Monte Carlo mixture model of lifetime cancer incidence risk from radiation exposure on shuttle and international space station

Estimating uncertainty in lifetime cancer risk for human exposure to space radiation is a unique challenge. Conventional risk assessment with low-linear-energy-transfer (LET)-based risk from Japanese atomic bomb survivor studies may be inappropriate for relativistic protons and nuclei in space due to track structure effects. This paper develops a Monte Carlo mixture model (MCMM) for transferring additive, National Institutes of Health multiplicative, and multiplicative excess cancer incidence risks based on Japanese atomic bomb survivor data to determine excess incidence risk for various US astronaut exposure profiles. The MCMM serves as an anchor point for future risk projection methods involving biophysical models of DNA damage from space radiation. Lifetime incidence risks of radiation-induced cancer for the MCMM based on low-LET Japanese data for nonleukemia (all cancers except leukemia) were 2.77 (90% confidence limit, 0.75-11.34) for males exposed to 1 Sv at age 45 and 2.20 (90% confidence limit, 0.59-10.12) for males exposed at age 55. For females, mixture model risks for nonleukemia exposed separately to 1 Sv at ages of 45 and 55 were 2.98 (90% confidence limit, 0.90-11.70) and 2.44 (90% confidence limit, 0.70-10.30), respectively. Risks for high-LET 200 MeV protons (LET=0.45 keV/micrometer), 1 MeV alpha-particles (LET=100 keV/micrometer), and 600 MeV iron particles (LET=180 keV/micrometer) were scored on a per particle basis by determining the particle fluence required for an average of one particle per cell nucleus of area 100 micrometer(2). Lifetime risk per proton was 2.68x10(-2)% (90% confidence limit, 0.79x10(-3)%-0. 514x10(-2)%). For alpha-particles, lifetime risk was 14.2% (90% confidence limit, 2.5%-31.2%). Conversely, lifetime risk per iron particle was 23.7% (90% confidence limit, 4.5%-53.0%). Uncertainty in the DDREF for high-LET particles may be less than that for low-LET radiation because typically there is very little dose-rate dependence. Probability density functions for high-LET radiation quality and dose-rate may be preferable to conventional risk assessment approaches. Nuclear reactions and track structure effects in tissue may not be properly estimated by existing data using in vitro models for estimating RBEs. The method used here is being extended to estimate uncertainty in spacecraft shielding effectiveness in various space radiation environments.     

Effects of radiation and lifestyle factors on risks of urothelial carcinoma in the Life Span Study of atomic bomb survivors

Among the Life Span Study (LSS) of Atomic-bomb survivors, recent estimates showed that unspecified bladder cancer had high radiation sensitivity with a notably high female-to-male excess relative risk (ERR) per radiation dose ratio and were the only sites for which the ERR did not decrease with attained age. These findings, however, did not consider lifestyle factors, which could potentially confound or modify the risk estimates. This study estimated the radiation risks of the most prevalent subtype of urinary tract cancer, urothelial carcinoma, while accounting for smoking, consumption of fruit, vegetables, alcohol and level of education (a surrogate for socioeconomic status). Eligible study subjects included 105,402 (males = 42,890) LSS members who were cancer-free in 1958 and had estimated radiation doses. Members were censored due to loss of follow-up, incident cancer of another type, death, or the end of calendar year 2001. Surveys (by mail or clinical interview) gathered lifestyle data periodically for 1963-1991. There were 63,827 participants in one or more survey. Five hundred seventy-three incident urothelial carcinoma cases occurred, of which 364 occurred after lifestyle information was available. Analyses were performed using Poisson regression methods. The excess relative risk per weighted gray unit (the gamma component plus 10 times the neutron component, Gy(w)) was 1.00 (95% CI: 0.43-1.78) but the risks were not dependent upon age at exposure or attained age. Lifestyle factors other than smoking were not associated with urothelial carcinoma risk. Neither the magnitude of the radiation ERR estimate (1.00 compared to 0.96), nor the female-to-male (F:M) ERR/Gy(w) ratio (3.2 compared to 3.4) were greatly changed after accounting for all lifestyle factors. A multiplicative model of gender-specific radiation and smoking effects was the most revealing though there was no evidence of significant departures from either the additive or multiplicative joint effect models. Among the LSS cohort members with doses greater than 0.005 Gy(w) (average dose 0.21 Gy(w)), the attributable fraction of urothelial carcinoma due to radiation was 7.1% in males and 19.7% in females. Among current smokers, the attributable fraction of urothelial carcinoma due to smoking was 61% in males and 52% in females. Relative risk estimates of smoking risk were approximately two for smokers compared to nonsmokers. After adjustment for lifestyle factors, gender-specific radiation risks and the F:M ERR/Gy(w), the ratios of excess urothelial carcinoma risk were similar to the estimates without adjusting for lifestyle factors. Smoking was the primary factor responsible for excess urothelial carcinoma in this cohort. These findings led us to conclude that the radiation risk estimates of urothelial carcinoma do not appear to be strongly confounded or modified by smoking, consumption of alcohol, fruits, or vegetables, or level of education.     

