Impact of a drier Early-Mid-Holocene climate upon Amazonian forests

This paper uses a palaeoecological approach to examine the impact of drier climatic conditions of the Early-Mid-Holocene (ca 8000-4000 years ago) upon Amazonia's forests and their fire regimes. Palaeovegetation (pollen data) and palaeofire (charcoal) records are synthesized from 20 sites within the present tropical forest biome, and the underlying causes of any emergent patterns or changes are explored by reference to independent palaeoclimate data and present-day patterns of precipitation, forest cover and fire activity across Amazonia. During the Early-Mid-Holocene, Andean cloud forest taxa were replaced by lowland tree taxa as the cloud base rose while lowland ecotonal areas, which are presently covered by evergreen rainforest, were instead dominated by savannahs and/or semi-deciduous dry forests. Elsewhere in the Amazon Basin there is considerable spatial and temporal variation in patterns of vegetation disturbance and fire, which probably reflects the complex heterogeneous patterns in precipitation and seasonality across the basin, and the interactions between climate change, drought- and fire susceptibility of the forests, and Palaeo-Indian land use. Our analysis shows that the forest biome in most parts of Amazonia appears to have been remarkably resilient to climatic conditions significantly drier than those of today, despite widespread evidence of forest burning. Only in ecotonal areas is there evidence of biome replacement in the Holocene. From this palaeoecological perspective, we argue against the Amazon forest 'dieback' scenario simulated for the future.     

Ecosystem state shifts during long‐term development of an Amazonian peatland

The most carbon (C)‐dense ecosystems of Amazonia are areas characterized by the presence of peatlands. However, Amazonian peatland ecosystems are poorly understood and are threatened by human activities. Here, we present an investigation into long‐term ecohydrological controls on C accumulation in an Amazonian peat dome. This site is the oldest peatland yet discovered in Amazonia (peat initiation ca. 8.9 ka BP), and developed in three stages: (i) peat initiated in an abandoned river channel with open water and aquatic plants; (ii) inundated forest swamp; and (iii) raised peat dome (since ca. 3.9 ka BP). Local burning occurred at least three times in the past 4,500 years. Two phases of particularly rapid C accumulation (ca. 6.6–6.1 and ca. 4.9–3.9 ka BP), potentially resulting from increased net primary productivity, were seemingly driven by drier conditions associated with widespread drought events. The association of drought phases with major ecosystem state shifts (open water wetland–forest swamp–peat dome) suggests a potential climatic control on the developmental trajectory of this tropical peatland. A third drought phase centred on ca. 1.8–1.1 ka BP led to markedly reduced C accumulation and potentially a hiatus during the peat dome stage. Our results suggest that future droughts may lead to phases of rapid C accumulation in some inundated tropical peat swamps, although this can lead ultimately to a shift to ombrotrophy and a subsequent return to slower C accumulation. Conversely, in ombrotrophic peat domes, droughts may lead to reduced C accumulation or even net loss of peat. Increased surface wetness at our site in recent decades may reflect a shift towards a wetter climate in western Amazonia. Amazonian peatlands represent important carbon stores and habitats, and are important archives of past climatic and ecological information. They should form key foci for conservation efforts.     

Replicated throughfall exclusion experiment in an Indonesian perhumid rainforest: wood production,litter fall and fine root growth under simulated drought

Climate change scenarios predict increases in the frequency and duration of ENSO‐related droughts for parts of South‐East Asia until the end of this century exposing the remaining rainforests to increasing drought risk. A pan‐tropical review of recorded drought‐related tree mortalities in more than 100 monitoring plots before, during and after drought events suggested a higher drought‐vulnerability of trees in South‐East Asian than in Amazonian forests. Here, we present the results of a replicated (n = 3 plots) throughfall exclusion experiment in a perhumid tropical rainforest in Sulawesi, Indonesia. In this first large‐scale roof experiment outside semihumid eastern Amazonia, 60% of the throughfall was displaced during the first 8 months and 80% during the subsequent 17 months, exposing the forest to severe soil desiccation for about 17 months. In the experiment's second year, wood production decreased on average by 40% with largely different responses of the tree families (ranging from −100 to +100% change). Most sensitive were trees with high radial growth rates under moist conditions. In contrast, tree height was only a secondary factor and wood specific gravity had no influence on growth sensitivity. Fine root biomass was reduced by 35% after 25 months of soil desiccation while fine root necromass increased by 250% indicating elevated fine root mortality. Cumulative aboveground litter production was not significantly reduced in this period. The trees from this Indonesian perhumid rainforest revealed similar responses of wood and litter production and root dynamics as those in two semihumid Amazonian forests subjected to experimental drought. We conclude that trees from paleo‐ or neotropical forests growing in semihumid or perhumid climates may not differ systematically in their growth sensitivity and vitality under sublethal drought stress. Drought vulnerability may depend more on stem cambial activity in moist periods than on tree height or wood specific gravity.     

