Global climate change and soil carbon stocks; predictions from two contrasting models for the turnover of organic carbon in soil

Enhanced release of CO₂ to the atmosphere from soil organic carbon as a result of increased temperatures may lead to a positive feedback between climate change and the carbon cycle, resulting in much higher CO₂ levels and accelerated global warming. However, the magnitude of this effect is uncertain and critically dependent on how the decomposition of soil organic C (heterotrophic respiration) responds to changes in climate. Previous studies with the Hadley Centre's coupled climate–carbon cycle general circulation model (GCM) (HadCM3LC) used a simple, single‐pool soil carbon model to simulate the response. Here we present results from numerical simulations that use the more sophisticated ‘RothC’ multipool soil carbon model, driven with the same climate data. The results show strong similarities in the behaviour of the two models, although RothC tends to simulate slightly smaller changes in global soil carbon stocks for the same forcing. RothC simulates global soil carbon stocks decreasing by 54 Gt C by 2100 in a climate change simulation compared with an 80 Gt C decrease in HadCM3LC. The multipool carbon dynamics of RothC cause it to exhibit a slower magnitude of transient response to both increased organic carbon inputs and changes in climate. We conclude that the projection of a positive feedback between climate and carbon cycle is robust, but the magnitude of the feedback is dependent on the structure of the soil carbon model.     

Direct measurement of soil organic carbon content change in the croplands of China

Agricultural soils in China have been estimated to have a large potential for carbon sequestration, and modelling and literature survey studies have yielded contrasting results of soil organic carbon (SOC) stock change, ranging from ?2.0 to +0.6% yr^?1. To assess the validity of earlier estimates, we collected 1394 cropland soil profiles from all over the country and measured SOC contents in 2007–2008, and compared them with those of a previous national soil survey conducted in 1979–1982. The results showed that average SOC content in the 0–20 cm soil increased from 11.95 g kg^?1 in 1979–1982 to 12.67 g kg^?1 in 2007–2008, averaging 0.22% yr^?1. The standard deviation of SOC contents decreased. Four major soil types had statistically significant changes in their mean SOC contents for 0–20 cm. These were: +7.5% for Anthrosols (paddy soils), +18.3% for Eutric Cambisols, +30.5% for Fluvisols, and ?22.3% for Chernozems. The change of SOC contents showed a negative relationship with the average SOC contents of the two sampling campaigns only when soils in the region south of Yangtse River were excluded. SOC contents of the two major soil types in the region south of Yangtse River, i.e., Haplic Alisols/Haplic Acrisols and Anthrosols (paddy soils), changed little or significantly increased, though with a high SOC content. We suggest that the increase of SOC content is mainly attributed to the large increase in crop yields since the 1980s, and the short history as cropland establishment is mainly responsible for the decrease in SOC content for some soil types and regions showing a SOC decline.     

Litter type and soil minerals control temperate forest soil carbon response to climate change

Temperate forest soil organic carbon (C) represents a significant pool of terrestrial C that may be released to the atmosphere as CO₂ with predicted changes in climate. To address potential feedbacks between climate change and terrestrial C turnover, we quantified forest soil C response to litter type and temperature change as a function of soil parent material. We collected soils from three conifer forests dominated by ponderosa pine (PP; Pinus ponderosa Laws.); white fir [WF; Abies concolor (Gord. and Glend.) Lindl.]; and red fir (RF; Abies magnifica A. Murr.) from each of three parent materials, granite (GR), basalt (BS), and andesite (AN) in the Sierra Nevada of California. Field soils were incubated at their mean annual soil temperature (MAST), with addition of native ¹³C‐labeled litter to characterize soil C mineralization under native climate conditions. Further, we incubated WF soils at PP MAST with ¹³C‐labeled PP litter, and RF soils at WF MAST with ¹³C‐labeled WF litter to simulate a migration of MAST and litter type, and associated change in litter quality, up‐elevation in response to predicted climate warming. Results indicated that total CO₂ and percent of CO₂ derived from soil C varied significantly by parent material, following the pattern of GR>BS>AN. Regression analyses indicated interactive control of C mineralization by litter type and soil minerals. Soils with high short‐range‐order (SRO) mineral content exhibited little response to varying litter type, whereas PP litter enriched in acid‐soluble components promoted a substantial increase of extant soil C mineralization in soils of low SRO mineral content. Climate change conditions increased soil C mineralization greater than 200% in WF forest soils. In contrast, little to no change in soil C mineralization was noted for the RF forest soils, suggesting an ecosystem‐specific climate change response. The climate change response varied by parent material, where AN soils exhibited minimal change and GR and BS soils mineralized substantially greater soil C. This study corroborates the varied response in soil C mineralization by parent material and highlights how the soil mineral assemblage and litter type may interact to control conifer forest soil C response to climate change.     

