Invasive American Mink: Linking Pathogen Risk Between Domestic and Endangered Carnivores

Infectious diseases, in particular canine distemper virus (CDV), are an important threat to the viability of wild carnivore populations. CDV is thought to be transmitted by direct contact between individuals; therefore, the study of species interactions plays a pivotal role in understanding CDV transmission dynamics. However, CDV often appears to move between populations that are ecologically isolated, possibly through bridge hosts that interact with both species. This study investigated how an introduced species could alter multihost interactions and act as a bridge host in a novel carnivore assemblage of domestic dogs (Canis familiaris), invasive American mink (Neovison vison), and threatened river otters (Lontra provocax) in southern Chile. We found that rural dogs interact with mink near farms whereas in riparian habitats, minks and river otters shared the same latrines with both species visiting sites frequently within time intervals well within CDV environmental persistence. No interactions were observed between dogs and otters at either location. Both dog and mink populations were serologically positive for CDV, making the pathogen transfer risk to otters a conservation concern. Altogether, introduced mink in this ecosystem have the potential to act as bridge hosts between domestic dogs and endangered carnivores.     

Estimating the Potential Impact of Canine Distemper Virus on the Amur Tiger Population (Panthera tigris altaica) in Russia

Lethal infections with canine distemper virus (CDV) have recently been diagnosed in Amur tigers (Panthera tigris altaica), but long-term implications for the population are unknown. This study evaluates the potential impact of CDV on a key tiger population in Sikhote-Alin Biosphere Zapovednik (SABZ), and assesses how CDV might influence the extinction potential of other tiger populations of varying sizes. An individual-based stochastic, SIRD (susceptible-infected-recovered/dead) model was used to simulate infection through predation of infected domestic dogs, and/or wild carnivores, and direct tiger-to-tiger transmission. CDV prevalence and effective contact based on published and observed data was used to define plausible low- and high-risk infection scenarios. CDV infection increased the 50-year extinction probability of tigers in SABZ by 6.3% to 55.8% compared to a control population, depending on risk scenario. The most significant factors influencing model outcome were virus prevalence in the reservoir population(s) and its effective contact rate with tigers. Adjustment of the mortality rate had a proportional impact, while inclusion of epizootic infection waves had negligible additional impact. Small populations were found to be disproportionately vulnerable to extinction through CDV infection. The 50-year extinction risk in populations consisting of 25 individuals was 1.65 times greater when CDV was present than that of control populations. The effects of density dependence do not protect an endangered population from the impacts of a multi-host pathogen, such as CDV, where they coexist with an abundant reservoir presenting a persistent threat. Awareness of CDV is a critical component of a successful tiger conservation management policy.     

Transmission Patterns of Pinworms in Two Sympatric Congeneric Primate Species

Understanding pathogen transmission is essential to addressing the dynamics of infectious diseases in animal populations. Directly transmitted parasites spread in host populations via 1) contact with infected individuals and 2) contact with contaminated substrates. Although studies exist that support social or ranging effects on transmission, it is less clear how these factors interact. We test the hypothesis that a combination of social, ranging, diet, and intrinsic factors account for Trypanoxyuris minutus (pinworm) infections in sympatric howler species Alouatta palliata and A. pigra. We collected 211 howler fecal samples from 34 adults living in four groups, two of each species, in Tabasco (Mexico), and calculated pinworm prevalence and eggs per gram of feces (EPG). We followed each group for 80 h to determine ranging, diet, frequency of contact, and conspecific proximity. Prevalence of Trypanoxyuris minutus was high, with 82% of all individuals infected. Logistic modeling indicated that pinworm prevalence was positively associated with proximity and the proportion of group members contacted by focal individuals. Although EPG results should be interpreted cautiously owing to variable egg excretion, this index was also positively associated with proximity and the proportion of group members that were contacted, as well as with dietary diversity and use of non-tree foods. Neither intrinsic factors such as species and sex, nor group and population level variables, such as group and home range size, home range overlap, and intensity of range use, were significant predictors of pinworm infection. We conclude that both sociality and feeding behavior are key factors in infection dynamics of Trypanoxyuris minutus in sympatric Alouatta palliata and A. pigra, confirming that contact with infected conspecifics and contaminated substrates are important mechanisms for directly transmitted parasites.     