Stand dynamics modulate water cycling and mortality risk in droughted tropical forest

Transpiration from the Amazon rainforest generates an essential water source at a global and local scale. However, changes in rainforest function with climate change can disrupt this process, causing significant reductions in precipitation across Amazonia, and potentially at a global scale. We report the only study of forest transpiration following a long‐term (>10 year) experimental drought treatment in Amazonian forest. After 15 years of receiving half the normal rainfall, drought‐related tree mortality caused total forest transpiration to decrease by 30%. However, the surviving droughted trees maintained or increased transpiration because of reduced competition for water and increased light availability, which is consistent with increased growth rates. Consequently, the amount of water supplied as rainfall reaching the soil and directly recycled as transpiration increased to 100%. This value was 25% greater than for adjacent nondroughted forest. If these drought conditions were accompanied by a modest increase in temperature (e.g., 1.5°C), water demand would exceed supply, making the forest more prone to increased tree mortality.     

Response of an old‐growth tropical rainforest to transient high temperature and drought

Tropical rainforests have experienced episodes of severe heat and drought in recent decades, and climate models project a warmer and potentially drier tropical climate over this century. However, likely responses of tropical rainforests are poorly understood due to a lack of frequent long‐term measurements of forest structure and dynamics. We analyzed a 12‐year record (1999–2010) of 47 817 annual measurements of canopy height to characterize the response of an old‐growth Neotropical rainforest to the severe heat and drought associated with the 1997–1998 El Niño. Well‐drained soils on slopes and plateaus experienced a threefold increase in the fraction of the landscape in gaps (≤2 m) and a reduction in the fraction in high canopy (>15 m) causing distributions of canopy height to depart from equilibrium for a period of 2–3 years. In contrast, forests on low‐lying alluvial terraces remained in equilibrium and were nearly half as likely to experience upper canopy (>15 m) disturbance over the 12 years of observation. Variation in forest response across topographic positions suggests that tropical rainforests are more sensitive to moisture deficits than high temperature and that topography likely structures landscape‐level variation in the severity of drought impacts.     

Biogeography and evolution of Amazonian triatomines (Heteroptera: Reduviidae): implications for Chagas disease surveillance in humid forest ecoregions

An ecological-evolutionary classification of Amazonian triatomines is proposed based on a revision of their main contemporary biogeographical patterns. Truly Amazonian triatomines include the Rhodniini, the Cavernicolini, and perhaps Eratyrus and some Bolboderini. The tribe Rhodniini comprises two major lineages (pictipes and robustus). The former gave rise to trans-Andean (pallescens) and Amazonian (pictipes) species groups, while the latter diversified within Amazonia (robustus group) and radiated to neighbouring ecoregions (Orinoco, Cerrado-Caatinga-Chaco, and Atlantic Forest). Three widely distributed Panstrongylus species probably occupied Amazonia secondarily, while a few Triatoma species include Amazonian populations that occur only in the fringes of the region. T. maculata probably represents a vicariant subset isolated from its parental lineage in the Caatinga-Cerrado system when moist forests closed a dry trans-Amazonian corridor. These diverse Amazonian triatomines display different degrees of synanthropism, defining a behavioural gradient from household invasion by adult triatomines to the stable colonisation of artificial structures. Anthropogenic ecological disturbance (driven by deforestation) is probably crucial in the onset of the process, but the fact that only a small fraction of species effectively colonises artificial environments suggests a role for evolution at the end of the gradient. Domestic infestation foci are restricted to drier subregions within Amazonia; thus, populations adapted to extremely humid rainforest microclimates may have limited chances of successfully colonising the slightly drier artificial microenvironments. These observations suggest several research avenues, from the use of climate data to map risk areas to the assessment of the synanthropic potential of individual vector species.     

