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1.
In this study, a hierarchical threshold mixed model based on a cumulative t-link specification for the analysis of ordinal data or more, specifically, calving ease scores, was developed. The validation of this model and the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm was carried out on simulated data from normally and t4 (i.e. a t-distribution with four degrees of freedom) distributed populations using the deviance information criterion (DIC) and a pseudo Bayes factor (PBF) measure to validate recently proposed model choice criteria. The simulation study indicated that although inference on the degrees of freedom parameter is possible, MCMC mixing was problematic. Nevertheless, the DIC and PBF were validated to be satisfactory measures of model fit to data. A sire and maternal grandsire cumulative t-link model was applied to a calving ease dataset from 8847 Italian Piemontese first parity dams. The cumulative t-link model was shown to lead to posterior means of direct and maternal heritabilities (0.40 ± 0.06, 0.11 ± 0.04) and a direct maternal genetic correlation (-0.58 ± 0.15) that were not different from the corresponding posterior means of the heritabilities (0.42 ± 0.07, 0.14 ± 0.04) and the genetic correlation (-0.55 ± 0.14) inferred under the conventional cumulative probit link threshold model. Furthermore, the correlation (> 0.99) between posterior means of sire progeny merit from the two models suggested no meaningful rerankings. Nevertheless, the cumulative t-link model was decisively chosen as the better fitting model for this calving ease data using DIC and PBF.  相似文献   

2.
The implementation of genetic groups in BLUP evaluations accounts for different expectations of breeding values in base animals. Notwithstanding, many feasible structures of genetic groups exist and there are no analytical tools described to compare them easily. In this sense, the recent development of a simple and stable procedure to calculate the Bayes factor between nested competing models allowed us to develop a new approach of that method focused on compared models with different structures of random genetic groups. The procedure is based on a reparameterization of the model in terms of intraclass correlation of genetic groups. The Bayes factor can be easily calculated from the output of a Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling by averaging conditional densities at the null intraclass correlation. It compares two nested models, a model with a given structure of genetic groups against a model without genetic groups. The calculation of the Bayes factor between different structures of genetic groups can be quickly and easily obtained from the Bayes factor between the nested models. We applied this approach to a weaning weight data set of the Bruna dels Pirineus beef cattle, comparing several structures of genetic groups, and the final results showed that the preferable structure was an only group for unknown dams and different groups for unknown sires for each year of calving.  相似文献   

3.
A fundamental issue in quantitative trait locus (QTL) mapping is to determine the plausibility of the presence of a QTL at a given genome location. Bayesian analysis offers an attractive way of testing alternative models (here, QTL vs. no-QTL) via the Bayes factor. There have been several numerical approaches to computing the Bayes factor, mostly based on Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), but these strategies are subject to numerical or stability problems. We propose a simple and stable approach to calculating the Bayes factor between nested models. The procedure is based on a reparameterization of a variance component model in terms of intra-class correlation. The Bayes factor can then be easily calculated from the output of a MCMC scheme by averaging conditional densities at the null intra-class correlation. We studied the performance of the method using simulation. We applied this approach to QTL analysis in an outbred population. We also compared it with the Likelihood Ratio Test and we analyzed its stability. Simulation results were very similar to the simulated parameters. The posterior probability of the QTL model increases as the QTL effect does. The location of the QTL was also correctly obtained. The use of meta-analysis is suggested from the properties of the Bayes factor.  相似文献   

4.

Background

The distribution of residual effects in linear mixed models in animal breeding applications is typically assumed normal, which makes inferences vulnerable to outlier observations. In order to mute the impact of outliers, one option is to fit models with residuals having a heavy-tailed distribution. Here, a Student''s-t model was considered for the distribution of the residuals with the degrees of freedom treated as unknown. Bayesian inference was used to investigate a bivariate Student''s-t (BSt) model using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods in a simulation study and analysing field data for gestation length and birth weight permitted to study the practical implications of fitting heavy-tailed distributions for residuals in linear mixed models.

Methods

In the simulation study, bivariate residuals were generated using Student''s-t distribution with 4 or 12 degrees of freedom, or a normal distribution. Sire models with bivariate Student''s-t or normal residuals were fitted to each simulated dataset using a hierarchical Bayesian approach. For the field data, consisting of gestation length and birth weight records on 7,883 Italian Piemontese cattle, a sire-maternal grandsire model including fixed effects of sex-age of dam and uncorrelated random herd-year-season effects were fitted using a hierarchical Bayesian approach. Residuals were defined to follow bivariate normal or Student''s-t distributions with unknown degrees of freedom.

