It's about time: the temporal dynamics of phenotypic selection in the wild

Selection is a central process in nature. Although our understanding of the strength and form of selection has increased, a general understanding of the temporal dynamics of selection in nature is lacking. Here, we assembled a database of temporal replicates of selection from studies of wild populations to synthesize what we do (and do not) know about the temporal dynamics of selection. Our database contains 5519 estimates of selection from 89 studies, including estimates of both direct and indirect selection as well as linear and nonlinear selection. Morphological traits and studies focused on vertebrates were well-represented, with other traits and taxonomic groups less well-represented. Overall, three major features characterize the temporal dynamics of selection. First, the strength of selection often varies considerably from year to year, although random sampling error of selection coefficients may impose bias in estimates of the magnitude of such variation. Second, changes in the direction of selection are frequent. Third, changes in the form of selection are likely common, but harder to quantify. Although few studies have identified causal mechanisms underlying temporal variation in the strength, direction and form of selection, variation in environmental conditions driven by climatic fluctuations appear to be common and important.     

Evolution in response to climate change: In pursuit of the missing evidence

Climate change is imposing intensified and novel selection pressures on organisms by altering abiotic and biotic environmental conditions on Earth, but studies demonstrating genetic adaptation to climate change mediated selection are still scarce. Evidence is accumulating to indicate that both genetic and ecological constrains may often limit populations' abilities to adapt to large scale effects of climate warming. These constraints may predispose many organisms to respond to climate change with range shifts and phenotypic plasticity, rather than through evolutionary adaptation. In general, broad conclusions about the role of evolutionary adaptation in mitigating climate change induced fitness loss in the wild are as yet difficult to make. Editor's suggested further reading in BioEssays: How will fish that evolved at constant sub‐zero temperatures cope with global warming? Notothenioids as a case study Abstract     

Goals and hurdles for a successful implementation of genomic selection in breeding programme for selected annual and perennial crops

Genomic Selection is an important topic in quantitative genetics and breeding. Not only does it allow the full use of current molecular genetic technologies, it stimulates also the development of new methods and models. Genomic selection, if fully implemented in commercial farming, should have a major impact on the productivity of various agricultural systems. But suggested approaches need to be applicable in commercial breeding populations. Many of the published research studies focus on methodologies. We conclude from the reviewed publications, that a stronger focus on strategies for the implementation of genomic selection in advanced breeding lines, introduction of new varieties, hybrids or multi-line crosses is needed. Efforts to find solutions for a better prediction and integration of environmental influences need to continue within applied breeding schemes. Goals of the implementation of genomic selection into crop breeding should be carefully defined and crop breeders in the private sector will play a substantial part in the decision-making process. However, the lack of published results from studies within, or in collaboration with, private companies diminishes the knowledge on the status of genomic selection within applied breeding programmes. Studies on the implementation of genomic selection in plant breeding need to evaluate models and methods with an enhanced emphasis on population-specific requirements and production environments. Adaptation of methods to breeding schemes or changes to breeding programmes for a better integration of genomic selection strategies are needed across species. More openness with a continuous exchange will contribute to successes.     

Renewal ecology: conservation for the Anthropocene

The global scale and rapidity of environmental change is challenging ecologists to reimagine their theoretical principles and management practices. Increasingly, historical ecological conditions are inadequate targets for restoration ecology, geographically circumscribed nature reserves are incapable of protecting all biodiversity, and the precautionary principle applied to management interventions no longer ensures avoidance of ecological harm. In addition, human responses to global environmental changes, such as migration, building of protective infrastructures, and land use change, are having their own negative environmental impacts. We use examples from wildlands, urban, and degraded environments, as well as marine and freshwater ecosystems, to show that human adaptation responses to rapid ecological change can be explicitly designed to benefit biodiversity. This approach, which we call “renewal ecology,” is based on acceptance that environmental change will have transformative effects on coupled human and natural systems and recognizes the need to harmonize biodiversity with human infrastructure, for the benefit of both.     