Climate change effects on carbon and nitrogen mineralization in peatlands through changes in soil quality

Climate change will directly affect carbon and nitrogen mineralization through changes in temperature and soil moisture, but it may also indirectly affect mineralization rates through changes in soil quality. We used an experimental mesocosm system to examine the effects of 6‐year manipulations of infrared loading (warming) and water‐table level on the potential anaerobic nitrogen and carbon (as carbon dioxide (CO₂) and methane (CH₄) production) mineralization potentials of bog and fen peat over 11 weeks under uniform anaerobic conditions. To investigate the response of the dominant methanogenic pathways, we also analyzed the stable isotope composition of CH₄ produced in the samples. Bog peat from the highest water‐table treatment produced more CO₂ than bog peat from drier mesocosms. Fen peat from the highest water‐table treatment produced the most CH₄. Cumulative nitrogen mineralization was lowest in bog peat from the warmest treatment and lowest in the fen peat from the highest water‐table treatment. As all samples were incubated under constant conditions, observed differences in mineralization patterns reflect changes in soil quality in response to climate treatments. The largest treatment effects on carbon mineralization as CO₂ occurred early in the incubations and were ameliorated over time, suggesting that the climate treatments changed the size and/or quality of a small labile carbon pool. CH₄ from the fen peat appeared to be predominately from the acetoclastic pathway, while in the bog peat a strong CH₄ oxidation signal was present despite the anaerobic conditions of our incubations. There was no evidence that changes in soil quality have lead to differences in the dominant methanogenic pathways in these systems. Overall, our results suggest that even relatively short‐term changes in climate can alter the quality of peat in bogs and fens, which could alter the response of peatland carbon and nitrogen mineralization to future climate change.     

Soil organic carbon stocks in China and changes from 1980s to 2000s

The estimation of the size and changes of soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks is of great importance for decision makers to adopt proper measures to protect soils and to develop strategies for mitigation of greenhouse gases. In this paper, soil data from the Second State Soil Survey of China (SSSSC) conducted in the early 1980s and data published in the last 5 years were used to estimate the size of SOC stocks over the whole profile and their changes in China in last 20 years. Soils were identified as paddy, upland, forest, grassland or waste‐land soils and an improved soil bulk density estimation method was used to estimate missing bulk density data. In the early 1980s, total SOC stocks were estimated at 89.61 Pg (1 Pg=10³ Tg=10¹⁵ g) in China's 870.94 Mha terrestrial areas covered by 2473 soil series. In the paddy, upland, forest and grassland soils the respective total SOC stocks were 2.91 Pg on 29.87 Mha, 10.07 Pg on 125.89 Mha, 34.23 Pg on 249.32 Mha and 37.71 Pg on 278.51 Mha, respectively. The SOC density of the surface layer ranged from 3.5 Mg ha⁻¹ in Gray Desery grassland soils to 252.6 Mg ha⁻¹ in Mountain Meadow forest soils. The average area‐weighted total SOC density in paddy soils (97.6 Mg ha⁻¹) was higher than that in upland soils (80 Mg ha⁻¹). Soils under forest (137.3 Mg ha⁻¹) had a similar average area‐weighted total SOC density as those under grassland (135.4 Mg ha⁻¹). The annual estimated SOC accumulation rates in farmland and forest soils in the last 20 years were 23.61 and 11.72 Tg, respectively, leading to increases of 0.472 and 0.234 Pg SOC in farmland and forest areas, respectively. In contrast, SOC under grassland declined by 3.56 Pg due to the grassland degradation over this period. The resulting estimated net SOC loss in China's soils over the last 20 years was 2.86 Pg. The documented SOC accumulation in farmland and forest soils could thus not compensate for the loss of SOC in grassland soils in the last 20 years. There were, however, large regional differences: Soils in China's South and Eastern parts acted mainly as C sinks, increasing their average topsoil SOC by 132 and 145 Tg, respectively. In contrast, in the Northwest, Northeast, Inner Mongolia and Tibet significant losses of 1.38, 0.21, 0.49 and 1.01 Pg of SOC, respectively, were estimated over the last 20 years. These results highlight the importance to take measures to protect grassland and to improve management practices to increase C sequestration in farmland and forest soils.     

