Bayesian analysis of wildlife age-at-harvest data

SUMMARY: State and federal natural resource management agencies often collect age-structured harvest data. These data represent finite realizations of stochastic demographic and sampling processes and have long been used by biologists to infer population trends. However, different sources of data have been combined in ad hoc ways and these methods usually failed to incorporate sampling error. In this article, we propose a "hidden process" (or state-space) model for estimating abundance, survival, recovery rate, and recruitment from age-at-harvest data that incorporate both demographic and sampling stochasticity. To this end, a likelihood for age-at-harvest data is developed by embedding a population dynamics model within a model for the sampling process. Under this framework, the identification of abundance parameters can be achieved by conducting a joint analysis with an auxiliary data set. We illustrate this approach by conducting a Bayesian analysis of age-at-harvest and mark-recovery data from black bears (Ursus americanus) in Pennsylvania. Using a set of reasonable prior distributions, we demonstrate a substantial increase in precision when posterior summaries of abundance are compared to a bias-corrected Lincoln-Petersen estimator. Because demographic processes link consecutive abundance estimates, we also obtain a more realistic biological picture of annual changes in abundance. Because age-at-harvest data are often readily obtained, we argue that this type of analysis provides a valuable strategy for wildlife population monitoring.     

Evaluation of Accuracy and Precision of Downing Population Reconstruction

ABSTRACT Downing population reconstruction uses harvest-by-age data and backward addition of cohorts to estimate minimum population size over time. Although this technique is currently being used for management of black bear (Ursus americanus) and white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) populations, it had not undergone a rigorous evaluation of accuracy. We used computer simulations to evaluate the impacts of collapsing age classes and violating the assumptions of this technique on population reconstruction estimates and trends. Changes in harvest rate or survival over time affected accuracy of reconstructed population estimates and trends. The technique was quite robust to collapsing age classes as far as 3+ for bears and deer. This method would be suitable for estimating population growth rate (λ) for populations experiencing no trend in harvest rate or natural mortality rate over time. Our evaluation showed Downing population reconstruction to be a potentially valuable tool for managing harvested species with high harvest rates and low natural mortality, with possible application to black bear and white-tailed deer populations.     

A Method for Investigating Population Declines of Migratory Birds Using Stable Isotopes: Origins of Harvested Lesser Scaup in North America

Background

Elucidating geographic locations from where migratory birds are recruited into adult breeding populations is a fundamental but largely elusive goal in conservation biology. This is especially true for species that breed in remote northern areas where field-based demographic assessments are logistically challenging.

Methodology/Findings

Here we used hydrogen isotopes (δD) to determine natal origins of migrating hatch-year lesser scaup (Aythya affinis) harvested by hunters in the United States from all North American flyways during the hunting seasons of 1999–2000 (n = 412) and 2000–2001 (n = 455). We combined geospatial, observational, and analytical data sources, including known scaup breeding range, δD values of feathers from juveniles at natal sites, models of δD for growing-season precipitation, and scaup band-recovery data to generate probabilistic natal origin landscapes for individual scaup. We then used Monte Carlo integration to model assignment uncertainty from among individual δD variance estimates from birds of known molt origin and also from band-return data summarized at the flyway level. We compared the distribution of scaup natal origin with the distribution of breeding population counts obtained from systematic long-term surveys.

Conclusions/Significance

Our analysis revealed that the proportion of young scaup produced in the northern (above 60°N) versus the southern boreal and Prairie-Parkland region was inversely related to the proportions of breeding adults using these regions, suggesting that despite having a higher relative abundance of breeding adults, the northern boreal region was less productive for scaup recruitment into the harvest than more southern biomes. Our approach for evaluating population declines of migratory birds (particularly game birds) synthesizes all available distributional data and exploits the advantages of intrinsic isotopic markers that link individuals to geography.     

