Demographic Processes Drive Increases in Wildlife Disease following Population Reduction

Population reduction is often used as a control strategy when managing infectious diseases in wildlife populations in order to reduce host density below a critical threshold. However, population reduction can disrupt existing social and demographic structures leading to changes in observed host behaviour that may result in enhanced disease transmission. Such effects have been observed in several disease systems, notably badgers and bovine tuberculosis. Here we characterise the fundamental properties of disease systems for which such effects undermine the disease control benefits of population reduction.By quantifying the size of response to population reduction in terms of enhanced transmission within a generic non-spatial model, the properties of disease systems in which such effects reduce or even reverse the disease control benefits of population reduction are identified. If population reduction is not sufficiently severe, then enhanced transmission can lead to the counter intuitive perturbation effect, whereby disease levels increase or persist where they would otherwise die out. Perturbation effects are largest for systems with low levels of disease, e.g. low levels of endemicity or emerging disease.Analysis of a stochastic spatial meta-population model of demography and disease dynamics leads to qualitatively similar conclusions. Moreover, enhanced transmission itself is found to arise as an emergent property of density dependent dispersal in such systems. This spatial analysis also shows that, below some threshold, population reduction can rapidly increase the area affected by disease, potentially expanding risks to sympatric species.Our results suggest that the impact of population reduction on social and demographic structures is likely to undermine disease control in many systems, and in severe cases leads to the perturbation effect. Social and demographic mechanisms that enhance transmission following population reduction should therefore be routinely considered when designing control programmes.     

Updating age-specific contact structures to match evolving demography in a dynamic mathematical model of tuberculosis vaccination

We investigated the effects of updating age-specific social contact matrices to match evolving demography on vaccine impact estimates. We used a dynamic transmission model of tuberculosis in India as a case study. We modelled four incremental methods to update contact matrices over time, where each method incorporated its predecessor: fixed contact matrix (M0), preserved contact reciprocity (M1), preserved contact assortativity (M2), and preserved average contacts per individual (M3). We updated the contact matrices of a deterministic compartmental model of tuberculosis transmission, calibrated to epidemiologic data between 2000 and 2019 derived from India. We additionally calibrated the M0, M2, and M3 models to the 2050 TB incidence rate projected by the calibrated M1 model. We stratified age into three groups, children (<15y), adults (≥15y, <65y), and the elderly (≥65y), using World Population Prospects demographic data, between which we applied POLYMOD-derived social contact matrices. We simulated an M72-AS01_E-like tuberculosis vaccine delivered from 2027 and estimated the per cent TB incidence rate reduction (IRR) in 2050 under each update method. We found that vaccine impact estimates in all age groups remained relatively stable between the M0–M3 models, irrespective of vaccine-targeting by age group. The maximum difference in impact, observed following adult-targeted vaccination, was 7% in the elderly, in whom we observed IRRs of 19% (uncertainty range 13–32), 20% (UR 13–31), 22% (UR 14–37), and 26% (UR 18–38) following M0, M1, M2 and M3 updates, respectively. We found that model-based TB vaccine impact estimates were relatively insensitive to demography-matched contact matrix updates in an India-like demographic and epidemiologic scenario. Current model-based TB vaccine impact estimates may be reasonably robust to the lack of contact matrix updates, but further research is needed to confirm and generalise this finding.     

Prehistoric tuberculosis in america: adding comments to a literature review

Tuberculosis is a prehistoric American human disease. This paper reviews the literature and discusses hypotheses for origins and epidemiological patterns of prehistoric tuberculosis. From the last decades, 24 papers about prehistoric tuberculosis were published and 133 cases were reviewed. In South America most are isolated case studies, contrary to North America where more skeletal series were analyzed. Disease was usually located at the deserts of Chile and Peru, Central Plains in USA, and Lake Ontario in Canada. Skeletal remains represent most of the cases, but 16 mummies have also been described. Thirty individuals had lung disease, 19 of them diagnosed by the ribs. More then 100 individuals had osseous tuberculosis and 26 also had it in other organs. As today, transmission of the infection and establishment of the disease were favored by cultural and life-style changes such as sedentarization, crowding, undernutrition, use of dark and insulated houses, and by the frequency of interpersonal contacts. The papers confirm that despite previous perceptions, tuberculosis seems to have occurred in America for millennia. It only had epidemiological expression when special conditions favored its expansion. Occurring as epidemic bursts or low endemic disease, it had differential impact on groups or social segments in America for at least two millennia.     

