Using a Web-Based Application to Define the Accuracy of Diagnostic Tests When the Gold Standard Is Imperfect

Background

Estimates of the sensitivity and specificity for new diagnostic tests based on evaluation against a known gold standard are imprecise when the accuracy of the gold standard is imperfect. Bayesian latent class models (LCMs) can be helpful under these circumstances, but the necessary analysis requires expertise in computational programming. Here, we describe open-access web-based applications that allow non-experts to apply Bayesian LCMs to their own data sets via a user-friendly interface.

Methods/Principal Findings

Applications for Bayesian LCMs were constructed on a web server using R and WinBUGS programs. The models provided (http://mice.tropmedres.ac) include two Bayesian LCMs: the two-tests in two-population model (Hui and Walter model) and the three-tests in one-population model (Walter and Irwig model). Both models are available with simplified and advanced interfaces. In the former, all settings for Bayesian statistics are fixed as defaults. Users input their data set into a table provided on the webpage. Disease prevalence and accuracy of diagnostic tests are then estimated using the Bayesian LCM, and provided on the web page within a few minutes. With the advanced interfaces, experienced researchers can modify all settings in the models as needed. These settings include correlation among diagnostic test results and prior distributions for all unknown parameters. The web pages provide worked examples with both models using the original data sets presented by Hui and Walter in 1980, and by Walter and Irwig in 1988. We also illustrate the utility of the advanced interface using the Walter and Irwig model on a data set from a recent melioidosis study. The results obtained from the web-based applications were comparable to those published previously.

Conclusions

The newly developed web-based applications are open-access and provide an important new resource for researchers worldwide to evaluate new diagnostic tests.     

Diagnostic Accuracy and Optimal Use of Three Tests for Tuberculosis in Live Badgers

Background

Accurate diagnosis of tuberculosis (TB) due to infection with Mycobacterium bovis is notoriously difficult in live animals, yet important if we are to understand the epidemiology of TB and devise effective strategies to limit its spread. Currently available tests for diagnosing TB in live Eurasian badgers (Meles meles) remain unvalidated against a reliable gold standard. The aim of the present study was to evaluate the diagnostic accuracy and optimal use of three tests for TB in badgers in the absence of a gold standard.

Methodology/Principal Findings

A Bayesian approach was used to evaluate the diagnostic accuracy and optimal use of mycobacterial culture, gamma-interferon assay and a commercially available serological test using multiple samples collected from 305 live wild badgers. Although no single test was judged to be sufficiently sensitive and specific to be used as a sole diagnostic method, selective combined use of the three tests allowed guidelines to be formulated that allow a diagnosis to be made for individual animals with an estimated overall accuracy of 93% (range: 75% to 97%). Employing this approach in the study population of badgers resulted in approximately 13 out of 14 animals having their true infection status correctly classified from samples collected on a single capture.

Conclusions/Significance

This method of interpretation represents a marked improvement on the current procedure for diagnosing M. bovis infection in live badgers. The results should be of use to inform future test and intervention strategies with the aim of reducing the incidence of TB in free-living wild badger populations.     

Sensitivity of the Quantiferon-Gold In-Tube Assay in Sputum Smear Positive TB Cases in Indonesia

Background

As part of a formal evaluation of the Quantiferon-Gold in-tube assay (QFT-IT) for latent TB infection we compared its sensitivity to the tuberculin skin test (TST) in confirmed adult TB cases in Indonesia. Smear-positive TB disease was used as a proxy gold standard for latent TB infection.

Methods and Findings

We compared the sensitivity of QFT-IT and TST in 98 sputum smear and chest x-ray positive TB cases and investigated risk factors for negative and discordant results in both tests. Both tests showed high sensitivity; (QFT-IT; 88.7%: TST; 94.9%), not significantly different from each other (p value 0.11). Very high sensitivity was seen when tests were combined (98.9%). There were no variables significantly associated with discordant results or with a negative TST. For QFT-IT which particular staff member collected blood was significantly associated with test positivity (p value 0.01). Study limitations include small sample size and lack of culture confirmation or HIV test results.

