Beyond a Dichotomous View of the Concepts of ‘Sex’ and ‘Gender’ Focus Group Discussions among Gender Researchers at a Medical Faculty

Introduction

The concepts of ‘sex’ and ‘gender’ are both of vital importance in medicine and health sciences. However, the meaning of these concepts has seldom been discussed in the medical literature. The aim of this study was to explore what the concepts of ‘sex’ and ‘gender’ meant for gender researchers based in a medical faculty.

Methods

Sixteen researchers took part in focus group discussions. The analysis was performed in several steps. The participating researchers read the text and discussed ideas for analysis in national and international workshops. The data were analysed using qualitative content analysis. The authors performed independent preliminary analyses, which were further developed and intensively discussed between the authors.

Results

The analysis of meanings of the concepts of ‘sex’ and ‘gender’ for gender researchers based in a medical faculty resulted in three categories; “Sex as more than biology”, with the subcategories ‘sex’ is not simply biological, ‘sex’ as classification, and ‘sex’ as fluid and changeable; ”Gender as a multiplicity of power-related constructions”, with the subcategories: ‘gender’ as constructions, ‘gender’ power dimensions, and ‘gender’ as doing femininities and masculinities; “Sex and gender as interwoven”, with the subcategories: ‘sex’ and ‘gender’ as inseparable and embodying ‘sex’ and ‘gender’.

Conclusions

Gender researchers within medicine pointed out the importance of looking beyond a dichotomous view of the concepts of ‘sex’ and ‘gender’. The perception of the concepts was that ‘sex’ and ‘gender’ were intertwined. Further research is needed to explore how ‘sex’ and ‘gender’ interact.     

Mortality trajectory analysis reveals the drivers of sex-specific epidemiology in natural wildlife–disease interactions

In animal populations, males are commonly more susceptible to disease-induced mortality than females. However, three competing mechanisms can cause this sex bias: weak males may simultaneously be more prone to exposure to infection and mortality; being ‘male’ may be an imperfect proxy for the underlying driver of disease-induced mortality; or males may experience increased severity of disease-induced effects compared with females. Here, we infer the drivers of sex-specific epidemiology by decomposing fixed mortality rates into mortality trajectories and comparing their parameters. We applied Bayesian survival trajectory analysis to a 22-year longitudinal study of a population of badgers (Meles meles) naturally infected with bovine tuberculosis (bTB). At the point of infection, infected male and female badgers had equal mortality risk, refuting the hypothesis that acquisition of infection occurs in males with coincidentally high mortality. Males and females exhibited similar levels of heterogeneity in mortality risk, refuting the hypothesis that maleness is only a proxy for disease susceptibility. Instead, sex differences were caused by a more rapid increase in male mortality rates following infection. Males are indeed more susceptible to bTB, probably due to immunological differences between the sexes. We recommend this mortality trajectory approach for the study of infection in animal populations.     

Temporal Characteristics of Online Syntactic Sentence Planning: An Event-Related Potential Study

During sentence production, linguistic information (semantics, syntax, phonology) of words is retrieved and assembled into a meaningful utterance. There is still debate on how we assemble single words into more complex syntactic structures such as noun phrases or sentences. In the present study, event-related potentials (ERPs) were used to investigate the time course of syntactic planning. Thirty-three volunteers described visually animated scenes using naming formats varying in syntactic complexity: from simple words (‘W’, e.g., “triangle”, “red”, “square”, “green”, “to fly towards”), to noun phrases (‘NP’, e.g., “the red triangle”, “the green square”, “to fly towards”), to a sentence (‘S’, e.g., “The red triangle flies towards the green square.”). Behaviourally, we observed an increase in errors and corrections with increasing syntactic complexity, indicating a successful experimental manipulation. In the ERPs following scene onset, syntactic complexity variations were found in a P300-like component (‘S’/‘NP’>‘W’) and a fronto-central negativity (linear increase with syntactic complexity). In addition, the scene could display two actions - unpredictable for the participant, as the disambiguation occurred only later in the animation. Time-locked to the moment of visual disambiguation of the action and thus the verb, we observed another P300 component (‘S’>‘NP’/‘W’). The data show for the first time evidence of sensitivity to syntactic planning within the P300 time window, time-locked to visual events critical of syntactic planning. We discuss the findings in the light of current syntactic planning views.     

