Interrogating recent range changes in South African birds: confounding signals from land use and climate change present a challenge for attribution

Aim Apparent anthropogenic warming has been underway in South Africa for several decades, a period over which significant range shifts have been observed in some indigenous bird species. We asked whether these range shifts by birds are clearly consistent with either climate change or land use change being the primary driver. Location South Africa. Methods We categorized recent range changes among 408 South African terrestrial bird species and, using generalized linear mixed models, analysed ecological attributes of those species that have and have not changed their ranges. Results Fifty‐six of the 408 taxa studied have undergone significant range shifts. Most extended their ranges towards the south (towards cooler latitudes, consistent with climate‐change drivers) or west (towards drier and warmer habitats, inconsistent with climate drivers but consistent with land use drivers); very few moved east or north. Both southward and westward movers were habitat generalists. Furthermore, southward movers were mobile taxa (migrants and nomads), whereas westward movers were associated with human‐modified elements in the landscape, such as croplands, plantations or buildings. Main conclusions The results suggest that both land use changes and climate change may simultaneously be influencing dynamic range shifts by South African birds, but separating the relative strengths of these two drivers is challenging, not least because both are operating concurrently and may influence some species simultaneously. Those species that respond to land use change by contracting their ranges are likely to be among the species that will be most impacted by climate change if land use practices with negative impacts are occurring in areas anticipated to become climatic refugia for these species. This highlights a pressing need to develop dynamic models of species’ potential range shifts and changing abundances that incorporate population and dispersal processes, as well as ecological processes that influence habitat suitability.     

Weighing the relative potential impacts of climate change and land‐use change on an endangered bird

Climate change and land‐use change are projected to be the two greatest drivers of biodiversity loss over the coming century. Land‐use change has resulted in extensive habitat loss for many species. Likewise, climate change has affected many species resulting in range shifts, changes in phenology, and altered interactions. We used a spatially explicit, individual‐based model to explore the effects of land‐use change and climate change on a population of the endangered Red‐cockaded Woodpecker (RCW; Picoides borealis). We modeled the effects of land‐use change using multiple scenarios representing different spatial arrangements of new training areas for troops across Fort Benning. We used projected climate‐driven changes in habitat and changes in reproductive output to explore the potential effects of climate change. We summarized potential changes in habitat based on the output of the dynamic vegetation model LPJ‐GUESS, run for multiple climate change scenarios through the year 2100. We projected potential changes in reproduction based on an empirical relationship between spring precipitation and the mean number of successful fledglings produced per nest attempt. As modeled in our study, climate change had virtually no effect on the RCW population. Conversely, simulated effects of land‐use change resulted in the loss of up to 28 breeding pairs by 2100. However, the simulated impacts of development depended on where the development occurred and could be completely avoided if the new training areas were placed in poor‐quality habitat. Our results demonstrate the flexibility inherent in many systems that allows seemingly incompatible human land uses, such as development, and conservation actions to exist side by side.     

Predicting future distributions of mountain plants under climate change: does dispersal capacity matter?

Many studies have investigated the potential impacts of climate change on the distribution of plant species, but few have attempted to constrain projections through plant dispersal limitations. Instead, most studies published so far have simplified dispersal as either unlimited or null. However, depending on the dispersal capacity of a species, landscape fragmentation, and the rate of climatic change, these assumptions can lead to serious over- or underestimation of the future distribution of plant species.
To quantify the discrepancies between simulations accounting for dispersal or not, we carried out projections of future distribution over the 21st century for 287 mountain plant species in a study area of the western Swiss Alps. For each species, simulations were run for four dispersal scenarios (unlimited dispersal, no dispersal, realistic dispersal, and realistic dispersal with long-distance dispersal events) and under four climate change scenarios.
Although simulations accounting for realistic dispersal limitations did significantly differ from those considering dispersal as unlimited or null in terms of projected future distribution, the unlimited dispersal simplification did nevertheless provide good approximations for species extinctions under more moderate climate change scenarios. Overall, simulations accounting for dispersal limitations produced, for our mountainous study area, results that were significantly closer to unlimited dispersal than to no dispersal. Finally, analysis of the temporal pattern of species extinctions over the entire 21st century revealed that important species extinctions for our study area might not occur before the 2080–2100 period, due to the possibility of a large number of species shifting their distribution to higher elevation.     

