Seasonality of aquatic invertebrates in low-latitude and Southern Hemisphere inland waters

The seasonality of freshwater aquatic invertebrates in Southern Hemisphere and low-latitude inland waters in Africa, Australasia and South America is reviewed. Fauna from the tropics to temperate latitudes manifests some seasonality, the amplitude of which tends to increase, albeit inconsistently, with latitude. The wide diversity of habitats considered, and deficiencies in the data preclude generalizations about patterns and magnitude of seasonal response, which principally reflect system-specific events and interactions. For example, zooplankton declined after mixing events in some stratified systems, but increased in others, food availability being implicated. Zooplankton was most abundant in summer in some stratifying systems, and in winter in others, while in most non-stratifying systems, it was most abundant around the winter solstice, and in several, declined during the rainy season.Seasonality of the zoobenthos was frequently linked to hydrological events such as fluctuations in water level which potentially influence food and habitat availability. Seasonal anaerobiosis in shallow sheltered waters and deeper hypolimnia imposes spatio-temporal restrictions on the benthic fauna. Low oxygen solubility, rapid oxygen depletion and decomposition of organic food matter at the elevated temperatures are probably significant influences. Life histories of Southern Hemisphere stream fauna appear seasonally flexible and opportunistic by contrast with the apparently synchronous cycles exhibited by north temperate representatives. Such flexibility may be selective both in respect of climatic unpredictability and equability.The influences of predation and resource availability upon seasonal dynamics remain to be explored more fully, particularly in aquatic ecosystems in warm, arid regions which lack the climatic predictability of the cooler, humid, temperate zones.     

Successional pattern of phytoplankton (>55 microm) in Lekki lagoon, Nigeria

Lagoons are dominant features along large stretches of the West Africa coast. These freshwater environments are very valuable areas where phytoplankton constitute the basis of aquatic food webs. In order to know the effects of environmental variables on phytoplankton, a study of the successional pattern of phytoplankton in Lekki lagoon was carried out monthly for two years (June 2003-May 2005). Phytoplankton samples were collected from 12 stations using a plankton net of 55 microm mesh, and samples preserved in 4% unbuffered formalin. Besides, surface water samples were taken for physico-chemical analysis. For each year, the seasonal distribution and succession of dominant phytoplankton followed different patterns. Phytoplankton abundance was higher during the dry season (November-April) for the two annual cycles. The diatoms (Aulacoseira granulata and A. granulata var angustissima) and blue green algaes, Microcystis aeruginosa, Merismopedia tennuissima and Trichodesmium lacustre showed this trend by being the abundant species in some of these months. For the rainy season, the green alga Mougeotia sp. dominated. The replacement of one form by another throughout seasonal cycles was probably controlled by the changes in environmental variables such as rainfall, nitrate-nitrogen and phosphate-phosphorus.     

Thermal characteristics of running waters

This chapter reviews available data on thermal conditions prevailing in lotic ecosystems of the Southern Hemisphere. The primary factors (hydrology, climate, insolation) that interact to determine the thermal régime are examined in the context of southern waters. Maximum temperatures are plotted against annual ranges for equatorial (0–10° latitude), tropical (10–231/2° latitude), and temperate sites. In regions with seasonal climates, running waters exhibit diel and annual thermal periodicity patterns, the phasing of which varies between and within lotic systems. The universality of Illies' river zonation system is analyzed in the context of thermal conditions in Southern Hemisphere running waters.From the relatively limited data base, it appears that Southern Hemisphere running waters exhibit some distinctive features when viewedin toto, compared with Europe and North America where thermal characteristics of lotic habitats have been reasonably well documented. Such differences relate to the generally warm and dry conditions, and to the highly variable and unpredictable climatic régimes characterizing large areas of the Southern Hemisphere. It is concluded that differences in thermal conditions of running waters between hemispheres are a matter of degree rather than of kind, and partly reflect a small woodland stream bias inherent in Northern Hemisphere stream ecology.     

