Sagittal Abdominal Diameter Is an Independent Predictor of All-Cause and Cardiovascular Mortality in Incident Peritoneal Dialysis Patients

Backgrounds and Aims

Visceral fat has a crucial role in the development and progression of cardiovascular disease, the major cause of death in end-stage renal disease (ESRD). Although sagittal abdominal diameter (SAD), as an index of visceral fat, significantly correlated with mortality in the general population, the impact of SAD on clinical outcomes has never been explored in ESRD patients. Therefore, we sought to elucidate the prognostic value of SAD in incident peritoneal dialysis (PD) patients.

Methods

We prospectively determined SAD by lateral abdominal X-ray at PD initiation, and evaluated the association of SAD with all-cause and cardiovascular mortality in 418 incident PD patients.

Results

The mean SAD was 24.5±4.3 cm, and during a mean follow-up of 39.4 months, 97 patients (23.2%) died, and 49.4% of them died due to cardiovascular disease. SAD was a significant independent predictor of all-cause [3rd versus 1st tertile, HR (hazard ratio): 3.333, 95% CI (confidence interval): 1.514–7.388, P = 0.01; per 1 cm increase, HR: 1.071, 95% CI: 1.005–1.141, P = 0.03] and cardiovascular mortality (3rd versus 1st tertile, HR: 8.021, 95% CI: 1.994–32.273, P = 0.01; per 1 cm increase, HR: 1.106, 95% CI: 1.007–1.214, P = 0.03). Multivariate fractional polynomial analysis also showed that all-cause and cardiovascular mortality risk increased steadily with higher SAD values. In addition, SAD provided higher predictive value for all-cause (AUC: 0.691 vs. 0.547, P<0.001) and cardiovascular mortality (AUC: 0.644 vs. 0.483, P<0.001) than body mass index (BMI). Subgroup analysis revealed higher SAD (≥24.2 cm) was significantly associated with all-cause mortality in men, women, younger patients (<65 years), and patients with lower BMI (<22.3 kg/m²).

Conclusions

SAD determined by lateral abdominal X-ray at PD initiation was a significant independent predictor of all-cause and cardiovascular mortality in incident PD patients. Estimating visceral fat by SAD could be useful to stratify mortality risk in these patients.     

Coexistence of Low Vitamin D and High Fibroblast Growth Factor-23 Plasma Levels Predicts an Adverse Outcome in Patients with Coronary Artery Disease

Objective

Vitamin D and fibroblast growth factor-23 (FGF-23) are related with cardiovascular disorders. We have investigated the relationship of calcidiol (vitamin D metabolite) and FGF-23 plasma levels with the incidence of adverse outcomes in patients with coronary artery disease.

Methods

Prospective follow-up study of 704 outpatients, attending the departments of Cardiology of four hospitals in Spain, 6–12 months after an acute coronary event. Baseline calcidiol, FGF-23, parathormone, and phosphate plasma levels were assessed. The outcome was the development of acute ischemic events (any acute coronary syndrome, stroke, or transient ischemic attack), heart failure, or death. Cox regression adjusted for the main confounders was performed.

Results

Calcidiol levels showed a moderate-severe decrease in 57.3% of cases. Parathormone, FGF-23, and phosphate levels were increased in 30.0%, 11.5% and 0.9% of patients, respectively. Only 22.4% of patients had glomerular filtration rate<60 ml/min1.73 m². After a mean follow-up was 2.15±0.99 years, 77 patients developed the outcome. Calcidiol (hazard ratio [HR] = 0.67; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.48–0.94; p = 0.021) and FGF-23 (HR = 1.13; 95% CI = 1.04–1.23; p = 0.005) plasma levels predicted independently the outcome. There was a significant interaction between calcidiol and FGF-23 levels (p = 0.025). When the population was divided according to FGF-23 levels, calcidiol still predicted the outcome independently in patients with FGF-23 levels higher than the median (HR = 0.50; 95% CI = 0.31–0.80; p = 0.003) but not in those with FGF-23 levels below this value (HR = 1.03; 95% CI = 0.62–1.71; p = 0.904).

Conclusions

Abnormalities in mineral metabolism are frequent in patients with stable coronary artery disease. In this population, low calcidiol plasma levels predict an adverse prognosis in the presence of high FGF-23 levels.     

The Associations of Uric Acid,Cardiovascular and All-Cause Mortality in Peritoneal Dialysis Patients

Aims

To investigate whether uric acid (UA) is an independent predictor of cardiovascular (CV) and all-cause mortality in peritoneal dialysis (PD) patients after controlling for recognized CV risk factors.

