants received the MET-CBT intervention and 86 participants received BA. From the societal perspective, the total cost (including participants’ time cost) of the MET-CBT intervention was $120,483 or $1,469 per participant. In contrast, the total cost of the BA intervention was $27,199 or $316 per participant. Personnel costs (nurse therapists and obstetric providers) for delivering the intervention sessions and supervising the program composed the largest share of the MET-CBT intervention costs. Program set up costs, especially intervention material design and training costs, also contributed substantially to the overall cost.

Conclusions

Implementation of an MET-CBT program to promote drug abstinence in pregnant women is associated with modest costs. Future cost effectiveness and cost benefit analyses integrating costs with outcomes and benefits data will enable a more comprehensive understanding of the intervention in improving the care of substance abusing pregnant women.     

The High Cost of Free Tuberculosis Services: Patient and Household Costs Associated with Tuberculosis Care in Ebonyi State,Nigeria

Objective

Poverty is both a cause and consequence of tuberculosis. The objective of this study is to quantify patient/household costs for an episode of tuberculosis (TB), its relationships with household impoverishment, and the strategies used to cope with the costs by TB patients in a resource-limited high TB/HIV setting.

Methods

A cross-sectional study was conducted in three rural hospitals in southeast Nigeria. Consecutive adults with newly diagnosed pulmonary TB were interviewed to determine the costs each incurred in their care-seeking pathway using a standardised questionnaire. We defined direct costs as out-of-pocket payments, and indirect costs as lost income.

Results

Of 452 patients enrolled, majority were male 55% (249), and rural residents 79% (356), with a mean age of 34 (±11.6) years. Median direct pre-diagnosis/diagnosis cost was $49 per patient. Median direct treatment cost was $36 per patient. Indirect pre-diagnostic and treatment costs were $416, or 79% of total patient costs, $528. The median total cost of TB care per household was $592; corresponding to 37% of median annual household income pre-TB. Most patients reported having to borrow money 212(47%), sell assets 42(9%), or both 144(32%) to cope with the cost of care. Following an episode of TB, household income reduced increasing the proportion of households classified as poor from 54% to 79%. Before TB illness, independent predictors of household poverty were; rural residence (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 2.8), HIV-positive status (aOR 4.8), and care-seeking at a private facility (aOR 5.1). After TB care, independent determinants of household poverty were; younger age (≤35 years; aOR 2.4), male gender (aOR 2.1), and HIV-positive status (aOR 2.5).

Conclusion

Patient and household costs for TB care are potentially catastrophic even where services are provided free-of-charge. There is an urgent need to implement strategies for TB care that are affordable for the poor.     

The Cost of Autism Spectrum Disorders

Objective

A diagnosis of an autism spectrum disorders is usually associated with substantial lifetime costs to an individual, their family and the community. However, there remains an elusive factor in any cost-benefit analysis of ASD diagnosis, namely the cost of not obtaining a diagnosis. Given the infeasibility of estimating the costs of a population that, by its nature, is inaccessible, the current study compares expenses between families whose children received a formal ASD diagnosis immediately upon suspecting developmental atypicality and seeking advice, with families that experienced a delay between first suspicion and formal diagnosis.

Design

A register based questionnaire study covering all families with a child with ASD in Western Australia.

Participants

Families with one or more children diagnosed with an ASD, totalling 521 children diagnosed with an ASD; 317 records were able to be included in the final analysis.

Results

The median family cost of ASD was estimated to be AUD $34,900 per annum with almost 90% of the sum ($29,200) due to loss of income from employment. For each additional symptom reported, approximately $1,400 cost for the family per annum was added. While there was little direct influence on costs associated with a delay in the diagnosis, the delay was associated with a modest increase in the number of ASD symptoms, indirectly impacting the cost of ASD.

Conclusions

A delay in diagnosis was associated with an indirect increased financial burden to families. Early and appropriate access to early intervention is known to improve a child''s long-term outcomes and reduce lifetime costs to the individual, family and society. Consequently, a per symptom dollar value may assist in allocation of individualised funding amounts for interventions rather than a nominal amount allocated to all children below a certain age, regardless of symptom presentation, as is the case in Western Australia.     

Comparative effectiveness of guidelines for the management of hyperlipidemia and hypertension for type 2 diabetes patients

Background

Several guidelines to reduce cardiovascular risk in diabetes patients exist in North America, Europe, and Australia. Their ability to achieve this goal efficiently is unclear.

