STRONG SELECTION BARRIERS EXPLAIN MICROGEOGRAPHIC ADAPTATION IN WILD SALAMANDER POPULATIONS

Microgeographic adaptation occurs when populations evolve divergent fitness advantages across the spatial scales at which focal organisms regularly disperse. Although an increasing number of studies find evidence for microgeographic adaptation, the underlying causes often remain unknown. Adaptive divergence requires some combination of limited gene flow and strong divergent natural selection among populations. In this study, we estimated the relative influence of selection, gene flow, and the spatial arrangement of populations in shaping patterns of adaptive divergence in natural populations of the spotted salamander (Ambystoma maculatum). Within the study region, A. maculatum co‐occur with the predatory marbled salamander (Ambystoma opacum) in some ponds, and past studies have established a link between predation risk and adaptive trait variation in A. maculatum. Using 14 microsatellite loci, we found a significant pattern of genetic divergence among A. maculatum populations corresponding to levels of A. opacum predation risk. Additionally, A. maculatum foraging rate was strongly associated with predation risk, genetic divergence, and the spatial relationship of ponds on the landscape. Our results indicate the sorting of adaptive genotypes by selection regime and strongly suggest that substantial selective barriers operate against gene flow. This outcome suggests that microgeographic adaptation in A. maculatum is possible because strong antagonistic selection quickly eliminates maladapted phenotypes despite ongoing and substantial immigration. Increasing evidence for microgeographic adaptation suggests a strong role for selective barriers in counteracting the homogenizing influence of gene flow.     

Gene flow in Dubautia arborea and D. ciliolata: the roles of ecology and isolation by distance in maintaining species boundaries despite ongoing hybridization

The relative roles of gene flow and natural selection in maintaining species differentiation have been a subject of debate for some time. The traditional view is that gene flow constrains adaptive divergence and maintains species cohesiveness. Alternatively, ecological speciation posits that the reverse is true: that adaptive ecological differentiation constrains gene flow. In this study, we examine gene flow and population differentiation among populations of two species of the Hawaiian silversword alliance, Dubautia arborea and D. ciliolata. We compare divergence in putatively neutral microsatellite markers with divergence in leaf morphometric traits, which may be selectively important or physiologically linked to selectively important traits. Gene flow between populations was found to be significant in only one of the two species, D. arborea. Leaf morphometric differentiation between species was significant, though not among populations within species. No evidence of effective genetic introgression was observed between apparently 'pure' populations of these species. Gene flow as measured by microsatellites was not correlated with geographic distance between populations, but was correlated with the linear placement of the widest part of the leaf. Because these two species are interfertile, as demonstrated by the presence of active hybrid zone, the lack of genetic introgression and the maintenance of species boundaries may be associated with natural selection on differential habitat.     

MIGRATION-SELECTION BALANCE AND LOCAL ADAPTATION OF MITOCHONDRIAL HAPLOTYPES IN RUFOUS-COLLARED SPARROWS (ZONOTRICHIA CAPENSIS) ALONG AN ELEVATIONAL GRADIENT

Variable selection pressures across heterogeneous landscapes can lead to local adaptation of populations. The extent of local adaptation depends on the interplay between natural selection and gene flow, but the nature of this relationship is complex. Gene flow can constrain local adaptation by eroding differentiation driven by natural selection, or local adaptation can itself constrain gene flow through selection against maladapted immigrants. Here we test for evidence that natural selection constrains gene flow among populations of a widespread passerine bird ( Zonotrichia capensis ) that are distributed along an elevational gradient in the Peruvian Andes. Using multilocus sequences and microsatellites screened in 142 individuals collected along a series of replicate transects, we found that mitochondrial gene flow was significantly reduced along elevational transects relative to latitudinal control transects. Nuclear gene flow, however, was not similarly reduced. Clines in mitochondrial haplotype frequency were strongly associated with transitions in environmental variables along the elevational transects, but this association was not observed for the nuclear markers. These results suggest that natural selection constrains mitochondrial gene flow along elevational gradients and that the mitonuclear discrepancy may be due to local adaptation of mitochondrial haplotypes.     

