Estimating diarrhea mortality among young children in low and middle income countries

Background

Diarrhea remains one of the leading causes of morbidity and mortality among children under 5 years of age, but in many low and middle-income countries where vital registration data are lacking, updated estimates with regard to the proportion of deaths attributable to diarrhea are needed.

Methods

We conducted a systematic literature review to identify studies reporting diarrhea proportionate mortality for children 1–59 mo of age published between 1980 and 2009. Using the published proportionate mortality estimates and country level covariates we constructed a logistic regression model to estimate country and regional level proportionate mortality and estimated uncertainty bounds using Monte-Carlo simulations.

Findings

We identified more than 90 verbal autopsy studies from around the world to contribute data to a single-cause model. We estimated diarrhea proportionate mortality for 84 countries in 6 regions and found diarrhea to account for between 10.0% of deaths in the Americas to 31.3% of deaths in the South-east Asian region.

Discussion

Diarrhea remains a leading cause of death for children 1–59 mo of age. Published literature can be used to create a single-cause mortality disease model to estimate mortality for countries lacking vital registration data.     

Weight Loss and Premature Death: The 1946 British Birth Cohort Study

Objective

The relationship between weight loss and mortality has important clinical and public health significance but has proved to be complex. Evidence is mixed and particularly limited on the association between weight loss in mid-life and premature death (i.e. before 65 years of age), a small albeit important segment of total mortality. We aimed to study the association between midlife weight change and mortality accounting for health and lifestyle characteristics, and also considering potential bias due to preexisting chronic diseases and smoking status.

Design

Longitudinal, population-based, ‘the 1946 British’ birth cohort study.

Subjects and Measures

In 2750 men and women, mortality from age 53 through 65 years was analyzed according to categories of measured 10 year weight change between 43 and 53 years. Cox''s hazard ratios (HR) were progressively adjusted for socio-demographic, lifestyle and health characteristics.

Results

Nearly 20% of participants lost weight and over 50% gained 5 kg or more in midlife. There were 164 deaths. Compared to those who gained between 2 and 5 kg, those who lost 5 kg or more had an increased risk of premature death independently of midlife physical activity, socio-economic circumstances and educational attainment. This association was unaltered when highest weight loss (lost more than 15 Kg) (p = 0.04) and early deaths were excluded (p<0.001), but was no longer significant after adjustment for cardiovascular risk factors and health status (HR = 1.8; 95% CI: 0.9 to 3.5).

Conclusion

The inverse association between weight loss in midlife and higher risk of premature death may be explained by vascular risk factors and ill health. In consideration of the burden of premature death, closer monitoring of weight loss in mid-life is warranted.     

Changing Mortality Profile among HIV-Infected Patients in Rio de Janeiro,Brazil: Shifting from AIDS to Non-AIDS Related Conditions in the HAART Era

Introduction

We describe temporal trends in the mortality rates and factors associated with AIDS and non-AIDS related mortality at the Evandro Chagas Clinical Research Institute (IPEC), Oswaldo Cruz Foundation (FIOCRUZ).

Methods

Adult patients enrolling from 1986 through 2009 with a minimum follow up of 60 days were included. Vital status was exhaustively checked using patients’ medical charts, through active contact with individuals and family members and by linkage with the Rio de Janeiro Mortality database using a previously validated algorithm. The CoDe protocol was used to establish the cause of death. Extended Cox proportional hazards models were used for multivariate modeling.

Results

A total of 3530 individuals met the inclusion criteria, out of which 868 (24.6%) deceased; median follow up per patient was 3.9 years (interquartile range 1.7–9.2 years). The dramatic decrease in the overall mortality rates was driven by AIDS-related causes that decreased from 9.19 deaths/100PYs n 1986–1991 to 1.35/100PYs in 2007–2009. Non-AIDS related mortality rates remained stable overtime, at around 1 death/100PYs. Immunodeficiency significantly increased the hazard of both AIDS-related and non-AIDS-related causes of death, while HAART use was strongly associated with a lower hazard of death from either cause.

