Incident HIV during Pregnancy and Postpartum and Risk of Mother-to-Child HIV Transmission: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Background

Women may have persistent risk of HIV acquisition during pregnancy and postpartum. Estimating risk of HIV during these periods is important to inform optimal prevention approaches. We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis to estimate maternal HIV incidence during pregnancy/postpartum and to compare mother-to-child HIV transmission (MTCT) risk among women with incident versus chronic infection.

Methods and Findings

We searched PubMed, Embase, and AIDS-related conference abstracts between January 1, 1980, and October 31, 2013, for articles and abstracts describing HIV acquisition during pregnancy/postpartum. The inclusion criterion was studies with data on recent HIV during pregnancy/postpartum. Random effects models were constructed to pool HIV incidence rates, cumulative HIV incidence, hazard ratios (HRs), or odds ratios (ORs) summarizing the association between pregnancy/postpartum status and HIV incidence, and MTCT risk and rates. Overall, 1,176 studies met the search criteria, of which 78 met the inclusion criterion, and 47 contributed data. Using data from 19 cohorts representing 22,803 total person-years, the pooled HIV incidence rate during pregnancy/postpartum was 3.8/100 person-years (95% CI 3.0–4.6): 4.7/100 person-years during pregnancy and 2.9/100 person-years postpartum (p = 0.18). Pooled cumulative HIV incidence was significantly higher in African than non-African countries (3.6% versus 0.3%, respectively; p<0.001). Risk of HIV was not significantly higher among pregnant (HR 1.3, 95% CI 0.5–2.1) or postpartum women (HR 1.1, 95% CI 0.6–1.6) than among non-pregnant/non-postpartum women in five studies with available data. In African cohorts, MTCT risk was significantly higher among women with incident versus chronic HIV infection in the postpartum period (OR 2.9, 95% CI 2.2–3.9) or in pregnancy/postpartum periods combined (OR 2.3, 95% CI 1.2–4.4). However, the small number of studies limited power to detect associations and sources of heterogeneity.

Conclusions

Pregnancy and the postpartum period are times of persistent HIV risk, at rates similar to “high risk” cohorts. MTCT risk was elevated among women with incident infections. Detection and prevention of incident HIV in pregnancy/postpartum should be prioritized, and is critical to decrease MTCT. Please see later in the article for the Editors'' Summary     

The Incidence of First Venous Thromboembolism in and around Pregnancy Using Linked Primary and Secondary Care Data: A Population Based Cohort Study from England and Comparative Meta-Analysis

Background

Recent linkage between primary and secondary care data has provided valuable information for studying heath outcomes that may initially present in different health care settings. The aim of this study was therefore, twofold: to use linked primary and secondary care data to determine an optimum definition for estimating the incidence of first VTE in and around pregnancy; and secondly to conduct a systematic literature review of studies on perinatal VTE incidence with the purpose of comparing our estimates.

Methods

We used primary care data from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD), which incorporates linkages to secondary care contained within Hospital Episode Statistics (HES) between 1997 and 2010 to estimate the incidence rate of VTE in the antepartum and postpartum period. We systematically searched the literature on the incidence of VTE during antepartum and postpartum periods and performed a meta-analysis to provide comparison.

Findings

Using combined CPRD and HES data and a restrictive VTE definition, the absolute rate during the antepartum period and first six weeks postpartum (early postpartum) were 99 (95%CI 85–116) and 468 (95%CI 391–561) per 100,000 person-years respectively. These were comparable to the pooled estimates from our meta-analysis (using studies after 2005) during the antepartum period (118/100,000 person-years) and early postpartum (424/100,000 person-years). When we used only secondary care data to identify VTE events, incidence was lower during the early postpartum period (308/100,000 person-years), whereas relying only on primary care data lead to lower incidence during the time around delivery, but higher rates during the postpartum period (558/100,000 person-years).

Conclusion

Using combined CPRD and HES data gives estimates of the risk of VTE in and around pregnancy that are comparable to the existing literature. It also provides more accurate estimation of the date of VTE diagnosis which will allow risk stratification during specific pregnancy and postpartum periods.     

