Novel Algorithm for Non-Invasive Assessment of Fibrosis in NAFLD

Introduction

Various conditions of liver disease and the downsides of liver biopsy call for a non-invasive option to assess liver fibrosis. A non-invasive score would be especially useful to identify patients with slow advancing fibrotic processes, as in Non-Alcoholic Fatty Liver Disease (NAFLD), which should undergo histological examination for fibrosis.

Patients/Methods

Classic liver serum parameters, hyaluronic acid (HA) and cell death markers of 126 patients undergoing bariatric surgery for morbid obesity were analyzed by machine learning techniques (logistic regression, k-nearest neighbors, linear support vector machines, rule-based systems, decision trees and random forest (RF)). Specificity, sensitivity and accuracy of the evaluated datasets to predict fibrosis were assessed.

Results

None of the single parameters (ALT, AST, M30, M60, HA) did differ significantly between patients with a fibrosis score 1 or 2. However, combining these parameters using RFs reached 79% accuracy in fibrosis prediction with a sensitivity of more than 60% and specificity of 77%. Moreover, RFs identified the cell death markers M30 and M65 as more important for the decision than the classic liver parameters.

Conclusion

On the basis of serum parameters the generation of a fibrosis scoring system seems feasible, even when only marginally fibrotic tissue is available. Prospective evaluation of novel markers, i.e. cell death parameters, should be performed to identify an optimal set of fibrosis predictors.     

The Development of the Pediatric NAFLD Fibrosis Score (PNFS) to Predict the Presence of Advanced Fibrosis in Children with Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease

Background

Noninvasive hepatic fibrosis scores that predict the presence of advanced fibrosis have been developed and validated in adult patients with NAFLD. The aims of our study were to assess the utility of commonly used adult fibrosis scores in pediatric NAFLD and to develop a pediatric specific fibrosis score that can predict advanced fibrosis.

Methods

Consecutive children with biopsy-proven NAFLD were included. Fibrosis was determined by an experienced pathologist (F0–4). Advanced fibrosis was defined as fibrosis stage ≥3. The following adult fibrosis scores were calculated for each child: AST/ALT ratio, AST/platelet ratio index (APRI), NAFLD fibrosis score (NFS), and FIB-4 Index. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was performed to build a new pediatric model for predicting advanced fibrosis.

Results

Our cohort consisted of 242 children with a mean age of 12.4±3.1 years and 63% were female. 36 (15%) subjects had advanced fibrosis. APRI and FIB-4 were higher in patients with advanced fibrosis compared to those with fibrosis stage 0–2; however, AST/ALT ratio and NFS were not different between the two groups. We used our data to develop a new model to predict advanced fibrosis which included: ALT, alkaline phosphatase, platelet counts and GGT. The multivariable logistic regression model (z) was defined as follows: z = 1.1+(0.34*sqrt(ALT))+(0.002*alkaline phosphatase) – (1.1*log(platelets) – (0.02*GGT). This value was then converted into a probability distribution (p) with a value between 0 to 100 by the following formula: p = 100×exp(z)/[1+exp(z)]. The AUCROC for this model was 0.74 (95% CI: 0.66, 0.82). This was found to be significantly better than APRI, NAFLD Fibrosis Score and FIB-4 Index.

Conclusion

Noninvasive hepatic fibrosis scores developed in adults had poor performance in diagnosing advanced fibrosis in children with NAFLD. We developed a new pediatric NAFLD fibrosis score with improved performance characteristics.     

Establishment of a General NAFLD Scoring System for Rodent Models and Comparison to Human Liver Pathology

Background and aims

The recently developed histological scoring system for non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) by the NASH Clinical Research Network (NASH-CRN) has been widely used in clinical settings, but is increasingly employed in preclinical research as well. However, it has not been systematically analyzed whether the human scoring system can directly be converted to preclinical rodent models. To analyze this, we systematically compared human NAFLD liver pathology, using human liver biopsies, with liver pathology of several NAFLD mouse models. Based upon the features pertaining to mouse NAFLD, we aimed at establishing a modified generic scoring system that is applicable to broad spectrum of rodent models.

Methods

The histopathology of NAFLD was analyzed in several different mouse models of NAFLD to define generic criteria for histological assessment (preclinical scoring system). For validation of this scoring system, 36 slides of mouse livers, covering the whole spectrum of NAFLD, were blindly analyzed by ten observers. Additionally, the livers were blindly scored by one observer during two separate assessments longer than 3 months apart.

