Temporal Variation in Population Size of European Bird Species: Effects of Latitude and Marginality of Distribution

In the Northern Hemisphere, global warming has been shown to affect animal populations in different ways, with southern populations in general suffering more from increased temperatures than northern populations of the same species. However, southern populations are also often marginal populations relative to the entire breeding range, and marginality may also have negative effects on populations. To disentangle the effects of latitude (possibly due to global warming) and marginality on temporal variation in population size, we investigated European breeding bird species across a latitudinal gradient. Population size estimates were regressed on years, and from these regressions we obtained the slope (a proxy for population trend) and the standard error of the estimate (SEE) (a proxy for population fluctuations). The possible relationships between marginality or latitude on one hand and slopes or SEE on the other were tested among populations within species. Potentially confounding factors such as census method, sampling effort, density-dependence, habitat fragmentation and number of sampling years were controlled statistically. Population latitude was positively related to regression slopes independent of marginality, with more positive slopes (i.e., trends) in northern than in southern populations. The degree of marginality was positively related to SEE independent of latitude, with marginal populations showing larger SEE (i.e., fluctuations) than central ones. Regression slopes were also significantly related to our estimate of density-dependence and SEE was significantly affected by the census method. These results are consistent with a scenario in which southern and northern populations of European bird species are negatively affected by marginality, with southern populations benefitting less from global warming than northern populations, thus potentially making southern populations more vulnerable to extinction.     

基于生态系统服务价值变化的环境与经济协调发展研究——以陕西省为例

为探讨生态环境与经济发展间的协调程度,选取2000、2005、2010和2015年4期的陕西省107个县（区）数据,利用单位面积生态系统服务价值和人均GDP构建环境经济协调度指数。结合空间自相关分析和空间杜宾模型等方法,分析了环境经济协调度指数的时空演变特征及驱动因素。研究表明：（1）从时间上看,陕西省环境经济协调度指数整体呈现缓慢下降趋势;从空间上看,大部分县（区）已处于基本协调和中度协调状态,并形成了陕北地区优于陕南地区,陕南地区优于关中地区的空间格局。（2）陕西省环境经济协调度指数具有显著的空间正相关性,高高集聚和低低集聚效果比较明显。（3）退耕还林工程、城镇化水平、产业结构、降水量是提升协调度指数的关键因素,气温则是制约协调度发展的约束要素。未来应因地制宜实施差异化的发展战略,以实现环境与经济协调发展。     

Historical links between settlement,ecology, and politics in the mountains of west Nepal

The paper presents a study of settlement processes in western Nepal. It emphasizes the linkages between settlement history, cultural ecology, and political economy as these relate to resources, marginality, and territory. Regional settlement trends are examined in accordance with land occupancy and tenure arrangements. Village settlement strategies are analyzed within a micro-processual framework that incorporates political economic perspectives on village land use and resource distributions. The past, present, and future roles of settlement in the human adaptation process of west Nepal's mountain populations is critically examined in the contexts of historical land policies and current rural political and environmental systems.     

陕北安塞县生态与经济系统耦合协调发展

协调生态环境与社会经济的均衡发展,是实现县域可持续发展的重要因素。以延安市安塞县为对象,基于社会经济与生态环境的数据,构建安塞县社会经济系统与生态环境系统的指标体系,利用熵权法计算社会-经济-环境综合评价指数,在此基础上利用耦合协调度模型、剪刀差方法和耦合度模型分析了社会经济系统与生态环境系统的耦合协调状态、发展速度差异以及耦合度演变趋势。结果表明:1996—2013年间,安塞县社会经济系统综合评价指数稳定上升,自然生态系统综合水平呈现波动下降趋势,前者发展速度总体上快于后者;耦合协调度指数由0.33增长至0.59,反映了该区域社会经济与生态环境的关系不断改善,较好地实现了二者的协调;剪刀差在0. 032水平范围内波动上升,说明二者发展趋势之间的差异逐渐增大;安塞县社会经济与生态环境的耦合度分布于45°β90°范围内,二者处于协调发展阶段,耦合度β表现为先下降后上升,说明经济与环境之间的矛盾开始显露。研究表明,安塞县应着力加强生态建设的固基和推进作用,缓解社会经济和生态环境的矛盾,实现二者的协调发展。     