Methods

A total of 2264 patients on chronic PD were collected from seven centers affiliated with the Socioeconomic Status on the Outcome of Peritoneal Dialysis (SSOP) Study. All demographic and laboratory data were recorded at baseline. Multivariate Cox regression was used to calculate the hazard ratio (HR) of CV and all-cause mortality with adjustments for recognized traditional and uremia-related CV factors.

Results

There were no significant differences in baseline characteristics between patients with (n = 2193) and without (n = 71) UA measured. Each 1 mg/dL of increase in UA was associated with higher all-cause mortality with 1.05(1.00∼1.10) of HR and higher CV mortality with 1.12 (1.05∼1.20) of HR after adjusting for age, gender and center size. The highest gender-specific tertile of UA predicted higher all-cause mortality with 1.23(1.00∼1.52) of HR and higher CV mortality with 1.69 (1.21∼2.38) of HR after adjusting for age, gender and center size. The predictive value of UA was stronger in patients younger than 65 years without CV disease or diabetes at baseline. The prognostic value of UA as both continuous and categorical variable weakened or disappeared after further adjusted for uremia-related and traditional CV risk factors.

Conclusions

The prognostic value of UA in CV and all-cause mortality was weak in PD patients generally, which was confounded by uremia-related and traditional CV risk factors.     

Association of Left Ventricular Mass with All-Cause Mortality,Myocardial Infarction and Stroke

Background

Our aim was to assess the association of left ventricular mass with mortality and nonfatal cardiovascular events.

Methodology/Principal Findings

Left ventricular mass was measured by echocardiography in 40138 adult patients (mean age 61.1±16.4 years, 52.5% male). The primary endpoint was all-cause mortality. Secondary endpoints included nonfatal myocardial infarction and nonfatal stroke. During a mean follow-up period of 5.6±3.9 years, 9181 patients died, 901 patients had a nonfatal myocardial infarction, and 2139 patients had a nonfatal stroke. Cumulative 10-year mortality was 26.8%, 31.9%, 37.4% and 46.4% in patients with normal, mildly, moderately and severely increased left ventricular mass, respectively (p<0.001). Ten-year rates of nonfatal myocardial infarction and stroke ranged from 3.2% and 6.7% in patients with normal left ventricular mass to 5.3% and 12.7% in those with severe increase in left ventricular mass, respectively. After multivariate adjustment, left ventricular mass remained an independent predictor of all-cause mortality (hazard ratio [HR] per 100 g increase 1.21, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.14–1–27, p<0.001 in women, and HR 1.09, 95% CI 1.04–1–13, p<0.001 in men), myocardial infarction (HR 1.60, 95% CI 1.31–1.94, p<0.001 in women and HR 1.15, 95% CI 1.02–1.29, p = 0.019 in men) and stroke (HR 1.26, 95% CI 1.13–1.40, p<0.001 in women and HR 1.19, 95% CI 1.09–1.30, p<0.001 in men).

Conclusions/Significance

Left ventricular mass has a graded and independent association with all-cause mortality, myocardial infarction and stroke.     

Iron Supplementation and Mortality in Incident Dialysis Patients: An Observational Study

Background

Studies on the association between iron supplementation and mortality in dialysis patients are rare and conflicting.

Methods

In our observational single-center cohort study (INVOR study) we prospectively studied 235 incident dialysis patients. Time-dependent Cox proportional hazards models using all measured laboratory values for up to 7.6 years were applied to study the association between iron supplementation and all-cause mortality, cardiovascular and sepsis-related mortality. Furthermore, the time-dependent association of ferritin levels with mortality in patients with normal C-reactive protein (CRP) levels (<0.5 mg/dL) and elevated CRP levels (≧0.5 mg/dL) was evaluated by using non-linear P-splines to allow flexible modeling of the association.

Results

One hundred and ninety-one (81.3%) patients received intravenous iron, 13 (5.5%) patients oral iron, whereas 31 (13.2%) patients were never supplemented with iron throughout the observation period. Eighty-two (35%) patients died during a median follow-up of 34 months, 38 patients due to cardiovascular events and 21 patients from sepsis. Baseline CRP levels were not different between patients with and without iron supplementation. However, baseline serum ferritin levels were lower in patients receiving iron during follow up (median 93 vs 251 ng/mL, p<0.001). Iron supplementation was associated with a significantly reduced all-cause mortality [HR (95%CI): 0.22 (0.08–0.58); p = 0.002] and a reduced cardiovascular and sepsis-related mortality [HR (95%CI): 0.31 (0.09–1.04); p = 0.06]. Increasing ferritin concentrations in patients with normal CRP were associated with a decreasing mortality, whereas in patients with elevated CRP values ferritin levels>800 ng/mL were linked with increased mortality.