Conclusions

Our results confirm the remarkable decrease in AIDS-related mortality as the HIV epidemic evolved and alerts to the conditions not traditionally related to HIV/AIDS which are now becoming more frequent, needing careful monitoring.     

Estimating Influenza Deaths in Canada, 1992–2009

Background

Poisson regression modelling has been widely used to estimate the disease burden attributable to influenza, though not without concerns that some of the excess burden could be due to other causes. This study aims to provide annual estimates of the mortality and hospitalization burden attributable to both seasonal influenza and the 2009 A/H1N1 pandemic influenza for Canada, and to discuss issues related to the reliability of these estimates.

Methods

Weekly time-series for all-cause mortality and regression models were used to estimate the number of deaths in Canada attributable to influenza from September 1992 to December 2009. To assess their robustness, the annual estimates derived from different parameterizations of the regression model for all-cause mortality were compared. In addition, the association between the annual estimates for mortality and hospitalization by age group, underlying cause of death or primary reason for admission and discharge status is discussed.

Results

The crude influenza-attributed mortality rate based on all-cause mortality and averaged over 17 influenza seasons prior to the 2009 A/H1N1 pandemic was 11.3 (95%CI, 10.5 - 12.1) deaths per 100 000 population per year, or an average of 3,500 (95%CI, 3,200 - 3,700) deaths per year attributable to seasonal influenza. The estimated annual rates ranged from undetectable at the ecological level to more than 6000 deaths per year over the three A/Sydney seasons. In comparison, we attributed an estimated 740 deaths (95%CI, 350–1500) to A(H1N1)pdm09. Annual estimates from different model parameterizations were strongly correlated, as were estimates for mortality and morbidity; the higher A(H1N1)pdm09 burden in younger age groups was the most notable exception.

Interpretation

With the exception of some of the Serfling models, differences in the ecological estimates of the disease burden attributable to influenza were small in comparison to the variation in disease burden from one season to another.     

Causes of Mortality for Indonesian Hajj Pilgrims: Comparison between Routine Death Certificate and Verbal Autopsy Findings

Background

Indonesia provides the largest single source of pilgrims for the Hajj (10%). In the last two decades, mortality rates for Indonesian pilgrims ranged between 200–380 deaths per 100,000 pilgrims over the 10-week Hajj period. Reasons for high mortality are not well understood. In 2008, verbal autopsy was introduced to complement routine death certificates to explore cause of death diagnoses. This study presents the patterns and causes of death for Indonesian pilgrims, and compares routine death certificates to verbal autopsy findings.

Methods

Public health surveillance was conducted by Indonesian public health authorities accompanying pilgrims to Saudi Arabia, with daily reporting of hospitalizations and deaths. Surveillance data from 2008 were analyzed for timing, geographic location and site of death. Percentages for each cause of death category from death certificates were compared to that from verbal autopsy.

Results

In 2008, 206,831 Indonesian undertook the Hajj. There were 446 deaths, equivalent to 1,968 deaths per 100,000 pilgrim years. Most pilgrims died in Mecca (68%) and Medinah (24%). There was no statistically discernible difference in the total mortality risk for the two pilgrimage routes (Mecca or Medinah first), but the number of deaths peaked earlier for those traveling to Mecca first (p=0.002). Most deaths were due to cardiovascular (66%) and respiratory (28%) diseases. A greater proportion of deaths were attributed to cardiovascular disease by death certificate compared to the verbal autopsy method (p<0.001). Significantly more deaths had ill-defined cause based on verbal autopsy method (p<0.001).

Conclusions

Despite pre-departure health screening and other medical services, Indonesian pilgrim mortality rates were very high. Correct classification of cause of death is critical for the development of risk mitigation strategies. Since verbal autopsy classified causes of death differently to death certificates, further studies are needed to assess the method’s utility in this setting.     

Child Deaths Due to Injury in the Four UK Countries: A Time Trends Study from 1980 to 2010

Background

Injuries are an increasingly important cause of death in children worldwide, yet injury mortality is highly preventable. Determining patterns and trends in child injury mortality can identify groups at particularly high risk. We compare trends in child deaths due to injury in four UK countries, between 1980 and 2010.