Long-term drought effects on the thermal sensitivity of Amazon forest trees

The continued functioning of tropical forests under climate change depends on their resilience to drought and heat. However, there is little understanding of how tropical forests will respond to combinations of these stresses, and no field studies to date have explicitly evaluated whether sustained drought alters sensitivity to temperature. We measured the temperature response of net photosynthesis, foliar respiration and the maximum quantum efficiency of photosystem II (F_v/F_m) of eight hyper-dominant Amazonian tree species at the world's longest-running tropical forest drought experiment, to investigate the effect of drought on forest thermal sensitivity. Despite a 0.6°C–2°C increase in canopy air temperatures following long-term drought, no change in overall thermal sensitivity of net photosynthesis or respiration was observed. However, photosystem II tolerance to extreme-heat damage (T₅₀) was reduced from 50.0 ± 0.3°C to 48.5 ± 0.3°C under drought. Our results suggest that long-term reductions in precipitation, as projected across much of Amazonia by climate models, are unlikely to greatly alter the response of tropical forests to rising mean temperatures but may increase the risk of leaf thermal damage during heatwaves.     

First macrofossil evidence of a pre-Holocene thorny bamboo cf. Guadua (Poaceae: Bambusoideae: Bambuseae: Guaduinae) in south-western Amazonia (Madre de Dios — Peru)

Three fossil stem fragments collected from the banks of the Madre de Dios river in the south-western Peruvian Amazon are described and identified as Guadua sp. from their anatomical structure and gross morphology. These fossil monocots are stem fragments corresponding to a nodal region with i) circular sheath scars, ii) monopodial ramifications, iii) thorny or spiny buds or complex branches, and iv) a hollow stem structure. According to C¹⁴ radiodating and to their stratigraphic position, these fossils are older than 45,790 yr BP (Late Pleistocene) and younger than 3.12 ± 0.02 My (Late Pliocene) indicating that Guadua was present in south-western Amazonia before the first human occurrence in America, and before the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). Since little is known regarding the origin of Guadua Kunth, a bamboo native to Central and South America and questions remain regarding the history of Guadua-dominated forests within the Amazonian lowland tropical rainforest, this work suggests an alternate interpretation for the Poaceae-rich palynological assemblages of Amazonia and may contribute to an understanding of the evolutionary history and present diversity of the vegetation of Amazonia.     

Contrasting simulated past and future responses of the Amazonian forest to atmospheric change

Modelling simulations of palaeoclimate and past vegetation form and function can contribute to global change research by constraining predictions of potential earth system responses to future warming, and by providing useful insights into the ecophysiological tolerances and threshold responses of plants to varying degrees of atmospheric change. We contrasted HadCM3LC simulations of Amazonian forest at the last glacial maximum (LGM; 21 kyr ago) and a Younger Dryas-like period (13-12 kyr ago) with predicted responses of future warming to provide estimates of the climatic limits under which the Amazon forest remains relatively stable. Our simulations indicate that despite lower atmospheric CO2 concentrations and increased aridity during the LGM, Amazonia remains mostly forested, and that the cooling climate of the Younger Dryas-like period in fact causes a trend toward increased above-ground carbon balance relative to today. The vegetation feedbacks responsible for maintaining forest integrity in past climates (i.e. decreased evapotranspiration and reduced plant respiration) cannot be maintained into the future. Although elevated atmospheric CO2 contributes to a positive enhancement of plant carbon and water balance, decreased stomatal conductance and increased plant and soil respiration cause a positive feedback that amplifies localized drying and climate warming. We speculate that the Amazonian forest is currently near its critical resiliency threshold, and that even minor climate warming may be sufficient to promote deleterious feedbacks on forest integrity.     

Long-term forest-savannah dynamics in the Bolivian Amazon: implications for conservation

