Mismatch Between Birth Date and Vegetation Phenology Slows the Demography of Roe Deer

Marked impacts of climate change on biodiversity have frequently been demonstrated, including temperature-related shifts in phenology and life-history traits. One potential major impact of climate change is the modification of synchronization between the phenology of different trophic levels. High phenotypic plasticity in laying date has allowed many bird species to track the increasingly early springs resulting from recent environmental change, but although changes in the timing of reproduction have been well studied in birds, these questions have only recently been addressed in mammals. To track peak resource availability, large herbivores like roe deer, with a widespread distribution across Europe, should also modify their life-history schedule in response to changes in vegetation phenology over time. In this study, we analysed the influence of climate change on the timing of roe deer births and the consequences for population demography and individual fitness. Our study provides a rare quantification of the demographic costs associated with the failure of a species to modify its phenology in response to a changing world. Given these fitness costs, the lack of response of roe deer birth dates to match the increasingly earlier onset of spring is in stark contrast with the marked phenotypic responses to climate change reported in many other mammals. We suggest that the lack of phenotypic plasticity in birth timing in roe deer is linked to its inability to track environmental cues of variation in resource availability for the timing of parturition.     

Variations in satellite-derived phenology in China's temperate vegetation

The relationship between vegetation phenology and climate is a crucial topic in global change research because it indicates dynamic responses of terrestrial ecosystems to climate changes. In this study, we investigate the possible impact of recent climate changes on growing season duration in the temperate vegetation of China, using the advanced very high resolution radiometer (AVHRR)/normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) biweekly time-series data collected from January 1982 to December 1999 and concurrent mean temperature and precipitation data. The results show that over the study period, the growing season duration has lengthened by 1.16 days yr⁻¹ in temperate region of China. The green-up of vegetation has advanced in spring by 0.79 days yr⁻¹ and the dormancy delayed in autumn by 0.37 days yr⁻¹. The dates of onset for phenological events are most significantly related with the mean temperature during the preceding 2–3 months. A warming in the early spring (March to early May) by 1°C could cause an earlier onset of green-up of 7.5 days, whereas the same increase of mean temperature during autumn (mid-August through early October) could lead to a delay of 3.8 days in vegetation dormancy. Variations in precipitation also influenced the duration of growing season, but such influence differed among vegetation types and phenological phases.     

1982—2009年基于卫星数据的北半球中高纬地区植被春季物候动态及其与气候的关系

深入认识北半球植被物候在全球变暖背景下的动态变化特征,对于评估和预测生态系统结构和功能对气候变化的响应有重要的指示作用.遥感技术是获取北半球植被春季物候的最重要方法,但是由于物候提取算法的差异,目前还存在较大的不确定性.本文利用5种方法,基于卫星获取的归一化植被指数估算了北半球中高纬地区1982—2009年植被春季物候开始日期,分析了该日期的多年动态变化的时空特征,并探讨了气候变化对春季物候变化的影响.结果表明: 研究区植被春季物候开始日期呈现提前趋势,研究期间提前(4.0±0.8) d,其中,欧亚大陆提前速率为(0.22±0.04) d·a^-1,显著高于北美大陆的变化速率(0.03±0.02 d·a^-1);不同植被类型的变化趋势不同,5种方法都显示草地表现为显著提前趋势,而林地的提前趋势不显著.区域平均的植被春季物候开始日期的年际波动主要受春季温度的变化所驱动(r² =0.61,P<0.001), 温度每上升1 ℃,可以导致春季物候提前(3.2±0.5) d,而春季降水影响不显著(P>0.05).     

东北地区植被物候时序变化

植被与气候的关系非常密切,植被物候可作为气候变化的指示器。东北地区位于我国最北部,是气候变化的敏感区域,研究该区植被物候对气候变化的响应对阐明陆地生态体统碳循环具有重要意义。利用GIMMS AVHRR遥感数据集得到了东北地区阔叶林、针叶林、草原和草甸4种植被25a(1982—2006年)的物候时序变化,得出4种植被春季物候都表现出先提前后推迟的现象,秋季物候的变化则比较复杂,阔叶林和针叶林整体上呈现出秋季物候推迟的趋势,草原和草甸则表现为提前-推迟-提前的趋势。应用偏最小二乘(Partial Least Squares)回归分析了该区域植被物候与气候因子之间的关系,结果表明:春季温度与阔叶林、针叶林和草甸春季物候负相关,前一年冬季温度与草原春季物候正相关,降水与植被春季物候的关系有点复杂;4种植被秋季物候与夏季温度均呈正相关,除草原外,其余3种植被秋季物候均与夏季降水负相关。植被春季物候可能主要受温度影响,而秋季物候很可能主要受降水控制。     

