高温胁迫对白眉野草螟滞育幼虫存活特性的影响

【目的】白眉野草螟 Agriphila aeneociliella 是小麦上新发现的一种害虫,以滞育的老熟幼虫做土茧在土壤中越夏,研究明确滞育幼虫在夏季持续高温和极端高温条件下的存活率,为该害虫秋季虫源基数的预测预报和有效防控提供依据。【方法】以白眉野草螟带土茧滞育幼虫和不带土茧滞育幼虫为研究对象,在室内条件下设置43,46,49,52和55℃极端高温,分别处理0.5,1,2和4 h;设置35,37,39和41℃普通高温,分别处理1,2,4和8 d。【结果】极端高温处理2和4 h后,带土茧滞育幼虫半致死温度分别为50.04℃（95%置信区间: 49.36~50.47℃）和48.81℃（95%置信区间: 47.74~49.37℃）,去除土茧后分别为48.20℃（95%置信区间: 47.66~48.74℃）和47.36℃（95%置信区间: 47.08~48.37℃）;52℃温度条件下,带有土茧滞育幼虫半致死时间为1.29 h（95%置信区间: 1.17~1.44 h）,去除土茧后半致死时间为1.02 h（95%置信区间: 0.93~1.18 h）。普通高温处理41℃时,带有土茧滞育幼虫半致死时间为3.21 d（95%置信区间: 2.92~3.52 d）,去除土茧后半致死时间为2.66 d（95%置信区间: 2.33~3.02 d）。【结论】白眉野草螟滞育幼虫具有很强的耐高温能力,土茧对其具有一定的保护作用。小麦收割后深耕灭茬,使土茧或幼虫裸露到地表,利用夏季土表高温杀死滞育幼虫,可以作为一项有效的农业防治措施。     

Confidence interval construction for relative toxicity endpoints such as LD50 or LD90 ratios

A common measure of the relative toxicity is the ratio of median lethal doses for responses estimated in two bioassays. Robertson and Preisler previously proposed a method for constructing a confidence interval for the ratio. The applicability of this technique in common experimental situations, especially those involving small samples, may be questionable because the sampling distribution of this ratio estimator may be highly skewed. To examine this possibility, we did a computer simulation experiment to evaluate the coverage properties of the Robertson and Preisler method. The simulation showed that the method provided confidence intervals that performed at the nominal confidence level for the range of responses often observed in pesticide bioassays. Results of this study provide empirical support for the continued use this technique.     

Exact confidence bounds following adaptive group sequential tests

Summary .  We provide a method for obtaining confidence intervals, point estimates, and p-values for the primary effect size parameter at the end of a two-arm group sequential clinical trial in which adaptive changes have been implemented along the way. The method is based on applying the adaptive hypothesis testing procedure of Müller and Schäfer (2001, Biometrics 57, 886–891) to a sequence of dual tests derived from the stage-wise adjusted confidence interval of Tsiatis, Rosner, and Mehta (1984, Biometrics 40, 797–803). In the nonadaptive setting this confidence interval is known to provide exact coverage. In the adaptive setting exact coverage is guaranteed provided the adaptation takes place at the penultimate stage. In general, however, all that can be claimed theoretically is that the coverage is guaranteed to be conservative. Nevertheless, extensive simulation experiments, supported by an empirical characterization of the conditional error function, demonstrate convincingly that for all practical purposes the coverage is exact and the point estimate is median unbiased. No procedure has previously been available for producing confidence intervals and point estimates with these desirable properties in an adaptive group sequential setting. The methodology is illustrated by an application to a clinical trial of deep brain stimulation for Parkinson's disease.     

A comparison of reflected versus test-based confidence intervals for the median survival time, based on censored data

The small-sample performance of some recently proposed nonparametric methods of constructing confidence intervals for the median survival time, based on randomly right-censored data, is compared with that of two new methods. Most of these methods are equivalent for large samples. All proposed intervals are either 'test-based' or 'reflected' intervals, in the sense defined in the paper. Coverage probabilities for the interval estimates were obtained by exact calculation for uncensored data, and by stimulation for three life distributions and four censoring patterns. In the range of situations studied, 'test-based' methods often have less than nominal coverage, while the coverage of the new 'reflected' confidence intervals is closer to nominal (although somewhat conservative), and these intervals are easy to compute.     

Measurement of activity of urea resistant neutrophil alkaline phosphatase as an antenatal screening test for Down's syndrome.

