Kin and Child Survival in Rural Malawi

This paper investigates the impact of kin on child survival in a matrilineal society in Malawi. Women usually live in close proximity to their matrilineal kin in this agricultural community, allowing opportunities for helping behavior between matrilineal relatives. However, there is little evidence that matrilineal kin are beneficial to children. On the contrary, child mortality rates appear to be higher in the presence of maternal grandmothers and maternal aunts. These effects are modified by the sex of child and resource ownership: female children and children in households where women, rather than men, own land suffer higher mortality rates in the presence of maternal kin. These modifiers suggest the detrimental effects of matrilineal kin may result from competition between such kin for resources. There are some positive effects of kin on child survival: the presence of elder siblings of both sexes is correlated with higher survival rates, and there is some weak evidence that paternal grandmothers may be beneficial to a child’s survival chances. There is little evidence that any male kin, whether matrilineal or patrilineal, and including fathers, affect child mortality rates. This study highlights the importance of taking social and ecological context into account when investigating relationships between kin.     

Child Mortality Estimation: Accelerated Progress in Reducing Global Child Mortality, 1990–2010

Monitoring development indicators has become a central interest of international agencies and countries for tracking progress towards the Millennium Development Goals. In this review, which also provides an introduction to a collection of articles, we describe the methodology used by the United Nations Inter-agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation to track country-specific changes in the key indicator for Millennium Development Goal 4 (MDG 4), the decline of the under-five mortality rate (the probability of dying between birth and age five, also denoted in the literature as U5MR and ₅ q ₀). We review how relevant data from civil registration, sample registration, population censuses, and household surveys are compiled and assessed for United Nations member states, and how time series regression models are fitted to all points of acceptable quality to establish the trends in U5MR from which infant and neonatal mortality rates are generally derived. The application of this methodology indicates that, between 1990 and 2010, the global U5MR fell from 88 to 57 deaths per 1,000 live births, and the annual number of under-five deaths fell from 12.0 to 7.6 million. Although the annual rate of reduction in the U5MR accelerated from 1.9% for the period 1990–2000 to 2.5% for the period 2000–2010, it remains well below the 4.4% annual rate of reduction required to achieve the MDG 4 goal of a two-thirds reduction in U5MR from its 1990 value by 2015. Thus, despite progress in reducing child mortality worldwide, and an encouraging increase in the pace of decline over the last two decades, MDG 4 will not be met without greatly increasing efforts to reduce child deaths.     

Maternal and Neonatal Mortality in South-West Ethiopia: Estimates and Socio-Economic Inequality

Introduction

Ethiopia has achieved the fourth Millennium Development Goal by reducing under 5 mortality. Nevertheless, there are challenges in reducing maternal and neonatal mortality. The aim of this study was to estimate maternal and neonatal mortality and the socio-economic inequalities of these mortalities in rural south-west Ethiopia.

Methods

We visited and enumerated all households but collected data from those that reported pregnancy and birth outcomes in the last five years in 15 of the 30 rural kebeles in Bonke woreda, Gamo Gofa, south-west Ethiopia. The primary outcomes were maternal and neonatal mortality and a secondary outcome was the rate of institutional delivery.

Results

We found 11,762 births in 6572 households; 11,536 live and 226 stillbirths. There were 49 maternal deaths; yielding a maternal mortality ratio of 425 per 100,000 live births (95% CI:318–556). The poorest households had greater MMR compared to richest (550 vs 239 per 100,000 live births). However, the socio-economic factors examined did not have statistically significant association with maternal mortality. There were 308 neonatal deaths; resulting in a neonatal mortality ratio of 27 per 1000 live births (95% CI: 24–30). Neonatal mortality was greater in households in the poorest quartile compared to the richest; adjusted OR (AOR): 2.62 (95% CI: 1.65–4.15), headed by illiterates compared to better educated; AOR: 3.54 (95% CI: 1.11–11.30), far from road (≥6 km) compared to within 5 km; AOR: 2.40 (95% CI: 1.56–3.69), that had three or more births in five years compared to two or less; AOR: 3.22 (95% CI: 2.45–4.22). Households with maternal mortality had an increased risk of stillbirths; OR: 11.6 (95% CI: 6.00–22.7), and neonatal deaths; OR: 7.2 (95% CI: 3.6–14.3). Institutional delivery was only 3.7%.

