Temperature adaptation of soil bacterial communities along an Antarctic climate gradient: predicting responses to climate warming

Soil microorganisms, the central drivers of terrestrial Antarctic ecosystems, are being confronted with increasing temperatures as parts of the continent experience considerable warming. Here we determined short‐term temperature dependencies of Antarctic soil bacterial community growth rates, using the leucine incorporation technique, in order to predict future changes in temperature sensitivity of resident soil bacterial communities. Soil samples were collected along a climate gradient consisting of locations on the Antarctic Peninsula (Anchorage Island, 67 °34′S, 68 °08′W), Signy Island (60 °43′S, 45 °38′W) and the Falkland Islands (51 °76′S 59 °03′W). At each location, experimental plots were subjected to warming by open top chambers (OTCs) and paired with control plots on vegetated and fell‐field habitats. The bacterial communities were adapted to the mean annual temperature of their environment, as shown by a significant correlation between the mean annual soil temperature and the minimum temperature for bacterial growth (T_min). Every 1 °C rise in soil temperature was estimated to increase T_min by 0.24–0.38 °C. The optimum temperature for bacterial growth varied less and did not have as clear a relationship with soil temperature. Temperature sensitivity, indicated by Q₁₀ values, increased with mean annual soil temperature, suggesting that bacterial communities from colder regions were less temperature sensitive than those from the warmer regions. The OTC warming (generally <1 °C temperature increases) over 3 years had no effects on temperature relationship of the soil bacterial community. We estimate that the predicted temperature increase of 2.6 °C for the Antarctic Peninsula would increase T_min by 0.6–1 °C and Q₁₀ (0–10 °C) by 0.5 units.     

Implications of global warming for the climate of African rainforests

African rainforests are likely to be vulnerable to changes in temperature and precipitation, yet there has been relatively little research to suggest how the regional climate might respond to global warming. This study presents projections of temperature and precipitation indices of relevance to African rainforests, using global climate model experiments to identify local change as a function of global temperature increase. A multi-model ensemble and two perturbed physics ensembles are used, one with over 100 members. In the east of the Congo Basin, most models (92%) show a wet signal, whereas in west equatorial Africa, the majority (73%) project an increase in dry season water deficits. This drying is amplified as global temperature increases, and in over half of coupled models by greater than 3% per °C of global warming. Analysis of atmospheric dynamics in a subset of models suggests that this could be partly because of a rearrangement of zonal circulation, with enhanced convection in the Indian Ocean and anomalous subsidence over west equatorial Africa, the Atlantic Ocean and, in some seasons, the Amazon Basin. Further research to assess the plausibility of this and other mechanisms is important, given the potential implications of drying in these rainforest regions.     

Thermal plasticity of photosynthesis: the role of acclimation in forest responses to a warming climate

The increasing air temperatures central to climate change predictions have the potential to alter forest ecosystem function and structure by exceeding temperatures optimal for carbon gain. Such changes are projected to threaten survival of sensitive species, leading to local extinctions, range migrations, and altered forest composition. This study investigated photosynthetic sensitivity to temperature and the potential for acclimation in relation to the climatic provenance of five species of deciduous trees, Liquidambar styraciflua, Quercus rubra, Quercus falcata, Betula alleghaniensis, and Populus grandidentata. Open‐top chambers supplied three levels of warming (+0, +2, and +4 °C above ambient) over 3 years, tracking natural temperature variability. Optimal temperature for CO₂ assimilation was strongly correlated with daytime temperature in all treatments, but assimilation rates at those optima were comparable. Adjustment of thermal optima was confirmed in all species, whether temperatures varied with season or treatment, and regardless of climate in the species' range or provenance of the plant material. Temperature optima from 17° to 34° were observed. Across species, acclimation potentials varied from 0.55 °C to 1.07 °C per degree change in daytime temperature. Responses to the temperature manipulation were not different from the seasonal acclimation observed in mature indigenous trees, suggesting that photosynthetic responses should not be modeled using static temperature functions, but should incorporate an adjustment to account for acclimation. The high degree of homeostasis observed indicates that direct impacts of climatic warming on forest productivity, species survival, and range limits may be less than predicted by existing models.     