Methods and Findings

Decision analysis was used to compare the efficiency and effectiveness of international contemporary guidelines for the management of hypertension and hyperlipidemia for patients aged 40–80 with type 2 diabetes. Measures of comparative effectiveness included the expected probability of a coronary or stroke event, incremental medication costs per event, and number-needed-to-treat (NNT) to prevent an event. All guidelines are equally effective, but they differ significantly in their medication costs. The range of NNT to prevent an event was small across guidelines (6.5–7.6 for males and 6.5–7.5 for females); a larger range of differences were observed for expected cost per event avoided (ranges, $117,269–$157,186 for males and $115,999–$163,775 for females). Australian and U.S. guidelines result in the highest and lowest expected costs, respectively.

Conclusions

International guidelines based on the same evidence and seeking the same goal are similar in their effectiveness; however, there are large differences in expected medication costs.     

Intensified Surveillance and Insecticide-based Control of the Chagas Disease Vector Triatoma infestans in the Argentinean Chaco

Background

The elimination of Triatoma infestans, the main Chagas disease vector in the Gran Chaco region, remains elusive. We implemented an intensified control strategy based on full-coverage pyrethroid spraying, followed by frequent vector surveillance and immediate selective insecticide treatment of detected foci in a well-defined rural area in northeastern Argentina with moderate pyrethroid resistance. We assessed long-term impacts, and identified factors and procedures affecting spray effectiveness.

Methods and Findings

After initial control interventions, timed-manual searches were performed by skilled personnel in 4,053 sites of 353–411 houses inspected every 4–7 months over a 35-month period. Residual insecticide spraying was less effective than expected throughout the three-year period, mainly because of the occurrence of moderate pyrethroid resistance and the limited effectiveness of selective treatment of infested sites only. After initial interventions, peridomestic infestation prevalence always exceeded domestic infestation, and timed-manual searches consistently outperformed householders'' bug detection, except in domiciles. Most of the infestations occurred in houses infested at baseline, and were restricted to four main ecotopes. Houses with an early persistent infestation were spatially aggregated up to a distance of 2.5 km. An Akaike-based multi-model inference approach showed that new site-level infestations increased substantially with the local availability of appropriate refugia for triatomine bugs, and with proximity to the nearest site found infested at one or two preceding surveys.

Conclusions and Significance

Current vector control procedures have limited effectiveness in the Gran Chaco. Selective insecticide sprays must include all sites within the infested house compound. The suppression of T. infestans in rural areas with moderate pyrethroid resistance requires increased efforts and appropriate management actions. In addition to careful, systematic insecticide applications, housing improvement and development policies that improve material conditions of rural villagers and reduce habitat suitability for bugs will contribute substantially to sustainable vector and disease control in the Gran Chaco.     

Opportunity Cost for Early Treatment of Chagas Disease in Mexico

Background

Given current neglect for Chagas disease in public health programs in Mexico, future healthcare and economic development policies will need a more robust model to analyze costs and impacts of timely clinical attention of infected populations.

Methodology/Principal Findings

A Markov decision model was constructed to simulate the natural history of a Chagas disease cohort in Mexico and to project the associated short and long-term clinical outcomes and corresponding costs. The lifetime cost for a timely diagnosed and treated Chagas disease patient is US$ 10,160, while the cost for an undiagnosed individual is US$ 11,877. The cost of a diagnosed and treated case increases 24-fold from early acute to indeterminate stage. The major cost component for lifetime cost was working days lost, between 44% and 75%, depending on the program scenario for timely diagnosis and treatment.

Conclusions/Significance

In the long term, it is cheaper to diagnose and treat chagasic patients early, instead of doing nothing. This finding by itself argues for the need to shift current policy, in order to prioritize and attend this neglected disease for the benefit of social and economic development, which implies including treatment drugs in the national formularies. Present results are even more relevant, if one considers that timely diagnosis and treatment can arrest clinical progression and enhance a chronic patient''s quality of life.     

Impact of Mental Health Visits on Healthcare Cost in Patients with Diabetes and Comorbid Mental Health Disorders

Purpose

To assess the impact of mental health visits (MHV) on the cost of care for Veterans with diabetes and comorbid mental health conditions.

Methods

A national cohort of 120,852 Veterans with diabetes and at least one mental health diagnosis (i.e., substance abuse, depression or psychoses) in 2002 was followed through 2006. Outcomes were pharmacy, inpatient and outpatient costs in 2012 dollars.