Results

The criteria macrovesicular steatosis, microvesicular steatosis, hepatocellular hypertrophy, inflammation and fibrosis were generally applicable to rodent NAFLD. The inter-observer reproducibility (evaluated using the Intraclass Correlation Coefficient) between the ten observers was high for the analysis of macrovesicular steatosis and microvesicular steatosis (ICC = 0.784 and 0.776, all p<0.001, respectively) and moderate for the analysis of hypertrophy and inflammation (ICC = 0.685 and 0.650, all p<0.001, respectively). The intra-observer reproducibility between the different observations of one observer was high for the analysis of macrovesicular steatosis, microvesicular steatosis and hypertrophy (ICC = 0.871, 0.871 and 0.896, all p<0.001, respectively) and very high for the analysis of inflammation (ICC = 0.931, p<0.001).

Conclusions

We established a simple NAFLD scoring system with high reproducibility that is applicable for different rodent models and for all stages of NAFLD etiology.     

Concordance in a World without a Gold Standard: A New Non-Invasive Methodology for Improving Accuracy of Fibrosis Markers

Background

Assessing liver fibrosis is traditionally performed by biopsy, an imperfect gold standard. Non-invasive techniques, liver stiffness measurements (LSM) and biomarkers [FibroTest® (FT)], are widely used in countries where they are available. The aim was to identify factors associated with LSM accuracy using FT as a non-invasive endpoint and vice versa.

Methods

The proof of concept was taken using the manufacturers recommendations for excluding patients at high risk of false negative/positive. The hypothesis was that the concordance between LSM and FT, would be improved by excluding high-risk patients. Thereafter, the impact of potential variability factors was assessed by the same methods. Liver biopsy and independent endpoints were used to validate the results.

Results

Applying manufacturers'' recommendations in 2,004 patients increased the strength of concordance between LSM and FT (P<0.00001). Among the 1,338 patients satisfying recommendations, the methodology identified a significant LSM operator effect (P = 0.001) and the following variability factors (all P<0.01), related to LSM: male gender, older age, and NAFLD as a cause of liver disease. Biopsy confirmed in 391 patients these results.

Conclusion

This study has validated the concept of using the strength of concordance between non-invasive estimates of liver fibrosis for the identification of factors associated with variability and precautions of use.     

Hemostatic Dysfunction Is Increased in Patients with Hepatosplenic Schistosomiasis Mansoni and Advanced Periportal Fibrosis

Background

Schistosomiasis mansoni is an endemic parasitic disease and a public health problem in Northeast Brazil. In some patients, hepatic abnormalities lead to periportal fibrosis and result in the most severe clinical form, hepatosplenic schistosomiasis. This study aimed to evaluate whether abnormal blood coagulation and liver function tests in patients with hepatosplenic schistosomiasis (n = 55) correlate with the severity of their periportal fibrosis.

Methodology/Principal Findings

Blood samples were used for liver function tests, hemogram and prothrombin time (International Normalized Ratio, INR). The blood coagulation factors (II, VII, VIII, IX and X), protein C and antithrombin IIa (ATIIa), plasminogen activator inhibitor 1 (PAI-1) and D-dimer were measured by photometry or enzyme linked immunosorbent assay. Hyperfibrinolysis was defined on the basis of PAI-1 levels and a D-dimer concentration greater than a standard cut-off of 483 ng/mL. Standard liver function tests were all abnormal in the patient group compared to healthy controls (n = 29), including raised serum transaminases (p<0.001) and lower levels of albumin (p = 0.0156). Platelet counts were 50% lower in patients, while for coagulation factors there was a 40% increase in the INR (p<0.001) and reduced levels of Factor VII and protein C in patients compared to the controls (both p<0.001). Additionally, patients with more advanced fibrosis (n = 38) had lower levels of protein C compared to those with only central fibrosis (p = 0.0124). The concentration of plasma PAI-1 in patients was one-third that of the control group (p<0.001), and D-dimer levels 2.2 times higher (p<0.001) with 13 of the 55 patients having levels above the cut-off.

Conclusion/Significance

This study confirms that hemostatic abnormalities are associated with reduced liver function and increased liver fibrosis. Of note was the finding that a quarter of patients with hepatosplenic schistosomiasis and advanced periportal fibrosis have hyperfibrinolysis, as judged by excessive levels of D-dimer, which may predispose them to gastrointestinal bleeding.     