OBJECTIVE--To investigate the value of measuring maternal urea resistant neutrophil alkaline phosphatase activity as an antenatal screening test for Down''s syndrome. DESIGN--Case-control study of blood samples collected at nine to 27 weeks of pregnancy. SETTING--Antenatal clinics in London and Oxford. PATIENTS--72 Women whose fetuses had been diagnosed by amniocentesis or chorionic villus sampling as having Down''s syndrome and 156 women whose fetuses did not have the syndrome. Only singleton pregnancies were studied. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE--Activity of urea resistant neutrophil alkaline phosphatase measured cytochemically. RESULTS--The median enzyme activity in the index patients was 1.65 times the expected median for the controls at the same duration of pregnancy (p less than 0.0001; 95% confidence interval 1.56 to 1.74). A cut off value that identified the 5% of control patients with the highest activities yielded a rate of detection of Down''s syndrome of 79% (95% confidence interval 70 to 89%). CONCLUSION--Activity of urea resistant neutrophil alkaline phosphatase is an effective maternal blood marker for Down''s syndrome. Its use in antenatal screening could lead to a substantial improvement in the detection of this disorder. Before introducing the test into routine medical practice it will have to be automated so that it can be used on a large scale and is less subjective.     

Exact-corrected confidence interval for risk difference in noninferiority binomial trials

A novel confidence interval estimator is proposed for the risk difference in noninferiority binomial trials. The proposed confidence interval, which is dependent on the prespecified noninferiority margin, is consistent with an exact unconditional test that preserves the type-I error and has improved power, particularly for smaller sample sizes, compared to the confidence interval by Chan and Zhang. The improved performance of the proposed confidence interval is theoretically justified and demonstrated with simulations and examples. An R package is also distributed that implements the proposed methods along with other confidence interval estimators.     

Vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) and melanoma. N-acetylcysteine downregulates VEGF production in vitro

Vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF), the most potent angiogenic factor identified to date, is associated with growth and metastasis of solid tumours, including melanoma. It has been shown in vitro that melanoma cells produce raised concentrations of VEGF. We examined the VEGF concentrations in plasma of 20 patients with primary melanoma, local recurrence and metastatic melanoma. We also studied the inhibiting effect of one antioxidant, N-acetylcysteine, on VEGF production in three human melanoma cell lines. We found elevated levels of VEGF (median 205 pg ml; 95 percent confidence interval, 80-414) in metastatic melanoma, with respect to primary and locally recurrent melanoma (75 pg/ml; 95 percent confidence interval, 35-130). The health control patients had levels of 25 pg/ml (95 percent confidence interval, 10-35). Human melanoma cell lines secreted VEGF in basal conditions (550-963 +/- 125 pg/ml) and N-acetylcysteine (0.5-20 mM) significantly decreased the VEGF production in a dose-dependent manner. VEGF concentrations were found to be raised in patients with primary melanoma, local recurrence, and above all, metastatic melanoma (P=0.008). N-acetylcysteine inhibits VEGF production in three human melanoma cell lines. This antioxidant might have therapeutic applications in metastatic melanoma in combination with other cytotoxic drugs.     

Simple Methods of Determining Confidence Intervals for Functions of Estimates in Published Results

Often, the reader of a published paper is interested in a comparison of parameters that has not been presented. It is not possible to make inferences beyond point estimation since the standard error for the contrast of the estimated parameters depends upon the (unreported) correlation. This study explores approaches to obtain valid confidence intervals when the correlation is unknown. We illustrate three proposed approaches using data from the National Health Interview Survey. The three approaches include the Bonferroni method and the standard confidence interval assuming (most conservative) or (when the correlation is known to be non-negative). The Bonferroni approach is found to be the most conservative. For the difference in two estimated parameter, the standard confidence interval assuming yields a 95% confidence interval that is approximately 12.5% narrower than the Bonferroni confidence interval; when the correlation is known to be positive, the standard 95% confidence interval assuming is approximately 38% narrower than the Bonferroni. In summary, this article demonstrates simple methods to determine confidence intervals for unreported comparisons. We suggest use of the standard confidence interval assuming if no information is available or if the correlation is known to be non-negative.     