Conclusions

Iron supplementation is associated with reduced all-cause mortality in incident dialysis patients. While serum ferritin levels up to 800 ng/mL appear to be safe, higher ferritin levels are associated with increased mortality in the setting of concomitant inflammation.     

Association between Resistin Levels and All-Cause and Cardiovascular Mortality: A New Study and a Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Context

Studies concerning the association between circulating resistin and mortality risk have reported, so far, conflicting results.

Objective

To investigate the association between resistin and both all-cause and cardiovascular (CV) mortality risk by 1) analyzing data from the Gargano Heart Study (GHS) prospective design (n=359 patients; 81 and 58 all-cause and CV deaths, respectively); 2) performing meta-analyses of all published studies addressing the above mentioned associations.

Data Source and Study Selection

MEDLINE and Web of Science search of studies reporting hazard ratios (HR) of circulating resistin for all-cause or CV mortality.

Data Extraction

Performed independently by two investigators, using a standardized data extraction sheet.

Data Synthesis

In GHS, adjusted HRs per one standard deviation (SD) increment in resistin concentration were 1.28 (95% CI: 1.07-1.54) and 1.32 (95% CI: 1.06-1.64) for all-cause and CV mortality, respectively. The meta-analyses included 7 studies (n=4016; 961 events) for all-cause mortality and 6 studies (n=4,187: 412 events) for CV mortality. Pooled HRs per one SD increment in resistin levels were 1.21 (95% CI: 1.03-1.42, Q-test p for heterogeneity<0.001) and 1.05 (95% CI: 1.01-1.10, Q-test p for heterogeneity=0.199) for all-cause and CV mortality, respectively. At meta-regression analyses, study mean age explained 9.9% of all-cause mortality studies heterogeneity. After adjusting for age, HR for all-cause mortality was 1.24 (95% CI: 1.06-1.45).

Conclusions

Our results provide evidence for an association between circulating resistin and mortality risk among high-risk patients as are those with diabetes and coronary artery disease.     

Tiotropium might improve survival in subjects with COPD at high risk of mortality

Background

Inhaled therapies reduce risk of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) exacerbations, but their effect on mortality is less well established. We hypothesized that heterogeneity in baseline mortality risk influenced the results of drug trials assessing mortality in COPD.

Methods

The 5706 patients with COPD from the Understanding Potential Long-term Impacts on Function with Tiotropium (UPLIFT®) study that had complete clinical information for variables associated with mortality (age, forced expiratory volume in 1 s, St George’s Respiratory Questionnaire, pack-years and body mass index) were classified by cluster analysis. Baseline risk of mortality between clusters, and impact of tiotropium were evaluated during the 4-yr follow up.

Results

Four clusters were identified, including low-risk (low mortality rate) patients (n = 2339; 41%; cluster 2), and high-risk patients (n = 1022; 18%; cluster 3), who had a 2.6- and a six-fold increase in all-cause and respiratory mortality compared with cluster 2, respectively. Tiotropium reduced exacerbations in all clusters, and reduced hospitalizations in high-risk patients (p < 0.05). The beneficial effect of tiotropium on all-cause mortality in the overall population (hazard ratio, 0.87; 95% confidence interval, 0.75–1.00, p = 0.054) was explained by a 21% reduction in cluster 3 (p = 0.07), with no effect in other clusters.

Conclusions

Large variations in baseline risks of mortality existed among patients in the UPLIFT® study. Inclusion of numerous low-risk patients may have reduced the ability to show beneficial effect on mortality. Future clinical trials should consider selective inclusion of high-risk patients.     

Preoperative proteinuria is associated with long-term progression to chronic dialysis and mortality after coronary artery bypass grafting surgery

Aims

Preoperative proteinuria is associated with post-operative acute kidney injury (AKI), but whether it is also associated with increased long- term mortality and end -stage renal disease (ESRD) is unknown.