Methods

We obtained information from death certificates on all deaths occurring between 1980 and 2010 in children aged 28 days to 18 years and resident in England, Scotland, Wales or Northern Ireland. Injury deaths were defined by an external cause code recorded as the underlying cause of death. Injury mortality rates were analysed by type of injury, country of residence, age group, sex and time period.

Results

Child mortality due to injury has declined in all countries of the UK. England consistently experienced the lowest mortality rate throughout the study period. For children aged 10 to 18 years, differences between countries in mortality rates increased during the study period. Inter-country differences were largest for boys aged 10 to 18 years with mortality rate ratios of 1.38 (95% confidence interval 1.16, 1.64) for Wales, 1.68 (1.48, 1.91) for Scotland and 1.81 (1.50, 2.18) for Northern Ireland compared with England (the baseline) in 2006–10. The decline in mortality due to injury was accounted for by a decline in unintentional injuries. For older children, no declines were observed for deaths caused by self-harm, by assault or from undetermined intent in any UK country.

Conclusion

Whilst child deaths from injury have declined in all four UK countries, substantial differences in mortality rates remain between countries, particularly for older boys. This group stands to gain most from policy interventions to reduce deaths from injury in children.     

A new body shape index predicts mortality hazard independently of body mass index

Background

Obesity, typically quantified in terms of Body Mass Index (BMI) exceeding threshold values, is considered a leading cause of premature death worldwide. For given body size (BMI), it is recognized that risk is also affected by body shape, particularly as a marker of abdominal fat deposits. Waist circumference (WC) is used as a risk indicator supplementary to BMI, but the high correlation of WC with BMI makes it hard to isolate the added value of WC.

Methods and Findings

We considered a USA population sample of 14,105 non-pregnant adults () from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) 1999–2004 with follow-up for mortality averaging 5 yr (828 deaths). We developed A Body Shape Index (ABSI) based on WC adjusted for height and weight: ABSI had little correlation with height, weight, or BMI. Death rates increased approximately exponentially with above average baseline ABSI (overall regression coefficient of per standard deviation of ABSI [95% confidence interval: –]), whereas elevated death rates were found for both high and low values of BMI and WC. (–) of the population mortality hazard was attributable to high ABSI, compared to (–) for BMI and (–) for WC. The association of death rate with ABSI held even when adjusted for other known risk factors including smoking, diabetes, blood pressure, and serum cholesterol. ABSI correlation with mortality hazard held across the range of age, sex, and BMI, and for both white and black ethnicities (but not for Mexican ethnicity), and was not weakened by excluding deaths from the first 3 yr of follow-up.

Conclusions

Body shape, as measured by ABSI, appears to be a substantial risk factor for premature mortality in the general population derivable from basic clinical measurements. ABSI expresses the excess risk from high WC in a convenient form that is complementary to BMI and to other known risk factors.     

Estimating pneumonia deaths of post-neonatal children in countries of low or no death certification in 2008

Background

Pneumonia is the leading cause of child deaths globally. The aims of this study were to: a) estimate the number and global distribution of pneumonia deaths for children 1–59 months for 2008 for countries with low (<85%) or no coverage of death certification using single-cause regression models and b) compare these country estimates with recently published ones based on multi-cause regression models.

Methods and Findings

For 35 low child-mortality countries with <85% coverage of death certification, a regression model based on vital registration data of low child-mortality and >85% coverage of death certification countries was used. For 87 high child-mortality countries pneumonia death estimates were obtained by applying a regression model developed from published and unpublished verbal autopsy data from high child-mortality settings. The total number of 1–59 months pneumonia deaths for the year 2008 for these 122 countries was estimated to be 1.18 M (95% CI 0.77 M–1.80 M), which represented 23.27% (95% CI 17.15%–32.75%) of all 1–59 month child deaths. The country level estimation correlation coefficient between these two methods was 0.40.