Spatial Heterogeneity,Host Movement and Mosquito-Borne Disease Transmission

Mosquito-borne diseases are a global health priority disproportionately affecting low-income populations in tropical and sub-tropical countries. These pathogens live in mosquitoes and hosts that interact in spatially heterogeneous environments where hosts move between regions of varying transmission intensity. Although there is increasing interest in the implications of spatial processes for mosquito-borne disease dynamics, most of our understanding derives from models that assume spatially homogeneous transmission. Spatial variation in contact rates can influence transmission and the risk of epidemics, yet the interaction between spatial heterogeneity and movement of hosts remains relatively unexplored. Here we explore, analytically and through numerical simulations, how human mobility connects spatially heterogeneous mosquito populations, thereby influencing disease persistence (determined by the basic reproduction number R ₀), prevalence and their relationship. We show that, when local transmission rates are highly heterogeneous, R ₀ declines asymptotically as human mobility increases, but infection prevalence peaks at low to intermediate rates of movement and decreases asymptotically after this peak. Movement can reduce heterogeneity in exposure to mosquito biting. As a result, if biting intensity is high but uneven, infection prevalence increases with mobility despite reductions in R ₀. This increase in prevalence decreases with further increase in mobility because individuals do not spend enough time in high transmission patches, hence decreasing the number of new infections and overall prevalence. These results provide a better basis for understanding the interplay between spatial transmission heterogeneity and human mobility, and their combined influence on prevalence and R ₀.     

Sickness behaviour acting as an evolutionary trap? Male house finches preferentially feed near diseased conspecifics

Host behaviour towards infectious conspecifics is a crucial yet overlooked component of pathogen dynamics. Selection is expected to favour individuals who can recognize and avoid infected conspecifics in order to reduce their own risk of infection. However, evidence is scarce and limited to species employing chemical cues. Here, we experimentally examine whether healthy captive house finches (Carpodacus mexicanus) preferentially forage near a same-sex, healthy conspecific versus one infected with the directly transmissible pathogen Mycoplasma gallisepticum (MG), which causes lethargy and visible conjunctivitis. Interestingly, male house finches strongly preferred feeding near diseased conspecifics, while females showed no preference. This sex difference appeared to be the result of lower aggression rates in diseased males, but not in females. The reduced aggression of diseased males may act as an ‘evolutionary trap’ by presenting a historically beneficial behavioural cue in the context of a new environment, which now includes a recently emerged, potentially fatal pathogen. Since MG can be directly transmitted during feeding, healthy males may inadvertently increase their risk of contracting MG. This behaviour is likely to significantly contribute to the continued persistence of MG epidemics in wild populations.     

Contact with domestic dogs increases pathogen exposure in endangered African wild dogs (Lycaon pictus)

Background

Infectious diseases have contributed to the decline and local extinction of several wildlife species, including African wild dogs (Lycaon pictus). Mitigating such disease threats is challenging, partly because uncertainty about disease dynamics makes it difficult to identify the best management approaches. Serious impacts on susceptible populations most frequently occur when generalist pathogens are maintained within populations of abundant (often domestic) “reservoir” hosts, and spill over into less abundant host species. If this is the case, disease control directed at the reservoir host might be most appropriate. However, pathogen transmission within threatened host populations may also be important, and may not be controllable by managing another host species.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We investigated interspecific and intraspecific transmission routes, by comparing African wild dogs'' exposure to six canine pathogens with behavioural measures of their opportunities for contact with domestic dogs and with other wild dogs. Domestic dog contact was associated with exposure to canine parvovirus, Ehrlichia canis, Neospora caninum and perhaps rabies virus, but not with exposure to canine distemper virus or canine coronavirus. Contact with other wild dogs appeared not to increase the risk of exposure to any of the pathogens.

