A New Extension of the Binomial Error Model for Responses to Items of Varying Difficulty in Educational Testing and Attitude Surveys

We put forward a new item response model which is an extension of the binomial error model first introduced by Keats and Lord. Like the binomial error model, the basic latent variable can be interpreted as a probability of responding in a certain way to an arbitrarily specified item. For a set of dichotomous items, this model gives predictions that are similar to other single parameter IRT models (such as the Rasch model) but has certain advantages in more complex cases. The first is that in specifying a flexible two-parameter Beta distribution for the latent variable, it is easy to formulate models for randomized experiments in which there is no reason to believe that either the latent variable or its distribution vary over randomly composed experimental groups. Second, the elementary response function is such that extensions to more complex cases (e.g., polychotomous responses, unfolding scales) are straightforward. Third, the probability metric of the latent trait allows tractable extensions to cover a wide variety of stochastic response processes.     

Modeling the dependence between number of trials and success probability in beta-binomial-Poisson mixture distributions

Beta-binomial models are widely used for overdispersed binomial data, with the binomial success probability modeled as following a beta distribution. The number of binary trials in each binomial is assumed to be nonrandom and unrelated to the success probability. In many behavioral studies, however, binomial observations demonstrate more complex structures. In this article, a general beta-binomial-Poisson mixture model is developed, to allow for a relation between the number of trials and the success probability for overdispersed binomial data. An EM algorithm is implemented to compute both the maximum likelihood estimates of the model parameters and the corresponding standard errors. For illustration, the methodology is applied to study the feeding behavior of green-backed herons in two southeastern Missouri streams.     

Functional heterogeneity at the frog sensory-motor synapse

This article compares four models of amplitude fluctuations in postsynaptic potentials. The convolution of two binomial distributions and the beta model proved the best fit with experimentally obtained data (as compared with the binomial model). The beta model is based on the assumption that the probability of quantal transmitter release is a random variable with a beta distribution. Numbers of quantal generators as estimated by the beta model were found to resemble numbers of morphological identifiable synaptic boutons. Findings from research using this model showed that the binomial parameter n may be interpreted as the number of transmitter release sites functioning with a probability in excess of 0.2. The findings obtained confirm the postulated functional diversity of release sites at interneuronal synapses.I. M. Sechenov Institute of Evolutionary Physiology and Biochemistry, Academy of Sciences of the USSR, Leningrad. Translated from Neirofiziologiya, Vol. 21, No. 6, pp. 780–788, November–December, 1989.     

Promotion time models with time-changing exposure and heterogeneity: application to infectious diseases

Promotion time models have been recently adapted to the context of infectious diseases to take into account discrete and multiple exposures. However, Poisson distribution of the number of pathogens transmitted at each exposure was a very strong assumption and did not allow for inter-individual heterogeneity. Bernoulli, the negative binomial, and the compound Poisson distributions were proposed as alternatives to Poisson distribution for the promotion time model with time-changing exposure. All were derived within the frailty model framework. All these distributions have a point mass at zero to take into account non-infected people. Bernoulli distribution, the two-component cure rate model, was extended to multiple exposures. Contrary to the negative binomial and the compound Poisson distributions, Bernoulli distribution did not enable to connect the number of pathogens transmitted to the delay between transmission and infection detection. Moreover, the two former distributions enable to account for inter-individual heterogeneity. The delay to surgical site infection was an example of single exposure. The probability of infection was very low; thus, estimation of the effect of selected risk factors on that probability obtained with Bernoulli and Poisson distributions were very close. The delay to nosocomial urinary tract infection was a multiple exposure example. The probabilities of pathogen transmission during catheter placement and catheter presence were estimated. Inter-individual heterogeneity was very high, and the fit was better with the compound Poisson and the negative binomial distributions. The proposed models proved to be also mechanistic. The negative binomial and the compound Poisson distributions were useful alternatives to account for inter-individual heterogeneity.     