Interpretation

Although the overall number of post-neonatal pneumonia deaths was similar irrespective to the method of estimation used, the country estimate correlation coefficient was low, and therefore country-specific estimates should be interpreted with caution. Pneumonia remains the leading cause of child deaths and is greatest in regions of poverty and high child-mortality. Despite the concerns about gender inequity linked with childhood mortality we could not estimate sex-specific pneumonia mortality rates due to the inadequate data. Life-saving interventions effective in preventing and treating pneumonia mortality exist but few children in high pneumonia disease burden regions are able to access them. To achieve the United Nations Millennium Development Goal 4 target to reduce child deaths by two-thirds in year 2015 will require the scale-up of access to these effective pneumonia interventions.     

Prediction of Mortality Using On-Line,Self-Reported Health Data: Empirical Test of the Realage Score

Objective

We validate an online, personalized mortality risk measure called “RealAge” assigned to 30 million individuals over the past 10 years.

Methods

188,698 RealAge survey respondents were linked to California Department of Public Health death records using a one-way cryptographic hash of first name, last name, and date of birth. 1,046 were identified as deceased. We used Cox proportional hazards models and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves to estimate the relative scales and predictive accuracies of chronological age, the RealAge score, and the Framingham ATP-III score for hard coronary heart disease (HCHD) in this data. To address concerns about selection and to examine possible heterogeneity, we compared the results by time to death at registration, underlying cause of death, and relative health among users.

Results

The RealAge score is accurately scaled (hazard ratios: age 1.076; RealAge-age 1.084) and more accurate than chronological age (age c-statistic: 0.748; RealAge c-statistic: 0.847) in predicting mortality from hard coronary heart disease following survey completion. The score is more accurate than the Framingham ATP-III score for hard coronary heart disease (c-statistic: 0.814), perhaps because self-reported cholesterol levels are relatively uninformative in the RealAge user sample. RealAge predicts deaths from malignant neoplasms, heart disease, and external causes. The score does not predict malignant neoplasm deaths when restricted to users with no smoking history, no prior cancer diagnosis, and no indicated health interest in cancer (p-value 0.820).

Conclusion

The RealAge score is a valid measure of mortality risk in its user population.     

A Prospective Study of Tobacco Smoking and Mortality in Bangladesh

Background

Limited data are available on smoking-related mortality in low-income countries, where both chronic disease burden and prevalence of smoking are increasing.

Methods

Using data on 20, 033 individuals in the Health Effects of Arsenic Longitudinal Study (HEALS) in Bangladesh, we prospectively evaluated the association between tobacco smoking and all-cause, cancer, and cardiovascular disease mortality during ∼7.6 years of follow-up.Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and their 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for deaths from all-cause, cancer, CVD, ischemic heart disease (IHD), and stroke, in relation to status, duration, and intensity of cigarette/bidi and hookah smoking.

Results

Among men, cigarette/bidi smoking was positively associated with all-cause (HR 1.40, 95% CI 1.06 1.86) and cancer mortality (HR 2.91, 1.24 6.80), and there was a dose-response relationship between increasing intensity of cigarette/bidi consumption and increasing mortality. An elevated risk of death from ischemic heart disease (HR 1.87, 1.08 3.24) was associated with current cigarette/bidi smoking. Among women, the corresponding HRs were 1.65 (95% CI 1.16 2.36) for all-cause mortality and 2.69 (95% CI 1.20 6.01) for ischemic heart disease mortality. Similar associations were observed for hookah smoking. There was a trend towards reduced risk for the mortality outcomes with older age at onset of cigarette/bidi smoking and increasing years since quitting cigarette/bibi smoking among men. We estimated that cigarette/bidi smoking accounted for about 25.0% of deaths in men and 7.6% in women.

Conclusions

Tobacco smoking was responsible for substantial proportion of premature deaths in the Bangladeshi population, especially among men. Stringent measures of tobacco control and cessation are needed to reduce tobacco-related deaths in Bangladesh.     

Unnatural deaths in South African platinum miners, 1992-2008

Background

The mortality rate from unnatural deaths for South Africa is nearly double the world average. Reliable data are limited by inaccurate and incomplete ascertainment of specific causes of unnatural death. This study describes trends in causes of unnatural death between 1992 and 2008 in a cohort of South African miners.