Random Postoperative Day-3 Cortisol Concentration as a Predictor of Hypothalamic-Pituitary-Adrenal Axis Integrity after Transsphenoidal Surgery

ObjectiveTo determine whether a random postoperative day-3 cortisol value of 10 μg/dL or greater is predictive of adrenal sufficiency 3 to 10 weeks after transsphenoidal surgery (TSS) and during long-term clinical follow-up.MethodsWe retrospectively reviewed the case records of patients who underwent TSS at our institution between 1991 and 2008. Inclusion criteria were as follows: random cortisol measured on the morning of postoperative day 3, adrenal dynamic testing performed 3 to 10 weeks after TSS, and clinical assessment of the hypothalamicpituitary-adrenal (HPA) axis at least 6 months after TSS.ResultsA total of 466 patients underwent TSS at our institution during the study period. Eighty-three patients met study inclusion criteria. Sensitivity of a random postoperative day-3 serum cortisol value of 10 μg/dL or greater for the prediction of adrenal sufficiency at a median follow-up of 42 days was 64.81% (95% confidence interval, 50.6%-77.32%), with an odds ratio of 3.1 (95% confidence interval, 1.08-8.58). Specificity was 62.1% (95% confidence interval, 42.3%-79.3%). At a median follow-up of 500 days, only 2 patients with a postoperative day-3 cortisol value of 10 μg/dL or greater required hydrocortisone replacement, both of whom had multiple anterior pituitary hormone deficiencies and evidence of pituitary dysfunction during the perioperative period.ConclusionsIn the appropriate clinical context, a postoperative day-3 cortisol value of 10 μg/dL or greater accurately predicts the integrity of the HPA axis. The final decision regarding corticosteroid replacement should be personalized, considering the postoperative day-3 cortisol level, the clinical context in which the measurement was obtained, and any evidence of concomitant pituitary dysfunction in the perioperative period. (Endocr Pract. 2011;17:717-726)     

Computer support for interpreting family histories of breast and ovarian cancer in primary care: comparative study with simulated cases

ObjectivesTo evaluate the potential effect of computer support on general practitioners'' management of familial breast and ovarian cancer, and to compare the effectiveness of two different types of computer program.DesignCrossover experiment with balanced block design.ParticipantsOf a random sample of 100 general practitioners from Buckinghamshire who were invited, 41 agreed to participate. From these, 36 were selected for a fully balanced study.InterventionsDoctors managed 18 simulated cases: 6 with computerised decision support system Risk Assessment in Genetics (RAGs), 6 with Cyrillic (an established pedigree drawing program designed for clinical geneticists), and 6 with pen and paper.ResultsRAGs resulted in significantly more appropriate management decisions (median 6) than either Cyrillic (median 3) or pen and paper (median 3); median difference between RAGs and Cyrillic 2.5 (95% confidence interval 2.0 to 3.0; P<0.0001). RAGs also resulted in significantly more accurate pedigrees (median 5) than both Cyrillic (median 3.5) and pen and paper (median 2); median difference between RAGs and Cyrillic 1.5 (1.0 to 2.0; P<0.0001). The time taken to use RAGs (median 178 seconds) was 51 seconds longer per case (95% confidence interval 36 to 65; P<0.0001) than pen and paper (median 124 seconds) but was less than Cyrillic (median 203 seconds; difference 23. (5 to 43; P=0.02)). 33 doctors (92% (78% to 98%)) preferred using RAGs overall. The most important elements of an “ideal computer program” for genetic advice in primary care were referral advice, the capacity to create pedigrees, and provision of evidence and explanations to support advice.ConclusionsRAGs could enable general practitioners to be more effective gatekeepers to genetics services, empowering them to reassure the majority of patients with a family history of breast and ovarian cancer who are not at increased genetic risk.     

On Parametric Confidence Intervals for the Cost‐Effectiveness Ratio

When comparing two competing interventions, confidence intervals for cost‐effectiveness ratios (CERs) provide information on the uncertainty in their point estimates. Techniques for constructing these confidence intervals are much debated. We provide a formal comparison of the Fieller, symmetric and Bonferroni methods for constructing confidence intervals for the CER using only the joint asymptotic distribution of the incremental cost and incremental effectiveness of the two interventions being compared. We prove the existence of a finite interval under the Fieller method when the incremental effectiveness is statistically significant. When this difference is not significant the Fieller method yields an unbounded confidence interval. The Fieller interval is always wider than the symmetric interval, but the latter is an approximation to the Fieller interval when the incremental effectiveness is highly significant. The Bonferroni method is shown to produce the widest interval. Because it accounts for the likely correlation between cost and effectiveness measures, and the intuitively appealing relationship between the existence of a bounded interval and the significance of the incremental effectiveness, the Fieller interval is to be preferred in reporting a confidence interval for the CER.     