Incidence of TB and HIV in Prospectively Followed Household Contacts of TB Index Patients in South Africa

Objective

To report the incidence rates of TB and HIV in household contacts of index patients diagnosed with TB.

Design

A prospective cohort study in the Matlosana sub-district of North West Province, South Africa.

Methods

Contacts of index TB patients received TB and HIV testing after counseling at their first household visit and were then followed up a year later, in 2010. TB or HIV diagnoses that occurred during the period were determined.

Results

For 2,377 household contacts, the overall observed TB incidence rate was 1.3 per 100 person years (95% CI 0.9–1.9/100py) and TB incidence for individuals who were HIV-infected and HIV seronegative at baseline was 5.4/100py (95% CI 2.9–9.0/100py) and 0.7/100py (95% CI 0.3–1.4/100py), respectively. The overall HIV incidence rate was 2.2/100py (95% CI 1.3–8.4/100py).

Conclusions

In the year following a household case finding visit when household contacts were tested for TB and HIV, the incidence rate of both active TB and HIV infection was found to be extremely high. Clearly, implementing proven strategies to prevent HIV acquisition and preventing TB transmission and progression to disease remains a priority in settings such as South Africa.     

High Rates of HIV Seroconversion in Pregnant Women and Low Reported Levels of HIV Testing among Male Partners in Southern Mozambique: Results from a Mixed Methods Study

Introduction

Prevention of acute HIV infections in pregnancy is required to achieve elimination of pediatric HIV. Identification and support for HIV negative pregnant women and their partners, particularly serodiscordant couples, are critical. A mixed method study done in Southern Mozambique estimated HIV incidence during pregnancy, associated risk factors and factors influencing partner''s HIV testing.

Methods

Between April 2008 and November 2011, a prospective cohort of 1230 HIV negative pregnant women was followed during pregnancy. A structured questionnaire, HIV testing, and collection of dried blood spots were done at 2–3 scheduled visits. HIV incidence rates were calculated by repeat HIV testing and risk factors assessed by Poisson regression. A qualitative study including 37 individual interviews with men, women, and nurses and 11 focus group discussions (n = 94) with men, women and grandmothers explored motivators and barriers to uptake of male HIV testing.

Results

HIV incidence rate was estimated at 4.28/100 women-years (95%CI: 2.33–7.16). Significant risk factors for HIV acquisition were early sexual debut (RR 3.79, 95%CI: 1.04–13.78, p = 0.04) and living in Maputo Province (RR 4.35, 95%CI: 0.97–19.45, p = 0.05). Nineteen percent of women reported that their partner had tested for HIV (93% knew the result with 8/213 indicating an HIV positive partner), 56% said their partner had not tested and 19% did not know their partner test status. Of the 14 seroconversions, only one reported being in a serodiscordant relationship. Fear of discrimination or stigma was reported as a key barrier to male HIV testing, while knowing the importance of getting tested and receiving care was the main motivator.

Conclusions

HIV incidence during pregnancy is high in Southern Mozambique, but knowledge of partners'' HIV status remains low. Knowledge of both partners'' HIV status is critical for maximal effectiveness of prevention and treatment services to reach elimination of pediatric HIV/AIDS.     

Nosocomial Infection in Adult Admissions with Hematological Malignancies Originating from Different Lineages: A Prospective Observational Study

Background

Nosocomial infection (NI) causes prolonged hospital stays, increased healthcare costs, and higher mortality among patients with hematological malignancies (HM). However, few studies have compared the incidence of NI according to the HM lineage.

Objective

To compare the incidence of NI according to the type of HM lineage, and identify the risk factors for NI.

Methods

This prospective observational study monitored adult patients with HM admitted for >48 hours to the General Hospital of the People''s Liberation Army during 2010–2013. Attack rates and incidences of NI were compared, and multivariable logistic regression was used to control for confounding effects.