Modifying effects of phenotypic plasticity on interactions among natural selection, adaptation and gene flow

Divergent natural selection, adaptive divergence and gene flow may interact in a number of ways. Recent studies have focused on the balance between selection and gene flow in natural populations, and empirical work has shown that gene flow can constrain adaptive divergence, and that divergent selection can constrain gene flow. A caveat is that phenotypic diversification may be under the direct influence of environmental factors (i.e. it may be due to phenotypic plasticity), in addition to partial genetic influence. In this case, phenotypic divergence may occur between populations despite high gene flow that imposes a constraint on genetic divergence. Plasticity may dampen the effects of natural selection by allowing individuals to rapidly adapt phenotypically to new conditions, thus slowing adaptive genetic divergence. On the other hand, plasticity may promote future adaptive divergence by allowing populations to persist in novel environments. Plasticity may promote gene flow between selective regimes by allowing dispersers to adapt to alternate conditions, or high gene flow may result in the selection for increased plasticity. Here I expand frameworks for understanding relationships among selection, adaptation and gene flow to include the effects of phenotypic plasticity in natural populations, and highlight its importance in evolutionary diversification.     

Strong gene flow and lack of stable population structure in the face of rapid adaptation to local temperature in a spring-spawning salmonid, the European grayling (Thymallus thymallus)

Gene flow has the potential to both constrain and facilitate adaptation to local environmental conditions. The early stages of population divergence can be unstable because of fluctuating levels of gene flow. Investigating temporal variation in gene flow during the initial stages of population divergence can therefore provide insights to the role of gene flow in adaptive evolution. Since the recent colonization of Lake Lesjaskogsvatnet in Norway by European grayling (Thymallus thymallus), local populations have been established in over 20 tributaries. Multiple founder events appear to have resulted in reduced neutral variation. Nevertheless, there is evidence for local adaptation in early life-history traits to different temperature regimes. In this study, microsatellite data from almost a decade of sampling were assessed to infer population structuring and its temporal stability. Several alternative analyses indicated that spatial variation explained 2-3 times more of the divergence in the system than temporal variation. Over all samples and years, there was a significant correlation between genetic and geographic distance. However, decomposed pairwise regression analysis revealed differing patterns of genetic structure among local populations and indicated that migration outweighs genetic drift in the majority of populations. In addition, isolation by distance was observable in only three of the six years, and signals of population bottlenecks were observed in the majority of samples. Combined, the results suggest that habitat-specific adaptation in this system has preceded the development of consistent population substructuring in the face of high levels of gene flow from divergent environments.     

Local adaptation does not lead to genome‐wide differentiation in lava flow lizards

Adaptation can occur with or without genome‐wide differentiation. If adaptive loci are linked to traits involved in reproductive isolation, genome‐wide divergence is likely, and speciation is possible. However, adaptation can also lead to phenotypic differentiation without genome‐wide divergence if levels of ongoing gene flow are high. Here, we use the replicated occurrence of melanism in lava flow lizards to assess the relationship between local adaptation and genome‐wide differentiation. We compare patterns of phenotypic and genomic divergence among lava flow and nonlava populations for three lizard species and three lava flows in the Chihuahuan Desert. We find that local phenotypic adaptation (melanism) is not typically accompanied by genome‐wide differentiation. Specifically, lava populations do not generally exhibit greater divergence from nonlava populations than expected by geography alone, regardless of whether the lava formation is 5,000 or 760,000 years old. We also infer that gene flow between lava and nonlava populations is ongoing in all lava populations surveyed. Recent work in the isolation by environment and ecological speciation literature suggests that environmentally driven genome‐wide differentiation is common in nature. However, local adaptation may often simply be local adaptation rather than an early stage of ecological speciation.     

