Seasonality selects for more acutely virulent parasites when virulence is density dependent

Host condition is often likely to influence parasite virulence. Furthermore, condition may often be correlated with host density, and therefore, it is important to understand the role of density-dependent virulence (DDV). We examine the consequences of DDV to the evolution of parasites in both seasonal and non-seasonal environments. In particular, we consider seasonality in host birth rate that results in a fluctuating host density and therefore a variable virulence. We show that parasites are selected for lower exploitation, and therefore lower transmission and virulence as the strength of DDV increases without seasonality. This is an important insight from our models; DDV has the opposite effect on the evolution of parasites to that of higher baseline mortality. Our key result is that although seasonality does not affect the evolution of virulence in classical models, with DDV parasites in seasonal environments are predicted to evolve to be more acute. This suggests that in more seasonal environments wildlife disease is likely to be more rather than less virulent if DDV is widespread.     

Evolution of airborne infectious diseases according to changes in characteristics of the host population

The authors predicted evolutionary changes in airborne infectious diseases according to changes in the characteristics of the host population. The predictions were based upon a mathematical model of infectious diseases and the validity of the predictions was verified against the history of man and pathogens. The feature of this model is that it involves a density of pathogens in the environment as an additional variable which can be regarded as more suitable to airborne infectious diseases. In spite of this modification, this study reached a similar conclusion to the threshold density theory: that is, susceptible host density in the absence of the pathogen must be larger than that in the presence of the pathogen, for the pathogen to be persistent. Moreover the authors concluded that one type of pathogen cannot be replaced by another type of pathogen as long as the susceptible host density of the former type is the mininum one. The predictions were considered to be valid for a wide range of infectous diseases. Making use of these principles, the authors predicted that the variety of infectious diseases should increase as host density increases and that pathogens should evolve to be less virulent as the host life-span increases. The finalidea discussed is whether or nor the history of man and pathogen can be verified by the predictions.     

Parasite transmission modes and the evolution of virulence

A mathematical model is presented that explores the relationship between transmission patterns and the evolution of virulence for horizontally transmitted parasites when only a single parasite strain can infect each host. The model is constructed by decomposing parasite transmission into two processes, the rate of contact between hosts and the probability of transmission per contact. These transmission rate components, as well as the total parasite mortality rate, are allowed to vary over the course of an infection. A general evolutionarily stable condition is presented that partitions the effects of virulence on parasite fitness into three components: fecundity benefits, mortality costs, and morbidity costs. This extension of previous theory allows us to explore the evolutionary consequences of a variety of transmission patterns. I then focus attention on a special case in which the parasite density remains approximately constant during an infection, and I demonstrate two important ways in which transmission modes can affect virulence evolution: by imposing different morbidity costs on the parasite and by altering the scheduling of parasite reproduction during an infection. Both are illustrated with examples, including one that examines the hypothesis that vector-borne parasites should be more virulent than non-vector-borne parasites (Ewald 1994). The validity of this hypothesis depends upon the way in which these two effects interact, and it need not hold in general.     

Evolution of unstable and stable biparental care

Evolutionarily stable strategy models suggest that biparentalcare will be stable when parents partially compensate for changesin care by the other parent. Previous work has emphasized therelationship between parental expenditure and the current componentof fitness (e. g., offspring survival and fecundity) in causingpartial compensation. This study shows that partial compensationdepends critically on the effect of current parental expenditureon a parent's future fitness (e. g., survival to and fecundityin subsequent breeding seasons). Partial compensation is favoredand biparental care is stable when future fitness is a concave-downfunction of expenditure (i. e., each increment of expenditureis more costly than the previous). However, when future fitnessis a convex-down function of expenditure (i. e., each incrementof expenditure is less costly) biparental care is unstable.(BehavEcol 7: 490–493(1996)]     

Evolution of the distribution of dispersal distance under distance‐dependent cost of dispersal

