Oceanographic and atmospheric phenomena influence the abundance of whale sharks at Ningaloo Reef, Western Australia

Seasonal observations of whale shark abundance recorded by ecotourist operators at Ningaloo Reef, Western Australia from 1999 to 2004 were compared with weekly regional and global oceanographic and atmospheric variables, including average sea surface temperatures, along-shelf wind shear, sea level and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). Estimates of these physical variables were derived from either ground-based data or from remote sensing instruments. A generalised linear mixed-effects modelling (GLMM) approach with random sampling and model simulation was used to determine the relationships between the number of whale sharks and all model variants of the environmental parameters, using information-theoretic weights of evidence to rank models. SOI and wind shear had the most support for explaining the deviance in weekly whale shark abundance at Ningaloo Reef during a season. The SOI and wind shear variables positively influenced whale shark abundance such that more sharks were sighted when the Southern Oscillation was stronger and along-shelf winds were increasingly prevalent. This may reflect changes in the strength of oceanographic processes such as the Leeuwin Current (in response to the Southern Oscillation) and wind/current driven upwelling which may affect the abundance of whale sharks transported to the region and/or the availability of their prey by driving productivity changes.     

A review of the biology and ecology of the whale shark

The information available on the biology and ecology of the whale shark is reviewed, and is updated from material published since 1986. Research work carried out on the seasonal aggregation of whale sharks at the Ningaloo Reef in Western Australia is summarized. Future research studies on whale sharks in the Ningaloo Marine Park are discussed in the context of management of sustainable whale shark interaction tourism.     

Multi-Year Impacts of Ecotourism on Whale Shark (Rhincodon typus) Visitation at Ningaloo Reef,Western Australia

In-water viewing of sharks by tourists has become a popular and lucrative industry. There is some concern that interactions with tourists with ecotourism operations might harm sharks through disruption of behaviours. Here, we analysed five years of whale shark (Rhincodon typus) encounter data by an ecotourism industry at Ningaloo Reef, Western Australia, to assess the impact of ecotourism interactions on shark visitation, within the context of the biological and physical oceanography of the region. Our data base consisted of 2823 encounter records for 951 individual whale sharks collected by ecotourism operators between 2007 and 2011. We found that total encounters per whale shark and encounters per boat trip increased through time. On average, whale sharks re-encountered in subsequent years were encountered earlier, stayed longer and tended to be encountered more often within a season than sharks that were only encountered in a single year. Sequential comparisons between years did not show any patterns consistent with disturbance and the rate of departure of whale sharks from the aggregation was negatively correlated to the number of operator trips. Overall, our analysis of this multi-year data base found no evidence that interactions with tourists affected the likelihood of whale shark re-encounters and that instead, physical and biological environmental factors had a far greater influence on whale shark visitation rates. Our approach provides a template for assessing the effects of ecotourism interactions and environmental factors on the visitation patterns of marine megafauna over multiple years.     

The Seasonal Aggregation of Whale Sharks at Ningaloo Reef, Western Australia: Currents, Migrations and the El Niño/ Southern Oscillation

Whale sharks, Rhincodon typus, seasonally aggregate in coastal waters off Ningaloo Reef, Western Australia. We review the oceanographic setting of the region and present evidence that such aggregations form as a result of migratory behavior associated with climatic and oceanographic processes. We utilise records of whale shark abundance collected at Ningaloo Reef from dedicated searches by boat and aircraft and from log sheets recorded by the tourism industry. Measures of whale shark abundance derived from log sheet data sets were moderately correlated with the Southern Oscillation Index and weakly correlated with coastal sea level, an index of the strength of the Leeuwin Current, and sea surface temperature over the period 1993 to 1998. Abundances of whale sharks derived from boat searches from 1983 to 1992 were also correlated with fluctuations in the Southern Oscillation Index, except during a three year period from 1988 to 1990. We conclude that, at least in some years, there appears to be a link between the abundance of aggregating whale sharks and the physical and biological oceanography of the region, with greater whale shark numbers in La Niña years. The lack of correlation in other years may be due to a combination of uneven quality of data and/or aggregations occurring in response to a complex interaction between the physical and biological oceanography of the region.     

