Relative roles of density-dependent and density-independent factors in population dynamics of British deer

It has become increasingly clear that both density-dependent and density-independent factors may influence the dynamics of mammalian populations; it remains more difficult, however, to determine which factors may play the more significant role in influencing population number in any particular case. In this paper we review published and unpublished data in an analysis of the various factors affecting population size and trend in three European species of deer: Red Deer ( Cervus elaphus ), Fallow Deer ( Dama damd ) and Roe Deer ( Capreolus capreolus). We select these species deliberately because they span a range of body size and reproductive strategy - it seems that different demographic parameters might thus play different roles in the dynamics of the three-which may also be differentially sensitive to the effects of density-dependent and density-independent factors. For each species we examine the available evidence to determine the relative roles and effects of density-dependent feedback mechanisms and density-independent factors such as climate on recruitment and mortality.
Despite differences in bionomic strategy between Red Deer (as essentially a K -strategist) and the more r-selected Roe, few differences emerge between the three species in the relative roles of density-dependent and density-independent factors - or of the stage at the life cycle at which each factor may act. Overall, however, it is clear that variation in density-independent factors, such as climate, appears primarily to affect levels of mortality within a population, while effects of density are particularly marked in relation to changes in recruitment.     

Population fluctuations, regulation and limitation in stream-living brown trout

Determining causes of variation in population size and identifying factors responsible for fluctuations in species abundance are crucial questions both in theoretical and applied ecology. Based on the analysis of abundance time series, many studies have concluded that population dynamics of the stream-living brown trout ( Salmo trutta L.) are mainly driven by year-to-year variation in the discharge level during emergence. Endogenous regulatory processes have often been considered as weak explanations for these fluctuations. This led some authors to consider that brown trout was able to persist in time with no operation of density-dependent processes. Using a model of population dynamics, we studied the influence of both discharge level during emergence and density-dependent regulatory processes on population limitation and fluctuations. We show that density-dependent and density-independent processes can act together on population density and stability at equilibrium (limitation process). We also show that the effects of internal feedbacks regulating population may often be invisible when analyzing abundance fluctuations at the interannual scale. Our results question the accuracy of studies based on the analysis of interannual fluctuations in abundance to identify processes driving population density at equilibrium.     

Behavioral responses to variations in population size: a stochastic evolutionary game

The effects of variations in population size may be importantin the evolution of individual behavior. We use simulation modelsto study the stochastic evolutionary contest between two behavioralstrategies affecting individual survival and reproduction, oneconservative (low fecundity and low mortality risk), the otherrisky (high fecundity and high mortality risk). Trade-offs ofthis kind are involved in many types of behavior, includingforaging under risk of predation, parental care, size versusnumber of offspring, and so on. We treat the combined effectsof demographic and environmental variance, demographic variancebeing important for small populations and environmental variancebeing important at all population levels. With high environmentalvariance, population numbers fluctuate sharply, so that demographicvariance becomes intermittently important. As a consequence,either behavioral morph may become fixed in the population,depending on initial conditions and on chance events. We treatboth phenotypic and genetic models. In a genetic model withthe heterozygote employing the risky strategy, both behavioralmorphs may coexist as a randomly fluctuating polymorphism.     

A Monte Carlo simulation model for studying evolution in age-structured populations

This model provides for any number of genotypes defined by age-specific survival and fecundity rates in a population with completely overlapping generations and growing under the control of density-governing functions affecting survival or fecundity. It is tested in situations involving two alleles at one locus. Nonselection populations at Hardy–Weinberg equilibrium obey the ecogenetic law; i.e., each genotype follows Lotka's law regarding rate of increase and stable age distribution as if it were an independent true-breeding population. Populations experiencing age- and density-independent selection approximate this situation, and the changes in gene frequency are predicted by relative fitnesses bases on λ, the finite rate of increase of the genotypes. Polymorphic gene equilibria occurring at steady-state population sizes are determined by fitnesses based on R, the net reproductive rate. In examples involving differences in generation time produced by age-dependent differences in fecundity, the allele associated with longer generation time may be favored or opposed by selection, depending on whether the density-governing factor controlling population size affects survival or fecundity. If such genotypes have similar R's, a genetic equilibrium may be established if the population is governed by a density function acting upon fecundity. Received: August 23, 1999 / Accepted: July 13, 2000     