Analysis of vesicular-arbuscular mycorrhizal colonization data with a logistic regression model

 Vesicular-arbuscular mycorrhizal (VAM) infection is usually expressed as percentage of root length colonized. The frequency distributions of the data are often non-normal and may follow a negative binomial distribution. Data transformation, such as an arcsin of percentage colonization, may be used to help colonization data satisfy the normal distribution assumption, but is not always successful. In this paper, we compare ANOVA and logistic regression model (LRM) analysis of data on the effect of phosphorus fertilization and corn cultivar on VAM colonization. Transformed data did not fit a normal distribution, and we propose the LRM as a better model for statistical analysis of VAM colonization. The LRM is more accurate because (1) this model assumes a binomial distribution, (2) it incorporates the original sample size into the probability estimation, and (3) the model uses non-transformed data, which are easier to interpret. Accepted: 3 November ▪▪▪     

Use of the beta-binomial distribution in dominant-lethal testing for "weak mutagenic activity".

When the results of biological experiments are tested statistically for a possible difference between a treatment and its control, the statistical inferences are valid only if the statistical procedure is derived from a model that fits the experimental results satisfactorily. In this paper it is shown that a beta-binomial distribution provided a better fit than a binomial distribution when the data used were based on a large number of counts of dead and total implants on dominant-lethal tests on mice. This suggests that the probability P that an implant will die is not constant over the experimental units. Tests derived from the beta-biomial distribution have been used and their results compared with those of the tests based on the binomial or constant P assumption. The tests based on the binomial model are erroneously too severe when P is not constant in a group. The problem of knowing whether the males or the females should be considered as the experimental units is considered. In this paper, calculations are carried out for the two situations. This problem will be further studied by computer simulation and the result will be presented in a next paper.It is also shown that a negative binomial distribution could be fitted to the dead implant counts. No test based on this model was used because it ignores the total implants. No familiar distribution could be fitted to the total implant counts.     

Analyzing Short-Term Noise Dependencies of Spike-Counts in Macaque Prefrontal Cortex Using Copulas and the Flashlight Transformation

Simultaneous spike-counts of neural populations are typically modeled by a Gaussian distribution. On short time scales, however, this distribution is too restrictive to describe and analyze multivariate distributions of discrete spike-counts. We present an alternative that is based on copulas and can account for arbitrary marginal distributions, including Poisson and negative binomial distributions as well as second and higher-order interactions. We describe maximum likelihood-based procedures for fitting copula-based models to spike-count data, and we derive a so-called flashlight transformation which makes it possible to move the tail dependence of an arbitrary copula into an arbitrary orthant of the multivariate probability distribution. Mixtures of copulas that combine different dependence structures and thereby model different driving processes simultaneously are also introduced. First, we apply copula-based models to populations of integrate-and-fire neurons receiving partially correlated input and show that the best fitting copulas provide information about the functional connectivity of coupled neurons which can be extracted using the flashlight transformation. We then apply the new method to data which were recorded from macaque prefrontal cortex using a multi-tetrode array. We find that copula-based distributions with negative binomial marginals provide an appropriate stochastic model for the multivariate spike-count distributions rather than the multivariate Poisson latent variables distribution and the often used multivariate normal distribution. The dependence structure of these distributions provides evidence for common inhibitory input to all recorded stimulus encoding neurons. Finally, we show that copula-based models can be successfully used to evaluate neural codes, e.g., to characterize stimulus-dependent spike-count distributions with information measures. This demonstrates that copula-based models are not only a versatile class of models for multivariate distributions of spike-counts, but that those models can be exploited to understand functional dependencies.     

Testing transition rates in generalized binomial models

In toxicological experiments the type II error is of important interest, but it is seldom discussed. For certain experiments like those in reproduction toxicology this paper gives some ideas to calculate it analytically. The basis is a generalized binomial model describing transition processes in experimental units. Each experimental unit contains a set of × members which develop from one to another specified state with some probability P. This transition probability P is allowed to vary from one experimental unit to the other; there is no restriction on the distribution of P and X, nor is P assumed to be independent of the total number × in contrast to the commonly used models. The model is extended to describe the treatment of an experimental unit, which permits to separate the treatment effect from the spontaneous development. This allows to investigate the power of some statistical tests for calculating sample sizes and for comparing different experimental designs.     