Mechanisms for changes in soil carbon storage with pasture to Pinus radiata land-use change

In this study, we simulated pasture to Pinus radiata land‐use change with the Generic Decomposition And Yield (G'DAY) ecosystem model to examine mechanisms responsible for the change in soil carbon (C) under pine. We parameterized the model for paired sites in New Zealand. Our simulations successfully reproduced empirical trends in ecosystem productivity and soil inorganic nitrogen (N), and modeled an increase in soil C and a small decline in soil N after 30 years under pine. We determined the mechanisms contributing to soil C change based on an established hypothesis that attributes increases in soil C storage to three main factors: increased ecosystem N inputs relative to outputs, increased C/N ratios in plant and soil, or a shift of N from plant to soil. The mechanisms we attributed to the simulated increase in soil C under pine were increased soil C inputs through tree litterfall, and an increase in the soil C/N ratio. In the first 7 years following pine establishment, a decline in soil C was simulated; this was matched by a decline in soil N. The simulated longer‐term increase in soil C with afforestation by pine contrasts with results from published field studies, which show either a decline or no change in soil C under pine. The discrepancy between measured and simulated changes in soil C was attributed to the G'DAY model overestimating the transfer of litter C into the mineral soil.     

Effects of variations in simulated changes in soil carbon contents and dynamics on future climate projections

Climatic variables have major effects on all components and processes of the global carbon (C) cycle, including soil C contents and dynamics, which in turn have significant feedback effects on the global climate. We have investigated the interactive effects between soil C and projected climatic changes using the Institute of Numerical Mathematics Climate Model (INMCM) climate–C cycle model coupled to three soil organic matter dynamics models [the Lund–Potsdam–Jena (LPJ) soil biogeochemistry, ROMUL and Q models] based on three markedly differing conceptual interpretations of soil organic matter transformation (biochemical, discrete succession and continuous quality, respectively). According to simulations using all these couplings the positive effect of CO₂ fertilization on plant productivity outweighed the negative effects of increased soil temperature on soil C, consequently soils were projected to contain 10–104 Pg more C in 2100 than in the preindustrial period. However, the projected soil respiration rates tended to be higher and additional C storage lower when the LPJ soil biochemistry model was used rather than either the ROMUL or Q models. Global temperatures for 2100 predicted by the INMCM coupled to either the ROMUL or Q models were almost identical, but 0.4 °C lower than those predicted by the INMCM coupled to the LPJ soil biochemistry model. The differences in global predictions obtained with the ROMUL and Q models were smaller than expected given the fundamental difference in their formulations of the relationship between the quality and temperature sensitivity of soil organic matter decomposition.     

How uncertainties in future climate change predictions translate into future terrestrial carbon fluxes

We forced a global terrestrial carbon cycle model by climate fields of 14 ocean and atmosphere general circulation models (OAGCMs) to simulate the response of terrestrial carbon pools and fluxes to climate change over the next century. These models participated in the second phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP2), where a 1% per year increase of atmospheric CO₂ was prescribed. We obtain a reduction in net land uptake because of climate change ranging between 1.4 and 5.7 Gt C yr^?1 at the time of atmospheric CO₂ doubling. Such a reduction in terrestrial carbon sinks is largely dominated by the response of tropical ecosystems, where soil water stress occurs. The uncertainty in the simulated land carbon cycle response is the consequence of discrepancies in land temperature and precipitation changes simulated by the OAGCMs. We use a statistical approach to assess the coherence of the land carbon fluxes response to climate change. The biospheric carbon fluxes and pools changes have a coherent response in the tropics, in the Mediterranean region and in high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. This is because of a good coherence of soil water content change in the first two regions and of temperature change in the high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. Then we evaluate the carbon uptake uncertainties to the assumptions on plant productivity sensitivity to atmospheric CO₂ and on decomposition rate sensitivity to temperature. We show that these uncertainties are on the same order of magnitude than the uncertainty because of climate change. Finally, we find that the OAGCMs having the largest climate sensitivities to CO₂ are the ones with the largest soil drying in the tropics, and therefore with the largest reduction of carbon uptake.     