Ocean‐scale prediction of whale shark distribution

Aim Predicting distribution patterns of whale sharks (Rhincodon typus, Smith 1828) in the open ocean remains elusive owing to few pelagic records. We developed multivariate distribution models of seasonally variant whale shark distributions derived from tuna purse‐seine fishery data. We tested the hypotheses that whale sharks use a narrow temperature range, are more abundant in productive waters and select sites closer to continents than the open ocean. Location Indian Ocean. Methods We compared a 17‐year time series of observations of whale sharks associated with tuna purse‐seine sets with chlorophyll a concentration and sea surface temperature data extracted from satellite images. Different sets of pseudo‐absences based on random distributions, distance to shark locations and tuna catch were generated to account for spatiotemporal variation in sampling effort and probability of detection. We applied generalized linear, spatial mixed‐effects and Maximum Entropy models to predict seasonal variation in habitat suitability and produced maps of distribution. Results The saturated generalized linear models including bathymetric slope, depth, distance to shore, the quadratic of mean sea surface temperature, sea surface temperature variance and chlorophyll a had the highest relative statistical support, with the highest percent deviance explained when using random pseudo‐absences with fixed effect‐only models and the tuna pseudo‐absences with mixed‐effects models (e.g. 58% and 26% in autumn, respectively). Maximum Entropy results suggested that whale sharks responded mainly to variation in depth, chlorophyll a and temperature in all seasons. Bathymetric slope had only a minor influence on the presence. Main conclusions Whale shark habitat suitability in the Indian Ocean is mainly correlated with spatial variation in sea surface temperature. The relative influence of this predictor provides a basis for predicting habitat suitability in the open ocean, possibly giving insights into the migratory behaviour of the world’s largest fish. Our results also provide a baseline for temperature‐dependent predictions of distributional changes in the future.     

Movement Patterns of Juvenile Whale Sharks Tagged at an Aggregation Site in the Red Sea

Conservation efforts aimed at the whale shark, Rhincodon typus, remain limited by a lack of basic information on most aspects of its ecology, including global population structure, population sizes and movement patterns. Here we report on the movements of 47 Red Sea whale sharks fitted with three types of satellite transmitting tags from 2009–2011. Most of these sharks were tagged at a single aggregation site near Al-Lith, on the central coast of the Saudi Arabian Red Sea. Individuals encountered at this site were all juveniles based on size estimates ranging from 2.5–7 m total length with a sex ratio of approximately 1∶1. All other known aggregation sites for juvenile whale sharks are dominated by males. Results from tagging efforts showed that most individuals remained in the southern Red Sea and that some sharks returned to the same location in subsequent years. Diving data were recorded by 37 tags, revealing frequent deep dives to at least 500 m and as deep as 1360 m. The unique temperature-depth profiles of the Red Sea confirmed that several whale sharks moved out of the Red Sea while tagged. The wide-ranging horizontal movements of these individuals highlight the need for multinational, cooperative efforts to conserve R. typus populations in the Red Sea and Indian Ocean.     

