气候变暖对领春木沿海拔分布潜在影响的实验模拟

在神农架山地不同海拔高度进行领春木(Euptelea pleiospermum)种子萌发实验和萌发后实生幼苗的存活状况研究,模拟气候变化对领春木分布的潜在影响.结果显示:(1)林窗内种子萌发率显著高于林下,林下的幼苗全部死亡;(2)在领春木的分布上限(2090 m)和以上区域种子萌发率高,且幼苗死亡率低,在领春木的分布下限(900 m)和以下区域种子萌发率低,且除620 m阳坡林下以外,幼苗均全部死亡;(3)种源对领春木种子萌发率和幼苗死亡率均无显著影响;(4)冬季播种的种子比春季播种种子萌发率低,萌发后幼苗死亡率高.研究结果表明,珍稀植物领春木具备向高海拔地区迁移的潜能,但向高海拔的迁移扩散可能会受到一定的限制;在低海拔区域,领春木幼苗更新受到威胁,但一些小生境可以缓冲气候变暖带来的威胁.     

Use of Carboxylated Microspheres to Assess Transport Potential of Cryptosporidium parvum Oocysts at the Russian River Water Supply Facility,Sonoma County,California

Carboxylated microspheres were employed as surrogates to assess the transport potential of Cryptosporidium parvumoocysts during forced- and natural-gradient tests conducted in July and October 2004. The tests involved poorly-sorted, near-surface sediments where groundwater is pumped from an alluvial aquifer underlying the Russian River, Sonoma County, CA. In an off channel infiltration basin and within the river, a mixture (2-, 3-, and 5- μm diameters) of fluorescently-labeled carboxylated microspheres and bromide tracers were used in two injection and recovery tests to assess sediment removal efficiency for the microspheres. Bottom sediments varied considerably in their filtration efficiency for Cryptosporidium.     

Estimating the Potential for Adaptation of Corals to Climate Warming

The persistence of tropical coral reefs is threatened by rapidly increasing climate warming, causing a functional breakdown of the obligate symbiosis between corals and their algal photosymbionts (Symbiodinium) through a process known as coral bleaching. Yet the potential of the coral-algal symbiosis to genetically adapt in an evolutionary sense to warming oceans is unknown. Using a quantitative genetics approach, we estimated the proportion of the variance in thermal tolerance traits that has a genetic basis (i.e. heritability) as a proxy for their adaptive potential in the widespread Indo-Pacific reef-building coral Acropora millepora. We chose two physiologically different populations that associate respectively with one thermo-tolerant (Symbiodinium clade D) and one less tolerant symbiont type (Symbiodinium C2). In both symbiont types, pulse amplitude modulated (PAM) fluorometry and high performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) analysis revealed significant heritabilities for traits related to both photosynthesis and photoprotective pigment profile. However, quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction (qRT-PCR) assays showed a lack of heritability in both coral host populations for their own expression of fundamental stress genes. Coral colony growth, contributed to by both symbiotic partners, displayed heritability. High heritabilities for functional key traits of algal symbionts, along with their short clonal generation time and high population sizes allow for their rapid thermal adaptation. However, the low overall heritability of coral host traits, along with the corals'' long generation time, raise concern about the timely adaptation of the coral-algal symbiosis in the face of continued rapid climate warming.     

Impacts of Grazing and Climate Warming on C Pools and Decomposition Rates in Arctic Environments

Arctic ecosystems are important habitats for Arctic breeding geese which in their turn have a profound impact on the vegetation in these areas. The herbivore pressure is currently on the rise in the region and may interact with climate change to drive changes in both productivity and decomposition rates. In this study, we aim to determine the combined impact of warming and geese on C pools and decomposition in two high Arctic habitats, mesic heath and wet meadow. We employed field-experimental warming and grazing treatments in a fully factorial design and quantified their impact on ecosystems C pools and turnover. High grazing levels reduced vascular biomass and litter C pools at both sites, whereas warming reduced moss biomass at the mesic site only. Grazing increased decomposition rates and reduced the amount of labile C in the soil at the mesic site, whereas warming substantially reduced C concentrations by approximately 25%. Intermediate level of grazing had an opposite effect and resulted in increased soil C storage at the mesic site. In contrast, no effects of the treatment on belowground C cycling were found at the wet site. In conclusion, the two levels of grazing and warming impacted on different aspects of the C cycle investigated in this study. The high grazing and warming treatment promoted reduced carbon storage/decomposition both above- and belowground with the strongest effects seen at the mesic site.     