Conclusions

The QFT-IT has similar sensitivity in Indonesian TB cases as in other locations. However, QFT-IT, like the TST cannot distinguish active TB disease from LTBI. In countries such as Indonesia, with high background rates of LTBI, test specificity for TB disease will likely be low. While our study was not designed to evaluate the QFT-IT in the diagnosis of active TB disease in TB suspects, the data suggest that a combination of TST and QFT-IT may prove useful for ruling out TB disease. Further research is required to explore the clinical role of QFT-IT in combination with other TB diagnostic tests.     

Bayesian Receiver Operating Characteristic Estimation of Multiple Tests for Diagnosis of Bovine Tuberculosis in Chadian Cattle

Background

Bovine tuberculosis (BTB) today primarily affects developing countries. In Africa, the disease is present essentially on the whole continent; however, little accurate information on its distribution and prevalence is available. Also, attempts to evaluate diagnostic tests for BTB in naturally infected cattle are scarce and mostly complicated by the absence of knowledge of the true disease status of the tested animals. However, diagnostic test evaluation in a given setting is a prerequisite for the implementation of local surveillance schemes and control measures.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We subjected a slaughterhouse population of 954 Chadian cattle to single intra-dermal comparative cervical tuberculin (SICCT) testing and two recently developed fluorescence polarization assays (FPA). Using a Bayesian modeling approach we computed the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve of each diagnostic test, the true disease prevalence in the sampled population and the disease status of all sampled animals in the absence of knowledge of the true disease status of the sampled animals. In our Chadian setting, SICCT performed better if the cut-off for positive test interpretation was lowered from >4 mm (OIE standard cut-off) to >2 mm. Using this cut-off, SICCT showed a sensitivity and specificity of 66% and 89%, respectively. Both FPA tests showed sensitivities below 50% but specificities above 90%. The true disease prevalence was estimated at 8%. Altogether, 11% of the sampled animals showed gross visible tuberculous lesions. However, modeling of the BTB disease status of the sampled animals indicated that 72% of the suspected tuberculosis lesions detected during standard meat inspections were due to other pathogens than Mycobacterium bovis.

Conclusions/Significance

Our results have important implications for BTB diagnosis in a high incidence sub-Saharan African setting and demonstrate the practicability of our Bayesian approach for diagnostic test evaluation.     

Diagnosis of Tuberculosis in the Wild Boar (Sus scrofa): A Comparison of Methods Applicable to Hunter-Harvested Animals

Background

To obtain robust epidemiological information regarding tuberculosis (TB) in wildlife species, appropriate diagnostic methods need to be used. Wild boar (Sus scrofa) recently emerged as a major maintenance host for TB in some European countries. Nevertheless, no data is available to evaluate TB post-mortem diagnostic methods in hunter-harvested wild boar.

Methodology/Principal Findings

Six different diagnostic methods for TB were evaluated in parallel in 167 hunter-harvested wild boar. Compared to bacteriological culture, estimates of sensitivity of histopathology was 77.8%, gross pathology 72.2%, PCR for the MPB70 gene 66.7%, detection of acid-fast bacilli (AFB) in tissue contact smears 55.6% and in histopathology slides 16.7% (estimated specificity was 96.7%, 100%, 100%, 94.4% and 100%, respectively). Combining gross pathology with stained smears in parallel increased estimated sensitivity to 94.4% (94.4% specificity). Four probable bacteriological culture false-negative animals were identified by Discriminant Function Analysis. Recalculating the parameters considering these animals as infected generated estimated values for sensitivity of bacteriology and histopathology of 81.8%, gross pathology 72.7%, PCR for the MPB70 gene 63.6%, detection of AFB in tissue contact smears 54.5% and in histopathology slides 13.6% (estimated specificity was 100% for gross pathology, PCR, bacteriology and detection of AFB in histopathology slides, 96.7% for histopathology and 94.4% for stained smears).

