Modeling the Entire Human Mortality Curve: A Regulatory Model of Aging

Biophysics - Abstract—Modeling of the human aging process was performed based on the relationship between overall viability and the processes of growth and self-renewal of tissues, which is...     

Extrinsic Mortality Effects on Reproductive Strategies in a Caribbean Community

Extrinsic mortality is a key influence on organisms’ life history strategies, especially on age at maturity. This historical longitudinal study of 125 women in rural Domenica examines effects of extrinsic mortality on human age at maturity and pace of reproduction. Extrinsic mortality is indicated by local population infant mortality rates during infancy and at maturity between the years 1925 and 2000. Extrinsic mortality shows effects on age at first birth and pace of reproduction among these women. Parish death records show huge historical variation in age-specific mortality rates. The infant mortality rate (IMR) in the early 1920s was low, increased dramatically beginning in 1929, and reached a maximum in the 1950s, at which point IMR declined steadily to its present low rate. The mortality rate early in life showed a quadratic association with age at first birth. Women who experienced conditions of low IMR early in life reproduced relatively late in life. Those born into moderately high levels of infant mortality tended to reproduce earlier than those born at low levels. At very high infant mortality levels early in life, women went on to delay reproduction until relatively late, possibly as a result of somatic depletion and energetic stress associated with the conditions that lead to high IMR. Population mortality rates at age of maturity also showed a quadratic association with age at first birth. The pace of reproduction, estimated as number of surviving offspring controlled for maternal age, showed a similar quadratic effect. There were complex interactions between population mortality rates in infancy and at maturity. When extrinsic mortality was high during infancy, extrinsic mortality later in life had little effect on timing of first birth. When extrinsic mortality was low to moderate in infancy, extrinsic mortality later in life had significant effects on adult reproduction. I speculate that these effects are mediated through development of personality facets associated with reproduction.     

A Stochastic Model for Surname Evolution

Surnames are inherited in much the same way as biological traits like alleles of one locus. Assuming the heritability of surnames, a simple stochastic model for X, the total number of occurrences of a surname, the Consul distribution defined by the probability mass function: for x = 1, 2, 3,… and zero otherwise and where either (i) m is a positive integer when 0 ≤ θ ≤ 1 such that θ ≦ mθ ≦ 1, or (ii) m≤0, θ ≤0 such that mθ 1, can be arrived at by considering the branching process mechanism. Some applications of the model to real data are also considered.     

The Evolution of Cultural Diversity: A Phylogenetic Approach

The Evolution of Cultural Diversity:. Phylogenetic Approach . Ruth Mace, Clare J. Holden, and Stephen Shennan, eds. Oxford, U.K.: Cavendish Publishing, 2005. 291 pp.     

Evolution of Cooperation on Stochastic Dynamical Networks

Cooperative behavior that increases the fitness of others at a cost to oneself can be promoted by natural selection only in the presence of an additional mechanism. One such mechanism is based on population structure, which can lead to clustering of cooperating agents. Recently, the focus has turned to complex dynamical population structures such as social networks, where the nodes represent individuals and links represent social relationships. We investigate how the dynamics of a social network can change the level of cooperation in the network. Individuals either update their strategies by imitating their partners or adjust their social ties. For the dynamics of the network structure, a random link is selected and breaks with a probability determined by the adjacent individuals. Once it is broken, a new one is established. This linking dynamics can be conveniently characterized by a Markov chain in the configuration space of an ever-changing network of interacting agents. Our model can be analytically solved provided the dynamics of links proceeds much faster than the dynamics of strategies. This leads to a simple rule for the evolution of cooperation: The more fragile links between cooperating players and non-cooperating players are (or the more robust links between cooperators are), the more likely cooperation prevails. Our approach may pave the way for analytically investigating coevolution of strategy and structure.     

Reports of the Death of Extrinsic Mortality Moulding Senescence Have Been Greatly Exaggerated

The classic evolutionary theory of aging posits that senescence evolves because the weakening of selection with age allows mutations with late-acting deleterious effects to accumulate. Because extrinsic mortality is an important cause of weakening selection, the central prediction of the theory has been that higher extrinsic mortality should lead to the evolution of a higher rate of senescence. However, the validity of this prediction has been questioned, even to the extent of suggesting that it is not a prediction of the theory at all, primarily on the basis that changes in population growth rate will compensate for changes in extrinsic mortality. The implication is that empiricists have been using the wrong prediction to test the theory. This claim is misleading, however, because it does not apply on an evolutionary timescale, when population size must be roughly constant. With a constant population size, Hamilton’s fitness sensitivities show that extrinsic mortality determines the rate at which the strength of selection declines with age, and thus determines the rate of senescence. The central prediction has been confirmed in the few controlled experiments with model organisms that have been conducted, but clearly this is an area ripe for further investigation.     