Results

This study included 6,613 admissions from 1,922 patients. During these admissions, 1,023 acquired 1,136 NI episodes, with an attack rate of 15.47% and incidence of 9.6‰ (95% CI: 9.1–10.2). Higher rates and densities of NIs were observed among myeloid neoplasm (MN) admissions, compared to lymphoid neoplasm (LN) admissions (28.42% vs. 11.00%, P<0.001 and 11.4% vs. 8.4‰, P<0.001). NI attack rates in acute myeloid leukemia (AML) and myelodysplastic/myeloproliferative neoplasm (MDS/MPN) were higher than those in MDS (30.69% vs. 20.19%, P<0.001; 38.89% vs. 20.19%, P = 0.003). Attack rates in T/NK-cell neoplasm and B-cell neoplasm were higher than those in Hodgkin lymphoma (15.04% vs. 3.65%; 10.94% vs. 3.65%, P<0.001). Multivariable regression analysis indicated prolonged hospitalization, presence of central venous catheterization, neutropenia, current stem cell transplant, infection on admission, and old age were independently associated with higher NI incidence. After adjusting for these factors, MN admissions still had a higher risk of infection (odds ratio 1.34, 95% CI: 1.13–1.59, P<0.001).

Conclusion

Different NI attack rates were observed for HM from different lineages, with MN lineages having a higher attack rate and incidence than LN lineages. Special attention should be paid to MN admissions, especially AML and MDS/MPN admissions, to control NI incidence.     

Neonatal Gram Negative and Candida Sepsis Survival and Neurodevelopmental Outcome at the Corrected Age of 24 Months

Objectives

To evaluate the long term neurodevelopmental outcome of premature infants exposed to either gram- negative sepsis (GNS) or neonatal Candida sepsis (NCS), and to compare their outcome with premature infants without sepsis.

Methods

Historical cohort study in a population of infants born at <30 weeks gestation and admitted to the Neonatal Intensive Care Unit (NICU) of the Academic Medical Center in Amsterdam during the period 1997–2007. Outcome of infants exposed to GNS or NCS and 120 randomly chosen uncomplicated controls (UC) from the same NICU were compared. Clinical data during hospitalization and neurodevelopmental outcome data (clinical neurological status; Bayley –test results and vision/hearing test results) at the corrected age of 24 months were collected. An association model with sepsis as the central determinant of either good or adverse outcome (death or severe developmental delay) was made, corrected for confounders using multiple logistic regression analysis.

Results

Of 1362 patients, 55 suffered from GNS and 29 suffered from NCS; cumulative incidence 4.2% and 2.2%, respectively. During the follow-up period the mortality rate was 34% for both GNS and NCS and 5% for UC. The adjusted Odds Ratio (OR) [95% CI] for adverse outcome in the GNS group compared to the NCS group was 1.4 [0.4–4.9]. The adjusted ORs [95% CI] for adverse outcome in the GNS and NCS groups compared to the UC group were 4.8 [1.5–15.9] and 3.2 [0.7–14.7], respectively.

Conclusions

We found no statistically significant difference in outcome at the corrected age of 24 months between neonatal GNS and NCS cases. Suffering from either gram –negative or Candida sepsis increased the odds for adverse outcome compared with an uncomplicated neonatal period.     

DVT Surveillance Program in the ICU: Analysis of Cost-Effectiveness

Background

Venous Thrombo-embolism (VTE – Deep venous thrombosis (DVT) and/or pulmonary embolism (PE) – in traumatized patients causes significant morbidity and mortality. The current study evaluates the effectiveness of DVT surveillance in reducing PE, and performs a cost-effectiveness analysis.

Methods

All traumatized patients admitted to the adult ICU underwent twice weekly DVT surveillance by bilateral lower extremity venous Duplex examination (48-month surveillance period – SP). The rates of DVT and PE were recorded and compared to the rates observed in the 36-month pre-surveillance period (PSP). All patients in both periods received mechanical and pharmacologic prophylaxis unless contraindicated. Total costs – diagnostic, therapeutic and surveillance – for both periods were recorded and the incremental cost for each Quality Adjusted Life Year (QALY) gained was calculated.