Methodology/Principal Findings

The study used routinely-collected retrospective data with cause of death determined from multiple sources including the mine''s human resources database, medical records, death registration, and autopsy. Cause-specific mortality rates and Poisson regression coefficients were calculated by calendar year and age group. The cohort included 40,043 men. One quarter of all 2937 deaths were from unnatural causes (n = 805). Causes of unnatural deaths were road traffic accidents 38% (109/100,000 py), homicides 30% (88/100,000 py), occupational injuries 17% (50/100,000 py), suicides 8% (24/100,000 py), and other accidents 6% (19/100,000 py). Rates of unnatural deaths declined by 2% (95%CI -4%,-1%) per year over the study period, driven by declining rates of road traffic and other accidents. The rate of occupational injury mortality did not change significantly over time (-2% per year, 95%CI -5%,+2%). Unnatural deaths were less frequent in this cohort of workers than in the South African population (IRR 0.89, 95%CI 0.82–0.95), particularly homicides (IRR 0.48, 95%CI 0.42–0.55).

Conclusions/Significance

Unnatural deaths were a common cause of preventable and premature death in this cohort of miners. While unnatural death rates declined between 1992 and 2008, occupational fatalities remained at a high level. Evidence-based prevention strategies to address these avoidable deaths are urgently needed.     

Association of Body Mass Index with Cause Specific Deaths in Chinese Elderly Hypertensive Patients: Minhang Community Study

Background

Most studies have suggested that elevated body mass index (BMI) was associated with the risk of death from all cause and from specific causes. However, there was little evidence illustrating the effect of BMI on the mortality in elderly hypertensive patients in Chinese population.

Methods

The information of 10,957 hypertensive patients at baseline not less than 60 years were from Xinzhuang, a town in Minhang district of Shanghai, was extracted from the Electronic Health Record (EHR) system. All study participants were divided into eight categories of baseline BMI (with cut-points at 18, 20, 22, 24, 26, 28 and 30 kg/m²). Relative hazard ratio of death from all cause, cardiovascular and non-cardiovascular cause by baseline BMI groups were calculated, standardized for sex, age, smoking, drinking, physical activity, systolic blood pressure, history of cardiovascular disorders, serum lipid disturbance, diabetes mellitus and antihypertensive drug treatment.

Results

During follow up (median: 3.7 years), 561 deaths occurred. Underweight (BMI<18 kg/m²) was associated with significantly increased mortality from all cause mortality (OR: 2.00; 95% CI: 1.43–2.79) and non cardiovascular mortality (OR: 2.76; 95% CI: 1.87–4.07), but not with cardiovascular mortality. For the cause specific analysis, the underweight was associated significantly with neoplasms (OR: 2.15; 95% CI: 1.16–4.00) and respiratory disorders (OR: 3.41; 95% CI: 1.64–7.06). The results for total mortality and specific cause mortality were not influenced by sex, age and smoking status.

Conclusion

Our study revealed an association between underweight and increased mortality from non-cardiovascular disorders in elderly hypertensive patients in Chinese community. Overweight and obesity were not associated with all cause or cause specific death.     

Deaths from Symptomatically Identifiable Furious Rabies in India: A Nationally Representative Mortality Survey

Background

It is estimated that India has more deaths from rabies than any other country. However, existing estimates are indirect and rely on non-representative studies.

Methods and Principal Findings

We examined rabies deaths in the ongoing Million Death Study (MDS), a representative survey of over 122,000 deaths in India that uses enhanced types of verbal autopsy. We estimated the age-specific mortality rates of symptomatically identifiable furious rabies and its geographic and demographic distributions. A total of 140 deaths in our sample were caused by rabies, suggesting that in 2005 there were 12,700 (99% CI 10,000 to 15,500) symptomatically identifiable furious rabies deaths in India. Most rabies deaths were in males (62%), in rural areas (91%), and in children below the age of 15 years (50%). The overall rabies mortality rate was 1.1 deaths per 100,000 population (99%CI 0.9 to 1.4). One third of the national rabies deaths were found in Uttar Pradesh (4,300) and nearly three quarters (8,900) were in 7 central and south-eastern states: Chhattisgarh, Uttar Pradesh, Odisha, Andhra Pradesh, Bihar, Assam, and Madhya Pradesh.

