Agriculture rivals biomes in predicting global species richness

Species–area relationships (SARs) provide an avenue to model patterns of species richness and have recently been shown to vary substantially across regions of different climate, vegetation, and land cover. Given that a large proportion of the globe has been converted to agriculture, and considering the large variety in agricultural management practices, a key question is whether global SARs vary across gradients of agricultural intensity. We developed SARs for mammals that account for geographic variation in biomes, land cover and a range of land‐use intensity indicators representing inputs (e.g. fertilizer, irrigation), outputs (e.g. yields) and system‐level measures of intensity (e.g. human appropriation of net primary productivity – HANPP). We systematically compared the resulting SARs in terms of their predictive ability. Our global SAR with a universal slope was significantly improved by the inclusion of any one of the three variable types: biomes, land cover, and land‐use intensity. The latter, in the form of human appropriation of net primary productivity (HANPP), performed as well as biomes and land‐cover in predicting species richness. Other land‐use intensity indicators had a lower predictive ability. Our main finding that land‐use intensity performs as well as biomes and land cover in predicting species richness emphasizes that human factors are on a par with environmental factors in predicting global patterns of biodiversity. While our broad‐scale study cannot establish causality, human activity is known to drive species richness at a local scale, and our findings suggest that this may hold true at a global scale. The ability of land‐use intensity to explain variation in SARs at a global scale had not previously been assessed. Our study suggests that the inclusion of land‐use intensity in SAR models allows us to better predict and understand species richness patterns.     

Global distribution and bioclimatic characterization of alpine biomes

Although there is a general consensus on the distribution and ecological features of terrestrial biomes, the allocation of alpine ecosystems in the global biogeographic system is still unclear. Here, we delineate a global map of alpine areas above the treeline by modelling regional treeline elevation at 30 m resolution, using global forest cover data and quantile regression. We then used global datasets to 1) assess the climatic characteristics of alpine ecosystems using principal component analysis, 2) define bioclimatic groups by an optimized cluster analysis and 3) evaluate patterns of primary productivity based on the normalized difference vegetation index. As defined here, alpine biomes cover 3.56 Mkm² or 2.64% of land outside Antarctica. Despite temperature differences across latitude, these ecosystems converge below a sharp threshold of 5.9°C and towards the colder end of the global climatic space. Below that temperature threshold, alpine ecosystems are influenced by a latitudinal gradient of mean annual temperature and they are climatically differentiated by seasonality and continentality. This gradient delineates a climatic envelope of global alpine biomes around temperate, boreal and tundra biomes as defined in Whittaker's scheme. Although alpine biomes are similarly dominated by poorly vegetated areas, world ecoregions show strong differences in the productivity of their alpine belt irrespectively of major climate zones. These results suggest that vegetation structure and function of alpine ecosystems are driven by regional and local contingencies in addition to macroclimatic factors.     

Global patterns in the vulnerability of ecosystems to vegetation shifts due to climate change

Aim Climate change threatens to shift vegetation, disrupting ecosystems and damaging human well‐being. Field observations in boreal, temperate and tropical ecosystems have detected biome changes in the 20th century, yet a lack of spatial data on vulnerability hinders organizations that manage natural resources from identifying priority areas for adaptation measures. We explore potential methods to identify areas vulnerable to vegetation shifts and potential refugia. Location Global vegetation biomes. Methods We examined nine combinations of three sets of potential indicators of the vulnerability of ecosystems to biome change: (1) observed changes of 20th‐century climate, (2) projected 21st‐century vegetation changes using the MC1 dynamic global vegetation model under three Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) emissions scenarios, and (3) overlap of results from (1) and (2). Estimating probability density functions for climate observations and confidence levels for vegetation projections, we classified areas into vulnerability classes based on IPCC treatment of uncertainty. Results One‐tenth to one‐half of global land may be highly (confidence 0.80–0.95) to very highly (confidence ≥ 0.95) vulnerable. Temperate mixed forest, boreal conifer and tundra and alpine biomes show the highest vulnerability, often due to potential changes in wildfire. Tropical evergreen broadleaf forest and desert biomes show the lowest vulnerability. Main conclusions Spatial analyses of observed climate and projected vegetation indicate widespread vulnerability of ecosystems to biome change. A mismatch between vulnerability patterns and the geographic priorities of natural resource organizations suggests the need to adapt management plans. Approximately a billion people live in the areas classified as vulnerable.     