Comparison of statistical population reconstruction using full and pooled adult age-class data

Background

Age-at-harvest data are among the most commonly collected, yet neglected, demographic data gathered by wildlife agencies. Statistical population construction techniques can use this information to estimate the abundance of wild populations over wide geographic areas and concurrently estimate recruitment, harvest, and natural survival rates. Although current reconstruction techniques use full age-class data (0.5, 1.5, 2.5, 3.5, … years), it is not always possible to determine an animal''s age due to inaccuracy of the methods, expense, and logistics of sample collection. The ability to inventory wild populations would be greatly expanded if pooled adult age-class data (e.g., 0.5, 1.5, 2.5+ years) could be successfully used in statistical population reconstruction.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We investigated the performance of statistical population reconstruction models developed to analyze full age-class and pooled adult age-class data. We performed Monte Carlo simulations using a stochastic version of a Leslie matrix model, which generated data over a wide range of abundance levels, harvest rates, and natural survival probabilities, representing medium-to-big game species. Results of full age-class and pooled adult age-class population reconstructions were compared for accuracy and precision. No discernible difference in accuracy was detected, but precision was slightly reduced when using the pooled adult age-class reconstruction. On average, the coefficient of variation increased by 0.059 when the adult age-class data were pooled prior to analyses. The analyses and maximum likelihood model for pooled adult age-class reconstruction are illustrated for a black-tailed deer (Odocoileus hemionus) population in Washington State.

Conclusions/Significance

Inventorying wild populations is one of the greatest challenges of wildlife agencies. These new statistical population reconstruction models should expand the demographic capabilities of wildlife agencies that have already collected pooled adult age-class data or are seeking a cost-effective method for monitoring the status and trends of our wild resources.     

Evaluation of two methods to estimate and monitor bird populations

Background

Effective management depends upon accurately estimating trends in abundance of bird populations over time, and in some cases estimating abundance. Two population estimation methods, double observer (DO) and double sampling (DS), have been advocated for avian population studies and the relative merits and short-comings of these methods remain an area of debate.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We used simulations to evaluate the performances of these two population estimation methods under a range of realistic scenarios. For three hypothetical populations with different levels of clustering, we generated DO and DS population size estimates for a range of detection probabilities and survey proportions. Population estimates for both methods were centered on the true population size for all levels of population clustering and survey proportions when detection probabilities were greater than 20%. The DO method underestimated the population at detection probabilities less than 30% whereas the DS method remained essentially unbiased. The coverage probability of 95% confidence intervals for population estimates was slightly less than the nominal level for the DS method but was substantially below the nominal level for the DO method at high detection probabilities. Differences in observer detection probabilities did not affect the accuracy and precision of population estimates of the DO method. Population estimates for the DS method remained unbiased as the proportion of units intensively surveyed changed, but the variance of the estimates decreased with increasing proportion intensively surveyed.

Conclusions/Significance

The DO and DS methods can be applied in many different settings and our evaluations provide important information on the performance of these two methods that can assist researchers in selecting the method most appropriate for their particular needs.     

An Integrated Population Model for Harvest Management of Atlantic Brant

Atlantic brant (Branta bernicla hrota) are important game birds in the Atlantic Flyway and several long-term monitoring data sets could assist with harvest management, including a count-based survey and demographic data. Considering their relative strengths and weaknesses, integrated analysis to these data would likely improve harvest management, but tools for integration have not yet been developed. Managers currently use an aerial count survey on the wintering grounds, the mid-winter survey, to set harvest regulations. We developed an integrated population model (IPM) for Atlantic brant that uses multiple data sources to simultaneously estimate population abundance, survival, and productivity. The IPM abundance estimates for data from 1975–2018 were less variable than annual mid-winter survey counts or Lincoln estimates, presumably reflecting better accounting for observer error and incorporation of demographic estimates by the IPM. Posterior estimates of adult survival were high (0.77–0.87), and harvest rates of adults and juveniles were positively correlated with more liberal hunting regulations (i.e., hunting days and the daily bag limit). Productivity was variable, with the percent of juveniles in the winter population ranging from 1% to >40%. We found no evidence for environmental relationships with productivity. Using IPM-predicted population abundances rather than mid-winter survey counts alone would have meant fewer annual changes to hunting regulations since 2004. Use of the IPM could improve harvest management for Atlantic brant by providing the ability to predict abundance before annual hunting regulations are set, and by providing more stable hunting regulations, with fewer annual changes. © 2021 The Wildlife Society.     

