Invasion dynamics and attractor inheritance

 We study the dynamics of a population of residents that is being invaded by an initially rare mutant. We show that under relatively mild conditions the sum of the mutant and resident population sizes stays arbitrarily close to the initial attractor of the monomorphic resident population whenever the mutant has a strategy sufficiently similar to that of the resident. For stochastic systems we show that the probability density of the sum of the mutant and resident population sizes stays arbitrarily close to the stationary probability density of the monomorphic resident population. Attractor switching, evolutionary suicide as well as most cases of ``the resident strikes back' in systems with multiple attractors are possible only near a bifurcation point in the strategy space where the resident attractor undergoes a discontinuous change. Away from such points, when the mutant takes over the population from the resident and hence becomes the new resident itself, the population stays on the same attractor. In other words, the new resident ``inherits' the attractor from its predecessor, the former resident. Received: 10 December 2000 / Revised version: 14 September 2001 / Published online: 17 May 2002     

Evolution of Dispersal in a Structured Metapopulation Model in Discrete Time

In this article, a structured metapopulation model in discrete time with catastrophes and density-dependent local growth is introduced. The fitness of a rare mutant in an environment set by the resident is defined, and an efficient method to calculate fitness is presented. With this fitness measure evolutionary analysis of this model becomes feasible. This article concentrates on the evolution of dispersal. The effect of catastrophes, dispersal cost, and local dynamics on the evolution of dispersal is investigated. It is proved that without catastrophes, if all population–dynamical attractors are fixed points, there will be selection for no dispersal. A new mechanism for evolutionary branching is also found: Even though local population sizes approach fixed points, catastrophes can cause enough temporal variability, so that evolutionary branching becomes possible.     

EVOLUTION OF DISPERSAL RATES IN METAPOPULATION MODELS: BRANCHING AND CYCLIC DYNAMICS IN PHENOTYPE SPACE

We study the evolution of dispersal rates in a two patch metapopulation model. The local dynamics in each patch are given by difference equations, which, together with the rate of dispersal between the patches, determine the ecological dynamics of the metapopulation. We assume that phenotypes are given by their dispersal rate. The evolutionary dynamics in phenotype space are determined by invasion exponents, which describe whether a mutant can invade a given resident population. If the resident metapopulation is at a stable equilibrium, then selection on dispersal rates is neutral if the population sizes in the two patches are the same, while selection drives dispersal rates to zero if the local abundances are different. With non-equilibrium metapopulation dynamics, non-zero dispersal rates can be maintained by selection. In this case, and if the patches are ecologically identical, dispersal rates always evolve to values which induce synchronized metapopulation dynamics. If the patches are ecologically different, evolutionary branching into two coexisting dispersal phenotypes can be observed. Such branching can happen repeatedly, leading to polymorphisms with more than two phenotypes. If there is a cost to dispersal, evolutionary cycling in phenotype space can occur due to the dependence of selection pressures on the ecological attractor of the resident population, or because phenotypic branching alternates with the extinction of one of the branches. Our results extend those of Holt and McPeek (1996), and suggest that phenotypic branching is an important evolutionary process. This process may be relevant for sympatric speciation.     

Consequences of asymmetric competition between resident and invasive defoliators: A novel empirically based modelling approach

Invasive species can have profound effects on a resident community via indirect interactions among community members. While long periodic cycles in population dynamics can make the experimental observation of the indirect effects difficult, modelling the possible effects on an evolutionary time scale may provide the much needed information on the potential threats of the invasive species on the ecosystem. Using empirical data from a recent invasion in northernmost Fennoscandia, we applied adaptive dynamics theory and modelled the long term consequences of the invasion by the winter moth into the resident community. Specifically, we investigated the outcome of the observed short-term asymmetric preferences of generalist predators and specialist parasitoids on the long term population dynamics of the invasive winter moth and resident autumnal moth sharing these natural enemies. Our results indicate that coexistence after the invasion is possible. However, the outcome of the indirect interaction on the population dynamics of the moth species was variable and the dynamics might not be persistent on an evolutionary time scale. In addition, the indirect interactions between the two moth species via shared natural enemies were able to cause asynchrony in the population cycles corresponding to field observations from previous sympatric outbreak areas. Therefore, the invasion may cause drastic changes in the resident community, for example by prolonging outbreak periods of birch-feeding moths, increasing the average population densities of the moths or, alternatively, leading to extinction of the resident moth species or to equilibrium densities of the two, formerly cyclic, herbivores.     