Results

Posterior mean estimates of degrees of freedom parameters seemed to be accurate and unbiased in the simulation study. Estimates of sire and herd variances were similar, if not identical, across fitted models. In the field data, there was strong support based on predictive log-likelihood values for the Student''s-t error model. Most of the posterior density for degrees of freedom was below 4. Posterior means of direct and maternal heritabilities for birth weight were smaller in the Student''s-t model than those in the normal model. Re-rankings of sires were observed between heavy-tailed and normal models.

Conclusions

Reliable estimates of degrees of freedom were obtained in all simulated heavy-tailed and normal datasets. The predictive log-likelihood was able to distinguish the correct model among the models fitted to heavy-tailed datasets. There was no disadvantage of fitting a heavy-tailed model when the true model was normal. Predictive log-likelihood values indicated that heavy-tailed models with low degrees of freedom values fitted gestation length and birth weight data better than a model with normally distributed residuals.Heavy-tailed and normal models resulted in different estimates of direct and maternal heritabilities, and different sire rankings. Heavy-tailed models may be more appropriate for reliable estimation of genetic parameters from field data.  相似文献   

5.

Background

The cyanobacterial genus Nostoc includes several species forming centimetre-large gelatinous colonies in nutrient-poor freshwaters and harsh semi-terrestrial environments with extended drought or freezing. These Nostoc species have filaments with normal photosynthetic cells and N2-fixing heterocysts embedded in an extensive gelatinous matrix of polysaccharides and many other organic substances providing biological and environmental protection. Large colony size imposes constraints on the use of external resources and the gelatinous matrix represents extra costs and reduced growth rates.

Scope

The objective of this review is to evaluate the mechanisms behind the low rates of growth and mortality, protection against environmental hazards and the persistence and longevity of gelatinous Nostoc colonies, and their ability to economize with highly limiting resources.

Conclusions

Simple models predict the decline in uptake of dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) and a decline in the growth rate of spherical freshwater colonies of N. pruniforme and N. zetterstedtii and sheet-like colonies of N. commune in response to a thicker diffusion boundary layer, lower external DIC concentration and higher organic carbon mass per surface area (CMA) of the colony. Measured growth rates of N. commune and N. pruniforme at high DIC availability comply with general empirical predictions of maximum growth rate (i.e. doubling time 10–14 d) as functions of CMA for marine macroalgae and as functions of tissue thickness for aquatic and terrestrial plants, while extremely low growth rates of N. zetterstedtii (i.e. doubling time 2–3 years) are 10-fold lower than model predictions, either because of very low ambient DIC and/or an extremely costly colony matrix. DIC uptake is limited by diffusion at low concentrations for all species, although they exhibit efficient HCO3 uptake, accumulation of respiratory DIC within the colonies and very low CO2 compensation points. Long light paths and light attenuation by structural substances in large Nostoc colonies cause lower quantum efficiency and assimilation number and higher light compensation points than in unicells and other aquatic macrophytes. Extremely low growth and mortality rates of N. zetterstedtii reflect stress-selected adaptation to nutrient- and DIC-poor temperate lakes, while N. pruniforme exhibits a mixed ruderal- and stress-selected strategy with slow growth and year-long survival prevailing in sub-Arctic lakes and faster growth and shorter longevity in temperate lakes. Nostoc commune and its close relative N. flagelliforme have a mixed stress–disturbance strategy not found among higher plants, with stress selection to limiting water and nutrients and disturbance selection in quiescent dry or frozen stages. Despite profound ecological differences between species, active growth of temperate specimens is mostly restricted to the same temperature range (0–35 °C; maximum at 25 °C). Future studies should aim to unravel the processes behind the extreme persistence and low metabolism of Nostoc species under ambient resource supply on sediment and soil surfaces.  相似文献   