Bear-Baiting May Exacerbate Wolf-Hunting Dog Conflict

Background

The influence of policy on the incidence of human-wildlife conflict can be complex and not entirely anticipated. Policies for managing bear hunter success and depredation on hunting dogs by wolves represent an important case because with increasing wolves, depredations are expected to increase. This case is challenging because compensation for wolf depredation on hunting dogs as compared to livestock is less common and more likely to be opposed. Therefore, actions that minimize the likelihood of such conflicts are a conservation need.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We used data from two US states with similar wolf populations but markedly different wolf/hunting dog depredation patterns to examine the influence of bear hunting regulations, bear hunter to wolf ratios, hunter method, and hunter effort on wolf depredation trends. Results indicated that the ratio of bear hunting permits sold per wolf, and hunter method are important factors affecting wolf depredation trends in the Upper Great Lakes region, but strong differences exist between Michigan and Wisconsin related in part to the timing and duration of bear-baiting (i.e., free feeding). The probability that a wolf depredated a bear-hunting dog increases with the duration of bear-baiting, resulting in a relative risk of depredation 2.12–7.22× greater in Wisconsin than Michigan. The net effect of compensation for hunting dog depredation in Wisconsin may also contribute to the difference between states.

Conclusions/Significance

These results identified a potential tradeoff between bear hunting success and wolf/bear-hunting dog conflict. These results indicate that management options to minimize conflict exist, such as adjusting baiting regulations. If reducing depredations is an important goal, this analysis indicates that actions aside from (or in addition to) reducing wolf abundance might achieve that goal. This study also stresses the need to better understand the relationship among baiting practices, the effect of compensation on hunter behavior, and depredation occurrence.     

The shared preference niche of sympatric Asiatic black bears and sun bears in a tropical forest mosaic

Background

Ecologically similar species often coexist by partitioning use of habitats or resources. Such partitioning can occur through divergent or shared niches. We investigated overlap in habitat use and spatial co-occurrence by sympatric Asiatic black bears and sun bears in three habitats in Thailand, and thereby assessed which niche model best accounts for their coexistence.

Methods/Principal Findings

We used density of species-specific signs to assess habitat use. Signs of both bear species occurred in all three habitats, and on >60% of sampling transects. Both species fed mostly on fruit; insect feeding signs were uncommon, and were mostly from sun bears. Significant differences in habitat use occurred only in montane forest, the habitat in which fruit was most abundant; incidence of black bear sign there was six times higher than that of sun bears. Habitat use was similar between the two species in the other habitats, which comprised 85% of the area. Of 10 habitat attributes examined, fruiting tree density was the best predictor of occurrence for both species. Models that included interspecific competition (fresh foraging activity of the other species) were less supported than the top models without competition.

Conclusions/Significance

Bear species co-occurrence at both coarse and fine spatial scales and use of the same resources (fruit trees) indicated common niche preferences. However, their habitat use differed in ways expected from their physical differences: larger black bears dominated in the most fruit-rich habitat, and smaller sun bears used less-preferred insects. These results indicate broadly overlapping fundamental niches combined with asymmetric competition—features consistent with the concept of shared preference niches. This model of the niche has received little attention in ecology, but appears to be relatively common in nature.     