Ensemble modeling of the potential distribution of the whale shark in the Atlantic Ocean

The whale shark (Rhincodon typus) is an endangered marine fish species which can be adversely affected by the fishing activities of the industrial purse seine fleet targeting tropical tuna. Tuna tend to aggregate around all types of floating objects, including whale sharks. We analyzed and modeled the spatial distribution and environmental preferences of whale sharks based on the presence and absence data from fishing observations in the Atlantic Ocean. We used a thorough multialgorithm analysis, based on a new presence–absence dataset, and endeavored to follow the most recent recommendations on best practices in species distribution modeling. First, we selected a subset of relevant variables using a generalized linear model that addressed multicollinearity, statistical errors, and information criteria. We then used the selected variables to build a model ensemble including 19 different algorithms. After eliminating models with insufficient performance, we assessed the potential distribution of whale sharks using the mean of the predictions of the selected models. We also assessed the variance among the predictions of different algorithms, in order to identify areas with the highest model consensus. The results show that several coastal regions and warm shallow currents, such as the Gulf Stream and the Canary and Benguela currents, are the most suitable areas for whale sharks under current environmental conditions. Future environmental projections for the Atlantic Ocean suggest that some of the suitable regions will shift northward, but current concentration areas will continue to be suitable for whale shark, although with less productivity, which could have negative consequences for conservation of the species. We discuss the implications of these predictions for the conservation and management of this charismatic marine species.     

Habitat suitability of Rhincodon typus in three localities of the Gulf of California: Environmental drivers of seasonal aggregations

The whale shark is an endangered species that usually feeds in coastal areas of highly productive seas such as the Gulf of California, Mexico. This study aims to describe the effect of sea surface temperature, chlorophyll a, bathymetry and slope on the habitat suitability of whale sharks in three important aggregation sites of the Gulf of California. A total of 2396 records of occurrence of whale sharks were obtained from international databases and scientific literature between 1996 and 2018. These records were used for the creation of a species distribution model using MaxEnt for each of the three aggregation sites. The concentration of chlorophyll a explained 71% of the habitat suitability, followed by bathymetry and slope with a combined 17%, and sea surface temperature constituting 10% of the model. Habitat suitability was related to areas where nontargeted fisheries may impact whale sharks through bycatch, entanglement and ship strikes. The implications for the conservation of whale sharks should be considered for management decisions in terms of marine protected areas, fishing refugees or bans, and other regulations regarding fisheries activities.     

Do they stay or do they go? Acoustic monitoring of whale sharks at Ningaloo Marine Park,Western Australia

Whale sharks Rhincodon typus were monitored via acoustic transmitters at the northern end of Western Australia's Ningaloo Marine Park to establish the extent to which the species inhabits the region beyond the whale‐shark ecotourism industry season, which usually extends from March to August in each year. Despite the vast majority (c. 98%) of photographic submissions of R. typus from Ningaloo Reef being between March and August, acoustic detections from the tagged R. typus at Ningaloo were recorded in all months of the year, but do not preclude the occurrence of extended absences. It is concluded that as a species, R. typus occurs year round at Ningaloo, where it generally remains in close proximity to the reef edge, but that some individuals move outside of the detection range of the array for extended periods.     

Feeding habits of the whale shark (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Rhincodon typus</Emphasis>) inferred by fatty acid profiles in the northern Mexican Caribbean

Whale shark (Rhincodon typus, Smith, 1828) is an endangered species with anthropogenic pressures due to increasing demand of encounter tourism activities. Research efforts to identify management and conservation strategies for this species are needed. The Northern Mexican Caribbean is one of the most important feeding aggregation sites of whale sharks worldwide. In this study, Mexican Caribbean whale shark feeding habits are assessed by means of fatty acid (FA) signature analysis, a biochemical non-destructive technique widely applied in trophic ecology studies. Sub-dermal tissue biopsies of 68 whale sharks and samples of their potential prey (zooplankton) were collected during 2010 and 2011 in two areas with high R. typus abundance. Zooplankton samples (n?=?17) were divided in two categories: mixed zooplankton (several groups of zooplankton) and fish eggs (> 95% of sample components were fish eggs). FA profiles of whale shark tissue sampled between years showed significant variability; while there was no intraspecific differences in FA signature related to sex, size and location. FA profiles of whale sharks and their potential prey were dominated by saturated fatty acids (SFA). R. typus FA signature was significantly different from that of mixed zooplankton; on the other hand, whale shark and fish egg FA profiles formed groups with overlapping values and registered high levels of oleic acid. PUFA average ω3/ ω6 ratio on whale shark FA profiles for both years was below 1. Arachidonic acid (ARA) percentage was higher in whale shark biopsies (13.2% in 2010, 6.8% in 2011) compared to values observed in fish eggs (2.0%) and mixed zooplankton (1.4%). Similarity between FA profiles of whale sharks and fish eggs, low levels of bacterial FA found in R. typus biopsies, as well as whale shark feeding behavior observations in the study area, suggest that R. typus is feeding mainly on surface zooplankton in Mexican Caribbean; however, elevated ARA percentages in whale shark samples may indicate that this species has complementary feeding sources, such as demersal zooplankton, which has been reported in other aggregation sites. Results obtained contribute to the knowledge of the whale shark trophic ecology in the area, but are inconclusive. Further studies are recommended to evaluate whale shark FA profiles from different tissues (muscle or blood); also, broader information is needed about zooplankton FA signature in the study area.     