Gross changes in reconstructions of historic land cover/use for Europe between 1900 and 2010

Historic land‐cover/use change is important for studies on climate change, soil carbon, and biodiversity assessments. Available reconstructions focus on the net area difference between two time steps (net changes) instead of accounting for all area gains and losses (gross changes). This leads to a serious underestimation of land‐cover/use dynamics with impacts on the biogeochemical and environmental assessments based on these reconstructions. In this study, we quantified to what extent land‐cover/use reconstructions underestimate land‐cover/use changes in Europe for the 1900–2010 period by accounting for net changes only. We empirically analyzed available historic land‐change data, quantified their uncertainty, corrected for spatial‐temporal effects and identified underlying processes causing differences between gross and net changes. Gross changes varied for different land classes (largest for forest and grassland) and led to two to four times the amount of net changes. We applied the empirical results of gross change quantities in a spatially explicit reconstruction of historic land change to reconstruct gross changes for the EU27 plus Switzerland at 1 km spatial resolution between 1950 and 2010. In addition, the reconstruction was extended back to 1900 to explore the effects of accounting for gross changes on longer time scales. We created a land‐change reconstruction that only accounted for net changes for comparison. Our two model outputs were compared with five commonly used global reconstructions for the same period and area. In our reconstruction, gross changes led in total to a 56% area change (ca. 0.5% yr^?1) between 1900 and 2010 and cover twice the area of net changes. All global reconstructions used for comparison estimated fewer changes than our gross change reconstruction. Main land‐change processes were cropland/grassland dynamics and afforestation, and also deforestation and urbanization.     

Anthropogenic transformation of the biomes, 1700 to 2000

Aim To map and characterize anthropogenic transformation of the terrestrial biosphere before and during the Industrial Revolution, from 1700 to 2000. Location Global. Methods Anthropogenic biomes (anthromes) were mapped for 1700, 1800, 1900 and 2000 using a rule‐based anthrome classification model applied to gridded global data for human population density and land use. Anthropogenic transformation of terrestrial biomes was then characterized by map comparisons at century intervals. Results In 1700, nearly half of the terrestrial biosphere was wild, without human settlements or substantial land use. Most of the remainder was in a seminatural state (45%) having only minor use for agriculture and settlements. By 2000, the opposite was true, with the majority of the biosphere in agricultural and settled anthromes, less than 20% seminatural and only a quarter left wild. Anthropogenic transformation of the biosphere during the Industrial Revolution resulted about equally from land‐use expansion into wildlands and intensification of land use within seminatural anthromes. Transformation pathways differed strongly between biomes and regions, with some remaining mostly wild but with the majority almost completely transformed into rangelands, croplands and villages. In the process of transforming almost 39% of earth's total ice‐free surface into agricultural land and settlements, an additional 37% of global land without such use has become embedded within agricultural and settled anthromes. Main conclusions Between 1700 and 2000, the terrestrial biosphere made the critical transition from mostly wild to mostly anthropogenic, passing the 50% mark early in the 20th century. At present, and ever more in the future, the form and process of terrestrial ecosystems in most biomes will be predominantly anthropogenic, the product of land use and other direct human interactions with ecosystems. Ecological research and conservation efforts in all but a few biomes would benefit from a primary focus on the novel remnant, recovering and managed ecosystems embedded within used lands.     