Conclusions/Significance

These findings, combined with other data, suggest that management directed at domestic dogs might help to protect wild dog populations from rabies virus, but not from canine distemper virus. However, further analyses are needed to determine the management approaches – including no intervention – which are most appropriate for each pathogen.     

The dynamics of sexual contact networks: effects on disease spread and control

Sexually transmitted pathogens persist in populations despite the availability of biomedical interventions and knowledge of behavioural changes that would reduce individual-level risk. While behavioural risk factors are shared between many sexually transmitted infections, the prevalence of these diseases across different risk groups varies. Understanding this heterogeneity and identifying better control strategies depends on an improved understanding of the complex social contact networks over which pathogens spread. To date, most efforts to study the impact of sexual network structure on disease dynamics have focused on static networks. However, the interaction between the dynamics of partnership formation and dissolution and the dynamics of transmission plays a role, both in restricting the effective network accessible to the pathogen, and in modulating the transmission dynamics. We present a simple method to simulate dynamical networks of sexual partnerships. We inform the model using survey data on sexual attitudes and lifestyles, and investigate how the duration of infectiousness changes the effective contact network over which disease may spread. We then simulate several control strategies: screening, vaccination and behavioural interventions. Previous theory and research has advanced the importance of core groups for spread and control of STD. Our work is consistent with the importance of core groups, but extends this idea to consider how the duration of infectiousness associated with a particular pathogen interacts with host behaviours to define these high risk subpopulations. Characteristics of the parts of the network accessible to the pathogen, which represent the network structure of sexual contacts from the “point of view” of the pathogen, are substantially different from those of the network as a whole. The pathogen itself plays an important role in determining this effective network structure; specifically, we find that if the pathogen’s duration of infectiousness is short, infection is more concentrated in high-activity, high-concurrency individuals even when all other factors are held constant. Widespread screening programmes would be enhanced by follow-up interventions targeting higher-risk individuals, because screening shortens the expected duration of infectiousness and causes a greater relative decrease in prevalence among lower-activity than in higher-activity individuals. Even for pathogens with longer durations of infectiousness, our findings suggest that targeting vaccination and behavioural interventions towards high-activity individuals provides comparable benefits to population-wide interventions.     

Disease‐structured N‐mixture models: A practical guide to model disease dynamics using count data

Obtaining inferences on disease dynamics (e.g., host population size, pathogen prevalence, transmission rate, host survival probability) typically requires marking and tracking individuals over time. While multistate mark–recapture models can produce high‐quality inference, these techniques are difficult to employ at large spatial and long temporal scales or in small remnant host populations decimated by virulent pathogens, where low recapture rates may preclude the use of mark–recapture techniques. Recently developed N‐mixture models offer a statistical framework for estimating wildlife disease dynamics from count data. N‐mixture models are a type of state‐space model in which observation error is attributed to failing to detect some individuals when they are present (i.e., false negatives). The analysis approach uses repeated surveys of sites over a period of population closure to estimate detection probability. We review the challenges of modeling disease dynamics and describe how N‐mixture models can be used to estimate common metrics, including pathogen prevalence, transmission, and recovery rates while accounting for imperfect host and pathogen detection. We also offer a perspective on future research directions at the intersection of quantitative and disease ecology, including the estimation of false positives in pathogen presence, spatially explicit disease‐structured N‐mixture models, and the integration of other data types with count data to inform disease dynamics. Managers rely on accurate and precise estimates of disease dynamics to develop strategies to mitigate pathogen impacts on host populations. At a time when pathogens pose one of the greatest threats to biodiversity, statistical methods that lead to robust inferences on host populations are critically needed for rapid, rather than incremental, assessments of the impacts of emerging infectious diseases.     