赣南地区农业生态经济系统耦合态势的时空演变

赣南地区地处南方丘陵山地区域,是重要的生态功能区,其农业经济发展与生态功能保护的关系备受关注。促进农业生态经济系统的耦合协调发展,是赣南地区可持续发展的重要内容。利用2000-2015年赣州市各县（市）统计年鉴数据及遥感数据,构建了基于耦合协调度模型的区域农业生态经济系统的评价指标体系,开展时间和空间尺度上的农业生态经济系统的耦合协调发展研究。结果表明：（1）在时间尺度上,农业生态系统变化不大,在空间尺度上县（市）之间因自然条件的不同略有差异;农业经济综合评价值在2000-2015年之间有较大的增长,且不同县（市）间存在差异,农业经济系统的相对滞后是限制农业生态经济系统不能协同发展的原因。（2）耦合度和耦合协调度随时间而增长,大部分县（市）的耦合度经历了从中度耦合、高度耦合、再到极度耦合的过程,其中极度耦合的占比从2000年的0%提升到2015年的94%;耦合协调度从基本、中度协调耦合到中度、高度协调耦合,且都呈现以赣县、于都县、兴国县为主的中部较低,而南北部较高的态势。（3）2010年前,大部分县（市）的农业生态经济系统发展类型长期处于农业经济极度滞后状态,随后逐步向农业经济严重滞后过渡。农业生态经济系统耦合态势的分析有助于明晰当地的农业生态经济系统的发展、演变规律,促进农业系统的协调发展。     

RELATIONSHIP OF GENETIC DIVERSITY AND NICHE CENTRALITY: A SURVEY AND ANALYSIS

The distribution of genetic diversity within and among populations in relation to species’ geographic ranges is important to understanding processes of evolution, speciation, and biogeography. One hypothesis predicts that natural populations at geographic range margins will have lower genetic diversity relative to those located centrally in species’ distributions owing to a link between geographic and environmental marginality; alternatively, genetic variation may be unrelated with geographic marginality via decoupling of geographic and environmental marginality. We investigate the predictivity of geographic patterns of genetic variation based on geographic and environmental marginality using published genetic diversity data for 40 species (insects, plants, birds, mammals, worms). Only about half of species showed positive relationships between geographic and environmental marginality. Three analyses (sign test, multiple linear regression, and meta‐analysis of correlation effect sizes) showed a negative relationship between genetic diversity and distance to environmental niche centroid, but no consistent relationship of genetic diversity with distance to geographic range center.     

河北省生态环境与经济协调发展的时空演变

基于构建的河北省生态环境与经济协调发展的评价指标体系,并引入耦合度模型,测算了河北省2000—2014年全省及2000、2006、2010、2014年11个地级市的生态环境综合指数、经济发展综合指数及生态环境与经济协调发展耦合度.结果表明: 研究期间,河北省生态环境与经济协调发展水平呈不断提高趋势,从濒临失调衰退到良好协调发展,经历了3个显著发展阶段.11个地级市的生态环境与经济协调发展度均逐年增加,并在空间分布上存在显著差异.通过分析河北省生态环境与经济协调发展时空演化机理,认为政策、经济、产业和区位是其关键影响因素,并据此提出河北省未来生态与经济协调发展的建议.     

环杭州湾城市群生态环境与社会经济耦合协调关系及其影响因素

生态环境与社会经济之间的耦合协调关系是可持续发展关注的一个重点和热点。以环杭州湾城市群为研究对象,构建环杭州湾城市群生态环境与社会经济耦合协调度综合评价指标体系,借助ArcGIS软件,采用耦合协调度模型和Pearson相关分析,分析环杭州湾城市群在2000—2019年间生态环境、社会经济发展指数与耦合协调度的演变特征及其影响因素。结果表明：(1)2000—2019年间环杭州湾城市群的社会经济指数呈稳定上升趋势,生态环境指数呈先上下波动后逐年上升的变化趋势;(2)2000—2014年间环杭州湾城市群社会经济的发展速度大于生态环境的发展速度,2015—2019年间生态环境的发展速度大于社会经济发展速度;(3)2000—2019年,环杭州湾城市群生态环境和社会经济之间的耦合协调度从良好协调过度到了完美协调,其中,2000年上海和杭州的耦合协调度小于其它城市,2019年苏州是杭州湾城市群中唯一没有达到完美协调的城市;(4)人口密度、空气质量、工业废水排放量、工业固体废弃物是环杭州湾城市群生态环境与社会经济耦合协调度提高的主要阻碍因素。     