Esophagus cancer and radiation exposure due to nuclear test fallout: an analysis based on the data of the Semipalatinsk historical cohort, 1960-1999

This paper describes the Semipalatinsk historical cohort study and, in particular, examines the association between combined external and internal radiation exposure and esophagus cancer. Esophagus cancer is the most frequent single cancer site in the cause of death follow-up for the Semipalatinsk cohort. Set up in the 1960s, this historical cohort included 10 exposed settlements in the vicinity of the Semipalatinsk nuclear test site in East Kazakhstan as well as 6 comparison settlements in a low exposure area of the same region. The external and internal radiation doses to the population of the settlements under study were mainly due to local fallout from atmospheric nuclear testing (1949-1962). The database includes dosimetry and health information for 19.545 inhabitants of exposed and comparison villages in the Semipalatinsk region, comprising a total of 582.750 person-years of follow-up between 1960 and 1999. Cumulative effective dose estimates in this cohort range from 20 mSv to -4 Sv, with a mean dose of 634 mSv in the exposed group. Relative risks were calculated in terms of rate ratios, using a Poisson regression model for grouped person-time data. Esophagus cancer was found substantially elevated, with a statistically significant increase of the relative risk with dose and an ERR/Sv of 2.37 (1.45; 3.28) for the total cohort. If the data set was restricted to the exposed group only, the ERR/Sv was found considerably lower (0.18 (-0.16; 0.52)), whereas the dose-response remained significant only in women. Overall, our results based on the Semipalatinsk historical cohort indicate an association between fallout exposure and the risk of esophagus cancer that should be further investigated.     

Intake of fruits and vegetables,and risk of endometrial cancer in the NIH-AARP Diet and Health Study

Background: Fruits and vegetables contain a wide variety of phytochemicals which may have anti-carcinogenic effects. Although the results of case–control studies have suggested a possible protective effect of fruit and vegetable intake on the risk of endometrial carcinoma, few cohort studies have examined this association. Materials and methods: We used data from the NIH-AARP Diet and Health Study to assess the association of fruit and vegetable consumption, as well as intake of specific botanical groupings of fruits and vegetables, with endometrial cancer risk among 112,088 women who completed a food-frequency questionnaire at baseline, in 1995–1996. During 8 years of follow-up 1142 incident cases of endometrial cancer were ascertained. Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI). Results: After adjustment for covariates, HRs for the highest compared to the lowest quintile of total fruit and total vegetable intake were 1.30 (95% CI 1.04–1.61, P for trend 0.05) and 1.09 (95% CI 0.90–1.33, P for trend 0.55), respectively. No inverse associations were observed for intake of any of 13 botanical groupings of fruits and vegetables. Conclusions: Results from this large prospective study do not support a protective role of a high intake of fruits or vegetables on the risk of endometrial cancer in older women.     

