Comparison of the increase in body size between 1899 and 1970 in a specially selected group with that in the general population

Height and weight data for varsity football players from 1899 to 1970 were analyzed for evidence of a secular trend in such a specialized sample. Recent football teams ('61–'70) are, on the average, 2.6 inches (6.6 cm) taller and 35.3 pounds (16.05 kg) heavier than the teams at the turn of the century (1899–1910). The estimated trend over the 70 year span was 0.37 inches (0.94 cm) per decade for stature and 5.04 pounds (2.29 kg) per decade for weight. Unfortunately, it is not possible to partition these trends and obtain separate estimates for the “secular” effects and for those effects that might be attributed to “recruiting practices.” The observed trend for stature in football players corresponds with the upper limit of the estimated range for adult secular trend data for stature from Western European countries, and is greater than that reported for American young adult males both in college and in the general population.     

Aging and secular change in adult stature in rural Colombia

Age-associated changes in adult stature of a cross-sectional sample of 634 adults from rural Colombia were estimated by multiple regression of stature and age controlling for subischial length, and from equations predicting maximum attained stature from subischial length. From these analyses the estimated rate of loss in stature due to aging per se for men was 0.12 cm/yr, while for women it was 0.03 cm/yr. When corrected for aging, several secular trends in adult stature were evident, although none were statistically significant.     

Adult stature and age at menarche in Zapotec-speaking communities in the Valley of Oaxaca,Mexico, in a secular perspective

Adult stature and the age at menarche among individuals from Zapotec-speaking communities in the Valley of Oaxaca in southern Mexico are considered in a secular perspective. Four sets of observations are utilized: (1) adult stature in males and females from five rural communities; (2) age at menarche in adult women and school girls from a single rural community; (3) earlier studies of adult stature in the Valley of Oaxaca; and (4) estimated stature from long bones excavated in various archaeological sites in the Valley of Oaxaca. There were no significant differences among the five communities for stature; hence, the data were pooled for analysis and comparison. Results of linear regression of stature and stature adjusted for the estimated effects of aging after 30 years of age on year of birth indicate negligible secular changes in either sex. Comparisons with statures from earlier surveys, the earliest dates to 1899, also indicate negligible changes. When adult women are grouped according to age, there are no differences in mean ages at menarche between the older and younger women. Mean age at menarche for the total adult sample is 14.53 ± 0.08 years, which compares favorably with the probit estimate for school girls, 14.70 ± 0.32 years. These results thus suggest virtually no secular change in adult size and maturity of the Zapotec-speaking population in the Valley of Oaxaca over the past 80 years. Differences in stature between contemporary populations and estimated statures from long bones from several archaeological sites in Oaxaca are small, and thus suggests little secular change over the past one to two–thousand years.     

Secular trend in the stature and weight of Mexican-American children in Texas between 1930 and 1970

Statures and weights for four samples of Mexican-American children in Texas, measured in 1929–1931 and 1968–1972, were evaluated for evidence of a secular trend. The age range was 6 to 18 years, with more complete data from 8 through 15 years. There is no secular increase in the statures and weights of 6 year old children, a small increase in 8 years old children, and a larger secular increase at 10, 12, 14, and 15 years of age. From about 9 or 10 years of age on, the more recent Mexican-American children tend to have greater weights for their heights. The magnitudé of the secular change per decade, however, is considerably smaller than rates for US black, white, European, and Japanese children. The estimated rates of secular change in stature for Mexican-American children approximate about one-fourth to one-half of the generalized rates for European and North American children offered by Meredith ('76) and Tanner ('77). Reasons for a limited secular trend in Texas Mexican-American children are probably bound to the matrix of lower socioeconomic circumstances, poorer health conditions, and marginal nutritional status.     

Secular trend in body height and weight of Australian children and adolescents

Secular changes in growth and maturation have been well documented in various world populations, with secular increase especially noticeable in the developed countries. To assess the trend in both adult size and tempo of growth we compared the data on stature and body weight obtained in 1992-1993 from 1,804 Melbourne school students aged 5 to 17 with historical data collected from white Australians during the last 100 years. We illustrate the age-dependent trend in stature and body weight by means of regression surfaces. These were constructed by fitting local regression models to historical data and by simple plots showing the overall, and per decade, secular increase in both these measures at peripubertal and adult ages. Because of limited information on sample sizes and variability provided by the historical data, statistical comparisons have been performed only between the present 1992-1993 survey and two earlier independent surveys conducted in 1985 and 1970. The results have shown secular increase in adult stature over the last century, with the rate of increase varying between 0.4 and 2.1 cm/decade in males and 0.01 and 1.6 cm/decade in females. While secular increase in stature has significantly slowed down during the last two decades, the increase in body weight is still continuing at a high rate, and this increase is more pronounced in females. The period of strong secular increase, especially in the tempo of growth, coincided both with the shift toward earlier menarche and the improvement of socioeconomic conditions of the Australian population. The need for further studies to identify factors determining the continuing increase in body weight is emphasized, and caution in using the existing national growth standards for stature and weight is recommended.     

