Predicting the potential distribution and forest impact of the invasive species Cydalima perspectalis in Europe

Invasive species have considerably increased in recent decades due to direct and indirect effects of ever‐increasing international trade rates and new climate conditions derived from global change. We need to better understand how the dynamics of early species invasions develop and how these result in impacts on the invaded ecosystems. Here we studied the distribution and severe defoliation processes of the box tree moth (Cydalima perspectalis W.), a tree defoliator insect native to Asia and invasive in Europe since 2007, through the combination of species distribution models based on climate and landscape composition information. The results showed that the combination of data from the native and the invaded areas was the most effective methodology for the appropriate invasive species modeling. The species was not influenced by overall landscape factors, but only by the presence of its host plant, dispersal capacity, and climate suitability. Such climate suitability was described by low precipitation seasonality and minimum annual temperatures around 0°C, defining a continentality effect throughout the territory. We emphasize the need of studying distribution and severe defoliation processes separately because we identified that climate suitability was slightly involved in limiting species spread processes but strongly constrained ecosystem impact in terms of defoliation before the species reaches equilibrium with the new environment. New studies on habitat recovery after disturbance, ecological consequences of such impact, and community dynamics in a context of climate change are required for a better understanding of this invasive species.     

Climate change as a long-term stressor for the fisheries of the Laurentian Great Lakes of North America

The Laurentian Great Lakes of North America provide valuable ecosystem services, including fisheries, to the surrounding population. Given the prevalence of other anthropogenic stressors that have historically affected the fisheries of the Great Lakes (e.g., eutrophication, invasive species, overfishing), climate change is often viewed as a long-term stressor and, subsequently, may not always be prioritized by managers and researchers. However, climate change has the potential to negatively affect fish and fisheries in the Great Lakes through its influence on habitat. In this paper, we (1) summarize projected changes in climate and fish habitat in the Great Lakes; (2) summarize fish responses to climate change in the Great Lakes; (3) describe key interactions between climate change and other stressors relevant to Great Lakes fish, and (4) summarize how climate change can be incorporated into fisheries management. In general, fish habitat is projected to be characterized by warmer temperatures throughout the water column, less ice cover, longer periods of stratification, and more frequent and widespread periods of bottom hypoxia in productive areas of the Great Lakes. Based solely on thermal habitat, fish populations theoretically could experience prolonged optimal growth environment within a changing climate, however, models that assess physical habitat influences at specific life stages convey a more complex picture. Looking at specific interactions with other stressors, climate change may exacerbate the negative impacts of both eutrophication and invasive species for fish habitat in the Great Lakes. Although expanding monitoring and research to consider climate change interactions with currently studied stressors, may offer managers the best opportunity to keep the valuable Great Lakes fisheries sustainable, this expansion is globally applicable for large lake ecosystem dealing with multiple stressors in the face of continued human-driven changes.     

Different climatic envelopes among invasive populations may lead to underestimations of current and future biological invasions

Aim We explore the impact of calibrating ecological niche models (ENMs) using (1) native range (NR) data versus (2) entire range (ER) data (native and invasive) on projections of current and future distributions of three Hieracium species. Location H. aurantiacum, H. murorum and H. pilosella are native to Europe and invasive in Australia, New Zealand and North America. Methods Differences among the native and invasive realized climatic niches of each species were quantified. Eight ENMs in BIOMOD were calibrated with (1) NR and (2) ER data. Current European, North American and Australian distributions were projected. Future Australian distributions were modelled using four climate change scenarios for 2030. Results The invasive climatic niche of H. murorum is primarily a subset of that expressed in its native range. Invasive populations of H. aurantiacum and H. pilosella occupy different climatic niches to those realized in their native ranges. Furthermore, geographically separate invasive populations of these two species have distinct climatic niches. ENMs calibrated on the realized niche of native regions projected smaller distributions than models incorporating data from species’ entire ranges, and failed to correctly predict many known invasive populations. Under future climate scenarios, projected distributions decreased by similar percentages, regardless of the data used to calibrate ENMs; however, the overall sizes of projected distributions varied substantially. Main conclusions This study provides quantitative evidence that invasive populations of Hieracium species can occur in areas with different climatic conditions than experienced in their native ranges. For these, and similar species, calibration of ENMs based on NR data only will misrepresent their potential invasive distribution. These errors will propagate when estimating climate change impacts. Thus, incorporating data from species’ entire distributions may result in a more thorough assessment of current and future ranges, and provides a closer approximation of the elusive fundamental niche.     