Conclusions/Significance

These results show that surveys for TB in wild boar based exclusively on gross pathology considerably underestimate prevalence, while combination of tests in parallel much improves sensitivity and negative predictive values. This finding should thus be considered when planning future surveys and game meat inspection schemes. Although bacteriological culture is the reference test for TB diagnosis, it can generate false-negative results and this should be considered when interpreting data.     

Rapid Antigen Detection Tests for Malaria Diagnosis in Severely Ill Papua New Guinean Children: A Comparative Study Using Bayesian Latent Class Models

Background

Although rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) have practical advantages over light microscopy (LM) and good sensitivity in severe falciparum malaria in Africa, their utility where severe non-falciparum malaria occurs is unknown. LM, RDTs and polymerase chain reaction (PCR)-based methods have limitations, and thus conventional comparative malaria diagnostic studies employ imperfect gold standards. We assessed whether, using Bayesian latent class models (LCMs) which do not require a reference method, RDTs could safely direct initial anti-infective therapy in severe ill children from an area of hyperendemic transmission of both Plasmodium falciparum and P. vivax.

Methods and Findings

We studied 797 Papua New Guinean children hospitalized with well-characterized severe illness for whom LM, RDT and nested PCR (nPCR) results were available. For any severe malaria, the estimated prevalence was 47.5% with RDTs exhibiting similar sensitivity and negative predictive value (NPV) to nPCR (≥96.0%). LM was the least sensitive test (87.4%) and had the lowest NPV (89.7%), but had the highest specificity (99.1%) and positive predictive value (98.9%). For severe falciparum malaria (prevalence 42.9%), the findings were similar. For non-falciparum severe malaria (prevalence 6.9%), no test had the WHO-recommended sensitivity and specificity of >95% and >90%, respectively. RDTs were the least sensitive (69.6%) and had the lowest NPV (96.7%).

Conclusions

RDTs appear a valuable point-of-care test that is at least equivalent to LM in diagnosing severe falciparum malaria in this epidemiologic situation. None of the tests had the required sensitivity/specificity for severe non-falciparum malaria but the number of false-negative RDTs in this group was small.     

True versus apparent malaria infection prevalence: the contribution of a Bayesian approach

Aims

To present a new approach for estimating the “true prevalence” of malaria and apply it to datasets from Peru, Vietnam, and Cambodia.

Methods

Bayesian models were developed for estimating both the malaria prevalence using different diagnostic tests (microscopy, PCR & ELISA), without the need of a gold standard, and the tests'' characteristics. Several sources of information, i.e. data, expert opinions and other sources of knowledge can be integrated into the model. This approach resulting in an optimal and harmonized estimate of malaria infection prevalence, with no conflict between the different sources of information, was tested on data from Peru, Vietnam and Cambodia.

Results

Malaria sero-prevalence was relatively low in all sites, with ELISA showing the highest estimates. The sensitivity of microscopy and ELISA were statistically lower in Vietnam than in the other sites. Similarly, the specificities of microscopy, ELISA and PCR were significantly lower in Vietnam than in the other sites. In Vietnam and Peru, microscopy was closer to the “true” estimate than the other 2 tests while as expected ELISA, with its lower specificity, usually overestimated the prevalence.

Conclusions

Bayesian methods are useful for analyzing prevalence results when no gold standard diagnostic test is available. Though some results are expected, e.g. PCR more sensitive than microscopy, a standardized and context-independent quantification of the diagnostic tests'' characteristics (sensitivity and specificity) and the underlying malaria prevalence may be useful for comparing different sites. Indeed, the use of a single diagnostic technique could strongly bias the prevalence estimation. This limitation can be circumvented by using a Bayesian framework taking into account the imperfect characteristics of the currently available diagnostic tests. As discussed in the paper, this approach may further support global malaria burden estimation initiatives.     

