From inclusive fitness to fixation probability in homogeneous structured populations

The methods of inclusive fitness provide a powerful analysis of the action of selection on social behaviour. The key component of this analysis is the concept of relatedness R. In infinite populations, a standard method of calculating relatedness coefficients is through coefficients of consanguinity using the notion of genetic identity by descent. In this paper, we show that this approach can also be made to work in finite populations and we assume here that the population has a homogeneous structure, such as an island model. We demonstrate that, under the assumption that genetic effects are small and additive, the resulting formulation of inclusive fitness is equivalent to other significant measures of selection in finite populations, including the change in average allele frequency and fixation probability. The results are illustrated for a model of the evolution of cooperation in a finite island population.     

Fisher’s fundamental theorem of inclusive fitness and the change in fitness due to natural selection when conspecifics interact

Competition and cooperation is fundamental to evolution by natural selection, both in animals and plants. Here, I investigate the consequences of such interactions for response in fitness due to natural selection. I provide quantitative genetic expressions for heritable variance and response in fitness due to natural selection when conspecifics interact. Results show that interactions among conspecifics generate extra heritable variance in fitness, and that interacting with kin is the key to evolutionary success because it translates the extra heritable variance into response in fitness. This work also unifies Fisher’s fundamental theorem of natural selection (FTNS) and Hamilton’s inclusive fitness (IF). The FTNS implies that natural selection maximizes fitness, whereas Hamilton proposed maximization of IF. This work shows that the FTNS describes the increase in IF, rather than direct fitness, at a rate equal to the additive genetic variance in fitness. Thus, Hamilton’s IF and Fisher’s FTNS both describe the maximization of IF.     

Inclusive fitness models with two sexes

Much recent work has focused on the transition from G. R. Price's (1970, Nature 227, 520-521) formula for allele frequency change to an inclusive fitness condition for the selective advantage of a certain behaviour. In case there is any kind of asymmetry between the sexes, the analysis must keep track of the two sexes separately, and this leads to a number of different forms of the expression for inclusive fitness. In this paper I gather these forms together and note the assumptions needed to make each valid. I also show how inclusive fitness should be formulated when the behaviour of the actor is controlled by another individual. I illustrate the inclusive fitness approach with a sex allocation example in a haplodiploid population with a local breeding structure.     

Birth-death symmetry in the evolution of a social trait

Studies of the evolution of a social trait often make ecological assumptions (of population structure, life history), and thus a trait can be studied many different times with different assumptions. Here, I consider a Moran model of continuous reproduction and use an inclusive fitness analysis to investigate the relationships between fecundity or survival selection and birth-death (BD) or death-birth (DB) demography on the evolution of a social trait. A simple symmetry obtains: fecundity (respectively survival) effects under BD behave the same as survival (respectively fecundity) effects under DB. When these results are specialized to a homogeneous population, greatly simplified conditions for a positive inclusive fitness effect are obtained in both a finite and an infinite population. The results are established using the elegant formalism of mathematical group theory and are illustrated with an example of a finite population arranged in a cycle with asymmetric offspring dispersal.     

Invasion fitness,inclusive fitness,and reproductive numbers in heterogeneous populations

How should fitness be measured to determine which phenotype or “strategy” is uninvadable when evolution occurs in a group‐structured population subject to local demographic and environmental heterogeneity? Several fitness measures, such as basic reproductive number, lifetime dispersal success of a local lineage, or inclusive fitness have been proposed to address this question, but the relationships between them and their generality remains unclear. Here, we ascertain uninvadability (all mutant strategies always go extinct) in terms of the asymptotic per capita number of mutant copies produced by a mutant lineage arising as a single copy in a resident population (“invasion fitness”). We show that from invasion fitness uninvadability is equivalently characterized by at least three conceptually distinct fitness measures: (i) lineage fitness, giving the average individual fitness of a randomly sampled mutant lineage member; (ii) inclusive fitness, giving a reproductive value weighted average of the direct fitness costs and relatedness weighted indirect fitness benefits accruing to a randomly sampled mutant lineage member; and (iii) basic reproductive number (and variations thereof) giving lifetime success of a lineage in a single group, and which is an invasion fitness proxy. Our analysis connects approaches that have been deemed different, generalizes the exact version of inclusive fitness to class‐structured populations, and provides a biological interpretation of natural selection on a mutant allele under arbitrary strength of selection.     