Continuous Grading of Early Fibrosis in NAFLD Using Label-Free Imaging: A Proof-of-Concept Study

Background and Aims

Early detection of fibrosis is important in identifying individuals at risk for advanced liver disease in non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). We tested whether second-harmonic generation (SHG) and coherent anti-Stokes Raman scattering (CARS) microscopy, detecting fibrillar collagen and fat in a label-free manner, might allow automated and sensitive quantification of early fibrosis in NAFLD.

Methods

We analyzed 32 surgical biopsies from patients covering histological fibrosis stages 0–4, using multimodal label-free microscopy. Native samples were visualized by SHG and CARS imaging for detecting fibrillar collagen and fat. Furthermore, we developed a method for quantitative assessment of early fibrosis using automated analysis of SHG signals.

Results

We found that the SHG mean signal intensity correlated well with fibrosis stage and the mean CARS signal intensity with liver fat. Little overlap in SHG signal intensities between fibrosis stages 0 and 1 was observed. A specific fibrillar SHG signal was detected in the liver parenchyma outside portal areas in all samples histologically classified as having no fibrosis. This signal correlated with immunohistochemical location of fibrillar collagens I and III.

Conclusions

This study demonstrates that label-free SHG imaging detects fibrillar collagen deposition in NAFLD more sensitively than routine histological staging and enables observer-independent quantification of early fibrosis in NAFLD with continuous grading.     

Non-Invasive Evaluation of Hepatic Fibrosis: The Diagnostic Performance of Magnetic Resonance Elastography in Patients with Viral Hepatitis B or C

Purpose

To compare the accuracy of magnetic resonance elastography (MRE) with that of aspartate aminotransferase-to-platelet ratio index (APRI) for estimating the stage of hepatic fibrosis in patients with chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) or chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection.

Materials and Methods

We retrospectively enrolled 160 patients with chronic hepatitis and 25 healthy living liver donors. Fibrosis stage (METAVIR, F0 to F4) was determined histopathologically for all patients. APRI was recorded at the time of histopathologic examination and liver stiffness values were measured on MRE quantitative stiffness maps. The cutoff values, sensitivity, and specificity of MRE and APRI for each fibrosis stage were determined using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis.

Results

MRE had a significantly greater area under the ROC curve than APRI score for discriminating among METAVIR stages F2-F4. Using a cutoff value of 2.80 kPa, MRE had a sensitivity of 94.4% and a specificity of 97.8% for detecting significant fibrosis (≥F2). There were no significant differences in fibrosis stage between patients with HBV and those with HCV infection. For ≥F2, the cutoffs were 2.47 kPa (100% sensitivity), 2.80 kP (maximum sum of sensitivity and specificity), and 3.70 kPa (100% specificity).

Conclusions

MRE is a more accurate modality than APRI for detecting significant fibrosis in patients with chronic HBV or HCV infection. Antiviral treatment should be considered in patients with liver stiffness values ≥ 2.8 kPa.     

Limited Utility of ITPA Deficiency to Predict Early Anemia in HCV Patients with Advanced Fibrosis Receiving Telaprevir

Background

Severe anemia is a common side effect of Pegylated Interferon + Ribavirin (PR) and Telaprevir (TVR) in hepatitis C virus (HCV) genotype 1 patients with advanced fibrosis or cirrhosis (F3–F4). Inosine triphosphatase (ITPA) genetic variants are associated with RBV- induced anemia and dose reduction.

Aim

To test the association of ITPA polymorphisms rs1127354 and rs7270101 with hemoglobin (Hb) decline, need for RBV dose reduction (RBV DR), erythropoietin (EPO) support and blood transfusions during the first 12 weeks of TVR triple therapy.

Materials and Methods

69 consecutive HCV-1 patients (mean age 57 years) with F3-F4 who received PR and TVR were genotyped for ITPA polymorphisms rs1127354 and rs7270101. Estimated ITPA deficiency was graded on severity (0–3, no deficiency/mild/moderate/severe).