Impact of updating the non-radiation parameters in the ICRP 103 detriment model

The radiation detriment in ICRP 103 is defined as the product of the organ-specific risk coefficient and the damage that may be associated with a cancer type or hereditary effect. This is used to indicate a weighted risk according to the radiation sensitivity of different organs and the severity of damage that may possibly arise. While the risk refers to radiation exposure parameters, the extent of damage is independent of radiation. The parameters that are not affected by radiation are lethality, impairment of quality of life, and reduced life expectancy, which are considered as quantities associated with the severity of disease or damage. The damage and thus the detriment appear to be mostly affected by lethality, which is the quotient of the age-standardized mortality rate to the incidence rate. The analysis of the detriment presented in this paper focuses on the influence of the lethality on the detriment from 1980 to 2012 in the USA and Germany. While the lethality in this period covering more than three decades has decreased approximately linearly by 30% (both USA and Germany), within the same period the detriment declined only by 13% in the USA and by 15% in Germany. If only based on these two countries, an update on the detriment parameters with reference to 2007, when ICRP 103 was released, would result in a reduced weighted risk, i.e. the radiation detriment would be reduced by 10 to 15% from originally 5.7% per Sv for the whole population to roughly 5% per Sv.     

Studies of the mortality of atomic bomb survivors. report 12, part I. Cancer: 1950-1990

This continues the series of periodic general reports on cancer mortality in the cohort of A-bomb survivors followed by the Radiation Effects Research Foundation. The follow-up is extended by the 5 years 1986-1990, and analysis includes an additional 10,500 survivors with recently estimated radiation doses. Together these extensions add about 550,000 person-years of follow-up. The cohort analyzed consists of 86,572 subjects, of which about 60% have dose estimates of at least 0.005 Sv. During 1950-1990 there have been 3086 and 4741 cancer deaths for the less than and greater than 0.005 Sv groups, respectively. It is estimated that among these there have been approximately 420 excess cancer deaths during 1950-1990, of which about 85 were due to leukemia. For cancers other than leukemia (solid cancers), about 25% of the excess deaths in 1950-1990 occurred during the last 5 years; for those exposed as children this figure is nearly 50%. For leukemia only about 3% of the excess deaths in 1950-1990 occurred in the last 5 years. Whereas most of the excess for leukemia occurred in the first 15 years after exposure, for solid cancers the pattern of excess risk is apparently more like a life-long elevation of the natural age-specific cancer risk. Taking advantage of the lengthening follow-up, increased attention is given to clarifying temporal patterns of the excess cancer risk. Emphasis is placed on describing these patterns in terms of absolute excess risk, as well as relative risk. For example: (a) although it is becoming clearer that the excess relative risk for those exposed as children has declined over the follow-up, the excess absolute risk has increased rapidly with time; and (b) although the excess relative risk at a given age depends substantially on sex and age at exposure, the age-specific excess absolute risk depends little on these factors. The primary estimates of excess risk are now given as specific to sex and age at exposure, and these include projections of dose-specific lifetime risks for this cohort. The excess lifetime risk per sievert for solid cancers for those exposed at age 30 is estimated at 0.10 and 0.14 for males and females, respectively. Those exposed at age 50 have about one-third these risks. Projection of lifetime risks for those exposed at age 10 is more uncertain. Under a reasonable set of assumptions, estimates for this group range from about 1.0-1.8 times the estimates for those exposed at age 30. The excess life-time risk for leukemia at 1 Sv for those exposed at either 10 or 30 years is estimated as about 0.015 and 0.008 for males and females, respectively. Those exposed at age 50 have about two-thirds that risk. Excess risks for solid cancer appear quite linear up to about 3 Sv, but for leukemia apparent nonlinearity in dose results in risks at 0.1 Sv estimated at about 1/20 of those for 1.0 Sv. Site-specific risk estimates are given, but it is urged that great care be taken in interpreting these, because most of their variation can be explained simply by imprecision in the estimates.     

Lung cancer mortality among male nuclear workers of the Mayak facilities in the former Soviet Union

An analysis of lung cancer mortality in a cohort of 1,669 Mayak workers who started their employment in the plutonium and reprocessing plants between 1948 and 1958 has been carried out in terms of a relative risk model. Particular emphasis has been given to a discrimination of the effects of external gamma-ray exposure and internal alpha-particle exposure due to incorporated plutonium. This study has also used the information from a cohort of 2,172 Mayak reactor workers who were exposed only to external gamma rays. The baseline lung cancer mortality rate has not been taken from national statistics but has been derived from the cohort itself. For both alpha particles and gamma rays, the results of the analysis are consistent with linear dose dependences. The estimated excess relative risk per unit organ dose equivalent in the lung due to the plutonium alpha particles at age 60 equals, according to the present study, 0.6/Sv, with a radiation weighting factor of 20 for alpha particles. The 95% confidence range is 0.39/Sv to 1.0/Sv. For the gamma-ray component, the present analysis suggests an excess relative risk for lung cancer mortality at age 60 of 0.20/Sv, with, however, a large 95% confidence range of-0.04/Sv to 0.69/Sv.     