Uncertainty in population growth rates: determining confidence intervals from point estimates of parameters

Background

Demographic models are widely used in conservation and management, and their parameterisation often relies on data collected for other purposes. When underlying data lack clear indications of associated uncertainty, modellers often fail to account for that uncertainty in model outputs, such as estimates of population growth.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We applied a likelihood approach to infer uncertainty retrospectively from point estimates of vital rates. Combining this with resampling techniques and projection modelling, we show that confidence intervals for population growth estimates are easy to derive. We used similar techniques to examine the effects of sample size on uncertainty. Our approach is illustrated using data on the red fox, Vulpes vulpes, a predator of ecological and cultural importance, and the most widespread extant terrestrial mammal. We show that uncertainty surrounding estimated population growth rates can be high, even for relatively well-studied populations. Halving that uncertainty typically requires a quadrupling of sampling effort.

Conclusions/Significance

Our results compel caution when comparing demographic trends between populations without accounting for uncertainty. Our methods will be widely applicable to demographic studies of many species.     

Projected Polar Bear Sea Ice Habitat in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago

Background

Sea ice across the Arctic is declining and altering physical characteristics of marine ecosystems. Polar bears (Ursus maritimus) have been identified as vulnerable to changes in sea ice conditions. We use sea ice projections for the Canadian Arctic Archipelago from 2006 – 2100 to gain insight into the conservation challenges for polar bears with respect to habitat loss using metrics developed from polar bear energetics modeling.

Principal Findings

Shifts away from multiyear ice to annual ice cover throughout the region, as well as lengthening ice-free periods, may become critical for polar bears before the end of the 21^st century with projected warming. Each polar bear population in the Archipelago may undergo 2–5 months of ice-free conditions, where no such conditions exist presently. We identify spatially and temporally explicit ice-free periods that extend beyond what polar bears require for nutritional and reproductive demands.

Conclusions/Significance

Under business-as-usual climate projections, polar bears may face starvation and reproductive failure across the entire Archipelago by the year 2100.     

Mark–recapture using tetracycline and genetics reveal record-high bear density

We used tetracycline biomarking, augmented with genetic methods to estimate the size of an American black bear (Ursus americanus) population on an island in Southeast Alaska. We marked 132 and 189 bears that consumed remote, tetracycline-laced baits in 2 different years, respectively, and observed 39 marks in 692 bone samples subsequently collected from hunters. We genetically analyzed hair samples from bait sites to determine the sex of marked bears, facilitating derivation of sex-specific population estimates. We obtained harvest samples from beyond the study area to correct for emigration. We estimated a density of 155 independent bears/100 km², which is equivalent to the highest recorded for this species. This high density appears to be maintained by abundant, accessible natural food. Our population estimate (approx. 1,000 bears) could be used as a baseline and to set hunting quotas. The refined biomarking method for abundance estimation is a useful alternative where physical captures or DNA-based estimates are precluded by cost or logistics. © 2011 The Wildlife Society.     

The seed bank longevity index revisited: limited reliability evident from a burial experiment and database analyses

Background and Aims

Seed survival in the soil contributes to population persistence and community diversity, creating a need for reliable measures of soil seed bank persistence. Several methods estimate soil seed bank persistence, most of which count seedlings emerging from soil samples. Seasonality, depth distribution and presence (or absence) in vegetation are then used to classify a species'' soil seed bank into persistent or transient, often synthesized into a longevity index. This study aims to determine if counts of seedlings from soil samples yield reliable seed bank persistence estimates and if this is correlated to seed production.

Methods

Seeds of 38 annual weeds taken from arable fields were buried in the field and their viability tested by germination and tetrazolium tests at 6 month intervals for 2·5 years. This direct measure of soil seed survival was compared with indirect estimates from the literature, which use seedling emergence from soil samples to determine seed bank persistence. Published databases were used to explore the generality of the influence of reproductive capacity on seed bank persistence estimates from seedling emergence data.

Key Results

There was no relationship between a species'' soil seed survival in the burial experiment and its seed bank persistence estimate from published data using seedling emergence from soil samples. The analysis of complementary data from published databases revealed that while seed bank persistence estimates based on seedling emergence from soil samples are generally correlated with seed production, estimates of seed banks from burial experiments are not.