Secular trend for stature in adult male Yucatec Maya to 1968

Statures for 64 adult male Yucatec Maya (18+ years old, sons of campesinos) were measured in 1968 and compared with mean statures presented in results for previous studies. There were no significant changes in mean stature since 1895. If the sample is divided into 5-year age groups, no secular trend is evident. Using osteological information from as early as the Late Preclassic, stature of adult Maya males has decreased 119 mm in a little more than 20 centuries (?0.06 cm/decade). Comparing the results with measurements from other Mesoamerican groups, only one – the Otomí – show evidence of significant secular change. It is possible that modern economic development schemes in Mesoamerica are too recent or ineffective to have had an effect on stature.     

Secular trend in stature and age at menarche among Punjabi Aroras residing in New Delhi, India

The study was conducted on Punjabi Arora girls (n = 159) and their mothers to see the phenomenon of secular trend in stature and age at menarche. An increase in stature and decrease in age at menarche was reported when the data of daughters was compared with that of their mothers thereby indicating secular trend in these two parameters. Better living conditions, improved nutrition and medical facilities, changes in environmental and socio-economic factors may account for increase in stature and early biological maturation.     

Secular trends in anthropometrical measurements observed in three to 11-year-old French children between 1953 and 2005

This study covers a fifty-year period between 1953 and 2005 and looks at secular trends in stature, weight and sitting height sizes among French boys and girls between the ages of 3 and 11. A special modelling in function to the age and variable for each child was established so that a comparison could be made in the kinetic growth patterns over these same two periods. Statistical analysis shows a significant increase in growth, of 0.8cm per decade in stature, characterised by a certain increase in the lower limbs and the weight (0.8kg per decade) together with a proportional increase on the body mass index. Positive secular trends of this anthropometric nature are generally thanks to improved eating and sanitary habits and this study enables us to build and elaborate new standards in growth patterns essential for monitoring auxological development in 3 to 11-year-old children in the years 2000 and onwards.     

The effects of aging and secular trend on adult stature in rural western Ireland

Cross-sectional data, consisting of anthropometric measurements for 347 adult males and 261 adult females in western Ireland measured during the 1930s, were used to determine the effects of aging and secular change upon stature. Estimates of statural loss due to aging were obtained using partial regression of stature on age while controlling for subischial length, and regression of the difference between observed stature and maximum predicted stature on age. Males show the effects of aging to a greater extent than do females. After correction for the effects of aging, the adjusted values of stature were regressed on age to estimate secular trend of stature. For males, there is a general increase of stature with time, excepting those born around 1878, while females generally show random variation with time. Both male and female adjusted stature decrease sharply around 1878, for which alternative historical explanations are proposed, relating to differential migration and survival.     

Effect of radiation dose on the height of atomic bomb survivors: a longitudinal study

We conducted a longitudinal analysis of height after age 20 for atomic bomb survivors in the Adult Health Study (AHS) cohort. The measurements we used were made from July 1958 to June 1998 (AHS examination cycles 1-20). We analyzed only the subjects with known atomic bomb radiation doses, excluding those who were not in the city at the time of bombing (ATB) and those exposed in utero. We also excluded from the analysis measurements made after the occurrence of vertebral fracture. The total number of subjects was 11,862, and the total number of measurements was 109,770; the mean number of measurements per subject was 9.25. Assuming that stature after age 20 is approximately constant, a simple mixed-effects model was fitted to stature after age 20, and linear dose effects for young ATB subjects were modeled for both sexes. The estimated mean heights for subjects born in 1945 in Hiroshima were 166.0 cm for men and 155.4 cm for women. The sex difference in height was 10.6 cm, with men significantly taller than women (P < 0.001). The difference between the cities was not significant (P = 0.162). The birth cohort effects per decade were -1.7 cm for men (P < 0.001) and -2.1 cm for women (P < 0.001). A reduction of stature due to radiation exposure was observed for individuals of both sexes who were below 19 years of age ATB (95% confidence interval, 17-21 years), and the dose effect was larger for women than for men (P = 0.028). The estimated effects per gray for those who were age 0 ATB were -1.2 cm for men and -2.0 cm for women and for those who were age 10 ATB were-0.57 cm for men and -0.96 cm for women.     