Pre-Analytical Sample Quality: Metabolite Ratios as an Intrinsic Marker for Prolonged Room Temperature Exposure of Serum Samples

Advances in the “omics” field bring about the need for a high number of good quality samples. Many omics studies take advantage of biobanked samples to meet this need. Most of the laboratory errors occur in the pre-analytical phase. Therefore evidence-based standard operating procedures for the pre-analytical phase as well as markers to distinguish between ‘good’ and ‘bad’ quality samples taking into account the desired downstream analysis are urgently needed. We studied concentration changes of metabolites in serum samples due to pre-storage handling conditions as well as due to repeated freeze-thaw cycles. We collected fasting serum samples and subjected aliquots to up to four freeze-thaw cycles and to pre-storage handling delays of 12, 24 and 36 hours at room temperature (RT) and on wet and dry ice. For each treated aliquot, we quantified 127 metabolites through a targeted metabolomics approach. We found a clear signature of degradation in samples kept at RT. Storage on wet ice led to less pronounced concentration changes. 24 metabolites showed significant concentration changes at RT. In 22 of these, changes were already visible after only 12 hours of storage delay. Especially pronounced were increases in lysophosphatidylcholines and decreases in phosphatidylcholines. We showed that the ratio between the concentrations of these molecule classes could serve as a measure to distinguish between ‘good’ and ‘bad’ quality samples in our study. In contrast, we found quite stable metabolite concentrations during up to four freeze-thaw cycles. We concluded that pre-analytical RT handling of serum samples should be strictly avoided and serum samples should always be handled on wet ice or in cooling devices after centrifugation. Moreover, serum samples should be frozen at or below -80°C as soon as possible after centrifugation.     

Genetic Evolution of Mycobacterium bovis Causing Tuberculosis in Livestock and Wildlife in France since 1978

To study the dynamics of bovine tuberculosis (bTB) in France, 4,654 M. bovis strains isolated mainly from livestock and wildlife since 1978 were characterized by spoligotyping and MLVA based on MIRU-VNTR. In our study spoligotyping allowed the discrimination of 176 types although 3 spoligotypes are predominant and account for more than half of the total strain population: SB0120 (26%), SB0134 (11%) and SB0121 (6%). In addition, 11% of the isolates, principally from Southern France, showing close spoligotypes and MIRU-VNTR types have been gathered in a family designated as the “F4-family”. MLVA typing allowed extensive discrimination, particularly for strains with predominant spoligotypes, with a total of 498 genotypes, several of which were highly regionalized. The similarity of the strains’ genetic relationships based on spoligotyping and MIRU-VNTR markers supports the co-existence of different clonal populations within the French M. bovis population. A genetic evolution of the strains was observed both geographically and in time. Indeed, as a result of the reduction of bTB due to the national control campaigns, a large reduction of the strains’ genetic variability took place in the last ten years. However, in the regions were bTB is highly prevalent at present, cases in both livestock and in wildlife are due to the spread of unique local genotype profiles. Our results show that the highly discriminating genotyping tools used in this study for molecular studies of bTB are useful for addressing pending questions, which would lead to a better insight into the epidemiology of the disease, and for finding proper solutions for its sustainable control in France.     

Tail Biting in Pigs: Blood Serotonin and Fearfulness as Pieces of the Puzzle?

Tail biting in pigs is a widespread problem in intensive pig farming. The tendency to develop this damaging behaviour has been suggested to relate to serotonergic functioning and personality characteristics of pigs. We investigated whether tail biting in pigs can be associated with blood serotonin and with their behavioural and physiological responses to novelty. Pigs (n = 480) were born in conventional farrowing pens and after weaning at four weeks of age they were either housed barren (B) or in straw-enriched (E) pens. Individual pigs were exposed to a back test and novel environment test before weaning, and after weaning to a novel object (i.e. bucket) test in an unfamiliar arena. A Principal Component Analysis on behaviours during the tests and salivary cortisol (novel object test only) revealed five factors for both housing systems, labeled ‘Early life exploration’, ‘Near bucket’, ‘Cortisol’, ‘Vocalizations & standing alert’, and ‘Back test activity’. Blood samples were taken at 8, 9 and 22 weeks of age to determine blood platelet serotonin. In different phases of life, pigs were classified as tail biter/non-tail biter based on tail biting behaviour, and as victim/non-victim based on tail wounds. A combination of both classifications resulted in four pig types: biters, victims, biter/victims, and neutrals. Generally, only in phases of life during which pigs were classified as tail biters, they seemed to have lower blood platelet serotonin storage and higher blood platelet uptake velocities. Victims also seemed to have lower blood serotonin storage. Additionally, in B housing, tail biters seemed to consistently have lower scores of the factor ‘Near bucket’, possibly indicating a higher fearfulness in tail biters. Further research is needed to elucidate the nature of the relationship between peripheral 5-HT, fearfulness and tail biting, and to develop successful strategies and interventions to prevent and reduce tail biting.     