Regional movements of satellite‐tagged whale sharks Rhincodon typus in the Gulf of Aden

To gain insight into whale shark (Rhincodon typus) movement patterns in the Western Indian Ocean, we deployed eight pop‐up satellite tags at an aggregation site in the Arta Bay region of the Gulf of Tadjoura, Djibouti in the winter months of 2012, 2016, and 2017. Tags revealed movements ranging from local‐scale around the Djibouti aggregation site, regional movements along the coastline of Somaliland, movements north into the Red Sea, and a large‐scale (>1,000 km) movement to the east coast of Somalia, outside of the Gulf of Aden. Vertical movement data revealed high occupation of the top ten meters of the water column, diel vertical movement patterns, and deep diving behavior. Long‐distance movements recorded both here and in previous studies suggest that connectivity between the whale sharks tagged at the Djibouti aggregation and other documented aggregations in the region are likely within annual timeframes. In addition, wide‐ranging movements through multiple nations, as well as the high use of surface waters recorded, likely exposes whale sharks in this region to several anthropogenic threats, including targeted and bycatch fisheries and ship‐strikes. Area‐based management approaches focusing on seasonal hotspots offer a way forward in the conservation of whale sharks in the Western Indian Ocean.     

Straight as an arrow: humpback whales swim constant course tracks during long-distance migration

Humpback whale seasonal migrations, spanning greater than 6500 km of open ocean, demonstrate remarkable navigational precision despite following spatially and temporally distinct migration routes. Satellite-monitored radio tag-derived humpback whale migration tracks in both the South Atlantic and South Pacific include constant course segments of greater than 200 km, each spanning several days of continuous movement. The whales studied here maintain these directed movements, often with better than 1° precision, despite the effects of variable sea-surface currents. Such remarkable directional precision is difficult to explain by established models of directional orientation, suggesting that alternative compass mechanisms should be explored.     

Scarring patterns and relative mortality rates of Indian Ocean whale sharks

This study recorded the scarring rate and severity for whale sharks Rhincodon typus from three Indian Ocean aggregations (Australia, Seychelles and Mozambique), and examined whether scarring (mostly attributed to boat strikes and predator attacks) influences apparent survival rates using photo‐identification libraries. Identifications were based on spot‐and‐stripe patterns that are unique to individual whale sharks. Scarring was most prevalent in the Seychelles aggregation (67% of individuals). Predator bites were the most frequent source of scarring (aside from minor nicks and abrasions) and 27% of individuals had scars consistent with predator attacks. A similar proportion of whale sharks had blunt trauma, laceration and amputation scars, the majority of which appeared to be caused by ship collisions. Predator bites were more common (44% of individuals) and scars from ship collisions were less common at Ningaloo Reef than at the other two locations (probability of among‐site differences occurring randomly = 0·0007 based on a randomized multinomial contingency analysis). In all aggregations, scars occurred most often on the caudal fin, which may result from the fin being the body part closest to the surface when boats pass over, or they may provide a large target for predator attack. No evidence was found for an effect of scarring on apparent survival (φ; mean ±s .e .) for the Ningaloo (not scarred φ= 0·858 ± 0·033; scarred φ= 0·929 ± 0·033) or Seychelles populations (not scarred φ= 0·502 ± 0·060; scarred φ= 0·538 ± 0·070). The lower apparent survival of the Seychelles population may be attributed to a high number of transient whale sharks in this aggregation that might bias estimates. This study indicates that while scarring from natural predators and smaller vessels appears to be unrelated to whale shark survival, the effect of deaths related to ship strike need to be quantified to assist in future management of this species.     