Results

4234 patients were eligible (PSP – 1422 and SP – 2812). Rate of DVT in SP (2.8%) was significantly higher than in PSP (1.3%) – p<0.05, and rate of PE in SP (0.7%) was significantly lower than that in PSP (1.5%) – p<0.05. Logistic regression demonstrated that surveillance was an independent predictor of increased DVT detection (OR: 2.53 – CI: 1.462–4.378) and decreased PE incidence (OR: 0.487 – CI: 0.262–0.904). The incremental cost was $509,091/life saved in the base case, translating to $29,102/QALY gained. A sensitivity analysis over four of the parameters used in the model indicated that the incremental cost ranged from $18,661 to $48,821/QALY gained.

Conclusions

Surveillance of traumatized ICU patients increases DVT detection and reduces PE incidence. Costs in terms of QALY gained compares favorably with other interventions accepted by society.     

Major Radiodiagnostic Imaging in Pregnancy and the Risk of Childhood Malignancy: A Population-Based Cohort Study in Ontario

Background

The association between fetal exposure to major radiodiagnostic testing in pregnancy—computed tomography (CT) and radionuclide imaging—and the risk of childhood cancer is not established.

Methods and Findings

We completed a population-based study of 1.8 million maternal-child pairs in the province of Ontario, from 1991 to 2008. We used Ontario''s universal health care–linked administrative databases to identify all term obstetrical deliveries and newborn records, inpatient and outpatient major radiodiagnostic services, as well as all children with a malignancy after birth. There were 5,590 mothers exposed to major radiodiagnostic testing in pregnancy (3.0 per 1,000) and 1,829,927 mothers not exposed. The rate of radiodiagnostic testing increased from 1.1 to 6.3 per 1,000 pregnancies over the study period; about 73% of tests were CT scans. After a median duration of follow-up of 8.9 years, four childhood cancers arose in the exposed group (1.13 per 10,000 person-years) and 2,539 cancers in the unexposed group (1.56 per 10,000 person-years), a crude hazard ratio of 0.69 (95% confidence interval 0.26–1.82). After adjusting for maternal age, income quintile, urban status, and maternal cancer, as well as infant sex, chromosomal or congenital anomalies, and major radiodiagnostic test exposure after birth, the risk was essentially unchanged (hazard ratio 0.68, 95% confidence interval 0.25–1.80).

Conclusions

Although major radiodiagnostic testing is now performed in about 1 in 160 pregnancies in Ontario, the absolute annual risk of childhood malignancy following exposure in utero remains about 1 in 10,000. Since the upper confidence limit of the relative risk of malignancy may be as high as 1.8 times that of an unexposed pregnancy, we cannot exclude the possibility that fetal exposure to CT or radionuclide imaging is carcinogenic. Please see later in the article for the Editors'' Summary     

Impact of a Partial Smoke-Free Legislation on Myocardial Infarction Incidence,Mortality and Case-Fatality in a Population-Based Registry: The REGICOR Study

Background and Objective

Coronary heart disease (CHD) is the leading cause of death, and smoking its strongest modifiable risk factor. Our aim was to determine the impact of the Spanish 2006 partial smoke-free legislation on acute myocardial infarction (AMI) incidence, hospitalization and mortality rates, and 28-day case-fatality in Girona, Spain.

Methods

Using a population-based registry (the REGICOR Study), we compared population incidence, hospitalization, and mortality rates, and 28-day case-fatality in the pre- and post-ban periods (2002–2005 and 2006–2008, respectively) by binomial regression analysis adjusted for confounding factors. We also analyzed the ban''s impact on the outcomes of interest using the AMI definitions of the American Heart Association (AHA)/European Society of Cardiology (ESC) and the World Health Organization (WHO)-Monitoring trends and determinants in cardiovascular diseases (MONICA).