Analysis of the seasonal dynamics of river phytoplankton based on succession rate indices for key event identification

The seasonal dynamics of river phytoplankton was analyzed using succession rate indices based on data collected from year-round observations of two small plain rivers in the Upper Ob Basin (Western Siberia). The study revealed a generally clear seasonal pattern of structural changes in the phytoplankton of the lower reaches of the studied rivers. The dynamics of succession rate indices reflects the key events in the life of phytoplankton in the Bolshaya Losikha and Barnaulka Rivers, showing mainly changes in the dominant species during the main phases of the hydrological cycle. The most significant changes in phytoplankton structure tend to occur in the period between the spring flood decline and the beginning of summer–autumn low water. These changes coincide with the most drastic changes in both environmental conditions and phytoplankton successional stages. Use of succession rate indices to analyze the seasonal dynamics of phytoplankton allowed us to distinguish between periods of abrupt change and periods of comparatively low-intensity changes in plankton composition in small lowland temperate rivers.

     

Successional dynamics in the seasonally forced diamond food web

Plankton seasonal succession is a classic example of nonequilibrium community dynamics. Despite the fact that it has been well studied empirically, it lacks a general quantitative theory. Here we investigate a food web model that includes a resource, two phytoplankton, and a shared grazer-the diamond food web-in a seasonal environment. The model produces a number of successional trajectories that have been widely discussed in the context of the verbal Plankton Ecology Group model of succession, such as a spring bloom of a good competitor followed by a grazer-induced clear-water phase, setting the stage for the late-season dominance of a grazer-resistant species. It also predicts a novel, counterintuitive trajectory where the grazer-resistant species has both early- and late-season blooms. The model often generates regular annual cycles but sometimes produces multiyear cycles or chaos, even with identical forcing each year. Parameterizing the model, we show how the successional trajectory depends on nutrient supply and the length of the growing season, two key parameters that vary among water bodies. This model extends nonequilibrium theory to food webs and is a first step toward a quantitative theory of plankton seasonal succession.     

A Compositional and Structural Analysis of Phytoplankton in Lake Khurpatal, (U.P.), India

The phytoplankton community in Lake Khurpatal (Kumaun Himalya), India, was analyzed in relation to physico-chemical variables. Phytoplankton biomass ranged from 2.7 to 20.0 g m⁻³ in the euphotic zone of the lake. Dinoflagellates monopolized the algal community with a mean annual contribution of 94.5 % to the total phytoplankton biomass. The community coefficient used to quantify the seasonal changes in algal population reflected the fact that successional episodes were not very significant, the percentage similarity among the consecutive algal samples ranging from 47.8 to 89.9 %. The phytoplankton community was characterized by low species richness, low equitability and species diversity. Various ecological characteristics of the community are discussed and the phytoplankton biomass is also compared with that of some tropical and temperate lakes.     

Interannual variability in phytoplankton biomass and species composition in a subtropical reservoir

• 1 The interannual variability of the dominant phytoplankton populations is described in a subtropical reservoir in Queensland using weekly data for a 16-year period between 1978 and 1994. North Pine Dam, Brisbane, is in an area characterized by strong interannual variability in rainfall. This variability is linked to El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events. Between 1978 and 1994 periods of drought (during strong ENSO events) were interspersed by periods of flooding rains. Rainfall on the catchment and temperature and oxygen within the dam showed strong 40-day periodicities which also varied in strength interannually in response to ENSO events. Similar patterns of fluctuations in the 40-day periodicity have been found elsewhere in SE Australia. Seasonal cycles of stratification in the dam were a function of both hydrographic and hydrological events. Intermittent rain storms caused partial turnovers and large outflows. As much as 90% of the dam volume was exchanged in a single flood event.
• 2 The dominant phytoplankton species were similar to those frequently found in tropical and subtropical lakes and reservoirs. The phytoplankton community switched between cyanobacterial blooms (Cylindrospermopsis, Microcystis) during drought and falling water levels and diatom blooms (Aulacoseira) in response to inflows and seasonal turnovers. There appeared to be a subtle interaction between inflows, water column stability, the periodic overturns and the occurrence of the dominant species. All the dominant species showed long periods (2–4 years) of exponential increase or decrease superimposed on top of the seasonal fluctuations in abundance. These patterns of abundance led to marked interannual variability in the phytoplankton biomass. Climate variability had a major impact on the seasonal and interannual changes of the dominant phytoplankton species.
• 3 Phytoplankton biomass tended to be depressed for about 3 months after individual storm events but the data also displayed long-term lag effects (2–4 years) which destroyed any significant correlation between water residence time and biomass. Summer maxima of biomass dominated by cyanobacteria disappeared between 1985 and 1990 and were replaced by smaller winter peaks. The data presented here are not capable of unequivocally identifying the precise reason for these longer-term effects. Because of the implications for water quality management in subtropical and tropical reservoirs they warrant further study.