Increasing potential risk of a global aquatic invader in Europe in contrast to other continents under future climate change

Background

Anthropogenically-induced climate change can alter the current climatic habitat of non-native species and can have complex effects on potentially invasive species. Predictions of the potential distributions of invasive species under climate change will provide critical information for future conservation and management strategies. Aquatic ecosystems are particularly vulnerable to invasive species and climate change, but the effect of climate change on invasive species distributions has been rather neglected, especially for notorious global invaders.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We used ecological niche models (ENMs) to assess the risks and opportunities that climate change presents for the red swamp crayfish (Procambarus clarkii), which is a worldwide aquatic invasive species. Linking the factors of climate, topography, habitat and human influence, we developed predictive models incorporating both native and non-native distribution data of the crayfish to identify present areas of potential distribution and project the effects of future climate change based on a consensus-forecast approach combining the CCCMA and HADCM3 climate models under two emission scenarios (A2a and B2a) by 2050. The minimum temperature from the coldest month, the human footprint and precipitation of the driest quarter contributed most to the species distribution models. Under both the A2a and B2a scenarios, P. clarkii shifted to higher latitudes in continents of both the northern and southern hemispheres. However, the effect of climate change varied considerately among continents with an expanding potential in Europe and contracting changes in others.

Conclusions/Significance

Our findings are the first to predict the impact of climate change on the future distribution of a globally invasive aquatic species. We confirmed the complexities of the likely effects of climate change on the potential distribution of globally invasive species, and it is extremely important to develop wide-ranging and effective control measures according to predicted geographical shifts and changes.     

Redistribution of the lizardfish Harpadon nehereus in coastal waters of China due to climate change

Climate change has the potential to greatly alter species distributions and threatens biodiversity in marine ecosystems. Mapping changes in species distribution patterns under climate change will help facilitate management strategies to maintain ecosystem structure and function. The lizardfish Harpadon nehereus is an aggressive predator that has experienced rapid population growth along the coast of China in recent decades, compressing the ecological niches of other marine species and disrupting food webs. If this species’ range is shifting due to climate change, it could further impact the integrity of ecological communities. To map the distribution of H. nehereus, we developed an ensemble species distribution model and projected the present and future habitat suitability in Chinese coastal waters. Annual mean benthic water temperature was identified as the most important variable affecting the projected distribution of H. nehereus, followed by water depth and salinity. Currently suitable habitats are along the coast from Guangxi Province to the southern Jiangsu Province. As climate changes, the southern portion of its distribution is predicted to recede with habitat losses, and the overall suitable habitat will shift northward. To avoid the potential impacts of H. nehereus redistribution, precautionary management based on species distribution modeling would help to maintain healthy marine ecosystems in the newly invaded areas.

     

Next-Generation Invaders? Hotspots for Naturalised Sleeper Weeds in Australia under Future Climates

Naturalised, but not yet invasive plants, pose a nascent threat to biodiversity. As climate regimes continue to change, it is likely that a new suite of invaders will emerge from the established pool of naturalised plants. Pre-emptive management of locations that may be most suitable for a large number of potentially invasive plants will help to target monitoring, and is vital for effective control. We used species distribution models (SDM) and invasion-hotspot analysis to determine where in Australia suitable habitat may occur for 292 naturalised plants. SDMs were built in MaxEnt using both climate and soil variables for current baseline conditions. Modelled relationships were projected onto two Representative Concentration Pathways for future climates (RCP 4.5 and 8.5), based on seven global climate models, for two time periods (2035, 2065). Model outputs for each of the 292 species were then aggregated into single ‘hotspot’ maps at two scales: continental, and for each of Australia’s 37 ecoregions. Across Australia, areas in the south-east and south-west corners of the continent were identified as potential hotspots for naturalised plants under current and future climates. These regions provided suitable habitat for 288 and 239 species respectively under baseline climates. The areal extent of the continental hotspot was projected to decrease by 8.8% under climates for 2035, and by a further 5.2% by 2065. A similar pattern of hotspot contraction under future climates was seen for the majority of ecoregions examined. However, two ecoregions - Tasmanian temperate forests and Australian Alps montane grasslands - showed increases in the areal extent of hotspots of >45% under climate scenarios for 2065. The alpine ecoregion also had an increase in the number of naturalised plant species with abiotically suitable habitat under future climate scenarios, indicating that this area may be particularly vulnerable to future incursions by naturalised plants.     