Results

In the post-ban period, AMI incidence and mortality rates significantly decreased (relative risk [RR] = 0.89; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.81–0.97 and RR = 0.82; 95% CI = 0.71–0.94, respectively). Incidence and mortality rates decreased in both sexes, especially in women, and in people aged 65–74 years. Former and non-smokers (passive smokers) showed diminished incidence rates. Implementation of the ban was not associated with AMI case-fatality. Models tended to be more significant with the WHO-MONICA than with the AHA/ESC definition.

Conclusions

The 2006 Spanish partial smoke-free legislation was associated with a decrease in population AMI incidence and mortality, particularly in women, in people aged 65–74 years, and in passive smokers. These results clarify the association between AMI mortality and the enactment of a partial smoke-free legislation and reinforce the effectiveness of smoking regulations in preventing CHD.     

Severe Morbidity According to Sex in the Era of Combined Antiretroviral Therapy: The ANRS CO3 Aquitaine Cohort

Objective

To describe trends and determinants of severe morbidity in HIV-infected women and men.

Design

A French prospective cohort of HIV-infected patients of both sexes and all transmission categories.

Methods

We used hospital admission data from January 2000 to December 2008. A severe morbid event (SME) was defined as a clinical event requiring hospitalization for ≥48 h, several events could be reported during hospitalization. Yearly incidence rates of SME were estimated and compared using Generalized Estimating Equations.

Results

Among 4,987 patients (27% women), followed for a median of 8.7 years, 1,473 (30%) were hospitalized (3,049 hospitalizations for 5,963 SME). The yearly incidence rate of hospitalization decreased in men, from 155 in 2000 to 80/1,000 person-years (PY) in 2008 and in women, from 125 to 71/1,000 PY, (p<0.001). This trend was observed for all SME except for hepatic events, stable in men (15 to 13/1,000 PY) and increasing in women (2.5 to 11.5), cardiovascular events increasing in men (6 to 10/1,000 PY) and in women (6 to 14) and non-AIDS non-hepatic malignancies increasing in men (4 to 7/1,000 PY) and stable in women (2.5). Intraveneous drug users, age >50 years, HIV RNA >10,000 copies, CD4 <500/mm³, AIDS stage, hepatitis C co-infection and cardiovascular risk factors (diabetes, high blood pressure, and tobacco use) were associated with SME.

Conclusions

HIV-infected individuals in care in France require less and less frequently hospitalization. Women are now presenting with severe hepatic and cardio-vascular events. Disparities in SME between men and women are primarily explained by different exposure patterns to risk factors. Women should be targeted to benefit cardiovascular prevention policies as well as men.     

The Incidence and Survival Rate of Population-Based Pancreatic Cancer Patients: Shanghai Cancer Registry 2004–2009

Background

Pancreatic cancer is a devastating disease with dismal prognosis. Large population-based evidence on its survival rate and influence factors is lacking in China.

Objective

This study aimed to depict the demographic factors, tumor characteristics, incidence rate and survival rate of pancreatic cancer cases in urban China.

Methods

The demographic factors, tumor characteristics were collected for all the pancreatic cancer cases identified during 2004 to 2009 from the Shanghai Cancer Registry. The survival time was ascertained through linkage of the Shanghai Cancer Registry and the Shanghai Vital Statistics Registry. The deadline of death certificates was the end of December 2012. Kaplan-Meier method and Cox proportional-hazards regression model were used to explore the survival rate and influence factors.

Results

11,672 new pancreatic cancer cases were identified among Shanghai residency during 2004 to 2009. The crude incidence rate of pancreatic cancer was increasing from 12.80/100,000 in 2004 to 15.66/100,000 in 2009, while the standardized incidence rate was about 6.70/100,000 and didn''t change a lot. The overall 5-year survival rate was 4.1% and the median survival time was 3.9 (95% Confidence Interval (CI) 3.8–4.0) months. Subjects had received surgical resection had improved survival (HR  = 0.742, 95% CI: 0.634–0.868) than its counterparts. In adjusted multivariable Cox proportional-hazard models, factors associated with poor survival included older age at diagnosis (age > = 70 years: hazard ratio (HR)  = 1.827, 95% CI: 1.614–2.067), male sex (HR  = 1.155, 95% CI: 1.041–1.281), distant disease at diagnosis (HR =  1.257, 95% CI: 1.061–1.488), positive lymph node (HR  = 1.236, 95% CI: 1.085–1.408), tumor stage (Stage IV HR  = 2.817, 95% CI: 2.029–3.909).