Gene flow, effective population size and selection at major histocompatibility complex genes: brown trout in the Hardanger Fjord, Norway

Brown trout populations in the Hardanger Fjord, Norway, have declined drastically due to increased exposure to salmon lice from salmonid aquaculture. We studied contemporary samples from seven populations and historical samples (1972 and 1983) from the two largest populations, one of which has declined drastically whereas the other remains stable. We analysed 11 microsatellite loci, including one tightly linked to the UBA gene of the major histocompatibility class I complex (MHC) and another locus linked to the TAP2A gene, also associated with MHC. The results revealed asymmetric gene flow from the two largest populations to the other, smaller populations. This has important conservation implications, and we predict that possible future population recoveries will be mediated primarily by the remaining large population. Tests for selection suggested diversifying selection at UBA, whereas evidence was inconclusive for TAP2A. There was no evidence for temporally fluctuating selection. We assessed the distribution of adaptive divergence among populations. The results showed the most pronounced footprints of selection between the two largest populations subject to the least immigration. We suggest that asymmetric gene flow has an important influence on adaptive divergence and constrains local adaptive responses in the smaller populations. Even though UBA alleles may not affect salmon louse resistance, the results bear evidence of adaptive divergence among populations at immune system genes. This suggests that similar genetic differences could exist at salmon louse resistance loci, thus rendering it a realistic scenario that differential population declines could reflect differences in adaptive variation.     

Migration-induced phenotypic divergence: the migration-selection balance of correlated traits

Genetically correlated traits are known to respond to indirect selection pressures caused by directional selection on other traits. It is however unclear how local adaptation in populations diverging along some phenotypic traits but not others is affected by the joint action of gene flow and genetic correlations among traits. This simulation study shows that although gene flow is a potent constraining mechanism of population adaptive divergence, it may induce phenotypic divergence in traits under homogeneous selection among habitats if they are genetically correlated with traits under divergent selection. This correlated phenotypic divergence is a nonmonotonous function of migration and increases with mutational correlation among traits. It also increases with the number of divergently selected traits provided their genetic autonomy relative to the uniformly selected trait is reduced by specific patterns of genetic covariances: populations with lower effective trait dimensionality are more likely to generate very large correlated divergence. The correlated divergence is likely to be picked up by Q(ST)-F(ST) analysis of population genetic differentiation and be erroneously ascribed to adaptive divergence under divergent selection. This study emphasizes the necessity to understand the interaction between selection and the genetic basis of adaptation in a multivariate rather than univariate context.     

GENE FLOW AND SELECTION ON PHENOTYPIC PLASTICITY IN AN ISLAND SYSTEM OF RANA TEMPORARIA

Gene flow is often considered to be one of the main factors that constrains local adaptation in a heterogeneous environment. However, gene flow may also lead to the evolution of phenotypic plasticity. We investigated the effect of gene flow on local adaptation and phenotypic plasticity in development time in island populations of the common frog Rana temporaria which breed in pools that differ in drying regimes. This was done by investigating associations between traits (measured in a common garden experiment) and selective factors (pool drying regimes and gene flow from other populations inhabiting different environments) by regression analyses and by comparing pairwise F_ST values (obtained from microsatellite analyses) with pairwise Q_ST values. We found that the degree of phenotypic plasticity was positively correlated with gene flow from other populations inhabiting different environments (among‐island environmental heterogeneity), as well as with local environmental heterogeneity within each population. Furthermore, local adaptation, manifested in the correlation between development time and the degree of pool drying on the islands, appears to have been caused by divergent selection pressures. The local adaptation in development time and phenotypic plasticity is quite remarkable, because the populations are young (less than 300 generations) and substantial gene flow is present among islands.     