Secular change in heights of indigenous adults from a Zapotec‐speaking community in Oaxaca,southern Mexico

Secular change in adult height of residents in a rural indigenous community in the Valley of Oaxaca was evaluated. Subjects were measured in 1971 (49 males, 26 females 19–70 years), 1978 (128 males, 124 females 19–82 years) and 2000 (155 males, 255 females 19–89 years). Heights were adjusted for estimated loss with age using two protocols; height at 21 years of age was also estimated. The effects of age and secular factors on measured and adjusted heights were evaluated through segmented linear regressions for three birth periods, <1930, 1930 through 1959 and ≥1960 which approximate significant periods in Mexican history. Secular increase in height occurred but estimated rates varied over time and between sexes. Males born before 1930 showed a secular increase in height but females did not. Adults of both sexes born 1930–1959 showed secular gains and estimated rates did not differ. The secular gain in height continued among those born 1960 and later and estimated rates were similar in both sexes. Estimated height at 21 years of age increased in males (not significant) but not in females born before 1930, showed little or no change in those born between 1930‐1959, and increased (not significant) in those born 1960 and later. Combining observations on adults with those for youth in the community indicated several phases of secular change in height that varied with years of birth. Am J Phys Anthropol 2010. © 2009 Wiley‐Liss, Inc.     

Research on secular trends in auxology

Current status of research on secular trends in growth and maturation is considered from several perspectives. The need to define secular trends as positive, negative or absent is initially discussed. Positive secular trends, i.e., increases in size and earlier maturation, characterize the majority of the auxological literature. However, some populations have experienced negative secular trends or no trends. Positive secular trends and cessation of secular trends in stature and age at menarche are described for developed countries, followed by a brief discussion of secular changes in body proportions and composition. Data from developing countries illustrate all three types of secular trends. Some segments of the population show positive changes in size and age at menarche, while others show no evidence of secular change or negative secular trends. Finally, comparisons of estimated statures in earlier European populations suggest a negative secular trend, i.e., a decline in estimated stature from about the 11th to the 19th centuries, which is followed by a positive secular trend starting about the mid-19th century.     

Decline of height with age in adults in a general population sample: estimating maximum height and distinguishing birth cohort effects from actual loss of stature with aging

The decline in stature with age among adults is well documented. Although part of this represents a birth cohort effect, actual height declines among older individuals are known to contribute to the effect. In this study we used longitudinal changes in the heights of adults in a general population sample to determine the rate of decline in height over time in individuals of different ages. This allowed an estimation of the age at which decline in height begins, a value close to age 40 in both sexes. It also allowed derivation of equations from which the maximum height of subjects can be estimated on the basis of their sex, current height, and age. These equations should prove useful when examining the effect of aging per se on physiological measurements that are height dependent. The data also allow one to compare the magnitude of the effect of year of birth with that of the actual decline in height seen among the elderly. We estimate that approximately 60% of the smaller stature of older male subjects and 45% of the smaller stature of older female subjects is a birth cohort effect deriving from the secular trend toward greater stature; the remainder is a result of an actual decrement in height after the age of 40.     

Between the Great War and the Great Depression: preliminary observations on the ‘missing link’ in the history of human stature in Poland

The paper traces the secular trend in stature in Poland in the interwar period. On the basis of individual measuring cards created by military authorities for Krosno and Sarny districts, the author states that the secular trend in stature that started in the mid-1860s continued between the two world wars with the velocity of at least 0.7 cm per decade, i.e. at a similar rate as in the second half of the 19th century. Although regional differences inside the Second Polish Republic were clearly visible, cohorts born during the Great War were able to make up the lost ground in their teens despite the hardships caused by the Great Depression of the 1930s.     

Body-height and inbreeding in France

Dahlberg's ('43) hypothesis that heterosis is a major component of the secular trend towards increased stature is supported by the significant negative correlation between stature and the coefficient of inbreeding in 70 departments of France. This phenomenon is especially evident after the onset of puberty, (r at age 7 = ?0.25 for boys: ?0.24 for girls; but r at age 14 = ?0.44 for boys and ?0.56 for girls) and is found also in adults.     