Large-Scale Range Collapse of Hawaiian Forest Birds under Climate Change and the Need 21st Century Conservation Options

Hawaiian forest birds serve as an ideal group to explore the extent of climate change impacts on at-risk species. Avian malaria constrains many remaining Hawaiian forest bird species to high elevations where temperatures are too cool for malaria’s life cycle and its principal mosquito vector. The impact of climate change on Hawaiian forest birds has been a recent focus of Hawaiian conservation biology, and has centered on the links between climate and avian malaria. To elucidate the differential impacts of projected climate shifts on species with known varying niches, disease resistance and tolerance, we use a comprehensive database of species sightings, regional climate projections and ensemble distribution models to project distribution shifts for all Hawaiian forest bird species. We illustrate that, under a likely scenario of continued disease-driven distribution limitation, all 10 species with highly reliable models (mostly narrow-ranged, single-island endemics) are expected to lose >50% of their range by 2100. Of those, three are expected to lose all range and three others are expected to lose >90% of their range. Projected range loss was smaller for several of the more widespread species; however improved data and models are necessary to refine future projections. Like other at-risk species, Hawaiian forest birds have specific habitat requirements that limit the possibility of range expansion for most species, as projected expansion is frequently in areas where forest habitat is presently not available (such as recent lava flows). Given the large projected range losses for all species, protecting high elevation forest alone is not an adequate long-term strategy for many species under climate change. We describe the types of additional conservation actions practitioners will likely need to consider, while providing results to help with such considerations.     

Testing alien plant distribution and habitat invasibility in mountain ecosystems: growth form matters

Most studies focused on understanding habitat invasibility use the current levels of invasion as a direct proxy of habitat invasibility. This has shown to be biased by the influence of propagule pressure and climate. We suggest that plant growth forms need to be considered as an extra factor, as habitat preferences might not be equal for all potential invaders. We test the influence of propagule pressure, climate and habitat characteristics on the current level of invasion and habitat invasibility, specifically addressing whether an analysis focused on growth forms evidence different patterns than the total pool of alien species. We used 499 floristic vegetation plots located in Córdoba Mountains. We used proportional alien richness of the total pool and for each growth form as response variables. We identified models that best explained current levels of invasion. We used the residuals of the models with propagule pressure and climate as the response variable. Then, we performed linear models to test the relationship between habitat characteristics and the residuals of the models. We found different drivers of current alien distribution patterns for the total pool and each growth form. Habitat invasibility was not equal when quantified for the total pool or growth forms. Shrublands and outcrops were recorded as less susceptible to woody invasion, while grasslands and native woodlands were resistant to the invasion of grasses and none habitat type was resistant to the invasion of forbs. We highlight that the current level of invasion and habitat invasibility are highly growth form dependent.     

Forecasting the combined effects of future climate and land use change on the suitable habitat of Davidia involucrata Baill

Accurately predicting the future distribution of species is crucial for understanding how species will response to global environmental change and for evaluating the effectiveness of current protected areas (PAs). Here, we assessed the effect of climate and land use change on the projected suitable habitats of Davidia involucrata Baill under different future scenarios using the following two types of models: (a) only climate covariates (climate SDMs) and (b) climate and land use covariates (full SDMs). We found that full SDMs perform significantly better than climate SDMs in terms of both AUC (p < .001) and TSS (p < .001) and also projected more suitable habitat than climate SDMs both in the whole study area and in its current suitable range, although D. involucrate is predicted to loss at least 26.96% of its suitable area under all future scenarios. Similarly, we found that these range contractions projected by climate SDMs would negate the effectiveness of current PAs to a greater extent relative to full SDMs. These results suggest that although D. involucrate is extremely vulnerability to future climate change, conservation intervention to manage habitat may be an effective option to offset some of the negative effects of a changing climate on D. involucrate and can improve the effectiveness of current PAs. Overall, this study highlights the necessity of integrating climate and land use change to project the future distribution of species.     

