Statistical convenience vs biological insight: consequences of data transformation for the analysis of fitness variation in heterogeneous environments

In plants, more favourable environmental conditions can lead to dramatic increases in both mean fitness and variance in fitness. This results in data that violate the equality-of-variance assumption of anova, a problem that most empiricists would address by log-transforming fitness values. Using heuristic data sets and simple simulations, we show that anova on log-transformed fitness consistently fails to match the outcome of selection in a heterogeneous environment or its sensitivity to environmental frequency. Only anova based on relative fitness within environments accurately predicts the sensitivity of genotype selection to the frequency of alternative environments. Parallel analyses of variance based on absolute fitness and relative fitness can bracket the expected success of alternative genotypes under hard and soft selection, respectively. For example, for Sinapis arvensis growing in full sun and partial shade treatments, families achieving high fitness in the best environment are favoured under hard selection, whereas soft selection favours different families that achieve consistently good performance across environments. Based on these findings, we recommend that log-transformation of fitness should no longer be standard practice in ecological genetics studies. Weighted anova is a preferable method for dealing with unequal variances, and investigators should also make greater use of techniques such as quantile regression or resampling to describe and evaluate fitness variation across heterogeneous environments.     

Variability for host preference in insect populations: Mechanistic and evolutionary models

Two models that explain variation in behaviour associated with locating and accepting different habitats (host plants) are described and analyzed. One model describes the dynamics of search-mode ontogeny in Battus philenor butterflies. This model predicts that the proportion of females using either of two search modes at any given time reflects an equilibrium between the rate at which females switch from using a narrow-leaf search mode to using a broad-leaf search mode and the rate at which the opposite switch is made. Preliminary data suggest that the model predicts reasonably well the observed seasonal change in predominant search mode in the field. The second model, really a set of related models, describes the dynamics of genes that influence searching behaviour. Several predictions of these models are: (1) gentic variation for proportional allocation of offspring to different habitats should be more common under soft-selection regimes than under hard-selection regimes. (2) Polyphagy should be more common under soft selection than under hard selection. (3) Whether changes in the relative abundances or relative quality of different habitats lead to evolutionary change in apportionment of offspring to habitats depends in a complex way on mode of population regulation, method of search, type of limitation of fecundity and genetic properties of loci affecting preference. Although the two types of models superficially appear to address different types of behavioural variation, they may be used in a complementary fashion to understand the evolution of habitat selection behaviour.     

Evolution of life-history timing in a leafmining moth: Phenotypic selection in patches with manipulated development time

Phyllonorycter mespilella (Hübner) is a leafmining moth with two stages of larval development: the initial sap-feeding (SF) stage followed by the tissue-feeding (TF) stage. Phenotypic selection by parasitoids on the duration of the SF stage (SF duration) was measured in artificial patches of larvae placed in the field during the diapausing generation. Pretreatment of larvae with different photoperiods allowed creation of patches that varied in the time-course of appearance of TF larvae. The shorter the photoperiod pretreatment, the sooner TF larvae tended to appear. Some patches were left exposed and others were caged to exclude parasitoids. Positive directional selection on SF duration was detected in exposed patches, and no selection was detected in caged patches. Directional selection in exposed patches was caused by both parasitoid oviposition and other unidentified sources of mortality. The other sources of mortality may have included host feeding by parasitoids on TF larvae. A larger proportion of parasitoid eggs were oviposited on TF larvae in patches where TF larvae appeared the earliest, but this variation in parasitoid oviposition did not result in significant differences in directional selection intensity among patches with early, intermediate and late appearance of TF larvae. Although the general form of the fitness function was very similar when compared among patch types, no significant directional selection could be detected in patches where TF larvae appeared late, and the causes of directional selection appeared to vary between patches where TF larvae appeared at early and intermediate dates.     

Polymorphism in heterogeneous environments,evolution of habitat selection and sympatric speciation: Soft and hard selection models

Summary The adaptation to a variable environment has been studied within soft and hard selection frameworks. It is shown that an epistatically determined habitat preference, following a Markovian process, always leads to the maintenance of an adaptive polymorphism, in a soft selection context. Although local mating does not alter the conditions for polymorphism maintenance, it is shown that, in that case, habitat selection also leads to the evolution of isolated reproductive units within each available habitat. Habitat selection, however, cannot evolve in the total absence of adaptive polymorphism. This represents a theoretical problem for all models assuming habitat selection to be an initially fixed trait, and means that within a soft selection framework, all the available habitats will be exploited, even the less favourable ones.On the other hand, polymorphism cannot be maintained when selection is hard, even when all individuals select their habitat. Here, the evolution of habitat selection does not need any prerequisite polymorphism, and always leads to the exploitation of only one habitat by the most specialized genotype. It appears then that hard selection can account for the existence of empty habitat and for an easier evolution of habitat specialization.     