Statin Use Is Not Associated with Improved Progression Free Survival in Cetuximab Treated KRAS Mutant Metastatic Colorectal Cancer Patients: Results from the CAIRO2 Study

Statins may inhibit the expression of the mutant KRAS phenotype by preventing the prenylation and thus the activation of the KRAS protein. This study was aimed at retrospectively evaluating the effect of statin use on outcome in KRAS mutant metastatic colorectal cancer patients (mCRC) treated with cetuximab. Treatment data were obtained from patients who were treated with capecitabine, oxaliplatin bevacizumab ± cetuximab in the phase III CAIRO2 study. A total of 529 patients were included in this study, of whom 78 patients were on statin therapy. In patients with a KRAS wild type tumor (n = 321) the median PFS was 10.3 vs. 11.4 months for non-users compared to statin users and in patients with a KRAS mutant tumor (n = 208) this was 7.6 vs. 6.2 months, respectively. The hazard ratio (HR) for PFS for statin users was 1.12 (95% confidence interval 0.78–1.61) and was not influenced by treatment arm, KRAS mutation status or the KRAS*statin interaction. Statin use adjusted for covariates was not associated with increased PFS (HR = 1.01, 95% confidence interval 0.71–1.54). In patients with a KRAS wild type tumor the median OS for non-users compared to statin users was 22.4 vs. 19.8 months and in the KRAS mutant tumor group the OS was 18.1 vs. 14.5 months. OS was significantly shorter in statin users versus non-users (HR = 1.54; 95% confidence interval 1.06–2.22). However, statin use, adjusted for covariates was not associated with increased OS (HR = 1.41, 95% confidence interval 0.95–2.10). In conclusion, the use of statins at time of diagnosis was not associated with an improved PFS in KRAS mutant mCRC patients treated with chemotherapy and bevacizumab plus cetuximab.     

An Improvement of the Westlake Symmetric Confidence Interval

A common statistical method for assessing bioequivalence of two formulations of a chemical substance is the symmetric confidence interval of WESTLAKE (1972). As mentioned by WEST -LAKE (1981) and SCHUIRMAN (1981) a more powerful method consists of two one-sided t-tests. An (1-α)-confidence interval consistent with the two one-sided t-tests procedure is given by [min(α, 0), max (0, b)] where [a, b] is the conventional (1–2α)-confidence interval of the t-test. This “central” confidence interval is always a strict subset of the symmetric confidence interval and thus has more power in proving bioequivalence. The central confidence interval has properties comparable with those of the conventional one-sided confidence intervals.     

Constructing Confidence Intervals for Qtl Location

We describe a method for constructing the confidence interval of the QTL location parameter. This method is developed in the local asymptotic framework, leading to a linear model at each position of the putative QTL. The idea is to construct a likelihood ratio test, using statistics whose asymptotic distribution does not depend on the nuisance parameters and in particular on the effect of the QTL. We show theoretical properties of the confidence interval built with this test, and compare it with the classical confidence interval using simulations. We show in particular, that our confidence interval has the correct probability of containing the true map location of the QTL, for almost all QTLs, whereas the classical confidence interval can be very biased for QTLs having small effect.     

A Revised Timeline for the Origin of Plasmodium falciparum as a Human Pathogen

While Plasmodium falciparum is known to have had a strong effect on human evolution, the time period when P. falciparum first infected ancestors of modern humans has remained uncertain. Recent advances demonstrated that P. falciparum evolved from ancestors of gorilla parasites via host switching. Here, we estimate the range of dates during which this host switch may have occurred. DNA sequences of portions of the mitochondrial cytochrome b gene obtained from gorilla parasites closely related to human P. falciparum were aligned and compared against similar sequences from human P. falciparum. Time estimates were calculated by applying a previously established parasite cytochrome b gene mutation rate (0.012 mutations per site per million years) and by modeling uncertainty in a Monte-Carlo simulation. We estimate a 95% confidence interval for when P. falciparum first infected ancestors of modern humans to be 112,000 and 1,036,000 years ago (median estimate, 365,000 years ago). This confidence interval suggests that P. falciparum first infected human ancestors much more recently than the previous recognized estimate of 2.5 million years ago. The revised estimate may inform our understanding of certain aspects of human-malaria co-evolution. For example, this revised date suggests a closer relationship between the entry of P. falciparum in humans and the appearance of many red blood cell polymorphisms considered to be genetic adaptations to malaria. In addition, the confidence interval lies within the timeframe dating the dawn of Homo sapiens, suggesting that P. falciparum may have undergone host switching as a Plasmodia adaptation specific for our species.     

