Detection of Change Points in Time Series with Moving Average Filters and Wavelet Transform: Application to EEG Signals

Neurophysiology - We investigated change point detection (CPD) in time series composed of harmonic functions driven by Gaussian noise (in EEGs, in particular) and proposed a method of moving...     

Unsupervised Spatial Event Detection in Targeted Domains with Applications to Civil Unrest Modeling

Twitter has become a popular data source as a surrogate for monitoring and detecting events. Targeted domains such as crime, election, and social unrest require the creation of algorithms capable of detecting events pertinent to these domains. Due to the unstructured language, short-length messages, dynamics, and heterogeneity typical of Twitter data streams, it is technically difficult and labor-intensive to develop and maintain supervised learning systems. We present a novel unsupervised approach for detecting spatial events in targeted domains and illustrate this approach using one specific domain, viz. civil unrest modeling. Given a targeted domain, we propose a dynamic query expansion algorithm to iteratively expand domain-related terms, and generate a tweet homogeneous graph. An anomaly identification method is utilized to detect spatial events over this graph by jointly maximizing local modularity and spatial scan statistics. Extensive experiments conducted in 10 Latin American countries demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach.     

MuTE: A MATLAB Toolbox to Compare Established and Novel Estimators of the Multivariate Transfer Entropy

A challenge for physiologists and neuroscientists is to map information transfer between components of the systems that they study at different scales, in order to derive important knowledge on structure and function from the analysis of the recorded dynamics. The components of physiological networks often interact in a nonlinear way and through mechanisms which are in general not completely known. It is then safer that the method of choice for analyzing these interactions does not rely on any model or assumption on the nature of the data and their interactions. Transfer entropy has emerged as a powerful tool to quantify directed dynamical interactions. In this paper we compare different approaches to evaluate transfer entropy, some of them already proposed, some novel, and present their implementation in a freeware MATLAB toolbox. Applications to simulated and real data are presented.     

A Novel Algorithm for Movement Artifact Removal in ECG Signals Acquired from Wearable Systems Applied to Horses

This study reports on a novel method to detect and reduce the contribution of movement artifact (MA) in electrocardiogram (ECG) recordings gathered from horses in free movement conditions. We propose a model that integrates cardiovascular and movement information to estimate the MA contribution. Specifically, ECG and physical activity are continuously acquired from seven horses through a wearable system. Such a system employs completely integrated textile electrodes to monitor ECG and is also equipped with a triaxial accelerometer for movement monitoring. In the literature, the most used technique to remove movement artifacts, when noise bandwidth overlaps the primary source bandwidth, is the adaptive filter. In this study we propose a new algorithm, hereinafter called Stationary Wavelet Movement Artifact Reduction (SWMAR), where the Stationary Wavelet Transform (SWT) decomposition algorithm is employed to identify and remove movement artifacts from ECG signals in horses. A comparative analysis with the Normalized Least Mean Square Adaptive Filter technique (NLMSAF) is performed as well. Results achieved on seven hours of recordings showed a reduction greater than 40% of MA percentage (between before- and after- the application of the proposed algorithm). Moreover, the comparative analysis with the NLMSAF, applied to the same ECG recordings, showed a greater reduction of MA percentage in favour of SWMAR with a statistical significant difference (p–value < 0.0.5).     

A Novel Method for Fast Change-Point Detection on Simulated Time Series and Electrocardiogram Data

Although Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS) statistic is a widely used method, some weaknesses exist in investigating abrupt Change Point (CP) problems, e.g. it is time-consuming and invalid sometimes. To detect abrupt change from time series fast, a novel method is proposed based on Haar Wavelet (HW) and KS statistic (HWKS). First, the two Binary Search Trees (BSTs), termed TcA and TcD, are constructed by multi-level HW from a diagnosed time series; the framework of HWKS method is implemented by introducing a modified KS statistic and two search rules based on the two BSTs; and then fast CP detection is implemented by two HWKS-based algorithms. Second, the performance of HWKS is evaluated by simulated time series dataset. The simulations show that HWKS is faster, more sensitive and efficient than KS, HW, and T methods. Last, HWKS is applied to analyze the electrocardiogram (ECG) time series, the experiment results show that the proposed method can find abrupt change from ECG segment with maximal data fluctuation more quickly and efficiently, and it is very helpful to inspect and diagnose the different state of health from a patient''s ECG signal.     