吉林蛟河阔叶红松林物种多度分布模型研究

以吉林蛟河阔叶红松林的木本植物为研究对象,将30hm²的样地面积划分为5m×5m,10m×10m,20m×20m,25m×25m的连续取样单元,在4个不同尺度下分别统计各物种在每个取样单元中的有无,得到每个物种在不同尺度下的取样单元数。利用随机分布模型和负二项分布模型分析物种的多度分布,对比预测多度与观测多度讨论两个模型的科学性与实用性。结果表明：对于阔叶红松林而言,负二项分布模型在所有研究尺度上的预测精度都要优于随机分布模型。随机分布和负二项分布的模型预测误差随着研究尺度的增大而增大,因此选取较小的取样单元可以切实提高物种多度的预测精度。利用随机分布和负二项分布模型对多度较小的物种进行预测的效果要优于多度较大的物种。负二项分布模型适合用来模拟阔叶红松林的物种多度分布格局,并且模型的拟合效果受取样单元大小影响。     

Bayesian semiparametric analysis of developmental toxicology data

Modeling of developmental toxicity studies often requires simple parametric analyses of the dose-response relationship between exposure and probability of a birth defect but poses challenges because of nonstandard distributions of birth defects for a fixed level of exposure. This article is motivated by two such experiments in which the distribution of the outcome variable is challenging to both the standard logistic model with binomial response and its parametric multistage elaborations. We approach our analysis using a Bayesian semiparametric model that we tailored specifically to developmental toxicology studies. It combines parametric dose-response relationships with a flexible nonparametric specification of the distribution of the response, obtained via a product of Dirichlet process mixtures approach (PDPM). Our formulation achieves three goals: (1) the distribution of the response is modeled in a general way, (2) the degree to which the distribution of the response adapts nonparametrically to the observations is driven by the data, and (3) the marginal posterior distribution of the parameters of interest is available in closed form. The logistic regression model, as well as many of its extensions such as the beta-binomial model and finite mixture models, are special cases. In the context of the two motivating examples and a simulated example, we provide model comparisons, illustrate overdispersion diagnostics that can assist model specification, show how to derive posterior distributions of the effective dose parameters and predictive distributions of response, and discuss the sensitivity of the results to the choice of the prior distribution.     

On a Model for Estimating the Parameter of the Human Reproductive Process

Attempt has been made in this paper to estimate certain parameters (data pertaining to which are either not available or easily reportable) of the human reproductive process as the period of postpartum ammenorrhoea (P.P.A.), number of foetal wastages in between live births etc., using a truncated negative binomial probability model. In view of the hypothesis that the probability of foetal wastages varies from mother to mother, the truncated negative binomial distribution has been compounded by weighing with the best prior Beta distribution of the parameter. Estimation has been made by successive approximation using the method of moments.     

负二项分布与昆虫种群空间格局分析的研究现状

对农业有害生物及其天敌种群密度的正确估计是实施IPM(有害生物综合治理)方案的先决条件,因此,抽样方法一直被列为昆虫学,生态学和植物保护科学中最重要的基本     

Use of compound-probability distributions in the study of induced post-implantation dominant lethals

The nature of the probability distribution of post-implantation dominant lethality was investigated in terms of the distribution of dead implants per female. It has been postulated that this distribution would be poisson in a control series of females but may follow a compound or a contagious distribution such as the beta binomial, negative binomial or Neyman type A in the treated series of females. The nature of these compound distributions for fitting mammalian mutagenicity has been examined. The implications of the results on the estimation of induced mutation rates are discussed.     

COMPARISON OF METHODS FOR ANALYZING REPLICATED PREFERENCE TESTS

Preference testing is commonly used in consumer sensory evaluation. Traditionally, it is done without replication, effectively leading to a single 0/1 (binary) measurement on each panelist. However, to understand the nature of the preference, replicated preference tests are a better approach, resulting in binomial counts of preferences on each panelist. Variability among panelists then leads to overdispersion of the counts when the binomial model is used and to an inflated Type I error rate for statistical tests of preference. Overdispersion can be adjusted by Pearson correction or by other models such as correlated binomial or beta‐binomial. Several methods are suggested or reviewed in this study for analyzing replicated preference tests and their Type I error rates and power are compared. Simulation studies show that all methods have reasonable Type I error rates and similar power. Among them, the binomial model with Pearson adjustment is probably the safest way to analyze replicated preference tests, while a normal model in which the binomial distribution is not assumed is the easiest.     