The aim of this paper is to evaluate the respective roles of past changes in climate, geomorphology and human activities in shaping the present-day forest-savannah mosaic of the Bolivian Amazon, and consider how this palaeoecological perspective may help inform conservation strategies for the future. To this end, we review a suite of palaeoecological and archaeological data from two distinct forest-savannah environments in lowland Bolivia: Noel Kempff Mercado National Park (NKMNP) on the Precambrian Shield and the 'Llanos de Moxos' in the Beni basin. We show that they contain markedly contrasting legacies of past climatic, geomorphic and anthropogenic influences between the last glacial period and the Spanish Conquest. In NKMNP, increasing precipitation caused evergreen rainforest expansion, at the expense of semi-deciduous dry forest and savannahs, over the last three millennia. In contrast, pre-Hispanic indigenous cultures were instrumental in facilitating recent forest expansion in the Llanos de Moxos by building a vast network of earthworks. Insights from Mid-Holocene palaeodata, together with ecological observations and modelling studies, suggest that there will be progressive replacement of rainforest by dry forest and savannah in NKMNP over the twenty-first century in response to the increased drought predicted by general circulation models. Protection of the latitudinal landscape corridors may be needed to facilitate these future species reassortments. However, devising appropriate conservation strategies for the Llanos de Moxos will be more difficult due to its complex legacy of Palaeo-Indian impact. Without fully understanding the degree to which its current biota has been influenced by past native cultures, the type and intensity of human land use appropriate for this landscape in the future will be difficult to ascertain.     

Climate and CO2 controls on global vegetation distribution at the last glacial maximum: analysis based on palaeovegetation data, biome modelling and palaeoclimate simulations

The global vegetation response to climate and atmospheric CO₂ changes between the last glacial maximum and recent times is examined using an equilibrium vegetation model (BIOME4), driven by output from 17 climate simulations from the Palaeoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project. Features common to all of the simulations include expansion of treeless vegetation in high northern latitudes; southward displacement and fragmentation of boreal and temperate forests; and expansion of drought‐tolerant biomes in the tropics. These features are broadly consistent with pollen‐based reconstructions of vegetation distribution at the last glacial maximum. Glacial vegetation in high latitudes reflects cold and dry conditions due to the low CO₂ concentration and the presence of large continental ice sheets. The extent of drought‐tolerant vegetation in tropical and subtropical latitudes reflects a generally drier low‐latitude climate. Comparisons of the observations with BIOME4 simulations, with and without consideration of the direct physiological effect of CO₂ concentration on C₃ photosynthesis, suggest an important additional role of low CO₂ concentration in restricting the extent of forests, especially in the tropics. Global forest cover was overestimated by all models when climate change alone was used to drive BIOME4, and estimated more accurately when physiological effects of CO₂ concentration were included. This result suggests that both CO₂ effects and climate effects were important in determining glacial‐interglacial changes in vegetation. More realistic simulations of glacial vegetation and climate will need to take into account the feedback effects of these structural and physiological changes on the climate.     

Dynamics of North Patagonian rainforests from fine‐resolution pollen,charcoal and tree‐ring analysis,Chonos Archipelago,Southern Chile

Abstract Fine‐resolution palaeoecological and dendrochronological methods were used to investigate the impacts of climate change, and natural and anthropogenic disturbances on vegetation in the North Patagonian rainforest of southern Chile at decadal to century timescales during the late Holocene. A lake sediment mud–water interface core was collected from the northern Chonos Archipelago and analysed for pollen and charcoal. Dendrochronological analysis of tree cores collected from stands of Pilgerodendron uviferum close to the lake site was incorporated into the study. The combined analysis showed that the present mosaic of vegetation types in this region is a function of environmental changes across a range of timescales: millennial climate change, more recent natural and anthropogenic disturbances, and possibly short‐term climatic variations. Of particular interest is the spatiotemporal distribution of Pilgerodendron uviferum dieback/burning in the Chonos Archipelago region.     

A complete pollen record of the last 230 ka from Lynch's Crater, north-eastern Australia

Recent drilling eventually reached to the base of the sediments of Lynch's Crater on the Atherton Tableland within the humid tropics of north-eastern Australia. This paper incorporates results from the sequence extension into a complete record from the site, much of which has only been presented previously in summary form. A more certain chronology for the record is provided by recent radiocarbon dating on the topmost sediments and the application of time series analysis to the whole sequence. This suggests that the vegetation and climate are forced essentially by northern hemisphere insolation and ice volume, probably operating through sea level and sea surface temperature changes. The extended record is considered to cover the last 230,000 years and the pattern of complex rainforest expansion during wetter interglacial periods and its replacement by drier rainforest and sclerophyll vegetation during drier glacials is maintained. Superimposed on this cyclicity are trends resulting from both the evolution of the lake basin as well as external influences that include climate and, within the last 45,000 years, people.     