Functionalized Amphipols: A Versatile Toolbox Suitable for Applications of Membrane Proteins in Synthetic Biology

Amphipols are amphipathic polymers that stabilize membrane proteins isolated from their native membrane. They have been functionalized with various chemical groups in the past years for protein labeling and protein immobilization. This large toolbox of functionalized amphipols combined with their interesting physico-chemical properties give opportunities to selectively add multiple functionalities to membrane proteins and to tune them according to the needs. This unique combination of properties makes them one of the most versatile strategies available today for exploiting membrane proteins onto surfaces for various applications in synthetic biology. This review summarizes the properties of functionalized amphipols suitable for synthetic biology approaches.     

Housefly Population Density Correlates with Shigellosis among Children in Mirzapur,Bangladesh: A Time Series Analysis

Background

Shigella infections are a public health problem in developing and transitional countries because of high transmissibility, severity of clinical disease, widespread antibiotic resistance and lack of a licensed vaccine. Whereas Shigellae are known to be transmitted primarily by direct fecal-oral contact and less commonly by contaminated food and water, the role of the housefly Musca domestica as a mechanical vector of transmission is less appreciated. We sought to assess the contribution of houseflies to Shigella-associated moderate-to-severe diarrhea (MSD) among children less than five years old in Mirzapur, Bangladesh, a site where shigellosis is hyperendemic, and to model the potential impact of a housefly control intervention.

Methods

Stool samples from 843 children presenting to Kumudini Hospital during 2009–2010 with new episodes of MSD (diarrhea accompanied by dehydration, dysentery or hospitalization) were analyzed. Housefly density was measured twice weekly in six randomly selected sentinel households. Poisson time series regression was performed and autoregression-adjusted attributable fractions (AFs) were calculated using the Bruzzi method, with standard errors via jackknife procedure.

Findings

Dramatic springtime peaks in housefly density in 2009 and 2010 were followed one to two months later by peaks of Shigella-associated MSD among toddlers and pre-school children. Poisson time series regression showed that housefly density was associated with Shigella cases at three lags (six weeks) (Incidence Rate Ratio = 1.39 [95% CI: 1.23 to 1.58] for each log increase in fly count), an association that was not confounded by ambient air temperature. Autocorrelation-adjusted AF calculations showed that a housefly control intervention could have prevented approximately 37% of the Shigella cases over the study period.

Interpretation

Houseflies may play an important role in the seasonal transmission of Shigella in some developing country ecologies. Interventions to control houseflies should be evaluated as possible additions to the public health arsenal to diminish Shigella (and perhaps other causes of) diarrheal infection.     

Climate Variability,Weather and Enteric Disease Incidence in New Zealand: Time Series Analysis

Background

Evaluating the influence of climate variability on enteric disease incidence may improve our ability to predict how climate change may affect these diseases.

Objectives

To examine the associations between regional climate variability and enteric disease incidence in New Zealand.

Methods

Associations between monthly climate and enteric diseases (campylobacteriosis, salmonellosis, cryptosporidiosis, giardiasis) were investigated using Seasonal Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) models.

Results

No climatic factors were significantly associated with campylobacteriosis and giardiasis, with similar predictive power for univariate and multivariate models. Cryptosporidiosis was positively associated with average temperature of the previous month (β =  0.130, SE =  0.060, p <0.01) and inversely related to the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) two months previously (β =  −0.008, SE =  0.004, p <0.05). By contrast, salmonellosis was positively associated with temperature (β  = 0.110, SE = 0.020, p<0.001) of the current month and SOI of the current (β  = 0.005, SE = 0.002, p<0.050) and previous month (β  = 0.005, SE = 0.002, p<0.05). Forecasting accuracy of the multivariate models for cryptosporidiosis and salmonellosis were significantly higher.