Quantifying the potential effects of climate change and the invasion of smallmouth bass on native lake trout populations across Canadian lakes

Climate change and invasive species are two stressors that should have large impacts on native species in aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems. We quantify and integrate the effects of climate change and the establishment of an invasive species (smallmouth bass Micropterus dolomieu ) on native lake trout Salvelinus namaycush populations. We assembled a dataset of almost 22 000 Canadian lakes that contained information on fish communities, lake morphologies, and geography. We examined the pelagic-benthic and littoral forage fish community available to lake trout populations across three lake size classes in these aquatic ecosystems. Due to the decreased presence of alternate prey resources, lake trout populations residing in smaller lakes are more vulnerable to the effects of smallmouth bass establishment. A detailed spatially and temporally explicit approach to assess smallmouth bass invasion risk in Ontario lakes suggests that the number of Ontario lakes with vulnerable lake trout populations could increase from 118 (~1%) to 1612 (~20%) by 2050 following projected climate warming. In addition, we identified nearly 9700 lake trout populations in Canada threatened by 2100, by the potential range expansion of smallmouth bass. Our study provides an integration of two major stressors of ecosystems, namely climate change and invasive species, by considering climate-change scenarios, dispersal rates of invasive species, and inter-specific biotic interactions.     

Range reshuffling: Climate change,invasive species,and the case of Nothofagus forests in Aotearoa New Zealand

Aim

The impact of climate change on forest biodiversity and ecosystem services will be partly determined by the relative fortunes of invasive and native forest trees under future conditions. Aotearoa New Zealand has high conservation value native forests and one of the world's worst invasive tree problems. We assess the relative effects of habitat redistribution on native Nothofagus and invasive conifer (Pinaceae) species in New Zealand as a case study on the compounding impacts of climate change and tree invasions.

Location

Aotearoa New Zealand.

Methods

We use species distribution models (SDMs) to predict the current and future distribution of habitat for five native Nothofagus species and 13 invasive conifer species under two 2070 climate scenarios. We calculate habitat loss/gain for all species and examine overlap between the invasive and native species now and in future.

Results

Most species will lose habitat overall. The native species saw large changes in the distribution of habitat with extensive losses in North Island and gains mostly in South Island. Concerningly, we found that most new habitat for Nothofagus was also suitable for at least one invasive species. However, there were refugia for the native species in the wetter parts of the climate space.

Main Conclusion

If the predicted changes in habitat distribution translate to shifts in forest distribution, it would cause widespread ecological disruption. We discuss how acclimation, adaptation and biotic interactions may prevent/delay some changes. But we also highlight that the poor establishment capacity of Nothofagus, and the contrasting ability of the conifers to invade, will present persistent conservation challenges in areas of both new habitat and forest retreat. Pinaceae are problematic invaders globally, and our results highlight that control of invasions and active native forest restoration will likely be key to managing forest biodiversity under future climates.     

Distribution patterns of alien invasive plants and their influences on native plants of Hainan Island