Land-use intensification reduces functional redundancy and response diversity in plant communities

Ecosystem resilience depends on functional redundancy (the number of species contributing similarly to an ecosystem function) and response diversity (how functionally similar species respond differently to disturbance). Here, we explore how land-use change impacts these attributes in plant communities, using data from 18 land-use intensity gradients that represent five biomes and > 2800 species. We identify functional groups using multivariate analysis of plant traits which influence ecosystem processes. Functional redundancy is calculated as the species richness within each group, and response diversity as the multivariate within-group dispersion in response trait space, using traits that influence responses to disturbances. Meta-analysis across all datasets showed that land-use intensification significantly reduced both functional redundancy and response diversity, although specific relationships varied considerably among the different land-use gradients. These results indicate that intensified management of ecosystems for resource extraction can increase their vulnerability to future disturbances.
Ecology Letters (2010) 13: 76–86     

基于格网的南四湖流域土地利用碳排放与其生态系统服务价值时空关系分析

社会发展引起的土地利用变化对生态系统服务和碳排放有显著影响,探讨碳排放与生态系统服务价值（ESV）的时空关联规律,对促进区域低碳绿色发展提供重要的理论和实践借鉴。为揭示土地利用变化下碳排放与ESV的时空关系,以南四湖流域为研究对象,利用2000-2018年5期土地利用数据,采用土地转移矩阵和空间自相关等方法,并引入了碳源、碳汇、净碳排放量、碳排放强度和ESV强度作为研究变量,探索了ESV和碳排放的时空演变特征及其空间关联规律。研究结果表明：19年内流域内各地类间发生了程度不同的转移,其中耕地和建设用地是变化最大的类型;ESV随土地间的相互转化而波动变化,但整体上是增加的,水体面积的增加是导致其增加的决定性原因。ESV强度呈现"东高、西低,湖区不变"的分布特点,这与土地利用方式有关,受自然和社会等多因素影响;流域的碳汇量要远低于碳源量,净碳排放量呈稳定增长态势,其中建设用地的碳排放起着主导作用,因此建设用地在碳减排方面具有较大潜力。碳排放强度在研究期间发生了明显的时空变化,最大值从21.61 t/hm²增长到101.42 t/hm²,增长了4.69倍,工业化和城镇化是其增长的驱动因素;碳排放强度和ESV强度具有空间负相关性,局部聚集现象明显,以高低聚集区为主转变为以低低聚集区为主,与地类面积和建设用地的碳排放系数有关;低高聚集区的范围和分布变化不大。总之,该流域在整体上面临着ESV和碳排放增加的趋势,根据它们之间的空间关联性,流域应采取有效措施来防止碳排放快速增长对周围区域生态环境带来负面影响,并构建生态良好的循环系统,以实现流域低碳经济。     

Consistent trade-offs in ecosystem services between land covers with different production intensities

Sustaining multiple ecosystem services across a landscape requires an understanding of how consistently services are shaped by different categories of land uses. Yet, this understanding is generally constrained by the availability of fine-resolution data for multiple services across large areas and the spatial variability of land-use effects on services. We systematically surveyed published literature for New Zealand (1970–2015) to quantify the supply of 17 non-production services across 25 land covers (as a proxy for land use). We found a consistent trade-off in the services supplied by anthropogenic land covers with a high production intensity (e.g. cropping) versus those with extensive or no production. By contrast, forest cover was not associated with any distinct patterns of service supply. By drawing on existing research findings, we reveal complementarity and redundancy (potentially influencing resilience) in service supply from different land covers. This will guide practitioners in shaping land systems that sustainably support human well-being.     

Projected Changes in Terrestrial Carbon Storage in Europe under Climate and Land-use Change, 1990–2100

Changes in climate and land use, caused by socio-economic changes, greenhouse gas emissions, agricultural policies and other factors, are known to affect both natural and managed ecosystems, and will likely impact on the European terrestrial carbon balance during the coming decades. This study presents a comprehensive European Union wide (EU15 plus Norway and Switzerland, EU*) assessment of potential future changes in terrestrial carbon storage considering these effects based on four illustrative IPCC-SRES storylines (A1FI, A2, B1, B2). A process-based land vegetation model (LPJ-DGVM), adapted to include a generic representation of managed ecosystems, is forced with changing fields of land-use patterns from 1901 to 2100 to assess the effect of land-use and cover changes on the terrestrial carbon balance of Europe. The uncertainty in the future carbon balance associated with the choice of a climate change scenario is assessed by forcing LPJ-DGVM with output from four different climate models (GCMs: CGCM2, CSIRO2, HadCM3, PCM2) for the same SRES storyline. Decrease in agricultural areas and afforestation leads to simulated carbon sequestration for all land-use change scenarios with an average net uptake of 17–38 Tg C/year between 1990 and 2100, corresponding to 1.9–2.9% of the EU*s CO₂ emissions over the same period. Soil carbon losses resulting from climate warming reduce or even offset carbon sequestration resulting from growth enhancement induced by climate change and increasing atmospheric CO₂ concentrations in the second half of the twenty-first century. Differences in future climate change projections among GCMs are the main cause for uncertainty in the cumulative European terrestrial carbon uptake of 4.4–10.1 Pg C between 1990 and 2100.     