Evolution of migration in a metapopulation

In this paper a general deterministic discrete-time metapopulation model with a finite number of habitat patches is analysed within the framework of adaptive dynamics. We study a general model and prove analytically that (i) if the resident populations state is a fixed point, then the resident strategy with no migration is an evolutionarily stable strategy, (ii) a mutant population with no migration can invade any resident population in a fixed point state, (iii) in the uniform migration case the strategy not to migrate is attractive under small mutational steps so that selection favours low migration. Some of these results have been previously observed in simulations, but here they are proved analytically in a general case. If the resident population is in a two-cyclic orbit, then the situation is different. In the uniform migration case the invasion behaviour depends both on the type of the residents attractor and the survival probability during migration. If the survival probability during migration is low, then the system evolves towards low migration. If the survival probability is high enough, then evolutionary branching can happen and the system evolves to a situation with several coexisting types. In the case of out-of-phase attractor, evolutionary branching can happen with significantly lower survival probabilities than in the in-phase attractor case. Most results in the two-cyclic case are obtained by numerical simulations. Also, when migration is not uniform we observe in numerical simulations in the two-cyclic orbit case selection for low migration or evolutionary branching depending on the survival probability during migration.     

Advantage of storage in a fluctuating environment

We will elaborate the evolutionary course of an ecosystem consisting of a population in a chemostat environment with periodically fluctuating nutrient supply. The organisms that make up the population consist of structural biomass and energy storage compartments. In a constant chemostat environment a species without energy storage always out-competes a species with energy reserves. This hinders evolution of species with storage from those without storage. Using the adaptive dynamics approach for non-equilibrium ecological systems we will show that in a fluctuating environment there are multiple stable evolutionary singular strategies (ss's): one for a species without, and one for a species with energy storage. The evolutionary end-point depends on the initial evolutionary state. We will formulate the invasion fitness in terms of Floquet multipliers for the oscillating non-autonomous system. Bifurcation theory is used to study points where due to evolutionary development by mutational steps, the long-term dynamics of the ecological system changes qualitatively. To that end, at the ecological time scale, the trait value at which invasion of a mutant into a resident population becomes possible can be calculated using numerical bifurcation analysis where the trait is used as the free parameter, because it is just a bifurcation point. In a constant environment there is a unique stable equilibrium for one species following the "competitive exclusion" principle. In contrast, due to the oscillatory dynamics on the ecological time scale two species may coexist. That is, non-equilibrium dynamics enhances biodiversity. However, we will show that this coexistence is not stable on the evolutionary time scale and always one single species survives.     

Darwinian fitness

The term Darwinian fitness refers to the capacity of a variant type to invade and displace the resident population in competition for available resources. Classical models of this dynamical process claim that competitive outcome is a deterministic event which is regulated by the population growth rate, called the Malthusian parameter. Recent analytic studies of the dynamics of competition in terms of diffusion processes show that growth rate predicts invasion success only in populations of infinite size. In populations of finite size, competitive outcome is a stochastic process--contingent on resource constraints--which is determined by the rate at which a population returns to its steady state condition after a random perturbation in the individual birth and death rates. This return rate, a measure of robustness or population stability, is analytically characterized by the demographic parameter, evolutionary entropy, a measure of the uncertainty in the age of the mother of a randomly chosen newborn. This article appeals to computational and numerical methods to contrast the predictive power of the Malthusian and the entropic principles. The computational analysis rejects the Malthusian model and is consistent with of the entropic principle. These studies thus provide support for the general claim that entropy is the appropriate measure of Darwinian fitness and constitutes an evolutionary parameter with broad predictive and explanatory powers.     

MUTANT INVASIONS AND ADAPTIVE DYNAMICS IN VARIABLE ENVIRONMENTS

The evolution of natural organisms is ultimately driven by the invasion and possible fixation of mutant alleles. The invasion process is highly stochastic, however, and the probability of success is generally low, even for advantageous alleles. Additionally, all organisms live in a stochastic environment, which may have a large influence on what alleles are favorable, but also contributes to the uncertainty of the invasion process. We calculate the invasion probability of a beneficial, mutant allele in a monomorphic, large population subject to stochastic environmental fluctuations, taking into account density‐ and frequency‐dependent selection, stochastic population dynamics and temporal autocorrelation of the environment. We treat both discrete and continuous time population dynamics, and allow for overlapping generations in the continuous time case. The results can be generalized to diploid, sexually reproducing organisms embedded in communities of interacting species. We further use these results to derive an extended canonical equation of adaptive dynamics, predicting the rate of evolutionary change of a heritable trait on long evolutionary time scales.     