The future distribution of river fish: The complex interplay of climate and land use changes,species dispersal and movement barriers

The future distribution of river fishes will be jointly affected by climate and land use changes forcing species to move in space. However, little is known whether fish species will be able to keep pace with predicted climate and land use‐driven habitat shifts, in particular in fragmented river networks. In this study, we coupled species distribution models (stepwise boosted regression trees) of 17 fish species with species‐specific models of their dispersal (fish dispersal model FIDIMO) in the European River Elbe catchment. We quantified (i) the extent and direction (up‐ vs. downstream) of predicted habitat shifts under coupled “moderate” and “severe” climate and land use change scenarios for 2050, and (ii) the dispersal abilities of fishes to track predicted habitat shifts while explicitly considering movement barriers (e.g., weirs, dams). Our results revealed median net losses of suitable habitats of 24 and 94 river kilometers per species for the moderate and severe future scenarios, respectively. Predicted habitat gains and losses and the direction of habitat shifts were highly variable among species. Habitat gains were negatively related to fish body size, i.e., suitable habitats were projected to expand for smaller‐bodied fishes and to contract for larger‐bodied fishes. Moreover, habitats of lowland fish species were predicted to shift downstream, whereas those of headwater species showed upstream shifts. The dispersal model indicated that suitable habitats are likely to shift faster than species might disperse. In particular, smaller‐bodied fish (<200 mm) seem most vulnerable and least able to track future environmental change as their habitat shifted most and they are typically weaker dispersers. Furthermore, fishes and particularly larger‐bodied species might substantially be restricted by movement barriers to respond to predicted climate and land use changes, while smaller‐bodied species are rather restricted by their specific dispersal ability.     

Large‐scale impact of climate change vs. land‐use change on future biome shifts in Latin America

Climate change and land‐use change are two major drivers of biome shifts causing habitat and biodiversity loss. What is missing is a continental‐scale future projection of the estimated relative impacts of both drivers on biome shifts over the course of this century. Here, we provide such a projection for the biodiverse region of Latin America under four socio‐economic development scenarios. We find that across all scenarios 5–6% of the total area will undergo biome shifts that can be attributed to climate change until 2099. The relative impact of climate change on biome shifts may overtake land‐use change even under an optimistic climate scenario, if land‐use expansion is halted by the mid‐century. We suggest that constraining land‐use change and preserving the remaining natural vegetation early during this century creates opportunities to mitigate climate‐change impacts during the second half of this century. Our results may guide the evaluation of socio‐economic scenarios in terms of their potential for biome conservation under global change.     

Predicting Plant Diversity Patterns in Madagascar: Understanding the Effects of Climate and Land Cover Change in a Biodiversity Hotspot

Climate and land cover change are driving a major reorganization of terrestrial biotic communities in tropical ecosystems. In an effort to understand how biodiversity patterns in the tropics will respond to individual and combined effects of these two drivers of environmental change, we use species distribution models (SDMs) calibrated for recent climate and land cover variables and projected to future scenarios to predict changes in diversity patterns in Madagascar. We collected occurrence records for 828 plant genera and 2186 plant species. We developed three scenarios, (i.e., climate only, land cover only and combined climate-land cover) based on recent and future climate and land cover variables. We used this modelling framework to investigate how the impacts of changes to climate and land cover influenced biodiversity across ecoregions and elevation bands. There were large-scale climate- and land cover-driven changes in plant biodiversity across Madagascar, including both losses and gains in diversity. The sharpest declines in biodiversity were projected for the eastern escarpment and high elevation ecosystems. Sharp declines in diversity were driven by the combined climate-land cover scenarios; however, there were subtle, region-specific differences in model outputs for each scenario, where certain regions experienced relatively higher species loss under climate or land cover only models. We strongly caution that predicted future gains in plant diversity will depend on the development and maintenance of dispersal pathways that connect current and future suitable habitats. The forecast for Madagascar’s plant diversity in the face of future environmental change is worrying: regional diversity will continue to decrease in response to the combined effects of climate and land cover change, with habitats such as ericoid thickets and eastern lowland and sub-humid forests particularly vulnerable into the future.     