A Land System representation for global assessments and land‐use modeling

Current global scale land‐change models used for integrated assessments and climate modeling are based on classifications of land cover. However, land‐use management intensity and livestock keeping are also important aspects of land use, and are an integrated part of land systems. This article aims to classify, map, and to characterize Land Systems (LS) at a global scale and analyze the spatial determinants of these systems. Besides proposing such a classification, the article tests if global assessments can be based on globally uniform allocation rules. Land cover, livestock, and agricultural intensity data are used to map LS using a hierarchical classification method. Logistic regressions are used to analyze variation in spatial determinants of LS. The analysis of the spatial determinants of LS indicates strong associations between LS and a range of socioeconomic and biophysical indicators of human‐environment interactions. The set of identified spatial determinants of a LS differs among regions and scales, especially for (mosaic) cropland systems, grassland systems with livestock, and settlements. (Semi‐)Natural LS have more similar spatial determinants across regions and scales. Using LS in global models is expected to result in a more accurate representation of land use capturing important aspects of land systems and land architecture: the variation in land cover and the link between land‐use intensity and landscape composition. Because the set of most important spatial determinants of LS varies among regions and scales, land‐change models that include the human drivers of land change are best parameterized at sub‐global level, where similar biophysical, socioeconomic and cultural conditions prevail in the specific regions.     

Projected impacts of climate and land-use change on the global diversity of birds

Over the past few decades, land-use and climate change have led to substantial range contractions and species extinctions. Even more dramatic changes to global land cover are projected for this century. We used the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment scenarios to evaluate the exposure of all 8,750 land bird species to projected land-cover changes due to climate and land-use change. For this first baseline assessment, we assumed stationary geographic ranges that may overestimate actual losses in geographic range. Even under environmentally benign scenarios, at least 400 species are projected to suffer >50% range reductions by the year 2050 (over 900 by the year 2100). Although expected climate change effects at high latitudes are significant, species most at risk are predominantly narrow-ranged and endemic to the tropics, where projected range contractions are driven by anthropogenic land conversions. Most of these species are currently not recognized as imperiled. The causes, magnitude and geographic patterns of potential range loss vary across socioeconomic scenarios, but all scenarios (even the most environmentally benign ones) result in large declines of many species. Whereas climate change will severely affect biodiversity, in the near future, land-use change in tropical countries may lead to yet greater species loss. A vastly expanded reserve network in the tropics, coupled with more ambitious goals to reduce climate change, will be needed to minimize global extinctions.     

Drivers of ecosystem change and their impacts on human well-being in Lake Victoria basin

To offer an increased understanding of the spatial patterns, temporal, social and physical predictors of the conversion and transformations of land use in Lake Victoria basin, an assessment of proximate and underlying forces is presented. This study discusses key theoretical underpinnings for the manifold linkages existing between selected drivers of land-use changes around the basin and their consequences on human well-being. Using a meta-analytical research design, the paper analyses ecosystems level cases of the causes of land use and cover changes in the basin, to determine any spatio-temporal or institutional patterns and dynamics. A suite of recurrent core variables has been identified to influence land use and cover changes in the basin. The most prominent of these at the underlying category are climatic factors, economic factors, institutions, national and regional policies, population growth and other remote influences. At the proximate level, these factors drive cropland expansion, overgrazing, infrastructure extension and rates of land degradation. These are supported by empirical evidence from the basin. This assessment is crucial for appropriate local and transboundary policy interventions, which have to be fine-tuned to the locale-specific dynamic patterns associated with the inherent ecosystems changes.     