Results

ITPA deficiency was absent in 48 patients (70%), mild in 12 (17%) and moderate in 9 patients (13%). Mean week 4 Hb decline was higher in non ITPA deficient patients (3,85 g/dL) than in mildly or moderately ITPA deficient patients (3,07 g/dL and 1,67 g/dL, p<0.0001). Grade 3–4 anemia developed in 81% non ITPA deficient patients versus 67% mild deficient and 55% moderate deficient patients (p = ns). Grade of ITPA deficiency was not associated with RbvDR (no deficiency: 60%, mild: 58%, moderate: 67%; p = ns), EPO use (no deficiency: 65%, mild: 58%, moderate:56%; p = ns) or need for blood transfusion (no deficiency: 27%, mild: 17%, moderate: 33%; p = ns).

Conclusions

In patients with F3–F4 chronic hepatitis C receiving TVR based therapy, ITPA genotype does not impact on the management of early anemia.     

A Non-Invasive Method to Assess Cerebral Perfusion Pressure in Geriatric Patients with Suspected Cerebrovascular Disease

Background

Cerebral perfusion pressure (CPP) can adversely impact cerebrovascular hemodynamics but cannot be practically measured in most clinical settings. Here, we aimed to establish a representative mathematical model for CPP in geriatric patients with suspected cerebrovascular disease.

Methods

A total of 100 patients (54 males and 46 females between 60–80 years of age) with suspected cerebrovascular disease and no obvious cerebrovascular stenosis were selected for invasive CPP monitoring via catheterization of the middle segment of the common carotid arteries and openings of the vertebral arteries bilaterally. Curves were function-fitted using MATLAB 7.0, and data was statistically processed by SPSS 20.0.

Results

MATLAB 7.0 constructed eighth-order Fourier functions that fit all recorded CPP curves. Since the coefficients of the 100 functions were significantly different, all functions were standardized to derive one representative function. By manipulating the heart rate and maximum/minimum CPP of the representative function, estimated CPP curves can be constructed for patients with differing heart rates, intracranial pressures (ICPs) and blood pressures.

Conclusions

CPP can be well-modeled through an eighth-order Fourier function that can be constructed from a patient’s brachial artery blood pressure (BABP), ICP and heart rate. This function is representative of geriatric patients with cerebrovascular disease and can be used in the future study of cerebral hemodynamics.     

Non-Invasive Evaluation of Cystic Fibrosis Related Liver Disease in Adults with ARFI, Transient Elastography and Different Fibrosis Scores

Background

Cystic fibrosis-related liver disease (CFLD) is present in up to 30% of cystic fibrosis patients and can result in progressive liver failure. Diagnosis of CFLD is challenging. Non-invasive methods for staging of liver fibrosis display an interesting diagnostic approach for CFLD detection.

Aim

We evaluated transient elastography (TE), acoustic radiation force impulse imaging (ARFI), and fibrosis indices for CFLD detection.

Methods

TE and ARFI were performed in 55 adult CF patients. In addition, AST/Platelets-Ratio-Index (APRI), and Forns'' score were calculated. Healthy probands and patients with alcoholic liver cirrhosis served as controls.

Results

Fourteen CF patients met CFLD criteria, six had liver cirrhosis. Elastography acquisition was successful in >89% of cases. Non-cirrhotic CFLD individuals showed elastography values similar to CF patients without liver involvement. Cases with liver cirrhosis differed significantly from other CFLD patients (ARFI: 1.49 vs. 1.13 m/s; p = 0.031; TE: 7.95 vs. 4.16 kPa; p = 0.020) and had significantly lower results than individuals with alcoholic liver cirrhosis (ARFI: 1.49 vs. 2.99 m/s; p = 0.002). APRI showed the best diagnostic performance for CFLD detection (AUROC 0.815; sensitivity 85.7%, specificity 70.7%).

Conclusions

ARFI, TE, and laboratory based fibrosis indices correlate with each other and reliably detect CFLD related liver cirrhosis in adult CF patients. CF specific cut-off values for cirrhosis in adults are lower than in alcoholic cirrhosis.     

Progression of Liver Fibrosis in HIV/HCV Co-Infection: A Comparison between Non-Invasive Assessment Methods and Liver Biopsy

Objectives

To evaluate the diagnostic performance of seven non-invasive tests (NITs) of liver fibrosis and to assess fibrosis progression over time in HIV/HCV co-infected patients.

Methods

Transient elastography (TE) and six blood tests were compared to histopathological fibrosis stage (METAVIR). Participants were followed over three years with NITs at yearly intervals.