 以国家农业部指定的20种恶性入侵植物为目的种, 在海南岛开展其分布特征与入侵强度的调查研究, 重点研究了陆域环境中6种广布入侵植物——飞机草(Chromolaena odorata)、假臭草(Praxelis clematidea)、含羞草(Mimosa pudica)、苏门白酒草(Conyza sumatrensis)、三裂叶蟛蜞菊(Wedelia trilobata)、马缨丹(Lantana camara)在7种生态系统(天然次生林、农田、村落、种植园、林缘、弃耕地、草地)中的入侵频率及入侵植物对本地植物的影响。结果表明: 1)海南岛有恶性入侵植物11种, 占调查目的种总数的55.0%。2)海南岛的东北、西南部分布的入侵植物种数较多, 东南部次之, 中部地区最少。3) 6种入侵植物的整体入侵强度为: 假臭草>飞机草>含羞草>三裂叶蟛蜞菊>马缨丹>苏门白酒草; 苏门白酒草、马缨丹在不同生态系统中的入侵频率无显著差异; 而假臭草在种植园及弃耕地, 含羞草在农田, 三裂叶蟛蜞菊在种植园生态系统中的入侵频率均显著高于其他生境。4)种植园、弃耕地和农田生态系统是植物入侵的主要生境类型, 而林缘和天然次生林生态系统均对植物入侵表现出抵御作用。5)植物入侵对当地植物多样性的影响存在正、负及无关联效应, 并主要影响群落中的草本植物功能群; 样地中入侵植物盖度总值与本地植物平均种数在种植园、农田和村落生态系统中无相关性, 在林缘和弃耕地生态系统中, 两者呈显著负相关关系; 而在草地生态系统中, 在一定盖度范围内, 入侵植物盖度总值与本地植物平均种数呈显著正相关关系。     

Variation in Herbivore Damage to Invasive and Native Woody Plant Species in Open Forest Vegetation on Mahé, Seychelles

Enemy release of introduced plants and variation in herbivore pressure in relation to community diversity are presently discussed as factors that affect plant species invasiveness or habitat invasibility. So far few data are available on this topic and the results are inconclusive. We compared leaf herbivory between native and invasive woody plants on Mahé, the main island of the tropical Seychelles. We further investigated variation in leaf herbivory on three abundant invasive species along an altitudinal gradient (50–550 m a.s.l.). The median percentage of leaves affected by herbivores was significantly higher in native species (50%) than in invasive species (27%). In addition, the species suffering from the highest leaf area loss were native to the Seychelles. These results are consistent with the enemy release hypothesis (ERH). While the invasive species showed significant and mostly consistent variation in the amount of leaf damage between sites, this variation was not related to general altitudinal trends in diversity but rather to local variation in habitat structure and diversity. Our results indicate that in the Seychelles invasive woody plants profit from herbivore release relative to the native species and that the amount of herbivory, and therefore its effect on species invasiveness or habitat invasibility, may be dependent on local community structure and composition.     

Landscape‐scale determinants of non‐native fish communities

Aim Predicting and preventing invasions depends on knowledge of the factors that make ecosystems susceptible to invasion. Current studies generally rely on non‐native species richness (NNSR) as the sole measure of ecosystem invasibility; however, species identity is a critical consideration, given that different ecosystems may have environmental characteristics suitable to different species. Our aim was to examine whether non‐native freshwater fish community composition was related to ecosystem characteristics at the landscape scale. Location United States. Methods We described spatial patterns in non‐native freshwater fish communities among watersheds in the Mid‐Atlantic region of the United States based on records of establishment in the U.S. Geological Survey’s Nonindigenous Aquatic Species Database. We described general relationships between non‐native species and ecosystem characteristics using canonical correspondence analysis. We clustered watersheds by non‐native fish community and described differences among clusters using indicator species analysis. We then assessed whether non‐native communities could be predicted from ecosystem characteristics using random forest analysis and predicted non‐native communities for uninvaded watersheds. We estimated which ecosystem characteristics were most important for predicting non‐native communities using conditional inference trees. Results We identified four non‐native fish communities, each with distinct indicator species. Non‐native communities were predicted based on ecosystem characteristics with an accuracy of 80.6%, with temperature as the most important variable. Relatively uninvaded watersheds were predicted to be invasible by the most diverse non‐native community. Main conclusions Non‐native species identity is an important consideration when assessing ecosystem invasibility. NNSR alone is an insufficient measure of invasibility because ecosystems with equal NNSR may not be equally invasible by the same species. Our findings can help improve predictions of future invasions and focus management and policy decisions on particular species in highly invasible ecosystems.     