Abstract We analyse the evolution of the distribution of dispersal distances in a stable and homogeneous environment in one‐ and two‐dimensional habitats. In this model, dispersal evolves to avoid the competition between relatives although some cost might be associated with this behaviour. The evolutionarily stable dispersal distribution is characterized by an equilibration of the fitness gains among all the different dispersal distances. This cost‐benefit argument has heuristic value and facilitates the comprehension of results obtained numerically. In particular, it explains why some minimal or maximal probability of dispersal may evolve at intermediate distances when the cost of dispersal function is an increasing function of distance. We also show that kin selection may favour long range dispersal even if the survival cost of dispersal is very high, provided the survival probability does not vanish at long distances.     

Evolution of kleptoparasitism as a war of attrition

Previous models of kleptoparasitism (resource stealing) assume that contests over resource items are of fixed duration. Here we suggest that such contests will often be well represented as a war of attrition, with the winner being the individual who is prepared to contest for the longer time. Given that time spent in contests cannot be used to search for other resource items, we provide an analytical expression for the evolutionarily stable distribution of contest times. This can be used to investigate the circumstances under which we would expect kleptoparasitism to evolve. In particular, we focus on situations where searching for conspecifics to kleptoparasitize can only be achieved at a cost of reduced resource discovery by other means; under such circumstances we show that kleptoparasitism is not evolutionarily stable.     

The evolution of dispersal in a two-patch system: some consequences of differences between migrants and residents

We investigate how age-structure and differences in certain demographic traits between residents and immigrants of a single species act to determine the evolutionarily stable dispersal strategy in a two-patch environment that is heterogeneous in space but constant in time. These two factors have been neglected in previous models of the evolution of dispersal, which generally consider organisms with very simple life-cycles and assume that, whatever their origin, individuals in a given habitat have the same bio-demographic characteristics. However, there is increasing empirical evidence that dispersing individuals have different demographic properties from phylopatric ones. We develop a matrix model in which recruitment depends on local population densities. We assume that dispersal entails a proportional cost to immigrant fecundity, which can be compensated by differences in survival rates between immigrants and residents. The evolutionarily stable strategies (ESS) for dispersal are identified using a combination of analytical expressions and numerical simulations. Our results show that philopatry is selected (1) when dispersal rates do not vary in space, (2) when the metapopulation is a source-sink system and (3) when dispersal rates vary in space (asymmetric dispersal) and immigrants do not compensate for their reduced fecundity. We observe that non-zero asymmetric dispersal rates may be evolutionarily stable when (1) immigrants and residents are demographically alike and (2) immigrants compensate totally for their reduced fecundity through an increase in adult survival. Under these conditions, we find that the ESS occurs when the fitnesses at equilibrium in the two habitats, measured in our model by the realized reproductive rates, are each equal to unity. A comparison with previous studies suggests a unifying rule for the evolution of dispersal: the dispersal rates which permit the spatial homogenization of fitnesses are ESSs. This condition provides new insight into the evolutionary stability of source-sink systems. It also supports the hypothesis that immigrants have adapted demographic strategies, rather than the hypothesis that dispersal is costly and immigrants are at a disavantage compared with residents.     

Evolution of parasite virulence when host responses cause disease

The trade-off hypothesis of virulence evolution rests on the assumption that infection-induced mortality is a consequence of host exploitation by parasites. This hypothesis lies at the heart of many empirical and theoretical studies of virulence evolution, despite growing evidence that infection-induced mortality is very often a by-product of host immune responses. We extend the theoretical framework of the trade-off hypothesis to incorporate such immunopathology and explore how this detrimental aspect of host defence mechanisms affects the evolution of pathogen exploitation and hence infection-induced mortality. We argue that there are qualitatively different ways in which immunopathology can arise and suggest ways in which empirical studies can tease apart these effects. We show that immunopathology can cause infection-induced mortality to increase or decrease as a result of pathogen evolution, depending on how it covaries with pathogen exploitation strategies and with parasite killing by hosts. Immunopathology is thus an important determinant of whether public and animal health programmes will drive evolution in a clinically beneficial or detrimental direction. Immunopathology complicates our understanding of disease evolution, but can nevertheless be readily accounted for within the framework of the trade-off hypothesis.     