Signatures of selection in the three‐spined stickleback along a small‐scale brackish water – freshwater transition zone

Local adaptation is often obvious when gene flow is impeded, such as observed at large spatial scales and across strong ecological contrasts. However, it becomes less certain at small scales such as between adjacent populations or across weak ecological contrasts, when gene flow is strong. While studies on genomic adaptation tend to focus on the former, less is known about the genomic targets of natural selection in the latter situation. In this study, we investigate genomic adaptation in populations of the three‐spined stickleback Gasterosteus aculeatus L. across a small‐scale ecological transition with salinities ranging from brackish to fresh. Adaptation to salinity has been repeatedly demonstrated in this species. A genome scan based on 87 microsatellite markers revealed only few signatures of selection, likely owing to the constraints that homogenizing gene flow puts on adaptive divergence. However, the detected loci appear repeatedly as targets of selection in similar studies of genomic adaptation in the three‐spined stickleback. We conclude that the signature of genomic selection in the face of strong gene flow is weak, yet detectable. We argue that the range of studies of genomic divergence should be extended to include more systems characterized by limited geographical and ecological isolation, which is often a realistic setting in nature.     

The impact of regional landscape context on local maladaptive trait divergence: a field test using freshwater copepod acid tolerance

Theoretical work has shown that spatial landscape context can contribute to reducing local adaptation in populations depending on the spatial pattern of environmental heterogeneity, the spatial scale of distances between habitats on landscapes, and the level of habitat connectivity. However, only a handful of empirical studies have addressed the impact of regional landscape context on local trait divergence in natural populations. We tested if local adaptation in abiotic tolerance is diminished in landscapes with strong spatial heterogeneity and habitat proximity. We used a freshwater copepod (Leptodiaptomus minutus) that is known to show local adaptive divergence in acid tolerance as a study system to understand the effects of regional landscape-level spatial heterogeneity in lake/pond pH on local trait divergence. We compared local divergence in copepod acid tolerance from three types of landscapes: (i) a homogeneous pH landscape of exclusively circumneutral lakes (pH ≥ 6.0); (ii) a heterogeneous pH landscape with a mixture of acidic and circumneutral lakes; and (iii) a heterogeneous pH landscape in which relatively infrequent circumneutral ponds are embedded in a predominantly acidic landscape. We found that local adaptation to circumneutral lake/pond pH was most reduced in the pH-heterogeneous landscape dominated by acidic habitats, likely because of gene flow from surrounding nearby acidic ponds. Our study empirically confirms theoretical predictions that spatial landscape context is important for explaining regional differences in population environmental tolerances. These effects may become important for understanding regional differences in population fitness trade-offs when presented in combination with multiple stressors.     

Quantifying the constraining influence of gene flow on adaptive divergence in the lake-stream threespine stickleback system

The constraining effect of gene flow on adaptive divergence is often inferred but rarely quantified. We illustrate ways of doing so using stream populations of threespine stickleback (Gasterosteus aculeatus) that experience different levels of gene flow from a parapatric lake population. In the Misty Lake watershed (British Columbia, Canada), the inlet stream population is morphologically divergent from the lake population, and presumably experiences little gene flow from the lake. The outlet stream population, however, shows an intermediate phenotype and may experience more gene flow from the lake. We first used microsatellite data to demonstrate that gene flow from the lake is low into the inlet but high into the outlet, and that gene flow from the lake remains relatively constant with distance along the outlet. We next combined gene flow data with morphological and habitat data to quantify the effect of gene flow on morphological divergence. In one approach, we assumed that inlet stickleback manifest well-adapted phenotypic trait values not constrained by gene flow. We then calculated the deviation between the observed and expected phenotypes for a given habitat in the outlet. In a second approach, we parameterized a quantitative genetic model of adaptive divergence. Both approaches suggest a large impact of gene flow, constraining adaptation by 80-86% in the outlet (i.e., only 14-20% of the expected morphological divergence in the absence of gene flow was observed). Such approaches may be useful in other taxa to estimate how important gene flow is in constraining adaptive divergence in nature.     