The inference of antigen selection on Ig genes

Analysis of somatic mutations in V regions of Ig genes is important for understanding various biological processes. It is customary to estimate Ag selection on Ig genes by assessment of replacement (R) as opposed to silent (S) mutations in the complementary-determining regions and S as opposed to R mutations in the framework regions. In the past such an evaluation was performed using a binomial distribution model equation, which is inappropriate for Ig genes in which mutations have four different distribution possibilities (R and S mutations in the complementary-determining region and/or framework regions of the gene). In the present work, we propose a multinomial distribution model for assessment of Ag selection. Side-by-side application of multinomial and binomial models on 86 previously established Ig sequences disclosed 8 discrepancies, leading to opposite statistical conclusions about Ag selection. We suggest the use of the multinomial model for all future analysis of Ag selection.     

Partitioning Detectability Components in Populations Subject to Within-Season Temporary Emigration Using Binomial Mixture Models

Detectability of individual animals is highly variable and nearly always < 1; imperfect detection must be accounted for to reliably estimate population sizes and trends. Hierarchical models can simultaneously estimate abundance and effective detection probability, but there are several different mechanisms that cause variation in detectability. Neglecting temporary emigration can lead to biased population estimates because availability and conditional detection probability are confounded. In this study, we extend previous hierarchical binomial mixture models to account for multiple sources of variation in detectability. The state process of the hierarchical model describes ecological mechanisms that generate spatial and temporal patterns in abundance, while the observation model accounts for the imperfect nature of counting individuals due to temporary emigration and false absences. We illustrate our model’s potential advantages, including the allowance of temporary emigration between sampling periods, with a case study of southern red-backed salamanders Plethodon serratus. We fit our model and a standard binomial mixture model to counts of terrestrial salamanders surveyed at 40 sites during 3–5 surveys each spring and fall 2010–2012. Our models generated similar parameter estimates to standard binomial mixture models. Aspect was the best predictor of salamander abundance in our case study; abundance increased as aspect became more northeasterly. Increased time-since-rainfall strongly decreased salamander surface activity (i.e. availability for sampling), while higher amounts of woody cover objects and rocks increased conditional detection probability (i.e. probability of capture, given an animal is exposed to sampling). By explicitly accounting for both components of detectability, we increased congruence between our statistical modeling and our ecological understanding of the system. We stress the importance of choosing survey locations and protocols that maximize species availability and conditional detection probability to increase population parameter estimate reliability.     

Robustness of group testing in the estimation of proportions

In binomial group testing, unlike one-at-a-time testing, the test unit consists of a group of individuals, and each group is declared to be defective or nondefective. A defective group is one that is presumed to include one or more defective (e.g., infected, positive) individuals and a nondefective group to contain only nondefective individuals. The usual binomial model considers the individuals being grouped as independent and identically distributed Bernoulli random variables. Under the binomial model and presuming that groups are tested and classified without error, it has been shown that, when the proportion of defective individuals is low, group testing is often preferable to individual testing for identifying infected individuals and for estimating proportions of defectives. We discuss the robustness of group testing for estimating proportions when the underlying assumptions of (i) no testing errors and (ii) independent individuals are violated. To evaluate the effect of these model violations, two dilution-effect models and a serial correlation model are considered. Group testing proved to be quite robust to serial correlation. In the presence of a dilution effect, smaller group sizes should be used, but most of the benefits of group testing can still be realized.     

Detecting spatial aggregation from distance sampling: a probability distribution model of nearest neighbor distance

Spatial point pattern is an important tool for describing the spatial distribution of species in ecology. Negative binomial distribution (NBD) is widely used to model spatial aggregation. In this paper, we derive the probability distribution model of event-to-event nearest neighbor distance (distance from a focal individual to its n-th nearest individual). Compared with the probability distribution model of point-to-event nearest neighbor distance (distance from a randomly distributed sampling point to the n-th nearest individual), the new probability distribution model is more flexible. We propose that spatial aggregation can be detected by fitting this probability distribution model to event-to-event nearest neighbor distances. The performance is evaluated using both simulated and empirical spatial point patterns.