Conclusions

Although spatial heterogeneity in the observed patterns could not be assessed, these results suggest that temporally lagged relationships between climate variables and national communicable disease incidence data can contribute to disease prediction models and early warning systems.     

食品中阪崎肠杆菌快速检测鉴定方法的研究

通过设计特异性的引物,采用SYBR Green I实时荧光PCR,经引物的优化筛选、特异性和重现性试验,以及模拟污染样品检验,建立了食品中阪崎肠杆菌的快速检测和鉴定方法。     

Changing Use of Surgical Antibiotic Prophylaxis in Thika Hospital,Kenya: A Quality Improvement Intervention with an Interrupted Time Series Design

Introduction

In low-income countries, Surgical Site Infection (SSI) is a common form of hospital-acquired infection. Antibiotic prophylaxis is an effective method of preventing these infections, if given immediately before the start of surgery. Although several studies in Africa have compared pre-operative versus post-operative prophylaxis, there are no studies describing the implementation of policies to improve prescribing of surgical antibiotic prophylaxis in African hospitals.

Methods

We conducted SSI surveillance at a typical Government hospital in Kenya over a 16 month period between August 2010 and December 2011, using standard definitions of SSI and the extent of contamination of surgical wounds. As an intervention, we developed a hospital policy that advised pre-operative antibiotic prophylaxis and discouraged extended post-operative antibiotics use. We measured process, outcome and balancing effects of this intervention in using an interrupted time series design.

Results

From a starting point of near-exclusive post-operative antibiotic use, after policy introduction in February 2011 there was rapid adoption of the use of pre-operative antibiotic prophylaxis (60% of operations at 1 week; 98% at 6 weeks) and a substantial decrease in the use of post-operative antibiotics (40% of operations at 1 week; 10% at 6 weeks) in Clean and Clean-Contaminated surgery. There was no immediate step-change in risk of SSI, but overall, there appeared to be a moderate reduction in the risk of superficial SSI across all levels of wound contamination. There were marked reductions in the costs associated with antibiotic use, the number of intravenous injections performed and nursing time spent administering these.

Conclusion

Implementation of a locally developed policy regarding surgical antibiotic prophylaxis is an achievable quality improvement target for hospitals in low-income countries, and can lead to substantial benefits for individual patients and the institution.     

Learning Rates and States from Biophysical Time Series: A Bayesian Approach to Model Selection and Single-Molecule FRET Data

Time series data provided by single-molecule Förster resonance energy transfer (smFRET) experiments offer the opportunity to infer not only model parameters describing molecular complexes, e.g., rate constants, but also information about the model itself, e.g., the number of conformational states. Resolving whether such states exist or how many of them exist requires a careful approach to the problem of model selection, here meaning discrimination among models with differing numbers of states. The most straightforward approach to model selection generalizes the common idea of maximum likelihood—selecting the most likely parameter values—to maximum evidence: selecting the most likely model. In either case, such an inference presents a tremendous computational challenge, which we here address by exploiting an approximation technique termed variational Bayesian expectation maximization. We demonstrate how this technique can be applied to temporal data such as smFRET time series; show superior statistical consistency relative to the maximum likelihood approach; compare its performance on smFRET data generated from experiments on the ribosome; and illustrate how model selection in such probabilistic or generative modeling can facilitate analysis of closely related temporal data currently prevalent in biophysics. Source code used in this analysis, including a graphical user interface, is available open source via http://vbFRET.sourceforge.net.     

MOtoNMS: A MATLAB toolbox to process motion data for neuromusculoskeletal modeling and simulation

Background

Neuromusculoskeletal modeling and simulation enable investigation of the neuromusculoskeletal system and its role in human movement dynamics. These methods are progressively introduced into daily clinical practice. However, a major factor limiting this translation is the lack of robust tools for the pre-processing of experimental movement data for their use in neuromusculoskeletal modeling software.