Facing the crowd: intruder pressure,within‐group competition,and the resolution of conflicts over group‐membership

Recent theory in social evolution has been mainly concerned with competition and cooperation within social groups of animals and their impact on the stability of those groups. Much less attention has been paid to conflicts arising as a result of solitary floaters (outsiders) attempting to join groups of established residents (insiders). We model such conflicts over group‐membership using a demographically explicit approach in which the rates of births and deaths in a population determine the availability of group‐vacancies and the number of floaters competing over these vacancies. We find that the outcome of within‐group competition, reflected in the partitioning of reproduction among group members, exerts surprisingly little influence on the resolution of insider‐outsider conflict. The outcome of such conflict is also largely unaffected by differences in resource holding potential between insiders and outsiders. By contrast, whether or not groups form is mainly determined by demographic factors (variation in vital rates such as fecundity and mortality) and the resulting population dynamics. In particular, at high floater densities territory defense becomes too costly, and groups form because insiders give in to the intruder pressure imposed on them by outsiders. We emphasize the importance of insider‐outsider conflicts in social evolution theory and highlight avenues for future research.     

The impact of interventions on a pre-industrial Austrian Alpine population

The purpose of the present study is to gain a better understanding of the role of culture in demographic behaviour. The case study uses demographic data to illustrate cultural factors intervening in the social organisation of an Austrian village in the period 1700-1900. Two sets of potential intervening variables that might explain the effects of culture on demographic behaviour were investigated: population policies through normative regulations and institutional changes due to shifts in government. The paper employs statistical techniques in a structural change setting for evaluating the impact of policies and institutional changes on the demographic development. There is clear evidence that normative interventions concerning the fraction of illegitimate births and the marriage pattern were effective.     

International Monetary Fund programs and tuberculosis outcomes in post-communist countries

Background

Previous studies have indicated that International Monetary Fund (IMF) economic programs have influenced health-care infrastructure in recipient countries. The post-communist Eastern European and former Soviet Union countries experienced relatively similar political and economic changes over the past two decades, and participated in IMF programs of varying size and duration. We empirically examine how IMF programs related to changes in tuberculosis incidence, prevalence, and mortality rates among these countries.

Methods and Findings

We performed multivariate regression of two decades of tuberculosis incidence, prevalence, and mortality data against variables potentially influencing tuberculosis program outcomes in 21 post-communist countries for which comparative data are available. After correcting for confounding variables, as well as potential detection, selection, and ecological biases, we observed that participating in an IMF program was associated with increased tuberculosis incidence, prevalence, and mortality rates by 13.9%, 13.2%, and 16.6%, respectively. Each additional year of participation in an IMF program was associated with increased tuberculosis mortality rates by 4.1%, and each 1% increase in IMF lending was associated with increased tuberculosis mortality rates by 0.9%. On the other hand, we estimated a decrease in tuberculosis mortality rates of 30.7% (95% confidence interval, 18.3% to 49.5%) associated with exiting the IMF programs. IMF lending did not appear to be a response to worsened health outcomes; rather, it appeared to be a precipitant of such outcomes (Granger- and Sims-causality tests), even after controlling for potential political, socioeconomic, demographic, and health-related confounders. In contrast, non-IMF lending programs were connected with decreased tuberculosis mortality rates (−7.6%, 95% confidence interval, −1.0% to −14.1%). The associations observed between tuberculosis mortality and IMF programs were similar to those observed when evaluating the impact of IMF programs on tuberculosis incidence and prevalence. While IMF programs were connected with large reductions in generalized government expenditures, tuberculosis program coverage, and the number of physicians per capita, non-IMF lending programs were not significantly associated with these variables.