Climate change cannot be entirely responsible for soil carbon loss observed in England and Wales, 1978–2003

We present results from modelling studies, which suggest that, at most, only about 10–20% of recently observed soil carbon losses in England and Wales could possibly be attributable to climate warming. Further, we present reasons why the actual losses of SOC from organic soils in England and Wales might be lower than those reported.     

Latitudinal differentiated water table control of carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide fluxes from hydromorphic soils: feedbacks to climate change

The possibility of carbon (C) being locked away from the atmosphere for millennia is given in hydromorphic soils. However, the water-table-dependent feedback from soil organic matter (SOM) decomposition to the climate system is less clear. At least three greenhouse gases are produced: carbon dioxide (CO₂), methane (CH₄) and nitrous oxide (N₂O). These gases show emission peaks at different water table positions and have different global warming potentials (GWP), for example a factor of 23 for CH₄ and 296 for N₂O as compared with the equivalent mass of CO₂ on a 100-year time horizon. This review of available annual data on all three gases revealed that the radiative forcing effect of SOM decomposition is principally dictated by CO₂ despite its low GWP. Anaerobic SOM decomposition generally has a lower potential feedback to the climatic system than aerobic SOM decomposition. Concrete values are constrained by a lack of data from tropical and subarctic regions. Furthermore, data on N₂O and on plant effects are generally rare. However, there is a clear latitudinal differentiation for the GWP of soils under anaerobic conditions compared with aerobic conditions when looking at CO₂ and CH₄: in the tropical and temperate regions, the anaerobic GWP showed a range of 25–60% of the aerobic value, but values varied between 80% and 110% in the boreal zone. Hence, particularly in the vulnerable boreal zone, the feedback from ecosystems to climate change will highly depend on plant responses to changing water tables at elevated temperatures.     

A method for experimental heating of intact soil profiles for application to climate change experiments

A new system for simulating future belowground temperature increases was conceived, simulated, constructed and tested in a temperate deciduous forest in Oak Ridge, TN, USA. The new system uses low‐wattage, 3 m deep heaters installed around the circumference of a defined soil volume. The heaters add the necessary energy to achieve a set soil temperature differential within the treatment area and add exterior energy inputs equal to those, which might be lost from lateral heat conduction. The method, which was designed to work in conjunction with aboveground heated chambers, requires only two control sensor positions one for aboveground air temperatures at 1 m and another for belowground temperatures at 0.8 m. The method is capable of achieving temperature differentials of at least +4.0±0.5 °C for soils to a measured depth of ?2 m. These +4 °C differential soil temperatures were sustained in situ throughout 2009, and both diurnal and seasonal cycles at all soil depths were retained using this simple heating approach. Measured mean energy inputs required to sustain the target heating level of +4 °C over the 7.1 m² target area were substantial for aboveground heating (21.1 kW h day^?1 m^?2), but 16 times lower for belowground heaters (1.3 kW h day^?1 m^?2). Observations of soil CO₂ efflux from the surface of the target soil volumes showed CO₂ losses throughout 2009 that were elevated above the temperature response curve that have been reported in previous near‐surface soil warming studies. Stimulation of biological activity within previously undisturbed deep‐soil carbon stocks is the hypothesized source. Long‐term research programs may be able to apply this new heating method that captures expected future warming and temperature dynamics throughout the soil profile to address uncertainties in process‐level responses of microbial, plant and animal communities in whole, intact ecosystems.     

Uncertainty analysis of soil organic carbon stock change in Canadian cropland from 1991 to 2001

National estimates of changes in the amount of soil organic carbon (SOC) in cropland requires an assessment of uncertainty for accounting and reporting under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and the Kyoto Protocol. Canada has data sets on SOC stocks in croplands, historical changes in SOC levels due to management practices, and historical changes in the area of land devoted to certain soil management practices. We conducted an analysis of uncertainty of the change in SOC levels due to management practices in Canada from 1991 to 2001 using Monte Carlo analysis and a simple model. Probability distribution functions were determined for each of the inputs of the model, enabling us to assess the uncertainty for the output. The storage rate of SOC in cropland soils of Canada for the 10‐year period ranged from 3.2 to 8.3 Mt C yr^?1 at 95% confidence, with a mean of 5.7 Mt C yr^?1. Approximately 67% (about 3.8 Mt C yr^?1) of the increase in SOC storage in Canada occurred in Saskatchewan where the cropland area under no‐till increased from 10% to 35%, and the area of summer‐fallow declined from 43% to 20% during the study period. The large uncertainty in the effect of no‐till on SOC stock changes in the Gray‐Brown Luvisols of Ontario contributed most to the variance in the model output. If trends in agricultural management continue for the next 10‐year census period, the estimated SOC storage would comprise between 7% and 19% of the gap required to achieve the 6% reduction in 1990 greenhouse gas emission levels for Canada under the Kyoto Protocol.     