Whale Shark (Rhincodon typus) Seasonal Presence,Residence Time and Habitat Use at Darwin Island,Galapagos Marine Reserve

The life history of the whale shark (Rhincodon typus), including its reproductive ecology, still remains largely unknown. Here, we present results from the first whale shark population study around Darwin Island, Galapagos Marine Reserve. Following a diversified approach we characterized seasonal occurrence, population structure and size, and described habitat use of whale sharks based on fine scale movements around the island. Whale shark presence at Darwin Island was negatively correlated with Sea Surface Temperature (SST), with highest abundance corresponding to a cool season between July and December over six years of monitoring. From 2011 to 2013 we photo-identified 82 whale sharks ranging from 4 to 13.1 m Total Length (TL). Size distribution was bimodal, with a great majority (91.5%) of adult female individuals averaging 11.35 m±0.12 m (TL±SE), all but one showing signs of a potential pregnancy. Population dynamics models for apparently pregnant sharks estimated the presence of 3.76±0.90 (mean ± SE) sharks in the study area per day with an individual residence time of 2.09±0.51 (mean ± SE) days. Movement patterns analysis of four apparently pregnant individuals tracked with acoustic tags at Darwin Island revealed an intense use of Darwin''s Arch, where no feeding or specific behavior has been recorded, together with periodic excursions around the island''s vicinity. Sharks showed a preference for intermediate depths (20–30 m) with occasional dives mostly to mid-water, remaining the majority of their time at water temperatures between 24–25°C. All of our results point to Darwin Island as an important stopover in a migration, possibly with reproductive purposes, rather than an aggregation site. Current studies carried out in this area to investigate regional scale movement patterns may provide essential information about possible pupping grounds for this enigmatic species.     

Landings of whale sharks Rhincodon typus Smith, 1828 in Indian waters since protection in 2001 through the Indian Wildlife (Protection) Act, 1972

Since 28^th May 2001, Whale shark Rhincodon typus Smith, 1828 have received the highest protected status for an animal in India through the Indian Wildlife (Protection) Act, 1972 Schedule-1. However, landings have still been recorded off the Indian coast since 2001, mostly as incidental bycatch in commercial fishing operations, and other sightings have also been reported. In the 1990’s, a targeted whale shark fishery existed off the Gujarat coast following increased demand for the flesh in some other Asian countries. Since the ban, landings of whale sharks have decreased substantially with only 79 recorded between 2001 and 2011. Landings were recorded in each year and in each month of the year with the highest landings in January and February. Between 2001 and 2011, the smallest specimen reported from Indian waters was a 94 cm TL individual and the largest was a 13.7 m TL individual, with most individuals recorded in the 4–6 m TL size class. Small juveniles of less than 3 m TL are rarely recorded in the literature and appear to be rarely observed globally. Between 2006 and 2011, seven juveniles of less than 3 m TL were recorded from two landing sites. Despite the continued landing of whale sharks along the Indian coasts since 2001, the protection of this species appears to have substantially reduced the catches with only incidental landings and strandings now evident. The protection status of whale sharks in India is generally well understood by fishers, but still there is need for further education regarding the current national legislation and vulnerability of the species.     