温度升高对昆虫发生发展的影响

全世界地表平均温度在上个世纪增加了0.74℃,并且在未来还会持续增加。在过去的20年,气候变暖对生物系统的影响吸引了大量的研究。本文综述了由温度升高为主要驱动因子的气候变化对昆虫适合度的影响,主要从昆虫越冬存活率、化性(世代数)、扩散迁移、发生分布、物候关系5个方面阐述气候变暖对昆虫发生发展的作用,认为未来应长期进行昆虫种群动态监测预警,更关注气候变暖下植物-害虫-天敌互作关系的研究。     

Macro-zooplankter responses to simulated climate warming in experimental freshwater microcosms

1. We report data collected from 48 replicated microcosm communities created to mimic plant‐dominated shallow lake and pond environments. Over a 2‐year period, the microcosms were subjected to warming treatments (continuous 3 °C above ambient and 3 °C above ambient during summer only), a nutrient addition treatment and the presence or absence of fish. We tracked macro‐zooplankter dynamics, censusing cladoceran populations at the species level, copepods at the order level and ostracods as a class. 2. Responses to warming were subtle. Cladoceran diversity and overall abundance were not significantly affected by warming, although measures of community evenness increased. Warming effects on patterns of population trajectories tended to be strongly seasonal and most apparent during periods of pronounced increase. Populations of the prevalent cladocerans, Chydorus sphaericus and Simocephalus vetulus, displayed idiosyncratic patterns, with evidence in the case of S. vetulus for a negative relationship between warming and body‐size at maturity. Copepod populations were reduced in size by warming, but those of ostracods increased. 3. The effects of the nutrient addition and fish treatments were strong and consistent, interacting little with warming effects in statistical models. Zooplankter abundance tended to be the highest in the fish‐free microcosms receiving additional nutrient inputs and lowest when fish were present and no nutrients were added. Both treatments reduced cladoceran diversity and community evenness. 4. We suggest that warming, independently, is unlikely to supplant the effects of changing nutrient loading and fish predation as the major driver of zooplankter dynamics in shallow lakes and ponds. Moreover, in the situations where warming was of significant influence in our experiment, the distinction between summer‐only warming and year‐around warming was blurred. This suggests that warming effects were most pervasive during the summer, at the upper end of the temperature spectrum.     

Amazon Basin climate under global warming: the role of the sea surface temperature

The Hadley Centre coupled climate-carbon cycle model (HadCM3LC) predicts loss of the Amazon rainforest in response to future anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. In this study, the atmospheric component of HadCM3LC is used to assess the role of simulated changes in mid-twenty-first century sea surface temperature (SST) in Amazon Basin climate change. When the full HadCM3LC SST anomalies (SSTAs) are used, the atmosphere model reproduces the Amazon Basin climate change exhibited by HadCM3LC, including much of the reduction in Amazon Basin rainfall. This rainfall change is shown to be the combined effect of SSTAs in both the tropical Atlantic and the Pacific, with roughly equal contributions from each basin. The greatest rainfall reduction occurs from May to October, outside of the mature South American monsoon (SAM) season. This dry season response is the combined effect of a more rapid warming of the tropical North Atlantic relative to the south, and warm SSTAs in the tropical east Pacific. Conversely, a weak enhancement of mature SAM season rainfall in response to Atlantic SST change is suppressed by the atmospheric response to Pacific SST. This net wet season response is sufficient to prevent dry season soil moisture deficits from being recharged through the SAM season, leading to a perennial soil moisture reduction and an associated 30% reduction in annual Amazon Basin net primary productivity (NPP). A further 23% NPP reduction occurs in response to a 3.5 degrees C warmer air temperature associated with a global mean SST warming.     

Rethinking species' ability to cope with rapid climate change

Ongoing climate change is assumed to be exceptional because of its unprecedented velocity. However, new geophysical research suggests that dramatic climatic changes during the Late Pleistocene occurred extremely rapid, over just a few years. These abrupt climatic changes may have been even faster than contemporary ones, but relatively few continent‐wide extinctions of species have been documented for these periods. This raises questions about the ability of extant species to adapt to ongoing climate change. We propose that the advances in geophysical research challenge current views about species' ability to cope with climate change, and that lessons must be learned for modelling future impacts of climate change on species.     