Results

Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) for significant fibrosis (> = F2) in 105 participants was highest for TE (0.85), followed by FIB-4 (0.77), ELF-Test (0.77), APRI (0.76), Fibrotest (0.75), hyaluronic acid (0.70), and Hepascore (0.68). AUROC for cirrhosis (F4) was 0.97 for TE followed by FIB-4 (0.91), APRI (0.89), Fibrotest (0.84), Hepascore (0.82), ELF-Test (0.82), and hyaluronic acid (0.79). A three year follow-up was completed by 87 participants, all on antiretroviral therapy and in 20 patients who completed HCV treatment (9 with sustained virologic response). TE, APRI and Fibrotest did not significantly change during follow-up. There was weak evidence for an increase of FIB-4 (mean increase: 0.22, p = 0.07). 42 participants had a second liver biopsy: Among 38 participants with F0-F3 at baseline, 10 were progessors (1-stage increase in fibrosis, 8 participants; 2-stage, 1; 3-stage, 1). Among progressors, mean increase in TE was 3.35 kPa, in APRI 0.36, and in FIB-4 0.75. Fibrotest results did not change over 3 years.

Conclusion

TE was the best NIT for liver fibrosis staging in HIV/HCV co-infected patients. APRI-Score, FIB-4 Index, Fibrotest, and ELF-Test were less reliable. Routinely available APRI and FIB-4 performed as good as more expensive tests. NITs did not change significantly during a follow-up of three years, suggesting slow liver disease progression in a majority of HIV/HCV co-infected persons on antiretroviral therapy.     

Impact of Type 2 Diabetes on Nonalcoholic Steatohepatitis and Advanced Fibrosis in Patients with Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease

Objective: Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) is a risk factor for nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). The aim of this study was to investigate the effect of T2DM on nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) and advanced fibrosis.Methods: A total of 221 NAFLD patients who had undergone a liver biopsy were included in this study. Subjects were divided into a non-T2DM group and a T2DM group based on glycemic control. NASH was diagnosed by the joint presence of steatosis, ballooning, and lobular inflammation. The steatosis, activity, and fibrosis (SAF) score and NAFLD activity score (NAS) were used to evaluate the severity of NAFLD. The severity of liver fibrosis was evaluated based on the fibrosis stage.Results: The total percentages of NASH and advanced fibrosis in this study were 95.0% and 50.2%, respectively. The percentages of NASH and advanced fibrosis in NAFLD patients with T2DM were 96.1% and 56.5%, respectively, which were higher than those in the non-T2DM group. SAF score (especially activity and fibrosis stage) and NAS (especially ballooning) were higher in NAFLD patients with T2DM than in NAFLD patients without T2DM. Glycemic control and insulin resistance were positively associated with SAF, NAS, and fibrosis stage. Additionally, T2DM elevated the risk of a high NAS and advanced fibrosis.Conclusion: T2DM increases the risk of serious NASH and advanced fibrosis in patients with NAFLD. Liver biopsy can be performed in NAFLD patients with T2DM to confirm the stage of NAFLD. Screening of NASH and advanced fibrosis in NAFLD patients with T2DM is needed.Abbreviations: ALT = alanine aminotransferase; APO = apolipoprotein; AST = aspartate aminotransferase; BMI = body mass index; CI = confidence interval; FPG = fasting plasma glucose; GGT = gamma-glutamyl transferase; HbA1c = hemoglobin A1c; HDL-c = high-density-lipoprotein cholesterol; ¹H-MRS = proton magnetic resonance spectroscopy; HOMA-IR = homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance; 2hPG = postprandial plasma glucose at 2 hours; LDL-c = low-density-lipoprotein cholesterol; LFC = liver fat content; NAFLD = nonalcoholic fatty liver disease; NAS = NAFLD activity score; NASH = nonalcoholic steatohepatitis; OGTT = oral glucose tolerance test; OR = odds ratio; T2DM = type 2 diabetes mellitus; TC = total cholesterol; TG = triglyceride; SAF = steatosis, activity, and fibrosis; US-FLI = ultrasonographic fatty liver indicator     

A New Method to Improve the Clinical Evaluation of Cystic Fibrosis Patients by Mucus Viscoelastic Properties