Conclusion

High mortality with socio-economic inequality and low institutional delivery highlight the importance of strengthening obstetric interventions in rural south-west Ethiopia.     

Monitoring of Antiretroviral Therapy and Mortality in HIV Programmes in Malawi,South Africa and Zambia: Mathematical Modelling Study

Objectives

Mortality in patients starting antiretroviral therapy (ART) is higher in Malawi and Zambia than in South Africa. We examined whether different monitoring of ART (viral load [VL] in South Africa and CD4 count in Malawi and Zambia) could explain this mortality difference.

Design:

Mathematical modelling study based on data from ART programmes.

Methods

We used a stochastic simulation model to study the effect of VL monitoring on mortality over 5 years. In baseline scenario A all parameters were identical between strategies except for more timely and complete detection of treatment failure with VL monitoring. Additional scenarios introduced delays in switching to second-line ART (scenario B) or higher virologic failure rates (due to worse adherence) when monitoring was based on CD4 counts only (scenario C). Results are presented as relative risks (RR) with 95% prediction intervals and percent of observed mortality difference explained.

Results

RRs comparing VL with CD4 cell count monitoring were 0.94 (0.74–1.03) in scenario A, 0.94 (0.77–1.02) with delayed switching (scenario B) and 0.80 (0.44–1.07) when assuming a 3-times higher rate of failure (scenario C). The observed mortality at 3 years was 10.9% in Malawi and Zambia and 8.6% in South Africa (absolute difference 2.3%). The percentage of the mortality difference explained by VL monitoring ranged from 4% (scenario A) to 32% (scenarios B and C combined, assuming a 3-times higher failure rate). Eleven percent was explained by non-HIV related mortality.

Conclusions

VL monitoring reduces mortality moderately when assuming improved adherence and decreased failure rates.     

Child Mortality Estimation: Estimating Sex Differences in Childhood Mortality since the 1970s

Introduction

Producing estimates of infant (under age 1 y), child (age 1–4 y), and under-five (under age 5 y) mortality rates disaggregated by sex is complicated by problems with data quality and availability. Interpretation of sex differences requires nuanced analysis: girls have a biological advantage against many causes of death that may be eroded if they are disadvantaged in access to resources. Earlier studies found that girls in some regions were not experiencing the survival advantage expected at given levels of mortality. In this paper I generate new estimates of sex differences for the 1970s to the 2000s.

Methods and Findings

Simple fitting methods were applied to male-to-female ratios of infant and under-five mortality rates from vital registration, surveys, and censuses. The sex ratio estimates were used to disaggregate published series of both-sexes mortality rates that were based on a larger number of sources. In many developing countries, I found that sex ratios of mortality have changed in the same direction as historically occurred in developed countries, but typically had a lower degree of female advantage for a given level of mortality. Regional average sex ratios weighted by numbers of births were found to be highly influenced by China and India, the only countries where both infant mortality and overall under-five mortality were estimated to be higher for girls than for boys in the 2000s. For the less developed regions (comprising Africa, Asia excluding Japan, Latin America/Caribbean, and Oceania excluding Australia and New Zealand), on average, boys'' under-five mortality in the 2000s was about 2% higher than girls''. A number of countries were found to still experience higher mortality for girls than boys in the 1–4-y age group, with concentrations in southern Asia, northern Africa/western Asia, and western Africa. In the more developed regions (comprising Europe, northern America, Japan, Australia, and New Zealand), I found that the sex ratio of infant mortality peaked in the 1970s or 1980s and declined thereafter.

Conclusions

The methods developed here pinpoint regions and countries where sex differences in mortality merit closer examination to ensure that both sexes are sharing equally in access to health resources. Further study of the distribution of causes of death in different settings will aid the interpretation of differences in survival for boys and girls. Please see later in the article for the Editors'' Summary.     