     

How much have we learned about seasonality in tropical insect abundance since Wolda (1988)?

Seasonal patterns in climatic conditions affect the life cycles and temporal patterns in the abundance of most temperate insect species. In tropical regions where there is no winter season, the situation may be different. For a better understanding of the evolution of seasonal life cycles, and the dynamics affecting temporal patterns in abundance of tropical insect populations and assemblages, it is important to study the life cycles of tropical insects and the presence or absence of seasonality in relation to climatic conditions. By reviewing studies on temporal patterns of abundance, this article examines the patterns of seasonality in adult tropical forest insects and discusses the variation in such patterns in various forest types. Seasonal and aseasonal patterns were found to be common in tropical dry and wet regions, respectively. In wet regions, which lack a distinctive dry season, there exists a wide variety of temporal patterns in addition to aseasonal patterns: distinctively seasonal and supra‐annual fluctuations in some insect species. Some of the problems of hidden ecological mechanisms underlying seasonal patterns in abundance are discussed, and the definition of seasonality in temporal patterns of insect abundance at a particular stage in the life cycle is considered. Methodological problems are also discussed.     

Seasonal succession of cladocerans and phytoplankton and their interactions in a shallow eutrophic lake (Lake Vela,Portugal)

Lake Vela is a polymictic shallow lake exhibiting some characteristics typical of an advanced trophic state, namely, the permanently turbid water, the reduction in biodiversity, and the recurrent occurrence of Cyanobacteria blooms, which occasionally lead to large fish kills. This study was carried out in order to understand the seasonal variation of Lake Vela’s phytoplankton and cladoceran communities and their interactions under advanced eutrophic conditions. When comparing our results with general models of plankton succession observed in other temperate and tropical lakes we found some coherence between several seasonal events. Our results suggest that phytoplankton is mainly regulated by nutrients (“bottom-up” effect). However, the warm mediterranean temperatures had an important role in the phytoplankton succession, being responsible for the rapid and intense Cyanobacteria development in spring and summer. Our work also demonstrated that phytoplankton is one of the main factors responsible for the seasonal structure of the community of cladocerans, which are well related to changes in algae diversity and abundance, being the Cyanobacteria having major impact. Moreover, the occurrence of a massive Cyanobacteria bloom during the study, which induced anoxia and consequent fish kill, enhanced the structuring role that fish have on the cladoceran seasonal succession and the effects of this episode in the normal seasonal succession of plankton.     

Global patterns of insect herbivory in gap and understorey environments,and their implications for woody plant carbon storage

Insect herbivory is thought to favour carbon allocation to storage in juveniles of shade‐tolerant trees. This argument assumes that insect herbivory in the understorey is sufficiently intense as to select for storage; however, understoreys might be less attractive to insect herbivores than canopy gaps, because of low resource availability and – at temperate latitudes – low temperatures. Although empirical studies show that shade‐tolerant species in tropical forests do allocate more photosynthate to storage than their light‐demanding associates, the same pattern has not been consistently observed in temperate forests. Does this reflect a latitudinal trend in the relative activity of insect herbivory in gap versus understorey environments? To date there has been no global review of the effect of light environment on insect herbivory in forests. We postulated that if temperature is the primary factor limiting insect herbivory, the effect of gaps on rates of insect herbivory should be more evident in temperate than in tropical forests; due to low growing season temperatures in the oceanic temperate forests of the Southern Hemisphere, the effect of gaps on insect herbivory rates should in turn be stronger there than in the more continental temperate climates of the Northern Hemisphere. We examined global patterns of insect herbivory in gaps versus understories through meta‐analysis of 87 conspecific comparisons of leaf damage in contrasting light environments. Overall, insect herbivory in gaps was significantly higher than in the understorey; insect herbivory was 50% higher in gaps than in understoreys of tropical forests but did not differ significantly between gaps and understories in temperate forests of either hemisphere. Results are consistent with the idea that low resource availability – and not temperature – limits insect herbivore activity in forest understoreys, especially in the tropics, and suggest the selective influence of insect herbivory on late‐successional tree species may have been over‐estimated.     