High nest failure but better nestling quality for early breeders in an alpine population of Northern Wheatear (Oenanthe oenanthe)

Climate change is leading to the advancement of spring conditions, resulting in an earlier snowmelt and green-up, with highest rates of change in highly seasonal environments, including alpine habitats. Migratory birds breeding at high elevations need to time their arrival and lay dates accurately with this advancement, but also with the annually variable spring conditions at their breeding sites, to maximize nest survival probabilities and reproductive output. Nest survival probability and mean nestling mass were analysed in relation to lay date and habitat conditions in an alpine population of the migratory Northern Wheatear Oenanthe oenanthe collected over six consecutive breeding seasons in the Western Italian Alps. This open grassland species showed the lowest nest survival probability in years with an early onset of spring conditions. Within-season, nest survival was highest when breeding late, at lower elevations, and when grass cover and grass height were higher. Both across- and within-season, severe weather conditions may indirectly lead to higher early season nest failure rates by increasing predation risk. By contrast, mean nestling mass, and thus the quality of the fledglings, was lower when breeding late. This might be driven by a mismatch with the peak in food abundance. Breeding early is thus generally advantageous in terms of chick quality in our high-elevation population, but reproductive success is limited by the risk of nest failure that is higher in early springs and early in the season. This trade-off between breeding early and late may thus allow Northern Wheatears to maximize fitness under highly variable spring conditions. However, climate change may cause disruption to this trade-off, and shifts in phenology could become a threat for migratory alpine birds that might not be able to keep track of advancing spring conditions.     

Maternal winter body mass and not spring phenology determine annual calf production in an Arctic herbivore

Warming of the Arctic has resulted in earlier snowmelt and green‐up of plants in spring, potentially disrupting the synchrony between plant phenology and breeding phenology in herbivores. A negative relationship between offspring survival in West Greenland caribou and the timing of vegetation emergence was the first finding of such a mismatch in Arctic mammals. However, other studies indicate that the energy for foetal growth and early lactation is predominantly drawn from stored energy reserves typical of ‘capital’ breeders, suggesting that conditions well before spring influence calf production more than the timing of spring onset. Here we use 20 years of observations of marked Svalbard reindeer to evaluate determinants of annual recruitment, as measured by the presence of a calf at foot in mid‐summer. Spring temperatures and the enhanced vegetation index were used as proxies for spring onset, while data on body mass and pregnancy rates in late winter allowed us to determine maternal condition and the reproductive status before spring. Pregnancy rate, offspring survival and annual recruitment were all strongly correlated with average late winter adult female body mass (r = 0.87; r = 0.83; r = 0.92, respectively). Contrary to the findings in West Greenland, neither early calf survival nor annual recruitment were correlated with the two measures of annual variation in spring phenology (r = – 0.07, p = 0.8 and r = – 0.15, p = 0.6, respectively). We also revisit the Greenland data and reveal that the pattern of covariance between early and late measures of fecundity, as well as between early measures of fecundity and offspring survival, correspond with the results from Svalbard. Our results emphasize that conditions affecting maternal body mass during winter explain close to all the variation in recruitment, questioning the importance of the role of a mismatch between plant phenology and calving date.     

Climate change and fitness components of a migratory bird breeding in the Mediterranean region

The increase in spring temperatures in temperate regions over the last two decades has led to an advancing spring phenology, and most resident birds have responded to it by advancing their onset of breeding. The pied flycatcher (Ficedula hypoleuca) is a long‐distance migrant bird with a relatively late onset of breeding with respect to both resident birds and spring phenology in Europe. In the present correlational study, we show that some fitness components of pied flycatchers are suffering from climate change in two of the southernmost European breeding populations. In both montane study areas, temperature during May increased between 1980 and 2000 and an advancement of oak leafing was detected by using the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) to assess tree phenology. This might result in an advancement of the peak in availability of caterpillars, the main prey during the nestling stage. Over the past 18 yr, the time of egg laying and clutch size of pied flycatchers were not affected by the increase in spring temperatures in these Mediterranean populations. However, this increase seems to have an adverse effect on the reproductive output of pied flycatchers over the same period. Our data suggest that the mismatch between the timing of peak food supply and nestling demand caused by recent climate change might result in a reduction of parental energy expenditure that is reflected in a reduction of nestling growth and survival of fledged young in our study populations. The data seem to indicate that the breeding season has not shifted and it is the environment that has shifted away from the timing of the pied flycatcher breeding season. Mediterranean pied flycatchers were not able to advance their onset of breeding, probably, because they are constrained by their late arrival date and their restricted high altitude breeding habitat selection near the southern border of their range.     