Community and ecosystem responses to recent climate change

There is ample evidence for ecological responses to recent climate change. Most studies to date have concentrated on the effects of climate change on individuals and species, with particular emphasis on the effects on phenology and physiology of organisms as well as changes in the distribution and range shifts of species. However, responses by individual species to climate change are not isolated; they are connected through interactions with others at the same or adjacent trophic levels. Also from this more complex perspective, recent case studies have emphasized evidence on the effects of climate change on biotic interactions and ecosystem services. This review highlights the ‘knowns’ but also ‘unknowns’ resulting from recent climate impact studies and reveals limitations of (linear) extrapolations from recent climate-induced responses of species to expected trends and magnitudes of future climate change. Hence, there is need not only to continue to focus on the impacts of climate change on the actors in ecological networks but also and more intensively to focus on the linkages between them, and to acknowledge that biotic interactions and feedback processes lead to highly complex, nonlinear and sometimes abrupt responses.     

Dynamic and complex microclimate responses to warming and grazing manipulations

Synthesis efforts that identify patterns of ecosystem response to a suite of warming manipulations can make important contributions to climate change science. However, cross‐study comparisons are impeded by the paucity of detailed analyses of how passive warming and other manipulations affect microclimate. Here we document the independent and combined effects of a common passive warming manipulation, open‐top chambers (OTCs), and a simulated widespread land use, clipping, on microclimate on the Tibetan Plateau. OTCs consistently elevated growing season averaged mean daily air temperature by 1.0–2.0°C, maximum daily air temperature by 2.1–7.3°C and the diurnal air temperature range by 1.9–6.5°C, with mixed effects on minimum daily air temperature, and mean daily soil temperature and moisture. These OTC effects on microclimate differ from reported effects of a common active warming method, infrared heating, which has more consistent effects on soil than on air temperature. There were significant interannual and intragrowing season differences in OTC effects on microclimate. For example, while OTCs had mixed effects on growing season averaged soil temperatures, OTCs consistently elevated soil temperature by approximately 1.0°C early in the growing season. Nonadditive interactions between OTCs and clipping were also present: OTCs in clipped plots generally elevated air and soil temperatures more than OTCs in nonclipped plots. Moreover, site factors dynamically interacted with microclimate and with the efficacy of the OTC manipulations. These findings highlight the need to understand differential microclimate effects between warming methods, within warming method across ecosystem sites, within warming method crossed with other treatments, and within sites over various timescales. Methods, sites and scales are potential explanatory variables and covariables in climate warming experiments. Consideration of this variability among and between experimental warming studies will lead to greater understanding and better prediction of ecosystem response to anthropogenic climate warming.     

Idiosyncratic species effects confound size-based predictions of responses to climate change

Understanding and predicting the consequences of warming for complex ecosystems and indeed individual species remains a major ecological challenge. Here, we investigated the effect of increased seawater temperatures on the metabolic and consumption rates of five distinct marine species. The experimental species reflected different trophic positions within a typical benthic East Atlantic food web, and included a herbivorous gastropod, a scavenging decapod, a predatory echinoderm, a decapod and a benthic-feeding fish. We examined the metabolism–body mass and consumption–body mass scaling for each species, and assessed changes in their consumption efficiencies. Our results indicate that body mass and temperature effects on metabolism were inconsistent across species and that some species were unable to meet metabolic demand at higher temperatures, thus highlighting the vulnerability of individual species to warming. While body size explains a large proportion of the variation in species'' physiological responses to warming, it is clear that idiosyncratic species responses, irrespective of body size, complicate predictions of population and ecosystem level response to future scenarios of climate change.     

Keeping up with a warming world; assessing the rate of adaptation to climate change

The pivotal question in the debate on the ecological effects of climate change is whether species will be able to adapt fast enough to keep up with their changing environment. If we establish the maximal rate of adaptation, this will set an upper limit to the rate at which temperatures can increase without loss of biodiversity.The rate of adaptation will primarily be set by the rate of microevolution since (i) phenotypic plasticity alone is not sufficient as reaction norms will no longer be adaptive and hence microevolution on the reaction norm is needed, (ii) learning will be favourable to the individual but cannot be passed on to the next generations, (iii) maternal effects may play a role but, as with other forms of phenotypic plasticity, the response of offspring to the maternal cues will no longer be adaptive in a changing environment, and (iv) adaptation via immigration of individuals with genotypes adapted to warmer environments also involves microevolution as these genotypes are better adapted in terms of temperature, but not in terms of, for instance, photoperiod.Long-term studies on wild populations with individually known animals play an essential role in detecting and understanding the temporal trends in life-history traits, and to estimate the heritability of, and selection pressures on, life-history traits. However, additional measurements on other trophic levels and on the mechanisms underlying phenotypic plasticity are needed to predict the rate of microevolution, especially under changing conditions.Using this knowledge on heritability of, and selection on, life-history traits, in combination with climate scenarios, we will be able to predict the rate of adaptation for different climate scenarios. The final step is to use ecoevolutionary dynamical models to make the link to population viability and from there to biodiversity loss for those scenarios where the rate of adaptation is insufficient.     