The Potential for Transmission of BCG from Orally Vaccinated White-Tailed Deer (Odocoileus virginianus) to Cattle (Bos taurus) through a Contaminated Environment: Experimental Findings

White-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) experimentally infected with a virulent strain of Mycobacterium bovis have been shown to transmit the bacterium to other deer and cattle (Bos taurus) by sharing of pen waste and feed. The risk of transmission of M. bovis bacille Calmette-Guerin (BCG) vaccine from orally vaccinated white-tailed deer to other deer and cattle, however, is not well understood. In order to evaluate this risk, we orally vaccinated 14 white-tailed deer with 1×10⁹ colony forming units BCG in lipid-formulated baits and housed them with nine non-vaccinated deer. Each day we exposed the same seven naïve cattle to pen space utilized by the deer to look for transmission between the two species. Before vaccination and every 60 days until the end of the study, we performed tuberculin skin testing on deer and cattle, as well as interferon-gamma testing in cattle, to detect cellular immune response to BCG exposure. At approximately 27 weeks all cattle and deer were euthanized and necropsied. None of the cattle converted on either caudal fold, comparative cervical tests, or interferon-gamma assay. None of the cattle were culture positive for BCG. Although there was immunological evidence that BCG transmission occurred from deer to deer, we were unable to detect immunological or microbiological evidence of transmission to cattle. This study suggests that the risk is likely to be low that BCG-vaccinated white-tailed deer would cause domestic cattle to react to the tuberculin skin test or interferon-gamma test through exposure to a BCG-contaminated environment.     

Methodological Deficits in Diagnostic Research Using ‘-Omics’ Technologies: Evaluation of the QUADOMICS Tool and Quality of Recently Published Studies

Background

QUADOMICS is an adaptation of QUADAS (a quality assessment tool for use in systematic reviews of diagnostic accuracy studies), which takes into account the particular challenges presented by ‘-omics’ based technologies. Our primary objective was to evaluate the applicability and consistency of QUADOMICS. Subsequently we evaluated and describe the methodological quality of a sample of recently published studies using the tool.

Methodology/Principal Findings

45‘-omics’- based diagnostic studies were identified by systematic search of Pubmed using suitable MeSH terms (“Genomics”, “Sensitivity and specificity”, “Diagnosis”). Three investigators independently assessed the quality of the articles using QUADOMICS and met to compare observations and generate a consensus. Consistency and applicability was assessed by comparing each reviewer''s original rating with the consensus. Methodological quality was described using the consensus rating. Agreement was above 80% for all three reviewers. Four items presented difficulties with application, mostly due to the lack of a clearly defined gold standard. Methodological quality of our sample was poor; studies met roughly half of the applied criteria (mean ± sd, 54.7±18.4%). Few studies were carried out in a population that mirrored the clinical situation in which the test would be used in practice, (6, 13.3%); none described patient recruitment sufficiently; and less than half described clinical and physiological factors that might influence the biomarker profile (20, 44.4%).

Conclusions

The QUADOMICS tool can consistently be applied to diagnostic ‘-omics’ studies presently published in biomedical journals. A substantial proportion of reports in this research field fail to address design issues that are fundamental to make inferences relevant for patient care.     

'Asking the Right Question'. A Comparison of Two Approaches to Gathering Data on 'Herbals' Use in Survey Based Studies

Background

Over the last decade academic interest in the prevalence and nature of herbal medicines use by pregnant women has increased significantly. Such data are usually collected by means of an administered questionnaire survey, however a key methodological limitation using this approach is the need to clearly define the scope of ‘herbals’ to be investigated. The majority of published studies in this area neither define ‘herbals’ nor provide a detailed checklist naming specific ‘herbals’ and CAM modalities, which limits inter-study comparison, generalisability and the potential for meta-analyses. The aim of this study was to compare the self-reported use of herbs, herbal medicines and herbal products using two different approaches implemented in succession.