Breeding phenology,variation in reproductive effort and offspring size in a tropical population of the woodlouse Porcellionides pruinosus

Summary Most species of woodlice in temperate habitats have discrete breeding seasons. It is hypothesised that breeding synchronises with favourable environmental conditions to maximise offspring growth and survivorship (Willows 1984). We measured the breeding phenology of a species introduced to a tropical environment, primarily to consider the assumption that life histories in the tropics will differ fundamentally from those in temperate habitats. In addition to breeding phenology we considered variation in reproductive effort between individual females and the division of this effort between the size and number of young.A continuous breeding phenology was observed in a synanthropic population of Porcellionides pruinosus within the tropics. Reproductive effort varied between months, showed a weak relationship with female size and was independent of female fecundity. Female sizefecundity relationships varied between samples and when the proportion of reproductive females was high size-fecundity slopes were steeper than at other times. Mean offspring size varied between months and there was a wide range in offspring size within broods. Offspring size was not related to female body mass, reproductive effort or fecundity; consequently brood mass increased linearly with an increase in fecundity. Increased reproductive effort goes into more rather than larger offspring.We propose that the continuous breeding in this population was the result of the constant presence of an environmental cue to reproduction evolved in temperate habitats. Continuous breeding is not necessarily equivocal to high individual reproductive success even though overall population growth may be rapid. However, variation in reproductive effort suggests that individuals respond to current environmental conditions on short time scales.     

Coinfection and infection duration shape how pathogens affect the African buffalo gut microbiota

Changes in the gut microbiota during pathogen infection are often predicted to influence disease outcomes. However, studies exploring whether pathogens induce microbiota shifts have yielded inconsistent results. This suggests that variation in infection, rather than the presence of infection alone, might shape pathogen–microbiota relationships. For example, most hosts are coinfected with multiple pathogens simultaneously, and hosts vary in how long they are infected, which may amplify or diminish microbial shifts expected in response to a focal pathogen. We used a longitudinal anthelmintic treatment study of free-ranging African buffalo (Syncerus caffer) to examine whether (i) coinfection with bovine tuberculosis (Mycobacterium bovis, TB) and gastrointestinal nematodes, and (ii) the duration of TB infection, modified effects of single pathogens on the gut microbiota. By accounting for the interaction between TB and nematodes, we found that coinfection affected changes in microbial abundance associated with single infections. Furthermore, the duration of TB infection predicted more microbiota variation than the presence of TB. Importantly, coinfection and infection duration had nearly as much influence on microbial patterns as demographic and environmental factors commonly examined in microbiota research. These findings demonstrate that acknowledging infection heterogeneities may be crucial to understanding relationships between pathogens and the gut microbiota.Subject terms: Microbiome, Infectious diseases     

CONSEQUENCES OF FLORAL VARIATION FOR MALE AND FEMALE REPRODUCTION IN EXPERIMENTAL POPULATIONS OF WILD RADISH,RAPHANUS SATIVUS L

We documented effects of floral variation on seed paternity and maternal fecundity in a series of small experimental populations of wild radish, R. sativus. Each population was composed of two competing pollen donor groups with contrasting floral morphologies and several designated maternal plants. Progeny testing with electrophoretic markers allowed us to measure paternal success. Realized fecundity by each maternal plant and the fraction of those seeds attributable to each pollen donor group were used as outcome variables in path analysis to explore relationships between floral characters (petal size, pollen grain number per flower, and modal pollen grain size), pollinator visitation patterns, and reproductive success. A wide range of pollinator taxa visited the experimental populations, and patterns of discrimination appeared to vary among them. The impact of visitation on male and female reproduction also varied among taxa; visits of small native bees significantly increased paternal success, while those of honey bees reduced male fitness. Only visits by large native bees had discernible effects on recipient fecundity, and, overall, fecundity was not limited by visitation. Maternal plants bearing large-petalled flowers produced fewer flowers during the experiment, reducing their total seed production. In these small populations, postpollination processes (at least in part, compatibility) significantly influenced male and female reproductive success. Variation in pollinator pools occurring on both spatial and temporal scales may act to preserve genetic variation for floral traits in this species.     