Mortality as an Indicator of Aging: Possibilities and Limitations

Biophysics - Abstract—Using data gathered from 40 countries throughout a historical period covering two and a half centuries, we studied the peculiarities of age-related changes in the aging...     

Age Distribution of Human Diploid Fibroblasts: A Stochastic Model for In Vitro Aging

Variation in the lifespan of mass cultures and clones of human diploid fibroblasts can be explained on the basis of variation in the length of the mitotic cycle. This variation is of biological significance; the intrinsic standard deviation of culture lifespan is equal to about 10% of the mean. We constructed a two-parameter stochastic model based on the following assumptions: the time between successive divisions of a given cell is of random duration; cells divide or lose the ability to divide independently of one another; the probability that a cell can undergo further division is constant up to some maximum number of divisions and zero thereafter. We determined numerically the proportion of nondividing cells and the distribution of cell generations. Samples taken by Monte Carlo means from a hypothetical in vitro population were compared with clonal survival data obtained experimentally. The fit between experimental and theoretical findings was within the range of sampling variation. If we accept our model as being applicable to human diploid cell culture, we can draw the following conclusions: the proportion of dividing cells is an inadequate index of a population's age; even in populations in which almost all cells are still capable of division, a majority of the cells have less than eight generations remaining to them. At each subcultivation the ultimate fate of a culture is determined by the disposition of a relatively small number of “young” cells.     

Components of Attention in Grapheme-Color Synesthesia: A Modeling Approach

Grapheme-color synesthesia is a condition where the perception of graphemes consistently and automatically evokes an experience of non-physical color. Many have studied how synesthesia affects the processing of achromatic graphemes, but less is known about the synesthetic processing of physically colored graphemes. Here, we investigated how the visual processing of colored letters is affected by the congruence or incongruence of synesthetic grapheme-color associations. We briefly presented graphemes (10–150 ms) to 9 grapheme-color synesthetes and to 9 control observers. Their task was to report as many letters (targets) as possible, while ignoring digit (distractors). Graphemes were either congruently or incongruently colored with the synesthetes’ reported grapheme-color association. A mathematical model, based on Bundesen’s (1990) Theory of Visual Attention (TVA), was fitted to each observer’s data, allowing us to estimate discrete components of visual attention. The models suggested that the synesthetes processed congruent letters faster than incongruent ones, and that they were able to retain more congruent letters in visual short-term memory, while the control group’s model parameters were not significantly affected by congruence. The increase in processing speed, when synesthetes process congruent letters, suggests that synesthesia affects the processing of letters at a perceptual level. To account for the benefit in processing speed, we propose that synesthetic associations become integrated into the categories of graphemes, and that letter colors are considered as evidence for making certain perceptual categorizations in the visual system. We also propose that enhanced visual short-term memory capacity for congruently colored graphemes can be explained by the synesthetes’ expertise regarding their specific grapheme-color associations.     

Structured Modeling and Analysis of Stochastic Epidemics with Immigration and Demographic Effects

Stochastic epidemics with open populations of variable population sizes are considered where due to immigration and demographic effects the epidemic does not eventually die out forever. The underlying stochastic processes are ergodic multi-dimensional continuous-time Markov chains that possess unique equilibrium probability distributions. Modeling these epidemics as level-dependent quasi-birth-and-death processes enables efficient computations of the equilibrium distributions by matrix-analytic methods. Numerical examples for specific parameter sets are provided, which demonstrates that this approach is particularly well-suited for studying the impact of varying rates for immigration, births, deaths, infection, recovery from infection, and loss of immunity.     

Stochastic Modeling of Autoregulatory Genetic Feedback Loops: A Review and Comparative Study

Autoregulatory feedback loops are one of the most common network motifs. A wide variety of stochastic models have been constructed to understand how the fluctuations in protein numbers in these loops are influenced by the kinetic parameters of the main biochemical steps. These models differ according to 1) which subcellular processes are explicitly modeled, 2) the modeling methodology employed (discrete, continuous, or hybrid), and 3) whether they can be analytically solved for the steady-state distribution of protein numbers. We discuss the assumptions and properties of the main models in the literature, summarize our current understanding of the relationship between them, and highlight some of the insights gained through modeling.