Potential Impacts of Future Warming and Land Use Changes on Intra-Urban Heat Exposure in Houston,Texas

Extreme heat events in the United States are projected to become more frequent and intense as a result of climate change. We investigated the individual and combined effects of land use and warming on the spatial and temporal distribution of daily minimum temperature (T_min) and daily maximum heat index (HI_max) during summer in Houston, Texas. Present-day (2010) and near-future (2040) parcel-level land use scenarios were embedded within 1-km resolution land surface model (LSM) simulations. For each land use scenario, LSM simulations were conducted for climatic scenarios representative of both the present-day and near-future periods. LSM simulations assuming present-day climate but 2040 land use patterns led to spatially heterogeneous temperature changes characterized by warmer conditions over most areas, with summer average increases of up to 1.5°C (T_min) and 7.3°C (HI_max) in some newly developed suburban areas compared to simulations using 2010 land use patterns. LSM simulations assuming present-day land use but a 1°C temperature increase above the urban canopy (consistent with warming projections for 2040) yielded more spatially homogeneous metropolitan-wide average increases of about 1°C (T_min) and 2.5°C (HI_max), respectively. LSM simulations assuming both land use and warming for 2040 led to summer average increases of up to 2.5°C (T_min) and 8.3°C (HI_max), with the largest increases in areas projected to be converted to residential, industrial and mixed-use types. Our results suggest that urbanization and climate change may significantly increase the average number of summer days that exceed current threshold temperatures for initiating a heat advisory for metropolitan Houston, potentially increasing population exposure to extreme heat.     

全球气候变化对沈阳地区春玉米生长的可能影响

Physiological ecology simulation modelling of maize growth (MPESM) was used to simulate the variation of soil moisture, maize development and maize growth under twelve prescribed climate scenarios, which include doubling CO2, raising mean temperature by 1.5 ℃, 3.0 ℃ and 4.5 ℃, and changing precipitation by 0, +20%, -20%, and -40%. The simulated results were compared with that of the present climate, to assess the sensitivity of maize to climatic change. The analysis indicated that soil moisture is sensitive to reduced precipitation, maize development is sensitive to the rise of temperature, and maize growth is affected greatly by temperature elevation and precipitation variation, which cancel out the positive effects of CO2 elevation. It was found that with the severe change of climate, the leaf biomass, the female fringe biomass, and the leaf area index would decline greatly, and the biomass of stem and root would increase greatly. The average yield of maize will decline between 5% and 30%.     

全球气候变化对沈阳地区春玉米生长的可能影响

利用玉米（Ｚｅａ ｍａｙｓ Ｌ．）生长生理生态学模拟模型（ＭＰＥＳＭ）,分别模拟了未来气候变化的１２种气候条件下（ＣＯ２浓度倍增,平均气温上升１．５℃、３．０℃和４．５℃,降水量增加２０％、减少２０％、减少４０％和降水量不变）,沈阳地区土壤湿度、玉米发育和玉米生长的变化,并与当前条件下进行了比较,以评价玉米生长对各气候因子变化的敏感性和全球气候变化下沈阳地区春玉米的生长趋势。研究表明：土壤湿度对降     

Climate Change Impacts on Streamflow and Subbasin-Scale Hydrology in the Upper Colorado River Basin

In the Upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB), the principal source of water in the southwestern U.S., demand exceeds supply in most years, and will likely continue to rise. While General Circulation Models (GCMs) project surface temperature warming by 3.5 to 5.6°C for the area, precipitation projections are variable, with no wetter or drier consensus. We assess the impacts of projected 21^st century climatic changes on subbasins in the UCRB using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool, for all hydrologic components (snowmelt, evapotranspiration, surface runoff, subsurface runoff, and streamflow), and for 16 GCMs under the A2 emission scenario. Over the GCM ensemble, our simulations project median Spring streamflow declines of 36% by the end of the 21^st century, with increases more likely at higher elevations, and an overall range of −100 to +68%. Additionally, our results indicated Summer streamflow declines with median decreases of 46%, and an overall range of −100 to +22%. Analysis of hydrologic components indicates large spatial and temporal changes throughout the UCRB, with large snowmelt declines and temporal shifts in most hydrologic components. Warmer temperatures increase average annual evapotranspiration by ∼23%, with shifting seasonal soil moisture availability driving these increases in late Winter and early Spring. For the high-elevation water-generating regions, modest precipitation decreases result in an even greater water yield decrease with less available snowmelt. Precipitation increases with modest warming do not translate into the same magnitude of water-yield increases due to slight decreases in snowmelt and increases in evapotranspiration. For these basins, whether modest warming is associated with precipitation decreases or increases, continued rising temperatures may make drier futures. Subsequently, many subbasins are projected to turn from semi-arid to arid conditions by the 2080 s. In conclusion, water availability in the UCRB could significantly decline with adverse consequences for water supplies, agriculture, and ecosystem health.     

Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Insect Communities: A Transplant Experiment

Climate change will have profound impacts on the distribution, abundance and ecology of all species. We used a multi-species transplant experiment to investigate the potential effects of a warmer climate on insect community composition and structure. Eight native Australian plant species were transplanted into sites approximately 2.5°C (mean annual temperature) warmer than their native range. Subsequent insect colonisation was monitored for 12 months. We compared the insect communities on transplanted host plants at the warmer sites with control plants transplanted within the species'' native range. Comparisons of the insect communities were also made among transplanted plants at warmer sites and congeneric plant species native to the warmer transplant area. We found that the morphospecies composition of the colonising Coleoptera and Hemiptera communities differed markedly between transplants at the control compared to the warmer sites. Community structure, as described by the distribution of feeding guilds, was also found to be different between the controls and transplants when the entire Coleoptera and Hemiptera community, including non-herbivore feeding guilds, was considered. However, the structure of the herbivorous insect community showed a higher level of consistency between plants at control and warm sites. There were marked differences in community composition and feeding guild structure, for both herbivores and non-herbivores, between transplants and congenerics at the warm sites. These results suggest that as the climate warms, considerable turnover in the composition of insect communities may occur, but insect herbivore communities may retain elements of their present-day structure.     

Synchrony of Seed Dispersal, Hydrology and Local Climate in a Semi-arid River Reach in California

The temporal availability of propagules is a critical factor in sustaining pioneer riparian tree populations along snowmelt-driven rivers because seedling establishment is strongly linked to seasonal hydrology. River regulation in semi-arid regions threatens to decouple seed development and dispersal from the discharge regime to which they evolved. Using the lower Tuolumne River as a model system, we quantified and modeled propagule availability for Populus fremontii (POFR), Salix gooddingii (SAGO), and Salix exigua (SAEX), the tree and shrub species that dominate near-channel riparian stands in the San Joaquin Basin, CA. A degree-day model was fit to field data of seasonal seed density and local temperature from three sites in 2002–2004 to predict the onset of the peak dispersal period. To evaluate historical synchrony of seed dispersal and seasonal river hydrology, we compared peak spring runoff timing to modeled peak seed release periods for the last 75 years. The peak seed release period began on May 15 for POFR (range April 23–June 10), May 30 for SAGO (range May 19–June 11) and May 31 for SAEX (range May 8–June 30). Degree-day models for the onset of seed release reduced prediction error by 40–67% over day-of-year means; the models predicted best the interannual, versus site-to-site, variation in timing. The historical analysis suggests that POFR seed release coincided with peak runoff in almost all years, whereas SAGO and SAEX dispersal occurred during the spring flood recession. The degree-day modeling approach reduce uncertainty in dispersal timing and shows potential for guiding flow releases on regulated rivers to increase riparian tree recruitment at the lowest water cost.     

未来气候变化对孑遗植物鹅掌楸地理分布的影响

为了解未来气候波动对鹅掌楸(Liriodendron chinense)潜在适生区的影响,利用最大熵模型(Maxent)和地理信息系统(ArcGIS)软件,结合物种地理分布点信息,对鹅掌楸当前适生区分布进行了模拟和划分,同时预测了2061-2080年间气候变化条件下鹅掌楸的潜在适生分布区变化,进而分析影响鹅掌楸地理分布...     

Predicting the Impacts of Climate Change on the Potential Distribution of Major Native Non-Food Bioenergy Plants in China

Planting non-food bioenergy crops on marginal lands is an alternative bioenergy development solution in China. Native non-food bioenergy plants are also considered to be a wise choice to reduce the threat of invasive plants. In this study, the impacts of climate change (a consensus of IPCC scenarios A2a for 2080) on the potential distribution of nine non-food bioenergy plants native to China (viz., Pistacia chinensis, Cornus wilsoniana, Xanthoceras sorbifolia, Vernicia fordii, Sapium sebiferum, Miscanthus sinensis, M. floridulus, M. sacchariflorus and Arundo donax) were analyzed using a MaxEnt species distribution model. The suitable habitats of the nine non-food plants were distributed in the regions east of the Mongolian Plateau and the Tibetan Plateau, where the arable land is primarily used for food production. Thus, the large-scale cultivation of those plants for energy production will have to rely on the marginal lands. The variables of “precipitation of the warmest quarter” and “annual mean temperature” were the most important bioclimatic variables for most of the nine plants according to the MaxEnt modeling results. Global warming in coming decades may result in a decrease in the extent of suitable habitat in the tropics but will have little effect on the total distribution area of each plant. The results indicated that it will be possible to grow these plants on marginal lands within these areas in the future. This work should be beneficial for the domestication and cultivation of those bioenergy plants and should facilitate land-use planning for bioenergy crops in China.     