Regional analysis of the impacts of climate change on cheatgrass invasion shows potential risk and opportunity

Interactions between climate change and non-native invasive species may combine to increase invasion risk to native ecosystems. Changing climate creates risk as new terrain becomes climatically suitable for invasion. However, climate change may also create opportunities for ecosystem restoration on invaded lands that become climatically unsuitable for invasive species. Here, I develop a bioclimatic envelope model for cheatgrass ( Bromus tectorum ), a non-native invasive grass in the western US, based on its invaded distribution. The bioclimatic envelope model is based on the Mahalanobis distance using the climate variables that best constrain the species' distribution. Of the precipitation and temperature variables measured, the best predictors of cheatgrass are summer, annual, and spring precipitation, followed by winter temperature. I perform a sensitivity analysis on potential cheatgrass distributions using the projections of 10 commonly used atmosphere–ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) for 2100. The AOGCM projections for precipitation vary considerably, increasing uncertainty in the assessment of invasion risk. Decreased precipitation, particularly in the summer, causes an expansion of suitable land area by up to 45%, elevating invasion risk in parts of Montana, Wyoming, Utah, and Colorado. Conversely, increased precipitation reduces habitat by as much as 70%, decreasing invasion risk. The strong influence of precipitation conditions on this species' distribution suggests that relying on temperature change alone to project future change in plant distributions may be inadequate. A sensitivity analysis provides a framework for identifying key climate variables that may limit invasion, and for assessing invasion risk and restoration opportunities with climate change.     

Moving forward in global‐change ecology: capitalizing on natural variability

Natural resources managers are being asked to follow practices that accommodate for the impact of climate change on the ecosystems they manage, while global‐ecosystems modelers aim to forecast future responses under different climate scenarios. However, the lack of scientific knowledge about short‐term ecosystem responses to climate change has made it difficult to define set conservation practices or to realistically inform ecosystem models. Until recently, the main goal for ecologists was to study the composition and structure of communities and their implications for ecosystem function, but due to the probable magnitude and irreversibility of climate‐change effects (species extinctions and loss of ecosystem function), a shorter term focus on responses of ecosystems to climate change is needed. We highlight several underutilized approaches for studying the ecological consequences of climate change that capitalize on the natural variability of the climate system at different temporal and spatial scales. For example, studying organismal responses to extreme climatic events can inform about the resilience of populations to global warming and contribute to the assessment of local extinctions. Translocation experiments and gene expression are particular useful to quantitate a species' acclimation potential to global warming. And studies along environmental gradients can guide habitat restoration and protection programs by identifying vulnerable species and sites. These approaches identify the processes and mechanisms underlying species acclimation to changing conditions, combine different analytical approaches, and can be used to improve forecasts of the short‐term impacts of climate change and thus inform conservation practices and ecosystem models in a meaningful way.     

Propagule pressure and native species richness effects drive invasibility in tropical dry forest seedling layers

Understanding the factors that encourage or inhibit plant invasions is vital to focusing limited invasive control efforts within areas where they are most practical and cost-effective. To extend the range of contexts in which invasibility is studied and aid the development of practical strategies to limit damaging plant invasions, we set out to test the relative importance of native species richness, native seedling density, and invasive propagule pressure, on the invasibility of artificial assemblages of naturally occurring tropical woody seedling communities. Our greenhouse mesocosms included a species pool of twelve trees and woody shrubs native to South Florida's tropical hardwood hammocks, and an increasingly prevalent noxious woody invader of this system, Ardisia elliptica. We found that invader propagule pressure was the single most important factor determining community invasibility. We also revealed a positive relationship between invasibility and native species richness in our polyculture mesocosms. Because A. elliptica biomass production significantly differed among different native monocultures and was not related to overyielding in native polycultures, we suggest that the effect of species richness on invasibility in this experiment was the result of sampling effects rather than a true effect of diversity.Three broad findings hold potential for application in preventing and controlling plant invasions, especially in the seedling layers of tropical dry forests: (1) effective invasive control efforts will likely benefit from measures to minimize propagule pressure; (2) managers might do well to prioritize invasive monitoring and removal efforts on the most diverse habitats within a management region; and (3) while more data are necessary to further understand our finding of a lack of association between productivity and invasibility, management regimes aimed at maximizing primary productivity might not increase invasibility, and in fact, strategies for controlling invasive plants via the management of ecosystem productivity may be ineffective.     