Methods and Results

We studied 925 consecutive patients undergoing CABG. Demographic and clinical data were collected prospectively, and patients were followed for a median of 4.71 years after surgery. Proteinuria, according to dipstick tests, was defined as mild (trace to 1+) or heavy (2+ to 4+) according to the results of the dipstick test. A total of 276 (29.8%) patients had mild proteinuria before surgery and 119 (12.9%) patients had heavy proteinuria. During the follow-up, the Cox proportional hazards model demonstrated that heavy proteinuria (hazard ratio [HR], 27.17) was an independent predictor of long-term ESRD. There was a progressive increased risk for mild proteinuria ([HR], 1.88) and heavy proteinuria ([HR], 2.28) to predict all–cause mortality compared to no proteinuria. Mild ([HR], 2.57) and heavy proteinuria ([HR], 2.70) exhibited a stepwise increased ratio compared to patients without proteinuria for long–term composite catastrophic outcomes (mortality and ESRD), which were independent of the baseline GFR and postoperative acute kidney injury (AKI).

Conclusion

Our study demonstrated that proteinuria is a powerful independent risk factor of long-term all-cause mortality and ESRD after CABG in addition to preoperative GFR and postoperative AKI. Our study demonstrated that proteinuria should be integrated into clinical risk prediction models for long-term outcomes after CABG. These results provide a high priority for future renal protective strategies and methods for post-operative CABG patients.     

Is Obstructive Sleep Apnea Associated with Cardiovascular and All-Cause Mortality?

Background

Studies have reported inconsistent findings regarding the association between obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) and future risks of cardiovascular and all-cause mortality. We conducted a meta-analysis to investigate whether OSA is an independent predictor for future cardiovascular and all-cause mortality using prospective observational studies.

Methods

Electronic literature databases (Medline and Embase) were searched for prospective observational studies published prior to December 2012. Only observational studies that assessed baseline OSA and future risk of cardiovascular and all-cause mortality were selected. Pooled hazard risk (HR) and corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CI) were calculated for categorical risk estimates. Subgroup analyses were based on the severity of OSA.

Results

Six studies with 11932 patients were identified and analyzed, with 239 reporting cardiovascular mortality, and 1397 all-cause mortality. Pooled HR of all-cause mortality was 1.19 (95% CI, 1.00 to 1.41) for moderate OSA and 1.90 (95% CI, 1.29 to 2.81) for severe OSA. Pooled HR of cardiovascular mortality was 1.40 (95% CI, 0.77 to 2.53) for moderate OSA and 2.65 (95% CI, 1.82 to 3.85) for severe OSA. There were no differences in cardiovascular mortality in continuous positive airway pressure (CPAP) treatment compared with healthy subjects (HR 0.82; 95% CI, 0.50 to 1.33).

Conclusions

Severe OSA is a strong independent predictor for future cardiovascular and all-cause mortality. CPAP treatment was associated with decrease cardiovascular mortality.     

Mode of Death on Chagas Heart Disease: Comparison with Other Etiologies. A Subanalysis of the REMADHE Prospective Trial

Background

Sudden death has been considered the main cause of death in patients with Chagas heart disease. Nevertheless, this information comes from a period before the introduction of drugs that changed the natural history of heart failure. We sought to study the mode of death of patients with heart failure caused by Chagas heart disease, comparing with non-Chagas cardiomyopathy.

Methods and results

We examined the REMADHE trial and grouped patients according to etiology (Chagas vs non-Chagas) and mode of death. The primary end-point was all-cause, heart failure and sudden death mortality; 342 patients were analyzed and 185 (54.1%) died. Death occurred in 56.4% Chagas patients and 53.7% non-Chagas patients. The cumulative incidence of all-cause mortality and heart failure mortality was significantly higher in Chagas patients compared to non-Chagas. There was no difference in the cumulative incidence of sudden death mortality between the two groups. In the Cox regression model, Chagas etiology (HR 2.76; CI 1.34–5.69; p = 0.006), LVEDD (left ventricular end diastolic diameter) (HR 1.07; CI 1.04–1.10; p<0.001), creatinine clearance (HR 0.98; CI 0.97–0.99; p = 0.006) and use of amiodarone (HR 3.05; CI 1.47–6.34; p = 0.003) were independently associated with heart failure mortality. LVEDD (HR 1.04; CI 1.01–1.07; p = 0.005) and use of beta-blocker (HR 0.52; CI 0.34–0.94; p = 0.014) were independently associated with sudden death mortality.

Conclusions

In severe Chagas heart disease, progressive heart failure is the most important mode of death. These data challenge the current understanding of Chagas heart disease and may have implications in the selection of treatment choices, considering the mode of death.