Introduction. Antarctic ecology: from genes to ecosystems. Part 2. Evolution, diversity and functional ecology

The Antarctic biota has evolved over the last 100 million years in increasingly isolated and cold conditions. As a result, Antarctic species, from micro-organisms to vertebrates, have adapted to life at extremely low temperatures, including changes in the genome, physiology and ecological traits such as life history. Coupled with cycles of glaciation that have promoted speciation in the Antarctic, this has led to a unique biota in terms of biogeography, patterns of species distribution and endemism. Specialization in the Antarctic biota has led to trade-offs in many ecologically important functions and Antarctic species may have a limited capacity to adapt to present climate change. These include the direct effects of changes in environmental parameters and indirect effects of increased competition and predation resulting from altered life histories of Antarctic species and the impacts of invasive species. Ultimately, climate change may alter the responses of Antarctic ecosystems to harvesting from humans. The unique adaptations of Antarctic species mean that they provide unique models of molecular evolution in natural populations. The simplicity of Antarctic communities, especially from terrestrial systems, makes them ideal to investigate the ecological implications of climate change, which are difficult to identify in more complex systems.     

Social traits,social networks and evolutionary biology

The social environment is both an important agent of selection for most organisms, and an emergent property of their interactions. As an aggregation of interactions among members of a population, the social environment is a product of many sets of relationships and so can be represented as a network or matrix. Social network analysis in animals has focused on why these networks possess the structure they do, and whether individuals’ network traits, representing some aspect of their social phenotype, relate to their fitness. Meanwhile, quantitative geneticists have demonstrated that traits expressed in a social context can depend on the phenotypes and genotypes of interacting partners, leading to influences of the social environment on the traits and fitness of individuals and the evolutionary trajectories of populations. Therefore, both fields are investigating similar topics, yet have arrived at these points relatively independently. We review how these approaches are diverged, and yet how they retain clear parallelism and so strong potential for complementarity. This demonstrates that, despite separate bodies of theory, advances in one might inform the other. Techniques in network analysis for quantifying social phenotypes, and for identifying community structure, should be useful for those studying the relationship between individual behaviour and group‐level phenotypes. Entering social association matrices into quantitative genetic models may also reduce bias in heritability estimates, and allow the estimation of the influence of social connectedness on trait expression. Current methods for measuring natural selection in a social context explicitly account for the fact that a trait is not necessarily the property of a single individual, something the network approaches have not yet considered when relating network metrics to individual fitness. Harnessing evolutionary models that consider traits affected by genes in other individuals (i.e. indirect genetic effects) provides the potential to understand how entire networks of social interactions in populations influence phenotypes and predict how these traits may evolve. By theoretical integration of social network analysis and quantitative genetics, we hope to identify areas of compatibility and incompatibility and to direct research efforts towards the most promising areas. Continuing this synthesis could provide important insights into the evolution of traits expressed in a social context and the evolutionary consequences of complex and nuanced social phenotypes.     

Predictive ecology: systems approaches

The world is experiencing significant, largely anthropogenically induced, environmental change. This will impact on the biological world and we need to be able to forecast its effects. In order to produce such forecasts, ecology needs to become more predictive--to develop the ability to understand how ecological systems will behave in future, changed, conditions. Further development of process-based models is required to allow such predictions to be made. Critical to the development of such models will be achieving a balance between the brute-force approach that naively attempts to include everything, and over simplification that throws out important heterogeneities at various levels. Central to this will be the recognition that individuals are the elementary particles of all ecological systems. As such it will be necessary to understand the effect of evolution on ecological systems, particularly when exposed to environmental change. However, insights from evolutionary biology will help the development of models even when data may be sparse. Process-based models are more common, and are used for forecasting, in other disciplines, e.g. climatology and molecular systems biology. Tools and techniques developed in these endeavours can be appropriated into ecological modelling, but it will also be necessary to develop the science of ecoinformatics along with approaches specific to ecological problems. The impetus for this effort should come from the demand coming from society to understand the effects of environmental change on the world and what might be performed to mitigate or adapt to them.     

Genomics of natural history collections for understanding evolution in the wild

A long‐standing question in biology is how organisms change through time and space in response to their environment. This knowledge is of particular relevance to predicting how organisms might respond to future environmental changes caused by human‐induced global change. Usually researchers make inferences about past events based on an understanding of current static genetic patterns, but these are limited in their capacity to inform on underlying past processes. Natural history collections (NHCs) represent a unique and critical source of information to provide temporally deep and spatially broad time‐series of samples. By using NHC samples, researchers can directly observe genetic changes over time and space and link those changes with specific ecological/evolutionary events. Until recently, such genetic studies were hindered by the intrinsic challenges of NHC samples (i.e. low yield of highly fragmented DNA). However, recent methodological and technological developments have revolutionized the possibilities in the novel field of NHC genomics. In this Special Feature, we compile a range of studies spanning from methodological aspects to particular case studies which demonstrate the enormous potential of NHC samples for accessing large genomic data sets from the past to advance our knowledge on how populations and species respond to global change at multiple spatial–temporal scales. We also highlight possible limitations, recommendations and a few opportunities for future researchers aiming to study NHC genomics.     