Survival-variation within and between functional categories of the African multimammate rat

1. By identifying ecological factors specific to functional categories of individuals, it may be possible to understand the mechanisms underlying life-history evolution and population dynamics. While empirical analyses within the field of population biology have focused on changes in population size, theoretical models assuming differential sensitivities of population growth rate or fitness to demographic parameters have mostly been untested, particularly against data on small mammals.
2. Statistical modelling of capture–mark–recapture data on the multimammate rat ( Mastomys natalensis ) from Tanzania shows that: (i) females survive slightly better than males and subadults survive much better than adults; (ii) temporal variation of survival of all individuals is similarly related to the rainfall of the month; (iii) subadults exhibit a strongly density-dependent low persistence rate in the population immediately after their first capture; (iv) subadults survival in later months is, however, positively related to density; and (v) adult survival shows negative density-dependence.
3. Both density-dependent and density-independent factors simultaneously determine stage-dependent survival variation of the multimammate rat. Whereas environmental factors in this population seem to affect survival rates of all individuals in a similar manner, density-dependent relationships are more complex.
4. The patterns of survival variation in small mammals may be different from those observed in large mammals.
5. Further studies of demography in small mammals should aim at understanding how much of the variability in population growth rate is accounted for by the variability of the demographic rates resulting from limiting (density-independent) and regulating (density-dependent) factors, respectively. This study emphasizes the use of robust and accurate statistical methods as well as stage- or age-structured population modelling.     

Impact of density and environmental factors on population fluctuations in a migratory passerine

1. Populations of plants and animals typically fluctuate because of the combined effects of density-dependent and density-independent processes. The study of these processes is complicated by the fact that population sizes are typically not known exactly, because population counts are subject to sampling variance. Although the existence of sampling variance is broadly acknowledged, relatively few studies on time-series data have accounted for it, which can result in wrong inferences about population processes. 2. To increase our understanding of population dynamics, we analysed time series from six Central European populations of the migratory red-backed shrike Lanius collurio by simultaneously assessing the strength of density dependence, process and sampling variance. In addition, we evaluated hypotheses predicting effects of factors presumed to operate on the breeding grounds, at stopover sites in eastern Africa during fall and spring migration and in the wintering grounds in southern Africa. We used both simple and state-space formulations of the Gompertz equation to model population size. 3. Across populations and modelling approaches, we found consistent evidence for negative density-dependent population regulation. Further, process variance contributed substantially to variation in population size, while sampling variance did not. Environmental conditions in eastern and southern Africa appear to influence breeding population size, as rainfall in the Sahel during fall migration and in the south African wintering areas were positively related to population size in the following spring in four of six populations. In contrast, environmental conditions in the breeding grounds were not related to population size. 4. Our findings suggest negative density-dependent regulation of red-backed shrike breeding populations and are consistent with the long-standing hypothesis that conditions in the African staging and wintering areas influence population numbers of species breeding in Europe. 5. This study highlights the importance of jointly investigating density-dependent and density-independent processes to improve our understanding of factors influencing population fluctuations in space and time.     

Geographical variation in offspring size effects across generations

Offspring size is thought to strongly affect offspring fitness and many studies have shown strong offspring size/fitness relationships in marine and terrestrial organisms. This relationship is strongly mitigated by local environmental conditions and the optimal offspring size that mothers should produce will vary among different environments. It is assumed that offspring size will consistently affect the same traits among populations but this assumption has not been tested. Here I use a common garden experiment to examine the effects of offspring size on subsequent performance for the marine bryozoan Bugula neritina using larvae from two very different populations. The local conditions at one population (Williamstown) favour early reproduction whereas the other population (Pt. Wilson) favours early growth. Despite being placed in the same habitat, the effects of parental larval size were extremely variable and crossed generations. For larvae from Williamstown, parental larval size positively affected initial colony growth and larval size in the next generation. For larvae from the other population, parental larval size positively affected colony fecundity and negatively affected larval size in the next generation. Traditionally, exogenous factors have been viewed as the sole source of variation in offspring size/fitness relationship but these results show that endogenous factors (maternal source population) can also cause variation in this crucial relationship. It appears offspring size effects can be highly variable among populations and organisms can adapt to local conditions without changing the size of their offspring.     