Conclusions

The results can be explained in terms of the seed size–seed number trade-off, which suggests that the higher number of smaller seeds is compensated after germination. Soil seed bank persistence estimates correlated to seed production are therefore not useful for studies on population persistence or community diversity. Confusion of soil seed survival and seed production can be avoided by separate use of soil seed abundance and experimental soil seed survival.Key words: Arable weeds, Bifora testiculata, Carthamus lanatus, Centaurea solstitialis, longevity index, seed bank persistence, soil seed bank     

Declining Orangutan Encounter Rates from Wallace to the Present Suggest the Species Was Once More Abundant

Background

Bornean orangutans (Pongo pygmaeus) currently occur at low densities and seeing a wild one is a rare event. Compared to present low encounter rates of orangutans, it is striking how many orangutan each day historic collectors like Alfred Russel Wallace were able to shoot continuously over weeks or even months. Does that indicate that some 150 years ago encounter rates with orangutans, or their densities, were higher than now?

Methodology/Principal Findings

We test this hypothesis by quantifying encounter rates obtained from hunting accounts, museum collections, and recent field studies, and analysing whether there is a declining trend over time. Logistic regression analyses of our data support such a decline on Borneo between the mid-19th century and the present. Even when controlled for variation in the size of survey and hunting teams and the durations of expeditions, mean daily encounter rates appear to have declined about 6-fold in areas with little or no forest disturbance.

Conclusions/Significance

This finding has potential consequences for our understanding of orangutans, because it suggests that Bornean orangutans once occurred at higher densities. We explore potential explanations—habitat loss and degradation, hunting, and disease—and conclude that hunting fits the observed patterns best. This suggests that hunting has been underestimated as a key causal factor of orangutan density and distribution, and that species population declines have been more severe than previously estimated based on habitat loss only. Our findings may require us to rethink the biology of orangutans, with much of our ecological understanding possibly being based on field studies of animals living at lower densities than they did historically. Our approach of quantifying species encounter rates from historic data demonstrates that this method can yield valuable information about the ecology and population density of species in the past, providing new insight into species'' conservation needs.     

Prevalence,Correlates, and Description of Self-Reported Diabetes in Brazilian Capitals – Results from a Telephone Survey

Introduction

The prevalence of diabetes is increasing worldwide. The objective of this study is to estimate the prevalence of self-reported diabetes in Brazilian adults and to describe its population correlates as well as the clinical characteristics of the reported cases.

Methods

We analyzed basic and supplementary data of 54.144 subjects participating in VIGITEL 2011 (Surveillance System for Risk and Protective Factors for Chronic Diseases), a telephone survey based on a probabilistic sample of subjects ≥18 years old residing in Brazilian state capitals and the Federal District. Estimates reported are weighted so as to represent the surveyed population.

Results

The prevalence of self-reported diabetes was 6.3% (95% CI 5.9–6.7), increasing markedly with age and nutritional status, and decreasing with level of education. Prevalence was higher among those self-declaring their race/color as black. Most cases (90%) reported the diagnosis being made at 35 years or older. The vast majority (99.8%) of self-reported cases informed having previously performed at least one glucose test, and 76% of those not reporting diabetes also informed having previously performed glucose testing. Most cases (92.6%) reported following some form of diabetes treatment, 79% taking medication.

Conclusion

The estimated prevalence of known diabetes found, 6.3%, is consistent with estimates given by international summaries. The additional data collected in VIGITEL 2011 regarding previous glucose testing and current treatment support the use of telephone-based information to monitor the prevalence of known diabetes in Brazilian capitals.     

Modelling pollination services across agricultural landscapes

Background and Aims

Crop pollination by bees and other animals is an essential ecosystem service. Ensuring the maintenance of the service requires a full understanding of the contributions of landscape elements to pollinator populations and crop pollination. Here, the first quantitative model that predicts pollinator abundance on a landscape is described and tested.

Methods

Using information on pollinator nesting resources, floral resources and foraging distances, the model predicts the relative abundance of pollinators within nesting habitats. From these nesting areas, it then predicts relative abundances of pollinators on the farms requiring pollination services. Model outputs are compared with data from coffee in Costa Rica, watermelon and sunflower in California and watermelon in New Jersey–Pennsylvania (NJPA).