The diagnostic accuracy of serologic and molecular methods for detecting visceral leishmaniasis in HIV infected patients: meta-analysis

Background

Human visceral leishmaniasis (VL), a potentially fatal disease, has emerged as an important opportunistic condition in HIV infected patients. In immunocompromised patients, serological investigation is considered not an accurate diagnostic method for VL diagnosis and molecular techniques seem especially promising.

Objective

This work is a comprehensive systematic review and meta-analysis to evaluate the accuracy of serologic and molecular tests for VL diagnosis specifically in HIV-infected patients.

Methods

Two independent reviewers searched PubMed and LILACS databases. The quality of studies was assessed by QUADAS score. Sensitivity and specificity were pooled separately and compared with overall accuracy measures: diagnostic odds ratio (DOR) and symmetric summary receiver operating characteristic (sROC).

Results

Thirty three studies recruiting 1,489 patients were included. The following tests were evaluated: Immunofluorescence Antibody Test (IFAT), Enzyme linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA), immunoblotting (Blot), direct agglutination test (DAT) and polimerase chain reaction (PCR) in whole blood and bone marrow. Most studies were carried out in Europe. Serological tests varied widely in performance, but with overall limited sensitivity. IFAT had poor sensitivity ranging from 11% to 82%. DOR (95% confidence interval) was higher for DAT 36.01 (9.95–130.29) and Blot 27.51 (9.27–81.66) than for IFAT 7.43 (3.08–1791) and ELISA 3.06 (0.71–13.10). PCR in whole blood had the highest DOR: 400.35 (58.47–2741.42). The accuracy of PCR based on Q-point was 0.95; 95%CI 0.92–0.97, which means good overall performance.

Conclusion

Based mainly on evidence gained by infection with Leishmania infantum chagasi, serological tests should not be used to rule out a diagnosis of VL among the HIV-infected, but a positive test at even low titers has diagnostic value when combined with the clinical case definition. Considering the available evidence, tests based on DNA detection are highly sensitive and may contribute to a diagnostic workup.     

Predictive models for the diagnostic of human visceral leishmaniasis in Brazil

Background and Objectives

In Brazil, as in many other affected countries, a large proportion of visceral leishmaniasis (VL) occurs in remote locations and treatment is often performed on basis of clinical suspicion. This study aimed at developing predictive models to help with the clinical management of VL in patients with suggestive clinical of disease.

Methods

Cases of VL (n = 213) had the diagnosis confirmed by parasitological method, non-cases (n = 119) presented suggestive clinical presentation of VL but a negative parasitological diagnosis and a firm diagnosis of another disease. The original data set was divided into two samples for generation and validation of the prediction models. Prediction models based on clinical signs and symptoms, results of laboratory exams and results of five different serological tests, were developed by means of logistic regression and classification and regression trees (CART). From these models, clinical-laboratory and diagnostic prediction scores were generated. The area under the receiver operator characteristic curve, sensitivity, specificity, and positive predictive value were used to evaluate the models'' performance.

Results

Based on the variables splenomegaly, presence of cough and leukopenia and on the results of five serological tests it was possible to generate six predictive models using logistic regression, showing sensitivity ranging from 90.1 to 99.0% and specificity ranging from 53.0 to 97.2%. Based on the variables splenomegaly, leukopenia, cough, age and weight loss and on the results of five serological tests six predictive models were generated using CART with sensitivity ranging from 90.1 to 97.2% and specificity ranging from 68.4 to 97.4%. The models composed of clinical-laboratory variables and the rk39 rapid test showed the best performance.

Conclusion

The predictive models showed to be a potential useful tool to assist healthcare systems and control programs in their strategical choices, contributing to more efficient and more rational allocation of healthcare resources.     