A framework integrating physiology,dispersal and land‐use to project species ranges under climate change

To study the potential effects of climate change on species, one of the most popular approaches are species distribution models (SDMs). However, they usually fail to consider important species‐specific biological traits, such as species’ physiological capacities or dispersal ability. Furthermore, there is consensus that climate change does not influence species distributions in isolation, but together with other anthropogenic impacts such as land‐use change, even though studies investigating the relative impacts of different threats on species and their geographic ranges are still rare. Here we propose a novel integrative approach which produces refined future range projections by combining SDMs based on distribution, climate, and physiological tolerance data with empirical data on dispersal ability as well as current and future land‐use. Range projections based on different combinations of these factors show strong variation in projected range size for our study species Emberiza hortulana. Using climate and physiological data alone, strong range gains are projected. However, when we account for land‐use change and dispersal ability, future range‐gain may even turn into a future range loss. Our study highlights the importance of accounting for biological traits and processes in species distribution models and of considering the additive effects of climate and land‐use change to achieve more reliable range projections. Furthermore, with our approach we present a new tool to assess species’ vulnerability to climate change which can be easily applied to multiple species.     

Assessing the impacts of climate change and land transformation on Banksia in the South West Australian Floristic Region

Aim To determine the potential combined effects of climate change and land transformation on the modelled geographic ranges of Banksia. Location Mediterranean climate South West Australian Floristic Region (SWAFR). Methods We used the species distribution modelling software Maxent to relate current environmental conditions to occurrence data for 18 Banksia species, and subsequently made spatial predictions using two simple dispersal scenarios (zero and universal), for three climate‐severity scenarios at 2070, taking the impacts of land transformation on species’ ranges into account. The species were chosen to reflect the biogeography of Banksia in the SWAFR. Results Climate‐severity scenario, dispersal scenario, biogeographic distribution and land transformation all influenced the direction and magnitude of the modelled range change responses for the 18 species. The predominant response of species to all climate change scenarios was range contraction, with exceptions for some northern and widespread species. Including land transformation in estimates of modelled geographic range size for the three climate‐severity scenarios generally resulted in smaller gains and larger declines in species ranges across both dispersal scenarios. Including land transformation and assuming zero dispersal resulted, as expected, in the greatest declines in projected range size across all species. Increasing climate change severity greatly increased the risk of decline in the 18 Banksia species, indicating the critical role of mitigating future emissions. Main conclusions The combined effects of climate change and land transformation may have significant adverse impacts on endemic Proteaceae in the SWAFR, especially under high emissions scenarios and if, as expected, natural migration is limiting. Although these results need cautious interpretation in light of the many assumptions underlying the techniques used, the impacts identified warrant a clear focus on monitoring across species ranges to detect early signs of change, and experiments that determine physiological thresholds for species in order to validate and refine the models.     

A Geographic Mosaic of Climate Change Impacts on Terrestrial Vegetation: Which Areas Are Most at Risk?

Changes in climate projected for the 21^st century are expected to trigger widespread and pervasive biotic impacts. Forecasting these changes and their implications for ecosystem services is a major research goal. Much of the research on biotic responses to climate change has focused on either projected shifts in individual species distributions or broad-scale changes in biome distributions. Here, we introduce a novel application of multinomial logistic regression as a powerful approach to model vegetation distributions and potential responses to 21^st century climate change. We modeled the distribution of 22 major vegetation types, most defined by a single dominant woody species, across the San Francisco Bay Area. Predictor variables included climate and topographic variables. The novel aspect of our model is the output: a vector of relative probabilities for each vegetation type in each location within the study domain. The model was then projected for 54 future climate scenarios, spanning a representative range of temperature and precipitation projections from the CMIP3 and CMIP5 ensembles. We found that sensitivity of vegetation to climate change is highly heterogeneous across the region. Surprisingly, sensitivity to climate change is higher closer to the coast, on lower insolation, north-facing slopes and in areas of higher precipitation. While such sites may provide refugia for mesic and cool-adapted vegetation in the face of a warming climate, the model suggests they will still be highly dynamic and relatively sensitive to climate-driven vegetation transitions. The greater sensitivity of moist and low insolation sites is an unexpected outcome that challenges views on the location and stability of climate refugia. Projections provide a foundation for conservation planning and land management, and highlight the need for a greater understanding of the mechanisms and time scales of potential climate-driven vegetation transitions.     