Main dietary compounds and pancreatic cancer risk. The quantitative analysis of case-control and cohort studies

Objective: Estimation of the role of main dietary compounds in the risk of developing pancreatic cancer. Research methods and procedures: Literature published till 2010 was reviewed and selected for further analysis. The used terms were: red meat, minced meat, ham, bacon, sausages, white meat, poultry, vegetables, fish, eggs, fruits, lifestyle, diet, pancreatic cancer and pancreatic neoplasm. The collected data were meta-analysed with calculation of combined relative risk and 95% confidence interval as well as studies heterogeneity. Results: A meta-analysis of 11 case–control studies indicates that red meat ingestion elevates pancreatic cancer risk by 48% (95% CI = 1.25–1.76). The vegetables and fruit reduce the risk by 38% (95% CI = 0.54–0.73) and 29% (95% CI = 0.59–0.84), respectively. The pooled analyses of 10 cohort studies do not show significant relations between main dietary compound ingestion and pancreatic cancer risk. Conclusion: The red meat intake is associated with elevated risk of pancreatic cancer in contrast to vegetables and fruit ingestion. The ingestion of red meat, vegetables and fruit in cohort studies was not influenced on pancreatic cancer risk. The role of fish, poultry and eggs was not significant in both case–control and cohort studies, thus further studies were needed.     

Genome-Wide Diet-Gene Interaction Analyses for Risk of Colorectal Cancer

Dietary factors, including meat, fruits, vegetables and fiber, are associated with colorectal cancer; however, there is limited information as to whether these dietary factors interact with genetic variants to modify risk of colorectal cancer. We tested interactions between these dietary factors and approximately 2.7 million genetic variants for colorectal cancer risk among 9,287 cases and 9,117 controls from ten studies. We used logistic regression to investigate multiplicative gene-diet interactions, as well as our recently developed Cocktail method that involves a screening step based on marginal associations and gene-diet correlations and a testing step for multiplicative interactions, while correcting for multiple testing using weighted hypothesis testing. Per quartile increment in the intake of red and processed meat were associated with statistically significant increased risks of colorectal cancer and vegetable, fruit and fiber intake with lower risks. From the case-control analysis, we detected a significant interaction between rs4143094 (10p14/near GATA3) and processed meat consumption (OR = 1.17; p = 8.7E-09), which was consistently observed across studies (p heterogeneity = 0.78). The risk of colorectal cancer associated with processed meat was increased among individuals with the rs4143094-TG and -TT genotypes (OR = 1.20 and OR = 1.39, respectively) and null among those with the GG genotype (OR = 1.03). Our results identify a novel gene-diet interaction with processed meat for colorectal cancer, highlighting that diet may modify the effect of genetic variants on disease risk, which may have important implications for prevention.     

The 15-Country Collaborative Study of Cancer Risk among Radiation Workers in the Nuclear Industry: estimates of radiation-related cancer risks

A 15-Country collaborative cohort study was conducted to provide direct estimates of cancer risk following protracted low doses of ionizing radiation. Analyses included 407,391 nuclear industry workers monitored individually for external radiation and 5.2 million person-years of follow-up. A significant association was seen between radiation dose and all-cause mortality [excess relative risk (ERR) 0.42 per Sv, 90% CI 0.07, 0.79; 18,993 deaths]. This was mainly attributable to a dose-related increase in all cancer mortality (ERR/Sv 0.97, 90% CI 0.28, 1.77; 5233 deaths). Among 31 specific types of malignancies studied, a significant association was found for lung cancer (ERR/Sv 1.86, 90% CI 0.49, 3.63; 1457 deaths) and a borderline significant (P = 0.06) association for multiple myeloma (ERR/Sv 6.15, 90% CI <0, 20.6; 83 deaths) and ill-defined and secondary cancers (ERR/Sv 1.96, 90% CI -0.26, 5.90; 328 deaths). Stratification on duration of employment had a large effect on the ERR/Sv, reflecting a strong healthy worker survivor effect in these cohorts. This is the largest analytical epidemiological study of the effects of low-dose protracted exposures to ionizing radiation to date. Further studies will be important to better assess the role of tobacco and other occupational exposures in our risk estimates.     