Rabies Virus and Canine Distemper Virus in Wild and Domestic Carnivores in Northern Kenya: Are Domestic Dogs the Reservoir?

Rabies virus (RV) and canine distemper virus (CDV) can cause significant mortality in wild carnivore populations, and RV threatens human lives. We investigated serological patterns of exposure to CDV and RV in domestic dogs (Canis familiaris), African wild dogs (Lycaon pictus), black-backed jackals (Canis mesomelas), spotted hyenas (Crocuta crocuta), striped hyenas (Hyaena hyaena) and African lions (Panthera leo), over a 10-year period, in a Kenyan rangeland to assess the role domestic dogs may play in the transmission dynamics of these two important canid pathogens. Observed patterns of RV exposure suggested that repeated introduction, rather than maintenance, occurred in the wild carnivore species studied. However, RV appeared to have been maintained in domestic dogs: exposure was more likely in domestic dogs than in the wild carnivores; was detected consistently over time without variation among years; and was detected in juveniles (≤1-year-old) as well as adults (>1-year-old). We conclude that this domestic dog population could be a RV reservoir. By contrast, the absence of evidence of CDV exposure for each carnivore species examined in the study area, for specific years, suggested repeated introduction, rather than maintenance, and that CDV may require a larger reservoir population than RV. This reservoir could be a larger domestic dog population; another wildlife species; or a “metareservoir” consisting of multiple interconnected carnivore populations. Our findings suggest that RV risks to people and wild carnivores might be controlled by domestic dog vaccination, but that CDV control, if required, would need to target the species of concern.     

Estimating distemper virus dynamics among wolves and grizzly bears using serology and Bayesian state‐space models

Many parasites infect multiple hosts, but estimating the transmission across host species remains a key challenge in disease ecology. We investigated the within and across host species dynamics of canine distemper virus (CDV) in grizzly bears (Ursus arctos) and wolves (Canis lupus) of the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE). We hypothesized that grizzly bears may be more likely to be exposed to CDV during outbreaks in the wolf population because grizzly bears often displace wolves while scavenging carcasses. We used serological data collected from 1984 to 2014 in conjunction with Bayesian state‐space models to infer the temporal dynamics of CDV. These models accounted for the unknown timing of pathogen exposure, and we assessed how different testing thresholds and the potential for testing errors affected our conclusions. We identified three main CDV outbreaks (1999, 2005, and 2008) in wolves, which were more obvious when we used higher diagnostic thresholds to qualify as seropositive. There was some evidence for increased exposure rates in grizzly bears in 2005, but the magnitude of the wolf effect on bear exposures was poorly estimated and depended upon our prior distributions. Grizzly bears were exposed to CDV prior to wolf reintroduction and during time periods outside of known wolf outbreaks, thus wolves are only one of several potential routes for grizzly bear exposures. Our modeling approach accounts for several of the shortcomings of serological data and is applicable to many wildlife disease systems, but is most informative when testing intervals are short. CDV circulates in a wide range of carnivore species, but it remains unclear whether the disease persists locally within the GYE carnivore community or is periodically reintroduced from distant regions with larger host populations.     

Pathogen Exposure in Cattle at the Livestock-Wildlife Interface

Land use is an important driver of variation in human infectious disease risk, but less is known about how land use affects disease risk in livestock. To understand how land use is associated with disease risk in livestock, we examined patterns of pathogen exposure in cattle across two livestock ranching systems in rural Kenya: private ranches with low- to medium-intensity cattle production and high wildlife densities, and group ranches with high-intensity cattle production and low wildlife densities. We surveyed cattle from six ranches for three pathogens: Brucella spp., bovine viral diarrhea virus (BVDV) and Leptospira serovar Hardjo. We found that exposure risk for Leptospira was higher on private ranches than on group ranches, but there was no difference in exposure by ranch type for Brucella or BVDV. We hypothesize that variation in livestock and wildlife contact patterns between ranch types may be driving the pattern observed for Leptospira exposure and that the different relationships we found between exposure risk and ranch type by pathogen may be explained by differences in transmission mode. Overall, our results suggest that wildlife–livestock contact patterns may play a key role in shaping pathogen transmission to livestock and that the magnitude of such effects likely depend on characteristics of the pathogen in question.     