Change in the Green-Up Dates for Quercus mongolica in Northeast China and Its Climate-Driven Mechanism from 1962 to 2012

The currently available studies on the green-up date were mainly based on ground observations and/or satellite data, and few model simulations integrated with wide coverage satellite data have been reported at large scale over a long time period (i.e., > 30 years). In this study, we combined phenology mechanism model, long-term climate data and synoptic scale remote sensing data to investigate the change in the green-up dates for Quercus mongolica over 33 weather stations in Northeast China and its climate-driven mechanism during 1962-2012. The results indicated that the unified phenology model can be well parameterized with the satellite derived green-up dates. The optimal daily mean temperature for chilling effect was between -27°C and 1°C for Q. mongolica in Northeast China, while the optimal daily mean temperature for forcing effect was above -3°C. The green-up dates for Q. mongolica across Northeast China showed a delayed latitudinal gradient of 2.699 days degree^-1, with the earliest date on the Julian day 93 (i.e., 3^th April) in the south and the latest date on the Julian day 129 (i.e., 9^th May) in the north. The green-up date for Q. mongolica in Northeast China has advanced 6.6 days (1.3 days decade^-1) from 1962 to 2012. With the prevailing warming in autumn, winter and spring in Northeast China during the past 51 years, the chilling effect for Q. mongolica has been weakened, while the forcing effect has been enhanced. The advancing trend in the green-up dates for Q. mongolica implied that the enhanced forcing effect to accelerate green-up was stronger than the weakened chilling effect to hold back green-up while the changes of both effects were caused by the warming climate.     

Field evidence for earlier leaf-out dates in alpine grassland on the eastern Tibetan Plateau from 1990 to 2006

Worldwide, many plant species are experiencing an earlier onset of spring phenophases due to climate warming. Rapid recent temperature increases on the Tibetan Plateau (TP) have triggered changes in the spring phenology of the local vegetation. However, remote sensing studies of the land surface phenology have reached conflicting interpretations about green-up patterns observed on the TP since the mid-1990s. We investigated this issue using field phenological observations from 1990 to 2006, for 11 dominant plants on the TP at the levels of species, families (Gramineae—grasses and Cyperaceae—sedges) and vegetation communities (alpine meadow and alpine steppe). We found a significant trend of earlier leaf-out dates for one species (Koeleria cristata). The leaf-out dates of both Gramineae and Cyperaceae had advanced (the latter significantly, starting an average of 9 days later per year than the former), but the correlation between them was significant. The leaf-out dates of both vegetation communities also advanced, but the pattern was only significant in the alpine meadow. This study provides the first field evidence of advancement in spring leaf phenology on the TP and suggests that the phenology of the alpine steppe can differ from that of the alpine meadow. These findings will be useful for understanding ecosystem responses to climate change and for grassland management on the TP.     

Population Densities,Vegetation Green-Up,and Plant Productivity: Impacts on Reproductive Success and Juvenile Body Mass in Reindeer

Global warming is expected to cause earlier springs and increased primary productivity in the Arctic. These changes may improve food availability for Arctic herbivores, but may also have negative effects by generating a mismatch between the surge of high quality food in the spring and the timing of reproduction. We analyzed a 10 year dataset of satellite derived measures of vegetation green-up, population densities, calf body masses and female reproductive success in 19 reindeer (Rangifer tarandus) populations in Northern Norway. An early onset of spring and high peak plant productivity had positive effects on calf autumn body masses and female reproductive success. In addition, body masses and reproductive success were both negatively related to population density. The quantity of food available, as determined by the onset of vegetation green-up and plant productivity over the summer were the main drivers of body mass growth and reproductive success. We found no evidence for an effect of the speed of spring green-up. Nor did we detect a negative mismatch between early springs and subsequent recruitment. Effects of global warming on plant productivity and onset of spring is likely to positively affect sub-Arctic reindeer.     