Key Results

Results from Costa Rica and California, comparing field estimates of pollinator abundance, richness or services with model estimates, are encouraging, explaining up to 80 % of variance among farms. However, the model did not predict observed pollinator abundances on NJPA, so continued model improvement and testing are necessary. The inability of the model to predict pollinator abundances in the NJPA landscape may be due to not accounting for fine-scale floral and nesting resources within the landscapes surrounding farms, rather than the logic of our model.

Conclusions

The importance of fine-scale resources for pollinator service delivery was supported by sensitivity analyses indicating that the model''s predictions depend largely on estimates of nesting and floral resources within crops. Despite the need for more research at the finer-scale, the approach fills an important gap by providing quantitative and mechanistic model from which to evaluate policy decisions and develop land-use plans that promote pollination conservation and service delivery.Key words: Agriculture, bees, ecosystem services, landscape ecology, model, land use, pollinators     

Random Effects Models and Multistage Estimation Procedures for Statistical Population Reconstruction of Small Game Populations

Recently, statistical population models using age-at-harvest data have seen increasing use for monitoring of harvested wildlife populations. Even more recently, detailed evaluation of model performance for long-lived, large game animals indicated that the use of random effects to incorporate unmeasured environmental variation, as well as second-stage Horvitz-Thompson-type estimators of abundance, provided more reliable estimates of total abundance than previous models. We adapt this new modeling framework to small game, age-at-harvest models with only young-of-the-year and adult age classes. Our Monte Carlo simulation results indicate superior model performance for the new modeling framework, evidenced by lower bias and proper confidence interval coverage. We apply this method to male wild turkey harvest in the East Ozarks turkey productivity region, Missouri, USA, where statistical population reconstruction indicates a relatively stationary population for 1996–2010.     

Spatio-temporal variation in male white-tailed deer harvest rates in Pennsylvania: Implications for estimating abundance

The performance of 2 popular methods that use age-at-harvest data to estimate abundance of white-tailed deer is contingent on assumptions about variation in estimates of subadult (1.5 yr old) and adult (≥2.5 yr old) male harvest rates. Auxiliary data (e.g., estimates of survival or harvest rates from radiocollared animals) can be used to relax some assumptions, but unless these population parameters exhibit limited temporal or spatial variation, these auxiliary data may not improve accuracy. Unfortunately maintaining sufficient sample sizes of radiocollared deer for parameter estimation in every wildlife management unit (WMU) is not feasible for most state agencies. We monitored the fates of 397 subadult and 225 adult male white-tailed deer across 4 WMUs from 2002 to 2008 using radio telemetry. We investigated spatial and temporal variation in harvest rates and investigated covariates related to the patterns observed. We found that most variation in harvest rates was explained spatially and that adult harvest rates (0.36–0.69) were more variable among study areas than subadult harvest rates (0.26–0.42). We found that hunter effort during the archery and firearms season best explained variation in harvest rates of adult males among WMUs, whereas hunter effort during only the firearms season best explained harvest rates for subadult males. From a population estimation perspective, it is advantageous that most variation was spatial and explained by a readily obtained covariate (hunter effort). However, harvest rates may vary if hunting regulations or hunter behavior change, requiring additional field studies to obtain accurate estimates of harvest rates. © 2011 The Wildlife Society.     

Comparison of HIV prevalence estimates for Zimbabwe from antenatal clinic surveillance (2006) and the 2005-06 Zimbabwe Demographic and Health Survey

Objective

To assess whether HIV surveillance data from pregnant women attending antenatal care (ANC) clinics in Zimbabwe represent infection levels in the general population.

Methods

HIV prevalence estimates from ANC surveillance sites in 2006 were compared with estimates from the corresponding Zimbabwe Demographic and Health Survey 2005–06 (ZDHS) clusters using geographic information systems.