Bet hedging or not? A guide to proper classification of microbial survival strategies

Bacteria have developed an impressive ability to survive and propagate in highly diverse and changing environments by evolving phenotypic heterogeneity. Phenotypic heterogeneity ensures that a subpopulation is well prepared for environmental changes. The expression bet hedging is commonly (but often incorrectly) used by molecular biologists to describe any observed phenotypic heterogeneity. In evolutionary biology, however, bet hedging denotes a risk-spreading strategy displayed by isogenic populations that evolved in unpredictably changing environments. Opposed to other survival strategies, bet hedging evolves because the selection environment changes and favours different phenotypes at different times. Consequently, in bet hedging populations all phenotypes perform differently well at any time, depending on the selection pressures present. Moreover, bet hedging is the only strategy in which temporal variance of offspring numbers per individual is minimized. Our paper aims to provide a guide for the correct use of the term bet hedging in molecular biology.     

Evolution of virulence in a heterogeneous host population

Abstract.— There is a large body of theoretical studies that investigate factors that affect the evolution of virulence, that is parasite-induced host mortality. In these studies the host population is assumed to be genetically homogeneous. However, many parasites have a broad range of host types they infect, and trade-offs between the parasite virulence in different host types may exist. The aim of this paper is to study the effect of host heterogeneity on the evolution of parasite virulence. By analyzing a simple model that describes the replication of different parasite strains in a population of two different host types, we determine the optimal level of virulence in both host types and find the conditions under which strains that specialize in one host type dominate the parasite population. Furthermore, we show that intrahost evolution of the parasite during an infection may lead to stable polymorphisms and could introduce evolutionary branching in the parasite population.     

Higher disease prevalence can induce greater sociality: a game theoretic coevolutionary model

There is growing evidence that communicable diseases constitute a strong selective force on the evolution of social systems. It has been suggested that infectious diseases may determine upper limits of host sociality by, for example, inducing territoriality or early juvenile dispersal. Here we use game theory to model the evolution of host sociality in the context of communicable diseases. Our model is then augmented with the evolution of virulence to determine coevolutionarily stable strategies of host sociality and pathogen virulence. In contrast to a controversial hypothesis by Ewald (1994), our analysis indicates that pathogens may become more virulent when contact rates are low, and their prevalence can ultimately induce greater sociality.     

Evolutionary syndromes linking dispersal and mating system: the effect of autocorrelation in pollination conditions

Self-fertilization is classically thought to be associated with propagule dispersal because self-fertilization is a boon to colonizers entering environments devoid of pollinators or potential mates. Yet, it has been theoretically shown that random fluctuations in pollination conditions select for the opposite association of traits. In nature, however, various ecological factors may deviate from random variations, and thus create temporal correlation in pollination conditions. Here, we develop a model to assess the effects of pollination condition autocorrelation on the joint evolution of dispersal and self-fertilization. Basically, two syndromes are found: dispersing outcrossers and nondispersing (partial) selfers. Importantly, (1) selfers are never associated with dispersal, whereas complete outcrossers are, and (2) the disperser/outcrosser syndrome is favored (resp. disfavored) by negative (resp. positive) autocorrelation in pollination conditions. Our results suggest that observed dispersal/mating system syndromes may depend heavily on the regime of pollination condition fluctuations. We also point out potential negative evolutionary effects of anthropic management of the environment on outcrossing species.     