6.
Local malaria transmission in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) came to an end in 1997. Nevertheless, UAE has been subjected to substantial importation of malaria cases from abroad, concerning both UAE nationals and immigrants from malarious countries with a total number of 2,119 cases in 2007. To evaluate a new DNA extraction technique using nested PCR, blood samples were collected from 132 individuals who presented to Infectious Diseases Department in Rashid Hospital, Dubai, and Central Department of Malaria Control with fever and persistent headache. Giemsa-stained blood films and ELISA test for malaria antibodies were carried out for detection of Plasmodium infection. Plasmodium infections were identified with the genus-specific primer set and species differentiation using nested PCR. A rapid procedure for diagnosis of malaria infections directly from dried blood spots using for the first time DNA extract from FTA Elute cards was evaluated in contrast to extraction techniques using FTA classic cards and rapid boiling technique. Our new simple technique for DNA extraction using FTA Elute cards was very sensitive giving a sensitivity of 100% compared to 94% using FTA classic cards and 62% in the rapid boiling technique. No complex preparation of blood samples was required prior to the amplification. The production cost of DNA isolation in our PCR assay was much less in comparable to that of other DNA extraction protocols. The nested PCR detected plasmodial infection and could differentiate P. falciparum from P. vivax, and also detected the mixed infection.  相似文献   

7.
In addition to experimental studies, computational models provide valuable information about colony development in scleractinian corals. Using our simulation model, we show how environmental factors such as nutrient distribution and light availability affect growth patterns of coral colonies. To compare the simulated coral growth forms with those of real coral colonies, we quantitatively compared our modelling results with coral colonies of the morphologically variable Caribbean coral genus Madracis. Madracis species encompass a relatively large morphological variation in colony morphology and hence represent a suitable genus to compare, for the first time, simulated and real coral growth forms in three dimensions using a quantitative approach. This quantitative analysis of three-dimensional growth forms is based on a number of morphometric parameters (such as branch thickness, branch spacing, etc.). Our results show that simulated coral morphologies share several morphological features with real coral colonies (M. mirabilis, M. decactis, M. formosa and M. carmabi). A significant correlation was found between branch thickness and branch spacing for both real and simulated growth forms. Our present model is able to partly capture the morphological variation in closely related and morphologically variable coral species of the genus Madracis.  相似文献   

8.
9.

Background and Aims

It has traditionally been considered that the flowers of Scrophularia are mainly pollinated by wasps. We studied the pollination system of four species which stand out for their large and showy flowers: S. sambucifolia and S. grandiflora (endemics of the western Mediterranean region), S. trifoliata (an endemic of the Tyrrhenian islands) and S. calliantha (an endemic of the Canary Islands). Our principal aim was to test whether these species were pollinated by birds or showed a mixed pollination system between insects and birds.

Methods

Censuses and captures of insects and birds were performed to obtain pollen load transported and deposited on the stigmas. Also, a qualitative and quantitative analysis of the flowers and inflorescences was carried out.

Key Results

Flowers were visited by Hymenoptera and by passerine birds. The Canarian species was the most visited by birds, especially by Phylloscopus canariensis, and its flowers were also accessed by juveniles of the lizard Gallotia stehlini. The most important birds in the other three species were Sylvia melanocephala and S. atricapilla. The most important insect-functional groups in the mixed pollination system were: honey-bees and wasps in S. sambucifolia; bumble-bees and wasps in S. grandiflora; wasps in S. trifoliata; and a small bee in S. calliantha.

Conclusions

The species studied show a mixed pollination system between insects and passerine birds. In S. calliantha there is, in addition, a third agent (juveniles of Gallotia stehlini). The participation of birds in this mixed pollination system presents varying degrees of importance because, while in S. calliantha they are the main pollinators, in the other species they interact to complement the insects which are the main pollinators. A review of different florae showed that the large showy floral morphotypes of Scrophularia are concentrated in the western and central Mediterranean region, Macaronesia and USA (New Mexico).  相似文献   

10.
Many rodent species act as reservoir hosts of zoonotic cutaneous leishmaniasis in endemic areas. In the present study a simple and reliable assay based on nested PCR was developed for the detection and identification of Leishmania parasites from rodent skin samples. We designed Leishmania-specific primers that successfully amplified ITS regions of Leishmania major, Leishmania gerbilli and Leishmania turanica using nested PCR. Out of 95 field collected Rhombomys opimus, 21 were positive by microscopic examination and 48 by nested PCR. The percentage of gerbils infected with L. major, L. gerbilli and L. turanica was 3.2%, 1.1% and 27.4%, respectively. In 15.8% of the rodents, we found mixed natural infections by L. major and L. turanica, 1.1% by L. major and L. gerbilli, and 2.1% by the three species. We concluded that this method is simple and reliable for detecting and identifying Leishmania species circulating in rodent populations.  相似文献   