Comparing the consequences of natural selection,adaptive phenotypic plasticity,and matching habitat choice for phenotype–environment matching,population genetic structure,and reproductive isolation in meta‐populations

Organisms commonly experience significant spatiotemporal variation in their environments. In response to such heterogeneity, different mechanisms may act that enhance ecological performance locally. However, depending on the nature of the mechanism involved, the consequences for populations may differ greatly. Building on a previous model that investigated the conditions under which different adaptive mechanisms (co)evolve, this study compares the ecological and evolutionary population consequences of three very different responses to environmental heterogeneity: matching habitat choice (directed gene flow), adaptive plasticity (associated with random gene flow), and divergent natural selection. Using individual‐based simulations, we show that matching habitat choice can have a greater adaptive potential than plasticity or natural selection: it allows for local adaptation while protecting genetic polymorphism despite global mating or strong environmental changes. Our simulations further reveal that increasing environmental fluctuations and unpredictability generally favor the emergence of specialist genotypes but that matching habitat choice is better at preventing local maladaptation by individuals. This confirms that matching habitat choice can speed up the genetic divergence among populations, cause indirect assortative mating via spatial clustering, and hence even facilitate sympatric speciation. This study highlights the potential importance of directed dispersal in local adaptation and speciation, stresses the difficulty of deriving its operation from nonexperimental observational data alone, and helps define a set of ecological conditions which should favor its emergence and subsequent detection in nature.     

Repeated and predictable patterns of ecotypic differentiation during a biological invasion: lake–stream divergence in parapatric Swiss stickleback

The relative importance of ecological selection and geographical isolation in promoting and constraining genetic and phenotypic differentiation among populations is not always obvious. Interacting with divergent selection, restricted opportunity for gene flow may in some cases be as much a cause as a consequence of adaptation, with the latter being a hallmark of ecological speciation. Ecological speciation is well studied in parts of the native range of the three‐spined stickleback. Here, we study this process in a recently invaded part of its range. Switzerland was colonized within the past 140 years from at least three different colonization events involving different stickleback lineages. They now occupy diverse habitats, ranging from small streams to the pelagic zone of large lakes. We use replicated systems of parapatric lake and stream populations, some of which trace their origins to different invasive lineages, to ask (i) whether phenotypic divergence occurred among populations inhabiting distinct habitats, (ii) whether trajectories of phenotypic divergence follow predictable parallel patterns and (iii) whether gene flow constrains divergent adaptation or vice versa. We find consistent phenotypic divergence between populations occupying distinct habitats. This involves parallel evolution in several traits with known ecological relevance in independent evolutionary lineages. Adaptive divergence supersedes homogenizing gene flow even at a small spatial scale. We find evidence that adaptive phenotypic divergence places constraints on gene flow over and above that imposed by geographical distance, signalling the early onset of ecological speciation.     

Disentangling structural genomic and behavioural barriers in a sea of connectivity

Genetic divergence among populations arises through natural selection or drift and is counteracted by connectivity and gene flow. In sympatric populations, isolating mechanisms are thus needed to limit the homogenizing effects of gene flow to allow for adaptation and speciation. Chromosomal inversions act as an important mechanism maintaining isolating barriers, yet their role in sympatric populations and divergence with gene flow is not entirely understood. Here, we revisit the question of whether inversions play a role in the divergence of connected populations of the marine fish Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua), by exploring a unique data set combining whole‐genome sequencing data and behavioural data obtained with acoustic telemetry. Within a confined fjord environment, we find three genetically differentiated Atlantic cod types belonging to the oceanic North Sea population, the western Baltic population and a local fjord‐type cod. Continuous behavioural tracking over 4 year revealed temporally stable sympatry of these types within the fjord. Despite overall weak genetic differentiation consistent with high levels of gene flow, we detected significant frequency shifts of three previously identified inversions, indicating an adaptive barrier to gene flow. In addition, behavioural data indicated that North Sea cod and individuals homozygous for the LG12 inversion had lower fitness in the fjord environment. However, North Sea and fjord‐type cod also occupy different depths, possibly contributing to prezygotic reproductive isolation and representing a behavioural barrier to gene flow. Our results provide the first insights into a complex interplay of genomic and behavioural isolating barriers in Atlantic cod and establish a new model system towards an understanding of the role of genomic structural variants in adaptation and diversification.     