Logging impacts on avian species richness and composition differ across latitudes and foraging and breeding habitat preferences

Understanding the causes underlying changes in species diversity is a fundamental pursuit of ecology. Animal species richness and composition often change with decreased forest structural complexity associated with logging. Yet differences in latitude and forest type may strongly influence how species diversity responds to logging. We performed a meta‐analysis of logging effects on local species richness and composition of birds across the world and assessed responses by different guilds (nesting strata, foraging strata, diet, and body size). This approach allowed identification of species attributes that might underlie responses to this anthropogenic disturbance. We only examined studies that allowed forests to regrow naturally following logging, and accounted for logging intensity, spatial extent, successional regrowth after logging, and the change in species composition expected due to random assembly from regional species pools. Selective logging in the tropics and clearcut logging in temperate latitudes caused loss of species from nearly all forest strata (ground to canopy), leading to substantial declines in species richness (up to 27% of species). Few species were lost or gained following any intensity of logging in lower‐latitude temperate forests, but the relative abundances of these species changed substantially. Selective logging at higher‐temperate latitudes generally replaced late‐successional specialists with early‐successional specialists, leading to no net changes in species richness but large changes in species composition. Removing less basal area during logging mitigated the loss of avian species from all forests and, in some cases, increased diversity in temperate forests. This meta‐analysis provides insights into the important role of habitat specialization in determining differential responses of animal communities to logging across tropical and temperate latitudes.     

Species richness in tropical fresh waters of Australia

General ecological expectations about the relationship between latitude and species richness are that at low latitudes (the tropics) species richness is greater than at higher latitudes (temperate and polar regions). Recent work suggests that this may not be the case for several habitat types and biological groups in Australia. Results are conflicting: on present evidence (admittedly sparse) it appears that in Australian tropical fresh waters species richness is generally depressed in zooplankton and littoral microfaunal communities, but not in macroinvertebrate communities in typical streams and in fish communities (and perhaps also in amphibian and reptile communities). The situation is indeterminate for tropical phytoplankton and macrophyte communities.     

Using molt cycles to categorize the age of tropical birds: an integrative new system

ABSTRACT Accurately differentiating age classes is essential for the long‐term monitoring of resident New World tropical bird species. Molt and plumage criteria have long been used to accurately age temperate birds, but application of temperate age‐classification models to the Neotropics has been hindered because annual life‐cycle events of tropical birds do not always correspond with temperate age‐classification nomenclature. However, recent studies have shown that similar molt and plumage criteria can be used to categorize tropical birds into age classes. We propose a categorical age‐classification system for tropical birds based on identification of molt cycles and their inserted plumages. This approach allows determination of the age ranges (in months) of birds throughout plumage succession. Although our proposed cycle‐based system is an improvement over temperate calendar‐based models, we believe that combining both systems provides the most accurate means of categorizing age and preserving age‐related data. Our proposed cycle‐based age‐classification system can be used for all birds, including temperate species, and provides a framework for investigating molt and population dynamics that could ultimately influence management decisions.     

Effects of ENSO and Temporal Rainfall Variation on the Dynamics of Successional Communities in Old-Field Succession of a Tropical Dry Forest

The effects of temporal variation of rainfall on secondary succession of tropical dry ecosystems are poorly understood. We studied effects of inter-seasonal and inter-year rainfall variation on the dynamics of regenerative successional communities of a tropical dry forest in Mexico. We emphasized the effects caused by the severe El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) occurred in 2005. We established permanent plots in sites representing a chronosequence of Pasture (abandoned pastures, 0–1 years fallow age), Early (3–5), Intermediate (8–12), and Old-Growth Forest categories (n = 3 per category). In total, 8210 shrubs and trees 10 to 100-cm height were identified, measured, and monitored over four years. Rates of plant recruitment, growth and mortality, and gain and loss of species were quantified per season (dry vs. rainy), year, and successional category, considering whole communities and separating seedlings from sprouts and shrubs from trees. Community rates changed with rainfall variation without almost any effect of successional stage. Mortality and species loss rates peaked during the ENSO year and the following year; however, after two rainy years mortality peaked in the rainy season. Such changes could result from the severe drought in the ENSO year, and of the outbreak of biotic agents during the following rainy years. Growth, recruitment and species gain rates were higher in the rainy season but they were significantly reduced after the ENSO year. Seedlings exhibited higher recruitment and mortality rate than sprouts, and shrubs showed higher recruitment than trees. ENSO strongly impacted both the dynamics and trajectory of succession, creating transient fluctuations in the abundance and species richness of the communities. Overall, there was a net decline in plant and species density in most successional stages along the years. Therefore, strong drought events have critical consequences for regeneration dynamics, delaying the successional process and modifying the resilience of these systems.     