Child Mortality Estimation 2013: An Overview of Updates in Estimation Methods by the United Nations Inter-Agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation

Background

In September 2013, the United Nations Inter-agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation (UN IGME) published an update of the estimates of the under-five mortality rate (U5MR) and under-five deaths for all countries. Compared to the UN IGME estimates published in 2012, updated data inputs and a new method for estimating the U5MR were used.

Methods

We summarize the new U5MR estimation method, which is a Bayesian B-spline Bias-reduction model, and highlight differences with the previously used method. Differences in UN IGME U5MR estimates as published in 2012 and those published in 2013 are presented and decomposed into differences due to the updated database and differences due to the new estimation method to explain and motivate changes in estimates.

Findings

Compared to the previously used method, the new UN IGME estimation method is based on a different trend fitting method that can track (recent) changes in U5MR more closely. The new method provides U5MR estimates that account for data quality issues. Resulting differences in U5MR point estimates between the UN IGME 2012 and 2013 publications are small for the majority of countries but greater than 10 deaths per 1,000 live births for 33 countries in 2011 and 19 countries in 1990. These differences can be explained by the updated database used, the curve fitting method as well as accounting for data quality issues. Changes in the number of deaths were less than 10% on the global level and for the majority of MDG regions.

Conclusions

The 2013 UN IGME estimates provide the most recent assessment of levels and trends in U5MR based on all available data and an improved estimation method that allows for closer-to-real-time monitoring of changes in the U5MR and takes account of data quality issues.     

Using Health Extension Workers for Monitoring Child Mortality in Real-Time: Validation against Household Survey Data in Rural Ethiopia

Background

Ethiopia has scaled up its community-based programs over the past decade by training and deploying health extension workers (HEWs) in rural communities throughout the country. Consequently, child mortality has declined substantially, placing Ethiopia among the few countries that have achieved the United Nations’ fourth Millennium Development Goal. As Ethiopia continues its efforts, results must be assessed regularly to provide timely feedback for improvement and to generate further support for programs. More specifically the expansion of HEWs at the community level provides a unique opportunity to build a system for real-time monitoring of births and deaths, linked to a civil registration and vital statistics system that Ethiopia is also developing. We tested the accuracy and completeness of births and deaths reported by trained HEWs for monitoring child mortality over 15 -month periods.

Methods and Findings

HEWs were trained in 93 randomly selected rural kebeles in Jimma and West Hararghe zones of the Oromia region to report births and deaths over a 15-month period from January, 2012 to March, 2013. Completeness of number of births and deaths, age distribution of deaths, and accuracy of resulting under-five, infant, and neonatal mortality rates were assessed against data from a large household survey with full birth history from women aged 15–49. Although, in general HEWs, were able to accurately report events that they identified, the completeness of number of births and deaths reported over twelve-month periods was very low and variable across the two zones. Compared to household survey estimates, HEWs reported only about 30% of births and 21% of under-five deaths occurring in their communities over a twelve-month period. The under-five mortality rate was under-estimated by around 30%, infant mortality rate by 23% and neonatal mortality by 17%. HEWs reported disproportionately higher number of deaths among the very young infants than among the older children.

Conclusion

Birth and death data reported by HEWs are not complete enough to support the monitoring of changes in childhood mortality. HEWs can significantly contribute to the success of a CRVS in Ethiopia, but cannot be relied upon as the sole source for identification of vital events. Further studies are needed to understand how to increase the level of completeness.     