On harvesting a structured ungulate population

Variation in demographic rates within a spatially structured population could have important consequences for management decisions, harvesting strategies and offtake rates. Although there is a growing body of evidence suggesting that demographic rates vary within populations over a range of spatial scales, there has been little research investigating the consequences of this variation for population management. In this paper, data on the dynamics of two female red deer sub-populations on Rum are analysed, and evidence is presented for differences between the fecundity and mortality rates of the two sub-populations. A simple harvesting model is developed to represent the dynamics of the two sub-populations, including density-independent migration between sub-populations and spatially correlated environmental variability. The highest monetary yield in the model is obtained by harvesting the more resilient sub-population at a higher rate. Surprisingly the losses involved in harvesting both sub-populations at the same rate are insignificant. However, if migration were density-dependent, the size of one sub-population would be more relevant to harvesting policy for the other sub-population. The results of this empirical study are compared to theoretical work on spatially structured populations; it is shown that when a species has complex age- and sex-structured population dynamics, previous theoretical results may not hold.     

Latitudinal variation in fecundity among Arctic charr populations in eastern North America

Variation in fecundity was examined from 32 populations of Arctic charr Salvelinus alpinus in eastern North America covering a range of 37° latitude and extending from Maine, U.S.A., to northern Ellesmere Island in the Canadian Arctic. Populations were classed as dwarf, normal or anadromous and covered a suite of different habitat and climatic regimes. Fecundity varied with fork length ( L _F), with L _F adjusted fecundity differing significantly among populations within each of the morphotypes implying that fecundity was a continuously responsive trait influenced by local environmental factors. Latitudinal variation in fecundity was also evident among morphotypes when the simultaneous effects of both latitude and L _F were controlled. There was a significant trade‐off between fecundity and egg size in two of five populations of anadromous Arctic charr, but no evidence in limited data from either normal or dwarf populations. In contrast with some other studies of fecundity in salmonids, there was no evidence for a latitudinal cline in egg size.     

Inbreeding levels and prey abundance interact to determine fecundity in natural populations of two species of wolf spider

Long-term effective population size is expected, and has been shown, to correlate positively with various measures of population fitness. Here we examine the interacting effects of population size (as a surrogate for genetic factors) and prey consumption rates (as a surrogate for environmental quality) on fecundity in two sympatric species of wolf spider, Rabidosa punctulata and Rabidosa rabida. Population size was estimated in each of seven genetically isolated populations in each of 3 years using mark-recapture methods. Fecundity was estimated as the mean number of live offspring produced by ∼15 females sampled from each population of each species each year for 3 years. Prey consumption rates were estimated by sampling ∼300 spiders per population per year and assaying the proportion of spiders with prey. Larger populations have higher fecundity and more genetic diversity than smaller populations. Variation among populations in fecundity for a given year could be attributed most strongly to differences in population size, with variation in prey consumption rates and the interaction between population size and prey consumption playing smaller but still important roles. During the most stressful environmental conditions, the smallest populations of both species experienced disproportionately low-fecundity rates, more than doubling the estimated number of lethal equivalents during those years. The evidence presented in this paper for inbreeding-environment interactions at the population level and further evidence for a log-linear relationship between population size and fitness have important implications for conservation.     