Results

Least-square covariate adjusted estimates from the joint model of total VA costs of the number of MHV using December 31, 2012 value dollars indicate that relative to those with fewer MHV, those with 3+ MHV had the lowest mean inpatient cost ($21,406), but the highest mean outpatient and pharmacy cost ($9,727 and $2,015, respectively). If all Veterans who received zero MHV actually received 3+ MHV, we estimate through simulated scenarios that between $32,272,329 and $181,460,247 in inpatient costs would be saved. However, these savings would be offset by additional expenditures of between $1,166,017,547 and $1,166,224,787 in outpatient costs and between $151,604,683 and $161,439,632 in pharmacy costs.

Conclusions

Among Veterans with diabetes and comorbid mental disorders having three or more mental health visits is associated with marginally decreased inpatient cost, but these potential savings seem to be offset by increased outpatient and pharmacy costs.     

A field trial of alternative targeted screening strategies for Chagas disease in Arequipa, Peru

Background

Chagas disease is endemic in the rural areas of southern Peru and a growing urban problem in the regional capital of Arequipa, population ∼860,000. It is unclear how to implement cost-effective screening programs across a large urban and periurban environment.

Methods

We compared four alternative screening strategies in 18 periurban communities, testing individuals in houses with 1) infected vectors; 2) high vector densities; 3) low vector densities; and 4) no vectors. Vector data were obtained from routine Ministry of Health insecticide application campaigns. We performed ring case detection (radius of 15 m) around seropositive individuals, and collected data on costs of implementation for each strategy.

Results

Infection was detected in 21 of 923 (2.28%) participants. Cases had lived more time on average in rural places than non-cases (7.20 years versus 3.31 years, respectively). Significant risk factors on univariate logistic regression for infection were age (OR 1.02; p = 0.041), time lived in a rural location (OR 1.04; p = 0.022), and time lived in an infested area (OR 1.04; p = 0.008). No multivariate model with these variables fit the data better than a simple model including only the time lived in an area with triatomine bugs. There was no significant difference in prevalence across the screening strategies; however a self-assessment of disease risk may have biased participation, inflating prevalence among residents of houses where no infestation was detected. Testing houses with infected-vectors was least expensive. Ring case detection yielded four secondary cases in only one community, possibly due to vector-borne transmission in this community, apparently absent in the others.

Conclusions

Targeted screening for urban Chagas disease is promising in areas with ongoing vector-borne transmission; however, these pockets of epidemic transmission remain difficult to detect a priori. The flexibility to adapt to the epidemiology that emerges during screening is key to an efficient case detection intervention. In heterogeneous urban environments, self-assessments of risk and simple residence history questionnaires may be useful to identify those at highest risk for Chagas disease to guide diagnostic efforts.     

Retention in Care and Outpatient Costs for Children Receiving Antiretroviral Therapy in Zambia: A Retrospective Cohort Analysis

Background

There are few published estimates of the cost of pediatric antiretroviral therapy (ART) in Africa. Our objective was to estimate the outpatient cost of providing ART to children remaining in care at six public sector clinics in Zambia during the first three years after ART initiation, stratified by service delivery site and time on treatment.

Methods

Data on resource utilization (drugs, diagnostics, outpatient visits, fixed costs) and treatment outcomes (in care, died, lost to follow up) were extracted from medical records for 1,334 children at six sites who initiated ART at <15 years of age between 2006 and 2011. Fixed and variable unit costs (reported in 2011 USD) were estimated from the provider’s perspective using site level data.

Results

Median age at ART initiation was 4.0 years; median CD4 percentage was 14%. One year after ART initiation, 73% of patients remained in care, ranging from 60% to 91% depending on site. The average annual outpatient cost per patient remaining in care was $209 (95% CI, $199–$219), ranging from $116 (95% CI, $107–$126) to $516 (95% CI, $499–$533) depending on site. Average annual costs decreased as time on treatment increased. Antiretroviral drugs were the largest component of all outpatient costs (>50%) at four sites. At the two remaining sites, outpatient visits and fixed costs together accounted for >50% of outpatient costs. The distribution of costs is slightly skewed, with median costs 3% to 13% lower than average costs during the first year after ART initiation depending on site.

Conclusions

Outpatient costs for children initiating ART in Zambia are low and comparable to reported outpatient costs for adults. Outpatient costs and retention in care vary widely by site, suggesting opportunities for efficiency gains. Taking advantage of such opportunities will help ensure that targets for pediatric treatment coverage can be met.     