Results

This paper presents MOtoNMS (matlab MOtion data elaboration TOolbox for NeuroMusculoSkeletal applications), a toolbox freely available to the community, that aims to fill this lack. MOtoNMS processes experimental data from different motion analysis devices and generates input data for neuromusculoskeletal modeling and simulation software, such as OpenSim and CEINMS (Calibrated EMG-Informed NMS Modelling Toolbox). MOtoNMS implements commonly required processing steps and its generic architecture simplifies the integration of new user-defined processing components. MOtoNMS allows users to setup their laboratory configurations and processing procedures through user-friendly graphical interfaces, without requiring advanced computer skills. Finally, configuration choices can be stored enabling the full reproduction of the processing steps. MOtoNMS is released under GNU General Public License and it is available at the SimTK website and from the GitHub repository. Motion data collected at four institutions demonstrate that, despite differences in laboratory instrumentation and procedures, MOtoNMS succeeds in processing data and producing consistent inputs for OpenSim and CEINMS.

Conclusions

MOtoNMS fills the gap between motion analysis and neuromusculoskeletal modeling and simulation. Its support to several devices, a complete implementation of the pre-processing procedures, its simple extensibility, the available user interfaces, and its free availability can boost the translation of neuromusculoskeletal methods in daily and clinical practice.

     

Road Traffic Injury Trends in the City of Valledupar,Colombia. A Time Series Study from 2008 to 2012

Objective

To analyze the behavior temporal of road-traffic injuries (RTI) in Valledupar, Colombia from January 2008 to December 2012.

Methodology

An observational study was conducted based on records from the Colombian National Legal Medicine and Forensic Sciences Institute regional office in Valledupar. Different variables were analyzed, such as the injured person’s sex, age, education level, and type of road user; the timeframe, place and circumstances of crashes and the vehicles associated with the occurrence. Furthermore, a time series analysis was conducted using an auto-regressive integrated moving average.

Results

There were 105 events per month on an average, 64.9% of RTI involved men; 82.3% of the persons injured were from 18 to 59 years of age; the average age was 35.4 years of age; the road users most involved in RTI were motorcyclists (69%), followed by pedestrians (12%). 70% had up to upper-secondary education. Sunday was the day with the most RTI occurrences; 93% of the RTI occurred in the urban area. The time series showed a seasonal pattern and a significant trend effect. The modeling process verified the existence of both memory and extrinsic variables related.

Conclusions

An RTI occurrence pattern was identified, which showed an upward trend during the period analyzed. Motorcyclists were the main road users involved in RTI, which suggests the need to design and implement specific measures for that type of road user, from regulations for graduated licensing for young drivers to monitoring road user behavior for the promotion of road safety.     

Temperature Changes between Neighboring Days and Mortality in Summer: A Distributed Lag Non-Linear Time Series Analysis

Background

Many studies have shown that high temperatures or heat waves were associated with mortality and morbidity. However, few studies have examined whether temperature changes between neighboring days have any significant impact on human health.

Method

A distributed lag non-linear model was employed to investigate the effect of temperature changes on mortality in summer during 2006–2010 in two subtropical Chinese cities. The temperature change was defined as the difference of the current day’s and the previous day’s mean temperature.

Results

We found non-linear effects of temperature changes between neighboring days in summer on mortality in both cities. Temperature increase was associated with increased mortality from non-accidental diseases and cardiovascular diseases, while temperature decrease had a protective effect on non-accidental mortality and cardiovascular mortality in both cities. Significant association between temperature changes and respiratory mortality was only found in Guangzhou.

Conclusion

This study suggests that temperature changes between neighboring days might be an alternative temperature indicator for studying temperature-mortality relationship.     