Conclusions and Significance

Rabies remains an avoidable cause of death in India. As verbal autopsy is not likely to identify atypical or paralytic forms of rabies, our figure of 12,700 deaths due to classic and clinically identifiable furious rabies underestimates the total number of deaths due to this virus. The concentrated geographic distribution of rabies in India suggests that a significant reduction in the number of deaths or potentially even elimination of rabies deaths is possible.     

Measuring Unsafe Abortion-Related Mortality: A Systematic Review of the Existing Methods

Background

The WHO estimates that 13% of maternal mortality is due to unsafe abortion, but challenges with measurement and data quality persist. To our knowledge, no systematic assessment of the validity of studies reporting estimates of abortion-related mortality exists.

Study Design

To be included in this study, articles had to meet the following criteria: (1) published between September 1^st, 2000-December 1^st, 2011; (2) utilized data from a country where abortion is “considered unsafe”; (3) specified and enumerated causes of maternal death including “abortion”; (4) enumerated ≥100 maternal deaths; (5) a quantitative research study; (6) published in a peer-reviewed journal.

Results

7,438 articles were initially identified. Thirty-six studies were ultimately included. Overall, studies rated “Very Good” found the highest estimates of abortion related mortality (median 16%, range 1–27.4%). Studies rated “Very Poor” found the lowest overall proportion of abortion related deaths (median: 2%, range 1.3–9.4%).

Conclusions

Improvements in the quality of data collection would facilitate better understanding global abortion-related mortality. Until improved data exist, better reporting of study procedures and standardization of the definition of abortion and abortion-related mortality should be encouraged.     

Causes of Death among Commercially Insured Multiple Sclerosis Patients in the United States

Background

Information on causes of death (CODs) for patients with multiple sclerosis (MS) in the United States is sparse and limited by standard categorizations of underlying and immediate CODs on death certificates. Prior research indicated that excess mortality among MS patients was largely due to greater mortality from infectious, cardiovascular, or pulmonary causes.

Objective

To analyze disease categories in order to gain insight to pathways, which lead directly to death in MS patients.

Methods

Commercially insured MS patients enrolled in the OptumInsight Research database between 1996 and 2009 were matched to non-MS comparators on age/residence at index year and sex. The cause most-directly leading to death from the death certificate, referred to as the “principal” COD, was determined using an algorithm to minimize the selection of either MS or cardiac/pulmonary arrest as the COD. Principal CODs were categorized into MS, cancer, cardiovascular, infectious, suicide, accidental, pulmonary, other, or unknown. Infectious, cardiovascular, and pulmonary CODs were further subcategorized.

Results

30,402 MS patients were matched to 89,818 controls, with mortality rates of 899 and 446 deaths/100,000 person-years, respectively. Excluding MS, differences in mortality rate between MS patients and non-MS comparators were largely attributable to infections, cardiovascular causes, and pulmonary problems. Of the 95 excessive deaths (per 100,000 person-years) related to infectious causes, 41 (43.2%) were due to pulmonary infections and 45 (47.4%) were attributed to sepsis. Of the 46 excessive deaths (per 100,000 person-years) related to pulmonary causes, 27 (58.7%) were due to aspiration. No single diagnostic entity predominated for the 60 excessive deaths (per 100,000 person-years) attributable to cardiac CODs.

Conclusions

The principal COD algorithm improved on other methods of determining COD in MS patients from death certificates. A greater awareness of the common CODs in MS patients will allow physicians to anticipate potential problems and, thereby, improve the care that they provide.     

Statins reduce all-cause mortality in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: a systematic review and meta-analysis of observational studies

Background

Recent observational studies have suggested that use of statins reduces mortality in patients suffering from chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. However, no meta-analysis has reported the pooled hazard ratio of statins to all-cause mortality.