An Economic Assessment Model of Rural and Remote Satellite Hemodialysis Units

Background

Kidney Failure is epidemic in many remote communities in Canada. In-centre hemodialysis is provided within these settings in satellite hemodialysis units. The key cost drivers of this program have not been fully described. Such information is important in informing the design of programs aimed at optimizing efficiency in providing dialysis and preventative chronic kidney disease care in remote communities.

Design, Setting, Participants, and Measurements

We constructed a cost model based on data derived from 16 of Manitoba, Canada’s remote satellite units. We included all costs for operation of the unit, transportation, treatment, and capital costs. All costs were presented in 2013 Canadian dollars.

Results

The annual per-patient cost of providing hemodialysis in the satellite units ranged from $80,372 to $215,918 per patient, per year. The median per patient, per year cost was $99,888 (IQR $89,057—$122,640). Primary cost drivers were capital costs related to construction, human resource expenses, and expenses for return to tertiary care centres for health care. Costs related to transport considerably increased estimates in units that required plane or helicopter transfers.

Conclusions

Satellite hemodialysis units in remote areas are more expensive on a per-patient basis than hospital hemodialysis and satellite hemodialysis available in urban areas. In some rural, remote locations, better value for money may reside in local surveillance and prevention programs in addition support for home dialysis therapies over construction of new satellite hemodialysis units.     

Cost-effectiveness of Internet-based self-management compared with usual care in asthma

Background

Effectiveness of Internet-based self-management in patients with asthma has been shown, but its cost-effectiveness is unknown. We conducted a cost-effectiveness analysis of Internet-based asthma self-management compared with usual care.

Methodology and Principal Findings

Cost-effectiveness analysis alongside a randomized controlled trial, with 12 months follow-up. Patients were aged 18 to 50 year and had physician diagnosed asthma. The Internet-based self-management program involved weekly on-line monitoring of asthma control with self-treatment advice, remote Web communications, and Internet-based information. We determined quality adjusted life years (QALYs) as measured by the EuroQol-5D and costs for health care use and absenteeism. We performed a detailed cost price analysis for the primary intervention. QALYs did not statistically significantly differ between the Internet group and usual care: difference 0.024 (95% CI, −0.016 to 0.065). Costs of the Internet-based intervention were $254 (95% CI, $243 to $265) during the period of 1 year. From a societal perspective, the cost difference was $641 (95% CI, $−1957 to $3240). From a health care perspective, the cost difference was $37 (95% CI, $−874 to $950). At a willingness-to-pay of $50000 per QALY, the probability that Internet-based self-management was cost-effective compared to usual care was 62% and 82% from a societal and health care perspective, respectively.

Conclusions

Internet-based self-management of asthma can be as effective as current asthma care and costs are similar.

Trial Registration

Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN79864465     

A Novel Estimation of the Relative Economic Value in Terms of Different Chronic Hepatitis B Treatment Options

Background

Prescribers, payors and healthcare decision-makers are increasingly examining the value of treatments. This study aims at analyzing economic value of chronic hepatitis B (CHB) treatment options, which are available in Korea.

Methods

CHB infection was simulated using a health-state transition model with disease states defined as mild disease (Ishak F0/F1), fibrosis (F2/F3/F4), advanced fibrosis/cirrhosis (>F4), and complicated disease states (decompensated cirrhosis, hepatocellular carcinoma, liver transplant and death) based on available natural history data. The value of treatment-specific attributes on disease progression/regression was estimated based on published data in terms of events and costs avoided. 5-year treatment duration was assumed except for treatment initiation. Primary model output is the estimated cost savings of entecavir per patient per day of treatment versus the comparator in question for a given CHB patient.

Results

The simulation of treating with entecavir versus no treatment predicted improved clinical outcomes for entecavir-treatment patients. In the long term, these clinical benefits translate into cost savings of $3.10 per day of treatment. In naive patient treatment, daily cost savings of using entecavir versus lamivudine or telbivudine was estimated at $2.89 and $1.72, respectively. In the case of suboptimal responders who pre-treated with lamivudine, daily cost saving for patients switching to entecavir was $1.38 per day of treatment compared to patients maintaining on lamivudine.

Conclusions

Entecavir exhibits characteristics of a favourable CHB treatment, which directly translates into economic and therapeutic value as opposed to either no treatment or alternative strategies.     