Conclusions

IMF economic reform programs are associated with significantly worsened tuberculosis incidence, prevalence, and mortality rates in post-communist Eastern European and former Soviet countries, independent of other political, socioeconomic, demographic, and health changes in these countries. Future research should attempt to examine how IMF programs may have related to other non-tuberculosis–related health outcomes.     

Directed mutagenesis of Mycobacterium smegmatis 16S rRNA to reconstruct the in vivo evolution of aminoglycoside resistance in Mycobacterium tuberculosis

Drug resistance in Mycobacterium tuberculosis is a global problem, with major consequences for treatment and public health systems. As the emergence and spread of drug‐resistant tuberculosis epidemics is largely influenced by the impact of the resistance mechanism on bacterial fitness, we wished to investigate whether compensatory evolution occurs in drug‐resistant clinical isolates of M. tuberculosis. By combining information from molecular epidemiology studies of drug‐resistant clinical M. tuberculosis isolates with genetic reconstructions and measurements of aminoglycoside susceptibility and fitness in Mycobacterium smegmatis, we have reconstructed a plausible pathway for how aminoglycoside resistance develops in clinical isolates of M. tuberculosis. Thus, we show by reconstruction experiments that base changes in the highly conserved A‐site of 16S rRNA that: (i) cause aminoglycoside resistance, (ii) confer a high fitness cost and (iii) destabilize a stem‐loop structure, are associated with a particular compensatory point mutation that restores rRNA secondary structure and bacterial fitness, while maintaining to a large extent the drug‐resistant phenotype. The same types of resistance and associated mutations can be found in M. tuberculosis in clinical isolates, suggesting that compensatory evolution contributes to the spread of drug‐resistant tuberculosis disease.     

Spatial connectedness imposes local‐ and metapopulation‐level selection on life history through feedbacks on demography

Dispersal evolution impacts the fluxes of individuals and hence, connectivity in metapopulations. Connectivity is therefore decoupled from the structural connectedness of the patches within the spatial network. Because of demographic feedbacks, local selection also drives the evolution of other life history traits. We investigated how different levels of connectedness affect trait evolution in experimental metapopulations of the two‐spotted spider mite. We separated local‐ and metapopulation‐level selection and linked trait divergence to population dynamics. With lower connectedness, an increased starvation resistance and delayed dispersal evolved. Reproductive performance evolved locally by transgenerational plasticity or epigenetic processes. Costs of dispersal, but also changes in local densities and temporal fluctuations herein are found to be putative drivers. In addition to dispersal, demographic traits are able to evolve in response to metapopulation connectedness at both the local and metapopulation level by genetic and/or non‐genetic inheritance. These trait changes impact the persistence of spatially structured populations.     

Education as policy: the impact of education on marriage, contraception, and fertility in Colombia, Peru, and Bolivia

Using data from the World Fertility and Demographic and Health Surveys of Colombia, Peru, and Bolivia, we model the effects of education on three demographic outcomes: the timing of first sexual union, contraceptive use, and fertility. These effects are examined over time and across geographic areas using a multivariate framework. We find substantial improvements in female educational attainment over the last fifty years and a strong relationship between education and the demographic outcomes. Each successive increment in education is associated with declines in the marriage rate, increased contraceptive use, and lower fertility. Education accounts for some of the changes over time in the demographic outcomes, but the pattern varies by outcome, time period, and geographic area. In support of the social diffusion hypothesis, our results indicate that educational differences in reproductive behavior are reduced as the level of development increases and societies pass through their demographic transition.     