11.
12.
This study describes the seasonal distribution of larvae, nymph, and adult life stages for 3 species of ixodid ticks collected by tick drag and sweep methods from various habitats in the Republic of Korea (ROK). Grasses less than 0.5 m in height, including herbaceous and crawling vegetation, and deciduous, conifer, and mixed forests with abundant leaf/needle litter were surveyed at United States (US) and ROK operated military training sites and privately owned lands near the demilitarized zone from April-October, 2004 and 2005. Haemaphysalis longicornis Neumann adults and nymphs were more frequently collected from April-August, while those of Haemaphysalis flava Neumann and Ixodes nipponensis Kitaoka and Saito were collected more frequently from April-July and again during October. H. longicornis was the most frequently collected tick in grass habitats (98.9%), while H. flava was more frequently collected in deciduous (60.2%) and conifer (57.4%) forest habitats. While more H. flava (54.1%) were collected in mixed forest habitats than H. longicornis (35.2%), the differences were not significant. I. nipponensis was more frequently collected from conifer (mean 8.8) compared to deciduous (3.2) and mixed (2.4) forests.  相似文献   

13.
The phylogeography of cattle genetic variants has been extensively described and has informed the history of domestication. However, there remains a dearth of demographic models inferred from such data. Here, we describe sequence diversity at 37 000 bp sampled from 17 genes in cattle from Africa, Europe and India. Clearly distinct population histories are suggested between Bos indicus and Bos taurus, with the former displaying higher diversity statistics. We compare the unfolded site frequency spectra in each to those simulated using a diffusion approximation method and build a best-fitting model of past demography. This implies an earlier, possibly glaciation-induced population bottleneck in B. taurus ancestry with a later, possibly domestication-associated demographic constriction in B. indicus. Strikingly, the modelled indicine history also requires a majority secondary admixture from the South Asian aurochs, indicating a complex, more diffuse domestication process. This perhaps involved multiple domestications and/or introgression from wild oxen to domestic herds; the latter is plausible from archaeological evidence of contemporaneous wild and domestic remains across different regions of South Asia.  相似文献   

14.

Background and Aims

Crop models for herbaceous ornamental species typically include functions for temperature and photoperiod responses, but very few incorporate vernalization, which is a requirement of many traditional crops. This study investigated the development of floriculture crop models, which describe temperature responses, plus photoperiod or vernalization requirements, using Australian native ephemerals Brunonia australis and Calandrinia sp.

Methods

A novel approach involved the use of a field crop modelling tool, DEVEL2. This optimization program estimates the parameters of selected functions within the development rate models using an iterative process that minimizes sum of squares residual between estimated and observed days for the phenological event. Parameter profiling and jack-knifing are included in DEVEL2 to remove bias from parameter estimates and introduce rigour into the parameter selection process.

Key Results

Development rate of B. australis from planting to first visible floral bud (VFB) was predicted using a multiplicative approach with a curvilinear function to describe temperature responses and a broken linear function to explain photoperiod responses. A similar model was used to describe the development rate of Calandrinia sp., except the photoperiod function was replaced with an exponential vernalization function, which explained a facultative cold requirement and included a coefficient for determining the vernalization ceiling temperature. Temperature was the main environmental factor influencing development rate for VFB to anthesis of both species and was predicted using a linear model.

Conclusions

The phenology models for B. australis and Calandrinia sp. described development rate from planting to VFB and from VFB to anthesis in response to temperature and photoperiod or vernalization and may assist modelling efforts of other herbaceous ornamental plants. In addition to crop management, the vernalization function could be used to identify plant communities most at risk from predicted increases in temperature due to global warming.  相似文献   