Results

The ANC HIV prevalence estimate (17.9%, 95% CI 17.0%–18.8%) was similar to the ZDHS estimates for all men and women aged 15–49 years (18.1%, 16.9%–18.8%), for pregnant women (17.5%, 13.9%–21.9%), and for ANC attendees living within 30 km of ANC surveillance sites (19.9%, 17.1%–22.8%). However, the ANC surveillance estimate (17.9%) was lower than the ZDHS estimates for all women (21.1%, 19.7%–22.6%) and for women living within 30 km catchment areas of ANC surveillance sites (20.9%, 19.4%–22.3%). HIV prevalence in ANC sites classified as urban and rural was significantly lower than in sites classified as “other”.

Conclusions

Periodic population surveys can be used to validate ANC surveillance estimates. In Zimbabwe, ANC surveillance provides reliable estimates of HIV prevalence among men and women aged 15–49 years in the general population. Three classifications of ANC sites (rural/urban/other) should be used when generating national HIV estimates.     

Diagnosing Mechanisms of Decline and Planning for Recovery of an Endangered Brown Bear (Ursus arctos) Population

Background

The usual paradigm for translocations is that they should not take place in declining populations until the causes(s) of the decline has been reversed. This approach sounds intuitive, but may not apply in cases where population decline is caused by behavioral or demographic mechanisms that could only be reversed by translocation itself.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We analyzed a decade of field data for Pyrenean brown bears (Ursus arctos) from two small populations: the growing Central population - created from a previous translocation and the endemic Western population - believed to be declining because of excessive human-caused mortality. We found that adult survival rates for both populations were as high as those observed for most other protected brown bear populations. However, the Western population had much lower reproductive success than the Central population. Adult breeding sex ratio was male-biased in the Western population and female-biased in the Central population. Our results exclude high anthropogenic mortality as a cause for population decline in the West but support low reproductive success, which could result from sexually selected infanticide induced by a male-biased adult sex ratio or inbreeding depression. Using a stochastic demographic model to compute how many bears should be released to ensure viability, we show that the Western population could recover provided adequate numbers of new females are translocated.

Conclusions/Significance

We suggest that a translocation could take place, even if the decline has not yet been reversed, if the translocation itself removes the biological mechanisms behind the decline. In our case, the ultimate cause of low reproductive success remained unknown (infanticide or inbreeding), but our proposed translocation strategies should eliminate the proximate cause (low reproductive success) of the decline and ensure population recovery and viability.     

Land tenure shapes black bear density and abundance on a multi‐use landscape

Global biodiversity is decreasing rapidly. Parks and protected lands, while designed to conserve wildlife, often cannot provide the habitat protection needed for wide‐ranging animals such as the American black bear (Ursus americanus). Conversely, private lands are often working landscapes (e.g., farming) that have high human footprints relative to protected lands. In southwestern Alberta, road densities are highest on private lands and black bears can be hunted year‐round. On protected lands, road densities are lowest, and hunting is prohibited. On public lands under the jurisdiction of the provincial government (Crown lands), seasonal hunting is permitted. Population estimates are needed to calculate sustainable harvest levels and to monitor population trends. In our study area, there has never been a robust estimate of black bear density and spatial drivers of black bear density are poorly understood. We used non‐invasive genetic sampling and indices of habitat productivity and human disturbance to estimate density and abundance for male and female black bears in 2013 and 2014 using two methods: spatially explicit capture–recapture (SECR) and resource‐selection functions (RSF). Land tenure best explained spatial variation in black bear density. Black bear densities for females and males were highest on parkland and lowest on Crown lands. Sex ratios were female‐biased on private lands, likely a result of lower harvests and movement of females out of areas with high male density. Synthesis and application: Both SECR and RSF methods clearly indicate spatial structuring of black bear density, with a strong influence based on how lands are managed. Land tenure influences the distribution of available foods and risk from humans. We emphasize the need for improved harvest reporting, particularly for non‐licensed hunting on private land, to estimate the extent of black bear harvest mortality.