Assessing the effects of land-use change on plant traits, communities and ecosystem functioning in grasslands: a standardized methodology and lessons from an application to 11 European sites

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: A standardized methodology to assess the impacts of land-use changes on vegetation and ecosystem functioning is presented. It assumes that species traits are central to these impacts, and is designed to be applicable in different historical, climatic contexts and local settings. Preliminary results are presented to show its applicability. METHODS: Eleven sites, representative of various types of land-use changes occurring in marginal agro-ecosystems across Europe and Israel, were selected. Climatic data were obtained at the site level; soil data, disturbance and nutrition indices were described at the plot level within sites. Sixteen traits describing plant stature, leaf characteristics and reproductive phase were recorded on the most abundant species of each treatment. These data were combined with species abundance to calculate trait values weighed by the abundance of species in the communities. The ecosystem properties selected were components of above-ground net primary productivity and decomposition of litter. KEY RESULTS: The wide variety of land-use systems that characterize marginal landscapes across Europe was reflected by the different disturbance indices, and were also reflected in soil and/or nutrient availability gradients. The trait toolkit allowed us to describe adequately the functional response of vegetation to land-use changes, but we suggest that some traits (vegetative plant height, stem dry matter content) should be omitted in studies involving mainly herbaceous species. Using the example of the relationship between leaf dry matter content and above-ground dead material, we demonstrate how the data collected may be used to analyse direct effects of climate and land use on ecosystem properties vs. indirect effects via changes in plant traits. CONCLUSIONS: This work shows the applicability of a set of protocols that can be widely applied to assess the impacts of global change drivers on species, communities and ecosystems.     

Net changes in regional woody vegetation cover and carbon storage in Texas Drylands, 1937–1999

Although local increases in woody plant cover have been documented in arid and semiarid ecosystems worldwide, there have been few long‐term, large‐scale analyses of changes in woody plant cover and aboveground carbon (C) stocks. We used historical aerial photography, contemporary Landsat satellite data, field observations, and image analysis techniques to assess spatially specific changes in woody vegetation cover and aboveground C stocks between 1937 and 1999 in a 400‐km² region of northern Texas, USA. Changes in land cover were then related to topo‐edaphic setting and historical land‐use practices. Mechanical or chemical brush management occurred over much of the region in the 1940–1950s. Rangelands not targeted for brush management experienced woody cover increases of up to 500% in 63 years. Areas managed with herbicides, mechanical treatments or fire exhibited a wide range of woody cover changes relative to 1937 (?75% to + 280%), depending on soil type and time since last management action. At the integrated regional scale, there was a net 30% increase in woody plant cover over the 63‐year period. Regional increases were greatest in riparian corridors (33%) and shallow clay uplands (26%) and least on upland clay loams (15%). Allometric relationships between canopy cover and aboveground biomass were used to estimate net aboveground C storage changes in upland (nonriparian) portions of regional landscapes. Carbon stocks increased from 380 g C m^?2 in 1937 to 500 g C m^?2 in 1999, a 32% net increase across the 400 km² region over the 63‐year period. These plant C storage change estimates are highly conservative in that they did not include the substantial increases in woody plant cover observed within riparian landscape elements. Results are discussed in terms of implications for ‘carbon accounting’ and the global C cycle.     

Using quantitative pollen-based land-cover estimations and a spatial CA_Markov model to reconstruct the development of cultural landscape at Rõuge,South Estonia