Snowshoe hares display limited phenotypic plasticity to mismatch in seasonal camouflage

As duration of snow cover decreases owing to climate change, species undergoing seasonal colour moults can become colour mismatched with their background. The immediate adaptive solution to this mismatch is phenotypic plasticity, either in phenology of seasonal colour moults or in behaviours that reduce mismatch or its consequences. We observed nearly 200 snowshoe hares across a wide range of snow conditions and two study sites in Montana, USA, and found minimal plasticity in response to mismatch between coat colour and background. We found that moult phenology varied between study sites, likely due to differences in photoperiod and climate, but was largely fixed within study sites with only minimal plasticity to snow conditions during the spring white-to-brown moult. We also found no evidence that hares modify their behaviour in response to colour mismatch. Hiding and fleeing behaviours and resting spot preference of hares were more affected by variables related to season, site and concealment by vegetation, than by colour mismatch. We conclude that plasticity in moult phenology and behaviours in snowshoe hares is insufficient for adaptation to camouflage mismatch, suggesting that any future adaptation to climate change will require natural selection on moult phenology or behaviour.     

黄土高原植被物候变化及其对季节性气候变化的响应

受气候变化影响,全球范围内植被物候发生了显著变化,而目前针对不同植被分区类型下（荒漠草原区、典型草原区、森林草原区、落叶栎林区、落叶栎林亚区）植被物候变化及其对季节性气候变化响应的研究尚少。因此基于MODIS遥感归一化差值植被指数（MODIS NDVI：MOD13Q1）数据、中国植被区划数据及135个气象站点插值数据,利用Sen''s斜率估计、Hurst指数和高阶偏相关分析等方法,研究黄土高原2001-2018年植被物侯变化及其对季节性气候变化的响应。结果表明：（1）黄土高原植被生长季始期（SOS,Start of Growing Season）主要集中在第96-144天,子植被分区由西北向东南方向,逐渐呈现提前趋势,71.0%的像元植被SOS整体提前0-2 d/10a （α=0.05）,且在未来一段时间66%的像元植被SOS继续呈现提前趋势;植被生长季末期（EOS,End of Growing Season）主要集中在第288-304天,各子植被分区植被EOS变化基本保持一致,87.6％的像元植被EOS整体延迟0-3 d/10a （α=0.05）,且在未来一段时间有80%的像元植被EOS继续呈现推迟趋势。（2）黄土高原植被SOS主要受各季节温度的影响;当年春季降水导致植被SOS提前,主要分布在黄土高原中部;上年夏季和上年秋季降水增加会导致植被SOS推迟;当年春季、上年秋季和年初冬季的温度升高均会导致植被SOS提前;各子植被分区植被SOS对不同季节降水的响应存在差异,而对不同季节温度的响应具有一致性。（3）黄土高原植被EOS主要受各季节降水和秋季温度的影响;不同季节降水增加均会导致大部分植被EOS推迟;当年秋季温度导致整体区域植被EOS推迟,且各子植被区植被EOS对当年秋季温度响应具有一致性。该研究可为大尺度植被物候影响因素提供新的认识,也为植被适应未来气候变化提供借鉴。     

Never too late? Consequences of late birthdate for mass and survival of bighorn lambs

In strongly seasonal environments, the timing of birth can have important fitness consequences. We investigated which factors affect parturition date and how birthdate interacts with sex, maternal characteristics and environmental variables to affect the growth and survival of bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis) lambs in a marked population in Alberta. Over 14 years, the estimated birthdate of 216 lambs ranged from 21 May to 18 July. Parturition date was heritable and genetically correlated with maternal mass the previous fall. Weaning a lamb delayed parturition the following year by about 7 days. Birthdate did not affect summer growth rate, but late-born lambs were lighter in mid September (the approximate time of weaning) than early-born ones. Birthdate did not affect survival to weaning, but late birth decreased survival to 1 year for male lambs. Forage quality, measured by fecal crude protein, did not affect survival to 1 year. Once we accounted for lamb mass in mid September, birthdate no longer affected the probability of survival, suggesting that late birth decreased survival by shortening a lamb's growing season. Because there was no compensatory summer growth, late-born lambs were smaller than early-born ones at the onset of winter. Our data highlight the importance of birthdate on life history traits and suggest that resource scarcity had more severe consequences for juvenile males than for females.     