Stature loss among an older United States population and its relation to bone mineral status

Age-related statural loss has been recorded but incompletely assessed in modern populations. In this study, data collected on stature during annual bone mineral assessments are analyzed for 1,024 Caucasian individuals from southern Arizona. Continued stabilization in reported maximum heights is seen in this population. With advancing age there is a gradual decrease in height apparently beginning in the mid-40s. Thereafter, there is a relatively rapid decrease in measured height. This contrasts to the much slower rates predicted from earlier populations (Trotter and Gleser: American Journal of Physical Anthropology 9:311-324, 1951). The rate of stature loss is associated with diminution of bone mineral density as well as with maximum height. Since there are suggestions of a secular trend toward greater reductions in bone mineral density, this study suggests there may be a secular trend toward an increase in statural loss with age.     

Trends in stature in the South Australian Aboriginal Murraylands

Millennial and secular changes in body height of prehistoric and recent Aboriginal South Australians are investigated. Skeletal remains of 55 male and 40 female individuals who were excavated at Roonka on the River Murray were dated from 9800 to 100 years BP. Stature was reconstructed by using humerus, femur, and tibia ratios to stature derived from Abbie's (1975) data on living Aborigines and the Trotter-Gleser method for blacks. The respective averages were 1,652 mm and 1,665 mm for males and 1,527 mm and 1,549 mm for females. In 1996/1997, statures of 27 adult males and 21 adult females were measured in Aboriginal centers of Gerard and Raukkan (Point McLeay) on the Lower River Murray. These people, as far as it can be ascertained, are the descendants of the people from Roonka. Their statures were adjusted for the stature loss with age, so that the data represent young individuals (≤30 years of age). The average male stature was 1,712 mm, and the average female stature was 1,567 mm. Data collected by Wood Jones and Campbell in 1924 for Aboriginal South Australians show that young adult male stature was 1,668 mm (n = 6), and female stature was 1,552 mm (n = 4). Slopes of regressions of individual statures on radiocarbon dates and on dates of birth are not significantly different from zero. The same is true for regressions of individual long bone lengths on radiocarbon dates. It can be concluded that there was little change in stature of Aboriginal South Australians from prehistoric to recent times. Regressions of individual age-corrected heights on birth dates (1860–1980) of Aboriginal men and women measured in 1924 and in 1996 further indicate no significant increase in height in either sex. Am J Phys Anthropol 106:505–514, 1998. © 1998 Wiley-Liss, Inc.     

Growth variation, final height and secular trend. Proceedings of the 17th Aschauer Soiree, 7th November 2009

Growth and body height have always been topics interesting to the public. In particular, the stupendous increase of some 15-19 cm in final adult height during the last 150 years in most European countries (the “secular trend”), the concomitant changes in body and head proportions, the tendency towards early onset of sexual maturation, the changes in the age when final height is being reached, and the very recent trend in body mass index, have generated much scientific literature. The marked plasticity of growth in height and weight over time causes problems. Child growth references differ between nations, they tend to quickly become out of date, and raise a number of questions regarding fitting methods, effects caused by selective drop-out, etc. New findings contradict common beliefs about the primary importance of nutritional and health related factors for secular changes in growth. There appears to be a broad age span from mid-childhood to early adolescence that is characterised by a peculiar insusceptibility. Environmental factors that are known to influence growth during this age span appear to have only little or no impact on final height. Major re-arrangements in height occur at an age when puberty has almost been completed and final height has almost been reached, implying that factors, which drive the secular trend in height, are limited to early childhood and late adolescence.     

Are changes in body dimensions of adult females from Italy (Sardinia and Latium) related to secular trend?

This paper presents secular changes in height, weight, sitting height, relative sitting height, BMI and estimated lower limb length in two samples of Italian adult females from Sardinia (Cagliari) and Latium (Rieti). The samples consist of 579 healthy women from the province of Cagliari and 138 from the town of Rieti, aged 20.0-39.9 years, measured in the period 2003-2006. The women were divided into four 5-year age groups. The anthropometric variables were considered according to different socioeconomic status (SES) in the Cagliari sample, while the Rieti sample was considered as a whole, as the SES was homogeneous. ANOVA results suggest that the secular trend was very slow or had come to a halt in the Rieti sample but continues in the Cagliari sample, as shown by the statistically significant differences for estimated lower limb length (p≤0.02), and relative sitting height (p≤0.05). However, these differences disappear after ANCOVA with sibship size and socioeconomic status controlled for, suggesting that they depend mainly on the composition of the Cagliari sample in terms of SES. Therefore, it can be hypothesised that the secular trend might be very slow or has stopped in the Cagliari subsamples homogeneous for SES.