Quantitative pollen-based land-cover reconstruction covering the last 4,000 years was performed using transformation coefficients derived from a modern pollen land-cover database and a palynological record from an annually laminated sequence in Lake Rõuge Tõugjärv. Proportions of four land-cover classes characteristic of cultural landscape were reconstructed: habitation area, arable land, grassland and woodland. A land-use change model using CA_Markov analysis was applied for spatial reconstructions for seven periods: 600 b.c., a.d. 300, 800, 1200, 1700, 1870 and 1940. Historical maps from a.d. 1684, 1870–1899 and 1935 were used for calibration of quantitative estimates and to validate spatial reconstructions. The accuracy of the estimates depends on the availability of modern analogues and differs among land-cover classes, being highest for classes with directly connectable pollen indicator types (arable land, forest) and lowest for settlement areas. Spatial reconstructions produced by the CA_Markov land-cover change model show moderate accordance with historical data. However, the large uncertainties in land-cover input data must be considered in the evaluation of the KIA results of the spatial model. Permanent low intensity, rural land-use in the Rõuge area started at the beginning of the Bronze Age (c. 1800 b.c.). The major increase in the extent of rural land-use took place at the beginning of the 13th century and culminated during the 19th century when c. 90% of the RSAP of Rõuge Tõugjärv was open. During the last century, rural land-use decreased constantly.     

Assessing large area forest cover products derived from the same imaging source across Victoria,Australia

Forest cover products are an essential tool for land managers and policy makers. They are used at a variety of spatial scales to inform decision‐making and policy across a range of ecosystem drivers and services. This article compares three forest cover products (FCP), all of which were created using Landsat satellite imagery, but using different methodologies and covering different spatial extents that range from global to state. It also explores their use and utility across the state of Victoria, Australia. It asks the question, how interchangeable are the forest cover maps? FCP are also validated against a very high‐resolution reference data set. Overall accuracy was around 89% for the state and national FCP, and 84% for the global FCP. The global map produced the lowest estimate of total forest cover, while estimates obtained by the national and state FCP were similar across the study area. Spatially, differences, however, were apparent. The national forest cover map obtained higher estimates across most of Victoria except in the most arid region which is dominated by low open woodland. While the national and global scale forest cover maps were found to have good diagnostic ability for large area assessment and reporting, their use for land management is not optimal and can lead to gross error.     

Assessing the influence of historic net and gross land changes on the carbon fluxes of Europe

Legacy effects of land cover/use on carbon fluxes require considering both present and past land cover/use change dynamics. To assess past land use dynamics, model‐based reconstructions of historic land cover/use are needed. Most historic reconstructions consider only the net area difference between two time steps (net changes) instead of accounting for all area gains and losses (gross changes). Studies about the impact of gross and net land change accounting methods on the carbon balance are still lacking. In this study, we assessed historic changes in carbon in soils for five land cover/use types and of carbon in above‐ground biomass of forests. The assessment focused on Europe for the period 1950 to 2010 with decadal time steps at 1‐km spatial resolution using a bookkeeping approach. To assess the implications of gross land change data, we also used net land changes for comparison. Main contributors to carbon sequestration between 1950 and 2010 were afforestation and cropland abandonment leading to 14.6 PgC sequestered carbon (of which 7.6 PgC was in forest biomass). Sequestration was highest for old‐growth forest areas. A sequestration dip was reached during the 1970s due to changes in forest management practices. Main contributors to carbon emissions were deforestation (1.7 PgC) and stable cropland areas on peaty soils (0.8 PgC). In total, net fluxes summed up to 203 TgC yr^?1 (98 TgC yr^?1 in forest biomass and 105 TgC yr^?1 in soils). For areas that were subject to land changes in both reconstructions (35% of total area), the differences in carbon fluxes were about 68%. Overall for Europe the difference between accounting for either gross or net land changes led to 7% difference (up to 11% per decade) in carbon fluxes with systematically higher fluxes for gross land change data.     

Land Use Change in India (1700–2000) as Examined through the Lens of Human Appropriation of Net Primary Productivity