Fire-Stimulated Flowering: A Review and Look to the Future

The literature on fire-stimulated flowering is reviewed in terms of post-fire flowering patterns, proximal ultimate factors that affect flowering of plants post-fire, as well as application of evolutionary theory and development of evolutionary models in relation to fire-stimulated flowering. Consideration is given to the concepts involved, available empirical information, and areas that warrant further research. Understanding the factors responsible for fire-stimulated flowering is limited. Studies suggest factors involved, but confounding of variables prevents their separation. Experiments evaluate different factors, but there have been few such studies and little consideration regarding soil attributes, synergistic effects of multiple factors, and large-scale factors such as herbivory, florivory, seed dispersal, and pollination. Understanding the adaptive nature, and hence evolution, of fire-stimulated flowering is poor. Prevalence of particular fire-related responses has been related to geographical and other patterns, with deduction of adaptive nature of plant responses to fire and factors driving evolution of these responses. However, confounding of factors hinders this approach and can lead to disagreement between researchers. A better approach would be to hypothesize that evolution has resulted in plant responses to fire that are Evolutionarily Stable Strategies and to develop consequent mathematical models for such evolution, leading to predictions and tests. However, this approach requires quantitative assessment of responses to fire-related factors and influences of such responses on plant fitness, and so far few such assessments exist. This poor state of knowledge regarding plants with fire-stimulated flowering means that we cannot easily replace or enhance fire for managing species with fire-stimulated flowering, as sometimes necessary, and it also restricts their commercial cultivation. Experimental evaluation of plant responses to fire and development of evolutionary models is required. Our knowledge of the factors that trigger post-fire flowering by re-sprouting plant species remains poor, and so we cannot incorporate relationships between them and plant fitness into mathematical models of plant evolution.     

Evolution of host resistance and trade‐offs between virulence and transmission potential in an obligately killing parasite

Standard epidemiological theory predicts that parasites, which continuously release propagules during infection, face a trade‐off between virulence and transmission. However, little is known how host resistance and parasite virulence change during coevolution with obligate killers. To address this question we have set up a coevolution experiment evolving Nosema whitei on eight distinct lines of Tribolium castaneum. After 11 generations we conducted a time‐shift experiment infecting both the coevolved and the replicate control host lines with the original parasite source, and coevolved parasites from generation 8 and 11. We found higher survival in the coevolved host lines than in the matching control lines. In the parasite populations, virulence measured as host mortality decreased during coevolution, while sporeload stayed constant. Both patterns are compatible with adaptive evolution by selection for resistance in the host and by trade‐offs between virulence and transmission potential in the parasite.     

Determining the optimal developmental route of Strongyloides ratti: an evolutionarily stable strategy approach

Understanding the processes that drive parasite evolution is crucial to the development of management programs that sustain long-term, effective control of infectious disease in the face of parasite adaptation. Here we present a novel evolutionarily stable strategy (ESS) model of the developmental decisions of a nematode parasite, Strongyloides ratti. The genus Strongyloides exhibits an unusual developmental plasticity such that progeny from an individual may either develop via a direct (homogonic) route, where the developing larvae are infective to new hosts, or an indirect (heterogonic) route, where the larvae develop into free-living, dioecious adults that undergo at least one bout of sexual reproduction outside the host, before producing offspring that develop into infective larvae. The model correctly predicts a number of observed features of the parasite's behavior and shows that this plasticity may be adaptive such that pure homogonic development, pure heterogonic development, or a mixed strategy may be optimal depending on the prevailing environmental conditions, both within and outside the host. Importantly, our results depend only on the benefits of an extra round of reproduction in the environment external to the host and not on benefits to sexual reproduction through the purging of deleterious mutation or the generation of novel, favorable genotypes. The ESS framework presented here provides a powerful, general approach to predict how macroparasites, the agents of many of the world's most important infectious diseases, will evolve in response to the various selection pressures imposed by different control regimes in the future.     