Methods

Cross-sectional questionnaire surveys of women attending for their mid-trimester scan or attending the postnatal unit following live birth at the Royal Aberdeen Maternity Hospital, North-East Scotland. The questionnaire utilised two approaches to collect data on ‘herbals’ use, a single closed yes/no answer to the question “have you used herbs, herbal medicines and herbal products in the last three months”; and a request to tick which of a list of 40 ‘herbals’ they had used in the same time period.

Results

A total of 889 responses were obtained of which 4.3% (38) answered ‘yes’ to herbal use via the closed question. However, using the checklist 39% (350) of respondents reported the use of one or more specific ‘herbals’ (p<0.0001). The 312 respondents who reported ‘no’ to ‘herbals’ use via the closed question but “yes” via the checklist consumed a total of 20 different ‘herbals’ (median 1, interquartile range 1–2, range 1–6).

Conclusions

This study demonstrates that the use of a single closed question asking about the use of ‘herbals’, as frequently reported in published studies, may not yield valid data resulting in a gross underestimation of actual use.     

Estimating the Hidden Burden of Bovine Tuberculosis in Great Britain

The number of cattle herds placed under movement restrictions in Great Britain (GB) due to the suspected presence of bovine tuberculosis (bTB) has progressively increased over the past 25 years despite an intensive and costly test-and-slaughter control program. Around 38% of herds that clear movement restrictions experience a recurrent incident (breakdown) within 24 months, suggesting that infection may be persisting within herds. Reactivity to tuberculin, the basis of diagnostic testing, is dependent on the time from infection. Thus, testing efficiency varies between outbreaks, depending on weight of transmission and cannot be directly estimated. In this paper, we use Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) to parameterize two within-herd transmission models within a rigorous inferential framework. Previous within-herd models of bTB have relied on ad-hoc methods of parameterization and used a single model structure (SORI) where animals are assumed to become detectable by testing before they become infectious. We study such a conventional within-herd model of bTB and an alternative model, motivated by recent animal challenge studies, where there is no period of epidemiological latency before animals become infectious (SOR). Under both models we estimate that cattle-to-cattle transmission rates are non-linearly density dependent. The basic reproductive ratio for our conventional within-herd model, estimated for scenarios with no statutory controls, increases from 1.5 (0.26–4.9; 95% CI) in a herd of 30 cattle up to 4.9 (0.99–14.0) in a herd of 400. Under this model we estimate that 50% (33–67) of recurrent breakdowns in Britain can be attributed to infection missed by tuberculin testing. However this figure falls to 24% (11–42) of recurrent breakdowns under our alternative model. Under both models the estimated extrinsic force of infection increases with the burden of missed infection. Hence, improved herd-level testing is unlikely to reduce recurrence unless this extrinsic infectious pressure is simultaneously addressed.     

Characteristics of Attempted Suicide by Patients with Schizophrenia Compared with Those with Mood Disorders: A Case-Controlled Study in Northern Japan

Recent reports suggest a lifetime suicide risk for schizophrenia patients of approximately 5%. This figure is significantly higher than the general population suicide risk consequently, detection of those at risk is clinically important. This study was undertaken to define the characteristics of suicide attempts by schizophrenia patients compared with attempts by patients with mood disorders. All patients were diagnosed using the ICD-10 criteria. The study population comprised 65 patients with F2 disorders (schizophrenia, schizotypal and delusional disorders), i.e., “the F2 group”, and 94 patients with F3 disorders (mood disorders), i.e., “the F3 group”, who presented in the clinical setting of consultation-liaison psychiatry. The F2 group had a significantly younger mean age and significantly higher ratios of ‘past/present psychiatric treatment’ and ‘more than 3 months interruption of psychiatric treatment’. In contrast, the ratios of ‘physical disorder comorbidity’, ‘alcohol intake at suicide attempt’ and ‘suicide note left behind’ were significantly higher in the F3 group. The F2 group attempted suicide by significantly more serious methods. Furthermore, ‘hallucination-delusion’ was the most prevalent motive in the F2 group and was the only factor that showed a significant association with the seriousness of the method of suicide attempt (OR = 3.36, 95% CI: 1.05–11.33).     