Contact rate calculation for a basic epidemic model

Mass-action epidemic models are the foundation of the majority of studies of disease dynamics in human and animal populations. Here, a kinetic model of mobile susceptible and infective individuals in a two-dimensional domain is introduced, and an examination of the contact process results in a mass-action-like term for the generation of new infectives. The conditions under which density dependent and frequency dependent transmission terms emerge are clarified. Moreover, this model suggests that epidemics in large mobile spatially distributed populations can be well described by homogeneously mixing mass-action models. The analysis generates an analytic formula for the contact rate (β) and the basic reproductive ratio (R₀) of an infectious pathogen, which contains a mixture of demographic and epidemiological parameters. The analytic results are compared with a simulation and are shown to give good agreement. The simulation permits the exploration of more realistic movement strategies and their consequent effect on epidemic dynamics.     

Spatial-Temporal Distribution of Hantavirus Rodent-Borne Infection by Oligoryzomys fulvescens in the Agua Buena Region - Panama

Background

Hotspot detection and characterization has played an increasing role in understanding the maintenance and transmission of zoonotic pathogens. Identifying the specific environmental factors (or their correlates) that influence reservoir host abundance help increase understanding of how pathogens are maintained in natural systems and are crucial to identifying disease risk. However, most recent studies are performed at macro-scale and describe broad temporal patterns of population abundances. Few have been conducted at a microscale over short time periods that better capture the dynamical patterns of key populations. These finer resolution studies may better define the likelihood of local pathogen persistence. This study characterizes the landscape distribution and spatio-temporal dynamics of Oligoryzomys fulvescens (O. fulvescens), an important mammalian reservoir in Central America.

Methods

Information collected in a longitudinal study of rodent populations in the community of Agua Buena in Tonosí, Panama, between April 2006 and December 2009 was analyzed using non-spatial analyses (box plots) and explicit spatial statistical tests (correlograms, SADIE and LISA). A 90 node grid was built (raster format) to design a base map. The area between the nodes was 0.09 km² and the total study area was 6.43 km² (2.39 x 2.69 km). The temporal assessment dataset was divided into four periods for each year studied: the dry season, rainy season, and two months-long transitions between seasons (the months of April and December).

Results

There were heterogeneous patterns in the population densities and degrees of dispersion of O. fulvescens that varied across seasons and among years. The species typically was locally absent during the late transitional months of the season, and re-established locally in subsequent years. These populations re-occurred in the same area during the first three years but subsequently re-established further south in the final year of the study. Spatial autocorrelation analyses indicated local populations encompassed approximately 300–600 m. The borders between suitable and unsuitable habitats were sharply demarcated over short distances.

Conclusion

Oligoryzomys fulvescens showed a well-defined spatial pattern that evolved over time, and led to a pattern of changing aggregation. Thus, hot spots of abundance showed a general shifting pattern that helps explain the intermittent risk from pathogens transmitted by this species. This variation was associated with seasonality, as well as anthropogenic pressures that occurred with agricultural activities. These factors help define the characteristics of the occurrence, timing, intensity and duration of synanthropic populations affected by human populations and, consequently, possible exposure that local human populations experience.     