Macroecological drivers of zooplankton communities across the mountains of western North America

Disentangling the environmental and spatial drivers of biological communities across large scales increasingly challenges modern ecology in a rapidly changing world. Here, we investigate the hierarchical and trait‐based organization of regional and local factors of zooplankton communities at a macroscale of 1240 mountain lakes and ponds spanning western North America (California, USA, to Yukon Territory, Canada). Variation partitioning was used to test the hypothesized importance of climate, connectivity, catchment features, and exotic sportfish to zooplankton beta‐diversity in the context of key functional traits (body size and reproductive dispersal potential) given the pronounced environmental heterogeneity (e.g. thermal gradients), topographic barriers, and legacy of stocked fish in mountainous regions. Dispersal limitation was inferred from multispecies patch connectivity estimates based on nearest and average distances to occupied patches. Environmental heterogeneity best explained community composition as catchment/lake features (morphometry, land cover, and lithology) collectively captured greater variation than did climate (temperature, precipitation, and solar radiation), local stocking, or connectivity; however, single climatic variables captured the most variation individually. Macrospatial variation by larger obligate sexual species was better explained than that by smaller cyclically parthenogenetic asexual species. Our results provide several novel insights into the macroecology of zooplankton of the North American Cordillera, demonstrating their stronger associations to climatically driven aquatic‐terrestrial habitat coupling than dynamics arising from introduced salmonids, human land‐use, or species dispersal. These findings highlight the clear and important role of these communities as bioindicators of the limnological impacts of accelerating rates of climate change, as their responses appear relatively not confounded by local human perturbations or dispersal limitation.     

Modelling the impact of climate and land use change on the geographical distribution of leaf anatomy in a temperate flora

Variation in plant functional traits has been related to variation in environmental conditions. In particular, the relationship between leaf traits and climate has received much attention. This paper presents a functional‐trait‐centred approach to identify potential impacts of climate and land use change on plant species assemblages. Using species atlas data, we modelled the relative frequencies of species with different leaf anatomies (LARF) as a function of observed climate and land use data on a regular spatial grid across Germany. Subsequently, we projected the geographical distribution of LARF with simulated climate and land use data for the late 21st century under two future scenarios. We used a conditional autoregressive regression model to account for spatially structured variation in LARF that remained unexplained by the environmental factors considered. We found a clear relationship between the climatic gradient of water availability and shifts in LARF: increasing water deficit was associated with a decreasing proportion of species with hygromorphic leaves in the composition and increasing proportions of species with scleromorphic and mesomorphic leaves. The variation in LARF due to land use was only small. Under future environmental scenarios the proportion of species with hygromorphic leaves was projected to decrease in all parts of Germany, whereas the proportions of species with sclero‐ and mesomorphic leaves were projected to increase on average. In particular, Germany's south‐western and north‐eastern areas were projected to experience functional change in LARF. Our study highlights the relationship between functional traits and plant species vulnerability to climate change. Our results suggest that the functional‐trait‐centred approach can provide a powerful additional modelling tool to estimate potential impacts of climate change on plant species assemblages.     

Balance between climate change mitigation benefits and land use impacts of bioenergy: conservation implications for European birds

Both climate change and habitat modification exert serious pressure on biodiversity. Although climate change mitigation has been identified as an important strategy for biodiversity conservation, bioenergy remains a controversial mitigation action due to its potential negative ecological and socio-economic impacts which arise through habitat modification by land use change. While the debate continues, the separate or simultaneous impacts of both climate change and bioenergy on biodiversity have not yet been compared. We assess projected range shifts of 156 European bird species by 2050 under two alternative climate change trajectories: a baseline scenario, where the global mean temperature increases by 4 °C by the end of the century, and a 2 degrees scenario, where global concerted effort limits the temperature increase to below 2 °C. For the latter scenario, we also quantify the pressure exerted by increased cultivation of energy biomass as modelled by IMAGE2.4, an integrated land use model. The global bioenergy use in this scenario is in the lower end of the range of previously estimated sustainable potential. Under the assumptions of these scenarios, we find that the magnitude of range shifts due to climate change is far greater than the impact of land conversion to woody bioenergy plantations within the European Union, and that mitigation of climate change reduces the exposure experienced by species. However, we identified potential for local conservation conflict between priority areas for conservation and bioenergy production. These conflicts must be addressed by strict bioenergy sustainability criteria that acknowledge biodiversity conservation needs beyond existing protected areas and apply also to biomass imported from outside the European Union.     