Land use caused by human socioeconomic activities is a driver of change in the global environment. To understand and quantify land‐use change on Earth's natural systems, interdisciplinary approaches linking biophysical and socioeconomic parameters are required. One approach to understand the degree of terrestrial colonization of the biosphere is using the human appropriation of net primary productivity (HANPP). HANPP is defined as the difference between the net primary productivity (NPP) of potential vegetation and the actual NPP for a given area of land. Here, we use HANPP as a lens to examine land‐use change in India from 1700 to 2007 using a spatially explicit data set that extends over this period. We also used the nongridded, Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) data set to calculate HANPP for India from 1961 to 2012 and compared our results. The average potential NPP for India was estimated to be 664 grams of carbon per square meter per year (g C/m²/year). Between 1700 and 2012, the fraction of pastureland and cropland increased from 20% to almost 60%. HANPP as a fraction of the potential NPP increased from 29% to 73% over this period. Calculations of HANPP using the FAO data set yielded an increase from 600 g C/m² to just over 700 g C/m² between 1961 and 2012. We also calculated the embodied HANPP of India by considering imports and exports, but the difference between the two is negligible in comparison to the HANPP of India. We further examined the variation of HANPP with socioeconomic parameters such as the Human Development Index (HDI) and population density. There was a roughly negative trend of HANPP with HDI. HANPP roughly increases with population density and then plateaus above a population density of roughly 200 persons per square kilometer.     

Natural and socioeconomic determinants of the embodied human appropriation of net primary production and its relation to other resource use indicators

Indicators of resource use such as material and energy flow accounts, emission data and the ecological footprint inform societies about their performance by evaluating resource use efficiency and the effectiveness of sustainability policies. The human appropriation of net primary production (HANPP) is an indicator of land-use intensity on each nation's territory used in research as well as in environmental reports. ‘Embodied HANPP’ (eHANPP) measures the HANPP anywhere on earth resulting from a nation's domestic biomass consumption. The objectives of this article are (i) to study the relation between eHANPP and other resource use indicators and (ii) to analyse socioeconomic and natural determinants of global eHANPP patterns in the year 2000. We discuss a statistical analysis of >140 countries aiming to better understand these relationships. We found that indicators of material and energy throughput, fossil-energy related CO₂ emissions as well as the ecological footprint are highly correlated with each other as well as with GDP, while eHANPP is neither correlated with other resource use indicators nor with GDP, despite a strong correlation between final biomass consumption and GDP. This can be explained by improvements in agricultural efficiency associated with GDP growth. Only about half of the variation in eHANPP can be explained by differences in national land-use systems, suggesting a considerable influence of trade on eHANPP patterns. eHANPP related with biomass trade can largely be explained by differences in natural endowment, in particular the availability of productive area. We conclude that eHANPP can deliver important complimentary information to indicators that primarily monitor socioeconomic metabolism.     

Climatic thresholds shape northern high‐latitude fire regimes and imply vulnerability to future climate change

Boreal forests and arctic tundra cover 33% of global land area and store an estimated 50% of total soil carbon. Because wildfire is a key driver of terrestrial carbon cycling, increasing fire activity in these ecosystems would likely have global implications. To anticipate potential spatiotemporal variability in fire‐regime shifts, we modeled the spatially explicit 30‐yr probability of fire occurrence as a function of climate and landscape features (i.e. vegetation and topography) across Alaska. Boosted regression tree (BRT) models captured the spatial distribution of fire across boreal forest and tundra ecoregions (AUC from 0.63–0.78 and Pearson correlations between predicted and observed data from 0.54–0.71), highlighting summer temperature and annual moisture availability as the most influential controls of historical fire regimes. Modeled fire–climate relationships revealed distinct thresholds to fire occurrence, with a nonlinear increase in the probability of fire above an average July temperature of 13.4°C and below an annual moisture availability (i.e. P‐PET) of approximately 150 mm. To anticipate potential fire‐regime responses to 21st‐century climate change, we informed our BRTs with Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 climate projections under the RCP 6.0 scenario. Based on these projected climatic changes alone (i.e. not accounting for potential changes in vegetation), our results suggest an increasing probability of wildfire in Alaskan boreal forest and tundra ecosystems, but of varying magnitude across space and throughout the 21st century. Regions with historically low flammability, including tundra and the forest–tundra boundary, are particularly vulnerable to climatically induced changes in fire activity, with up to a fourfold increase in the 30‐yr probability of fire occurrence by 2100. Our results underscore the climatic potential for novel fire regimes to develop in these ecosystems, relative to the past 6000–35 000 yr, and spatial variability in the vulnerability of wildfire regimes and associated ecological processes to 21st‐century climate change.