Evolution of helping and harming in heterogeneous populations

There has been much interest in understanding how demographic factors can mediate social evolution in viscous populations. Here, we examine the impact of heterogeneity in patch quality--that is, the availability of reproductive resources for each breeder--upon the evolution of helping and harming behaviors. We find that, owing to a cancellation of relatedness and kin competition effects, the evolution of obligate and facultative helping and harming is not influenced by the degree of viscosity in populations characterized by either spatial or temporal heterogeneity in patch quality. However, facultative helping and harming may be favored when there is both spatial and temporal heterogeneity in patch quality, with helping and harming being favored in both high-quality and low-quality patches. We highlight the prospect for using kin selection theory to explain within-population variation in social behavior, and point to the need for further theoretical and empirical investigation of this topic.     

Protective impacts of household-based tuberculosis contact tracing are robust across endemic incidence levels and community contact patterns

There is an emerging consensus that achieving global tuberculosis control targets will require more proactive case finding approaches than are currently used in high-incidence settings. Household contact tracing (HHCT), for which households of newly diagnosed cases are actively screened for additional infected individuals is a potentially efficient approach to finding new cases of tuberculosis, however randomized trials assessing the population-level effects of such interventions in settings with sustained community transmission have shown mixed results. One potential explanation for this is that household transmission is responsible for a variable proportion of population-level tuberculosis burden between settings. For example, transmission is more likely to occur in households in settings with a lower tuberculosis burden and where individuals mix preferentially in local areas, compared with settings with higher disease burden and more dispersed mixing. To better understand the relationship between endemic incidence levels, social mixing, and the impact of HHCT, we developed a spatially explicit model of coupled household and community transmission. We found that the impact of HHCT was robust across settings of varied incidence and community contact patterns. In contrast, we found that the effects of community contact tracing interventions were sensitive to community contact patterns. Our results suggest that the protective benefits of HHCT are robust and the benefits of this intervention are likely to be maintained across epidemiological settings.     

Comparing epidemic tuberculosis in demographically distinct heterogeneous populations

There is wide variation in endemic tuberculosis (TB) levels between countries and we seek to identify possible causes of these differences. In this study we present an epidemiological model of Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection to investigate the effects of host genetics and demographic factors on epidemic TB. We discuss the general framework for this approach and present analytical results to identify important parameters affecting steady-state prevalence and incidence rates of TB disease. We then use numerical simulations of our model to observe the effects of a genetically susceptible subpopulation on TB disease dynamics at the population level. Finally, we simulate infection within a genetically heterogeneous population in two demographic settings: India (a typical population with high TB prevalence) and the USA (a typical population with low TB prevalence). Results show that changes in transmission parameters, the fraction of the population genetically susceptible to infection, and demographic factors strongly affect TB prevalence and incidence rates.     

The Neolithic revolution of bacterial genomes

Current human activities undoubtedly impact natural ecosystems. However, the influence of Homo sapiens on living organisms must have also occurred in the past. Certain genomic characteristics of prokaryotes can be used to study the impact of ancient human activities on microorganisms. By analyzing DNA sequence similarity features of transposable elements, dramatic genomic changes have been identified in bacteria that are associated with large and stable human communities, agriculture and animal domestication: three features unequivocally linked to the Neolithic revolution. It is hypothesized that bacteria specialized in human-associated niches underwent an intense transformation after the social and demographic changes that took place with the first Neolithic settlements. These genomic changes are absent in related species that are not specialized in humans.     

Behavioral Flexibility and the Evolution of Primate Social States

Comparative approaches to the evolution of primate social behavior have typically involved two distinct lines of inquiry. One has focused on phylogenetic analyses that treat social traits as static, species-specific characteristics; the other has focused on understanding the behavioral flexibility of particular populations or species in response to local ecological or demographic variables. Here, we combine these approaches by distinguishing between constraining traits such as dispersal regimes (male, female, or bi-sexual), which are relatively invariant, and responding traits such as grouping patterns (stable, fission-fusion, sometimes fission-fusion), which can reflect rapid adjustments to current conditions. Using long-term and cross-sectional data from 29 studies of 22 species of wild primates, we confirm that dispersal regime exhibits a strong phylogenetic signal in our sample. We then show that primate species with high variation in group size and adult sex ratios exhibit variability in grouping pattern (i.e., sometimes fission-fusion) with dispersal regime constraining the grouping response. When assessing demographic variation, we found a strong positive relationship between the variability in group size over time and the number of observation years, which further illustrates the importance of long-term demographic data to interpretations of social behavior. Our approach complements other comparative efforts to understand the role of behavioral flexibility by distinguishing between constraining and responding traits, and incorporating these distinctions into analyses of social states over evolutionary and ecological time.     