Horizontal Movements,Migration Patterns,and Population Structure of Whale Sharks in the Gulf of Mexico and Northwestern Caribbean Sea

Whale sharks, Rhincodon typus, aggregate by the hundreds in a summer feeding area off the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula, Mexico, where the Gulf of Mexico meets the Caribbean Sea. The aggregation remains in the nutrient-rich waters off Isla Holbox, Isla Contoy and Isla Mujeres, Quintana Roo for several months in the summer and then dissipates between August and October. Little has been known about where these sharks come from or migrate to after they disperse. From 2003–2012, we used conventional visual tags, photo-identification, and satellite tags to characterize the basic population structure and large-scale horizontal movements of whale sharks that come to this feeding area off Mexico. The aggregation comprised sharks ranging 2.5–10.0 m in total length and included juveniles, subadults, and adults of both sexes, with a male-biased sex ratio (72%). Individual sharks remained in the area for an estimated mean duration of 24–33 days with maximum residency up to about 6 months as determined by photo-identification. After leaving the feeding area the sharks showed horizontal movements in multiple directions throughout the Gulf of Mexico basin, the northwestern Caribbean Sea, and the Straits of Florida. Returns of individual sharks to the Quintana Roo feeding area in subsequent years were common, with some animals returning for six consecutive years. One female shark with an estimated total length of 7.5 m moved at least 7,213 km in 150 days, traveling through the northern Caribbean Sea and across the equator to the South Atlantic Ocean where her satellite tag popped up near the Mid-Atlantic Ridge. We hypothesize this journey to the open waters of the Mid-Atlantic was for reproductive purposes but alternative explanations are considered. The broad movements of whale sharks across multiple political boundaries corroborates genetics data supporting gene flow between geographically distinct areas and underscores the need for management and conservation strategies for this species on a global scale.     

A missing piece in the Arctic food web puzzle? Stomach contents of Greenland sharks sampled in Svalbard, Norway

Harbour seals in Svalbard have short longevity, despite being protected from human hunting and having limited terrestrial predation at their haulout sites, low contaminant burdens and no fishery by-catch issues. This led us to explore the diet of Greenland sharks (Somniosus microcephalus) in this region as a potential seal predator. We examined gastrointestinal tracts (GITs) from 45 Greenland sharks in this study. These sharks ranged from 229 to 381?cm in fork length and 136–700?kg in body mass; all were sexually immature. Seal and whale tissues were found in 36.4 and 18.2%, respectively, of the GITs that had contents (n?=?33). Based on genetic analyses, the dominant seal prey species was the ringed seal (Pusa hispida); bearded seal (Erignathus barbatus) and hooded seal (Cystophora cristata) tissues were each found in a single shark. The sharks had eaten ringed seal pups and adults based on the presence of lanugo-covered prey (pups) and age determinations based on growth rings on claws (≤1?year and adults). All of the whale tissue was from minke whale (Balenoptera acutorostrata) offal, from animals that had been harvested in the whale fishery near Svalbard. Fish dominated the sharks’ diet, with Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua), Atlantic wolffish (Anarhichas lupus) and haddock (Melanogrammus aeglefinus) being the most important fish species. Circumstantial evidence suggests that these sharks actively prey on seals and fishes, in addition to eating carrion such as the whale tissue. Our study suggests that Greenland sharks may play a significant predatory role in Arctic food webs.     