Evolution of adaptive phenotypic traits without positive Darwinian selection

Recent evidence suggests the frequent occurrence of a simple non-Darwinian (but non-Lamarckian) model for the evolution of adaptive phenotypic traits, here entitled the plasticity-relaxation-mutation (PRM) mechanism. This mechanism involves ancestral phenotypic plasticity followed by specialization in one alternative environment and thus the permanent expression of one alternative phenotype. Once this specialization occurs, purifying selection on the molecular basis of other phenotypes is relaxed. Finally, mutations that permanently eliminate the pathways leading to alternative phenotypes can be fixed by genetic drift. Although the generality of the PRM mechanism is at present unknown, I discuss evidence for its widespread occurrence, including the prevalence of exaptations in evolution, evidence that phenotypic plasticity has preceded adaptation in a number of taxa and evidence that adaptive traits have resulted from loss of alternative developmental pathways. The PRM mechanism can easily explain cases of explosive adaptive radiation, as well as recently reported cases of apparent adaptive evolution over ecological time.     

Impact of naturally spawning captive-bred Atlantic salmon on wild populations: depressed recruitment and increased risk of climate-mediated extinction

The assessment report of the 4th International Panel on Climate Change confirms that global warming is strongly affecting biological systems and that 20–30% of species risk extinction from projected future increases in temperature. It is essential that any measures taken to conserve individual species and their constituent populations against climate-mediated declines are appropriate. The release of captive bred animals to augment wild populations is a widespread management strategy for many species but has proven controversial. Using a regression model based on a 37-year study of wild and sea ranched Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) spawning together in the wild, we show that the escape of captive bred animals into the wild can substantially depress recruitment and more specifically disrupt the capacity of natural populations to adapt to higher winter water temperatures associated with climate variability. We speculate the mechanisms underlying this seasonal response and suggest that an explanation based on bio-energetic processes with physiological responses synchronized by photoperiod is plausible. Furthermore, we predict, by running the model forward using projected future climate scenarios, that these cultured fish substantially increase the risk of extinction for the studied population within 20 generations. In contrast, we show that positive outcomes to climate change are possible if captive bred animals are prevented from breeding in the wild. Rather than imposing an additional genetic load on wild populations by releasing maladapted captive bred animals, we propose that conservation efforts should focus on optimizing conditions for adaptation to occur by reducing exploitation and protecting critical habitats. Our findings are likely to hold true for most poikilothermic species where captive breeding programmes are used in population management.     

Evolution of thermal performance curves: A meta-analysis of selection experiments

Temperatures are increasing due to global changes, putting biodiversity at risk. Organisms are faced with a limited set of options to cope with this situation: adapt, disperse or die. We here focus on the first possibility, more specifically, on evolutionary adaptations to temperature. Ectotherms are usually characterized by a hump-shaped relationship between fitness and temperature, a non-linear reaction norm that is referred to as thermal performance curve (TPC). To understand and predict impacts of global change, we need to know whether and how such TPCs evolve. Therefore, we performed a systematic literature search and a statistical meta-analysis focusing on experimental evolution and artificial selection studies. This focus allows us to directly quantify relative fitness responses to temperature selection by calculating fitness differences between TPCs from ancestral and derived populations after thermal selection. Out of 7561 publications screened, we found 47 studies corresponding to our search criteria representing taxa across the tree of life, from bacteria, to plants and vertebrates. We show that, independently of species identity, the studies we found report a positive response to temperature selection. Considering entire TPC shapes, adaptation to higher temperatures traded off with fitness at lower temperatures, leading to niche shifts. Effects were generally stronger in unicellular organisms. By contrast, we do not find statistical support for the often discussed “Hotter is better” hypothesis. While our meta-analysis provides evidence for adaptive potential of TPCs across organisms, it also highlights that more experimental work is needed, especially for under-represented taxa, such as plants and non-model systems.     