Trial Registration

ClinicalTrails.gov {"type":"clinical-trial","attrs":{"text":"NCT00505050","term_id":"NCT00505050"}}NCT00505050 (REMADHE)     

Increased Risk of Active Tuberculosis following Acute Kidney Injury: A Nationwide,Population-Based Study

Background

Profound alterations in immune responses associated with uremia and exacerbated by dialysis increase the risk of active tuberculosis (TB). Evidence of the long-term risk and outcome of active TB after acute kidney injury (AKI) is limited.

Methods

This population-based-cohort study used claim records retrieved from the Taiwan National Health Insurance database. We retrieved records of all hospitalized patients, more than 18 years, who underwent dialysis for acute kidney injury (AKI) during 1999–2008 and validated using the NSARF data. Time-dependent Cox proportional hazards model to adjust for the ongoing effect of end-stage renal disease (ESRD) was conducted to predict long-term de novo active TB after discharge from index hospitalization.

Results

Out of 2,909 AKI dialysis patients surviving 90 days after index discharge, 686 did not require dialysis after hospital discharge. The control group included 11,636 hospital patients without AKI, dialysis, or history of TB. The relative risk of active TB in AKI dialysis patients, relative to the general population, after a mean follow-up period of 3.6 years was 7.71. Patients who did (hazard ratio [HR], 3.84; p<0.001) and did not (HR, 6.39; p<0.001) recover from AKI requiring dialysis had significantly higher incidence of TB than patients without AKI. The external validated data also showed nonrecovery subgroup (HR = 4.37; p = 0.049) had high risk of developing active TB compared with non-AKI. Additionally, active TB was associated with long-term all-cause mortality after AKI requiring dialysis (HR, 1.34; p = 0.032).

Conclusions

AKI requiring dialysis seems to independently increase the long-term risk of active TB, even among those who weaned from dialysis at discharge. These results raise concerns that the increasing global burden of AKI will in turn increase the incidence of active TB.     

One-Year Mortality Associations in Hemodialysis Patients after Traumatic Brain Injury—An Eight-Year Population-Based Study

Purpose

This study aimed to investigate the one-year mortality associations in hemodialysis patients who underwent neurosurgical intervention after traumatic brain injury (TBI) using a nationwide database in Taiwan.

Materials and Methods

An age- and gender-matched longitudinal cohort study of 4416 subjects, 1104 TBI patients with end-stage renal disease (ESRD) and 3312 TBI patients without ESRD, was conducted using the National Health Insurance Research Database in Taiwan between January 2000 and December 2007. The demographic characteristics, length of stay (LOS), length of ICU stay, length of ventilation (LOV), and tracheostomy were collected and analyzed. The co-morbidities of hypertension (HTN), diabetes mellitus (DM), myocardial infarction (MI), stroke, and heart failure (HF) were also evaluated.

Results

TBI patients with ESRD presented a shorter LOS, a longer length of ICU stay and LOV, and a higher percentage of comorbidities compared with those without ESRD. TBI patients with ESRD displayed a stable trend of one-year mortality rate, 75.82% to 76.79%, from 2000–2007. For TBI patients with ESRD, the median survival time was 0.86 months, and pre-existing stroke was a significant risk factor of mortality (HR: 1.29, 95% C.I.: 1.08–1.55). Pre-existing DM (HR: 1.35, 95% C.I.: 1.12–1.63) and MI (HR: 1.61, 95% C.I.: 1.07–2.42) effect on the mortality in ESRD patients who underwent TBI surgical intervention in the younger (age<65) and older (age≥65) population, respectively. In addition, the length of ICU stay and tracheostomy may provide important information to predict the mortality risk.

Conclusions

This is the first report indicating an increased risk of one-year mortality among TBI patients with a pre-existing ERSD insult. Comorbidities were more common in TBI patients with ESRD. Physicians should pay more attention to TBI patients with ESRD based on the status of age, comorbidities, length of ICU stay, and tracheostomy to improve their survival.     

Soluble CD93 Levels in Patients with Acute Myocardial Infarction and Its Implication on Clinical Outcome

Background

Inflammation plays a key role in the pathogenesis of acute myocardial infarction (MI). However, it is unclear whether marker of immune activation will provide prognostic information in these patients. We hypothesized that circulating levels of soluble CD93 (sCD93), a soluble form of transmembrane glycoprotein CD93, is increased in acute MI patients and its level would be associated with clinical outcomes in patients with acute MI.

Methods

We measured circulating levels of sCD93 in 120 patients with acute MI (63±13 yrs, M∶F = 85∶35) and in 120 age, sex-matched control subjects. In patients with acute MI, clinical characteristics, echocardiographic and laboratory findings were assessed at the time of initial enrollment. The primary outcome was defined as all-cause and cardiovascular death.