Methods

We searched for eligible articles using five databases. We included randomized controlled trials and cohort studies written in English using original data reporting the hazard ratio of statins to all-cause, cardiovascular-related, cancer-related, or respiratory-related mortality. A fixed model with the confidence interval method was used. Publication bias was evaluated by funnel plot and Begg’s test, and was corrected using Duval’s trim and fill method. Sensitivity analyses were also conducted.

Results

We included 10 out of 128 articles. The pooled hazard ratio of statins to all-cause mortality involving 16269 patients was 0.81 (95% CI: 0.75-0.86, P < 0.001) with moderate heterogeneity (I2 = 52%, P = 0.032). The sensitivity analysis and funnel plot suggested the existence of publication bias. After three possibly unpublished cohorts were imputed, the pooled hazard ratio of 0.83 (95% CI: 0.78-0.88, P < 0.001) still suggested a favorable prognosis in statin-treated patients. The pooled hazard ratio of statins to cardiovascular-related, cancer-related, and respiratory-related mortality were 0.52 (95% CI: 0.27-1.01, P = 0.052), 0.57 (95% CI: 0.32-1.01, P = 0.056), and 0.55 (95% CI: 0.43-0.78, P < 0.001), respectively, although these results were not conclusive as we could not find a sufficient number of original studies dealing with those forms of mortality.

Conclusions

The use of statins for patients suffering from chronic obstructive pulmonary disease may reduce all-cause mortality. This conclusion should be re-evaluated by a registered large-scale randomized controlled trial.     

Trends of Mortality due to Septicemia in Greece: An 8-Year Analysis

Background

Infectious diseases are among the major causes of death worldwide. We evaluated the trends of mortality due to septicemia in Greece and compared it with mortality due to other infections.

Methods

Data on mortality stratified by cause of death during 2003–2010 was obtained from the Hellenic Statistical Authority. Deaths caused by infectious diseases were grouped by site of infection and analyzed using SPSS 17.0 software.

Results

45,451 deaths due to infections were recorded in Greece during the 8-year period of time, among which 12.2% were due to septicemia, 69.7% pneumonia, 1.5% pulmonary tuberculosis, 0.2% influenza, 0.5% other infections of the respiratory tract, 7.9% intra-abdominal infections (IAIs), 2.5% urinary tract infections (UTIs), 2.2% endocarditis or pericarditis or myocarditis, 1.6% hepatitis, 1% infections of the central nervous system, and 0.7% other infections. A percentage of 99.4% of deaths due to septicemia were caused by bacteria that were not reported on the death certificate (noted as indeterminate septicemia). More deaths due to indeterminate septicemia were observed during 2007–2010 compared to 2003–2006 (3,558 versus 1,966; p<0.05).

Conclusion

Despite the limitations related to the quality of death certificates, this study shows that the mortality rate due to septicemia has almost doubled after 2007 in Greece. Proportionally, septicemia accounted for a greater increase in the mortality rate within the infectious causes of death for the same period of time. The emergence of resistance could partially explain this alarming phenomenon. Therefore, stricter infection control measures should be urgently applied in all Greek healthcare facilities.     

Maternal Mortality in India: Causes and Healthcare Service Use Based on a Nationally Representative Survey

Background

Data on cause-specific mortality, skilled birth attendance, and emergency obstetric care access are essential to plan maternity services. We present the distribution of India''s 2001–2003 maternal mortality by cause and uptake of emergency obstetric care, in poorer and richer states.