Toward a synthetic understanding of the role of phenology in ecology and evolution

Phenology affects nearly all aspects of ecology and evolution. Virtually all biological phenomena—from individual physiology to interspecific relationships to global nutrient fluxes—have annual cycles and are influenced by the timing of abiotic events. Recent years have seen a surge of interest in this topic, as an increasing number of studies document phenological responses to climate change. Much recent research has addressed the genetic controls on phenology, modelling techniques and ecosystem-level and evolutionary consequences of phenological change. To date, however, these efforts have tended to proceed independently. Here, we bring together some of these disparate lines of inquiry to clarify vocabulary, facilitate comparisons among habitat types and promote the integration of ideas and methodologies across different disciplines and scales. We discuss the relationship between phenology and life history, the distinction between organismal- and population-level perspectives on phenology and the influence of phenology on evolutionary processes, communities and ecosystems. Future work should focus on linking ecological and physiological aspects of phenology, understanding the demographic effects of phenological change and explicitly accounting for seasonality and phenology in forecasts of ecological and evolutionary responses to climate change.     

Pollination ecology and the possible impacts of environmental change in the Southwest Australian Biodiversity Hotspot

The Southwest Australian Biodiversity Hotspot contains an exceptionally diverse flora on an ancient, low-relief but edaphically diverse landscape. Since European colonization, the primary threat to the flora has been habitat clearance, though climate change is an impending threat. Here, we review (i) the ecology of nectarivores and biotic pollination systems in the region, (ii) the evidence that trends in pollination strategies are a consequence of characteristics of the landscape, and (iii) based on these discussions, provide predictions to be tested on the impacts of environmental change on pollination systems. The flora of southwestern Australia has an exceptionally high level of vertebrate pollination, providing the advantage of highly mobile, generalist pollinators. Nectarivorous invertebrates are primarily generalist foragers, though an increasing number of colletid bees are being recognized as being specialized at the level of plant family or more rarely genus. While generalist pollination strategies dominate among insect-pollinated plants, there are some cases of extreme specialization, most notably the multiple evolutions of sexual deception in the Orchidaceae. Preliminary data suggest that bird pollination confers an advantage of greater pollen movement and may represent a mechanism for minimizing inbreeding in naturally fragmented populations. The effects of future environmental change are predicted to result from a combination of the resilience of pollination guilds and changes in their foraging and dispersal behaviour.     

Climate change and the risks associated with delayed breeding in a tropical wild bird population

There is growing evidence of changes in the timing of important ecological events, such as flowering in plants and reproduction in animals, in response to climate change, with implications for population decline and biodiversity loss. Recent work has shown that the timing of breeding in wild birds is changing in response to climate change partly because individuals are remarkably flexible in their timing of breeding. Despite this work, our understanding of these processes in wild populations remains very limited and biased towards species from temperate regions. Here, we report the response to changing climate in a tropical wild bird population using a long-term dataset on a formerly critically endangered island endemic, the Mauritius kestrel. We show that the frequency of spring rainfall affects the timing of breeding, with birds breeding later in wetter springs. Delays in breeding have consequences in terms of reduced reproductive success as birds get exposed to risks associated with adverse climatic conditions later on in the breeding season, which reduce nesting success. These results, combined with the fact that frequency of spring rainfall has increased by about 60 per cent in our study area since 1962, imply that climate change is exposing birds to the stochastic risks of late reproduction by causing them to start breeding relatively late in the season.     

Long day plants and the response to global warming: rapid evolutionary change in day length sensitivity is possible in wild beet

Day length is a key factor in flowering induction in many plant species in a seasonal environment with flowering induction usually happening at shorter day lengths in lower latitudes. Now, the climate changes systematically at a considerable speed due to global warming. As a consequence, earlier flowering will be selected for in long day plants by favouring a lower threshold for day length sensitivity, on the condition of available genetic variability. Here, we show that there is considerable genetic variation for day length sensitivity in our study species, the seabeet Beta vulgaris subsp. maritima. In the northernmost natural populations without vernalization requirement, in southwest France, the necessary day length for flowering induction could be reduced by artificial selection in <10 generations from >13 h to <11 h, the latter value corresponding to populations in the Beta-species complex from Northern Africa and the eastern part of the Mediterranean tested under the same conditions. A quantitative genetic analysis provided evidence of a gradual change without detectable major genes. Additional experiments were carried out to separate the response to photoperiod from age and energy effects. A certain effect of energy availability has been found, whereas age effects could be excluded. These results indicate a considerable potential for evolutionary change in adjusting flowering time in a changing climate.     