Study on the Factors Associated with Postpartum Visits in Rural China

Background

Postpartum visits (PPVs) have been advocated as a way to improve health outcomes for mothers and their infants, but the rate of PPVs is still low in rural China. This study aims to investigate the utilization of PPVs and to explore the factors associated with PPVs in rural China. Parity is the most concerned factor in this study.

Methods

A cross-sectional household survey was performed in two counties of Zhejiang province. Questions include socio-economic, health services and women''s delivery data. Chi-square tests and multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed to identify factors associated with PPVs.

Results

223 women who had a delivery history in the recent five years were enrolled in analyses. 173 (78%) of them were primiparous. Among the primiparous women, 43 (25%) had not received any PPVs. The majority, 27 (55%) of the 49 multiparous women, had not received any PPVs. Multiparous women were less likely to receive PPVs than primiparous women. Among 223 puerperal women, 47 (21%) had been compensated for delivery fee expenses. Women who received compensation were found to be more likely to receive standard (at least 3) PPVs.

Conclusions

It was found that women with “second babies” were less likely to use PPVs. This could be an unintended consequence of the “one-child policy”, due to fear that contact with public health facilities could result in sanctions. This phenomenon should be taken seriously by government in order to improve the health of babies and their mothers. Financial compensation for delivery fee charges can improve the use of PPVs, thus free-of-charge delivery should be promoted.     

Antibody-Based Detection Tests for the Diagnosis of Helicobacter pylori Infection in Children: A Meta-Analysis

Background

Numerous serologic tests are available for the diagnosis of H. pylori infection in children. Common designs of antibody-based detection tests are ELISA and Western Blot (WB). For developing countries with limited laboratory resources and access, ELISA would be the preferred method because of its simplicity, lower cost and speed. Although in adults ELISA has proven to be highly accurate in diagnosing H. pylori infection; in children, it has shown variable accuracy.

Methods/Findings

We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to assess the accuracy of antibody-based detection tests for the diagnosis of H. pylori infection in children. Selection criteria included participation of at least 30 children and the use of a gold standard for H. pylori diagnosis. In a comprehensive search we identified 68 studies. Subgroup analyses were carried out by technique, immunoglobulin class, and source of test (commercial and in-house). The results demonstrated: 1) WB tests showed high overall performance, sensitivity 91.3% (95% CI, 88.9–93.3), specificity 89% (95% CI, 85.7–91.9), LR+ 8.2 (95% CI, 5.1–13.3), LR− 0.06 (95% CI, 0.02–0.16), DOR 158.8 (95% CI, 57.8–435.8); 2) ELISA-IgG assays showed low sensitivity 79.2% (95% CI, 77.3–81.0) and high specificity (92.4%, 95% CI, 91.6–93.3); 3) ELISA commercial tests varied widely in performance (test for heterogeneity p<0.0001); and 4) In-house ELISA with whole-cell antigen tests showed the highest overall performance: sensitivity 94% (95% CI, 90.2–96.7), specificity 96.4% (95% CI, 94.2–97.9), LR+ 19.9 (95% CI, 7.9–49.8), LR− 0.08 (95% CI, 0.04–0.15) DOR 292.8 (95% CI, 101.8–841.7).

Conclusions/Significance

WB test and in-house ELISA with whole-cell antigen tests are the most reliable tests for the diagnosis of H. pylori infection in children. Antigens obtained from local strains of the community could partially explain the good overall accuracy of the in-house ELISA. Because of its cost and technical demands, in-house ELISA might be more suitable for use in developing countries.     

Commercial serological tests for the diagnosis of active pulmonary and extrapulmonary tuberculosis: an updated systematic review and meta-analysis

Background

Serological (antibody detection) tests for tuberculosis (TB) are widely used in developing countries. As part of a World Health Organization policy process, we performed an updated systematic review to assess the diagnostic accuracy of commercial serological tests for pulmonary and extrapulmonary TB with a focus on the relevance of these tests in low- and middle-income countries.