Individual heterogeneity and capture–recapture models: what,why and how?

Variation between and within individuals in life history traits is ubiquitous in natural populations. When affecting fitness‐related traits such as survival or reproduction, individual heterogeneity plays a key role in population dynamics and life history evolution. However, it is only recently that properly accounting for individual heterogeneity when studying population dynamics of free‐ranging populations has been made possible through the development of appropriate statistical models. We aim here to review case studies of individual heterogeneity in the context of capture–recapture models for the estimation of population size and demographic parameters with imperfect detection. First, we define what individual heterogeneity means and clarify the terminology used in the literature. Second, we review the literature and illustrate why individual heterogeneity is used in capture–recapture studies by focusing on the detection of life‐history tradeoffs, including senescence. Third, we explain how to model individual heterogeneity in capture–recapture models and provide the code to fit these models ( https://github.com/oliviergimenez/indhet_in_CRmodels ). The distinction is made between situations in which heterogeneity is actually measured and situations in which part of the heterogeneity remains unobserved. Regarding the latter, we outline recent developments of random‐effect models and finite‐mixture models. Finally, we discuss several avenues for future research.     

Phenotypic selection and covariation in the life‐history traits of elephant seals: heavier offspring gain a double selective advantage

Early developmental conditions contribute to individual heterogeneity of both phenotypic traits and fitness components, ultimately affecting population dynamics. Although the demographic consequences of ontogenic growth are best quantified using an integrated measure of fitness, most analyses to date have instead studied individual fitness components in isolation. Here, we estimated phenotypic selection on weaning mass in female southern elephant seals Mirounga leonina by analyzing individual‐based data collected between 1986 and 2016 with capture–recapture and matrix projection models. In support of a hypothesis predicting a gradual decrease of weaning mass effects with time since weaning (the replacement hypothesis), we found that the estimated effects of weaning mass on future survival and recruitment probability was of intermediate duration (rather than transient or permanent). Heavier female offspring had improved odds of survival in early life and a higher probability to recruit at an early age. The positive link between weaning mass and recruitment age is noteworthy, considering that pre‐recruitment mortality already imposed a strong selective filter on the population, leaving only the most ‘robust’ individuals to reproduce. The selection gradient on asymptotic population growth rate, a measure of mean absolute fitness, was weaker than selection on first‐year survival and recruitment probabilities. Weaker selection on mean fitness occurs because weaning mass has little impact on adult survival, the fitness component to which the population growth of long‐lived species is most sensitive. These results highlight the need to interpret individual variation in phenotypic traits in a context that considers the demographic pathways between the trait and an inclusive proxy of individual fitness. Although variation in weaning mass do not translate to permanent survival differences among individuals in adulthood, it explains heterogeneity and positive covariation between survival and breeding in early life, which contribute to between‐individual variation in fitness.     

Unbiased estimation of individual asymmetry

The importance of measurement error (ME) for the estimation of population level fluctuating asymmetry (FA) has long been recognized. At the individual level, however, this aspect has been studied in less detail. Recently, it has been shown that the random slopes of a mixed regression model can estimate individual asymmetry levels that are unbiased with respect to ME. Yet, recent studies have shown that such estimates may fail to reflect heterogeneity in these effects. In this note I show that this is not the case for the estimation of individual asymmetry. The random slopes adequately reflect between‐individual heterogeneity in the underlying developmental instability. Increased levels of ME resulted in, on average, lower estimates of individual asymmetry relative to the traditional unsigned asymmetry. This well‐known shrinkage effect in Bayesian analysis adequately corrected for ME and heterogeneity in ME resulting in unbiased estimates of individual asymmetry that were more closely correlated with the true underlying asymmetry.     