Introduction. Integration of ecology and endocrinology in avian reproduction: a new synthesis

Birds are some of the most familiar organisms of global ecosystems. Changes in the visibility and abundance of birds are therefore excellent indicators of population and physiological responses to habitat changes and are a major focus for public concern about detrimental environmental changes. In order to understand how birds respond to these challenges, it is essential to determine how the environment affects reproduction under natural conditions. The continuum from environmental variables (cues) to reproductive life-history traits depends upon a cascade of neural and physiological processes that determine the extent and rate at which birds will be able to adapt to changes in their environment. For a full understanding of this ability to adapt, ecologists and endocrinologists need to collaborate and build a common framework. The objective of this theme issue is to bring together a series of papers addressing how evolutionary ecologists and endocrinologists can collaborate directly using avian reproduction as a model system. First, we address the need to integrate ecology and endocrinology and what benefits to biological knowledge will be gained. The papers collected in this issue represent a new synthesis of ecology and endocrinology as discussed in three E-BIRD workshops. The three main foci are trade-offs and constraints, maternal effects and individual variation. Authors within each group present ecological and endocrinological aspects of their topics and many go on to outline testable hypotheses. Finally, we discuss where the major problems remain and how this issue points out where these need collaborative efforts of ecologists and endocrinologists. Specific challenges are raised to future researchers to break through intellectual barriers and explore new frontiers. This framework of topics will ultimately apply to all taxa because the principles involved are universal and hopefully will have direct application to programmes integrating organisms and genes throughout biological sciences.     

Seedling-selection effects on morphological traits of mature plants in red clover

Knowledge of the correlation between juvenileand mature-plant traits is critical in determining the opportunities for early stage selection. The effects of early stage selection on mature-plant performance have rarely been quantified. This study was conducted to identify seedling traints in red clover (Trifolium pratense L.) that correlate to mature-plant traits and to evaluate the effect of seedling selection on forage yields and other mature-plant traits. The results showed that relationships between most seedlingand mature-plant traits were weak (r ranged from 0.170 to 0.239). Nevertheless, selecting the top 10% seedlings for petiole length, days from emergence to full expansion of the 4th leaf (D4LE), or leaves per seedling, produced a mature-plant population with higher individual plant dry weight (IPDW1) and higher annual yield in 1993 (Y93). Selection for leaves per seedling increased IPDW1 by 23.2%. Selection for petiole length and the smallest D4LE increased Y93 by 15.7% and 13.8%, respectively. Furthermore, substantial expected genetic gains were obtained for IPDW1 and Y93 when selecting for some seedling traits. We conclude that plants and families with low potential yield can be eliminated at the seedling stage in red clover. This will allow breeders to increase the number of superior plants to be field tested or to conduct a more rigorous evaluation of the selected plants. Among the five selection schemes tested for direct selection of mature-plant traits, mass selection produced the largest genetic gain.     

Allelic diversity for neutral markers retains a higher adaptive potential for quantitative traits than expected heterozygosity

The adaptive potential of a population depends on the amount of additive genetic variance for quantitative traits of evolutionary importance. This variance is a direct function of the expected frequency of heterozygotes for the loci which affect the trait (QTL). It has been argued, but not demonstrated experimentally, that long‐term response to selection is more dependent on QTL allelic diversity than on QTL heterozygosity. Conservation programmes, aimed at preserving this variation, usually rely on neutral markers rather than on quantitative traits for making decisions on management. Here, we address, both through simulation analyses and experimental studies with Drosophila melanogaster, the question of whether allelic diversity for neutral markers is a better indicator of a high adaptive potential than expected heterozygosity. In both experimental and simulation studies, we established synthetic populations for which either heterozygosity or allelic diversity was maximized using information from QTL (simulations) or unlinked neutral markers (simulations and experiment). The synthetic populations were selected for the quantitative trait to evaluate the evolutionary potential provided by the two optimization methods. Our results show that maximizing the number of alleles of a low number of markers implies higher responses to selection than maximizing their heterozygosity.