Conclusion

The age-adjusted incidence rate was stable and overall survival rate was low among pancreatic cancer patients of Shanghai residency. Early detection and improved treatment strategies are needed to improve prognosis for this deadly disease.     

Incidence and Risk Factors for Placenta Accreta/Increta/Percreta in the UK: A National Case-Control Study

Background

Placenta accreta/increta/percreta is associated with major pregnancy complications and is thought to be becoming more common. The aims of this study were to estimate the incidence of placenta accreta/increta/percreta in the UK and to investigate and quantify the associated risk factors.

Methods

A national case-control study using the UK Obstetric Surveillance System was undertaken, including 134 women diagnosed with placenta accreta/increta/percreta between May 2010 and April 2011 and 256 control women.

Results

The estimated incidence of placenta accreta/increta/percreta was 1.7 per 10,000 maternities overall; 577 per 10,000 in women with both a previous caesarean delivery and placenta praevia. Women who had a previous caesarean delivery (adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 14.41, 95%CI 5.63–36.85), other previous uterine surgery (aOR 3.40, 95%CI 1.30–8.91), an IVF pregnancy (aOR 32.13, 95%CI 2.03–509.23) and placenta praevia diagnosed antepartum (aOR 65.02, 95%CI 16.58–254.96) had raised odds of having placenta accreta/increta/percreta. There was also a raised odds of placenta accreta/increta/percreta associated with older maternal age in women without a previous caesarean delivery (aOR 1.30, 95%CI 1.13–1.50 for every one year increase in age).

Conclusions

Women with both a prior caesarean delivery and placenta praevia have a high incidence of placenta accreta/increta/percreta. There is a need to maintain a high index of suspicion of abnormal placental invasion in such women and preparations for delivery should be made accordingly.     

Prospective Validation of a Prognostic Model for Respiratory Syncytial Virus Bronchiolitis in Late Preterm Infants: A Multicenter Birth Cohort Study

Objectives

This study aimed to update and validate a prediction rule for respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) hospitalization in preterm infants 33–35 weeks gestational age (WGA).

Study Design

The RISK study consisted of 2 multicenter prospective birth cohorts in 41 hospitals. Risk factors were assessed at birth among healthy preterm infants 33–35 WGA. All hospitalizations for respiratory tract infection were screened for proven RSV infection by immunofluorescence or polymerase chain reaction. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to update an existing prediction model in the derivation cohort (n = 1,227). In the validation cohort (n = 1,194), predicted versus actual RSV hospitalization rates were compared to determine validity of the model.

Results

RSV hospitalization risk in both cohorts was comparable (5.7% versus 4.9%). In the derivation cohort, a prediction rule to determine probability of RSV hospitalization was developed using 4 predictors: family atopy (OR 1.9; 95%CI, 1.1–3.2), birth period (OR 2.6; 1.6–4.2), breastfeeding (OR 1.7; 1.0–2.7) and siblings or daycare attendance (OR 4.7; 1.7–13.1). The model showed good discrimination (c-statistic 0.703; 0.64–0.76, 0.702 after bootstrapping). External validation showed good discrimination and calibration (c-statistic 0.678; 0.61–0.74).

Conclusions

Our prospectively validated prediction rule identifies infants at increased RSV hospitalization risk, who may benefit from targeted preventive interventions. This prediction rule can facilitate country-specific, cost-effective use of RSV prophylaxis in late preterm infants.     