Evolutionary dynamics of n-player games played by relatives

One of the core concepts in social evolution theory is kin selection. Kin selection provides a perspective to understand how natural selection operates when genetically similar individuals are likely to interact. A family-structured population is an excellent example of this, where relatives are engaged in social interactions. Consequences of such social interactions are often described in game-theoretical frameworks, but there is a growing consensus that a naive inclusive fitness accounting with dyadic relatedness coefficients are of limited use when non-additive fitness effects are essential in those situations. Here, I provide a general framework to analyse multiplayer interactions among relatives. Two important results follow from my analysis. First, it is generally necessary to know the n-tuple genetic association of family members when n individuals are engaged in social interactions. However, as a second result, I found that, for a special class of games, we need only measures of lower-order genetic association to fully describe its evolutionary dynamics. I introduce the concept of degree of the game and show how this degree is related to the degree of genetic association.     

Cryptic Kin Selection: Kin Structure in Vertebrate Populations and Opportunities for Kin‐Directed Cooperation

Animal societies of varying complexity have been the favoured testing ground for inclusive fitness theory, and there is now abundant evidence that kin selection has played a critical role in the evolution of cooperative behaviour. One of the key theoretical and empirical findings underlying this conclusion is that cooperative systems have a degree of kin structure, often the product of delayed dispersal, that facilitates interactions with relatives. However, recent population genetic studies have revealed that many non‐cooperative animals also have kin‐structured populations, providing more cryptic opportunities for kin selection to operate. In this article, I first review the evidence that kin structure is widespread among non‐cooperative vertebrates, and then consider the various contexts in which kin selection may occur in such taxa, including: leks, brood parasitism, crèches, breeding associations, territoriality and population dynamics, foraging and predator deterrence. I describe the evidence that kin‐selected benefits arise from interacting with kin in each of these contexts, notwithstanding the potential costs of kin competition and inbreeding. I conclude that as the tools required to determine population genetic structure are readily available, measurement of kin structure and the potential for kin selection on a routine basis is likely to reveal that this process has been an important driver of evolutionary adaptation in many non‐cooperative as well as cooperative species.     

The validity and value of inclusive fitness theory

Social evolution is a central topic in evolutionary biology, with the evolution of eusociality (societies with altruistic, non-reproductive helpers) representing a long-standing evolutionary conundrum. Recent critiques have questioned the validity of the leading theory for explaining social evolution and eusociality, namely inclusive fitness (kin selection) theory. I review recent and past literature to argue that these critiques do not succeed. Inclusive fitness theory has added fundamental insights to natural selection theory. These are the realization that selection on a gene for social behaviour depends on its effects on co-bearers, the explanation of social behaviours as unalike as altruism and selfishness using the same underlying parameters, and the explanation of within-group conflict in terms of non-coinciding inclusive fitness optima. A proposed alternative theory for eusocial evolution assumes mistakenly that workers' interests are subordinate to the queen's, contains no new elements and fails to make novel predictions. The haplodiploidy hypothesis has yet to be rigorously tested and positive relatedness within diploid eusocial societies supports inclusive fitness theory. The theory has made unique, falsifiable predictions that have been confirmed, and its evidence base is extensive and robust. Hence, inclusive fitness theory deserves to keep its position as the leading theory for social evolution.     

Information thresholds,habitat loss and population persistence in breeding birds

The combination of spatial structure and non‐linear population dynamics can promote the persistence of coupled populations, even when the average population growth rate of the patches seen in isolation would predict otherwise. This phenomenon has generally been conceptualized and investigated through the movement of individuals among patches that each holds many individuals, as in metapopulation models. However, population persistence can likewise increase as the result of individuals moving among sites (e.g. breeding territories) within in a single patch. Here I examine the latter: individuals making small‐scale informed decisions with respect to where to breed can promote population persistence in poor environments. Based on a simple algebraic model, I demonstrate information thresholds, and predict that greater information use is required for population persistence under lower spatial heterogeneity in habitat quality, all else equal. Second, I implement an individual‐based model to explore prior experience and prospecting on conspecific success within a more complex, and spatially heterogeneous environment. Uniquely, I jointly examine the effects of simulated habitat loss, spatial heterogeneity prior to habitat, and variation in information gathering on population persistence. I find that habitat loss accelerates population quasi‐extinction risk; however, information use reduces extinction probabilities in proportion to the level of information gathering. Per capita reproductive success declines with number of breeding sites, suggesting that information‐mediated Allee effects may contribute to extinction risk. In conclusion, my study suggests that populations in a changing world may be increasingly vulnerable to extinction where patch size and spatial heterogeneity constrain the effectiveness of information‐use strategies.     