Costs and cost-effectiveness of training traditional birth attendants to reduce neonatal mortality in the Lufwanyama Neonatal Survival study (LUNESP)

Background

The Lufwanyama Neonatal Survival Project (“LUNESP”) was a cluster randomized, controlled trial that showed that training traditional birth attendants (TBAs) to perform interventions targeting birth asphyxia, hypothermia, and neonatal sepsis reduced all-cause neonatal mortality by 45%. This companion analysis was undertaken to analyze intervention costs and cost-effectiveness, and factors that might improve cost-effectiveness.

Methods and Findings

We calculated LUNESP''s financial and economic costs and the economic cost of implementation for a forecasted ten-year program (2011–2020). In each case, we calculated the incremental cost per death avoided and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) averted in real 2011 US dollars. The forecasted 10-year program analysis included a base case as well as ‘conservative’ and ‘optimistic’ scenarios. Uncertainty was characterized using one-way sensitivity analyses and a multivariate probabilistic sensitivity analysis. The estimated financial and economic costs of LUNESP were $118,574 and $127,756, respectively, or $49,469 and $53,550 per year. Fixed costs accounted for nearly 90% of total costs. For the 10-year program, discounted total and annual program costs were $256,455 and $26,834 respectively; for the base case, optimistic, and conservative scenarios, the estimated cost per death avoided was $1,866, $591, and $3,024, and cost per DALY averted was $74, $24, and $120, respectively. Outcomes were robust to variations in local costs, but sensitive to variations in intervention effect size, number of births attended by TBAs, and the extent of foreign consultants'' participation.

Conclusions

Based on established guidelines, the strategy of using trained TBAs to reduce neonatal mortality was ‘highly cost effective’. We strongly recommend consideration of this approach for other remote rural populations with limited access to health care.     

Health and Economic Burden of Obesity in Brazil

Introduction

Higher and lower-middle income countries are increasingly affected by obesity. Obesity-related diseases are placing a substantial health and economic burden on Brazil. Our aim is to measure the future consequences of these trends on the associated disease burden and health care costs.

Method

A previously developed micro-simulation model is used to project the extent of obesity, obesity-related diseases and associated healthcare costs to 2050. In total, thirteen diseases were considered: coronary heart disease, stroke, hypertension, diabetes, osteoarthritis, and eight cancers. We simulated three hypothetical intervention scenarios: no intervention, 1% and 5% reduction in body mass index (BMI).

Results

In 2010, nearly 57% of the Brazilian male population was overweight or obese (BMI ≥25 kg/m²), but the model projects rates as high as 95% by 2050. A slightly less pessimistic picture is predicted for females, increasing from 43% in 2010 to 52% in 2050. Coronary heart disease, stroke, hypertension, cancers, osteoarthritis and diabetes prevalence cases are projected to at least double by 2050, reaching nearly 34,000 cases of hypertension by 2050 (per 100,000). 1% and 5% reduction in mean BMI will save over 800 prevalence cases and nearly 3,000 cases of hypertension by 2050 respectively (per 100,000). The health care costs will double from 2010 ($5.8 billion) in 2050 alone ($10.1 billion). Over 40 years costs will reach $330 billion. However, with effective interventions the costs can be reduced to $302 billion by 1% and to $273 billion by 5% reduction in mean BMI across the population.

Conclusion

Obesity rates are rapidly increasing creating a high burden of disease and associated costs. However, an effective intervention to decrease obesity by just 1% will substantially reduce obesity burden and will have a significant effect on health care expenditure.     

Cost-Effectiveness of Chagas Disease Vector Control Strategies in Northwestern Argentina

Background

Control and prevention of Chagas disease rely mostly on residual spraying of insecticides. In Argentina, vector control shifted from a vertical to a fully horizontal strategy based on community participation between 1992 and 2004. The effects of such strategy on Triatoma infestans, the main domestic vector, and on disease transmission have not been assessed.

Methods and Findings

Based on retrospective (1993–2004) records from the Argentinean Ministry of Health for the Moreno Department, Northwestern Argentina, we performed a cost-effectiveness (CE) analysis and compared the observed CE of the fully horizontal vector control strategy with the expected CE for a vertical or a mixed (i.e., vertical attack phase followed by horizontal surveillance) strategy. Total direct costs (in 2004 US$) of the horizontal and mixed strategies were, respectively, 3.3 and 1.7 times lower than the costs of the vertical strategy, due to reductions in personnel costs. The estimated CE ratios for the vertical, mixed and horizontal strategies were US$132, US$82 and US$45 per averted human case, respectively. When per diems were excluded from the costs (i.e., simulating the decentralization of control activities), the CE of vertical, mixed and horizontal strategies was reduced to US$60, US$42 and US$32 per averted case, respectively.