Host and pathogen ecology drive the seasonal dynamics of a fungal disease,white-nose syndrome

Seasonal patterns in pathogen transmission can influence the impact of disease on populations and the speed of spatial spread. Increases in host contact rates or births drive seasonal epidemics in some systems, but other factors may occasionally override these influences. White-nose syndrome, caused by the emerging fungal pathogen Pseudogymnoascus destructans, is spreading across North America and threatens several bat species with extinction. We examined patterns and drivers of seasonal transmission of P. destructans by measuring infection prevalence and pathogen loads in six bat species at 30 sites across the eastern United States. Bats became transiently infected in autumn, and transmission spiked in early winter when bats began hibernating. Nearly all bats in six species became infected by late winter when infection intensity peaked. In summer, despite high contact rates and a birth pulse, most bats cleared infections and prevalence dropped to zero. These data suggest the dominant driver of seasonal transmission dynamics was a change in host physiology, specifically hibernation. Our study is the first, to the best of our knowledge, to describe the seasonality of transmission in this emerging wildlife disease. The timing of infection and fungal growth resulted in maximal population impacts, but only moderate rates of spatial spread.     

Spatiotemporal Model of Barley and Cereal Yellow Dwarf Virus Transmission Dynamics with Seasonality and Plant Competition

Many generalist pathogens are influenced by the spatial distributions and relative abundances of susceptible host species. The spatial structure of host populations can influence patterns of infection incidence (or disease outbreaks), and the effects of a generalist pathogen on host community dynamics in a spatially heterogeneous community may differ from predictions derived via simple models. In this paper, we model the transmission of a generalist pathogen within a patch framework that incorporates the movement of vectors between discrete host patches to investigate the effects of local host community composition and vector movement rates on disease dynamics.     

Brucella melitensis Biovar 1 and Brucella abortus S19 Vaccine Strain Infections in Milkers Working at Cattle Farms in the Khartoum Area,Sudan

BackgroundHuman brucellosis is a preventable zoonoses that may become persistent, causing, if left untreated, severe localized disease. Occupational exposure to infected animals or animal products and consumption of fresh contaminated dairy are main risk factors.MethodsOne hundred farmworkers employed at two cattle farms one in Khartoum North and one in Omdurman were screened for the presence of specific antibodies and seropositive workers were invited to donate a blood sample for blood culture. Molecular typing was used to characterize Brucella isolates.ResultsTen percent of farmworkers tested seropositive and while Brucella melitensis biovar 1 was isolated from the blood of three individuals, an isolate identical to the B. abortus S19 vaccine strain was isolated from a fourth person. All four bacteremic individuals were employed as milkers and did not have obvious disease.ConclusionsThe isolation of the highly infectious pathogen B. melitensis from seropositive workers is consistent with the notion that the pathogen may persist in the blood without causing overt disease. While vaccination with strain S19 is essential for the control of bovine brucellosis the vaccine strain may be transmitted to the human population and protective measures remain important to prevent exposure also in view of the presence of B. melitensis. To create awareness for this potentially severe disease more information on the prevalence of the pathogen in different risk groups and in livestock in the Sudan is needed.     

Antigenic Diversity,Transmission Mechanisms,and the Evolution of Pathogens

Pathogens have evolved diverse strategies to maximize their transmission fitness. Here we investigate these strategies for directly transmitted pathogens using mathematical models of disease pathogenesis and transmission, modeling fitness as a function of within- and between-host pathogen dynamics. The within-host model includes realistic constraints on pathogen replication via resource depletion and cross-immunity between pathogen strains. We find three distinct types of infection emerge as maxima in the fitness landscape, each characterized by particular within-host dynamics, host population contact network structure, and transmission mode. These three infection types are associated with distinct non-overlapping ranges of levels of antigenic diversity, and well-defined patterns of within-host dynamics and between-host transmissibility. Fitness, quantified by the basic reproduction number, also falls within distinct ranges for each infection type. Every type is optimal for certain contact structures over a range of contact rates. Sexually transmitted infections and childhood diseases are identified as exemplar types for low and high contact rates, respectively. This work generates a plausible mechanistic hypothesis for the observed tradeoff between pathogen transmissibility and antigenic diversity, and shows how different classes of pathogens arise evolutionarily as fitness optima for different contact network structures and host contact rates.     