民勤荒漠植被对气候变化的响应

运用民勤荒漠区1974-2009年物候观测资料和2002-2010年植被样方观测资料以及同期气象资料,分析了荒漠植被对气候变化的响应.结果表明:1961-2010年,民勤荒漠区气温升高,空气湿度增大,年均气温升高速率大于全球水平和中国近百年平均水平;植物对气温变化的响应主要表现在春季物候提前、秋季物候推迟、生长季延长;植被对降水量变化的响应主要表现为植被盖度和纯盖度随降水量减少而降低,植株密度、植物多度随降水量变化而波动;植被盖度和纯盖度与年降水量的相关性较高,然后依次为6-7月和4-5月的降水量;植株密度和植物多度与9月降水量呈正相关;植物春季物候提前的次序是芽初膨大期＞芽开放期＞开花始期＞展叶始期和展叶盛期＞花蕾序出现＞开花盛期＞开花末期＞果实成熟期;秋季物候推迟的次序是叶全变色期＞落叶始期＞叶初变色期＞落叶末期.春季气温升高对民勤荒漠区植物物候的影响大于秋季气温升高对物候的影响.     

Advancing breeding phenology in response to environmental change in a wild red deer population

Most evidence for advances in phenology of in response to recent climate warming in wild vertebrate populations has come from long‐term studies of birds. Few studies have either documented phenological advances or tested their climatic causes and demographic consequences in wild mammal systems. Using a long‐term study of red deer on the Isle of Rum, Scotland, we present evidence of significant temporal trends in six phenological traits: oestrus date and parturition date in females, and antler cast date, antler clean date, rut start date and rut end date in males. These traits advanced by between 5 and 12 days across a 28‐year study period. Local climate measures associated with plant growth in spring and summer (growing degree days) increased significantly over time and explained a significant amount of variation in all six phenological traits, largely accounting for temporal advances observed in some of the traits. However, there was no evidence for temporal changes in key female reproductive performance traits (offspring birth weight and offspring survival) in this population, despite significant relationships between these traits and female phenology. In males, average antler weights increased over time presumably as a result of improved resource availability and physiological condition through spring and summer. There was no evidence for any temporal change in average male annual breeding success, as might be expected if the timing of male rutting behaviour was failing to track advances in the timing of oestrus in females. Our results provide rare evidence linking phenological advances to climate warming in a wild mammal and highlight the potential complexity of relationships between climate warming, phenology and demography in wild vertebrates.     

Use of digital cameras for phenological observations

Vegetation phenology such as the onset of green-up and senescence is strongly controlled by climate and other environmental factors, and in turn affects the terrestrial carbon balance. Therefore, phenological observation is important as an indicator of global warming and for estimation of the terrestrial carbon balance. Because phenological responses differ from species to species, precise monitoring from the species scale to the global scale is required. In this study, we analyzed images from digital cameras, which have proliferated in recent years, to investigate their utility as remote sensors. We collected daily images taken by digital cameras in national parks across Japan over 8 years in wetland mixed deciduous forest, and evergreen broadleaved forest. Values of red, green, and blue (RGB) channels in each pixel within images were extracted, and a vegetation green excess index (2G-RBi) was calculated to detect phenology. The time series of 2G-RBi showed clear phenological patterns of each vegetation type in each year at the species or community scale. Even physiological damage due to a typhoon was detected. The dates of green-up were estimated easily and objectively from the second derivative of 2G-RBi, and a trend in yearly green-up dates of various types of vegetation was demonstrated. Furthermore, a strong correlation between interannual variations in green-up dates and local spring temperature was found, and the sensitivity of green-up date to temperature was revealed. The results suggest the utility of digital cameras for phenological observations at precise temporal and spatial resolutions, despite a year-to-year drift of color balance of camera as a technical device. As a form of near-surface remote sensing, digital cameras could obtain significant ecological information. Establishing camera networks could help us understand phenological responses at a wide range of scales.     

Quantitative genetic architecture of adaptive phenology traits in the deciduous tree,Populus trichocarpa (Torr. and Gray)

In a warming climate, the ability to accurately predict and track shifting environmental conditions will be fundamental for plant survival. Environmental cues define the transitions between growth and dormancy as plants synchronise development with favourable environmental conditions, however these cues are predicted to change under future climate projections which may have profound impacts on tree survival and growth. Here, we use a quantitative genetic approach to estimate the genetic basis of spring and autumn phenology in Populus trichocarpa to determine this species capacity for climate adaptation. We measured bud burst, leaf coloration, and leaf senescence traits across two years (2017–2018) and combine these observations with measures of lifetime growth to determine how genetic correlations between phenology and growth may facilitate or constrain adaptation. Timing of transitions differed between years, although we found strong cross year genetic correlations in all traits, suggesting that genotypes respond in consistent ways to seasonal cues. Spring and autumn phenology were correlated with lifetime growth, where genotypes that burst leaves early and shed them late had the highest lifetime growth. We also identified substantial heritable variation in the timing of all phenological transitions (h² = 0.5–0.8) and in lifetime growth (h² = 0.8). The combination of additive variation and favourable genetic correlations in phenology traits suggests that populations of cultivated varieties of P. Trichocarpa may have the capability to adapt their phenology to climatic changes without negative impacts on growth.Subject terms: Plant breeding, Forest ecology, Evolutionary genetics     