舟山群岛生态系统健康与旅游经济协调发展评价

在界定生态系统健康与旅游经济协调发展定义的基础上,构建了海岛目的地生态系统健康和旅游经济协调发展评价的指标体系,采用改进的TOPSIS法对2000—2012年舟山群岛生态系统健康和海岛旅游业的协调发展状况进行了定量评价,运用障碍度模型对其协调发展的障碍因素进行了分析,并使用Logistic模型对2013—2015年协调发展状态进行了预测。研究表明:(1)2000—2012年,舟山群岛海岛生态系统健康和旅游经济的静态协调度和动态协调度总体均呈持增加趋势,静态协调度由0.6453增加到0.7301,动态协调度由0.6453增加至0.6874;(2)2000—2012年,舟山群岛生态系统健康和旅游经济由初级协调发展型向中级协调发展型演化,其中2000—2007年为初级协调发展型,2008—2012年为中级协调发展型;(3)海洋经济占GDP比重、近海海域环境功能区达标率、环保投入占GDP比重、公路网密度、城镇化率是影响舟山群岛生态系统健康和旅游经济协调发展的主要障碍因子;(4)2013—2015年,舟山群岛生态系统健康和旅游经济的静态协调度预测值为0.8335、0.8442和0.8543,动态协调度的预测值为0.6885、0.6916和0.6947,说明两者的协调发展状态将持续改善。     

林业资源型城市生态-经济-社会协调发展的定量测度——以黑龙江省伊春市为例

把握城市独特的生态-经济-社会系统协调优化特性是实现林业资源型城市可持续发展的重要前提。研究从生态、经济、社会3个维度构建了林业资源型城市复合系统的测度评价指标体系,应用熵值法、耦合协调度模型,采用2005-2018年时段生态、经济、社会数据,对伊春协调发展状况进行实证测度评价,运用障碍度模型分析影响系统协调发展的主要因素,采用GM （1,1）灰色预测模型进行发展预测。结果表明：（1）综合发展指数呈上升态势,促进生态-经济-社会综合发展的主要动能历经了从生态到经济,再到生态为主要动力的发展过程,三个子系统发展水平呈趋同态势,推动三维系统的均衡协同是未来发展的重要方向;（2）三维系统耦合度稳定在较高水平,系统间相互依赖、相互作用程度较高,协调度呈波动上升,实现了由勉强协调、经济滞后发展向良好协调、同步发展的转变,协调状态趋向良好;（3）三维系统中社会子系统对协调发展的障碍度最大;人口自然增长率、建成区绿化覆盖率、GDP增长率、第三产业就业人数比重4个指标是制约近期协调发展的主要障碍因子;（4）2019-2030年,生态、经济、社会子系统发展指数及协调度的预测值均呈上升态势,生态-经济-社会复合系统将向更高级的协调发展状态演进,经济发展将再次成为促进生态-经济-社会综合发展的主要动力;加强生态建设,引领生态创新,大力发展生态经济,提高社会发展水平,着力降低障碍因子对协调发展的阻力作用,实现生态-经济-社会的联动健康发展是伊春未来重要的努力方向。     

干旱区典型绿洲城市发展与水资源潜力协调度分析

基于1995-2010年城市发展与水资源开发利用现状,构建了城市发展与水资源潜力的综合评价模型及二者的协调度模型,以探讨乌鲁木齐城市发展及水资源潜力的变化与二者的协调关系。结论如下:(1)乌鲁木齐市的城市发展综合水平基本呈逐年上升趋势,其中经济发展与人口增长是乌鲁木齐城市发展的主要形式,社会进步和空间扩张对城市综合发展的影响相对较小。(2)水资源开发利用潜力的变化波动性较强,总体呈现下降趋势,主要受水资源本底条件变化的影响,水资源利用效率和管理能力的提高则促进水资源潜力的提升。(3)城市发展与水资源系统的协调度先升后降,呈倒U字型变化,总体二者的协调发展度不高,城市发展系统和水资源系统的矛盾日渐突出。     

Marginality: scale determined processes and the conservation of the British butterfly fauna