Landscape genetic analyses reveal cryptic population structure and putative selection gradients in a large-scale estuarine environment

Disentangling the relative contributions of selective and neutral processes underlying phenotypic and genetic variation under natural, environmental conditions remains a central challenge in evolutionary ecology. However, much of the variation that could be informative in this area of research is likely to be cryptic in nature; thus, the identification of wild populations suitable for study may be problematic. We use a landscape genetics approach to identify such populations of three-spined stickleback inhabiting the Saint Lawrence River estuary. We sampled 1865 adult fish over multiple years. Individuals were genotyped for nine microsatellite loci, and georeferenced multilocus data were used to infer population groupings, as well as locations of genetic discontinuities, under a Bayesian model framework ( geneland ). We modelled environmental data using nonparametric multiple regression to explain genetic differentiation as a function of spatio-ecological effects. Additionally, we used genotype data to estimate dispersal and gene flow to parameterize a simple model predicting adaptive vs. plastic divergence between demes. We demonstrate a bipartite division of the genetic landscape into freshwater and maritime zones, independent of geographical distance. Moreover, we show that the greatest proportion of genetic variation (31.5%) is explained by environmental differences. However, the potential for either adaptive or plastic divergence between demes is highly dependent upon the strength of migration and selection. Consequently, we highlight the utility of landscape genetics as a tool for hypothesis generation and experimental design, to identify focal populations and putative selection gradients, in order to distinguish between phenotypic plasticity and local adaptation.     

Strong divergence in trait means but not in plasticity across hatchery and wild populations of sea-run brown trout Salmo trutta

There is ample evidence that organisms adapt to their native environment when gene flow is restricted. However, evolution of plastic responses across discrete environments is less well examined. We studied divergence in means and plasticity across wild and hatchery populations of sea-run brown trout (Salmo trutta) in a common garden experiment with two rearing environments (hatchery and a nearly natural experimental stream). Since natural and hatchery environments differ, this arrangement provides an experiment in contemporary adaptation across the two environments. A Q(ST) - F(ST) approach was used to investigate local adaptation in survival and growth over the first summer. We found evidence for divergent selection in survival in 1 year and in body length in both years and rearing environments. In general, the hatchery populations had higher survival and larger body size in both environments. Q(ST) in body size did not differ between the rearing environments, and constitutive divergence in the means was in all cases stronger than divergence in the plastic responses. These results suggest that in this system, constitutive changes in mean trait values are more important for local adaptation than increased plasticity. In addition, ex situ rearing conditions induce changes in trait means that are adaptive in the hatchery, but potentially harmful in the wild, suggesting that hatchery rearing is likely to be a suboptimal management strategy for trout populations facing selection in the stream environment.     

The influence of gene flow and drift on genetic and phenotypic divergence in two species of Zosterops in Vanuatu

Colonization of an archipelago sets the stage for adaptive radiation. However, some archipelagos are home to spectacular radiations, while others have much lower levels of diversification. The amount of gene flow among allopatric populations is one factor proposed to contribute to this variation. In island colonizing birds, selection for reduced dispersal ability is predicted to produce changing patterns of regional population genetic structure as gene flow-dominated systems give way to drift-mediated divergence. If this transition is important in facilitating phenotypic divergence, levels of genetic and phenotypic divergence should be associated. We consider population genetic structure and phenotypic divergence among two co-distributed, congeneric (Genus: Zosterops) bird species inhabiting the Vanuatu archipelago. The more recent colonist, Z. lateralis, exhibits genetic patterns consistent with a strong influence of distance-mediated gene flow. However, complex patterns of asymmetrical gene flow indicate variation in dispersal ability or inclination among populations. The endemic species, Z. flavifrons, shows only a partial transition towards a drift-mediated system, despite a long evolutionary history on the archipelago. We find no strong evidence that gene flow constrains phenotypic divergence in either species, suggesting that levels of inter-island gene flow do not explain the absence of a radiation across this archipelago.     