Coexistence and specialization of pathogen strains on contact networks

The coexistence of different pathogen strains has implications for pathogen variability and disease control and has been explained in a number of different ways. We use contact networks, which represent interactions between individuals through which infection could be transmitted, to investigate strain coexistence. For sexually transmitted diseases the structure of contact networks has received detailed study and has been shown to be a vital determinant of the epidemiological dynamics. By using analytical pairwise models and stochastic simulations, we demonstrate that network structure also has a profound influence on the interaction between pathogen strains. In particular, when the population is serially monogamous, fully cross-reactive strains can coexist, with different strains dominating in network regions with different characteristics. Furthermore, we observe specialization of different strains in different risk groups within the network, suggesting the existence of diverging evolutionary pressures.     

Host Responses to Pathogen Priming in a Natural Songbird Host

Hosts in free-living populations can experience substantial variation in the frequency and dose of pathogen exposure, which can alter disease progression and protection from future exposures. In the house finch–Mycoplasma gallisepticum (MG) system, the pathogen is primarily transmitted via bird feeders, and some birds may be exposed to frequent low doses of MG while foraging. Here we experimentally determined how low dose, repeated exposures of house finches to MG influence host responses and protection from secondary high-dose challenge. MG-naive house finches were given priming exposures that varied in dose and total number. After quantifying host responses to priming exposures, all birds were given a secondary high-dose challenge to assess immunological protection. Dose, but not the number of exposures, significantly predicted both infection and disease severity following priming exposure. Furthermore, individuals given higher priming doses showed stronger protection upon secondary, high-dose challenge. However, even single low-dose exposures to MG, a proxy for what some birds likely experience in the wild while feeding, provided significant protection against a high-dose challenge. Our results suggest that bird feeders, which serve as sources of infection in the wild, may in some cases act as “immunizers,” with important consequences for disease dynamics.     

Exploring Individual- to Population-Level Impacts of Disease on Coral Reef Sponges: Using Spatial Analysis to Assess the Fate,Dynamics, and Transmission of Aplysina Red Band Syndrome (ARBS)

Background

Marine diseases are of increasing concern for coral reef ecosystems, but often their causes, dynamics and impacts are unknown. The current study investigated the epidemiology of Aplysina Red Band Syndrome (ARBS), a disease affecting the Caribbean sponge Aplysina cauliformis, at both the individual and population levels. The fates of marked healthy and ARBS-infected sponges were examined over the course of a year. Population-level impacts and transmission mechanisms of ARBS were investigated by monitoring two populations of A. cauliformis over a three year period using digital photography and diver-collected data, and analyzing these data with GIS techniques of spatial analysis. In this study, three commonly used spatial statistics (Ripley’s K, Getis-Ord General G, and Moran’s Index) were compared to each other and with direct measurements of individual interactions using join-counts, to determine the ideal method for investigating disease dynamics and transmission mechanisms in this system. During the study period, Hurricane Irene directly impacted these populations, providing an opportunity to assess potential storm effects on A. cauliformis and ARBS.

Results

Infection with ARBS caused increased loss of healthy sponge tissue over time and a higher likelihood of individual mortality. Hurricane Irene had a dramatic effect on A. cauliformis populations by greatly reducing sponge biomass on the reef, especially among diseased individuals. Spatial analysis showed that direct contact between A. cauliformis individuals was the likely transmission mechanism for ARBS within a population, evidenced by a significantly higher number of contact-joins between diseased sponges compared to random. Of the spatial statistics compared, the Moran’s Index best represented true connections between diseased sponges in the survey area. This study showed that spatial analysis can be a powerful tool for investigating disease dynamics and transmission in a coral reef ecosystem.