Child Mortality Estimation: A Global Overview of Infant and Child Mortality Age Patterns in Light of New Empirical Data

Background

The under-five mortality rate (the probability of dying between birth and age 5 y, also denoted in the literature as U5MR and ₅ q ₀) is a key indicator of child health, but it conceals important information about how this mortality is distributed by age. One important distinction is what amount of the under-five mortality occurs below age 1 y (₁ q ₀) versus at age 1 y and above (₄ q ₁). However, in many country settings, this distinction is often difficult to establish because of various types of data errors. As a result, it is common practice to resort to model age patterns to estimate ₁ q ₀ and ₄ q ₁ on the basis of an observed value of ₅ q ₀. The most commonly used model age patterns for this purpose are the Coale and Demeny and the United Nations systems. Since the development of these models, many additional sources of data for under-five mortality have become available, making possible a general evaluation of age patterns of infant and child mortality. In this paper, we do a systematic comparison of empirical values of ₁ q ₀ and ₄ q ₁ against model age patterns, and discuss whether observed deviations are due to data errors, or whether they reflect true epidemiological patterns not addressed in existing model life tables.

Methods and Findings

We used vital registration data from the Human Mortality Database, sample survey data from the World Fertility Survey and Demographic and Health Surveys programs, and data from Demographic Surveillance Systems. For each of these data sources, we compared empirical combinations of ₁ q ₀ and ₄ q ₁ against combinations provided by Coale and Demeny and United Nations model age patterns. We found that, on the whole, empirical values fall relatively well within the range provided by these models, but we also found important exceptions. Sub-Saharan African countries have a tendency to exhibit high values of ₄ q ₁ relative to ₁ q ₀, a pattern that appears to arise for the most part from true epidemiological causes. While this pattern is well known in the case of western Africa, we observed that it is more widespread than commonly thought. We also found that the emergence of HIV/AIDS, while perhaps contributing to high relative values of ₄ q ₁, does not appear to have substantially modified preexisting patterns. We also identified a small number of countries scattered in different parts of the world that exhibit unusually low values of ₄ q ₁ relative to ₁ q ₀, a pattern that is not likely to arise merely from data errors. Finally, we illustrate that it is relatively common for populations to experience changes in age patterns of infant and child mortality as they experience a decline in mortality.

Conclusions

Existing models do not appear to cover the entire range of epidemiological situations and trajectories. Therefore, model life tables should be used with caution for estimating ₁ q ₀ and ₄ q ₁ on the basis of ₅ q ₀. Moreover, this model-based estimation procedure assumes that the input value of ₅ q ₀ is correct, which may not always be warranted, especially in the case of survey data. A systematic evaluation of data errors in sample surveys and their impact on age patterns of ₁ q ₀ and ₄ q ₁ is urgently needed, along with the development of model age patterns of under-five mortality that would cover a wider range of epidemiological situations and trajectories. Please see later in the article for the Editors'' Summary.     

Assessing Community Based Improved Maternal Neonatal Child Survival (IMNCS) Program in Rural Bangladesh

Objectives

A community based approach before, during and after child birth has been proven effective address the burden of maternal, neonatal and child morbidity and mortality in the low and middle income countries. We aimed to examine the overall change in maternal and newborn health outcomes due the “Improved Maternal Newborn and Child Survival” (IMNCS) project, which was implemented by BRAC in rural communities of Bangladesh.

Methods

The intervention was implemented in four districts for duration of 5-years, while two districts served as comparison areas. The intervention was delivered by community health workers who were trained on essential maternal, neonatal and child health care services. A baseline survey was conducted in 2008 among 7, 200 women with pregnancy outcome in last year or having a currently alive child of 12–59 months. A follow-up survey was administered in 2012–13 among 4, 800 women of similar characteristics in the same villages.

Findings

We observed significant improvements in maternal and essential newborn care in intervention areas over time, especially in health care seeking behaviors. The proportion of births taking place at home declined in the intervention districts from 84.3% at baseline to 71.2% at end line (P<0.001). Proportion of deliveries with skilled attendant was higher in intervention districts (28%) compared to comparison districts (27.4%). The number of deliveries was almost doubled at public sector facility comparing with baseline (P<0.001). Significant improvement was also observed in healthy cord care practice, delayed bathing of the new-born and reduction of infant mortality in intervention districts compared to that of comparison districts.

Conclusions

This study demonstrates that community-based efforts offer encouraging evidence and value for combining maternal, neonatal and child health care package. This approach might be considered at larger scale in similar settings with limited resources.     