Vulnerability of mires under climate change: implications for nature conservation and climate change adaptation

Wetlands in general and mires in particular belong to the most important terrestrial carbon stocks globally. Mires (i.e. bogs, transition bogs and fens) are assumed to be especially vulnerable to climate change because they depend on specific, namely cool and humid, climatic conditions. In this paper, we use distribution data of the nine mire types to be found in Austria and habitat distribution models for four IPCC scenarios to evaluate climate change induced risks for mire ecosystems within the 21st century. We found that climatic factors substantially contribute to explain the current distribution of all nine Austrian mire ecosystem types. Summer temperature proved to be the most important predictor for the majority of mire ecosystems. Precipitation—mostly spring and summer precipitation sums—was influential for some mire ecosystem types which depend partly or entirely on ground water supply (e.g. fens). We found severe climate change induced risks for all mire ecosystems, with rain-fed bog ecosystems being most threatened. Differences between scenarios are moderate for the mid-21st century, but become more pronounced towards the end of the 21st century, with near total loss of climate space projected for some ecosystem types (bogs, quagmires) under severe climate change. Our results imply that even under minimum expected, i.e. inevitable climate change, climatic risks for mires in Austria will be considerable. Nevertheless, the pronounced differences in projected habitat loss between moderate and severe climate change scenarios indicate that limiting future warming will likely contribute to enhance long-term survival of mire ecosystems, and to reduce future greenhouse gas emissions from decomposing peat. Effectively stopping and reversing the deterioration of mire ecosystems caused by conventional threats can be regarded as a contribution to climate change mitigation. Because hydrologically intact mires are more resilient to climatic changes, this would also maintain the nature conservation value of mires, and help to reduce the severe climatic risks to which most Austrian mire ecosystems may be exposed in the 2nd half of the 21st century according to IPCC scenarios.     

Using Life Strategies to Explore the Vulnerability of Ecosystem Services to Invasion by Alien Plants

Invasive plants can have different effects on ecosystem functioning and on the provision of ecosystem services, with the direction and magnitude of such effects depending on the service and ecosystem being considered, but also on the life strategies of the invaders. Strategies can influence invasiveness, but also key processes of host ecosystems. To address the combined effects of these various factors, we developed a methodological framework to identify areas of possible conflict between ecosystem services and alien invasive plants, considering interactions between landscape invasibility and species invasiveness. Our framework combines multi-model inference, efficient techniques to map ecosystem services, and life strategies. The latter provides a functional link between invasion, functional changes, and potential provision of services by invaded ecosystems. The framework was applied to a region in Portugal, for which we could successfully predict current patterns of plant invasion, of ecosystem service provision, and of potential conflict between alien species richness and the potential provision of selected services. Potential conflicts were identified for all combinations of plant strategy and ecosystem service, with an emphasis on carbon sequestration, water regulation, and wood production. Lower levels of conflict were obtained between invasive plant strategies and the habitat for biodiversity supporting service. The value of the proposed framework for landscape management and planning is discussed with emphasis on anticipation of conflicts, mitigation of negative impacts, and facilitation of positive effects of plant invasions on ecosystems and their services.     

Will climate change promote future invasions?

Biological invasion is increasingly recognized as one of the greatest threats to biodiversity. Using ensemble forecasts from species distribution models to project future suitable areas of the 100 of the world's worst invasive species defined by the International Union for the Conservation of Nature, we show that both climate and land use changes will likely cause drastic species range shifts. Looking at potential spatial aggregation of invasive species, we identify three future hotspots of invasion in Europe, northeastern North America, and Oceania. We also emphasize that some regions could lose a significant number of invasive alien species, creating opportunities for ecosystem restoration. From the list of 100, scenarios of potential range distributions show a consistent shrinking for invasive amphibians and birds, while for aquatic and terrestrial invertebrates distributions are projected to substantially increase in most cases. Given the harmful impacts these invasive species currently have on ecosystems, these species will likely dramatically influence the future of biodiversity.