A Meta-Analysis of Parental Smoking and the Risk of Childhood Brain Tumors

Objective

Previous studies regarding the association between parental smoking and the risk of childhood brain tumors (CBT) have reported inconsistent results. We performed a meta-analysis to summarize evidence on this association and to quantify the potential dose-response relationship.

Methods

A systematic literature search was conducted in the Medline and Embase databases. The summary relative risks (RRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated. Dose–response meta-analysis was also performed for studies that reported categorical risk estimates for a series of smoking exposure levels.

Results

A total of 17 studies fulfilled the inclusion criteria. In the meta-analyses, the summary RRs (95% CIs) of CBT for maternal smoking during pregnancy, paternal smoking during pregnancy, maternal smoking before pregnancy, and paternal smoking before pregnancy were 0.96 (0.86–1.07), 1.09 (0.97–1.22), 0.93 (0.85–1.00), and 1.09 (1.00–1.20), respectively. Dose-response meta-analysis also showed no significant association between parental smoking and the risk of CBT.

Conclusions

Findings from our meta-analysis indicate that parental smoking may not be associated with a risk of CBT.     

Background Rates of Adverse Pregnancy Outcomes for Assessing the Safety of Maternal Vaccine Trials in Sub-Saharan Africa

Background

Maternal immunization has gained traction as a strategy to diminish maternal and young infant mortality attributable to infectious diseases. Background rates of adverse pregnancy outcomes are crucial to interpret results of clinical trials in Sub-Saharan Africa.

Methods

We developed a mathematical model that calculates a clinical trial''s expected number of neonatal and maternal deaths at an interim safety assessment based on the person-time observed during different risk windows. This model was compared to crude multiplication of the maternal mortality ratio and neonatal mortality rate by the number of live births. Systematic reviews of severe acute maternal morbidity (SAMM), low birth weight (LBW), prematurity, and major congenital malformations (MCM) in Sub-Saharan African countries were also performed.

Findings

Accounting for the person-time observed during different risk periods yields lower, more conservative estimates of expected maternal and neonatal deaths, particularly at an interim safety evaluation soon after a large number of deliveries. Median incidence of SAMM in 16 reports was 40.7 (IQR: 10.6–73.3) per 1,000 total births, and the most common causes were hemorrhage (34%), dystocia (22%), and severe hypertensive disorders of pregnancy (22%). Proportions of liveborn infants who were LBW (median 13.3%, IQR: 9.9–16.4) or premature (median 15.4%, IQR: 10.6–19.1) were similar across geographic region, study design, and institutional setting. The median incidence of MCM per 1,000 live births was 14.4 (IQR: 5.5–17.6), with the musculoskeletal system comprising 30%.

Interpretation

Some clinical trials assessing whether maternal immunization can improve pregnancy and young infant outcomes in the developing world have made ethics-based decisions not to use a pure placebo control. Consequently, reliable background rates of adverse pregnancy outcomes are necessary to distinguish between vaccine benefits and safety concerns. Local studies that quantify population-based background rates of adverse pregnancy outcomes will improve safety assessment of interventions during pregnancy.     

Multiple Sclerosis in the Mount Etna Region: Possible Role of Volcanogenic Trace Elements

Background

Trace elements have been hypothesised to be involved in the pathogenesis of Multiple Sclerosis and volcanic degassing is the major natural sources of trace elements. Both incidence of Multiple Sclerosis in Catania and volcanic activity of Mount Etna have been significantly increased during the last 30 years. Due to prevailing trade winds direction, volcanic gases from Etna summit craters are mostly blown towards the eastern and southern sectors of the volcano.

Objective

To evaluate the possible association between Multiple Sclerosis and exposure to volcanogenic trace elements.

Methods

We evaluated prevalence and incidence of Multiple Sclerosis in four communities (47,234 inhabitants) located in the eastern flank and in two communities (52,210 inhabitants) located in the western flank of Mount Etna, respectively the most and least exposed area to crater gas emissions.