Changes in satellite‐derived spring vegetation green‐up date and its linkage to climate in China from 1982 to 2010: a multimethod analysis

The change in spring phenology is recognized to exert a major influence on carbon balance dynamics in temperate ecosystems. Over the past several decades, several studies focused on shifts in spring phenology; however, large uncertainties still exist, and one understudied source could be the method implemented in retrieving satellite‐derived spring phenology. To account for this potential uncertainty, we conducted a multimethod investigation to quantify changes in vegetation green‐up date from 1982 to 2010 over temperate China, and to characterize climatic controls on spring phenology. Over temperate China, the five methods estimated that the vegetation green‐up onset date advanced, on average, at a rate of 1.3 ± 0.6 days per decade (ranging from 0.4 to 1.9 days per decade) over the last 29 years. Moreover, the sign of the trends in vegetation green‐up date derived from the five methods were broadly consistent spatially and for different vegetation types, but with large differences in the magnitude of the trend. The large intermethod variance was notably observed in arid and semiarid vegetation types. Our results also showed that change in vegetation green‐up date is more closely correlated with temperature than with precipitation. However, the temperature sensitivity of spring vegetation green‐up date became higher as precipitation increased, implying that precipitation is an important regulator of the response of vegetation spring phenology to change in temperature. This intricate linkage between spring phenology and precipitation must be taken into account in current phenological models which are mostly driven by temperature.     

气候变化对桂林植物物候的影响

利用线性倾向估计、Mann-Kendall突变检测等方法,对桂林气候(1951～2009年)和3种植物物候(1983～2009年)的趋势变化特征进行了分析,并探讨了物候期与气温、日照、降水等气象因子的相关性及其对主要气候影响因子的响应情况。结果表明:在当地气候变化背景下,桂林市植物物候期发生了不同程度的变化,春季物候期提前,秋季物候期推迟,绿叶期延长;平均气温是影响植物物候期最为显著的气象因子,气温每增高1℃,春季物候平均提前5d左右,秋季物候平均推迟8d左右,绿叶期延长约27d;春季物候和绿叶期的突变一般发生在气温突变之后,但秋季物候期突变与其影响月份气温的突变并无关系。以上分析说明植物物候对气候变化响应比较敏感,通过分析气候和植物物候变化的规律,掌握气候对当地植物物候的可能影响,可为农业生产、生态环境监测和评估等提供理论依据。     

Temperature sensitivity of spring vegetation phenology correlates to within-spring warming speed over the Northern Hemisphere

The inter-annual shift of spring vegetation phenology relative to per unit change of preseason temperature, referred to as temperature sensitivity (days °C⁻¹), quantifies the response of spring phenology to temperature change. Temperature sensitivity was found to differ greatly among vegetation from different environmental conditions. Understanding the large-scale spatial pattern of temperature sensitivity and its underlying determinant will greatly improve our ability to predict spring phenology. In this study, we investigated the temperature sensitivity for natural ecosystems over the North Hemisphere (north of 30°N), based on the vegetation phenological date estimated from NDVI time-series data provided by the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) and the corresponding climate dataset. We found a notable longitudinal change pattern with considerable increases of temperature sensitivity from inlands to most coastal areas and a less obvious latitudinal pattern with larger sensitivity in low latitude area. This general spatial variation in temperature sensitivity is most strongly associated with the within-spring warming speed (WWS; r = 0.35, p < 0.01), a variable describing the increase speed of daily mean temperature during spring within a year, compared with other factors including the mean spring temperature, spring precipitation and mean winter temperature. These findings suggest that the same magnitude of warming will less affect spring vegetation phenology in regions with higher WWS, which might partially reflect plants’ adaption to local climate that prevents plants from frost risk caused by the advance of spring phenology. WWS accounts for the spatial variation in temperature sensitivity and should be taken into account in forecasting spring phenology and in assessing carbon cycle under the projected climate warming.