Limited potential for adaptation to climate change in a broadly distributed marine crustacean

The extent to which acclimation and genetic adaptation might buffer natural populations against climate change is largely unknown. Most models predicting biological responses to environmental change assume that species' climatic envelopes are homogeneous both in space and time. Although recent discussions have questioned this assumption, few empirical studies have characterized intraspecific patterns of genetic variation in traits directly related to environmental tolerance limits. We test the extent of such variation in the broadly distributed tidepool copepod Tigriopus californicus using laboratory rearing and selection experiments to quantify thermal tolerance and scope for adaptation in eight populations spanning more than 17° of latitude. Tigriopus californicus exhibit striking local adaptation to temperature, with less than 1 per cent of the total quantitative variance for thermal tolerance partitioned within populations. Moreover, heat-tolerant phenotypes observed in low-latitude populations cannot be achieved in high-latitude populations, either through acclimation or 10 generations of strong selection. Finally, in four populations there was no increase in thermal tolerance between generations 5 and 10 of selection, suggesting that standing variation had already been depleted. Thus, plasticity and adaptation appear to have limited capacity to buffer these isolated populations against further increases in temperature. Our results suggest that models assuming a uniform climatic envelope may greatly underestimate extinction risk in species with strong local adaptation.     

Reproductive and physiological responses to simulated climate warming for four subalpine species

* The carbon costs of reproduction were examined in four subalpine herbaceous plant species for which number and size of flowers respond differently under a long-term infrared warming experiment. * Instantaneous measurements of gas exchange and an integrative model were used to calculate whole-plant carbon budgets and reproductive effort (RE). * Of the two species for which flowering was reduced, only one (Delphinium nuttallianum) exhibited higher RE under warming. The other species (Erythronium grandiflorum) flowers earlier when freezing events under warming treatment could have damaged floral buds. Of the two species for which flowering rates were not reduced, one (Helianthella quinquenervis) had higher RE, while RE was unaffected for the other (Erigeron speciosus). Each of these different responses was the result of a different combination of changes in organ size and physiological rates in each of the species. * Results show that the magnitude and direction of responses to warming differ greatly among species. Such results demonstrate the importance of examining multiple species to understand the complex interactions among physiological and reproductive responses to climate change.     

Global assessment of coral bleaching and required rates of adaptation under climate change

Elevated ocean temperatures can cause coral bleaching, the loss of colour from reef‐building corals because of a breakdown of the symbiosis with the dinoflagellate Symbiodinium. Recent studies have warned that global climate change could increase the frequency of coral bleaching and threaten the long‐term viability of coral reefs. These assertions are based on projecting the coarse output from atmosphere–ocean general circulation models (GCMs) to the local conditions around representative coral reefs. Here, we conduct the first comprehensive global assessment of coral bleaching under climate change by adapting the NOAA Coral Reef Watch bleaching prediction method to the output of a low‐ and high‐climate sensitivity GCM. First, we develop and test algorithms for predicting mass coral bleaching with GCM‐resolution sea surface temperatures for thousands of coral reefs, using a global coral reef map and 1985–2002 bleaching prediction data. We then use the algorithms to determine the frequency of coral bleaching and required thermal adaptation by corals and their endosymbionts under two different emissions scenarios. The results indicate that bleaching could become an annual or biannual event for the vast majority of the world's coral reefs in the next 30–50 years without an increase in thermal tolerance of 0.2–1.0°C per decade. The geographic variability in required thermal adaptation found in each model and emissions scenario suggests that coral reefs in some regions, like Micronesia and western Polynesia, may be particularly vulnerable to climate change. Advances in modelling and monitoring will refine the forecast for individual reefs, but this assessment concludes that the global prognosis is unlikely to change without an accelerated effort to stabilize atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations.     