After more than a decade of soil moisture deficit,tropical rainforest trees maintain photosynthetic capacity,despite increased leaf respiration

Determining climate change feedbacks from tropical rainforests requires an understanding of how carbon gain through photosynthesis and loss through respiration will be altered. One of the key changes that tropical rainforests may experience under future climate change scenarios is reduced soil moisture availability. In this study we examine if and how both leaf photosynthesis and leaf dark respiration acclimate following more than 12 years of experimental soil moisture deficit, via a through‐fall exclusion experiment (TFE) in an eastern Amazonian rainforest. We find that experimentally drought‐stressed trees and taxa maintain the same maximum leaf photosynthetic capacity as trees in corresponding control forest, independent of their susceptibility to drought‐induced mortality. We hypothesize that photosynthetic capacity is maintained across all treatments and taxa to take advantage of short‐lived periods of high moisture availability, when stomatal conductance (g_s) and photosynthesis can increase rapidly, potentially compensating for reduced assimilate supply at other times. Average leaf dark respiration (R_d) was elevated in the TFE‐treated forest trees relative to the control by 28.2 ± 2.8% (mean ± one standard error). This mean R_d value was dominated by a 48.5 ± 3.6% increase in the R_d of drought‐sensitive taxa, and likely reflects the need for additional metabolic support required for stress‐related repair, and hydraulic or osmotic maintenance processes. Following soil moisture deficit that is maintained for several years, our data suggest that changes in respiration drive greater shifts in the canopy carbon balance, than changes in photosynthetic capacity.     

Amazonia trees have limited capacity to acclimate plant hydraulic properties in response to long‐term drought

The fate of tropical forests under future climate change is dependent on the capacity of their trees to adjust to drier conditions. The capacity of trees to withstand drought is likely to be determined by traits associated with their hydraulic systems. However, data on whether tropical trees can adjust hydraulic traits when experiencing drought remain rare. We measured plant hydraulic traits (e.g. hydraulic conductivity and embolism resistance) and plant hydraulic system status (e.g. leaf water potential, native embolism and safety margin) on >150 trees from 12 genera (36 species) and spanning a stem size range from 14 to 68 cm diameter at breast height at the world's only long‐running tropical forest drought experiment. Hydraulic traits showed no adjustment following 15 years of experimentally imposed moisture deficit. This failure to adjust resulted in these drought‐stressed trees experiencing significantly lower leaf water potentials, and higher, but variable, levels of native embolism in the branches. This result suggests that hydraulic damage caused by elevated levels of embolism is likely to be one of the key drivers of drought‐induced mortality following long‐term soil moisture deficit. We demonstrate that some hydraulic traits changed with tree size, however, the direction and magnitude of the change was controlled by taxonomic identity. Our results suggest that Amazonian trees, both small and large, have limited capacity to acclimate their hydraulic systems to future droughts, potentially making them more at risk of drought‐induced mortality.     

Amazon's vulnerability to climate change heightened by deforestation and man‐made dispersal barriers

Species migrations in response to climate change have already been observed in many taxonomic groups worldwide. However, it remains uncertain if species will be able to keep pace with future climate change. Keeping pace will be especially challenging for tropical lowland rainforests due to their high velocities of climate change combined with high rates of deforestation, which may eliminate potential climate analogs and/or increase the effective distances between analogs by blocking species movements. Here, we calculate the distances between current and future climate analogs under various climate change and deforestation scenarios. Under even the most sanguine of climate change models (IPSL_CM4, A1b emissions scenario), we find that the median distance between areas in the Amazon rainforest and their closest future (2050) climate analog as predicted based on just temperature changes alone is nearly 300 km. If we include precipitation, the median distance increases by over 50% to >475 km. Since deforestation is generally concentrated in the hottest and driest portions of the Amazon, we predict that the habitat loss will have little direct impact on distances between climate analogs. If, however, deforested areas also act as a barrier to species movements, nearly 30% or 55% of the Amazon will effectively have no climate analogs anywhere in tropical South America under projections of reduced or Business‐As‐Usual deforestation, respectively. These ‘disappearing climates’ will be concentrated primarily in the southeastern Amazon. Consequently, we predict that several Amazonian ecoregions will have no areas with future climate analogs, greatly increasing the vulnerability of any populations or species specialized on these conditions. These results highlight the importance of including multiple climatic factors and human land‐use in predicting the effects of climate change, as well as the daunting challenges that Amazonian diversity faces in the near future.     