Telemetry and Satellite Tracking of Whale Sharks, Rhincodon Typus, in the Sea of Cortez, Mexico, and the North Pacific Ocean

We used satellite-linked radio telemetry to document the geographic and vertical movements and thermal habitats of whale sharks in the Sea of Cortez and as they migrated into the north Pacific Ocean. Of 17 sharks tagged between 1994 and 1996, six dispersed widely in the Sea of Cortez during 12–39 days of tracking. Four others left the Sea of Cortez and ranged extensively in the north Pacific Ocean. Indeed, one whale shark migrated to the western north Pacific Ocean, covering over 13000km in 37 months of tracking. The sharks generally occupied areas where sea surface water temperatures were between 28 and 32°C, though several ranged to depths of 240m or deeper where water temperature reached 10°C or colder. Whale sharks may segregate by size and sex, and their movement patterns appear to be related to oceanographic features, such as sea mounts and boundary currents, where primary productivity may be enhanced. These results have important implications for the global conservation of the world's largest yet least known fish. We think that satellite telemetry is a exceptionally promising tool for learning more about the ecology of whale sharks, especially when combined with conventional methods of telemetry and molecular biology.authorship arranged alphabetically     

Genetic structure of populations of whale sharks among ocean basins and evidence for their historic rise and recent decline

This study presents genetic evidence that whale sharks, Rhincodon typus, are comprised of at least two populations that rarely mix and is the first to document a population expansion. Relatively high genetic structure is found when comparing sharks from the Gulf of Mexico with sharks from the Indo‐Pacific. If mixing occurs between the Indian and Atlantic Oceans, it is not sufficient to counter genetic drift. This suggests whale sharks are not all part of a single global metapopulation. The significant population expansion we found was indicated by both microsatellite and mitochondrial DNA. The expansion may have happened during the Holocene, when tropical species could expand their range due to sea‐level rise, eliminating dispersal barriers and increasing plankton productivity. However, the historic trend of population increase may have reversed recently. Declines in genetic diversity are found for 6 consecutive years at Ningaloo Reef in Australia. The declines in genetic diversity being seen now in Australia may be due to commercial‐scale harvesting of whale sharks and collision with boats in past decades in other countries in the Indo‐Pacific. The study findings have implications for models of population connectivity for whale sharks and advocate for continued focus on effective protection of the world's largest fish at multiple spatial scales.     

Inferring population trends for the world's largest fish from mark-recapture estimates of survival

1. Precise estimates of demographic rates are key components of population models used to predict the effects of stochastic environmental processes, harvest scenarios and extinction probability. 2. We used a 12-year photographic identification library of whale sharks from Ningaloo Reef, Western Australia to construct Cormack-Jolly-Seber (CJS) model estimates of survival within a capture-mark-recapture (CMR) framework. Estimated survival rates, population structure and assumptions regarding age at maturity, longevity and reproduction frequency were combined in a series of age-classified Leslie matrices to infer the potential trajectory of the population. 3. Using data from 111 individuals, there was evidence for time variation in apparent survival (phi) and recapture probability (p). The null model gave a phi of 0.825 (95% CI: 0.727-0.893) and p = 0.184 (95% CI: 0.121-0.271). The model-averaged annual phi ranged from 0.737 to 0.890. There was little evidence for a sex effect on survival. 4. Using standardized total length as a covariate in the CMR models indicated a size bias in phi. Ignoring the effects of time, a 5-m shark has a phi = 0.59 and a 9 m shark has phi = 0.81. 5. Of the 16 model combinations considered, 10 (63%) indicated a decreasing population (lambda < 1). For models based on age at first reproduction (alpha) of 13 years, the mean age of reproducing females at the stable age distribution (A) ranged from 15 to 23 years, which increased to 29-37 years when alpha was assumed to be 25. 6. All model scenarios had higher total elasticities for non-reproductive female survival [E(s(nr))] compared to those for reproductive female survival [E(s(r))]. 7. Assuming relatively slow, but biologically realistic, vital rates (alpha = 25 and biennial reproduction) and size-biased survival probabilities, our results suggest that the Ningaloo Reef population of whale sharks is declining, although more reproductive data are clearly needed to confirm this conclusion. Combining relatively precise survival estimates from CMR studies with realistic assumptions of other vital rates provides a useful heuristic framework for determining the vulnerability of large oceanic predators for which few direct data exist.