Selection and Biased Gene Conversion in a Multigene Family: Consequences of Interallelic Bias and Threshold Selection

In a previous paper, I investigated the interactions in a gene family of additive selection and biased gene conversion in a finite population when conversion events are rare. Here I extend my "weak-conversion limit" model by allowing biased interallelic conversion (conversion between alleles at the same locus) of arbitrary frequency and various threshold selection schemes for rare interlocus conversion events. I suggest that it is not unreasonable for gene families to experience threshold fitness functions, and show that certain types of thresholds can greatly constrain the rate at which advantageous alleles are fixed as compared to other fitness schemes, such as additive selection. It is also shown that the double sampling process operating on a gene family in a finite population (sampling over the number of genes in the gene family and over the number of individuals in the population) can have interesting consequences. For selectively neutral alleles that experience interallelic bias, the probability of fixation at each single locus may be essentially neutral, but the cumulative effects on the entire gene family of small departures from neutrality can be significant, especially if the gene family is large. Thus, in some situations, gene families can respond to directional forces that are weak in comparison to drift at single loci.     

Inclusive fitness arguments in genetic models of behaviour

My purpose here is to provide a coherent account of inclusive fitness techniques, accessible to a mathematically literate graduate student in evolutionary biology, and to relate these to standard one-locus genetic models. I begin in Sect. 2 with a general formulation of evolutionary stability; in Sect. 3 and Sect. 4 I interpret the basic stability conditions within genetic and inclusive fitness models. In Sect. 5 I extend these concepts to the case of a class-structured population, and in Sect. 6 I illustrate these notions with a sex ratio example. In Sect. 7 I give a proof of the result that under additive gene action and weak selection, an inclusive fitness argument is able to verify an important stability condition (2.5) for one-locus genetic models. Most of these results have been published.     

The sociobiology of sex: inclusive fitness consequences of inter-sexual interactions

The diversity of social interactions between sexual partners has long captivated biologists, and its evolution has been interpreted largely in terms of 'direct fitness' pay-offs to partners and their descendants. Inter-sexual interactions also have 'indirect effects' by affecting the fitness of relatives, with important consequences for inclusive fitness. However, inclusive fitness arguments have received limited consideration in this context, and definitions of 'direct' and 'indirect' fitness effects in this field are often inconsistent with those of inclusive fitness theory. Here, we use a sociobiology approach based on inclusive fitness theory to distinguish between direct and indirect fitness effects. We first consider direct effects: we review how competition leads to sexual conflict, and discuss the conditions under which repression of competition fosters sexual mutualism. We then clarify indirect effects, and show that greenbeard effects, kin recognition and population viscosity can all lead to episodes of indirect selection on sexual interactions creating potential for sexual altruism and spite. We argue that the integration of direct and indirect fitness effects within a sociobiology approach enables us to consider a more diverse spectrum of evolutionary outcomes of sexual interactions, and may help resolving current debates over sexual selection and sexual conflict.     

Consequences of population topology for studying gene flow using link‐based landscape genetic methods

Many landscape genetic studies aim to determine the effect of landscape on gene flow between populations. These studies frequently employ link‐based methods that relate pairwise measures of historical gene flow to measures of the landscape and the geographical distance between populations. However, apart from landscape and distance, there is a third important factor that can influence historical gene flow, that is, population topology (i.e., the arrangement of populations throughout a landscape). As the population topology is determined in part by the landscape configuration, I argue that it should play a more prominent role in landscape genetics. Making use of existing literature and theoretical examples, I discuss how population topology can influence results in landscape genetic studies and how it can be taken into account to improve the accuracy of these results. In support of my arguments, I have performed a literature review of landscape genetic studies published during the first half of 2015 as well as several computer simulations of gene flow between populations. First, I argue why one should carefully consider which population pairs should be included in link‐based analyses. Second, I discuss several ways in which the population topology can be incorporated in response and explanatory variables. Third, I outline why it is important to sample populations in such a way that a good representation of the population topology is obtained. Fourth, I discuss how statistical testing for link‐based approaches could be influenced by the population topology. I conclude the article with six recommendations geared toward better incorporating population topology in link‐based landscape genetic studies.     