Association between Socioeconomic Position and Tuberculosis in a Large Population-Based Study in Rural Malawi

Setting

There is increasing interest in social structural interventions for tuberculosis. The association between poverty and tuberculosis is well established in many settings, but less clear in rural Africa. In Karonga District, Malawi, we found an association between higher socioeconomic status and tuberculosis from 1986-1996, independent of HIV status and other factors.

Objective

To investigate the relationship in the same area in 1997-2010.

Design

All adults in the district with new laboratory-confirmed tuberculosis were included. They were compared with community controls, selected concurrently and frequency-matched for age, sex and area.

Results

1707 cases and 2678 controls were interviewed (response rates >95%). The odds of TB were increased in those working in the cash compared to subsistence economy (p<0.001), and with better housing (p-trend=0.006), but decreased with increased asset ownership (p-trend=0.003). The associations with occupation and housing were partly mediated by HIV status, but remained significant.

Conclusion

Different socioeconomic measures capture different pathways of the association between socioeconomic status and tuberculosis. Subsistence farmers may be relatively unexposed whereas those in the cash economy travel more, and may be more likely to come forward for diagnosis. In this setting “better houses” may be less well ventilated and residents may spend more time indoors.     

Survival Expectations of the Obese: Is Excess Mortality Reflected in Perceptions?

Objective: This study compared self‐reported subjective life expectancy (i.e., probability of living to age 75) for normal‐weight, overweight, and obese weight groups to examine whether individuals are internalizing information about the health risks due to excessive weight. Research Methods and Procedures: Using data from the Health and Retirement Study, a total of 9035 individuals 51 to 61 years old were analyzed by BMI category. The primary outcome measure was individuals’ reports about their own expectations of survival to age 75. Absolute and relative risks of survival were compared with published estimates of survival to age 75. Results: Consistently, higher levels of BMI were associated with lower self‐estimated survival probabilities. Differences relative to normal weight ranged from 4.9% (p < 0.01) for male nonsmokers to 8.8% (p < 0.001) for female nonsmokers. However, these differences were substantially less than those obtained from published survival curve estimates, suggesting that obese individuals tended to underestimate mortality risks. Discussion: Individuals appeared to underestimate the mortality risks of excessive weight; thus, knowledge campaigns about the risks of obesity should remain a top priority.     

Gender,Violence and HIV: Women's Survival in the Streets

In this article I propose that genderinequality promotes – directly or indirectly –vulnerability to HIV as a consequence of amultidimensional violence (structural, symbolicand physical) experienced by injection drugusing (IDU) women in The Mission District (SanFrancisco). Given the female subordinated positionstipulated by the street ideology, I analyzehow drug dependence afforded by precariousstrategies of subsistence places IDU womenunder multiple dangers and threats. In thissetting, unequal gender relations are part of acomplex system of transactions in the streeteconomy and a way to reduce or increase theeveryday violence. Facing multiple dangers andrisks, some women adopt a subordinatedposition, some try to negotiate the conditionsof the exchanges and the others resist theexploitation. Finally, everyday violence under conditions ofgender inequality and scarcity of resourcesimposes a logic defined by the challenge ofsurvival under the threat of immediate dangers,which transform HIV into a secondary risk.     

A Descriptive Analysis of HIV Prevalence,HIV Service Uptake,and HIV-Related Risk Behaviour among Patients Attending a Mental Health Clinic in Rural Malawi

Background

Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and mental illness are interlinked health problems; mental illness may pose a risk for contracting HIV and HIV-positive individuals are at higher risk of mental illness. However, in countries with high HIV prevalence, the main focus of HIV-related health programmes is usually on prevention and treatment of somatic complications of HIV, and mental illness is not given high priority. We examined HIV prevalence, uptake of HIV services, and HIV-related risk behaviour among people attending a mental health clinic in rural Malawi.

Methodology

Semi-structured interviews were performed with patients capable to consent (94%), and with those accompanied by a capable caregiver who consented. HIV counselling and testing was offered to participants.