Marginality describes the impact that environmental and landscape factors have in decreasing the probability of population survival and persistence. It may be imposed by extreme conditions or resource scarcity. Typically, it affects populations at the range edge but can also affect populations within the core of ranges, and produces a number of symptoms: characteristically demographic, but also morphological, physiological, biochemical and genetic. In this paper, the causes and effects of marginality on British butterflies are compared in edge and centre of range populations. Issues of temporal and spatial scales are examined, as is the relevance of marginality to the conservation of single and multiple species populations. The recognition of marginality questions the appropriateness of many so-called spatially realistic models of populations and highlights areas of research which have hitherto been ignored. Projected changes in land use and climate have implications for marginality in core and peripheral populations; in view of this, current scales of mapping are found to be unsuitable for monitoring fragmentation and the increasing marginalization of butterfly species in the British landscape.     

黄土高原退耕还林(草)区旅游开发探讨

黄土高原退耕还林(草)区生态环境相对脆弱,经济发展较为落后,如何在多元化目标主导下寻求退耕还林政策的合理模式,关系到西部大开发政策的实施效果。在简要介绍区域概况,评价退耕还林(草)模式的基础上,认为生态保护型和生态经济型模式缺乏社区利益的考虑,可持续发展的动力不足,但生态旅游开发模式可以解决动力不足的问题。通过分析退耕还林(草)区生态旅游开发的资源、区位、政策、交通、接待设施等旅游开发的影响因子,提出了黄土高原退耕还林(草)区旅游开发的阶段及任务,并构建了该区域旅游开发的分区框架。     

基于改进TOPSIS-灰色GM(1,1)模型的张家界市旅游生态安全动态预警

旅游生态安全预警对旅游地协调生态环境保护与旅游产业快速发展的矛盾,推进区域社会经济持续健康发展具有重要意义.本文基于DPSIR模型,从驱动力、压力、状态、影响、响应5方面构建了张家界市旅游生态安全预警指标体系,在此基础上,运用改进TOPSIS法对2001—2014年张家界市的旅游生态安全警情格局进行评估,并运用灰色GM(1,1)模型对其2015—2020年的警情演变趋势进行预测.结果表明: 总体上,2001—2014年,张家界市的旅游生态安全贴近度呈略微上升态势,警度处于“中警”.就各子系统而言,2001—2014年,张家界市旅游生态安全驱动力系统和压力系统的警度呈上升趋势,由“轻警”演变成“重警”;状态系统和影响系统的警度变化不大,一直处于“中警”;响应系统的警度呈下降趋势,由“巨警”转变成“无警”.按现状发展态势,2015—2020年,张家界市的旅游生态安全贴近度将进一步上升,警度将由“中警”向“轻警”转变,但协调旅游发展与生态建设和环境保护关系的任务依然较艰巨.     

Water and energy footprints of bioenergy crop production on marginal lands

Water and energy demands associated with bioenergy crop production on marginal lands are inextricably linked with land quality and land use history. To illustrate the effect of land marginality on bioenergy crop yield and associated water and energy footprints, we analyzed seven large‐scale sites (9–21 ha) converted from either Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) or conventional agricultural land use to no‐till soybean for biofuel production. Unmanaged CRP grassland at the same location was used as a reference site. Sites were rated using a land marginality index (LMI) based on land capability classes, slope, soil erodibility, soil hydraulic conductivity, and soil tolerance factors extracted from a soil survey (SSURGO) database. Principal components analysis was used to develop a soil quality index (SQI) for the study sites based on 12 soil physical and chemical properties. The water and energy footprints on these sites were estimated using eddy‐covariance flux techniques. Aboveground net primary productivity was inversely related to LMI and positively related to SQI. Water and energy footprints increased with LMI and decreased with SQI. The water footprints for grain, biomass and energy production were higher on lands converted from agricultural land use compared with those converted from the CRP land. The sites which were previously in the CRP had higher SQI than those under agricultural land use, showing that land management affects water footprints through soil quality effects. The analysis of biophysical characteristics of the sites in relation to water and energy use suggests that crops and management systems similar to CRP grasslands may provide a potential strategy to grow biofuels that would minimize environmental degradation while improving the productivity of marginal lands.     