Response of nitrogen cycling to simulated climate change: differential responses along a subalpine ecotone

In situ nitrogen (N) transformations and N availability were examined over a four‐year period in two soil microclimates (xeric and mesic) under a climate‐warming treatment in a subalpine meadow/sagebrush scrub ecotone. Experimental plots that spanned the two soil microclimates were exposed to an in situ infrared (IR) climate change manipulation at the Rocky Mountain Biological Laboratory, near Crested Butte, Colorado. Although the two microclimates did not differ significantly in their rates of N transformations in the absence of heating, they differed significantly in their response to increased IR. Under a simulated warming in the sagebrush‐dominated xeric microclimate, gross N mineralization rates doubled and immobilization rates increased by up to 60% over the first 2 years of the study but declined to predisturbance rates by the fourth year. This temporal pattern of gross mineralization rates correlated with a decline in SOM. Concurrently, rates of net mineralization rates in the heated plots were 60% higher than the controls after the first year. There were no differences in gross or net nitrification rates with heating in the xeric soils. In contrast to the xeric microclimate, there were no significant effects of heating on any N transformation rates in the mesic microclimate. The differing responses in N cycling rates of the two microclimate to the increased IR is most certainly the result of differences in initial soil moisture conditions and vegetation type and cover.     

Irrigation and enhanced soil carbon input effects on below-ground carbon cycling in semiarid temperate grasslands

Global climate change is generally expected to increase net primary production, resulting in increased soil carbon (C) inputs. To gain an understanding of how such increased soil C inputs would affect C cycling in the vast grasslands of northern China, we conducted a field experiment in which the responses of plant and microbial biomass and respiration were studied. Our experiment included the below-ground addition of particulate organic matter (POM) at rates equivalent to 0, 60, 120 and 240 g C m(-2), under either natural precipitation or under enhanced precipitation during the summer period (as predicted for that region in recent simulations using general circulation models). We observed that addition of POM had a large effect on soil microbial biomass and activity and that a major part of the added C was rapidly lost from the system. This suggests that microbial activity in the vast temperate grassland ecosystems of northern China is energy-limited. Moreover, POM addition (and the associated nutrient release) affected plant growth much more than the additional water input. Although we performed no direct fertilization experiments, the response of plant productivity to POM addition (and associated release of nutrients) leads us to believe that plant productivity in the semiarid grassland ecosystems of northern China is primarily limited by nutrients and not by water.     

Alternative explanations for rising dissolved organic carbon export from organic soils

Since 1988, there has been, on average, a 91% increase in dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentrations of UK lakes and streams in the Acid Waters Monitoring Network (AWMN). Similar DOC increases have been observed in surface waters across much of Europe and North America. Much of the debate about the causes of rising DOC has, as in other studies relating to the carbon cycle, focused on factors related to climate change. Data from our peat‐core experiments support an influence of climate on DOC, notably an increase in production with temperature under aerobic, and to a lesser extent anaerobic, conditions. However, we argue that climatic factors may not be the dominant drivers of DOC change. DOC solubility is suppressed by high soil water acidity and ionic strength, both of which have decreased as a result of declining sulphur deposition since the 1980s, augmented during the 1990s in the United Kingdom by a cyclical decline in sea‐salt deposition. Our observational and experimental data demonstrate a clear, inverse and quantitatively important link between DOC and sulphate concentrations in soil solution. Statistical analysis of 11 AWMN lakes suggests that rising temperature, declining sulphur deposition and changing sea‐salt loading can account for the majority of the observed DOC trend. This combination of evidence points to the changing chemical composition of atmospheric deposition, particularly the substantial reduction in anthropogenic sulphur emissions during the last 20 years, as a key cause of rising DOC. The implications of rising DOC export for the carbon cycle will be very different if linked primarily to decreasing acid deposition, rather than to changes in climate, suggesting that these systems may be recovering rather than destabilising.     