Potential Effects of Climate Change on the Water Level,Flora and Macro-fauna of a Large Neotropical Wetland

Possible consequences of climate change in one of the world’s largest wetlands (Ibera, Argentina) were analysed using a multi-scale approach. Climate projections coupled to hydrological models were used to analyse variability in wetland water level throughout the current century. Two potential scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions were explored, both resulting in an increase in the inter-annual fluctuations of the water level. In the scenario with higher emissions, projections also showed a long-term negative trend in water-level. To explore the possible response of biota to such water-level changes, species-area relationships of flora and aerial censuses of macro-fauna were analysed during an extraordinary dry period. Plant species richness at the basin scale was found to be highly resistant to hydrological changes, as the large dimension of the wetland acts to buffer against the water-level variations. However, local diversity decreased significantly with low water levels, leading to the loss of ecosystem resilience to additional stressors. The analysis of macro-fauna populations suggested that wetland provides refuge, in low water periods, for the animals with high dispersal ability (aquatic and migratory birds). On the contrary, the abundance of animals with low dispersal ability (mainly herbivorous species) was negatively impacted in low water periods, probably because they are required to search for alternative resources beyond the wetland borders. This period of resource scarcity was also related to increased mortality of large mammals (e.g. marsh deer) around water bodies with high anthropogenic enrichment and cyanobacteria dominance. The synergy between recurrent climatic fluctuations and additional stressors (i.e. biological invasions, eutrophication) presents an important challenge to the conservation of neotropical wetlands in the coming decades.     

Quantifying and Valuing Potential Climate Change Impacts on Coral Reefs in the United States: Comparison of Two Scenarios

The biological and economic values of coral reefs are highly vulnerable to increasing atmospheric and ocean carbon dioxide concentrations. We applied the COMBO simulation model (COral Mortality and Bleaching Output) to three major U.S. locations for shallow water reefs: South Florida, Puerto Rico, and Hawaii. We compared estimates of future coral cover from 2000 to 2100 for a “business as usual” (BAU) greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions scenario with a GHG mitigation policy scenario involving full international participation in reducing GHG emissions. We also calculated the economic value of changes in coral cover using a benefit transfer approach based on published studies of consumers'' recreational values for snorkeling and diving on coral reefs as well as existence values for coral reefs. Our results suggest that a reduced emissions scenario would provide a large benefit to shallow water reefs in Hawaii by delaying or avoiding potential future bleaching events. For Hawaii, reducing emissions is projected to result in an estimated “avoided loss” from 2000 to 2100 of approximately $10.6 billion in recreational use values compared to a BAU scenario. However, reducing emissions is projected to provide only a minor economic benefit in Puerto Rico and South Florida, where sea-surface temperatures are already close to bleaching thresholds and coral cover is projected to drop well below 5% cover under both scenarios by 2050, and below 1% cover under both scenarios by 2100.     

The Impact of Forest Thinning on the Reliability of Water Supply in Central Arizona

Economic growth in Central Arizona, as in other semiarid systems characterized by low and variable rainfall, has historically depended on the effectiveness of strategies to manage water supply risks. Traditionally, the management of supply risks includes three elements: hard infrastructures, landscape management within the watershed, and a supporting set of institutions of which water markets are frequently the most important. In this paper we model the interactions between these elements. A forest restoration initiative in Central Arizona (the Four Forest Restoration Initiative, or 4FRI) will result in thinning of ponderosa pine forests in the upper watershed, with potential implications for both sedimentation rates and water delivery to reservoirs. Specifically, we model the net effect of ponderosa pine forest thinning across the Salt and Verde River watersheds on the reliability and cost of water supply to the Phoenix metropolitan area. We conclude that the sediment impacts of forest thinning (up to 50% of canopy cover) are unlikely to compromise the reliability of the reservoir system while thinning has the potential to increase annual water supply by 8%. This represents an estimated net present value of surface water storage of $104 million, considering both water consumption and hydropower generation.