Conclusions and Significance

The mixed strategy would have averted between 1.6 and 4.0 times more human cases than the fully horizontal strategy, and would have been the most cost-effective option to interrupt parasite transmission in the Department. In rural and dispersed areas where waning vertical vector programs cannot accomplish full insecticide coverage, alternative strategies need to be developed. If properly implemented, community participation represents not only the most appealing but also the most cost-effective alternative to accomplish such objectives.     

The Cost and Cost-Effectiveness of Scaling up Screening and Treatment of Syphilis in Pregnancy: A Model

Background

Syphilis in pregnancy imposes a significant global health and economic burden. More than half of cases result in serious adverse events, including infant mortality and infection. The annual global burden from mother-to-child transmission (MTCT) of syphilis is estimated at 3.6 million disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and $309 million in medical costs. Syphilis screening and treatment is simple, effective, and affordable, yet, worldwide, most pregnant women do not receive these services. We assessed cost-effectiveness of scaling-up syphilis screening and treatment in existing antenatal care (ANC) programs in various programmatic, epidemiologic, and economic contexts.

Methods and Findings

We modeled the cost, health impact, and cost-effectiveness of expanded syphilis screening and treatment in ANC, compared to current services, for 1,000,000 pregnancies per year over four years. We defined eight generic country scenarios by systematically varying three factors: current maternal syphilis testing and treatment coverage, syphilis prevalence in pregnant women, and the cost of healthcare. We calculated program and net costs, DALYs averted, and net costs per DALY averted over four years in each scenario. Program costs are estimated at $4,142,287 – $8,235,796 per million pregnant women (2010 USD). Net costs, adjusted for averted medical care and current services, range from net savings of $12,261,250 to net costs of $1,736,807. The program averts an estimated 5,754 – 93,484 DALYs, yielding net savings in four scenarios, and a cost per DALY averted of $24 – $111 in the four scenarios with net costs. Results were robust in sensitivity analyses.

Conclusions

Eliminating MTCT of syphilis through expanded screening and treatment in ANC is likely to be highly cost-effective by WHO-defined thresholds in a wide range of settings. Countries with high prevalence, low current service coverage, and high healthcare cost would benefit most. Future analyses can be tailored to countries using local epidemiologic and programmatic data.     

Evaluation of the Ethiopian Millennium Rural Initiative: Impact on Mortality and Cost-Effectiveness

Main Objective

Few studies have examined the long-term, impact of large-scale interventions to strengthen primary care services for women and children in rural, low-income settings. We evaluated the impact of the Ethiopian Millennium Rural Initiative (EMRI), an 18-month systems-based intervention to improve the performance of 30 primary health care units in rural areas of Ethiopia.

Methods

We assessed the impact of EMRI on maternal and child survival using The Lives Saved Tool (LiST), Demography (DemProj) and AIDS Impact Model (AIM) tools in Spectrum software, inputting monthly data on 6 indicators 1) antenatal coverage (ANC), 2) skilled birth attendance coverage (SBA), 3) post-natal coverage (PNC), 4) HIV testing during ANC, 5) measles vaccination coverage, and 6) pentavalent 3 vaccination coverages. We calculated a cost-benefit ratio of the EMRI program including lives saved during implementation and lives saved during implementation and 5 year follow-up.

Results

A total of 134 lives (all children) were estimated to have been saved due to the EMRI interventions during the 18-month intervention in 30 health centers and their catchment areas, with an estimated additional 852 lives (820 children and 2 adults) saved during the 5-year post-EMRI period. For the 18-month intervention period, EMRI cost $37,313 per life saved ($42,366 per life if evaluation costs are included). Calculated over the 18-month intervention plus 5 years post-intervention, EMRI cost $5,875 per life saved ($6,671 per life if evaluation costs are included). The cost effectiveness of EMRI improves substantially if the performance achieved during the 18 months of the EMRI intervention is sustained for 5 years. Scaling up EMRI to operate for 5 years across the 4 major regions of Ethiopia could save as many as 34,908 lives.

Significance

A systems-based approach to improving primary care in low-income settings can have transformational impact on lives saved and be cost-effective.