Results

Circulating sCD93 levels were significantly higher in patients with acute MI than in control subjects (552.1±293.7 vs. 429.8±114.2 ng/mL, p<0.0001). Upon in vitro inflammatory stimulation, increased CD93 shedding was demonstrated in acute MI patients but not in control subjects. During follow up period (median 208 days, 3-1058 days), the primary outcome occurred in 18 (15%) patients (9 cardiovascular deaths). Circulating levels of sCD93 were associated with all cause (p<0.0001) and cardiovascular (p<0.0001) mortality in patients with acute MI. Multivariate Cox regression analysis revealed that initial sCD93 level was found to be an independent predictor of all cause (p = 0.002) and cardiovascular mortality (p = 0.033) when controlled for age and left ventricular ejection fraction.

Conclusions

Circulating levels of sCD93 are elevated in patients with acute MI and their levels were associated with adverse clinical outcomes.     

Income Disparity and Risk of Death: The Importance of Health Behaviors and Other Mediating Factors

Background

Income disparities in mortality are profound in the United States, but reasons for this remain largely unexplained. The objective of this study was to assess the effects of health behaviors, and other mediating pathways, separately and simultaneously, including health insurance, health status, and inflammation, in the association between income and mortality.

Methods

This study used data from 9925 individuals aged 20 years or older who participated in the 1999–2004 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) and were followed up through December 31, 2006 for mortality. The outcome measures were all-cause and CVD/diabetes mortality. During follow-up 505 persons died, including 196 deaths due to CVD or diabetes.

Results

After adjusting for age, sex, education, and race/ethnicity, risk of death was higher in low-income than high-income group for both all-cause mortality (Hazard ratio [HR], 1.98; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.37, 2.85) and cardiovascular disease (CVD)/diabetes mortality (HR, 3.68; 95% CI: 1.64, 8.27). The combination of the four pathways attenuated 58% of the association between income and all-cause mortality and 35% of that of CVD/diabetes mortality. Health behaviors attenuated the risk of all-cause and CVD/diabetes mortality by 30% and 21%, respectively, in the low-income group. Health status attenuated 39% of all-cause mortality and 18% of CVD/diabetes mortality, whereas, health insurance and inflammation accounted for only a small portion of the income-associated mortality (≤6%).

Conclusion

Excess mortality associated with lower income can be largely accounted for by poor health status and unhealthy behaviors. Future studies should address behavioral modification, as well as possible strategies to improve health status in low-income people.     

Comparison of Estimated Glomerular Filtration Rate by the Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration (CKD-EPI) Equations with and without Cystatin C for Predicting Clinical Outcomes in Elderly Women

Background

Reduced estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) using the cystatin-C derived equations might be a better predictor of cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality compared with the creatinine-derived equations, but this association remains unclear in elderly individuals.

Aim

The aims of this study were to compare the predictive values of the Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration (CKD-EPI)-creatinine, CKD-EPI-cystatin C and CKD-EPI-creatinine-cystatin C eGFR equations for all-cause mortality and CVD events (hospitalizations±mortality).

Methods

Prospective cohort study of 1165 elderly women aged>70 years. Associations between eGFR and outcomes were examined using Cox regression analysis. Test accuracy of eGFR equations for predicting outcomes was examined using Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) analysis and net reclassification improvement (NRI).

Results

Risk of all-cause mortality for every incremental reduction in eGFR determined using CKD-EPI-creatinine, CKD-EPI-cystatin C and the CKD-EPI-creatinine-cystatic C equations was similar. Areas under the ROC curves of CKD-EPI-creatinine, CKD-EPI-cystatin C and CKD-EPI-creatinine-cystatin C equations for all-cause mortality were 0.604 (95%CI 0.561–0.647), 0.606 (95%CI 0.563–0.649; p = 0.963) and 0.606 (95%CI 0.563–0.649; p = 0.894) respectively. For all-cause mortality, there was no improvement in the reclassification of eGFR categories using the CKD-EPI-cystatin C (NRI -4.1%; p = 0.401) and CKD-EPI-creatinine-cystatin C (NRI -1.2%; p = 0.748) compared with CKD-EPI-creatinine equation. Similar findings were observed for CVD events.

Conclusion

eGFR derived from CKD-EPI cystatin C and CKD-EPI creatinine-cystatin C equations did not improve the accuracy or predictive ability for clinical events compared to CKD-EPI-creatinine equation in this cohort of elderly women.     