Confidence Intervals for the Difference of Median Survival Times Using the Stratified Cox Proportional Hazards Model

The stratified Cox proportional hazards model is introduced to incorporate covariates and involve nonproportional treatment effect of two groups into the analysis and then the confidence interval estimators for the difference in median survival times of two treatments in stratified Cox model are proposed. The one is based on baseline survival functions of two groups, and the other on average survival functions of two groups. I illustrate the proposed methods with an example from a study conducted by the Radiation Therapy Oncology Group in cancer of the mouth and throat. Simulations are carried out to investigate the small‐sample properties of proposed methods in terms of coverage rates.     

The performance of a two‐stage analysis of ABAB/BABA crossover trials

Freeman has considered the following two‐stage procedure for finding a confidence interval for the treatment difference theta, using data from an AB/BA crossover trial. In the first stage, a preliminary test of the null hypothesis that the differential carryover is zero is carried out. If this hypothesis is accepted then the confidence interval for theta is constructed assuming that the differential carryover is zero. If, on the other hand, this hypothesis is rejected then this confidence interval is constructed using only data from the first period. Freeman has shown that this confidence interval has minimum coverage probability far below nominal. He therefore concludes that this confidence interval should not be used. In the present paper, we analyze the performance of a similar two‐stage procedure for an ABAB/BABA crossover trial. This trial differs in very significant ways from an AB/BA crossover trial, including the fact that for an ABAB/BABA crossover trial there is an unbiased estimator of the differential carryover that is unaffected by between‐subject variation. Despite these great differences, we arrive at the same conclusion as Freeman. Namely, that the confidence interval resulting from the two‐stage procedure should not be used.     

Bullous pemphigoid and pemphigus vulgaris—incidence and mortality in the UK: population based cohort study

Objective To determine the incidence of and mortality from bullous pemphigoid and pemphigus vulgaris in the United Kingdom.Design Retrospective historical cohort study.Setting Computerised medical records from the health improvement network, a large population based UK general practice database.Participants Patients with pemphigus vulgaris and bullous pemphigoid diagnostic codes and age, sex, and practice matched controls.Main outcome measures Incidence and mortality compared with the control population by calendar period, age group, sex, geographical region, and degree of social deprivation.Results 869 people with bullous pemphigoid and 138 people with pemphigus vulgaris were identified. The median age at presentation for bullous pemphigoid was 80 (range 23-102) years, and 534 (61%) patients were female. The median age at presentation for pemphigus vulgaris was 71 (21-102) years, and 91 (66%) patients were female. Incidences of bullous pemphigoid and pemphigus vulgaris were 4.3 (95% confidence interval 4.0 to 4.6) and 0.7 (0.6 to 0.8) per 100 000 person years. The incidence of bullous pemphigoid increased over time; the average yearly increase was 17% (incidence rate ratio=1.2, 95% confidence interval 1.1 to 1.2). An average yearly increase in incidence of pemphigus vulgaris of 11% (incidence rate ratio=1.1, 1.0 to 1.2) occurred. The risk of death for patients with bullous pemphigoid was twice as great as for controls (adjusted hazard ratio=2.3, 95% confidence interval 2.0 to 2.7). For pemphigus vulgaris, the risk of death was three times greater than for controls (adjusted hazard ratio=3.3, 2.2 to 5.2).Conclusions Incidences of bullous pemphigoid and pemphigus vulgaris are increasing. The reasons for the changes in incidence are not clearly understood but have implications for identifying causative factors. Both disorders are associated with a high risk of death. Previous estimates may have underestimated the risk of death associated with these diseases.     

Confidence Intervals in Qtl Mapping by Bootstrapping

The determination of empirical confidence intervals for the location of quantitative trait loci (QTLs) was investigated using simulation. Empirical confidence intervals were calculated using a bootstrap resampling method for a backcross population derived from inbred lines. Sample sizes were either 200 or 500 individuals, and the QTL explained 1, 5, or 10% of the phenotypic variance. The method worked well in that the proportion of empirical confidence intervals that contained the simulated QTL was close to expectation. In general, the confidence intervals were slightly conservatively biased. Correlations between the test statistic and the width of the confidence interval were strongly negative, so that the stronger the evidence for a QTL segregating, the smaller the empirical confidence interval for its location. The size of the average confidence interval depended heavily on the population size and the effect of the QTL. Marker spacing had only a small effect on the average empirical confidence interval. The LOD drop-off method to calculate empirical support intervals gave confidence intervals that generally were too small, in particular if confidence intervals were calculated only for samples above a certain significance threshold. The bootstrap method is easy to implement and is useful in the analysis of experimental data.