Accumulation of cadmium in near-isogenic lines of durum wheat (Triticum turgidum L. var durum): the role of transpiration

Concentrations of cadmium in the grain of durum wheat (Triticum turgidum L. var durum) are often above the internationally acceptable limit of 0.2 mg kg⁻¹. Cultivars that vary in concentrations of cadmium in the grain have been identified but the physiology behind differential accumulation has not been determined. Three pairs of near-isogenic lines (isolines) of durum wheat that vary in aboveground cadmium accumulation (8982-TL ‘high’ and ‘low’, W9260-BC ‘high’ and ‘low’, and W9261-BG ‘high’ and ‘low’) were used to test the hypothesis that the greater amounts of cadmium in shoots of the ‘high’ isolines are correlated with greater volumes of water transpired. In general, cadmium content was positively correlated with transpiration only in the ‘low’ isolines. Although shoots of the ‘high’ isolines of W9260-BC and W9261-BG contained higher concentrations of cadmium than did their corresponding ‘low’ isolines, they did not transpire larger volumes of water. In addition, isolines of 8982-TL transpired less water than did the other pairs of isolines yet both ‘high’ and ‘low’ isolines of 8982-TL contained higher amounts of cadmium than did the other pairs. The difference between ‘high’ and ‘low’ isolines appears to be related to the relative contribution of transpiration to cadmium translocation to the shoot. Increased transpiration was associated with increased cadmium content in the ‘low’ isolines but in the ‘high’ isolines increased cadmium in the shoot occurred independently of the volume of water transpired.     

In situ analysis of epigenetic modifications in the chromatin of Brachypodium distachyon embryos

Epigenetic modifications of the chromatin structure are crucial for many biological processes and act on genes during the development and germination of seeds. The spatial distribution of 3 epigenetic markers, i.e. H4K5ac, H3K4me2 and H3K4me1 was investigated in ‘matured,’ ‘dry,’ ‘imbibed” and ‘germinating’ embryos of a model grass, Brachypodium. Our results indicate that the patterns of epigenetic modification differ in the various types of tissues of embryos that were analyzed. Such a tissue-specific manner of these modifications may be linked to the switch of the gene expression profiles in various organs of the developing embryo.     

Molecular Mechanisms,Thermodynamics, and Dissociation Kinetics of Knob-Hole Interactions in Fibrin

Polymerization of fibrin, the primary structural protein of blood clots and thrombi, occurs through binding of knobs ‘A’ and ‘B’ in the central nodule of fibrin monomer to complementary holes ‘a’ and ‘b’ in the γ- and β-nodules, respectively, of another monomer. We characterized the A:a and B:b knob-hole interactions under varying solution conditions using molecular dynamics simulations of the structural models of fibrin(ogen) fragment D complexed with synthetic peptides GPRP (knob ‘A’ mimetic) and GHRP (knob ‘B’ mimetic). The strength of A:a and B:b knob-hole complexes was roughly equal, decreasing with pulling force; however, the dissociation kinetics were sensitive to variations in acidity (pH 5–7) and temperature (T = 25–37 °C). There were similar structural changes in holes ‘a’ and ‘b’ during forced dissociation of the knob-hole complexes: elongation of loop I, stretching of the interior region, and translocation of the moveable flap. The disruption of the knob-hole interactions was not an “all-or-none” transition as it occurred through distinct two-step or single step pathways with or without intermediate states. The knob-hole bonds were stronger, tighter, and more brittle at pH 7 than at pH 5. The B:b knob-hole bonds were weaker, looser, and more compliant than the A:a knob-hole bonds at pH 7 but stronger, tighter, and less compliant at pH 5. Surprisingly, the knob-hole bonds were stronger, not weaker, at elevated temperature (T = 37 °C) compared with T = 25 °C due to the helix-to-coil transition in loop I that helps stabilize the bonds. These results provide detailed qualitative and quantitative characteristics underlying the most significant non-covalent interactions involved in fibrin polymerization.     

Morals Matter in Economic Games

Contrary to predictions from Expected Utility Theory and Game Theory, when making economic decisions in interpersonal situations, people take the interest of others into account and express various forms of solidarity, even in one-shot interactions with anonymous strangers. Research in other-regarding behavior is dominated by behavioral economical and evolutionary biological approaches. Psychological theory building, which addresses mental processes underlying other-regarding behavior, is rare. Based on Relational Models Theory (RMT, [1]) and Relationship Regulation Theory (RRT, [2]) it is proposed that moral motives influence individuals’ decision behavior in interpersonal situations via conscious and unconscious (automatic) processes. To test our propositions we developed the ‘Dyadic Solidarity Game’ and its solitary equivalent, the ‘Self-Insurance Game’. Four experiments, in which the moral motives “Unity” and “Proportionality” were manipulated, support the propositions made. First, it was shown that consciously activated moral motives (via framing of the overall goal of the experiment) and unconsciously activated moral motives (via subliminal priming) influence other-regarding behavior. Second, this influence was only found in interpersonal, not in solitary situations. Third, by combining the analyses of the two experimental games the extent to which participants apply the Golden Rule (“treat others how you wish to be treated”) could be established. Individuals with a “Unity” motive treated others like themselves, whereas individuals with a “Proportionality” motive gave others less then they gave themselves. The four experiments not only support the assumption that morals matter in economic games, they also deliver new insights in how morals matter in economic decision making.     