Land use changes could modify future negative effects of climate change on old‐growth forest indicator species

Aim

Climate change is expected to have major impacts on terrestrial biodiversity at all ecosystem levels, including reductions in species‐level distribution and abundance. We aim to test the extent to which land use management, such as setting‐aside forest from production, could reduce climate‐induced biodiversity impacts for specialist species over large geographical gradients.

Location

Sweden.

Methods

We applied ensembles of species distribution models based on citizen science data for six species of red‐listed old‐forest indicator fungi confined to spruce dead wood. We tested the effect on species habitat suitabilities of alternative climate change scenarios and varying amounts of forest set‐aside from production over the coming century.

Results

With 3.6% of forest area set‐aside from production and assuming no climate change, overall habitat suitabilities for all six species were projected to increase in response to maturing spruce in set‐aside forest. However, overall habitat suitabilities for all six species were projected to decline under climate change scenario RCP4.5 (intermediate–low emissions), with even greater declines projected under RCP 8.5 (high emissions). Increasing the amount of forest set‐aside to 16% resulted in significant increases in overall habitat suitability, with one species showing an increase. A further increase to 32% forest set‐aside resulted in considerably more positive trends, with three of six species increasing.

Main conclusions

There is interspecific variation in the importance of future macroclimate and resource availability on species occurrence. However, large‐scale conservation measures, such as increasing resource availability through setting aside forest from production, could reduce future negative effects from climate change, and early investment in conservation is likely to reduce the future negative impacts of climate change on specialist species.     

An empirical test of the relative and combined effects of land‐cover and climate change on local colonization and extinction

Land‐cover and climate change are two main drivers of changes in species ranges. Yet, the majority of studies investigating the impacts of global change on biodiversity focus on one global change driver and usually use simulations to project biodiversity responses to future conditions. We conduct an empirical test of the relative and combined effects of land‐cover and climate change on species occurrence changes. Specifically, we examine whether observed local colonization and extinctions of North American birds between 1981–1985 and 2001–2005 are correlated with land‐cover and climate change and whether bird life history and ecological traits explain interspecific variation in observed occurrence changes. We fit logistic regression models to test the impact of physical land‐cover change, changes in net primary productivity, winter precipitation, mean summer temperature, and mean winter temperature on the probability of Ontario breeding bird local colonization and extinction. Models with climate change, land‐cover change, and the combination of these two drivers were the top ranked models of local colonization for 30%, 27%, and 29% of species, respectively. Conversely, models with climate change, land‐cover change, and the combination of these two drivers were the top ranked models of local extinction for 61%, 7%, and 9% of species, respectively. The quantitative impacts of land‐cover and climate change variables also vary among bird species. We then fit linear regression models to test whether the variation in regional colonization and extinction rate could be explained by mean body mass, migratory strategy, and habitat preference of birds. Overall, species traits were weakly correlated with heterogeneity in species occurrence changes. We provide empirical evidence showing that land‐cover change, climate change, and the combination of multiple global change drivers can differentially explain observed species local colonization and extinction.     

Ancient woodland indicators signal the climate change risk for dispersal-limited species

The climate change risk to biodiversity operates alongside a range of anthropogenic pressures. These include habitat loss and fragmentation, which may prevent species from migrating between isolated habitat patches in order to track their suitable climate space. Predictive modelling has advanced in scope and complexity to integrate: (i) projected shifts in climate suitability, with (ii) spatial patterns of landscape habitat quality and rates of dispersal. This improved ecological realism is suited to data-rich model species, though its broader generalisation comes with accumulated uncertainties, e.g. incomplete knowledge of species response to variable habitat quality, parameterisation of dispersal kernels etc. This study adopts ancient woodland indicator species (lichen epiphytes) as a guild that couples relative simplicity with biological rigour. Subjectively-assigned indicator species were statistically tested against a binary habitat map of woodlands of known continuity (>250 yr), and bioclimatic models were used to demonstrate trends in their increased/decreased environmental suitability under conditions of ‘no dispersal’. Given the expectation of rapid climate change on ecological time-scales, no dispersal for ancient woodland indicators becomes a plausible assumption. The risk to ancient woodland indicators is spatially structured (greater in a relative continental compared to an oceanic climatic zone), though regional differences are weakened by significant variation (within regions) in woodland extent. As a corollary, ancient woodland indicators that are sensitive to projected climate change scenarios may be excellent targets for monitoring climate change impacts for biodiversity at a site-scale, including the outcome of strategic habitat management (climate change adaptation) designed to offset risk for dispersal-limited species.     