Methods and Findings

We used methods recommended by the Cochrane Collaboration and GRADE approach for rating quality of evidence. In a previous review, we searched multiple databases for papers published from 1 January 1990 to 30 May 2006, and in this update, we add additional papers published from that period until 29 June 2010. We prespecified subgroups to address heterogeneity and summarized test performance using bivariate random effects meta-analysis. For pulmonary TB, we included 67 studies (48% from low- and middle-income countries) with 5,147 participants. For all tests, estimates were variable for sensitivity (0% to 100%) and specificity (31% to 100%). For anda-TB IgG, the only test with enough studies for meta-analysis, pooled sensitivity was 76% (95% CI 63%–87%) in smear-positive (seven studies) and 59% (95% CI 10%–96%) in smear-negative (four studies) patients; pooled specificities were 92% (95% CI 74%–98%) and 91% (95% CI 79%–96%), respectively. Compared with ELISA (pooled sensitivity 60% [95% CI 6%–65%]; pooled specificity 98% [95% CI 96%–99%]), immunochromatographic tests yielded lower pooled sensitivity (53%, 95% CI 42%–64%) and comparable pooled specificity (98%, 95% CI 94%–99%). For extrapulmonary TB, we included 25 studies (40% from low- and middle-income countries) with 1,809 participants. For all tests, estimates were variable for sensitivity (0% to 100%) and specificity (59% to 100%). Overall, quality of evidence was graded very low for studies of pulmonary and extrapulmonary TB.

Conclusions

Despite expansion of the literature since 2006, commercial serological tests continue to produce inconsistent and imprecise estimates of sensitivity and specificity. Quality of evidence remains very low. These data informed a recently published World Health Organization policy statement against serological tests. Please see later in the article for the Editors'' Summary     

Nucleic acid amplification tests for diagnosis of smear-negative TB in a high HIV-prevalence setting: a prospective cohort study

Background

Nucleic acid amplification tests are sensitive for identifying Mycobacterium tuberculosis in populations with positive sputum smears for acid-fast bacilli, but less sensitive in sputum-smear-negative populations. Few studies have evaluated the clinical impact of these tests in low-income countries with high burdens of TB and HIV.

Methods

We prospectively enrolled 211 consecutive adults with cough ≥2 weeks and negative sputum smears at Mulago Hospital in Kampala, Uganda. We tested a single early-morning sputum specimen for Mycobacterium tuberculosis DNA using two nucleic acid amplification tests: a novel in-house polymerase chain reaction targeting the mycobacterial secA1 gene, and the commercial Amplified® Mycobacterium tuberculosis Direct (MTD) test (Gen-Probe Inc, San Diego, CA). We calculated the diagnostic accuracy of these index tests in reference to a primary microbiologic gold standard (positive mycobacterial culture of sputum or bronchoalveolar lavage fluid), and measured their likely clinical impact on additional tuberculosis cases detected among those not prescribed initial TB treatment.

Results

Of 211 patients enrolled, 170 (81%) were HIV-seropositive, with median CD4+ T-cell count 78 cells/µL (interquartile range 29-203). Among HIV-seropositive patients, 94 (55%) reported taking co-trimoxazole prophylaxis and 29 (17%) reported taking antiretroviral therapy. Seventy-five patients (36%) had culture-confirmed TB. Sensitivity of MTD was 39% (95% CI 28–51) and that of secA1 was 24% (95% CI 15–35). Both tests had specificities of 95% (95% CI 90–98). The MTD test correctly identified 18 (24%) TB patients not treated at discharge and led to a 72% relative increase in the smear-negative case detection rate.

Conclusions

The secA1 and MTD nucleic acid amplification tests had moderate sensitivity and high specificity for TB in a predominantly HIV-seropositive population with negative sputum smears. Although newer, more sensitive nucleic acid assays may enhance detection of Mycobacterium tuberculosis in sputum, even currently available tests can provide substantial clinical impact in smear-negative populations.     