Estimation of the relative sensitivity of the comparative tuberculin skin test in tuberculous cattle herds subjected to depopulation

Bovine tuberculosis (bTB) is one of the most serious economic animal health problems affecting the cattle industry in Great Britain (GB), with incidence in cattle herds increasing since the mid-1980s. The single intradermal comparative cervical tuberculin (SICCT) test is the primary screening test in the bTB surveillance and control programme in GB and Ireland. The sensitivity (ability to detect infected cattle) of this test is central to the efficacy of the current testing regime, but most previous studies that have estimated test sensitivity (relative to the number of slaughtered cattle with visible lesions [VL] and/or positive culture results) lacked post-mortem data for SICCT test-negative cattle. The slaughter of entire herds ("whole herd slaughters" or "depopulations") that are infected by bTB are occasionally conducted in GB as a last-resort control measure to resolve intractable bTB herd breakdowns. These provide additional post-mortem data for SICCT test-negative cattle, allowing a rare opportunity to calculate the animal-level sensitivity of the test relative to the total number of SICCT test-positive and negative VL animals identified post-mortem (rSe). In this study, data were analysed from 16 whole herd slaughters (748 SICCT test-positive and 1031 SICCT test-negative cattle) conducted in GB between 1988 and 2010, using a Bayesian hierarchical model. The overall rSe estimate of the SICCT test at the severe interpretation was 85% (95% credible interval [CI]: 78-91%), and at standard interpretation was 81% (95% CI: 70-89%). These estimates are more robust than those previously reported in GB due to inclusion of post-mortem data from SICCT test-negative cattle.     

Conformational Preference of ‘CαNN’ Short Peptide Motif towards Recognition of Anions

Among several ‘anion binding motifs’, the recently described ‘C^αNN’ motif occurring in the loop regions preceding a helix, is conserved through evolution both in sequence and its conformation. To establish the significance of the conserved sequence and their intrinsic affinity for anions, a series of peptides containing the naturally occurring ‘C^αNN’ motif at the N-terminus of a designed helix, have been modeled and studied in a context free system using computational techniques. Appearance of a single interacting site with negative binding free-energy for both the sulfate and phosphate ions, as evidenced in docking experiments, establishes that the ‘C^αNN’ segment has an intrinsic affinity for anions. Molecular Dynamics (MD) simulation studies reveal that interaction with anion triggers a conformational switch from non-helical to helical state at the ‘C^αNN’ segment, which extends the length of the anchoring-helix by one turn at the N-terminus. Computational experiments substantiate the significance of sequence/structural context and justify the conserved nature of the ‘C^αNN’ sequence for anion recognition through “local” interaction.     

Predictive Habitat Modelling as a Tool to Assess the Change in Distribution and Extent of an OSPAR Priority Habitat under an Increased Ocean Temperature Scenario: Consequences for Marine Protected Area Networks and Management

The aims of this study were to determine the extent and distribution of an OSPAR priority habitat under current baseline ocean temperatures; to illustrate the prospect for habitat loss under a changing ocean temperature scenario; and to demonstrate the potential application of predictive habitat mapping in “future-proofing” conservation and biodiversity management.Maxent modelling and GIS environmental envelope analysis of the biogenic bed forming species, Modiolus modiolus was carried out. The Maxent model was tested and validated using 75%/25% training/test occurrence records and validated against two sampling biases (the whole study area and a 20km buffer). The model was compared to the envelope analysis and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (Area Under the curve; AUC) was evaluated.The performance of the Maxent model was rated as ‘good’ to ‘excellent’ on all replicated runs and low variation in the runs was recorded from the AUC values. The extent of “most suitable”, “less suitable” and “unsuitable” habitat was calculated for the baseline year (2009) and the projected increased ocean temperature scenarios (2030, 2050, 2080 and 2100). A loss of 100% of “most suitable” habitat was reported by 2080.Maintaining a suitable level of protection of marine habitats/species of conservation importance may require management of the decline and migration rather than maintenance of present extent. Methods applied in this study provide the initial application of a plausible “conservation management tool”.