Rarity,geography, and plant exposure to global change in the California Floristic Province

Aim

Rarity and geographic aspects of species distributions mediate their vulnerability to global change. We explore the relationships between species rarity and geography and their exposure to climate and land use change in a biodiversity hotspot.

Location

California, USA.

Taxa

One hundred and six terrestrial plants.

Methods

We estimated four rarity traits: range size, niche breadth, number of habitat patches, and patch isolation; and three geographic traits: mean elevation, topographic heterogeneity, and distance to coast. We used species distribution models to measure species exposure—predicted change in continuous habitat suitability within currently occupied habitat—under climate and land use change scenarios. Using regression models, decision-tree models and variance partitioning, we assessed the relationships between species rarity, geography, and exposure to climate and land use change.

Results

Rarity, geography and greenhouse gas emissions scenario explained >35% of variance in climate change exposure and >61% for land use change exposure. While rarity traits (range size and number of habitat patches) were most important for explaining species exposure to climate change, geographic traits (elevation and topographic heterogeneity) were more strongly associated with species' exposure to land use change.

Main conclusions

Species with restricted range sizes and low topographic heterogeneity across their distributions were predicted to be the most exposed to climate change, while species at low elevations were the most exposed to habitat loss via land use change. However, even some broadly distributed species were projected to lose >70% of their currently suitable habitat due to climate and land use change if they are in geographically vulnerable areas, emphasizing the need to consider both species rarity traits and geography in vulnerability assessments.     

Projected changes in distributions of Australian tropical savanna birds under climate change using three dispersal scenarios

Identifying the species most vulnerable to extinction as a result of climate change is a necessary first step in mitigating biodiversity decline. Species distribution modeling (SDM) is a commonly used tool to assess potential climate change impacts on distributions of species. We use SDMs to predict geographic ranges for 243 birds of Australian tropical savannas, and to project changes in species richness and ranges under a future climate scenario between 1990 and 2080. Realistic predictions require recognition of the variability in species capacity to track climatically suitable environments. Here we assess the effect of dispersal on model results by using three approaches: full dispersal, no dispersal and a partial-dispersal scenario permitting species to track climate change at a rate of 30 km per decade. As expected, the projected distributions and richness patterns are highly sensitive to the dispersal scenario. Projected future range sizes decreased for 66% of species if full dispersal was assumed, but for 89% of species when no dispersal was assumed. However, realistic future predictions should not assume a single dispersal scenario for all species and as such, we assigned each species to the most appropriate dispersal category based on individual mobility and habitat specificity; this permitted the best estimates of where species will be in the future. Under this "realistic" dispersal scenario, projected ranges sizes decreased for 67% of species but showed that migratory and tropical-endemic birds are predicted to benefit from climate change with increasing distributional area. Richness hotspots of tropical savanna birds are expected to move, increasing in southern savannas and southward along the east coast of Australia, but decreasing in the arid zone. Understanding the complexity of effects of climate change on species' range sizes by incorporating dispersal capacities is a crucial step toward developing adaptation policies for the conservation of vulnerable species.     