Evolutionarily stable strategies of migration in heterogeneous environments

By means of a simulation model we are showing that the rates of migration can be related to avoidance of competition between relatives, especially in clonal organisms. This could result in a strong selective pressure for migration, even at a high cost. In addition, if the habitat is fragmented, migration can strongly affect local dynamics and result in a dramatic decrease of the densities in some places. In parthenogenetically reproducing organisms like aphids, the level of relatedness in local populations is expected to be very high and therefore they can serve as a good model group for testing these hypotheses. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Evolutionary stability of ideal free nonlocal dispersal

We study the evolutionary stability of nonlocal dispersal strategies that can produce ideal free population distributions, that is, distributions where all individuals have equal fitness and there is no net movement of individuals at equilibrium. We find that the property of producing ideal free distributions is necessary and often sufficient for evolutionary stability. Our results extend those already developed for discrete diffusion models on finite patch networks to the case of nonlocal dispersal models based on integrodifferential equations. The analysis is based on the use of comparison methods and the construction of sub- and supersolutions.     

Modelling the adaptive dynamics of traits involved in inter- and intraspecific interactions: An assessment of three methods

In recent years, three related methods have been used to model the phenotypic dynamics of traits under the influence of natural selection. The first is based on an approximation to quantitative genetic recursion equations for sexual populations. The second is based on evolution in asexual lineages with mutation-generated variation. The third method finds an evolutionarily stable set of phenotypes for species characterized by a given set of fitness functions, assuming that the mode of reproduction places no constraints on the number of distinct types that can be maintained in the population. The three methods share the property that the rate of change of a trait within a homogeneous population is approximately proportional to the individual fitness gradient. The methods differ in assumptions about the potential magnitude of phenotypic differences in mutant forms, and in their assumptions about the probability that invasion or speciation occurs when a species has a stable, yet invadable phenotype. Determining the range of applicability of the different methods is important for assessing the validity of optimization methods in predicting the evolutionary outcome of ecological interactions. Methods based on quantitative genetic models predict that fitness minimizing traits will often be evolutionarily stable over significant time periods, while other approaches suggest this is likely to be rare. A more detailed study of cases of disruptive selection might reveal whether fitness-minimizing traits occur frequently in natural communities.     

On several conjectures from evolution of dispersal

We address several conjectures raised in Cantrell et al. [Evolution of dispersal and ideal free distribution, Math. Biosci. Eng. 7 (2010), pp. 17–36 [9 Cantrell, R. S., Cosner, C. and Lou, Y. 2010. Evolution of dispersal and ideal free distribution. Math. Biosci. Eng., 7: 17–36. [Crossref], [PubMed], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]]] concerning the dynamics of a diffusion–advection–competition model for two competing species. A conditional dispersal strategy, which results in the ideal free distribution of a single population at equilibrium, was found in Cantrell et al. [9 Cantrell, R. S., Cosner, C. and Lou, Y. 2010. Evolution of dispersal and ideal free distribution. Math. Biosci. Eng., 7: 17–36. [Crossref], [PubMed], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]]. It was shown in [9 Cantrell, R. S., Cosner, C. and Lou, Y. 2010. Evolution of dispersal and ideal free distribution. Math. Biosci. Eng., 7: 17–36. [Crossref], [PubMed], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]] that this special dispersal strategy is a local evolutionarily stable strategy (ESS) when the random diffusion rates of the two species are equal, and here we show that it is a global ESS for arbitrary random diffusion rates. The conditions in [9 Cantrell, R. S., Cosner, C. and Lou, Y. 2010. Evolution of dispersal and ideal free distribution. Math. Biosci. Eng., 7: 17–36. [Crossref], [PubMed], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]] for the coexistence of two species are substantially improved. Finally, we show that this special dispersal strategy is not globally convergent stable for certain resource functions, in contrast with the result from [9 Cantrell, R. S., Cosner, C. and Lou, Y. 2010. Evolution of dispersal and ideal free distribution. Math. Biosci. Eng., 7: 17–36. [Crossref], [PubMed], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]], which roughly says that this dispersal strategy is globally convergent stable for any monotone resource function.