A New Metric of Inclusive Fitness Predicts the Human Mortality Profile

Biological species have evolved characteristic patterns of age-specific mortality across their life spans. If these mortality profiles are shaped by natural selection they should reflect underlying variation in the fitness effect of mortality with age. Direct fitness models, however, do not accurately predict the mortality profiles of many species. For several species, including humans, mortality rates vary considerably before and after reproductive ages, during life-stages when no variation in direct fitness is possible. Variation in mortality rates at these ages may reflect indirect effects of natural selection acting through kin. To test this possibility we developed a new two-variable measure of inclusive fitness, which we term the extended genomic output or EGO. Using EGO, we estimate the inclusive fitness effect of mortality at different ages in a small hunter-gatherer population with a typical human mortality profile. EGO in this population predicts 90% of the variation in age-specific mortality. This result represents the first empirical measurement of inclusive fitness of a trait in any species. It shows that the pattern of human survival can largely be explained by variation in the inclusive fitness cost of mortality at different ages. More generally, our approach can be used to estimate the inclusive fitness of any trait or genotype from population data on birth dates and relatedness.     

Group selection and kin selection: formally equivalent approaches

Inclusive fitness theory, summarised in Hamilton's rule, is a dominant explanation for the evolution of social behaviour. A parallel thread of evolutionary theory holds that selection between groups is also a candidate explanation for social evolution. The mathematical equivalence of these two approaches has long been known. Several recent papers, however, have objected that inclusive fitness theory is unable to deal with strong selection or with non-additive fitness effects, and concluded that the group selection framework is more general, or even that the two are not equivalent after all. Yet, these same problems have already been identified and resolved in the literature. Here, I survey these contemporary objections, and examine them in the light of current understanding of inclusive fitness theory.     

Multiple site dissimilarity quantifies compositional heterogeneity among several sites,while average pairwise dissimilarity may be misleading

Several measures of multiple site dissimilarity have been proposed to quantify the overall heterogeneity in assemblage composition among any number of sites. It is also a common practice to quantify such overall heterogeneity by averaging pairwise dissimilarities between all pairs of sites in the pool. However, pairwise dissimilarities do not account for patterns of co‐occurrence among more than two sites. In consequence, the average of pairwise dissimilarities may not accurately reflect the overall compositional heterogeneity within a pool of more than two sites. Here I use several idealized examples to illustrate why pairwise dissimilarity measures fail to properly quantify overall heterogeneity. Thereafter, the effect of this potential problem in empirical patterns is exemplified with data of world amphibians. In conclusion, when the attribute of interest is the overall heterogeneity in a pool of sites (i.e. beta diversity) or its turnover or nestedness components, only multiple site dissimilarity measures are recommended.     

Natural selection and the maximization of fitness

The notion that natural selection is a process of fitness maximization gets a bad press in population genetics, yet in other areas of biology the view that organisms behave as if attempting to maximize their fitness remains widespread. Here I critically appraise the prospects for reconciliation. I first distinguish four varieties of fitness maximization. I then examine two recent developments that may appear to vindicate at least one of these varieties. The first is the ‘new’ interpretation of Fisher's fundamental theorem of natural selection, on which the theorem is exactly true for any evolving population that satisfies some minimal assumptions. The second is the Formal Darwinism project, which forges links between gene frequency change and optimal strategy choice. In both cases, I argue that the results fail to establish a biologically significant maximization principle. I conclude that it may be a mistake to look for universal maximization principles justified by theory alone. A more promising approach may be to find maximization principles that apply conditionally and to show that the conditions were satisfied in the evolution of particular traits.