Radiation and smoking effects on lung cancer incidence by histological types among atomic bomb survivors

While the risk of lung cancer associated separately with smoking and radiation exposure has been widely reported, it is not clear how smoking and radiation together contribute to the risk of specific lung cancer histological types. With individual smoking histories and radiation dose estimates, we characterized the joint effects of radiation and smoking on type-specific lung cancer rates among the Life Span Study cohort of Japanese atomic bomb survivors. Among 105,404 cohort subjects followed between 1958 and 1999, 1,803 first primary lung cancer incident cases were diagnosed and classified by histological type. Poisson regression methods were used to estimate excess relative risks under several interaction models. Adenocarcinoma (636 cases), squamous-cell carcinoma (330) and small-cell carcinoma (194) made up 90% of the cases with known histology. Both smoking and radiation exposure significantly increased the risk of each major lung cancer histological type. Smoking-associated excess relative risks were significantly larger for small-cell and squamous-cell carcinomas than for adenocarcinoma. The gender-averaged excess relative risks per 1 Gy of radiation (for never-smokers at age 70 after radiation exposure at age 30) were estimated as 1.49 (95% confidence interval 0.1-4.6) for small-cell carcinoma, 0.75 (0.3-1.3) for adenocarcinoma, and 0.27 (0-1.5) for squamous-cell carcinoma. Under a model allowing radiation effects to vary with levels of smoking, the nature of the joint effect of smoking and radiation showed a similar pattern for different histological types in which the radiation-associated excess relative risk tended to be larger for moderate smokers than for heavy smokers. However, in contrast to analyses of all lung cancers as a group, such complicated interactions did not describe the data significantly better than either simple additive or multiplicative interaction models for any of the type-specific analyses.     

Occupational exposure to low doses of ionizing radiation and cataract development: a systematic literature review and perspectives on future studies

Ionizing radiation is a well-known but little understood risk factor for lens opacities. Until recently, cataract development was considered to be a deterministic effect occurring at lens doses exceeding a threshold of 5–8 Gy. Substantial uncertainty about the level and the existence of a threshold subsists. The International Commission on Radiation Protection recently revised it to 0.5 Gy. Based on a systematic literature review of epidemiological studies on exposure to low levels of ionizing radiation and the occurrence of lens opacities, a list of criteria for new epidemiological studies was compiled, and a list of potential study populations was reviewed. Among 24 publications finally identified, six report analyses of acute exposures in atomic bomb survivors and Chernobyl liquidators, and the others report analyses of protracted exposures in occupationally, medically or accidentally exposed populations. Three studies investigated a dose threshold: in atomic bomb survivors, the best estimates were 1 Sv (95 % CI <0–0.8 Sv) regarding lensectomies; in survivors exposed as children, 0.6 Sv (90 % CI <0.0–1.2 Sv) for cortical cataract prevalence and 0.7 Sv (90 % CI 0.0–2.8 Sv) for posterior subcapsular cataract; and in Chernobyl liquidators, 0.34 Sv (95 % CI 0.19–0.68 Sv) for stage 1 cataract. Current studies are heterogeneous and inconclusive regarding the dose–response relationship. Protracted exposures and high lens doses occur in several occupational groups, for instance, in physicians performing fluoroscopy-guided interventional procedures, and in accidentally exposed populations. New studies with a good retrospective exposure assessment are feasible and should be initiated.     