A Systematic Review on the Diagnosis of Pediatric Bacterial Pneumonia: When Gold Is Bronze

Background

In developing countries, pneumonia is one of the leading causes of death in children under five years of age and hence timely and accurate diagnosis is critical. In North America, pneumonia is also a common source of childhood morbidity and occasionally mortality. Clinicians traditionally have used the chest radiograph as the gold standard in the diagnosis of pneumonia, but they are becoming increasingly aware that it is not ideal. Numerous studies have shown that chest radiography findings lack precision in defining the etiology of childhood pneumonia. There is no single test that reliably distinguishes bacterial from non-bacterial causes. These factors have resulted in clinicians historically using a combination of physical signs and chest radiographs as a ‘gold standard’, though this combination of tests has been shown to be imperfect for diagnosis and assigning treatment. The objectives of this systematic review are to: 1) identify and categorize studies that have used single or multiple tests as a gold standard for assessing accuracy of other tests, and 2) given the ‘gold standard’ used, determine the accuracy of these other tests for diagnosing childhood bacterial pneumonia.

Methods and Findings

Search strategies were developed using a combination of subject headings and keywords adapted for 18 electronic bibliographic databases from inception to May 2008. Published studies were included if they: 1) included children one month to 18 years of age, 2) provided sufficient data regarding diagnostic accuracy to construct a 2×2 table, and 3) assessed the accuracy of one or more index tests as compared with other test(s) used as a ‘gold standard’. The literature search revealed 5,989 references of which 256 were screened for inclusion, resulting in 25 studies that satisfied all inclusion criteria. The studies examined a range of bacterium types and assessed the accuracy of several combinations of diagnostic tests. Eleven different gold standards were studied in the 25 included studies. Criterion validity was calculated for fourteen different index tests using eleven different gold standards. The most common gold standard utilized was blood culture tests used in six studies. Fourteen different tests were measured as index tests. PCT was the most common measured in five studies each with a different gold standard.

Conclusions

We have found that studies assessing the diagnostic accuracy of clinical, radiological, and laboratory tests for bacterial childhood pneumonia have used a heterogeneous group of gold standards, and found, at least in part because of this, that index tests have widely different accuracies. These findings highlight the need for identifying a widely accepted gold standard for diagnosis of bacterial pneumonia in children.     

Inaccurate Diagnosis of HIV-1 Group M and O Is a Key Challenge for Ongoing Universal Access to Antiretroviral Treatment and HIV Prevention in Cameroon

Background

Increased access to HIV testing is essential in working towards universal access to HIV prevention and treatment in resource-limited countries. We here evaluated currently used HIV diagnostic tests and algorithms in Cameroon for their ability to correctly identify HIV infections.

Methods

We estimated sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values of 5 rapid/simple tests, of which 3 were used by the national program, and 2 fourth generation ELISAs. The reference panel included 500 locally collected samples; 187 HIV -1 M, 10 HIV-1 O, 259 HIV negative and 44 HIV indeterminate plasmas.

Results

None of the 5 rapid assays and only 1 ELISA reached the current WHO/UNAIDS recommendations on performance of HIV tests of at least 99% sensitivity and 98% specificity. Overall, sensitivities ranged between 94.1% and 100%, while specificities were 88.0% to 98.8%. The combination of all assays generated up to 9% of samples with indeterminate HIV status, because they reacted discordantly with at least one of the different tests. Including HIV indeterminate samples in test efficiency calculations significantly decreased specificities to a range from 77.9% to 98.0%. Finally, two rapid assays failed to detect all HIV-1 group O variants tested, with one rapid test detecting only 2 out of 10 group O specimens.

Conclusion

In the era of ART scaling-up in Africa, significant proportions of false positive but also false negative results are still observed with HIV screening tests commonly used in Africa, resulting in inadequate treatment and prevention strategies. Depending on tests or algorithms used, up to 6% of HIV-1 M and 80% of HIV-1 O infected patients in Cameroon do not receive ART and adequate counseling to prevent further transmission due to low sensitivities. Also, the use of tests with low specificities could imply inclusion of up to 12% HIV negative people in ART programs and increase budgets in addition to inconveniences caused to patients.     