Serum Trimethylamine-N-Oxide Is Strongly Related to Renal Function and Predicts Outcome in Chronic Kidney Disease

Background

The microbial metabolite Trimethylamine-N-oxide (TMAO) has been linked to adverse cardiovascular outcome and mortality in the general population.

Objective

To assess the contribution of TMAO to inflammation and mortality in chronic kidney disease (CKD) patients ranging from mild-moderate to end-stage disease and 1) associations with glomerular filtration rate (GFR) 2) effect of dialysis and renal transplantation (Rtx) 3) association with inflammatory biomarkers and 4) its predictive value for all-cause mortality.

Methods

Levels of metabolites were quantified by a novel liquid chromatography/tandem mass spectrometry-based method in fasting plasma samples from 80 controls and 179 CKD 3–5 patients. Comorbidities, nutritional status, biomarkers of inflammation and GFR were assessed.

Results

GFR was the dominant variable affecting TMAO (β = -0.41; p<0.001), choline (β = -0.38; p<0.001), and betaine (β = 0.45; p<0.001) levels. A longitudinal study of 74 CKD 5 patients starting renal replacement therapy demonstrated that whereas dialysis treatment did not affect TMAO, Rtx reduced levels of TMAO to that of controls (p<0.001). Following Rtx choline and betaine levels continued to increase. In CKD 3–5, TMAO levels were associated with IL-6 (Rho = 0.42; p<0.0001), fibrinogen (Rho = 0.43; p<0.0001) and hsCRP (Rho = 0.17; p = 0.022). Higher TMAO levels were associated with an increased risk for all-cause mortality that remained significant after multivariate adjustment (HR 4.32, 95% CI 1.32–14.2; p = 0.016).

Conclusion

Elevated TMAO levels are strongly associated with degree of renal function in CKD and normalize after renal transplantation. TMAO levels correlates with increased systemic inflammation and is an independent predictor of mortality in CKD 3–5 patients.     

Serum Levels of Monocyte Chemoattractant Protein-1 and All-Cause and Cardiovascular Mortality among Patients with Coronary Artery Disease

Background

Monocyte chemoattractant protein-1 (MCP-1) is an important chemokine at multiple phases of atherosclerosis in animals, but human studies are few and inconsistent. The aim of this study is to investigate the association of serum MCP-1with all-cause and cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality among coronary artery disease (CAD) patients and determine whether this biomarker can add secondary prognostic value to standard risk predictors.

Methods

MCP-1 was measured at baseline in 1411 CAD patients who were 40–85 years of age. Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to estimate the association of MCP-1 levels with death risk.

Results

During a median follow-up of 3.3 years, 117 deaths were recorded, 88 of which were due to CVD. The multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios across tertiles of MCP-1 were 1.51 (95% confidence intervals [CI] 0.89–2.58), 1.00, and 2.11 (95% CI 1.31–3.40) for all-cause mortality, and 1.50 (95% CI 0.80–2.81), 1.00, and 2.21 (95% CI 1.27–3.87) for CVD mortality. The addition of serum MCP-1 to the fully adjusted model increased the C-index by 0.009 (p<0.0001) for all-cause mortality and 0.008 (p<0.0001) for CVD mortality and significantly improved the predictive ability by 12.1% (P = 0.006) on all-cause mortality and 12.6% (P = 0.003) on CVD mortality using the net reclassification improvement method.

Conclusions

Both lower and higher MCP-1 levels are associated with an increased risk of all-cause and CVD mortality among CAD patients. More research is needed to confirm its clinical relevance.     

Sickness Absence Due to Specific Mental Diagnoses and All-Cause and Cause-Specific Mortality: A Cohort Study of 4.9 Million Inhabitants of Sweden

Background

Despite the magnitude and increase of sickness absence due to mental diagnoses, little is known regarding long-term health outcomes. The aim of this nationwide population-based, prospective cohort study was to investigate the association between sickness absence due to specific mental diagnoses and the risk of all-cause and cause-specific mortality.

Methods

A cohort of all 4 857 943 individuals living in Sweden on 31.12.2004 (aged 16–64 years, not sickness absent, or on retirement or disability pension), was followed from 01.01.2005 through 31.12.2008 for all-cause and cause-specific mortality (suicide, cancer, circulatory disease) through linkage of individual register data. Individuals with at least one new sick-leave spell with a mental diagnosis in 2005 were compared to individuals with no sickness absence. Hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were estimated by Cox regression, adjusting for age, sex, education, country of birth, family situation, area of residence, and pre-existing morbidity (diagnosis-specific hospital inpatient (2000–2005) and outpatient (2001–2005) care).