Lung cancer after treatment for Hodgkin's disease: focus on radiation effects

Aspects of radiation-induced lung cancer were evaluated in an international study of Hodgkin's disease. The study population consisted of 227 patients with lung cancer and 455 matched controls. Unique features included dose determinations to the specific location in the lung where each cancer developed and quantitative data on both chemotherapy and tobacco use obtained from medical records. The estimated excess relative risk (ERR) per Gy was 0.15 (95% CI: 0.06-0.39), and there was little evidence of departure from linearity even though lung doses for the majority of Hodgkin's disease patients treated with radiotherapy exceeded 30 Gy. The interaction of radiation and chemotherapy that included alkylating agents was almost exactly additive, and a multiplicative relationship could be rejected (P = 0.017). Conversely, the interaction of radiation and smoking was consistent with a multiplicative relationship, but not with an additive relationship (P < 0.001). The ERR/Gy for males was about four times that for females, although the difference was not statistically significant. There was little evidence of modification of the ERR/Gy by time since exposure (after a 5-year minimum latent period), age at exposure, or attained age. Because of the very high radiation doses received by Hodgkin's disease patients and the immunodeficiency inherent to this lymphoma and that associated with chemotherapy, generalizing these findings to other populations receiving considerably lower doses of radiation should be done cautiously.     

Radiation burdens for humans on prolonged exomagnetospheric voyages.

The severity of radiation exposure for astronauts outside the magnetosphere poses a critical unanswered question bearing on the use of manned vehicles in extended exploration of the solar system (moon, Mars). Such prolonged exomagnetospheric voyages (1-3 years) enter a radiologic environment more severe than that of low earth orbit, an annual dose equivalent in the range of 0.3-0.5 Sv (30-50 rem), and a lifetime excess cancer fatality risk of 3-5% due to low linear-energy-transfer components of galactic cosmic radiation alone. To this calculus must be added estimates for high-atomic-number, high-energy particles, the probability of solar particle events, and the limited effectiveness of shielding. For a 3-year Mars voyage these could elevate the dose equivalent to 1.5-2.25 Sv (150-225 rem) total (0.5-0.75 Sv [50-75 rem] annual) and risks to 5-9% excess cancer fatality. Both the mission (civilian scientific research) and the alternatives (unmanned robotic devices) enter the policy decision here. This paper presents a brief review of pertinent physical and biological data and of research urgently needed before reaching a decision on this question.     

Mortality and occupational exposure to radiation: first analysis of the National Registry for Radiation Workers.

OBJECTIVE--To study cause specific mortality of radiation workers with particular reference to associations between fatal neoplasms and level of exposure to radiation. DESIGN--Cohort study. SETTING--United Kingdom. SUBJECTS--95,217 radiation workers at major sites of the nuclear industry. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE--Cause of death. RESULTS--Most standardised mortality ratios were below 100: 83 unlagged, 85 with a 10 year lag for all causes; 84 unlagged, 86 lagged for all cancers; and 80 for all known other causes, indicating a "healthy worker effect." The deficit of lung cancer (75 unlagged, 76 lagged) was significant at the 0.1% level. Standardised mortality ratios were significantly raised (214 unlagged, 303 lagged) for thyroid cancer, but there was no evidence for any trend with external recorded radiation dose. Dose of external radiation and mortality from all cancers were weakly correlated (p = 0.10), and multiple myeloma was more strongly correlated (p = 0.06); for leukaemia, excluding chronic lymphatic, the trend was significant (p = 0.03; all tests one tailed). The central estimates of lifetime risk derived from these data were 10.0% per Sv (90% confidence interval less than 0 to 24%) for all cancers and 0.76% per Sv (0.07 to 2.4%) for leukaemia (excluding chronic lymphatic leukaemia). These are, respectively, 2.5 times and 1.9 times the risk estimates recommended by the International Commission on Radiological Protection, but 90% confidence intervals are large and the commission''s risk factors fall well within the range. The positive trend with dose for all cancers, from which the risk estimate was derived, was not significant. The positive association between leukaemia (except chronic lymphatic leukaemia) was significant and robust in subsidiary analyses. This study showed no association between radiation exposure and prostatic cancer. CONCLUSION--There is evidence for an association between radiation exposure and mortality from cancer, in particular leukaemia (excluding chronic lymphatic leukaemia) and multiple myeloma, although mortality from these diseases in the study population overall was below that in the general population. The central estimates of risk from this study lie above the most recent estimates of the International Commission on Radiological Protection for leukaemia (excluding chronic lymphatic leukaemia) and for all malignancies. However, the commission''s risk estimates are well within the 90% confidence intervals from this study. Analysis of combined cohorts of radiation workers in the United States indicated lower risk estimates than the commission recommends, and when the American data are combined with our analysis the overall risks are close to those estimated by the commission. This first analysis of the National Registry for Radiation Workers does not provide sufficient evidence to justify a revision in risk estimates for radiological protection purposes.     