Multiple attractors in stage-structured population models with birth pulses

In most models of population dynamics, increases in population due to birth are assumed to be time-independent, but many species reproduce only during a single period of the year. A single species stage-structured model with density-dependent maturation rate and birth pulse is formulated. Using the discrete dynamical system determined by its Poincaré map, we report a detailed study of the various dynamics, including (a) existence and stability of nonnegative equilibria, (b) nonunique dynamics, meaning that several attractors coexist, (c) basins of attraction (defined as the set of the initial conditions leading to a certain type of attractor), (d) supertransients, and (e) chaotic attractors. The occurrence of these complex dynamic behaviour is related to the fact that minor changes in parameter or initial values can strikingly change the dynamic behaviours of system. Further, it is shown that periodic birth pulse, in effect, provides a natural period or cyclicity that allows multiple oscillatory solutions in the continuous dynamical systems.     

Alternative attractors in an ecological-genetic model of populations with non-overlapping generations

This study classifies and analyzes various bifurcations of fixed points of the simple model of population dynamics with its number described by Ricker’s model and intrapopulation parameters determined by a single di-allelic locus. The model considered shows such nonlinear phenomena as multistability and coexistence of alternative attractors, which can violate the simple combination of the action of evolutionary-genetic and density-dependent ecological-dynamic processes, where gene elimination is determined by the genotypes’ resource parameters and the population number stability depends on their Malthusian parameters. The most interesting pattern in this regard is existence of polymorphic attractors, when the resource parameter of heterozygotes is not maximal. It presents a clear violation of the principle of natural selection optimality, which is caused precisely by the multistable phenomena of nonlinear dynamics. By which of the alternative attractors the dynamics is characterized by depends sensitively on the initial conditions, even small external influences can became significant, as they can shift the system from one attraction basin to another, and thus fundamentally change the dynamic mode and nature of the evolutionary process.     

The Evolutionary Optimality of Oscillatory and Chaotic Dynamics in Simple Population Models

The problem is considered of whether natural selection favors genotypes characterized by oscillatory or chaotic population dynamics. This is done with reference to two simple one-dimensional models, which display a variety of dynamical patterns according to the different values of their parameters: the semelparous and iteroparous Ricker models. To lind the optimal genotype (or genotypes) within a given feasibility set, the concept of Continuously Stable Strategy (CSS) and a haploid model of competition between genotypes are used. The parameters subject to evolution are the intrinsic finite rate of increase and respectively the juvenile mortality in the semelparous model and the adult survival in the iteroparous one. In the semelparous case a single feasible CSS exists, while in the other case more than one CSS might exist. The dynamical nature of the optimal genotype (stable equilibrium, stable sustained oscillations or chaos) is basically determined by the shape of the set of feasibility for the parameters defining each genotype. However, if the feasibility set is drawn at random, the probability that the corresponding optimal genotype (or genotypes) be oscillatory or chaotic is quite low. This result, however, might not hold with more complex models.     

Spatial Dynamics and the Evolution of Enzyme Production

We re-examine the problem of the evolution of protein synthesis or enzyme production using a stochastic cellular automaton model, where the replicators are fixed in the sites of a two-dimensional square lattice. In contrast with the classical chemical kinetics or mean-field predictions, we show that a small colony of mutant, protein-mediated (enzymatic) replicators has an appreciable probability to take over a resident population of simpler, direct-template replicators. In addition, we argue that the threshold phenomenon corresponding to the onset of invasion can be described quantitatively within the physics framework of nonequilibrium phase transitions. We study also the invasion of a resident population of enzymatic replicators by more efficient replicators of the same kind, and show that although slightly more efficient mutants cannot invade, invasion is a likely event if the productivity advantage of the mutants is large. In this sense, the establishment of a population of enzymatic replicators is not a `once-forever' evolutionary decision.     