Findings

Among 174 participants, we collected 162 HIV test results (91%). HIV prevalence was 14.8%. Women were three times as likely to be HIV-positive compared to men. Two-thirds of participants reported having been tested for HIV prior to this study. The uptake of HIV-services among HIV-positive patients was low: 35% did not use recommended prophylactic therapy and 44% of patients not receiving antiretroviral treatment (ART) had never been assessed for ART eligibility. The reported rate of sexual activity was 61%, and 9% of sexually active participants had multiple partners. Inconsistent condom use with stable (89%) and occasional (79%) sexual partners, and absence of knowledge of the HIV status of those partners (53%, 63%) indicate high levels of sexual risk behaviour.

Conclusions

HIV-prevalence among persons attending the clinic, particularly men, was lower than among the general population in a population survey. The rate of HIV testing was high, but there was low uptake of preventive measures and ART. This illustrates that HIV-positive individuals with mental illness or epilepsy constitute a vulnerable population. HIV programmes should include those with neuropsychiatric illness.     

Children and Wild Foods in the Context of Deforestation in Rural Malawi

There is growing recognition of the contribution of wild foods to local diets, nutrition, and culture. Yet disaggregation of understanding of wild food use by gender and age is limited. We used a mixed methods approach to determine the types, frequencies, and perceptions of wild foods used and sold by children in four villages in southern Malawi that have different levels of deforestation. Household and individual dietary diversity scores are low at all sites. All households consume one or more wild foods. Across the four sites, children listed 119 wild foods, with a wider variety at the least deforested sites than the most deforested ones. Older children can name more wild foods than younger ones. More children from poor households sell wild foods than from well-off households. Several reasons were provided for the consumption or avoidance of wild foods (most commonly taste, contribution to health, limited alternatives, hunger, availability, local taboos).     

Treatment Initiation,Program Attrition and Patient Treatment Outcomes Associated with Scale-Up and Decentralization of HIV Care in Rural Malawi

Objective

To describe patient antiretroviral therapy (cART) outcomes associated with intensive decentralization of services in a rural HIV program in Malawi.

Methods

Longitudinal analysis of data from HIV-infected patients starting cART between August 2001 and December 2008 and of a cross-sectional immunovirological assessment conducted 12 (±2) months after therapy start. One-year mortality, lost to follow-up, and attrition (deaths and lost to follow-up) rates were estimated with exact Poisson 95% confidence intervals (CI) by type of care delivery and year of initiation. Association of virological suppression (<50 copies/mL) and immunological success (CD4 gain ≥100 cells/µL), with type of care was investigated using multiple logistic regression.

Results

During the study period, 4322 cART patients received centralized care and 11,090 decentralized care. At therapy start, patients treated in decentralized health facilities had higher median CD4 count levels (167 vs. 130 cell/µL, P<0.0001) than other patients. Two years after cART start, program attrition was lower in decentralized than centralized facilities (9.9 per 100 person-years, 95% CI: 9.5–10.4 vs. 20.8 per 100 person-years, 95% CI: 19.7–22.0). One year after treatment start, differences in immunological success (adjusted OR = 1.23, 95% CI: 0.83–1.83), and viral suppression (adjusted OR = 0.80, 95% CI: 0.56–1.14) between patients followed at centralized and decentralized facilities were not statistically significant.

Conclusions

In rural Malawi, 1- and 2-year program attrition was lower in decentralized than in centralized health facilities and no statistically significant differences in one-year immunovirological outcomes were observed between the two health care levels. Longer follow-up is needed to confirm these results.     

Relationship between Body Mass Index and Mortality in HIV-Infected HAART Users in the Women's Interagency HIV Study

Background

Early HIV studies suggested protective associations of overweight against mortality, yet data are lacking for the era of potent highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART). We evaluated associations of pre-HAART initiation body mass index (BMI) with mortality among HAART-using women.

Methods

Prospective study of time to death after HAART initiation among continuous HAART users in the Women’s Interagency HIV Study. Unadjusted Kaplan–Meier and adjusted proportional hazards survival models assessed time to AIDS and non-AIDS death by last measured pre-HAART BMI.