Lung cancer risk of Mayak workers: modelling of carcinogenesis and bystander effect

Lung cancer mortality in the period of 1948-2002 has been analysed for 6,293 male workers of the Mayak Production Association, for whose information on smoking, annual external doses and annual lung doses due to plutonium exposures was available. Individual likelihoods were maximized for the two-stage clonal expansion (TSCE) model of carcinogenesis and for an empirical risk model. Possible detrimental and protective bystander effects on mutation and malignant transformation rates were taken into account in the TSCE model. Criteria for non-nested models were used to evaluate the quality of fit. Data were found to be incompatible with the model including a detrimental bystander effect. The model with a protective bystander effect did not improve the quality of fit over models without a bystander effect. The preferred TSCE model was sub-multiplicative in the risks due to smoking and internal radiation, and more than additive. Smoking contributed 57% to the lung cancer deaths, the interaction of smoking and radiation 27%, radiation 10%, and others cause 6%. An assessment of the relative biological effectiveness of plutonium was consistent with the ICRP recommended value of 20. At age 60 years, the excess relative risk (ERR) per lung dose was 0.20 (95% CI: 0.13; 0.40) Sv(-1), while the excess absolute risk (EAR) per lung dose was 3.2 (2.0; 6.2) per 10(4) PY Sv. With increasing age attained the ERR decreased and the EAR increased. In contrast to the atomic bomb survivors, a significant elevated lung cancer risk was also found for age attained younger than 55 years. For cumulative lung doses below 5 Sv, the excess risk depended linearly on dose. The excess relative risk was significantly lower in the TSCE model for ages attained younger than 55 than that in the empirical model. This reflects a model uncertainty in the results, which is not expressed by the standard statistical uncertainty bands.     

Studies of the mortality of atomic bomb survivors, Report 14, 1950-2003: an overview of cancer and noncancer diseases

This is the 14th report in a series of periodic general reports on mortality in the Life Span Study (LSS) cohort of atomic bomb survivors followed by the Radiation Effects Research Foundation to investigate the late health effects of the radiation from the atomic bombs. During the period 1950-2003, 58% of the 86,611 LSS cohort members with DS02 dose estimates have died. The 6 years of additional follow-up since the previous report provide substantially more information at longer periods after radiation exposure (17% more cancer deaths), especially among those under age 10 at exposure (58% more deaths). Poisson regression methods were used to investigate the magnitude of the radiation-associated risks, the shape of the dose response, and effect modification by gender, age at exposure, and attained age. The risk of all causes of death was positively associated with radiation dose. Importantly, for solid cancers the additive radiation risk (i.e., excess cancer cases per 10(4) person-years per Gy) continues to increase throughout life with a linear dose-response relationship. The sex-averaged excess relative risk per Gy was 0.42 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.32, 0.53] for all solid cancer at age 70 years after exposure at age 30 based on a linear model. The risk increased by about 29% per decade decrease in age at exposure (95% CI: 17%, 41%). The estimated lowest dose range with a significant ERR for all solid cancer was 0 to 0.20 Gy, and a formal dose-threshold analysis indicated no threshold; i.e., zero dose was the best estimate of the threshold. The risk of cancer mortality increased significantly for most major sites, including stomach, lung, liver, colon, breast, gallbladder, esophagus, bladder and ovary, whereas rectum, pancreas, uterus, prostate and kidney parenchyma did not have significantly increased risks. An increased risk of non-neoplastic diseases including the circulatory, respiratory and digestive systems was observed, but whether these are causal relationships requires further investigation. There was no evidence of a radiation effect for infectious or external causes of death.     