Relative nonlinearity and permanence

We modify the commonly used invasibility concept for coexistence of species to the stronger concept of uniform invasibility. For two-species discrete-time competition and predator-prey models, we use this concept to find broad easily checked sufficient conditions for the rigorous concept of permanent coexistence. With these results, permanent coexistence becomes a tractable concept for many discrete-time population models. To understand how these conditions apply to nonpoint attractors, we generalize the concept of relative nonlinearity and use it to show how population fluctuations affect the long-term low-density growth rate (“the invasion rate”) of a species when it is invading the system consisting of the other species (“the resident”) at a single-species attractor. The concept of relative nonlinearity defines circumstances when this invasion rate is increased or decreased by resident population fluctuations arising from a nonpoint attractor. The presence and sign of relative nonlinearity is easily checked in models of interacting species. When relative nonlinearity is zero or positive, fluctuations cannot decrease the invasion rate. It follows that permanence is then determined by invasibility of the resident’s fixed points. However, when relative nonlinearity is negative, invasibility, and hence permanent coexistence, can be undermined by resident population fluctuations. These results are illustrated with specific two-species competition and predator-prey models of generic forms.     

Stochastic evolutionary dynamics of direct reciprocity

Evolutionary game theory is the study of frequency-dependent selection. The success of an individual depends on the frequencies of strategies that are used in the population. We propose a new model for studying evolutionary dynamics in games with a continuous strategy space. The population size is finite. All members of the population use the same strategy. A mutant strategy is chosen from some distribution over the strategy space. The fixation probability of the mutant strategy in the resident population is calculated. The new mutant takes over the population with this probability. In this case, the mutant becomes the new resident. Otherwise, the existing resident remains. Then, another mutant is generated. These dynamics lead to a stationary distribution over the entire strategy space. Our new approach generalizes classical adaptive dynamics in three ways: (i) the population size is finite; (ii) mutants can be drawn non-locally and (iii) the dynamics are stochastic. We explore reactive strategies in the repeated Prisoner''s Dilemma. We perform ‘knock-out experiments’ to study how various strategies affect the evolution of cooperation. We find that ‘tit-for-tat’ is a weak catalyst for the emergence of cooperation, while ‘always cooperate’ is a strong catalyst for the emergence of defection. Our analysis leads to a new understanding of the optimal level of forgiveness that is needed for the evolution of cooperation under direct reciprocity.     

Stochasticity and spatial coexistence of semelparity and iteroparity as life histories

We investigate conditions enabling long-term coexistence of semelparity (reproducing only once per lifetime) and iteroparity (repeated spells of reproduction in subsequent breeding seasons). Bulmer (1985, 1994) has transferred the study of the fitness merit of reproducing semelparously vs. iteroparously into a density-dependent system, using an invasion scenario with an abundant resident population of one reproductive strategy and a rare mutant invader population of another reproductive strategy. For stable population dynamics, Bulmer (1994) derived condition v + P _A < 1 (P _A is adult survival and v is the ratio of offspring number of the iteroparous type over that of the semelparous type) where a semelparous population cannot be invaded by an iteroparous strategy. In order to study the generalisation of Bulmer's results in spatial population dynamics, we generate a population system consisting of a linear string of habitable sub-units. The sub-units are semi-independent, obeying discrete-time Ricker dynamics in renewal, but they are close enough for dispersing individuals to couple them together. At each time step, a random fraction of individuals in each sub-unit disperses into neighbourhood. In this setting, we observe long-term persistence of semelparity and iteroparity when dispersal is stochastic and positively autocorrelated. Stochasticity in dispersal creates fluctuating local dynamics and thus permits long-term persisting coexistence of semelparity and iteroparity even in the parameter region where Ricker dynamics are stable and the Bulmer inequality is true. Positively autocorrelated, in contrast to negatively autocorrelated dispersal time-series, promoted coexistence between semelparity and iteroparity.     

Evolution and persistence of obligate mutualists and exploiters: competition for partners and evolutionary immunization

Mutualisms are ubiquitous in nature, as is their exploitation by both conspecific and heterospecific cheaters. Yet, evolutionary theory predicts that cheating should be favoured by natural selection. Here, we show theoretically that asymmetrical competition for partners generally determines the evolutionary fate of obligate mutualisms facing exploitation by third-species invaders. When asymmetry in partner competition is relatively weak, mutualists may either exclude exploiters or coexist with them, in which case their co-evolutionary response to exploitation is usually benign. When asymmetry is strong, the mutualists evolve towards evolutionary attractors where they become extremely vulnerable to exploiter invasion. However, exploiter invasion at an early stage of the mutualism's history can deflect mutualists' co-evolutionary trajectories towards slightly different attractors that confer long-term stability against further exploitation. Thus, coexistence of mutualists and exploiters may often involve an historical effect whereby exploiters are co-opted early in mutualism history and provide lasting 'evolutionary immunization' against further invasion.     