15.
Spatial distributions of several species of plant-parasitic nematodes were determined in each of three fallow vegetable fields and in smaller subunits of those fields. Goodness of fit to each of several theoretical distributions was tested hy means of a X² test. Distributions for most species showed good agreement with a negative binomial model. An exception occurred with Crictmemella sp., which showed a better fit to the Neyman Type A distribution. For nematodes distributed according to the negative binomial model, the number of cores per composite sample needed to achieve specified relative errors was calculated. For a given nematode species, such as Quinisulcius actus (Allen) Siddiqi or Meloidogyne incognita (Kofoid &White) Chitwood, the k values for the negative binomial distribution increased as field size decreased, with the result that fewer cores were needed to achieve the same level of precision in a smaller field. Best results were achieved when the single sample was used to estimate populations in fields of 0.25-0.45 ha in size. When using only a single composite sample to estimate mixed populations of the nematodes studied here in a field of that size, approximately 22 cores per composite sample would be needed to estimate all population means within a standard error to mean ratio of 25%. Considerably, more cores were needed to maintain a given level of precision in fields of 1.0 ha or greater, and it may be necessary to subdivide larger unils (ca. 1.5 ha and up) for accurate sampling.  相似文献   

16.
Improved methods for detection of Cryptosporidium oocysts in environmental and clinical samples are urgently needed to improve detection of cryptosporidiosis. We compared the sensitivity of 7 PCR primer sets for detection of Cryptosporidium parvum. Each target gene was amplified by PCR or nested PCR with serially diluted DNA extracted from purified C. parvum oocysts. The target genes included Cryptosporidium oocyst wall protein (COWP), small subunit ribosomal RNA (SSU rRNA), and random amplified polymorphic DNA. The detection limit of the PCR method ranged from 103 to 104 oocysts, and the nested PCR method was able to detect 100 to 102 oocysts. A second-round amplification of target genes showed that the nested primer set specific for the COWP gene proved to be the most sensitive one compared to the other primer sets tested in this study and would therefore be useful for the detection of C. parvum.  相似文献   

17.
Empirical data providing evidence for a colimitation of an herbivore by two or more essential nutrients are scarce, particularly in regard to biochemical resources. Here, a graphical model is presented, which describes the growth of an herbivore in a system with two potentially limiting resources. To verify this model, life-history experiments were conducted with the herbivore Daphnia magna feeding on the picocyanobacterium Synechococcus elongatus, which was supplemented with increasing amounts of cholesterol either in the presence or the absence of saturating amounts of eicosapentaenoic acid (EPA). For comparison, D. magna was raised on diets containing different proportions of S. elongatus and the cholesterol- and EPA-rich eukaryotic alga Nannochloropsis limnetica. Somatic and population growth of D. magna on a sterol- and EPA-deficient diet was initially constrained by the absence of sterols. With increased sterol availability, a colimitation by EPA became apparent and when the sterol requirements were met, the growth-limiting factor was shifted from a limitation by sterols to a limitation by EPA. These data imply that herbivores are frequently limited by two or more essential nutrients simultaneously. Hence, the concept of colimitation has to be incorporated into models assessing nutrient-limited growth kinetics of herbivores to accurately predict demographic changes and population dynamics.  相似文献   

18.
The effect of simulated rainfall frequency on the pathogenicity of Pratylenchus zeae and P. brachyurus was studied in four greenhouse experiments. Corn and grain sorghum were watered at different intervals during predetermined cycles to create a gradient of water-stressed plants. Each experiment included nematode and uninoculated treatments. Growth reaction of plants to different frequencies of watering was significant but was not affected by the presence of nematodes. Pratylenchus zeae numbers differed among watering regimens on corn but not on sorghum. Numbers of P. brachyurus did not differ among watering regimens on corn or sorghum. Both lesion nematode species were harmful to corn, but sorghum increased plant growth in response to P. brachyurus. It is concluded that water stress is not the only environmental factor that influences the pathogenicity of these two species on corn and sorghum.  相似文献   

19.
In order to acquire prevalence and genetic data on Cryptosporidium infections in captive lizards and snakes kept as pets, a survey was conducted on 150 individual reptiles from southern Italy. Fecal samples were preserved in 5% formalin and analyzed using a commercial immunofluorescence assay (IFA) for the detection of Cryptosporidium oocysts and Giardia cysts. IFA revealed the presence of Cryptosporidium oocysts in nine of the 150 samples examined (6.0%), precisely in 6/125 snakes (4.8%) and in 3/25 lizards (12.0%); all fecal samples tested negative for the presence of Giardia cysts. Molecular characterization based on nested PCR amplification and sequencing of the SSU-rRNA gene, revealed the presence of Cryptosporidium serpentis in three samples from snakes (Boa constrictor constrictor, Elapheguttata guttata guttata and Python molurus).  相似文献   

20.
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