Food consumption,meat cooking methods and diet diversity and the risk of bladder cancer

BackgroundSince food metabolites are eliminated by the urinary tract, several studies have investigated the association between diet and bladder cancer risk. Recently, the World Cancer Research Fund International/American Institute for Cancer Research (WCRF/AICR) suggested a potential beneficial effect of some foods (mainly vegetables, fruit, and milk) in the development of bladder cancer. We investigated the association between food groups and bladder cancer risk, seeking insights into food diversity as well as meat cooking methods.MethodsData were derived from an Italian multicentre case–control study, conducted between 2003 and 2014, including 690 bladder cancer cases and 665 frequency-matched controls. Odds ratios (ORs) and the corresponding 95% confidence intervals (95%CIs) for various dietary aspects were estimated by unconditional logistic regression models adjusted for energy intake and the major known risk factors for bladder cancer.ResultsComparing the highest versus the lowest quartiles, consumption of vegetables (OR = 0.62; 95%CI: 0.44-0.88) and milk/yogurt (OR = 0.62; 95%CI: 0.44–0.87) reduced the risk of bladder cancer. Conversely, consumption of meat increased bladder cancer risk with an OR of 1.57 (95%CI: 1.07–2.31), particularly when the meat was stewed (OR = 1.47; 95%CI: 1.03–2.09) or roasted (OR = 1.41; 95%CI: 1.00–1.99). There was a suggestion that a diversified diet reduced the risk of bladder cancer, but this was not significant.ConclusionsOur study consolidates the role of diet in bladder cancer aetiology, showing a reduced risk for vegetable and milk/yogurt consumption and an increased risk for meat consumption, especially when the meat is stewed or roasted.     

Randomised controlled trial of effect of fruit and vegetable consumption on plasma concentrations of lipids and antioxidants.

OBJECTIVES: To determine the extent to which plasma antioxidant concentrations in people with habitual low intake of fruit and vegetables respond to increased intakes of these foods. To examine whether advice to increase fruit and vegetables will result in reduction of concentrations of total and low density lipoprotein cholesterol. DESIGN: Randomised controlled trial in which intervention and control groups were followed up for eight weeks. The intervention group was asked to consume eight servings of fruit and vegetables a day. SETTING: Dunedin, New Zealand. SUBJECTS: Eighty seven subjects with normal lipid concentrations who ate three or fewer servings of fruit and vegetables daily. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Plasma concentrations of vitamin C, retinol, alpha and beta carotene, alpha tocopherol, lipids, and lipoproteins. Dietary intake assessed with diet records over four days. RESULTS: The mean plasma vitamin C, alpha carotene, and beta carotene concentrations increased in parallel with increased dietary intake of fruit and vegetables in the intervention group. Concentrations of retinol, alpha tocopherol, lipids, and lipoproteins remained unchanged despite some increase in dietary vitamin E and a small reduction in saturated fat intake. CONCLUSIONS: Following a recommendation to increase fruit and vegetable consumption produces change in plasma concentrations of vitamin C, alpha carotene, and beta carotene likely to reduce incidence of cancer. More specific dietary advice to modify fat intake may be necessary to reduce the risk of cardiovascular disease mediated by lipoprotein and vitamin E.     

Interactions between the OGG1 Ser326Cys polymorphism and intake of fruit and vegetables in relation to lung cancer

The enzyme 8-oxoguanine glycosylase 1 (OGG1) repairs oxidatively damaged DNA and a polymorphism in the OGG1 gene (Ser³²⁶Cys) has been associated with lung cancer. We examined associations between the polymorphism and intake of fruits and vegetables and smoking in the development of lung cancer, by genotyping blood samples from 431 lung cancer cases and 796 comparison persons, which were identified within a prospective cohort on 57,000 cohort members. We found no overall association between the OGG1 polymorphism and lung cancer. There was a statistically significant interaction between the polymorphism and dietary intake of vegetables, with a 54% decrease in lung cancer risk per 50% increase in vegetable intake among homozygous Cys³²⁶Cys carriers and no decrease in risk among carriers of Ser³²⁶Ser or Ser³²⁶Cys. The same tendency was seen in relation to intake of fruit. There were no statistically significant interactions between the OGG1 polymorphism and smoking.