The impact of human conflict on the genetics of Mastomys natalensis and Lassa virus in West Africa

Environmental changes have been shown to play an important role in the emergence of new human diseases of zoonotic origin. The contribution of social factors to their spread, especially conflicts followed by mass movement of populations, has not been extensively investigated. Here we reveal the effects of civil war on the phylogeography of a zoonotic emerging infectious disease by concomitantly studying the population structure, evolution and demography of Lassa virus and its natural reservoir, the rodent Mastomys natalensis, in Guinea, West Africa. Analysis of nucleoprotein gene sequences enabled us to reconstruct the evolutionary history of Lassa virus, which appeared 750 to 900 years ago in Nigeria and only recently spread across western Africa (170 years ago). Bayesian demographic inferences revealed that both the host and the virus populations have gone recently through severe genetic bottlenecks. The timing of these events matches civil war-related mass movements of refugees and accompanying environmental degradation. Forest and habitat destruction and human predation of the natural reservoir are likely explanations for the sharp decline observed in the rodent populations, the consequent virus population decline, and the coincident increased incidence of Lassa fever in these regions. Interestingly, we were also able to detect a similar pattern in Nigeria coinciding with the Biafra war. Our findings show that anthropogenic factors may profoundly impact the population genetics of a virus and its reservoir within the context of an emerging infectious disease.     

Modelling the effect of urbanization on the transmission of an infectious disease

This paper models the impact of urbanization on infectious disease transmission by integrating a CA land use development model, population projection matrix model and CA epidemic model in S-Plus. The innovative feature of this model lies in both its explicit treatment of spatial land use development, demographic changes, infectious disease transmission and their combination in a dynamic, stochastic model. Heuristically-defined transition rules in cellular automata (CA) were used to capture the processes of both land use development with urban sprawl and infectious disease transmission. A population surface model and dwelling distribution surface were used to bridge the gap between urbanization and infectious disease transmission. A case study is presented involving modelling influenza transmission in Southampton, a dynamically evolving city in the UK. The simulation results for Southampton over a 30-year period show that the pattern of the average number of infection cases per day can depend on land use and demographic changes. The modelling framework presents a useful tool that may be of use in planning applications.     

Adaptive responses and disruptive effects: how major wildfire influences kinship-based social interactions in a forest marsupial

Environmental disturbance is predicted to play a key role in the evolution of animal social behaviour. This is because disturbance affects key factors underlying social systems, such as demography, resource availability and genetic structure. However, because natural disturbances are unpredictable there is little information on their effects on social behaviour in wild populations. Here, we investigated how a major wildfire affected cooperation (sharing of hollow trees) by a hollow-dependent marsupial. We based two alternative social predictions on the impacts of fire on population density, genetic structure and resources. We predicted an adaptive social response from previous work showing that kin selection in den-sharing develops as competition for den resources increases. Thus, kin selection should occur in burnt areas because the fire caused loss of the majority of hollow-bearing trees, but no detectable mortality. Alternatively, fire may have a disruptive social effect, whereby postfire home range-shifts 'neutralize' fine-scale genetic structure, thereby removing opportunities for kin selection between neighbours. Both predictions occurred: the disruptive social effect in burnt habitat and the adaptive social response in adjacent unburnt habitat. The latter followed a massive demographic influx to unburnt 'refuge' habitat that increased competition for dens, leading to a density-related kin selection response. Our results show remarkable short-term plasticity of animal social behaviour and demonstrate how the social effects of disturbance extend into undisturbed habitat owing to landscape-scale demographic shifts. We predicted long-term changes in kinship-based cooperative behaviour resulting from the genetic and resource impacts of forecast changes to fire regimes in these forests.     