农田生态系统土壤有机碳库及其影响因子

土壤有机碳(SOC)的数量和质量在很大程度上与维持和提高土壤肥力密切相关。农田生态系统土壤碳库研究一直是农业、生态和环境领域的一个主要方向。土地利用、耕作、作物类型、种植密度、灌溉、施肥以及其他人为活动等,对农田生态系统土壤有机碳库的变化均能产生影响。本文综合评述了农田生态系统土壤有机碳库及其影响因子,土壤碳截获潜力,维持和提高土壤有机碳库的措施,以及农田土壤碳截获在温室气体减排及气候变化中的潜在作用等,最后提出了农田生态系统土壤有机碳库研究的主要方向。     

CO2 stabilization,climate change and the terrestrial carbon sink

A nonequilibrium, dynamic, global vegetation model, Hybrid v4.1, with a subdaily timestep, was driven by increasing CO₂ and transient climate output from the UK Hadley Centre GCM (HadCM2) with simulated daily and interannual variability. Three IPCC emission scenarios were used: (i) IS92a, giving 790 ppm CO₂ by 2100, (ii) CO₂ stabilization at 750 ppm by 2225, and (iii) CO₂ stabilization at 550 ppm by 2150. Land use and future N deposition were not included. In the IS92a scenario, boreal and tropical lands warmed 4.5 °C by 2100 with rainfall decreased in parts of the tropics, where temperatures increased over 6 °C in some years and vapour pressure deficits (VPD) doubled. Stabilization at 750 ppm CO₂ delayed these changes by about 100 years while stabilization at 550 ppm limited the rise in global land surface temperature to 2.5 °C and lessened the appearance of relatively hot, dry areas in the tropics. Present‐day global predictions were 645 PgC in vegetation, 1190 PgC in soils, a mean carbon residence time of 40 years, NPP 47 PgC y^?1 and NEP (the terrestrial sink) about 1 PgC y^?1, distributed at both high and tropical latitudes. With IS92a emissions, the high latitude sink increased to the year 2100, as forest NPP accelerated and forest vegetation carbon stocks increased. The tropics became a source of CO₂ as forest dieback occurred in relatively hot, dry areas in 2060–2080. High VPDs and temperatures reduced NPP in tropical forests, primarily by reducing stomatal conductance and increasing maintenance respiration. Global NEP peaked at 3–4 PgC y^?1 in 2020–2050 and then decreased abruptly to near zero by 2100 as the tropical source offset the high‐latitude sink. The pattern of change in NEP was similar with CO₂ stabilization at 750 ppm, but was delayed by about 100 years and with a less abrupt collapse in global NEP. CO₂ stabilization at 550 ppm prevented sustained tropical forest dieback and enabled recovery to occur in favourable years, while maintaining a similar time course of global NEP as occurred with 750 ppm stabilization. By lessening dieback, stabilization increased the fraction of carbon emissions taken up by the land. Comparable studies and other evidence are discussed: climate‐induced tropical forest dieback is considered a plausible risk of following an unmitigated emissions scenario.     

Projected changes in mineral soil carbon of European croplands and grasslands, 1990–2080

We present the most comprehensive pan‐European assessment of future changes in cropland and grassland soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks to date, using a dedicated process‐based SOC model and state‐of‐the‐art databases of soil, climate change, land‐use change and technology change. Soil carbon change was calculated using the Rothamsted carbon model on a European 10 × 10′ grid using climate data from four global climate models implementing four Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) emissions scenarios (SRES). Changes in net primary production (NPP) were calculated by the Lund–Potsdam–Jena model. Land‐use change scenarios, interpreted from the narratives of the IPCC SRES story lines, were used to project changes in cropland and grassland areas. Projections for 1990–2080 are presented for mineral soil only. Climate effects (soil temperature and moisture) will tend to speed decomposition and cause soil carbon stocks to decrease, whereas increases in carbon input because of increasing NPP will slow the loss. Technological improvement may further increase carbon inputs to the soil. Changes in cropland and grassland areas will further affect the total soil carbon stock of European croplands and grasslands. While climate change will be a key driver of change in soil carbon over the 21st Century, changes in technology and land‐use change are estimated to have very significant effects. When incorporating all factors, cropland and grassland soils show a small increase in soil carbon on a per area basis under future climate (1–7 t C ha^?1 for cropland and 3–6 t C ha^?1 for grassland), but when the greatly decreasing area of cropland and grassland are accounted for, total European cropland stocks decline in all scenarios, and grassland stocks decline in all but one scenario. Different trends are seen in different regions. For Europe (the EU25 plus Norway and Switzerland), the cropland SOC stock decreases from 11 Pg in 1990 by 4–6 Pg (39–54%) by 2080, and the grassland SOC stock increases from 6 Pg in 1990 to 1.5 Pg (25%) under the B1 scenario, but decreases to 1–3 Pg (20–44%) under the other scenarios. Uncertainty associated with the land‐use and technology scenarios remains unquantified, but worst‐case quantified uncertainties are 22.5% for croplands and 16% for grasslands, equivalent to potential errors of 2.5 and 1 Pg SOC, respectively. This is equivalent to 42–63% of the predicted SOC stock change for croplands and 33–100% of the predicted SOC stock change for grasslands. Implications for accounting for SOC changes under the Kyoto Protocol are discussed.     