The ideal free distribution as an evolutionarily stable state in density‐dependent population games

In classical games that have been applied to ecology, individual fitness is either density independent or population density is fixed. This article focuses on the habitat selection game where fitness depends on the population density that evolves over time. This model assumes that changes in animal distribution operate on a fast time scale when compared to demographic processes. Of particular interest is whether it is true, as one might expect, that resident phenotypes who use density‐dependent optimal foraging strategies are evolutionarily stable with respect to invasions by mutant strategies. In fact, we show that evolutionary stability does not require that residents use the evolutionarily stable strategy (ESS) at every population density; rather it is the combined resident–mutant system that must be at an evolutionary stable state. That is, the separation of time scales assumption between behavioral and ecological processes does not imply that these processes are independent. When only consumer population dynamics in several habitats are considered (i. e. when resources do not undergo population dynamics), we show that the existence of optimal foragers forces the resident‐mutant system to approach carrying capacity in each habitat even though the mutants do not die out. Thus, the ideal free distribution (IFD) for the single‐species habitat selection game becomes an evolutionarily stable state that describes a mixture of resident and mutant phenotypes rather than a strategy adopted by all individuals in the system. Also discussed is how these results are affected when animal distribution and demographic processes act on the same time scale.     

Evolutionary stability in Lotka-Volterra systems

The Lotka-Volterra model of population ecology, which assumes all individuals in each species behave identically, is combined with the behavioral evolution model of evolutionary game theory. In the resultant monomorphic situation, conditions for the stability of the resident Lotka-Volterra system, when perturbed by a mutant phenotype in each species, are analysed. We develop an evolutionary ecology stability concept, called a monomorphic evolutionarily stable ecological equilibrium, which contains as a special case the original definition by Maynard Smith of an evolutionarily stable strategy for a single species. Heuristically, the concept asserts that the resident ecological system must be stable as well as the phenotypic evolution on the "stationary density surface". The conditions are also shown to be central to analyse stability issues in the polymorphic model that allows arbitrarily many phenotypes in each species, especially when the number of species is small. The mathematical techniques are from the theory of dynamical systems, including linearization, centre manifolds and Molchanov's Theorem.     

DOES EVOLUTION OF ITEROPAROUS AND SEMELPAROUS REPRODUCTION CALL FOR SPATIALLY STRUCTURED SYSTEMS?

Abstract.— A persistent question in the evolution of life histories is the fitness trade-off between reproducing only once (semelparity) in a lifetime or reproducing repeated times in different seasons (iteroparity). The problem can be formulated into a research agenda by assuming that one reproductive strategy is resident (has already evolved) and by asking whether invasion (evolution) of an alternative reproductive strategy is possible. For a spatially nonstructured system, Bulmer (1994) derived the relationship v + PA < 1 (PA is adult survival; vbs and bs are offspring numbers for iteroparous and semelparous breeding strategies, respectively) at which semelparous population cannot be invaded by an iteroparous mutant. When the inequality is changed to v + PA > 1, invasion of a semelparous mutant is not possible. From the inequalities, it is easy to see that possibilities for evolutionary establishment of a novel reproductive strategy are rather narrow. We extended the evolutionary scenario into a spatially structured system with dispersal linkage among the subunits. In this domain, a rare reproductive strategy can easily invade a population dominated by a resident reproductive strategy. The parameter space enabling invasion is far more generous with spatially structured evolutionary scenarios than in a spatially nonstructured system.     

Environmental variability and semelparity vs. iteroparity as life histories

Research on the evolution of life histories addresses the topic of fitness trade-offs between semelparity (reproducing once in a lifetime) and iteroparity (repeated reproductive bouts per lifetime). Bulmer (1994) derived the relationship v+P(A)<1 (P(A) is the adult survival;vb(S) and b(S) are the offspring numbers for iteroparous and semelparous breeding strategies, respectively), under which a resident semelparous population cannot be invaded by an iteroparous mutant when the underlying population dynamics are stable. We took Bulmer's population dynamics, and added noise in juvenile and adult survival and in offspring numbers. Long-term coexistence of the two strategies is possible in much of the parameter region ofv +P(A)<1 when noise occurs simultaneously in all three components, or (more restricted) when it affects juvenile and adult survival or adult survival and offspring numbers. Iteroparity cannot persist when the environmental variability involves juvenile survival and offspring numbers, or when the noise acts on the three components separately.