Phytoplankton Succession in Recurrently Fluctuating Environments

Coastal marine systems are affected by seasonal variations in biogeochemical and physical processes, sometimes leading to alternating periods of reproductive growth limitation within an annual cycle. Transitions between these periods can be sudden or gradual. Human activities, such as reservoir construction and interbasin water transfers, influence these processes and can affect the type of transition between resource loading conditions. How such human activities might influence phytoplankton succession is largely unknown. Here, we employ a multispecies, multi-nutrient model to explore how nutrient loading switching mode might affect phytoplankton succession. The model is based on the Monod-relationship, predicting an instantaneous reproductive growth rate from ambient inorganic nutrient concentrations whereas the limiting nutrient at any given time was determined by Liebig’s Law of the Minimum. When these relationships are combined with population loss factors, such as hydraulic displacement of cells associated with inflows, a characterization of a species’ niche can be achieved through application of the R* conceptual model, thus enabling an ecological interpretation of modeling results. We found that the mode of reversal in resource supply concentrations had a profound effect. When resource supply reversals were sudden, as expected in systems influenced by pulsed inflows or wind-driven mixing events, phytoplankton were characterized by alternating succession dynamics, a phenomenon documented in inland water bodies of temperate latitudes. When resource supply reversals were gradual, as expected in systems influenced by seasonally developing wet and dry seasons, or annually occurring periods of upwelling, phytoplankton dynamics were characterized by mirror-image succession patterns. This phenomenon has not been reported previously in plankton systems but has been observed in some terrestrial plant systems. These findings suggest that a transition from alternating to “mirror-image” succession patterns might arise with continued coastal zone development, with crucial implications for ecosystems dependent on time-sensitive processes, e.g., spawning events and migration patterns.     

Phytoplankton and its dynamics in two tropical lakes: a tropical and temperate zone comparison

Temporal patterns of phytoplankton biomass and community structure are described for two Kenyan lakes and subsequently compared with patterns reported in other tropical and temperate lakes. Lake Naivasha had a lower and more seasonally variable (10×) biomass, with a seasonal shift between diatoms and blue-greens, while the L. Oloidien biomass was less variable (3.7×) and dominated by blue-greens. Biomass and chlorophyll a were strongly correlated and in turn were coupled to the level of total phosphorus. A total of 143 and 94 taxa were described for L. Naivasha and L. Oloidien, respectively.The comparative analysis showed: a) a paucity of exclusively tropical species; b) that more than 30 percent of the species in two highly saline Kenyan lakes were also present in the two freshwater lakes; c) no evidence for a postulated decline of phytoplankton species abundance with latitude from the temperate zone to the tropics; d) that the low fraction of chrysophyte biomass in tropical lakes is a function of trophy rather than of latitude; e) that the fraction of chlorophyte biomass in tropical lakes is generally higher than in temperate lakes; f) that the proportion of nannoplankton in the two Kenyan freshwater lakes is not different from that in temperate lakes of the same trophy; g) that seasonal or annual biomass oscillations in the tropics are not systematically lower than in the temperate zone; h) evidence for large inter-year difference in the max.:min. biomass ratio in the only tropical lake (L. Naivasha) for which such data are available; i) that an average biomass ratio appears predictable for tropical lakes from the proportion of the sediment surface in contact with epilimnetic water. Overall, no evidence was found that the freshwater tropical phytoplankton composition or dynamics differ in any fundamental fashion from that observed in the temperate lakes during the summer.Contribution number 147 of the Limnology Research Centre, McGill University.     