Diagnostic Accuracy of the Leishmania OligoC-TesT and NASBA-Oligochromatography for Diagnosis of Leishmaniasis in Sudan

Background

The Leishmania OligoC-TesT and NASBA-Oligochromatography (OC) were recently developed for simplified and standardised molecular detection of Leishmania parasites in clinical specimens. We here present the phase II evaluation of both tests for diagnosis of visceral leishmaniasis (VL), cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) and post kala-azar dermal leishmaniasis (PKDL) in Sudan.

Methodology

The diagnostic accuracy of the tests was evaluated on 90 confirmed and 90 suspected VL cases, 7 confirmed and 8 suspected CL cases, 2 confirmed PKDL cases and 50 healthy endemic controls from Gedarif state and Khartoum state in Sudan.

Principal Findings

The OligoC-TesT as well as the NASBA-OC showed a sensitivity of 96.8% (95% CI: 83.8%–99.4%) on lymph node aspirates and of 96.2% (95% CI: 89.4%–98.7%) on blood from the confirmed VL cases. The sensitivity on bone marrow was 96.9% (95% CI: 89.3%–99.1%) and 95.3% (95% CI: 87.1%–98.4%) for the OligoC-TesT and NASBA-OC, respectively. All confirmed CL and PKDL cases were positive with both tests. On the suspected VL cases, we observed a positive OligoC-TesT and NASBA-OC result in 37.1% (95% CI: 23.2%–53.7%) and 34.3% (95% CI: 20.8%–50.9%) on lymph, in 72.7% (95% CI: 55.8%–84.9%) and 63.6% (95% CI: 46.6%–77.8%) on bone marrow and in 76.9% (95% CI: 49.7%–91.8%) and 69.2% (95% CI: 42.4%–87.3%) on blood. Seven out of 8 CL suspected cases were positive with both tests. The specificity on the healthy endemic controls was 90% (95% CI: 78.6%–95.7%) for the OligoC-TesT and 100% (95% CI: 92.9%–100.0%) for the NASBA-OC test.

Conclusions

Both tests showed high sensitivity on lymph, blood and tissue scrapings for diagnosis of VL, CL and PKDL in Sudan, but the specificity for clinical VL was significantly higher with NASBA-OC.     

Estimating the Accuracy of Anal Cytology in the Presence of an Imperfect Reference Standard

Background

The study aim is to estimate sensitivity and specificity of anal cytology for histologic HSIL in analyses adjusted for the imperfect biopsy reference standard.

Methods and Principal Findings

Retrospective cohort study of an anal dysplasia screening program for HIV infected adults. We estimated the prevalence of histologic HSIL by concurrent cytology category and the associated cytology ROC area. Cytology operating characteristics for HSIL were estimated and adjusted for the imperfect reference standard by 3 methodologies. The study cohort included 261 patients with 3 available measures: (1) referral cytology; (2) HRA cytology; and (3) HRA directed biopsy. The prevalence of biopsy HSIL varied according to the concurrent HRA cytology result: 64.5% for HSIL or ASC-H, 12.6% for LSIL, 10.9% for ASCUS, and 6.3% for no abnormality. The cytology ROC area was 0.78. The observed prevalence of HSIL was 37% (referral cytology), 24% (HRA cytology), and 24% (HRA biopsy). Unadjusted estimates of sensitivity and specificity of cytology were 0.66 and 0.90, respectively. Adjusted estimates varied from 0.47–0.89 (sensitivity) and 0.89—1.0 (specificity).

Conclusions

Analysis of a single dataset yields widely different estimates of anal cytology operating characteristics that depend on difficult to verify assumptions regarding the accuracy of the imperfect reference standard.