Demographic response of plant populations to habitat fragmentation and temporal environmental variability

Many plant species currently exist in fragmented populations of different sizes, while they also experience unpredictable climatic fluctuation over time. However, we still understand little about how plant demography responds to such spatial and temporal environmental variability. We studied population dynamics of an understory perennial herb Trillium camschatcense in the Tokachi plain of Hokkaido, Japan, where a significant effect of forest fragmentation on seedling recruitment was previously reported. Four populations across a range of fragment sizes were studied for 6 years, and the data were analyzed using matrix population models. Per capita fecundity (the number of recruits per plant) varied greatly among populations, but the variation in population growth rates (λ) was mainly driven by the variation in stasis and growth rates, suggesting that the general trend of reduced fecundity in fragmented populations may not be readily translated into subsequent dynamics. Temporal variation in λ among years was more than 2 times larger than spatial variation among populations, and this result was likely attributable to the contrasting response of correlation structures among demographic rates. The among-population variation in λ was dampened by negative covariation between matrix elements possibly due to density-dependent regulation as well as an inherent constraint that some elements are not independent, whereas positive covariation between matrix elements resulted in large temporal variation in λ. Our results show that population dynamics responded differently to habitat fragmentation and temporal variability of the environment, emphasizing the need to discriminate these spatial and temporal variations in demographic models. Although no populations were projected to be declining in stochastic simulations, correlation between current habitat size and plant density implies historical λ is positively related to habitat size.     

Biology, not environment, drives major patterns in maximum tetrapod body size through time

Abiotic and biological factors have been hypothesized as controlling maximum body size of tetrapods and other animals through geological time. We analyse the effects of three abiotic factors--oxygen, temperature and land area--on maximum size of Permian-Jurassic archosauromorphs and therapsids, and Cenozoic mammals, using time series generalized least-squares regression models. We also examine maximum size growth curves for the Permian-Jurassic data by comparing fits of Gompertz and logistic models. When serial correlation is removed, we find no robust correlations, indicating that these environmental factors did not consistently control tetrapod maximum size. Gompertz models--i.e. exponentially decreasing rate of size increase at larger sizes--fit maximum size curves far better than logistic models. This suggests that biological limits such as reduced fecundity and niche space availability become increasingly limiting as larger sizes are reached. Environmental factors analysed may still have imposed an upper limit on tetrapod body size, but any environmentally imposed limit did not vary substantially during the intervals examined despite variation in these environmental factors.     

A single climate driver has direct and indirect effects on insect population dynamics

Weather drives population dynamics directly, through effects on vital rates, or indirectly, through effects on the population's competitors, predators or prey and thence on vital rates. Indirect effects may include non-additive interactions with density dependence. Detection of climate drivers is critical to predicting climate change effects, but identification of potential drivers may depend on knowing the underlying mechanisms. For the butterfly Speyeria mormonia, one climate driver, snow melt date, has multiple effects on population growth. Snow melt date in year t has density-dependent indirect effects. Through frost effects, early snow melt decreases floral resources, thence per-capita nectar availability, which determines fecundity in the lab. Snow melt date in year t?+?1 has density-independent direct effects. These effects explain 84% of the variation in population growth rate. One climate parameter thus has multiple effects on the dynamics of a species with non-overlapping generations, with one effect not detectable without understanding the underlying mechanism.     

Age structure, growth, mortality, and density of belugas (Delphinapterus leucas) in the Canadian Arctic: responses to environment?

Environmental constraints on life-history traits are expected to increase with seasonality in resources such as food and appropriate breeding habitat. Seasonality is highest at polar latitudes, where environmental constraints can be stronger than biotic factors, such as density and its effect on intraspecific competition. In this study, the age structure, body-length distribution, mortality, and density were studied and compared among five beluga populations of the Canadian Arctic: eastern Beaufort Sea (EBS), Baffin Bay (BB), Cumberland Sound (CS), western (WHB), and eastern Hudson (EHB) Bay, to test the prediction that density-dependent effects on these life-history traits should be inversely related to latitude. Growth, but not mortality, showed a significant positive relationship with latitude. Winter density also increased with winter latitude, consistent with the prediction of greater risk of mortality associated with density-independent effects, such as ice entrapment in winter. Age distributions differed among populations, with animals harvested at the highest-latitude population (EBS) being the oldest and attaining the longest adult body lengths, compared to lower-latitude populations (WHB and EHB). The latitudinal variation in growth, adult body size, and winter density is congruent with the hypothesis that environmental seasonality may impose stronger constraints on life-history traits of beluga with increasing latitude.     

RELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN GENETIC VARIABILITY AND LIFE-HISTORY FEATURES OF BONY FISHES

Correlations between genetic variation and life-history variables were obtained for 80 species of bony fishes as a means of testing the hypothesis that genetic variation is directly related to 1) opportunity for balancing selection, as indicated by fecundity, and 2) environmental variation, as indicated by capacity for population increase. Genetic data were taken from the literature, and data on longevity, age at maturity, egg size, body size, and lifetime fecundity were taken from the literature where available and were otherwise estimated from other variables. Average heterozygosity does not increase significantly with increasing fecundity. However, heterozygosity is significantly associated with short generation times, quick maturation, small maximum size, and small eggs. Thus, heterozygosity appears to increase on a demographic continuum toward maximum values in species that are most strongly selected for maximizing the intrinsic rate of increase. Such species are associated with less stable environments. Thus, the results indicate a predominate role for environmental variation in controlling genetic variation of bony fishes.     

Inter- and intra-specific patterns of density dependence and population size variability in Salmoniformes

Population dynamics are typically affected by a combination of density-independent and density-dependent factors, the latter of which have been conceptually and theoretically linked with how variable population sizes are over time—which in turn has been tied to how prone populations are to extinction. To address evidence for the occurrence of density dependence and its relationship with population size variability (pv), we quantified each of these for 126 populations of 8 species of Salmoniformes. Using random-effects models, we partitioned variation in the strength of density dependence and the magnitude of pv between and within species and estimated the correlation of density dependence and population size variability at both the between- and within-species levels. We found that variation in the strength of density dependence was predominately within species (I ² = 0.47). In contrast, variation in population size variability was distributed both between and within species (I ² = 0.40). Contrary to theoretical and conceptual expectations, the strength of density dependence and the magnitude of population size variability were positively correlated at the between species level (r = 0.90), although this estimate had 95 % credibility intervals (Bayesian analogues to confidence intervals) that overlapped zero. The within-species correlation between density dependence and population size variability was not distinguishable from zero. Given that density dependence for Salmoniformes was highly variable within species, we next determined the joint effects of intrinsic (density-dependent) and extrinsic (density-independent) factors on the population dynamics of a threatened salmonid, the Lahontan cutthroat trout (Oncorhynchus clarkii henshawi). We found that density-dependent and -independent factors additively contributed to population dynamics. This finding suggests that the observed within-species variability in density dependence might be attributable to local differences in the strength of density-independent factors.     

EVOLUTIONARY RESPONSES TO ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGES: HOW DOES COMPETITION AFFECT ADAPTATION?

The role and importance of ecological interactions for evolutionary responses to environmental changes is to large extent unknown. Here it is shown that interspecific competition may slow down rates of adaptation substantially and fundamentally change patterns of adaptation to long-term environmental changes. In the model investigated here, species compete for resources distributed along an ecological niche space. Environmental change is represented by a slowly moving resource maximum and evolutionary responses of single species are compared with responses of coalitions of two and three competing species. In scenarios with two and three species, species that are favored by increasing resource availability increase in equilibrium population size whereas disfavored species decline in size. Increased competition makes it less favorable for individuals of a disfavored species to occupy a niche close to the maximum and reduces the selection pressure for tracking the moving resource distribution. Individual-based simulations and an analysis using adaptive dynamics show that the combination of weaker selection pressure and reduced population size reduces the evolutionary rate of the disfavored species considerably. If the resource landscape moves stochastically, weak evolutionary responses cause large fluctuations in population size and thereby large extinction risk for competing species, whereas a single species subject to the same environmental variability may track the resource maximum closely and maintain a much more stable population size. Other studies have shown that competitive interactions may amplify changes in mean population sizes due to environmental changes and thereby increase extinction risks. This study accentuates the harmful role of competitive interactions by illustrating that they may also decrease rates of adaptation. The slowdown in evolutionary rates caused by competition may also contribute to explain low rates of morphological change in spite of large environmental fluctuations found in fossil records.