SAAS-CNV: A Joint Segmentation Approach on Aggregated and Allele Specific Signals for the Identification of Somatic Copy Number Alterations with Next-Generation Sequencing Data

Cancer genomes exhibit profound somatic copy number alterations (SCNAs). Studying tumor SCNAs using massively parallel sequencing provides unprecedented resolution and meanwhile gives rise to new challenges in data analysis, complicated by tumor aneuploidy and heterogeneity as well as normal cell contamination. While the majority of read depth based methods utilize total sequencing depth alone for SCNA inference, the allele specific signals are undervalued. We proposed a joint segmentation and inference approach using both signals to meet some of the challenges. Our method consists of four major steps: 1) extracting read depth supporting reference and alternative alleles at each SNP/Indel locus and comparing the total read depth and alternative allele proportion between tumor and matched normal sample; 2) performing joint segmentation on the two signal dimensions; 3) correcting the copy number baseline from which the SCNA state is determined; 4) calling SCNA state for each segment based on both signal dimensions. The method is applicable to whole exome/genome sequencing (WES/WGS) as well as SNP array data in a tumor-control study. We applied the method to a dataset containing no SCNAs to test the specificity, created by pairing sequencing replicates of a single HapMap sample as normal/tumor pairs, as well as a large-scale WGS dataset consisting of 88 liver tumors along with adjacent normal tissues. Compared with representative methods, our method demonstrated improved accuracy, scalability to large cancer studies, capability in handling both sequencing and SNP array data, and the potential to improve the estimation of tumor ploidy and purity.     

Comparison of Hybrid Classifiers for Crop Classification Using Normalized Difference Vegetation Index Time Series: A Case Study for Major Crops in North Xinjiang,China

A range of single classifiers have been proposed to classify crop types using time series vegetation indices, and hybrid classifiers are used to improve discriminatory power. Traditional fusion rules use the product of multi-single classifiers, but that strategy cannot integrate the classification output of machine learning classifiers. In this research, the performance of two hybrid strategies, multiple voting (M-voting) and probabilistic fusion (P-fusion), for crop classification using NDVI time series were tested with different training sample sizes at both pixel and object levels, and two representative counties in north Xinjiang were selected as study area. The single classifiers employed in this research included Random Forest (RF), Support Vector Machine (SVM), and See 5 (C 5.0). The results indicated that classification performance improved (increased the mean overall accuracy by 5%~10%, and reduced standard deviation of overall accuracy by around 1%) substantially with the training sample number, and when the training sample size was small (50 or 100 training samples), hybrid classifiers substantially outperformed single classifiers with higher mean overall accuracy (1%~2%). However, when abundant training samples (4,000) were employed, single classifiers could achieve good classification accuracy, and all classifiers obtained similar performances. Additionally, although object-based classification did not improve accuracy, it resulted in greater visual appeal, especially in study areas with a heterogeneous cropping pattern.     

Aspergillus Collagen-Like Genes (acl): Identification,Sequence Polymorphism,and Assessment for PCR-Based Pathogen Detection

The genus Aspergillus is a burden to public health due to its ubiquitous presence in the environment, its production of allergens, and wide demographic susceptibility among cystic fibrosis, asthmatic, and immunosuppressed patients. Current methods of detection of Aspergillus colonization and infection rely on lengthy morphological characterization or nonstandardized serological assays that are restricted to identifying a fungal etiology. Collagen-like genes have been shown to exhibit species-specific conservation across the noncollagenous regions as well as strain-specific polymorphism in the collagen-like regions. Here we assess the conserved region of the Aspergillus collagen-like (acl) genes and explore the application of PCR amplicon size-based discrimination among the five most common etiologic species of the Aspergillus genus, including Aspergillus fumigatus, A. flavus, A. nidulans, A. niger, and A. terreus. Genetic polymorphism and phylogenetic analysis of the aclF1 gene were additionally examined among the available strains. Furthermore, the applicability of the PCR-based assay to identification of these five species in cultures derived from sputum and bronchoalveolar fluid from 19 clinical samples was explored. Application of capillary electrophoresis on nanogels was additionally demonstrated to improve the discrimination between Aspergillus species. Overall, this study demonstrated that Aspergillus acl genes could be used as PCR targets to discriminate between clinically relevant Aspergillus species. Future studies aim to utilize the detection of Aspergillus acl genes in PCR and microfluidic applications to determine the sensitivity and specificity for the identification of Aspergillus colonization and invasive aspergillosis in immunocompromised subjects.