HETEROGENEOUS GENOMIC DIFFERENTIATION IN MARINE THREESPINE STICKLEBACKS: ADAPTATION ALONG AN ENVIRONMENTAL GRADIENT

Evolutionary divergence among populations occupying ecologically distinct environments can occur even in the face of on‐going gene flow. However, the genetic underpinnings, as well as the scale and magnitude at which this differentiation occurs in marine habitats are not well understood. We investigated the patterns and degree of genomic heterogeneity in threespine sticklebacks (Gasterosteus aculeatus) by assessing genetic variability in 20 nongenic and 20 genic (associated with genes important for freshwater adaptation) microsatellite loci in samples collected from 38 locations spanning the entire Baltic Sea coast to the North Sea boundary. Population divergence (F_ST ≈ 0.026) and structuring (five genetic clusters) was significantly more pronounced in the genic as compared to nongenic markers (F_ST ≈ 0.008; no genetic clusters). Patterns of divergence in the genic markers—45% of which were identified as outliers—correlated with local differences in salinity. Yet, a strong positive correlation between divergence in genic and nongenic markers, and their association with environmental factors suggests that adaptive divergence is reducing gene flow across the genome. Apart from providing a clear demonstration of heterogeneous genomic patterns of differentiation in a marine species, the results are indicative of adaptive population structuring across the relatively young Baltic Sea in spite of ample opportunities for gene flow.     

Integrating patterns of thermal tolerance and phenotypic plasticity with population genetics to improve understanding of vulnerability to warming in a widespread copepod

Differences in population vulnerability to warming are defined by spatial patterns in thermal adaptation. These patterns may be driven by natural selection over spatial environmental gradients, but can also be shaped by gene flow, especially in marine taxa with high dispersal potential. Understanding and predicting organismal responses to warming requires disentangling the opposing effects of selection and gene flow. We begin by documenting genetic divergence of thermal tolerance and developmental phenotypic plasticity. Ten populations of the widespread copepod Acartia tonsa were collected from sites across a large thermal gradient, ranging from the Florida Keys to Northern New Brunswick, Canada (spanning over 20° latitude). Thermal performance curves (TPCs) from common garden experiments revealed local adaptation at the sampling range extremes, with thermal tolerance increasing at low latitudes and decreasing at high latitudes. The opposite pattern was observed in phenotypic plasticity, which was strongest at high latitudes. No relationship was observed between phenotypic plasticity and environmental variables. Instead, the results are consistent with the hypothesis of a trade‐off between thermal tolerance and the strength of phenotypic plasticity. Over a large portion of the sampled range, however, we observed a remarkable lack of differentiation of TPCs. To examine whether this lack of divergence is the result of selection for a generalist performance curve or constraint by gene flow, we analyzed cytochrome oxidase I mtDNA sequences, which revealed four distinct genetic clades, abundant genetic diversity, and widely distributed haplotypes. Strong divergence in thermal performance within genetic clades, however, suggests that the pace of thermal adaptation can be relatively rapid. The combined insight from the laboratory physiological experiments and genetic data indicate that gene flow constrains differentiation of TPCs. This balance between gene flow and selection has implications for patterns of vulnerability to warming. Taking both genetic differentiation and phenotypic plasticity into account, our results suggest that local adaptation does not increase vulnerability to warming, and that low‐latitude populations in general may be more vulnerable to predicted temperature change over the next century.