Charcoal‐inferred Holocene fire and vegetation history linked to drought periods in the Democratic Republic of Congo

The impact of Holocene drought events on the presumably stable Central African rainforest remains largely unexplored, in particular the significance of fire. High‐quality sedimentary archives are scarce, and palynological records mostly integrate over large regional scales subject to different fire regimes. Here, we demonstrate a direct temporal link between Holocene droughts, palaeofire and vegetation change within present‐day Central African rainforest, using records of identified charcoal fragments extracted from soil in the southern Mayumbe forest (Democratic Republic of Congo). We find three distinct periods of local palaeofire occurrence: 7.8–6.8 ka BP, 2.3–1.5 ka BP, 0.8 ka BP – present. These periods are linked to well‐known Holocene drought anomalies: the 8.2 ka BP event, the 3rd millennium BP rainforest crisis and the Mediaeval Climate Anomaly. During and after these Holocene droughts, the Central African rainforest landscape was characterized by a fragmented pattern with fire‐prone open patches. Some fires occurred during the drought anomalies although most fires seem to lag behind them, which suggests that the open patches remained fire‐prone after the actual climate anomalies. Charcoal identifications indicate that mature rainforest patches did persist through the Early to Mid‐Holocene climatic transition, the subsequent Holocene thermal optimum and the third millennium BP rainforest crisis, until 0.8 ka BP. However, disturbance and fragmentation were probably more prominent near the boundary of the southern Mayumbe forest. Furthermore, the dominance of pioneer and woodland savanna taxa in younger charcoal assemblages indicates that rainforest regeneration was hampered by increasingly severe drought conditions after 0.8 ka BP. These results support the notion of a dynamic forest ecosystem at multicentury time scales across the Central African rainforest.     

Variation in tropical bird survival across longitude and guilds: a case study from the Amazon

Survival estimates of tropical birds have been used to examine life‐history variation across latitudes and dietary guilds. Here, we provide apparent survival estimates of 31 rainforest species from central Amazonian Brazil and compare our results with estimates from Ecuador, Peru (western Amazonia) and French Guiana (eastern Amazonia) to examine geographic variation in demography. Our averaged annual survival estimate for central Amazonian species (?= 0.59, SE = 0.10) was concordant with previously published estimates from the western Amazon (?= 0.58, SE = 0.02), and eastern Amazon (?= 0.63, SE = 0.06). Two predominate demographic patterns were detected across the study areas: within species, survival was highest or lowest in eastern or western Amazonia, but rarely in central Amazonia. The most striking demographic variation was exhibited by Pithys albifrons, for which apparent survival estimates were nearly twice as high in eastern Amazonia (?= 0.80, SE = 0.06) than in western Amazonia (?= 0.42, SE = 0.06) but intermediate in central Amazonia (?= 0.54, SE = 0.04). Although variation in survival may be associated with differences in life history characteristics, our analysis of flocking guild, body size, and nest architecture revealed only moderate differences in survival associated with nest architecture. These results suggest that geographic variation in population processes may be significant for widespread Amazonian species.     

Spatial patterns and recent trends in the climate of tropical rainforest regions

We present an analysis of the mean climate and climatic trends of tropical rainforest regions over the period 1960-1998, with the aid of explicit maps of forest cover and climatological databases. Until the mid-1970s most regions showed little trend in temperature, and the western Amazon experienced a net cooling probably associated with an interdecadal oscillation. Since the mid-1970s, all tropical rainforest regions have experienced a strong warming at a mean rate of 0.26 +/- 0.05 degrees C per decade, in synchrony with a global rise in temperature that has been attributed to the anthropogenic greenhouse effect. Over the study period, precipitation appears to have declined in tropical rainforest regions at a rate of 1.0 +/- 0.8% per decade (p < 5%), declining sharply in northern tropical Africa (at 3-4% per decade), declining marginally in tropical Asia and showing no significant trend in Amazonia. There is no evidence so far of a decline in precipitation in eastern Amazonia, a region thought vulnerable to climate-change-induced drying. The strong drying trend in Africa suggests that this should be a priority study region for understanding the impact of drought on tropical rainforests. We develop and use a dry-season index to study variations in the length and intensity of the dry season. Only African and Indian tropical rainforests appear to have seen a significant increase in dry-season intensity. In terms of interannual variability, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the primary driver of temperature variations across the tropics and of precipitation fluctuations for large areas of the Americas and southeast Asia. The relation between ENSO and tropical African precipitation appears less direct.