In cystic fibrosis (CF) patients airways mucus shows an increased viscoelasticity due to the concentration of high molecular weight components. Such mucus thickening eventually leads to bacterial overgrowth and prevents mucus clearance. The altered rheological behavior of mucus results in chronic lung infection and inflammation, which causes most of the cases of morbidity and mortality, although the cystic fibrosis complications affect other organs as well. Here, we present a quantitative study on the correlation between cystic fibrosis mucus viscoelasticity and patients clinical status. In particular, a new diagnostic parameter based on the correlation between CF sputum viscoelastic properties and the severity of the disease, expressed in terms of FEV1 and bacterial colonization, was developed. By using principal component analysis, we show that the types of colonization and FEV1 classes are significantly correlated to the elastic modulus, and that the latter can be used for CF severity classification with a high predictive efficiency (88%). The data presented here show that the elastic modulus of airways mucus, given the high predictive efficiency, could be used as a new clinical parameter in the prognostic evaluation of cystic fibrosis.     

Performance of Two HCV RNA Assays during Protease Inhibitor-Based Triple Therapy in Patients with Advanced Liver Fibrosis and Cirrhosis

Introduction

On-treatment HCV RNA measurements are crucial for the prediction of a sustained virological response (SVR) and to determine treatment futility during protease inhibitor-based triple therapies. In patients with advanced liver disease an accurate risk/benefit calculation based on reliable HCV RNA results can reduce the number of adverse events. However, the different available HCV RNA assays vary in their diagnostic performance.

Aim

To investigate the clinical relevance of concordant and discordant results of two HCV RNA assays during triple therapy with boceprevir and telaprevir in patients with advanced liver fibrosis/cirrhosis.

Methods

We collected on-treatment samples of 191 patients with advanced liver fibrosis/cirrhosis treated at four European centers for testing with the Abbott RealTime (ART) and COBAS AmpliPrep/COBAS TaqMan HCV v2.0 (CTM) assays.

Results

Discordant test results for HCV RNA detectability were observed in 23% at week 4, 17% at week 8/12 and 9% at week 24 on-treatment. The ART detected HCV RNA in 41% of week 4 samples tested negative by the CTM. However, the positive predictive value of an undetectable week 4 result for SVR was similar for both assays (80% and 82%). Discordance was also found for application of stopping rules. In 27% of patients who met stopping rules by CTM the ART measured levels below the respective cut-offs of 100 and 1000 IU/ml, respectively, which would have resulted in treatment continuation. In contrast, in nine patients with negative HCV RNA by CTM at week 24 treatment would have been discontinued due to detectable residual HCV RNA by the ART assay. Importantly, only 4 of these patients failed to achieve SVR.

Conclusion

Application of stopping rules determined in approval studies by one assay to other HCV RNA assays in clinical practice may lead to over and undertreatment in a significant number of patients undergoing protease inhibitor-based triple therapy.     

A Scoring System for Capnogram Biofeedback: Preliminary Findings

Labored breathing and irregularities in the breathing pattern may be assessed by capnography; and, an abnormal capnogram wave form may often be rectified with the help of capnogram biofeedback. Clinical experience suggests this may relieve dyspnea but to what degree, for how long and for what conditions have not been determined; the issue is complex and much remains to be discovered. The more that can be learned about the various capnogram irregularities, the more effectively such information will guide us in therapy and research. To this end a 15-category capnogram disordered breathing scale (Landis CDBS) was developed to provide a measure of disordered breathing. The CDBS score is the ratio of the total number of abnormal capnogram forms to the total number of capnogram configurations in the test sample, expressed as a percentage. The total score as well as an accounting of each abnormal scoring category was tabulated for each subject. In this retrospective and preliminary study, findings of a normal comparison group were compared with capnogram data for 3 clinical groups: asthma, anxiety/panic attacks, and patients with diverse stress-related somatic symptoms. Mean CDBS scores were: a low 14% for the Normal group compared with 64% for the Asthma group; 66% for the Anxiety patients; and 47% for the Somatic group. Each group was characterized by distinctive clusters of capnogram abnormalities. As there are methodological limitations to this small group study, the findings require validation. However, as an introduction to the scoring system and because of its potential clinical value we present this paper now.     

Derivation and Validation of a Scoring System to Identify Patients with Bacteremia and Hematological Malignancies at Higher Risk for Mortality

Background

The aim of this study was to develop and validate a reliable clinical prediction rule that could be employed to identify patients at higher likelihood of mortality among those with hematological malignancies (HMs) and bacterial bloodstream infections (BBSIs).