Climate warming and the decline of amphibians and reptiles in Europe

Aim We explore the relationship between current European distributions of amphibian and reptile species and observed climate, and project species potential distributions into the future. Potential impacts of climate warming are assessed by quantifying the magnitude and direction of modelled distributional shifts for every species. In particular we ask, first, what proportion of amphibian and reptile species are projected to lose and gain suitable climate space in the future? Secondly, do species projections vary according to taxonomic, spatial or environmental properties? And thirdly, what climate factors might be driving projections of loss or gain in suitable environments for species? Location Europe. Methods Distributions of species are modelled with four species–climate envelope techniques (artificial neural networks, generalized linear models, generalized additive models, and classification tree analyses) and distributions are projected into the future using five climate‐change scenarios for 2050. Future projections are made considering two extreme assumptions: species have unlimited dispersal ability and species have no dispersal ability. A novel hybrid approach for combining ensembles of forecasts is then used to group linearly covarying projections into clusters with reduced inter‐model variability. Results We show that a great proportion of amphibian and reptile species are projected to expand distributions if dispersal is unlimited. This is because warming in the cooler northern ranges of species creates new opportunities for colonization. If species are unable to disperse, then most species are projected to lose range. Loss of suitable climate space for species is projected to occur mainly in the south‐west of Europe, including the Iberian Peninsula, whilst species in the south‐east are projected to gain suitable climate. This is because dry conditions in the south‐west are projected to increase, approaching the levels found in North Africa, where few amphibian species are able to persist. Main conclusions The impact of increasing temperatures on amphibian and reptile species may be less deleterious than previously postulated; indeed, climate cooling would be more deleterious for the persistence of amphibian and reptile species than warming. The ability of species to cope with climate warming may, however, be offset by projected decreases in the availability of water. This should be particularly true for amphibians. Limited dispersal ability may further increase the vulnerability of amphibians and reptiles to changes in climate.     

Potential impacts of climate and landscape fragmentation changes on plant distributions: Coupling multi-temporal satellite imagery with GIS-based cellular automata model

Climate change and landscape fragmentation are considered to be the main treats to biodiversity. In this study, probable alteration of future species distribution was tested based on the association of landscape fragmentation and climate change scenarios compared to the classical approach that assumed an unchanged landscape. Also, projected range shifts including realistic dispersal scenarios were compared with classical models, in which no or full dispersal has been supposed.A GIS-based cellular automata model, MigClim, was implemented to projection of future distribution over the 21st century for three plant species in a study area of the central Germany. For each species, simulations were run for four dispersal scenarios (full dispersal, no dispersal, realistic dispersal, and realistic dispersal with long-distance dispersal events), two landscape fragmentation (static and dynamic change) and two climate change (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) scenarios. In this research, temporal satellite data were utilized to simulate landscape changes by the use of a hybrid (CA-Markov) model for the years 2020, 2040, 2060 and 2080.A significant difference appears to be between the simulations of realistic dispersal limitations and those considering full or no dispersal for projected future distributions. Although simulations accounting for dispersal limitations produced, for our study area, results that were closer to no dispersal than to full dispersal. Additionally, our results revealed that change in landscape fragmentation is more effective than the climate change impacts on species distributions in this study.     

The fate of European breeding birds under climate,land‐use and dispersal scenarios

Many species have already shifted their distributions in response to recent climate change. Here, we aimed at predicting the future breeding distributions of European birds under climate, land‐use, and dispersal scenarios. We predicted current and future distributions of 409 species within an ensemble forecast framework using seven species distribution models (SDMs), five climate scenarios and three emission and land‐use scenarios. We then compared results from SDMs using climate‐only variables, habitat‐only variables or both climate and habitat variables. In order to account for a species’ dispersal abilities, we used natal dispersal estimates and developed a probabilistic method that produced a dispersal scenario intermediate between the null and full dispersal scenarios generally considered in such studies. We then compared results from all scenarios in terms of future predicted range changes, range shifts, and variations in species richness. Modeling accuracy was better with climate‐only variables than with habitat‐only variables, and better with both climate and habitat variables. Habitat models predicted smaller range shifts and smaller variations in range size and species richness than climate models. Using both climate and habitat variables, it was predicted that the range of 71% of the species would decrease by 2050, with a 335 km median shift. Predicted variations in species richness showed large decreases in the southern regions of Europe, as well as increases, mainly in Scandinavia and northern Russia. The partial dispersal scenario was significantly different from the full dispersal scenario for 25% of the species, resulting in the local reduction of the future predicted species richness of up to 10%. We concluded that the breeding range of most European birds will decrease in spite of dispersal abilities close to a full dispersal hypothesis, and that given the contrasted predictions obtained when modeling climate change only and land‐use change only, both scenarios must be taken into consideration.