Results

Of 1428 continuous HAART users 39 (2.7%) were underweight, 521 (36.5%) normal weight, 441 (30.9%) overweight, and 427 (29.9%) obese at time of HAART initiation. A total of 322 deaths occurred during median follow-up of 10.4 years (IQR 5.9–14.6). Censoring at non-AIDS death, the highest rate of AIDS death was observed among underweight women (p = 0.0003 for all 4 categories). In multivariate models, women underweight prior to HAART died from AIDS more than twice as rapidly vs. normal weight women (aHR 2.04, 95% CI 1.03, 4.04); but being overweight or obese (vs. normal weight) was not independently associated with AIDS death. Cumulative incidence of non-AIDS death was similar across all pre-HAART BMI categories.

Conclusions

Among continuous HAART-using women, being overweight prior to initiation was not associated with lower risk of AIDS or non-AIDS death. Being underweight prior to HAART was associated with over double the rate of AIDS death in adjusted analyses. Although overweight and obesity may be associated with many adverse health conditions, neither was predictive of mortality among the HAART-using women.     

Child Mortality Estimation: Methods Used to Adjust for Bias due to AIDS in Estimating Trends in Under-Five Mortality

In most low- and middle-income countries, child mortality is estimated from data provided by mothers concerning the survival of their children using methods that assume no correlation between the mortality risks of the mothers and those of their children. This assumption is not valid for populations with generalized HIV epidemics, however, and in this review, we show how the United Nations Inter-agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation (UN IGME) uses a cohort component projection model to correct for AIDS-related biases in the data used to estimate trends in under-five mortality. In this model, births in a given year are identified as occurring to HIV-positive or HIV-negative mothers, the lives of the infants and mothers are projected forward using survivorship probabilities to estimate survivors at the time of a given survey, and the extent to which excess mortality of children goes unreported because of the deaths of HIV-infected mothers prior to the survey is calculated. Estimates from the survey for past periods can then be adjusted for the estimated bias. The extent of the AIDS-related bias depends crucially on the dynamics of the HIV epidemic, on the length of time before the survey that the estimates are made for, and on the underlying non-AIDS child mortality. This simple methodology (which does not take into account the use of effective antiretroviral interventions) gives results qualitatively similar to those of other studies.     

Socio-Economic Inequalities in Survival of Patients with Prostate Cancer: Role of Age and Gleason Grade at Diagnosis

In the United Kingdom, survival of prostate cancer patients has improved since the 1990s. A deprivation gap in survival (better survival for the least deprived compared with the most deprived) has been reported but it is not known if differential distribution of earlier age or lower grade disease at diagnosis might explain such patterns. We therefore investigated the impact of age and Gleason grade at diagnosis on the deprivation gap in survival of prostate cancer patients over time. Incident cases of prostate cancer (ICD-10 C61) from the West of Scotland were extracted from the Scottish Cancer Registry from 1991 to 2007. Socio-economic circumstances were measured using the Scottish Index for Multiple Deprivation 2004 (SIMD). Age and deprivation specific mortality rates were obtained from the General Registrar Office for Scotland (GRO(S)). The survival gradient across the five deprivation categories was estimated with linear regression, weighted by the variance of the relative survival estimate. We examined the data for 15,292 adults diagnosed with prostate cancer between 1991 and 2007. Despite substantial improvements in survival of prostate cancer patients, a deprivation gap persists throughout the three periods of diagnoses. The deprivation gap in five year relative survival widened from −4.76 in 1991–1996 to −10.08 in 2003–2007. On age and grade-specific analyses, a significant deprivation gap in five year survival existed between all age groups except among patients'' age ≥75 and both low and high grade disease. On multivariate analyses, deprivation was significantly associated with increased excess risk of death (RER 1.48, 95% CI 1.31–1.68, p-value<0.001) independent of age, Gleason grade and period of diagnosis. The deprivation gap in survival from prostate cancer cannot be wholly explained by socio-economic differentials in early detection of disease. Further research is needed to understand whether differences in comorbidities or treatment explain inequalities in prostate cancer outcomes.