Methods and Findings

The Registrar General of India surveyed all deaths occurring in 2001–2003 in 1.1 million nationally representative homes. Field staff interviewed household members about events that preceded the death. Two physicians independently assigned a cause of death. Narratives for all maternal deaths were coded for variables on healthcare uptake. Distribution of number of maternal deaths, cause-specific mortality and uptake of healthcare indicators were compared for poorer and richer states. There were 10 041 all-cause deaths in women age 15–49 years, of which 1096 (11.1%) were maternal deaths. Based on 2004–2006 SRS national MMR estimates of 254 deaths per 100 000 live births, we estimated rural areas of poorer states had the highest MMR (397, 95%CI 385–410) compared to the lowest MMR in urban areas of richer states (115, 95%CI 85–146). We estimated 69 400 maternal deaths in India in 2005. Three-quarters of maternal deaths were clustered in rural areas of poorer states, although these regions have only half the estimated live births in India. Most maternal deaths were attributed to direct obstetric causes (82%). There was no difference in the major causes of maternal deaths between poorer and richer states. Two-thirds of women died seeking some form of healthcare, most seeking care in a critical medical condition. Rural areas of poorer states had proportionately lower access and utilization to healthcare services than the urban areas; however this rural-urban difference was not seen in richer states.

Conclusions

Maternal mortality and poor access to healthcare is disproportionately higher in rural populations of the poorer states of India.     

Population Assessment of Future Trajectories in Coronary Heart Disease Mortality

Background

Coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality rates have been decreasing in Iceland since the 1980s, largely reflecting improvements in cardiovascular risk factors. The purpose of this study was to predict future CHD mortality in Iceland based on potential risk factor trends.

Methods and findings

The previously validated IMPACT model was used to predict changes in CHD mortality between 2010 and 2040 among the projected population of Iceland aged 25–74. Calculations were based on combining: i) data on population numbers and projections (Statistics Iceland), ii) population risk factor levels and projections (Refine Reykjavik study), and iii) effectiveness of specific risk factor reductions (published meta-analyses). Projections for three contrasting scenarios were compared: 1) If the historical risk factor trends of past 30 years were to continue, the declining death rates of past decades would level off, reflecting population ageing. 2) If recent trends in risk factors (past 5 years) continue, this would result in a death rate increasing from 49 to 70 per 100,000. This would reflect a recent plateau in previously falling cholesterol levels and recent rapid increases in obesity and diabetes prevalence. 3) Assuming that in 2040 the entire population enjoys optimal risk factor levels observed in low risk cohorts, this would prevent almost all premature CHD deaths before 2040.

Conclusions

The potential increase in CHD deaths with recent trends in risk factor levels is alarming both for Iceland and probably for comparable Western populations. However, our results show considerable room for reducing CHD mortality. Achieving the best case scenario could eradicate premature CHD deaths by 2040. Public health policy interventions based on these predictions may provide a cost effective means of reducing CHD mortality in the future.     

Snakebite mortality in India: a nationally representative mortality survey

Background

India has long been thought to have more snakebites than any other country. However, inadequate hospital-based reporting has resulted in estimates of total annual snakebite mortality ranging widely from about 1,300 to 50,000. We calculated direct estimates of snakebite mortality from a national mortality survey.

Methods and Findings

We conducted a nationally representative study of 123,000 deaths from 6,671 randomly selected areas in 2001–03. Full-time, non-medical field workers interviewed living respondents about all deaths. The underlying causes were independently coded by two of 130 trained physicians. Discrepancies were resolved by anonymous reconciliation or, failing that, by adjudication.A total of 562 deaths (0.47% of total deaths) were assigned to snakebites. Snakebite deaths occurred mostly in rural areas (97%), were more common in males (59%) than females (41%), and peaked at ages 15–29 years (25%) and during the monsoon months of June to September. This proportion represents about 45,900 annual snakebite deaths nationally (99% CI 40,900 to 50,900) or an annual age-standardised rate of 4.1/100,000 (99% CI 3.6–4.5), with higher rates in rural areas (5.4/100,000; 99% CI 4.8–6.0), and with the highest state rate in Andhra Pradesh (6.2). Annual snakebite deaths were greatest in the states of Uttar Pradesh (8,700), Andhra Pradesh (5,200), and Bihar (4,500).

Conclusions

Snakebite remains an underestimated cause of accidental death in modern India. Because a large proportion of global totals of snakebites arise from India, global snakebite totals might also be underestimated. Community education, appropriate training of medical staff and better distribution of antivenom, especially to the 13 states with the highest prevalence, could reduce snakebite deaths in India.