Implications of CO2 fertilization for future climate change in a coupled climate–carbon model

The terrestrial carbon cycle plays a critical role in determining levels of atmospheric CO₂ that result from anthropogenic carbon emissions. Elevated atmospheric CO₂ is thought to stimulate terrestrial carbon uptake, through the process of CO₂ fertilization of vegetation productivity. This negative carbon cycle feedback results in reduced atmospheric CO₂ growth, and has likely accounted for a substantial portion of the historical terrestrial carbon sink. However, the future strength of CO₂ fertilization in response to continued carbon emissions and atmospheric CO₂ rise is highly uncertain. In this paper, the ramifications of CO₂ fertilization in simulations of future climate change are explored, using an intermediate complexity coupled climate–carbon model. It is shown that the absence of future CO₂ fertilization results in substantially higher future CO₂ levels in the atmosphere, as this removes the dominant contributor to future terrestrial carbon uptake in the model. As a result, climate changes are larger, though the radiative effect of higher CO₂ on surface temperatures in the model is offset by about 30% due to reduced positive dynamic vegetation feedbacks; that is, the removal of CO₂ fertilization results in less vegetation expansion in the model, which would otherwise constitute an important positive surface albedo‐temperature feedback. However, the effect of larger climate changes has other important implications for the carbon cycle – notably to further weaken remaining carbon sinks in the model. As a result, positive climate–carbon cycle feedbacks are larger when CO₂ fertilization is absent. This creates an interesting synergism of terrestrial carbon cycle feedbacks, whereby positive (climate–carbon cycle) feedbacks are amplified when a negative (CO₂ fertilization) feedback is removed.     

土壤有机碳和外源添加碳对水稻土土体呼吸的影响

土体呼吸输出碳来源于土壤固有有机碳和外源添加碳,而以往关于不同施肥措施对水稻土碳排放的研究少有区分碳的来源。本试验利用一个长达30年的水稻土定位试验,在保证原有定位试验继续正常开展的前提下变更部分施肥处理,得到继续施用高量有机肥(HOM)、施用常量有机肥30年后改施高量有机肥(N-H)、继续施用常量有机肥(NOM)、施用化肥30年后改施常量有机肥(C-N)、施用高量有机肥30年后改施化肥(H-C)、施用常量有机肥30年后改施化肥(N-C)、继续施用化肥(CF)等7种施肥处理。通过观测早稻生长期间原有施肥和改施肥处理土体CO2排放通量(FCO2),研究不同后续施肥对水稻土FCO2的影响,以期探讨土壤原始有机碳和外源添加碳对土壤FCO2的影响。结果表明:7种不同施肥处理土体CO2平均排放通量(F珔CO2)分别为85.34、69.10、51.27、49.15、14.89、12.92和11.59 mg C.m-2.h-1;对施用无机肥料和常量有机肥料的土体而言,土壤本身有机碳含量对F珔CO2无显著影响,但对施用高量有机肥的土体而言,土壤本身的高有机碳含量会增强F珔CO2;CO2排放通量(Y)与添加外源碳量(x)之间符合指数方程:Y=13.33e1.719 x(R2=0.967,n=21),施入的外源有机碳对土体FCO2产生极显著影响;当季外源添加碳以CO2-C矿化分解释放的碳占其总碳量的14%左右,且该分解率受土壤有机碳含量和有机物料添加量的影响较小。