Seasonal fluctuations of resource abundance and avian feeding guilds across forest–farmland boundaries in tropical Africa

Seasonal fluctuations in climatic factors are expected to increase in future decades. However, little is known about the response of tropical species communities to seasonal fluctuations in climate and resource availability, particularly across different habitat types. We examined the relationship between spatio‐temporal fluctuations in the abundance of fruits and invertebrates and two avian feeding guilds, i.e. frugivores and insectivores, in forest and farmland habitats in western Kenya. Fruits and invertebrates fluctuated substantially throughout the year, but seasonal fluctuations were asynchronous between the two habitat types. Species richness and total abundance of frugivores and insectivores also fluctuated strongly and were closely related to the abundance of their respective resources. Frugivore species richness fluctuated anti‐cyclical in forest and farmland habitats, suggesting that several frugivorous species tracked fruit resources across habitat boundaries. In contrast, insectivorous bird richness fluctuated synchronously in the two habitat types, suggesting a lack of local‐scale movements across habitat boundaries. We conclude that bird communities strongly respond to seasonal fluctuations in resource availability, but responses differ between feeding guilds. While frugivores seem to respond flexibly to seasonal fluctuations, for instance by tracking fruit resources across habitat boundaries, insectivorous birds appear to be more susceptible to the expected increase in seasonal fluctuations in resource availability.     

Latitudinal and depth gradients in marine predation pressure

Aim There is a general paradigm that marine predation pressure increases towards the tropics and decreases with depth. However, data demonstrating global trends are generally lacking. Rhynchonelliform brachiopods inhabit all the oceans and often survive shell‐crushing predator attacks. We investigate shell repair in brachiopods across a range of Southern Hemisphere and tropical Northern Hemisphere latitudes and depths. Location The Southern Hemisphere and tropical Northern Hemisphere. Methods We analysed the frequency of shell repair in 112 bulk samples, over 70% of which showed traces of shell damage and repair. Results The pattern of shell repair frequency (RF) was more complicated than the anticipated increase with decreasing latitude, with low levels at both polar and tropical sites but high levels at temperate latitudes. This pattern is only evident, however, in shallow water assemblages; and there is no latitudinal trend in water depths greater than 200 m, where shell RF is systematically low. There was a significant logarithmic relationship between RF and depth. Low polar repair rates reflect reduced predation pressure, directly supporting the global paradigm. Low rates in the tropics appears counter to the paradigm. However, tropical brachiopods are generally very small (micromorphic) in shallow water and below the minimum size at which damage is recorded anywhere. Main conclusions Predation pressure decreased logarithmically with depth. At shallow depths (< 200 m) RF showed its highest levels in the mid temperate latitudes with decreasing frequency towards both the tropics and the poles. Low levels of shell repair at high latitudes are likely to be due to a lack of crushing predators, but in the tropics it is suggested that the low frequency is a result of the small size of tropical brachiopods. We hypothesize that micromorphy in this region may be an outcome of high predation pressure.     

The annual cycles of phytoplankton biomass

Terrestrial plants are powerful climate sentinels because their annual cycles of growth, reproduction and senescence are finely tuned to the annual climate cycle having a period of one year. Consistency in the seasonal phasing of terrestrial plant activity provides a relatively low-noise background from which phenological shifts can be detected and attributed to climate change. Here, we ask whether phytoplankton biomass also fluctuates over a consistent annual cycle in lake, estuarine–coastal and ocean ecosystems and whether there is a characteristic phenology of phytoplankton as a consistent phase and amplitude of variability. We compiled 125 time series of phytoplankton biomass (chlorophyll a concentration) from temperate and subtropical zones and used wavelet analysis to extract their dominant periods of variability and the recurrence strength at those periods. Fewer than half (48%) of the series had a dominant 12-month period of variability, commonly expressed as the canonical spring-bloom pattern. About 20 per cent had a dominant six-month period of variability, commonly expressed as the spring and autumn or winter and summer blooms of temperate lakes and oceans. These annual patterns varied in recurrence strength across sites, and did not persist over the full series duration at some sites. About a third of the series had no component of variability at either the six- or 12-month period, reflecting a series of irregular pulses of biomass. These findings show that there is high variability of annual phytoplankton cycles across ecosystems, and that climate-driven annual cycles can be obscured by other drivers of population variability, including human disturbance, aperiodic weather events and strong trophic coupling between phytoplankton and their consumers. Regulation of phytoplankton biomass by multiple processes operating at multiple time scales adds complexity to the challenge of detecting climate-driven trends in aquatic ecosystems where the noise to signal ratio is high.