Results

A higher prevalence was found in the population of the eastern flank compared to the population of the western one (137.6/100,000 versus 94.3/100,000; p-value 0.04). We found a borderline significantly higher incidence risk during the incidence study period (1980–2009) in the population of the eastern flank 4.6/100,000 (95% CI 3.1–5.9), compared with the western population 3.2/100,000 (95% CI 2.4–4.2) with a RR of 1.41 (95% CI 0.97–2.05; p-value 0.06). Incidence risks have increased over the time in both populations reaching a peak of 6.4/100,000 in the eastern flank and of 4.4/100.000 in the western flank during 2000–2009.

Conclusion

We found a higher prevalence and incidence of Multiple Sclerosis among populations living in the eastern flank of Mount Etna. According to our data a possible role of TE cannot be ruled out as possible co-factor in the MS pathogenesis. However larger epidemiological study are needed to confirm this hypothesis.     

Trends in the Population Prevalence of People Who Inject Drugs in US Metropolitan Areas 1992–2007

Background

People who inject drugs (PWID) have increased risk of morbidity and mortality. We update and present estimates and trends of the prevalence of current PWID and PWID subpopulations in 96 US metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) for 1992–2007. Current estimates of PWID and PWID subpopulations will help target services and help to understand long-term health trends among PWID populations.

Methodology

We calculated the number of PWID in the US annually from 1992–2007 and apportioned estimates to MSAs using multiplier methods. We used four types of data indicating drug injection to allocate national annual totals to MSAs, creating four distinct series of component estimates of PWID in each MSA and year. The four component estimates are averaged to create the best estimate of PWID for each MSA and year. We estimated PWID prevalence rates for three subpopulations defined by gender, age, and race/ethnicity. We evaluated trends using multi-level polynomial models.

Results

PWID per 10,000 persons aged 15–64 years varied across MSAs from 31 to 345 in 1992 (median 104.4) to 34 to 324 in 2007 (median 91.5). Trend analysis indicates that this rate declined during the early period and then was relatively stable in 2002–2007. Overall prevalence rates for non-Hispanic black PWID increased in 2005 as compared to other racial/ethnic groups. Hispanic prevalence, in contrast, declined across time. Importantly, results show a worrisome trend in young PWID prevalence since HAART was initiated – the mean prevalence was 90 to 100 per 10,000 youth in 1992–1996, but increased to >120 PWID per 10,000 youth in 2006–2007.

Conclusions

Overall, PWID rates remained constant since 2002, but increased for two subpopulations: non-Hispanic black PWID and young PWID. Estimates of PWID are important for planning and evaluating public health programs to reduce harm among PWID and for understanding related trends in social and health outcomes.     

An Analysis of 60 Years of Autopsy Data from Zhejiang University in Hangzhou,China

Context

The autopsy rate gradually decreased during 1950–1999, and increased during the most recent decade (2000–2009). The diagnostic inaccuracy rate was continuously high during the 60 years.

Objective

To investigate disagreement between the pathological and clinical diagnosis during 60 years (1950–2009).

Data Sources

A 60-year retrospective study was carried out on the 4140 autopsy cases performed in Zhejiang University School of Medicine.

Results

The highest number of cases was 1037 during 1960–1969, while the lowest was 102 during 1990–1999. During the 1999–2009 period, 978 cases were completed, which ranked second within the 60 years. The total clinical misdiagnosis rate was 46.38%, while the highest was 73.82% in 2000–2009. During the 60 years, the diseases associated with highest diagnostic inaccuracy rates were circulatory diseases (76.97%), cancer (60.99%), and brain diseases (54.48%). The invasive fungal infection rate was 1.84% of the 4140 cases, and the diagnostic inaccuracy rate for this condition reached as high as 86.10%. In the autopsied disease spectrum over the 60 years, the most common diseases were respiratory (1349, 32.58%), circulatory (495, 11.96%), and brain diseases (424, 10.24%).

Conclusion

Although the number of autopsies decreased from 1950 to 1999, it increased from 2000 to 2009, while the discordance rate between clinical and autopsy diagnosis remained high throughout.