Results

In the multivariate analyses, mental sickness absence in 2005 was associated with an increased risk for all-cause mortality: HR: 1.65, 95% CI: 1.47–1.86 in women and in men: 1.73, 1.57–1.91; for suicide, cancer (both smoking and non-smoking related) as well as mortality due to circulatory disease only in men. Estimates for cause-specific mortality ranged from 1.48 to 3.37. Associations with all-cause mortality were found for all mental sickness absence diagnostic groups studied.

Conclusions

Knowledge about the prognosis of patients sickness absent with specific mental diagnoses is of crucial clinical importance in health care. Sickness absence due to specific mental diagnoses may here be used as a risk indictor for subsequent mortality.     

Biomarkers of extracellular matrix metabolism (MMP-9 and TIMP-1) and risk of stroke, myocardial infarction, and cause-specific mortality: cohort study

Objective

Turnover of the extracellular matrix in all solid organs is governed mainly by a balance between the degrading matrix metalloproteinases (MMPs) and their tissue inhibitors (TIMPs). An altered extracellular matrix metabolism has been implicated in a variety of diseases. We investigated relations of serum levels of MMP-9 and TIMP-1 to mortality risk from an etiological perspective.

Design

The prospective Uppsala Longitudinal Study of Adult Men (ULSAM) cohort, followed from 1991–1995 for up to 18.1 years. A random population-based sample of 1,082 71-year-old men, no loss to follow-up. Endpoints were all-cause (n = 628), cardiovascular (n = 230), non-cardiovascular (n = 398) and cancer mortality (n = 178), and fatal or non-fatal myocardial infarction (n = 138) or stroke (n = 163).

Results

Serum MMP-9 and TIMP-1 levels were associated with risk of all-cause mortality (Cox proportional hazard ratio [HR] per standard deviation 1.10, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.03–1.19; and 1.11, 1.02–1.20; respectively). TIMP-1 levels were mainly related to risks of cardiovascular mortality and stroke (HR per standard deviation 1.22, 95% CI 1.09–1.37; and 1.18, 1.04–1.35; respectively). All relations except those of TIMP-1 to stroke risk were attenuated by adjustment for cardiovascular disease risk factors. Relations in a subsample without cardiovascular disease or cancer were similar to those in the total sample.

Conclusion

In this community-based cohort of elderly men, serum MMP-9 and TIMP-1 levels were related to mortality risk. An altered extracellular matrix metabolism may be involved in several detrimental pathways, and circulating MMP-9 or TIMP-1 levels may be relevant markers thereof.     

Uric Acid as a Risk Factor for Cardiovascular Disease and Mortality in Overweight/Obese Individuals

Background

The predictive value of serum uric acid (SUA) for adverse cardiovascular events among obese and overweight patients is not known, but potentially important because of the relation between hyperuricaemia and obesity.

Methods

The relationship between SUA and risk of cardiovascular adverse outcomes (nonfatal myocardial infarction, nonfatal stroke, resuscitated cardiac arrest or cardiovascular death) and all-cause mortality, respectively, was evaluated in a post-hoc analysis of the Sibutramine Cardiovascular OUTcomes (SCOUT) trial. Participants enrolled in SCOUT were obese or overweight with pre-existing diabetes and/or cardiovascular disease (CVD). Cox models were used to assess the role of SUA as an independent risk factor.

Results

9742 subjects were included in the study; 83.6% had diabetes, and 75.1% had CVD. During an average follow-up time of 4.2 years, 1043 subjects had a primary outcome (myocardial infarction, resuscitated cardiac arrest, stroke, or cardiovascular death), and 816 died. In a univariate Cox model, the highest SUA quartile was associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular adverse outcomes compared with the lowest SUA quartile in women (hazard ratio [HR]: 1.59; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.20–2.10). In multivariate analyses, adjusting for known cardiovascular risk factors the increased risk for the highest SUA quartile was no longer statistically significant among women (HR: 0.99; 95% CI: 0.72–1.36) nor was it among men. Analyses of all-cause mortality found an interaction between sex and SUA. In a multivariate Cox model including women only, the highest SUA quartile was associated with an increased risk in all-cause mortality compared to the lowest SUA quartile (HR: 1.51; 95% CI: 1.08–2.12). No relationship was observed in men (HR: 1.06; 95% CI: 0.82–1.36).

Conclusion

SUA was not an independent predictor of cardiovascular disease and death in these high-risk overweight/obese people. However, our results suggested that SUA was an independent predictor of all-cause mortality in women.