Is life‐history buffering or lability adaptive in stochastic environments?

It is commonly thought that temporal fluctuations in demographic parameters should be selected against because of the deleterious impacts variation can have on fitness. A critical underpinning of this prediction is the assumption that changes in environmental conditions map linearly into changes in demographic parameters over time. We detail why this assumption may often break down and why selection should not always favor buffering of demographic parameters against environmental stochasticity. To the contrary, nonlinear relationships between the environment and demographic performance can produce asymmetric temporal variation in demographic parameters that actually enhances fitness. We extend this result to structured populations using simulation and show that 'demographic lability' rather than 'buffering' may be adaptive, particularly in organisms with low juvenile or adult survival. Finally, we review previous ecological work, and indicate cases where 'demographic lability' may be adaptive, then conclude by identifying research that is needed to develop a theory of life-history evolution that encompasses both demographic buffering and lability.     

Social systems and life‐history characteristics of mongooses

The diversity of extant carnivores provides valuable opportunities for comparative research to illuminate general patterns of mammalian social evolution. Recent field studies on mongooses (Herpestidae), in particular, have generated detailed behavioural and demographic data allowing tests of assumptions and predictions of theories of social evolution. The first studies of the social systems of their closest relatives, the Malagasy Eupleridae, also have been initiated. The literature on mongooses was last reviewed over 25 years ago. In this review, we summarise the current state of knowledge on the social organisation, mating systems and social structure (especially competition and cooperation) of the two mongoose families. Our second aim is to evaluate the contributions of these studies to a better understanding of mammalian social evolution in general. Based on published reports or anecdotal information, we can classify 16 of the 34 species of Herpestidae as solitary and nine as group‐living; there are insufficient data available for the remainder. There is a strong phylogenetic signal of sociality with permanent complex groups being limited to the genera Crossarchus, Helogale, Liberiictis, Mungos, and Suricata. Our review also indicates that studies of solitary and social mongooses have been conducted within different theoretical frameworks: whereas solitary species and transitions to gregariousness have been mainly investigated in relation to ecological determinants, the study of social patterns of highly social mongooses has instead been based on reproductive skew theory. In some group‐living species, group size and composition were found to determine reproductive competition and cooperative breeding through group augmentation. Infanticide risk and inbreeding avoidance connect social organisation and social structure with reproductive tactics and life histories, but their specific impact on mongoose sociality is still difficult to evaluate. However, the level of reproductive skew in social mongooses is not only determined by the costs and benefits of suppressing each other's breeding attempts, but also influenced by resource abundance. Thus, dispersal, as a consequence of eviction, is also linked to the costs of co‐breeding in the context of food competition. By linking these facts, we show that the socio‐ecological model and reproductive skew theory share some determinants of social patterns. We also conclude that due to their long bio‐geographical isolation and divergent selection pressures, future studies of the social systems of the Eupleridae will be of great value for the elucidation of general patterns in carnivore social evolution.     

The evolution of social philopatry in female primates

The transition from solitary life to sociality is considered one of the major transitions in evolution. In primates, this transition is currently not well understood. Traditional verbal models appear insufficient to unravel the complex interplay of environmental and demographic factors involved in the evolution of primate sociality, and recent phylogenetic reconstructions have produced conflicting results. We therefore analyze a theoretical model for the evolution of female social philopatry that sheds new light on the question why most primates live in groups. In individual-based simulations, we study the evolution of dispersal strategies of both resident females and their offspring. The model reveals that social philopatry can evolve through kin selection, even if retention of offspring is costly in terms of within-group resource competition and provides no direct benefits. Our model supports the role of predator avoidance as a selective pressure for group-living in primates, but it also suggests that a second benefit of group-living, communal resource defense, might be required to trigger the evolution of sizable groups. Lastly, our model reveals that seemingly small differences in demographic parameters can have profound effects on primate social evolution.