The response of Alaskan arctic tundra to experimental warming: differences between short- and long-term responses

Global climate models predict continued rapid warming for most of the Arctic throughout the next century. To further understand the response of arctic tundra to climate warming, four sites in northern Alaska were warmed for five to seven consecutive growing seasons using open‐top chambers. Sites were located in dry heath and wet meadow communities near Barrow (71°18′N, 156°40′W) and Atqasuk (70°29′N, 157°25′W). Change in plant community composition was measured using a point frame method. During the period of observation, species richness declined in control plots by up to 2.7 species plot^?1. Responses to warming varied by site but similar trends included increased canopy height (?0.1 to 2.3 cm) and relative cover of standing dead plant matter (1.5–6.0%) and graminoids (1.8–5.8%) and decreased species diversity (0.1–1.7 species plot^?1) and relative cover of lichens (0.2–9.1%) and bryophytes (1.4–4.6%) (parentheses enclose the range of average values for the sites). The response to warming was separated into an initial short‐term response assessed after two growing seasons of warming and a secondary longer‐term response assessed after an additional three to five growing seasons of warming. The initial responses to warming were similar in the four sites, while the secondary responses varied by site. The response to warming was greater at Barrow than Atqasuk because of a greater initial response at Barrow. However, the long‐term response to warming was projected to be greater at Atqasuk because of a greater secondary response at Atqasuk. These findings show that predictions of vegetation change due to climate warming based on manipulative experiments will differ depending on both the duration and plant community on which the study focuses.     

Effects of warming and nutrients on sediment community respiration in shallow lakes: an outdoor mesocosm experiment

1. Climate warming is expected to change respiration in shallow lakes but to an extent that depends on nutrient state. 2. We measured sediment respiration (SR) over the season in the dark on intact sediment cores taken from a series of flow‐through, heated and unheated, nutrient‐enriched and unenriched mesocosms. The natural seasonal temperature cycle ranged from 2 to 20 °C in the unheated mesocosms. In the heated mesocosms, the temperature was raised 4–6 °C above ambient temperatures, depending on season, following the A2 climate change scenario downscaled to the local position of the mesocosms, but enlarged by 50%. We further measured ecosystem respiration (ER) in the mesocosms based on semi‐continuous oxygen measurements. 3. SR changed over the season and was approximately ten times higher in summer than in winter. SR showed no clear response to warming in the nutrient‐enriched treatment, while it increased with warming in the unenriched mesocosms which also had lower fish densities. 4. ER was not affected by artificial warming or nutrient enrichment, but it was ten times higher in summer than in winter. 5. SR contributed 24–32% to ER. The SR:ER ratio was generally stimulated by warming and was higher in winter than in summer, especially in the nutrient‐enriched mesocosms. 6. Our results indicate that climate warming may lead to higher SR, especially in clear, macrophyte‐dominated systems. Moreover, the contribution of SR to ER will increase with higher temperatures, but decrease as the winters get shorter.     

Intraspecific responses to climate in Pinus sylvestris

Abstract Five population-specific response functions were developed from quadratic models for 110 populations of Pinus sylvestris growing at 47 planting sites in Eurasia and North America. The functions predict 13 year height from climate: degree-days > 5 °C; mean annual temperature; degree-days < 0 °C; summer-winter temperature differential; and a moisture index, the ratio of degree-days > 5 °C to mean annual precipitation. Validation of the response functions with two sets of independent data produced for all functions statistically significant simple correlations with coefficients as high as 0.81 between actual and predicted heights. The response functions described the widely different growth potentials typical of natural populations and demonstrated that these growth potentials have different climatic optima. Populations nonetheless tend to inhabit climates colder than their optima, with the disparity between the optimal and inhabited climates becoming greater as the climate becomes more severe. When driven by a global warming scenario of the Hadley Center, the functions described short-term physiologic and long-term evolutionary effects that were geographically complex. The short-term effects should be negative in the warmest climates but strongly positive in the coldest. Long-term effects eventually should ameliorate the negative short-term impacts, enhance the positive, and in time, substantially increase productivity throughout most of the contemporary pine forests of Eurasia. Realizing the long-term gains will require redistribution of genotypes across the landscape, a process that should take up to 13 generations and therefore many years.