LONG-TERM EXPERIMENTAL EVOLUTION IN ESCHERICHIA COLI. VII. MECHANISMS MAINTAINING GENETIC VARIABILITY WITHIN POPULATIONS

Six replicate populations of the bacterium Escherichia coli were propagated for more than 10,000 generations in a defined environment. We sought to quantify the variation among clones within these populations with respect to their relative fitness, and to evaluate the roles of three distinct population genetic processes in maintaining this variation. On average, a pair of clones from the same population differed from one another in their relative fitness by approximately 4%. This within-population variation was small compared with the average fitness gain relative to the common ancestor, but it was statistically significant. According to one hypothesis, the variation in fitness is transient and reflects the ongoing substitution of beneficial alleles. We used Fisher's fundamental theorem to compare the observed rate of each population's change in mean fitness with the extent of variation for fitness within that population, but we failed to discern any correspondence between these quantities. A second hypothesis supposes that the variation in fitness is maintained by recurrent deleterious mutations that give rise to a mutation-selection balance. To test this hypothesis, we made use of the fact that two of the six replicate populations had evolved mutator phenotypes, which gave them a genomic mutation rate approximately 100-fold higher than that of the other populations. There was a marginally significant correlation between a population's mutation rate and the extent of its within-population variance for fitness, but this correlation was driven by only one population (whereas two of the populations had elevated mutation rates). Under a third hypothesis, this variation is maintained by frequency-dependent selection, whereby genotypes have an advantage when they are rare relative to when they are common. In all six populations, clones were more fit, on average, when they were rare than when they were common, although the magnitude of the advantage when rare was usually small (~1% in five populations and ~5% in the other). These three hypotheses are not mutually exclusive, but frequency-dependent selection appears to be the primary force maintaining the fitness variation within these experimental populations.     

LIFE-CYCLE COMPONENTS OF SELECTION IN ERIGERON ANNUUS: I. PHENOTYPIC SELECTION

The magnitude and direction of phenotypic selection on emergence date and seedling size in Erigeron annuus was measured to determine the heterogeneity of selection among sites and the proportion of fitness variance explained by seedling size and emergence date. Three disturbance treatments (open, annual vegetation, perennial vegetation) were imposed to test the hypothesis of stronger selection on seedlings in competitive environments. Selection was most heterogeneous early in the life cycle, with significant spatial heterogeneity in the magnitude of selection on a local scale. The disturbance treatments affected only fecundity selection gradients and selection was strongest in open plots. Significant variation in the sign of selection differentials on emergence date was observed for establishment and fall viability selection episodes; at later stages selection varied in magnitude but not direction. Seedlings in the earliest cohort experienced high mortality during establishment, but increased size and fecundity later in the life cycle. Both stabilizing and disruptive selection on emergence date were observed during establishment, but in general selection was purely directional. At Stony Brook most selection on emergence date operated indirectly through seedling size, whereas at the Weld Preserve direct selection was stronger. There were persistent effects of both seedling emergence date and rosette diameter on adult fitness components, and October rosette diameter explained 18% of the total phenotypic variance in fecundity. Overall, viability fitness components were much more important than fecundity selection. Winter survivorship was the single most important episode of selection.     

Predator‐induced phenotypic plasticity in tadpoles: extension or innovation?

Phenotypic plasticity, the ability of a trait to change as a function of the environment, is central to many ideas in evolutionary biology. A special case of phenotypic plasticity observed in many organisms is mediated by their natural predators. Here, we used a predator-prey system of dragonfly larvae and tadpoles to determine if predator-mediated phenotypic plasticity provides a novel way of surviving in the presence of predators (an innovation) or if it represents a simple extension of the way noninduced tadpoles survive predation. Tadpoles of Limnodynastes peronii were raised in the presence and absence of predation, which then entered a survival experiment. Induced morphological traits, primarily tail height and tail muscle height, were found to be under selection, indicating that predator-mediated phenotypic plasticity may be adaptive. Although predator-induced animals survived better, the multivariate linear selection gradients were similar between the two tadpole groups, suggesting that predator-mediated phenotypic plasticity is an extension of existing survival strategies. In addition, nonlinear selection gradients indicated a cost of predator-induced plasticity that may limit the ability of phenotypic plasticity to enhance survival in the presence of predators.     

COMPONENTS OF PHENOTYPIC SELECTION: POLLEN EXPORT AND FLOWER COROLLA WIDTH IN IPOMOPSIS AGGREGATA

In the hummingbird-pollinated herb Ipomopsis aggregata, selection through male function during pollination favors wide corolla tubes. We explored the mechanisms behind this selection, using phenotypic selection analysis to compare effects of corolla width on two components of male pollination success, pollinator visit rate and pollen exported per visit. During single visits by captive hummingbirds, flowers with wider corollas exported more pollen, and more dye used as a pollen analogue, to stigmas of recipient flowers. Corolla width was less strongly related to visit rate in the field, and had no direct effect on visit rate after nectar production and corolla length were controlled for. Moreover, the phenotypic selection differential was 80% higher for the effect on pollen exported per visit, suggesting that this is the more important mechanism of selection.     

Where have all the blue flowers gone: pollinator responses and selection on flower colour in New Zealand Wahlenbergia albomarginata

Although pollinators are thought to select on flower colour, few studies have experimentally decoupled effects of colour from correlated traits on pollinator visitation and pollen transfer. We combined selection analysis and phenotypic manipulations to measure the effect of petal colour on visitation and pollen export at two spatial scales in Wahlenbergia albomarginata. This species is representative of many New Zealand alpine herbs that have secondarily evolved white or pale flowers. The major pollinators, solitary bees, exerted phenotypic selection on flower size but not colour, quantified by bee vision. When presented with manipulated flowers, bees visited flowers painted blue to resemble a congener over white flowers in large, but not small, experimental arrays. Pollen export was higher for blue flowers in large arrays. Pollinator preference does not explain the pale colouration of W. albomarginata, as commonly hypothesized. Absence of bright blue could be driven instead by indirect selection of correlated characters.