Methods and Findings

We conducted a retrospective cohort study in nine Italian hematological units. The derivation cohort consisted of adult patients with BBSI and HMs admitted to the Catholic University Hospital (Rome) between January 2002 and December 2008. Survivors and nonsurvivors were compared to identify predictors of 30-day mortality. The validation cohort consisted of patients hospitalized with BBSI and HMs who were admitted in 8 other Italian hematological units between January 2009 and December 2010. The inclusion and exclusion criteria were identical for both cohorts, with type and stage of HMs used as matching criteria. In the derivation set (247 episodes), the multivariate analysis yielded the following significant mortality-related risk factors acute renal failure (Odds Ratio [OR] 6.44, Confidential Interval [CI], 2.36–17.57, P<0.001); severe neutropenia (absolute neutrophil count <100/mm³) (OR 4.38, CI, 2.04–9.43, P<0.001); nosocomial infection (OR, 3.73, CI, 1.36–10.22, P = 0.01); age ≥65 years (OR, 3.42, CI, 1.49–7.80, P = 0.003); and Charlson Comorbidity Index ≥4 (OR, 3.01, CI 1.36–6.65, P = 0.006). The variables unable to be evaluated at that time (for example, prolonged neutropenia) were not included in the final logistic model. The equal-weight risk score model, which assigned 1 point to each risk factor, yielded good-excellent discrimination in both cohorts, with areas under the receiver operating curve of 0.83 versus 0.93 (derivation versus validation) and good calibration (Hosmer-Lemshow P = 0.16 versus 0.75).

Conclusions

The risk index accurately identifies patients with HMs and BBSIs at high risk for mortality; a better initial predictive approach may yield better therapeutic decisions for these patients, with an eventual reduction in mortality.     

Structural and Functional Brain Changes beyond Visual System in Patients with Advanced Glaucoma

In order to test the hypothesis that in primary open angle glaucoma (POAG), an important cause of irreversible blindness, a spreading of neurodegeneration occurs through the brain, we performed multimodal MRI and subsequent whole-brain explorative voxelwise analyses in 13 advanced POAG patients and 12 age-matched normal controls (NC). Altered integrity (decreased fractional anisotropy or increased diffusivities) of white matter (WM) tracts was found not only along the visual pathway of POAG but also in nonvisual WM tracts (superior longitudinal fascicle, anterior thalamic radiation, corticospinal tract, middle cerebellar peduncle). POAG patients also showed brain atrophy in both visual cortex and other distant grey matter (GM) regions (frontoparietal cortex, hippocampi and cerebellar cortex), decreased functional connectivity (FC) in visual, working memory and dorsal attention networks and increased FC in visual and executive networks. In POAG, abnormalities in structure and FC within and outside visual system correlated with visual field parameters in the poorer performing eyes, thus emphasizing their clinical relevance. Altogether, this represents evidence that a vision disorder such as POAG can be considered a widespread neurodegenerative condition.     

A New Scoring System for Spontaneous Closure Prediction of Perimembranous Ventricular Septal Defects in Children

Background

Perimembranous ventricular septal defect (PMVSD) is a congenital heart aberration, which is surgically treated by patch or device closure, but also can heal without operation as spontaneous closure (SC).

Methods

We analyzed data from 1873 PMVSD patients admitted to our hospital during September 2001 and December 2009, in order to establish a Cox regression model for PMVSD SC probability prediction (derivative cohort). Initial contact age, ventricular septal defect (VSD) diameter, shunt flow, aneurysmal tissue of the ventricular membranous septum (ATVMS) development, associated complications, and left ventricular end-diastolic dimension (LVDD) were analyzed for correlations with SC. The derived scoring system based on the coefficients of the model was developed and applied to another cohort with 382 PMVSD patients to evaluate the validity for SC probability forecast (validation cohort).

Results

Multivariate Cox regression analysis revealed that SC of PMVSD was associated with age at first contact, defect size, diffuse shunt flow, ATVMS formation, associated complication, as well as increased LVDD, which were used to establish a new scoring system. The area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve of our predictive scaling was 0.831 (95% CI 0.804–0.858, p<0.001) in the derivative cohort. The scoring system also accurately predicted SC with an area under the ROC curve of 0.863 (95% CI 0.785–0.941, p<0.001) in the validation cohort.

Conclusion

Our scoring system using factors affecting SC can predict the probability of SC in PMVSD patients.