生态环境脆弱性与多维贫困的耦合关系——基于广西河池市1586个贫困村的实证分析

探索精细尺度上生态环境与区域综合贫困之间的关联性以及两者互动机理,是实现精准脱贫和乡村振兴背景下资源环境与社会经济绿色可持续发展的重要前提和保障.本文通过分别建立生态脆弱性和多维贫困评价模型体系,并结合耦合协调度模型,系统全面地揭示了生态环境脆弱性与多维贫困之间的协调发展关系.对研究区1586个行政村的测试结果表明:研究区生态环境高脆弱区主要分布在东南部;多维贫困状况从西北向东南呈现递增趋势,空间分布上均呈现“整体分散、局部聚集”的格局.在协调发展区,生态环境脆弱度与多维贫困程度的耦合度较高,两者呈显著正相关关系;在衰退失调区,生态环境脆弱度与多维贫困程度的耦合度较低,两者呈显著的负相关关系,说明生态环境质量改善和多维减贫发展不同步.生态环境脆弱性与多维贫困之间存在密切的复杂关系,扶贫开发的同时应重视生态环境保护,防止陷入生态贫困陷阱.     

Addressing common pitfalls does not provide more support to geographical and ecological abundant‐centre hypotheses

A long‐standing hypothesis in biogeography is that a species’ abundance is highest at the centre of its geographical or environmental space and decreases toward the edges. Several studies tested this hypothesis and provided mixed results and overall weak support to the theory. Most studies, however, are affected by several limitations related to the sample size, the comparability among abundance measures, the definition of species geographic range and corresponding environmental space, and the proxy variables used to represent centrality/marginality gradients. Here we test the abundant‐centre hypothesis on 108 bird and mammal species and embrace the plural nature of the hypothesis by considering 9 geographic and ecological centrality/marginality measures. We analyse the species‐specific effect sizes using a meta‐analytical approach, and test whether the support for the hypothesis is mediated by species dispersal abilities, and the geographic and environmental coverage of the data. The summary effect sizes estimated for the 9 measures are largely inconsistent with the theoretical expectations and show a significant amount of residual heterogeneity. Variables such as dispersal distance, geographic and environmental coverage of the data, appear important in explaining the variation observed between different species, but the results are contrary to those originally hypothesized, and inconsistent across centrality/marginality measures and the datasets used. We show that addressing common pitfalls in previous studies does not provide more support to the abundant‐centre hypothesis, with support being very dependent on the centrality/marginality measure tested, the geographic extent considered for the test, and geographic and environmental coverage of the data. The abundant‐centre hypothesis so far remains an appealing speculation with little and variable empirical support.     

城市复合生态系统中互动关系的测度与评价

基于城市复合生态系统原理和城市代谢功能,构建了城市系统互动分析指标体系。应用因子分析法、层次分析法及所建立的量化模型,对城市复合生态系统中的不同变量之间的相关性和协调性进行度量。并以中国北京、上海、广州、天津、重庆和深圳等六大城市为例,对其可持续发展进程进行横向比较。结果表明,六大城市发展度由大到小的顺序是:上海、深圳、广州、天津、北京、重庆;协调度由好到坏的排序是:重庆、上海、广州、北京、天津、深圳;循环度由好到坏的排序是:深圳、上海、天津、北京、广州、重庆;从可持续发展度看,建设和实现可持续发展城市或生态城市的先后顺序大致为:上海、深圳、广州、重庆、天津、北京。说明城市可持续发展的关键取决于社会经济活动压力源的削减、自然生态环境的保育以及城市代谢功能的增强。     

Estimating the Size and Impact of the Ecological Restoration Economy

Domestic public debate continues over the economic impacts of environmental regulations that require environmental restoration. This debate has occurred in the absence of broad-scale empirical research on economic output and employment resulting from environmental restoration, restoration-related conservation, and mitigation actions — the activities that are part of what we term the “restoration economy.” In this article, we provide a high-level accounting of the size and scope of the restoration economy in terms of employment, value added, and overall economic output on a national scale. We conducted a national survey of businesses that participate in restoration work in order to estimate the total sales and number of jobs directly associated with the restoration economy, and to provide a profile of this nascent sector in terms of type of restoration work, industrial classification, workforce needs, and growth potential. We use survey results as inputs into a national input-output model (IMPLAN 3.1) in order to estimate the indirect and induced economic impacts of restoration activities. Based on this analysis we conclude that the domestic ecological restoration sector directly employs ~ 126,000 workers and generates ~ $9.5 billion in economic output (sales) annually. This activity supports an additional 95,000 jobs and $15 billion in economic output through indirect (business-to-business) linkages and increased household spending.